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Background Human papillomavirus (HVP)–positive oropharyngeal cancer is the most common HPV-associated cancer in the United States. The age at acquisition of oral HPV infections that cause oropharyngeal cancer (causal infections) is unknown; consequently, the benefit of vaccination of US men aged 27-45 years remains uncertain. Methods We developed a microsimulation-based, individual-level, state-transition model of oral HPV16 and HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer among heterosexual US men aged 15-84 years, calibrated to population-level data. We estimated the benefit of vaccination of men aged 27-45 years for prevention of oropharyngeal cancer, accounting for direct- and indirect effects (ie, herd effects) of male and female vaccination. Results In the absence of vaccination, most (70%) causal oral HPV16 infections are acquired by age 26 years, and 29% are acquired between ages 27 and 45 years. Among men aged 15-45 years in 2021 (1976-2006 birth cohorts), status quo vaccination of men through age 26 years is estimated to prevent 95% of 153 450 vaccine-preventable cancers. Assuming 100% vaccination in 2021, extending the upper age limit to 30, 35, 40, or 45 years for men aged 27-45 years (1976-1994 cohorts) is estimated to yield small benefits (3.0%, 4.2%, 5.1%, and 5.6% additional cancers prevented, respectively). Importantly, status quo vaccination of men through age 26 years is predicted to result in notable declines in HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer incidence in young men by 2035 (51% and 24% declines at ages 40-44 years and 45-49 years, respectively) and noticeable declines (12%) overall by 2045. Conclusion Most causal oral HPV16 infections in US men are acquired by age 26 years, underscoring limited benefit from vaccination of men aged 27-45 years for prevention of HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancers.

Blood-based assays using various technologies and biomarkers are in commercial development for the purpose of detecting multiple cancer types concurrently at an early stage of disease. These multicancer early detection (MCED) assays have the potential to improve the detection of cancers, particularly those for which no current screening modality exists. However, the unknown clinical benefits and harms of using MCED assays for cancer screening necessitate the development and implementation of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to ascertain their clinical effectiveness. This was the consensus of experts at a National Cancer Institute–hosted workshop to discuss initial design concepts for such a trial. Using these assays to screen simultaneously for multiple cancers poses novel uncertainties for patient care compared with conventional screening tests for single cancers, such as establishing the diagnostic workup to confirm the presence of cancer at any organ site; clarifying appropriate follow-up for a positive assay for which there is no definitive diagnosis; identifying potential harms such as overdiagnosis of indolent disease; determining clinically effective and efficient strategies for disseminating MCED screening in real-world practice; and understanding the ethical implications, such as potentially alleviating or exacerbating existing health disparities. These assays present new and complex challenges for designing an RCT. Issues that emerged from the meeting centered around the need for a flexibly designed, clinical utility RCT to rigorously capture the evidence required to fully understand the net benefit of this promising technology. Specific topic areas were endpoints, screening protocols, recruitment, diagnostic pathway, pilot phase, data elements, specimen collection, and ethical considerations.

ObjectivesBoth aerobic moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and muscle-strengthening exercise (MSE) are recommended, but the mortality benefits of weightlifting, a specific type of MSE, are limited.MethodsIn the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial, we used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between weightlifting and mortality, adjusting for demographics, lifestyle and behavioural risk factors. The sample included 99 713 adults who completed the follow-up questionnaire that assessed weightlifting who were subsequently followed up through 2016 to determine mortality (median 9, IQR 7.6–10.6 years).ResultsMean age at the follow-up questionnaire was 71.3 (IQR 66–76) years, 52.6% female, with mean body mass index of 27.8 (SD 4.9) kg/m2. Weightlifting was associated with a 9% lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR=0.91 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.94)) and CVD mortality (0.91 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.97)) after adjusting for MVPA. Joint models revealed that adults who met aerobic MVPA recommendations but did not weightlift had a 32% lower all-cause mortality risk (HR=0.68 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.70)), while those who also reported weightlifting 1–2 times/week had a 41% lower risk (HR=0.59 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.64)), both compared with adults reporting no aerobic MVPA or weightlifting. Without adjustment for MVPA, weightlifting was associated with lower cancer mortality (HR=0.85 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.91)).ConclusionWeightlifting and MVPA were associated with a lower risk of all-cause and CVD mortality, but not cancer mortality. Adults who met recommended amounts of both types of exercise appeared to gain additional benefit.

