1. Forecasting Industrial Aging Processes with Machine Learning Methods
- Author
-
Bogojeski, Mihail, Sauer, Simeon, Horn, Franziska, and Müller, Klaus-Robert
- Subjects
Computer Science - Machine Learning ,Statistics - Machine Learning - Abstract
Accurately predicting industrial aging processes makes it possible to schedule maintenance events further in advance, ensuring a cost-efficient and reliable operation of the plant. So far, these degradation processes were usually described by mechanistic or simple empirical prediction models. In this paper, we evaluate a wider range of data-driven models, comparing some traditional stateless models (linear and kernel ridge regression, feed-forward neural networks) to more complex recurrent neural networks (echo state networks and LSTMs). We first examine how much historical data is needed to train each of the models on a synthetic dataset with known dynamics. Next, the models are tested on real-world data from a large scale chemical plant. Our results show that recurrent models produce near perfect predictions when trained on larger datasets, and maintain a good performance even when trained on smaller datasets with domain shifts, while the simpler models only performed comparably on the smaller datasets., Comment: 30 pages (41 including appendix), 13 figures, accepted in Computers and Chemical Engineering
- Published
- 2020