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The objective of science is to understand the natural world; we argue that prediction is the only way to demonstrate scientific understanding, implying that prediction should be a fundamental aspect of all scientific disciplines. Reproducibility is an essential requirement of good science and arises from the ability to develop models that make accurate predictions on new data. Ecology, however, with a few exceptions, has abandoned prediction as a central focus and faces its own crisis of reproducibility. Models are where ecological understanding is stored and they are the source of all predictions - no prediction is possible without a model of the world. Models can be improved in three ways: model variables, functional relationships among dependent and independent variables, and in parameter estimates. Ecologists rarely test to assess whether new models have made advances by identifying new and important variables, elucidating functional relationships, or improving parameter estimates. Without these tests it is difficult to know if we understand more today than we did yesterday. A new commitment to prediction in ecology would lead to, among other things, more mature (i.e. quantitative) hypotheses, prioritization of modeling techniques that are more appropriate for prediction (e.g. using continuous independent variables rather than categorical) and, ultimately, advancement towards a more general understanding of the natural world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many environments are undergoing rapid environmental change and there is a need to understand the mechanisms by which species can persist in altered environments. Model systems, such as amphibian metamorphosis, which can be generalized across many types of environmental change and across many species, are a powerful tool for understanding mechanisms that facilitate persistence in altered and disturbed environments. Amphibian larvae respond to environmental change by varying age at metamorphosis, or size at metamorphosis. Differential selection pressures on age or size at metamorphosis may result in a differential response among taxa to environmental change. Using a meta-analysis, we investigated whether age at metamorphosis, size at metamorphosis, and larval growth rate vary within and among taxonomic families of amphibians in experiments that modified the environmental temperature, density of individuals, food, hydroperiod and the presence of predators. For all environmental factors except predators, the direction of the response was consistent across most of the studied taxa. However, there was considerable variation in effect size both within and among families. Results demonstrate that amphibian metamorphosis is a valuable model system for studying the effects of environmental change. Yet, we stress the need for caution in making generalizations about how individuals respond to environmental factors that have an indirect effect on physiology and require the perception of an environmental cue, such as the presence of predators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many populations normally experience high levels of mortality throughout larval development, but this is generally overlooked with laboratory experimental protocols. Evidence suggests that mortality is nonrandom in natural tadpole populations, so high survivorship, typical of laboratory populations, may poorly represent populations in nature. We compared survival, growth and development, and population variance of tadpoles in natural ponds with those in the laboratory at low and high densities. In the laboratory, high-density groups were reared with no selection and with selection imposed against different size classes to identify if, and how, mortality influences natural tadpole populations and to investigate whether imposing selection against certain size classes produces responses more consistent with those observed in natural systems. Our results suggest that selective mortality removes smaller individuals in natural populations. We demonstrate that introducing selection against small individuals artificially, in the laboratory, results in individual growth and development, population variance, and statistical power that more closely resembles that observed in natural populations. This is important from an ecological perspective because it demonstrates how selection acts on natural tadpole populations. More importantly, this demonstrates that laboratory experiments can be designed to provide better qualitative estimates for responses of natural populations by considering and simulating natural rates of mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here, we examine the effects of adjacent land use in a managed forest on pond-breeding amphibian species richness and community composition at 34 New Brunswick, Canada, ponds. Amphibian species richness was negatively correlated with the proportion of roads, precommercial thinning, and hardwood forest and positively correlated with the proportion of wetlands in adjacent lands. These land-use effects peak at 180 m from the ponds. Road density was negatively correlated with and presence. Precommercial thinning was negatively correlated with spp. presence and positively correlated