Longer-than-annual screening intervals have been suggested to improve the balance of benefits and harms in prostate cancer screening. Many researchers, societies, and guideline committees have suggested that screening intervals could depend on the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) result. We analyzed data from men (N = 33,897) ages 55–74 years with a baseline PSA test in the intervention arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening trial (United States, 1993–2001). We estimated 5- and 10-year risks of aggressive cancer (Gleason ≥8 and/or stage III/IV) and 15-year risks of prostate cancer–related mortality for men with baseline PSA ≤ 0.5 ng/mL (N = 4,862), ≤1 ng/mL (N = 15,110), and 1.01–2.5 ng/mL (N = 12,422). A total of 217 men died from prostate cancer through 15 years, although no men with PSA ≤ 1 ng/mL died from prostate cancer within 5 years [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.00%–0.03%]. The 5-year incidence of aggressive disease was low (0.08%; 95% CI, 0.03%–0.12%) for men with PSA ≤ 1 ng/mL, and higher for men with baseline PSA 1.01–2.5 ng/mL (0.51%; 95% CI, 0.38%–0.74%). No men aged ≥65 years with PSA ≤ 0.5 ng/mL died from prostate cancer within 15 years (95% CI, 0.00%–0.32%), and their 10-year incidence of aggressive disease was low (0.25%; 95% CI, 0.00%–0.53%). Compared with white men, black men with PSA ≤ 1 ng/mL had higher 10-year rates of aggressive disease (1.6% vs. 0.4%; P < 0.01). Five-year screening intervals may be appropriate for the 45% of men with PSA ≤ 1 ng/mL. Men ages ≥65 years with PSA ≤ 0.5 ng/mL could consider stopping screening. Substantial risk disparities suggest appropriate screening intervals could depend on race/ethnicity.

Supplemental Table 1: Screening history of diagnosed cancer cases Supplemental Table 2: Outcome by age and baseline histology among women with conservatively managed CIN1/2, CIN2, CIN2/3 biopsy results

Screening for oral leukoplakia, an oral cavity cancer (OCC) precursor, could lead to earlier detection of OCC. However, the progression rate from leukoplakia to OCC and the benefits of leukoplakia screening for improving OCC outcomes are currently unclear. We conducted a case–cohort study of U.S. adults ages ≥65 years in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linkage. We identified leukoplakia diagnoses through Medicare claims, and OCC diagnoses through SEER cancer registries. Weighted Cox regression was used to estimate leukoplakia associations with OCC incidence, and the absolute OCC risk following leukoplakia diagnosis was calculated. Among OCC cases, we compared OCC stage and OCC survival between cases with a prior leukoplakia diagnosis versus those without prior leukoplakia. Among 470,266 individuals in the SEER-Medicare subcohort, 1,526 (0.3%) had a leukoplakia diagnosis. Among people with leukoplakia, the cumulative OCC incidence was 0.7% at 3 months and 2.5% at 5 years. OCC risk was most increased N = 8,927), those with prior leukoplakia were less likely to be diagnosed at regional/distant stage (OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.30–0.43), and had lower mortality (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.65–0.84) when compared with OCC cases without a prior leukoplakia. Individuals with leukoplakia have substantially elevated risk of OCC. Lower stage and better survival after OCC diagnosis suggest that leukoplakia identification can lead to earlier OCC detection and reduced mortality. Cancer Prev Res; 8(9); 857–63. ©2015 AACR.

Supplementary Tables 1 & 2. Table 1: Comparison of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage to SEER historic stage within the SEER database. Table 2: Primary treatment for oral cavity cancer cases.

Supplementary Table 1: Average Sleep Duration in Various Age-Periods and Risk of Lung Cancer Mortality Among Ever Smoky Coal Users of Xuanwei, China (1994-2011), Stratified by Average Tons of Fuel/Coal Used Per Year Supplementary Table 2: Average Sleep Duration in Various Age-Periods Across the Adult Lifecourse and Risk of Lung Cancer Mortality (1994-2011) Among those Alive in 1992 and Self-Responded (Excluding Surrogate Reported Data) Supplementary Table 3: Average Sleep Duration in Various Age-Periods Across the Adult Lifecourse and Risk of Lung Cancer Mortality in Xuanwei, China (1976-2011) Supplementary Table 4: Average Sleep Duration in Various Age-Periods Across the Adult Lifecourse and Risk of Lung Cancer Mortality in Farmers of Xuanwei, China (1994-2011) using 8-9 Sleep Hours/day as the Reference Group

