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Paralytic Ileus (PI) patients in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) face a significant risk of death. Current predictive models for PI are often complex and rely on many variables, resulting in unreliable outcomes for such a serious health condition. Predicting mortality in ICU patients with PI is particularly challenging due to the vast amount of data and numerous features involved. To address this issue, a deep-learning predictive framework was developed using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) dataset, which includes data from 1017 ICU patients with PI. By employing SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis, we were able to narrow down the features to six distinct clinical lab items. The proposed framework, called DLMP (Deep Learning Model for Mortality Prediction of ICU Patients with PI), utilizes these six unique clinical lab items: Anion gap, Platelet, PTT, BUN, Total Bilirubin, and Bicarbonate, along with one demographic variable as inputs to a neural network consisting of only two neuron layers. DLMP achieved an outstanding prediction performance with an AUC score of 0.887, outperforming existing predictive models for ICU patients with PI. The DLMP framework significantly enhances the prediction of mortality for PI patients compared to traditional process mining and machine learning models. This model holds considerable potential for prognosis, enabling families to be better informed about the severity of a patient’s condition and to prepare accordingly. Furthermore, the model is valuable for research purposes and clinical trials.

Prediction of the next event is important for organizations to improve and optimize their system process to achieve organizational goals. Existing predictive models are limited since they use discovery algorithms that might not be able to conserve the sequences of events as reported in the event log. Discovery algorithms alter the sequence of events in two ways, either the algorithms generate an additional sequence of events not found in the event logs or remove the order of events. Since prediction relies on these process algorithms, the prediction model can suffer and produce underperforming results. Models that do not use discovery algorithms, such as deep learning models, ignore completely the sequence of events. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new algorithm called AXDP (Adjacency Matrix Deep Learning Prediction Model). AXDP predicts the next event of a process using graph theory techniques, specifically adjacency matrices and predicts using the power of deep learning models. AXDP has a major advantage, in that sequence of events is conserved, resulting in better prediction of the next event. When testing AXDP on eight publicly available datasets, AXDP outperforms what we believe to be the most recent and best predictive models that exist for the prediction of the next event for six of the eight datasets.

Abstract Background A growing body of research has shown that machine learning (ML) can be a useful tool to predict how different variable combinations affect out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) survival outcomes. However, there remain significant research gaps on the utilization of ML models for decision-making and their impact on survival outcomes. The purpose of this study was to develop ML models that effectively predict hospital’s practice to perform coronary angiography (CA) in adult patients after OHCA and subsequent neurologic outcomes. Methods We utilized all (N = 2398) patients treated by the Chicago Fire Department Emergency Medical Services included in the Cardiac Arrest Registry to Enhance Survival (CARES) between 2013 and 2018 who survived to hospital admission to develop, test, and analyze ML models for decisions after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and patient survival. ML classification models, including the Embedded Fully Convolutional Network (EFCN) model, were compared based on their ability to predict post-ROSC decisions and survival. Results The EFCN classification model achieved the best results across tested ML algorithms. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for CA and Survival were 0.908 and 0.896 respectively. Through cohort analyses, our model predicts that 18.3% (CI 16.4–20.2) of patients should receive a CA that did not originally, and 30.1% (CI 28.5–31.7) of these would experience improved survival outcomes. Conclusion ML modeling effectively predicted hospital decisions and neurologic outcomes. ML modeling may serve as a quality improvement tool to inform system level OHCA policies and treatment protocols.

Process mining is the discipline of analyzing and improving processes which are known as an event log. The real-life event log contains noise, infrequent behaviors, and numerous concurrency, in effect the generated process model through process discovery algorithms will be inefficient and complex. Shortcomings in an event log result in current process discovery algorithms failing to pre-process data and describe real-life phenomena. Existing process mining algorithms are limited based on the algorithm’s filtering, parameters, and pre-defined features. It is critical to use a high-quality event log to generate a robust process model. However, pre-processing of the event log is mostly cumbersome and is a challenging procedure. In this paper, we propose a novel pre-processing step aimed to obtain superior quality event log from a set of raw data, consequently a better performing process model. The proposed approach concatenates events which hold concurrent relations based on a probability algorithm, producing simpler and accurate process models. This proposed pre-processing step is based on the probability of the frequency of concurrent events. The performance of the pre-processing approach is evaluated on 18 real-life benchmark datasets that are publicly available. We show that the proposed pre-processing framework significantly reduces the complexity of the process model and improves the model’s F-Measure.

Abstract Background Many models are published which predict outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The generalizability of many is unknown. We evaluated the performance of selected models from the literature and our own models to predict outcomes in patients at our institution. Methods We searched the literature for models predicting outcomes in inpatients with COVID-19. We produced models of mortality or criticality (mortality or ICU admission) in a development cohort. We tested external models which provided sufficient information and our models using a test cohort of our most recent patients. The performance of models was compared using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC). Results Our literature review yielded 41 papers. Of those, 8 were found to have sufficient documentation and concordance with features available in our cohort to implement in our test cohort. All models were from Chinese patients. One model predicted criticality and seven mortality. Tested against the test cohort, internal models had an AUC of 0.84 (0.74–0.94) for mortality and 0.83 (0.76–0.90) for criticality. The best external model had an AUC of 0.89 (0.82–0.96) using three variables, another an AUC of 0.84 (0.78–0.91) using ten variables. AUC’s ranged from 0.68 to 0.89. On average, models tested were unable to produce predictions in 27% of patients due to missing lab data. Conclusion Despite differences in pandemic timeline, race, and socio-cultural healthcare context some models derived in China performed well. For healthcare organizations considering implementation of an external model, concordance between the features used in the model and features available in their own patients may be important. Analysis of both local and external models should be done to help decide on what prediction method is used to provide clinical decision support to clinicians treating COVID-19 patients as well as what lab tests should be included in order sets.