with presence. Wetlands were positively correlated with L. septentrionalis and presence. Correlations were also found between water table height and A. americanus, , and Ambystoma spp. presence. In addition, L. catesbeiana and N. viridescens presence-absence was positively correlated with the proportion of mature and overmature forest on the landscape (at scales of 500 and 1000 m, respectively). Lastly, the proportion of regenerating and sapling forest on the landscape was negatively correlated with L. palustris presence-absence but, by contrast, was positively correlated with A. americanus. These results suggest that the effects of adjacent land use may significantly impact amphibian populations in managed eastern Canadian forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species are a major threat to global biodiversity and an important cause of biotic homogenization of ecosystems. Exotic plants have been identified as a particular concern because of the widely held belief that they competitively exclude native plant species. We examined the correlation between native and invasive species richness in 58 Ontario inland wetlands. The relationship between exotic and native species richness was positive even when we controlled for important covarying factors. In addition, we examined the relationship between the abundance of four native species ( Typha latifolia, T. angustifolia, Salix petiolaris, Nuphar variegatum ) and four invasive species ( Lythrum salicaria, Hydrocharis morsus-ranae, Phalaris arundinacea, Rhamnus frangula ) that often dominate temperate wetlands and native and rare native species richness. Exotic species were no more likely to dominate a wetland than native species, and the proportion of dominant exotic species that had a significant negative effect on the native plant community was the same as the proportion of native species with a significant negative effect. We conclude that the key to conservation of inland wetland biodiversity is to discourage the spread of community dominants, regardless of geographical origin. Las especies invasoras son una amenaza mayor para la biodiversidad global y una causa importante de la homogenización biótica de ecosistemas. Las plantas exóticas son de particular preocupación por la amplia creencia de que excluyen competitivamente a especies de plantas nativas. Examinamos la correlación entre la riqueza de especies nativas e invasoras en 58 humedales interiores en Ontario. La relación entre riqueza de especies exóticas y nativas fue positiva aún cuando controlamos importantes factores covariantes. Adicionalmente, examinamos la relación entre la abundancia de cuatro especies nativas (Typha latifolia, T. angustifolia, Salix petiolaris, Nuphar variegatum ) y cuatro exóticas (Lythrum salicaria, Hydrocharis morsus-ranae, Phalaris arundinacea, and Rhamnus frangula ) que a menudo son dominantes en humedales templados y la riqueza de especies nativas y nativas raras. Las especies exóticas no tuvieron mayor probabilidad de dominar un humedal que las especies nativas y la proporción de especies exóticas dominantes que tuvieron efecto negativo significativo sobre la comunidad de plantas nativas fue la misma que la proporción de especies nativas con efecto negativo significativo. Concluimos que la clave para la conservación de la biodiversidad de humedales interiores es evitar la dispersión de dominantes en la comunidad, independientemente de su origen geográfico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat destruction and fragmentation have been identified as possible causes of large-scale amphibian declines. Here, we examine the effects of adjacent land use and water quality on wetland amphibian species richness, abundance, and community composition in 74 Ontario wetlands. Species richness was positively correlated with wetland area, forest cover, and the amount of wetlands on adjacent lands and negatively correlated with road density and nitrogen levels. The land-use effects peak at 2000–3000 m. Amphibian abundance was positively correlated with forest cover, distance to wetlands >20 ha, and amount of marsh habitat and negatively correlated with road density. The effects of adjacent land use were strongest at around 200 m. Land-use and water quality effects varied widely across species, although most species are positively correlated with forest cover and amount of wetlands on adjacent lands and negatively correlated with road density and water quality. These results suggest that the effects of adjacent land use on amphibian communities can extend over comparatively large distances. As such, effective wetland conservation will not be achieved merely through the creation of narrow buffer zones between wetlands and intensive land uses, but rather will require maintaining a heterogeneous regional landscape containing relatively large areas of natural forest and wetlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the quantitative evidence for the global amphibian population declines using data from 936 populations. Negative amphibian population trends in western Europe and North America; Geographical and temporal variability of the declines.

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article "On theory in ecology" by P. A. Marquet and colleagues in the 2014 issue.