Supplementary Tables 1-3. Supplementary Table 1 - a) Correlations between selectb serum inflammation markers among lung cancer controls. b) Correlations between select and serum inflammation markers among NHL controls. c) Correlations between selectb serum inflammation markers among ovarian cancer controls. Supplementary Table 2. Odds ratios (ORs)a and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for selectb circulating inflammation markers and body mass index. Supplementary Table 3. Odds ratios (ORs)a and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for select circulating inflammation markers and body mass index (per 5-kg/m2) by case-control study

Background: The cobas HPV Test (“cobas”; Roche Molecular Systems) detects HPV16 and HPV18 individually, and a pool of 12 other high-risk (HR) HPV types. The test is approved for (i) atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) triage to determine need for colposcopy, (ii) combined screening with cytology (“cotesting”), and (iii) primary HPV screening.Methods: To assess the possible value of HPV16/18 typing, >17,000 specimens from a longitudinal cohort study of initially HPV-positive women (HC2, Qiagen) were retested with cobas. To study accuracy, cobas genotyping results were compared with those of an established method, the Linear Array HPV Genotyping Test (LA, Roche Molecular Systems). Clinical value of the typing strategy was evaluated by linking the cobas results (supplemented by other available typing results) to 3-year cumulative risks of CIN3+.Results: Grouped hierarchically (HPV16, else HPV18, else other HR types, else negative), the κ statistic for agreement between cobas and LA was 0.86 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.86–0.87]. In all three scenarios, HPV16-positive women were at much higher 3-year risk of CIN3+ than HPV16-negative women: women ages 21 and older with ASC-US (14.5%; 95% CI, 13.5%–15.5% vs. 3.5%; 95% CI, 3.3–3.6); women ages 30 years and older that were HPV-positive cytology-negative (10.3%; 95% CI, 9.6–11.1 vs. 2.3%; 95% CI, 2.2–2.4); and all women 25 years and older that were HPV-positive (18.5%; 95% CI, 17.8–19.2 vs. 4.3%; 95% CI, 4.2–4.4).Conclusion: The cobas and LA results show excellent agreement. The data support HPV16 typing.Impact: HPV16 typing is useful in the management of HPV-positive/cytology-negative women in cotesting, of all HPV-positive women in primary HPV testing, and perhaps in the management of HPV-positive women with ASC-US. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(9); 1304–10. ©2015 AACR.See related commentary by Del Mistro, p. 1302

Background: Coffee drinking has been inversely associated with mortality as well as cancers of the endometrium, colon, skin, prostate, and liver. Improved insulin sensitivity and reduced inflammation are among the hypothesized mechanisms by which coffee drinking may affect cancer risk; however, associations between coffee drinking and systemic levels of immune and inflammatory markers have not been well characterized.Methods: We used Luminex bead-based assays to measure serum levels of 77 immune and inflammatory markers in 1,728 older non-Hispanic Whites. Usual coffee intake was self-reported using a food frequency questionnaire. We used weighted multivariable logistic regression models to examine associations between coffee and dichotomized marker levels. We conducted statistical trend tests by modeling the median value of each coffee category and applied a 20% false discovery rate criterion to P values.Results: Ten of the 77 markers were nominally associated (P trend < 0.05) with coffee drinking. Five markers withstood correction for multiple comparisons and included aspects of the host response namely chemotaxis of monocytes/macrophages (IFNγ, CX3CL1/fractalkine, CCL4/MIP-1β), proinflammatory cytokines (sTNFRII), and regulators of cell growth (FGF-2). Heavy coffee drinkers had lower circulating levels of IFNγ [odds ratios (OR), 0.35; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.16–0.75], CX3CL1/fractalkine (OR, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.10–0.64), CCL4/MIP-1β (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.24–0.99), FGF-2 (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.28–1.38), and sTNFRII (OR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.15–0.79) than non-coffee drinkers.Conclusions: Lower circulating levels of inflammatory markers among coffee drinkers may partially mediate previously observed associations of coffee with cancer and other chronic diseases.Impact: Validation studies, ideally controlled feeding trials, are needed to confirm these associations. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(7); 1052–60. ©2015 AACR.