In recent years, many research studies have focused on personalized e-learning. One of the most crucial parts of any learning environment is having a learning style that focuses on individual learning. In this paper, we propose an approach to personalizing learning resources based on students’ learning styles in a virtual learning environment to enhance their academic performance. Students’ interactions with the learning management system are utilized to analyze learners’ behaviors. The Felder–Silverman Learning Style Model (FSLSM) is used to map students’ interactions with online learning resources to learning style (LS) features. The learning style and demographic features are then utilized for training machine learning models to predict students’ academic performance in each quarter of courses. The most accurate prediction model for each quarter is then used to find learning style features that maximize students’ pass rates. We statistically prove that students whose actual learning style features were close enough to the ones calculated by the approach achieved better grades. To improve students’ academic performance each quarter, we suggest two strategies based on the learning style features calculated by the process.

In process mining, process models are extracted from event logs using process discovery algorithms and are commonly assessed using multiple quality metrics. While the metrics that measure the relationship of an extracted process model to its event log are well-studied, quantifying the level by which a process model can describe the unobserved behavior of its underlying system falls short in the literature. In this paper, a novel deep learning-based methodology called Adversarial System Variant Approximation (AVATAR) is proposed to overcome this issue. Sequence Generative Adversarial Networks are trained on the variants contained in an event log with the intention to approximate the underlying variant distribution of the system behavior. Unobserved realistic variants are sampled either directly from the Sequence Generative Adversarial Network or by leveraging the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The degree by which a process model relates to its underlying unknown system behavior is then quantified based on the realistic observed and estimated unobserved variants using established process model quality metrics. Significant performance improvements in revealing realistic unobserved variants are demonstrated in a controlled experiment on 15 ground truth systems. Additionally, the proposed methodology is experimentally tested and evaluated to quantify the generalization of 60 discovered process models with respect to their systems.

In complex processes, various events can happen in different sequences. The prediction of the next event given an a-priori process state is of importance in such processes. Recent methods have proposed deep learning techniques such as recurrent neural networks, developed on raw event logs, to predict the next event from a process state. However, such deep learning models by themselves lack a clear representation of the process states. At the same time, recent methods have neglected the time feature of event instances. In this paper, we take advantage of Petri nets as a powerful tool in modeling complex process behaviors considering time as an elemental variable. We propose an approach which starts from a Petri net process model constructed by a process mining algorithm. We enhance the Petri net model with time decay functions to create continuous process state samples. Finally, we use these samples in combination with discrete token movement counters and Petri net markings to train a deep learning model that predicts the next event. We demonstrate significant performance improvements and outperform the state-of-the-art methods on nine real-world benchmark event logs.

Long short-term memory fully convolutional neural networks (LSTM-FCNs) and Attention LSTM-FCN (ALSTM-FCN) have shown to achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the task of classifying time series signals on the old University of California-Riverside (UCR) time series repository. However, there has been no study on why LSTM-FCN and ALSTM-FCN perform well. In this paper, we perform a series of ablation tests (3627 experiments) on the LSTM-FCN and ALSTM-FCN to provide a better understanding of the model and each of its sub-modules. The results from the ablation tests on the ALSTM-FCN and LSTM-FCN show that the LSTM and the FCN blocks perform better when applied in a conjoined manner. Two z-normalizing techniques, z-normalizing each sample independently and z-normalizing the whole dataset, are compared using a Wilcoxson signed-rank test to show a statistical difference in performance. In addition, we provide an understanding of the impact dimension shuffle that has on LSTM-FCN by comparing its performance with LSTM-FCN when no dimension shuffle is applied. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the LSTM-FCN when the LSTM block is replaced by a gated recurrent unit (GRU), basic neural network (RNN), and dense block.

The COVID-19 pandemic has enforced higher education institutions to adopt emergency remote teaching (ERT) as the substitution for traditional face-to-face (F2F) classes. A lot of concerns have been raised among education institutions, faculty, and students regarding the effectiveness of this sudden shift to online learning. This study aims to statistically investigate the impacts of such a transition on the academic performance of undergraduate students enrolled in the Financial Engineering course. A novel rank percentage measure is proposed and employed to compare the academic performance of around 500 students who attended the course during the four semesters, including the transitional disrupted semester by the pandemic, two consecutive online semesters, and the traditional face-to-face classroom. Our analysis emphasizes the significance of the differences between specific subgroups of the students. In particular, academically average to good students with cumulative GPAs greater than 2.90 have been negatively impacted by the transition to online learning, whereas the results for students with cumulative GPAs less than 2.90 are not very conclusive. Realizing the effects of such closures on the academic performance of students is considered important, since the results might have some merits for other courses and instructors. The template model can be transferred to other courses, and employed by the university administrators, specifically for developing policies in emergency circumstances that are not limited to pandemics.

Fully convolutional neural networks (FCNs) have been shown to achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the task of classifying time series sequences. We propose the augmentation of fully convolutional networks with long short term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM RNN) sub-modules for time series classification. Our proposed models significantly enhance the performance of fully convolutional networks with a nominal increase in model size and require minimal preprocessing of the data set. The proposed long short term memory fully convolutional network (LSTM-FCN) achieves the state-of-the-art performance compared with others. We also explore the usage of attention mechanism to improve time series classification with the attention long short term memory fully convolutional network (ALSTM-FCN). The attention mechanism allows one to visualize the decision process of the LSTM cell. Furthermore, we propose refinement as a method to enhance the performance of trained models. An overall analysis of the performance of our model is provided and compared with other techniques.