Kejimkujik National Park and National Historic Site, Nova Scotia, Canada, is considered a biological mercury (Hg) hotspot because the tissues of yellow perch ( Perca flavescens) and common loons ( Gavia immer) inhabiting the lakes frequently exceed so-called safe levels of Hg. In the present study, the relationships between Hg and overall health of males and females of 3 forage fish species (brown bullhead Ameirus nebulosus, banded killifish Fundulus diaphanus, and golden shiner Notemigonus crysoleucas; n = 6-18/sex/lake) in 6 lakes at the park were assessed using condition factor, liversomatic index (LSI), and macrophage aggregates (MAs; indicators of tissue damage). Mean muscle total Hg (THg) concentrations of brown bullhead, banded killifish, and golden shiner across lakes were 0.32 μg/g, 0.27 μg/g, and 0.34 μg/g, respectively. Condition was negatively related to muscle THg in golden shiner and banded killifish, LSI was not related to THg in any species, and all species showed evidence of increasing MA prevalence (counts and area) with increasing THg concentrations. The MAs were most prevalent in spleen tissues of golden shiner, with mean percentage cover ranging from 0.36% to 5.59% across lakes. In addition, the area of MAs appeared to be better predicted by THg concentration than was the number of MAs in the same tissue. These findings suggest that Hg is affecting the health of wild fishes in Kejimkujik National Park and National Historic Site and that other populations with similar or higher concentrations of this metal may also be at risk. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:976-987. © 2016 SETAC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Laboratory and mesocosm experiments have demonstrated that some glyphosate-based herbicides can have negative effects on benthic invertebrate species. Although these herbicides are among the most widely used in agriculture, there have been few multiple-stressor, natural system-based investigations of the impacts of glyphosate-based herbicides in combination with fertilizers on the emergence patterns of chironomids from wetlands. Using a replicated, split-wetland experiment, the authors examined the effects of 2 nominal concentrations (2.88 mg acid equivalents/L and 0.21 mg acid equivalents/L) of the glyphosate herbicide Roundup WeatherMax, alone or in combination with nutrient additions, on the emergence of Chironomidae (Diptera) before and after herbicide-induced damage to macrophytes. There were no direct effects of treatment on the structure of the Chironomidae community or on the overall emergence rates. However, after macrophyte cover declined as a result of herbicide application, there were statistically significant increases in emergence in all but the highest herbicide treatment, which had also received no nutrients. There was a negative relationship between chironomid abundance and macrophyte cover on the treated sides of wetlands. Fertilizer application did not appear to compound the effects of the herbicide treatments. Although direct toxicity of Roundup WeatherMax was not apparent, the authors observed longer-term impacts, suggesting that the indirect effects of this herbicide deserve more consideration when assessing the ecological risk of using herbicides in proximity to wetlands. Environ Toxicol Chem 2014; 33:2076-2085. © 2014 SETAC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting optimal significance levels that minimize Type I and Type II errors allows for more transparent and well-considered statistical decision making compared to the traditional α = 0.05 significance level. We use the optimal α approach to re-assess conclusions reached by three recently published tests of the pace-of-life syndrome hypothesis, which attempts to unify occurrences of different physiological, behavioral, and life history characteristics under one theory, over different scales of biological organization. While some of the conclusions reached using optimal α were consistent to those previously reported using the traditional α = 0.05 threshold, opposing conclusions were also frequently reached. The optimal α approach reduced probabilities of Type I and Type II errors, and ensured statistical significance was associated with biological relevance. Biologists should seriously consider their choice of α when conducting null hypothesis significance tests, as there are serious disadvantages with consistent reliance on the traditional but arbitrary α = 0.05 significance level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd ), is widespread among amphibians in northeastern North America. It is unknown, however, whether Bd has the potential to cause extensive amphibian mortalities in northeastern North America as have occurred elsewhere. In the laboratory, we exposed seven common northeastern North American amphibian species to Bd to assess the likelihood of population-level effects from the disease. We exposed larval wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus ) and postmetamorphic frogs of six other species to two different strains of Bd, a northeastern strain (JEL404) and a strain that caused die-offs of amphibians in Panama (JEL423), under ideal in vitro growth conditions for Bd . Exposed American toads (Anaxyrus americanus ) all died; thus, this species may be the most likely to die from Bd -caused disease in the wild. Both Bd strains were associated with mortalities of wood frogs, although half the metamorphs survived. The Bd strain from Panama killed metamorphic green frogs (L. clamitans ), whereas the northeastern strain did not, which means novel strains of Bd may lead to death even when local strains may not. No mortality was observed in four species (bullfrogs [L. catesbeianus ], northern leopard frogs [L. pipiens ], spring peepers [Pseudacris crucifer ], and blue-spotted salamanders [Ambystoma laterale ]) and in some individuals of green frogs and wood frogs that we exposed. This finding suggests these six species may be Bd vectors. Our results show that systematic exposures of amphibian species to Bd in the laboratory may be a good first step in the identification of species susceptible to Bd -caused declines and in directing regional conservation efforts aimed at susceptible species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Herbicides are commonly used in agriculture and silviculture to reduce interspecific competition among plants and thereby enhance crop growth, quality, and volume. Internationally, formulations of glyphosate-based herbicides are the most widely used herbicides in both these sectors. A large amount of work has focused on the effects of these herbicides on amphibians. Several laboratory and mesocosm studies have demonstrated that various formulations of glyphosate herbicides can be acutely toxic to larval and juvenile amphibians at concentrations at the upper end of environmental realism. However, to date there has been little work done investigating such effects in natural systems, limited work on juvenile amphibians, and only a few studies have investigated interactions with other stressors. We conducted a 16day field experiment in which juveniles of two amphibian species (Lithobates clamitans and Lithobates pipiens) were exposed to the herbicide Roundup WeatherMax™ at four application rates (0, 2.16, 4.32 and 8.64kg a.e./ha) to investigate effects on survival, liver somatic index (LSI), body condition, and incidence of disease caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). In a separate 16day laboratory experiment, we exposed juvenile L. clamitans to both the herbicide and Bd. Results of our studies showed that this particular herbicide formulation had no effect on juvenile survival, LSI, body condition, or disease incidence, nor was there an interaction between exposure to herbicide and exposure to the disease in tests which closely mimic real world exposure scenarios. These experiments suggest that Roundup WeatherMax as typically used in agriculture is unlikely to cause significant deleterious effects on juvenile amphibians under real world exposure conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Herbicides are commonly used in agriculture and silviculture to reduce interspecific competition among plants and thereby enhance crop growth, quality, and volume. Internationally, glyphosate-based herbicides are the most widely used herbicides in both of these sectors. Laboratory and mesocosm studies have demonstrated that some formulations are toxic to amphibian larvae below concentrations that approximate predicted maximal or 'worst-case' exposure scenarios. However, field studies have not found evidence of toxicity at these concentrations. The authors conducted a replicated field experiment involving 10 naturalized wetlands split in half with an impermeable plastic barrier to assess the direct toxicity of a glyphosate formulation commonly used in silviculture (VisionMAX™). The herbicide formulation was applied directly to the surface of one side of each wetland at one of two target aqueous exposure rates (high = 2,880, low = 550 µg acid equivalents [a.e.]/L), and the other side was left as an untreated control. The survival and growth of green frog larvae ( Lithobates clamitans) were assessed for two years following herbicide treatment. The herbicide did not have a negative impact on survival or growth of L. clamitans larvae at either treatment level. In fact, mean larval abundance was typically greater in the treated sides than in control sides within the year of herbicide application. These results indicate that typical silviculture use of VisionMAX poses negligible risk to larval amphibians, likely because the combined effects of sorption and degradation in natural wetlands limit the exposure magnitude and duration. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2012; 31: 2375-2383. © 2012 SETAC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the traditional α = 0.05 significance level for null hypothesis significance tests makes assumptions about relative costs of Type I vs relevant Type II errors and inflates their combined probabilities. We have examined the results of 1254 monitoring tests conducted under the Canadian Environmental Effects Monitoring (EEM) program from 1992 to 2003, focusing on how the choice of α affected the relative probabilities and implied costs of Type I and Type II errors. Using α = 0.05 resulted in implied relative costs of Type I vs Type II errors that were both inconsistent among monitoring end points and also inconsistent with the philosophy of the monitoring program. Using α = 0.05 also resulted in combinations of Type I and II error that were 15-17% larger than those for "optimal" α levels set to minimize Type I and II errors for each study, and 12% of all monitoring tests would have reached opposite conclusions had they used these optimal α levels for decision-making. Thus, if the Canadian EEM program used study-specific optimal α levels, they would reduce the incidence of relevant errors and eliminate inconsistent implied relative costs of these errors. Environmental research and monitoring programs using α = 0.05 as a decision-making threshold should re-evaluate the usefulness of this "one-size-fits-all" approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Null hypothesis significance testing has been under attack in recent years, partly owing to the arbitrary nature of setting a (the decision-making