Supplementary Figure 1 from Circulating Markers of Interstitial Lung Disease and Subsequent Risk of Lung Cancer

Supplementary Materials and Methods: Details on development of sampling weights and their use in analysis.

SupplementaryTable S5. Odds ratios (OR) for high versus low levels e for eight circulating inflammatory markers (P-trend

Supplementary Table S4. Categorization of markers by weighted percent of values below the lower limit of detection (LOD)

Background: Regular aspirin use may decrease cancer risk by reducing chronic inflammation. However, associations between aspirin use and circulating markers of inflammation have not been well studied.Methods: Serum levels of 78 inflammatory markers were measured in 1,819 55- to 74-year-old men and women in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Data were combined from three completed case–control studies and reweighted to the PLCO screening arm. Self-reported aspirin and ibuprofen use (number of tablets taken per day/week/month) over the previous 12 months was collected at baseline. Associations between (i) nonregular (Results: Aspirin use was nominally associated with (Ptrend across categories ≤ 0.05) decreased levels of chemokine C-C motif ligand 15 [CCL15; OR, 0.5; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.3–0.8; moderate versus nonregular use]; soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (sVEGFR2; OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.4–1.0); soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1; OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4–0.9) and increased levels of CCL13 (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.8–2.1); CCL17 (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.7–1.9) and interleukin 4 (IL4; OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.9–2.8). Trends were not statistically significant following correction for multiple comparisons. Likewise, no statistically significant associations were observed between ibuprofen use and marker levels.Conclusions: No significant associations were observed between regular aspirin use and the inflammatory markers assessed.Impact: Additional studies are needed to better understand the relationship between aspirin use, chronic inflammation, and cancer risk. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(5); 825–32. ©2015 AACR.

Background: Epidemiologic studies examining circulating levels of inflammatory markers in relation to obesity and physical inactivity may aid in our understanding of the role of inflammation in obesity-related cancers. However, previous studies on this topic have focused on a limited set of markers.Methods: We evaluated associations between body mass index (BMI) and vigorous physical activity level, based on self-report, and serum levels of 78 inflammation-related markers. Markers were measured using a bead-based multiplex method among 1,703 men and women, ages 55–74 years, and with no prior history of cancer at blood draw, and selected for case–control studies nested within the Prostate, Lung, Ovarian, and Colorectal Cancer Screening Trial. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, case–control study, physical activity, and BMI.Results: Twelve markers were positively associated with BMI after FDR correction. ORs and 95% confidence interval (CI) for highest versus lowest levels of CCL2/MCP-1, CXCL5/ENA-78, sTNFRII, CXCL10/IP-10, CXCL6/GCP2, CCL13/MCP-4, amylin, CRP, C-peptide, CCL19/MIP-3b, insulin, and leptin were: 1.50 (1.14–1.98), 1.52 (1.12–2.05), 1.61 (1.17–2.20), 1.69 (1.25–2.28), 1.74 (1.24–2.44), 1.75 (1.22–2.50), 1.91 (1.31–2.78), 2.41 (1.36–4.25), 2.78 (1.83–4.24), 3.30 (2.28–4.78), 4.05 (2.51–6.55), and 50.03 (19.87–125.99) per 5 kg/m2, respectively. Only CXCL12/SDF-1a was associated with physical activity (≥3 vs. Conclusions: BMI was associated with a wide range of circulating markers involved in the inflammatory response.Impact: This cross-sectional analysis identified serum markers could be considered in future studies aimed at understanding the underlying mechanisms linking inflammation with obesity and obesity-related cancers. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 23(12); 2840–9. ©2014 AACR.

Supplementary Tables 1-3. Supplementary Table 1. Use of cobas-like partial HPV typing in triage of ASC-US. Supplementary Table 2. Use of cobas-like partial HPV typing in co-testing. Supplementary Table 3. Use of cobas-like partial HPV typing in primary HPV testing

Background: Inflammation and pulmonary diseases, including interstitial lung diseases, are associated with increased lung cancer risk. Circulating levels of surfactant protein-D (SP-D) and Krebs von Lungren-6 (KL-6) are elevated in interstitial lung disease patients and may be useful markers of processes contributing to lung cancer.Methods: We conducted a nested case–control study, including 532 lung cancer cases, 582 matched controls, and 150 additional controls with chest X-ray (CXR) evidence of pulmonary scarring, in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Serum SP-D and KL-6 levels were measured using enzyme immunoassay. Logistic regression was used to estimate the associations of SP-D and KL-6 with lung cancer and CXR scarring.Results: Cases had higher levels than controls for SP-D (median 118.7 vs. 105.4 ng/mL, P = 0.008) and KL-6 (372.0 vs. 325.8 μg/mL, P = 0.001). Lung cancer risk increased with SP-D (Ptrend = 0.0003) and KL-6 levels (Ptrend = 0.005). Compared with the lowest quartile, lung cancer risk was elevated among those with the highest quartiles of SP-D (OR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.32–2.64) or KL-6 (OR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.11–2.25). Among controls, participants with CXR scarring were more likely than those without scarring to have elevated levels of SP-D (quartile 4 vs. quartile 1: OR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.04–2.70, Ptrend = 0.05) but not of KL-6 (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.64–1.68, Ptrend = 0.99).Conclusion: Circulating levels of SP-D and KL-6 are associated with subsequent lung cancer risk.Impact: Our findings support a potential role for interstitial lung disease in lung cancer etiology or early detection, but additional research is needed. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 20(10); 2262–72. ©2011 AACR.

Supplemental Tables 1-7 and Methods. Details on development of sampling weights and their use in analysis. Supplemental Table 1. Description of three case-control studies nested within PLCO. Supplemental Table 2. Multiplex immune panel markers measured in the PLCO Cancer Screening Study. Supplemental Table 3: Percent detection and median levels for each inflammatory marker by original study. Supplemental Table 4: Participant characteristics for i) the 1,819 individuals with inflammatory marker data, ii) the weighted population and iii) those in the PLCO screening arm that met the study eligibility criteria. Supplemental Table 5: Associations between regular aspirin use and circulating inflammatory markers2, restricted to individuals without a history of chronic heart disease, stroke or arthritis. Supplemental Table 6: Associations between regular aspirin use and circulating inflammatory markers2, by study. Supplemental Table 7: Associations between regular aspirin use and circulating inflammatory markers.

Background: Cervical cancer screening with high-risk human papillomavirus (HrHPV) testing is being introduced. Most HrHPV infections are transient, requiring triage tests to identify individuals at highest risk for progression to cervical cancer. Head-to-head comparisons of available strategies for screening and triage are needed. Endometrial and ovarian cancers could be amenable to similar testing. Methods: Between 2016 and 2020, discarded cervical cancer screening specimens from women ages 25 to 65 undergoing screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California were collected. Specimens were aliquoted, stabilized, and stored frozen. Human papillomavirus (HPV), cytology, and histopathology results as well as demographic and cofactor information were obtained from electronic medical records (EMR). Follow-up collection of specimens was conducted for 2 years, and EMR-based data collection was planned for 5 years. Results: Collection of enrollment and follow-up specimens is complete, and EMR-based follow-up data collection is ongoing. At baseline, specimens were collected from 54,957 HPV-positive, 10,215 HPV-negative/Pap-positive, and 12,748 HPV-negative/Pap-negative women. Clinical history prior to baseline was available for 72.6% of individuals, of which 53.9% were undergoing routine screening, 8.6% recently had an abnormal screen, 30.3% had previous colposcopy, and 7.2% had previous treatment. As of February 2021, 55.7% had one or more colposcopies, yielding 5,563 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2), 2,756 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3), and 146 cancer histopathology diagnoses. Conclusions: This robust population-based cohort study represents all stages of cervical cancer screening, management, and posttreatment follow-up. Impact: The IRIS study is a unique and highly relevant resource allowing for natural history studies and rigorous evaluation of candidate HrHPV screening and triage markers, while permitting studies of biomarkers associated with other gynecologic cancers.

Objectives We propose a risk-tailored approach for management of lung cancer screening results. This approach incorporates individual risk factors and low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) image features into calculations of immediate and next-screen (1-y) risks of lung cancer detection, which in turn can recommend short-interval imaging or 1-year or 2-year screening intervals. Methods We first extended the "LCRAT+CT" individualized risk calculator to predict lung cancer risk after either a negative or abnormal LDCT screen result. To develop the abnormal screen portion, we analyzed 18,129 abnormal LDCT results in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), including lung cancers detected immediately (n = 649) or at the next screen (n = 235). We estimated the potential impact of this approach among NLST participants with any screen result (negative or abnormal). Results Applying the draft National Health Service (NHS) England protocol for lung screening to NLST participants referred 76% of participants to a 2-year interval, but delayed diagnosis for 40% of detectable cancers. The Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool+Computed Tomography (LCRAT+CT) risk model, with a threshold of less than 0.95% cumulative lung cancer risk, would also refer 76% of participants to a 2-year interval, but would delay diagnosis for only 30% of cancers, a 25% reduction versus the NHS protocol. Alternatively, LCRAT+CT, with a threshold of less than 1.7% cumulative lung cancer risk, would also delay diagnosis for 40% of cancers, but would refer 85% of participants for a 2-year interval, a 38% further reduction in the number of required 1-year screens beyond the NHS protocol. Conclusions Using individualized risk models to determine management in lung cancer screening could substantially reduce the number of screens or increase early detection.