threshold and probability of Type I error) at a constant value, usually 0.05. If the goal of null hypothesis testing is to present conclusions in which we have the highest possible confidence, then the only logical decision-making threshold is the value that minimizes the probability (or occasionally, cost) of making errors. Setting α to minimize the combination of Type I and Type II error at a critical effect size can easily be accomplished for traditional statistical tests by calculating the α associated with the minimum average of α and β at the critical effect size. This technique also has the flexibility to incorporate prior probabilities of null and alternate hypotheses and/or relative costs of Type I and Type II errors, if known. Using an optimal α results in stronger scientific inferences because it estimates and minimizes both Type I errors and relevant Type II errors for a test. It also results in greater transparency concerning assumptions about relevant effect size(s) and the relative costs of Type I and II errors. By contrast, the use of α = 0.05 results in arbitrary decisions about what effect sizes will likely be considered significant, if real, and results in arbitrary amounts of Type II error for meaningful potential effect sizes. We cannot identify a rationale for continuing to arbitrarily use α = 0.05 for null hypothesis significance tests in any field, when it is possible to determine an optimal α. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the documented negative effects of roads on wildlife, ecological research on road effects has had comparatively little influence on road planning decisions. We argue that road research would have a larger impact if researchers carefully considered the relevance of the research questions addressed and the inferential strength of the studies undertaken. At a workshop at the German castle of Rauischholzhausen we identified five particularly relevant questions, which we suggest provide the framework for a research agenda for road ecology: (1) Under what circumstances do roads affect population persistence? (2) What is the relative importance of road effects vs. other effects on population persistence? (3) Under what circumstances can road effects be mitigated? (4) What is the relative importance of the different mechanisms by which roads affect population persistence? (5) Under what circumstances do road networks affect population persistence at the landscape scale? We recommend experimental designs that maximize inferential strength, given existing constraints, and we provide hypothetical examples of such experiments for each of the five research questions. In general, manipulative experiments have higher inferential strength than do nonmanipulative experiments, and full before-after-control-impact designs are preferable to before-after or control-impact designs. Finally, we argue that both scientists and planners must be aware of the limits to inferential strength that exist for a given research question in a given situation. In particular, when the maximum inferential strength of any feasible design is low, decision makers must not demand stronger evidence before incorporating research results into the planning process, even though the level of uncertainty may be high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The direct effects of large-scale disturbances are readily studied because their effects are often apparent and result in large changes to ecosystems. Direct effects can cascade through the ecosystem, leading to indirect effects that are often subtle and difficult to detect. Managing anthropogenic disturbances, such as chemical contamination, requires an understanding of both direct and indirect effects to predict, measure, and characterize the impact. Using a replicated whole-ecosystem experiment and path analyses (assesses the effects of a set of variables on a specified outcome, similar to multiple regression), we examined the direct and indirect effects of a glyphosate-based herbicide and nutrient enrichment on wetland communities. The latter did not impact any measured endpoints. The strongest drivers of macrophyte, benthic invertebrate, and amphibian assemblages were the ephemerality and the size of wetlands, factors which were not altered by herbicide applications. The herbicide had a direct negative effect on macrophyte cover, amphibian larval abundance, and the proportion of predatory benthic invertebrates. However, both amphibians and invertebrates were positively affected by the reduction in the macrophyte cover caused by the herbicide applications. The opposing directions of the direct and indirect effects lead to no net change in either group. The compensatory dynamics observed herein highlight the need for a better understanding of indirect effects pathways to determine whether common anthropogenic disturbances alter the ecological communities in small wetland ecosystems. Unlabelled Image • Glyphosate application has a direct negative effect on wetland macrophyte cover. • The indirect effect of macrophyte reduction on the amphibian and benthic invertebrate communities opposed the direct effect. • Compensatory dynamics make it difficult to determine the overall effects of chemical contamination on wetland communities. • Natural variation in abiotic environmental factors has a greater effect on wetland communities than herbicide application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzes a study which examined the means of trends for global amphibian population declines during the 1950s and 1960s. Application of the least-squares mean to estimate the annual mean global decline in amphibian population; Factors that contributed to amphibian population declines.