Background Low-dose chest CT screening for lung cancer has become a standard of care in the United States, in large part because of the results of the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST). Additional evidence supporting the net benefit of low-dose chest CT screening for lung cancer, and increased experience in minimizing the potential harms, has accumulated since the prior iteration of these guidelines. Here, we update the evidence base for the benefit, harms, and implementation of low-dose chest CT screening. We use the updated evidence base to provide recommendations where the evidence allows, and statements based on experience and expert consensus where it does not. Methods Approved panelists reviewed previously developed key questions using the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome format to address the benefit and harms of low-dose CT screening, and key areas of program implementation. A systematic literature review was conducted using MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library on a quarterly basis since the time of the previous guideline publication. Reference lists from relevant retrievals were searched, and additional papers were added. Retrieved references were reviewed for relevance by two panel members. The quality of the evidence was assessed for each critical or important outcome of interest using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. Meta-analyses were performed where appropriate. Important clinical questions were addressed based on the evidence developed from the systematic literature review. Graded recommendations and ungraded statements were drafted, voted on, and revised until consensus was reached. Results The systematic literature review identified 75 additional studies that informed the response to the 12 key questions that were developed. Additional clinical questions were addressed resulting in seven graded recommendations and nine ungraded consensus statements. Conclusions Evidence suggests that low-dose CT screening for lung cancer can result in a favorable balance of benefit and harms. The selection of screen-eligible individuals, the quality of imaging and image interpretation, the management of screen-detected findings, and the effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions can impact this balance.

This survey study assesses the status and timing of HPV vaccination as self-reported by female participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2011 to 2018.

Most epidemiologic cohorts are composed of volunteers who do not represent the general population. To enable population inference from cohorts, we and others have proposed utilizing probability survey samples as external references to develop a propensity score (PS) for membership in the cohort versus survey. Herein we develop a unified framework for PS-based weighting (such as inverse PS weighting (IPSW)) and matching methods (such as kernel-weighting (KW) method). We identify a fundamental Strong Exchangeability Assumption (SEA) underlying existing PS-based matching methods whose failure invalidates inference even if the PS-model is correctly specified. We relax the SEA to a Weak Exchangeability Assumption (WEA) for the matching method. Also, we propose IPSW.S and KW.S methods that reduce the variance of PS-based estimators by scaling the survey weights used in the PS estimation. We prove consistency of the IPSW.S and KW.S estimators of population means and prevalences under WEA, and provide asymptotic variances and consistent variance estimators. In simulations, the KW.S and IPSW.S estimators had smallest MSE. In our data example, the original KW estimates had large bias, whereas the KW.S estimates had the smallest MSE.

Introduction To help target preventive strategies, we estimated US population attributable risks (PARs) of demographic and potentially modifiable risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA). Methods We prospectively examined the associations for risk factors and these cancers in 490,605 people in the National Institutes of Health-the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health cohort Diet and Health Study cohort from 1995 to 2011. Exposures were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. Diagnoses of gastroesophageal reflux disease were extracted for a subset of eligible National Institutes of Health-the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health cohort subjects through linkage to Medicare and then multiply imputed for non-Medicare-eligible subjects. Hazard ratios were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Adjusted population attributable risks were calculated for the US population aged 50-71 years by combining the hazard ratios with the estimated joint distribution of risk factor prevalence from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey. Results Smoking remained the most important risk factor for ESCC and was estimated to cause more than 1/3 of EAC and GCA and 1/10 of GNCA. Obesity and gastroesophageal reflux disease were associated with more than 1/2 of EAC and 1/3 of GCA. Compared with each lowest-risk level category, common risk factors were estimated to be associated with 73.7% of ESCC (95% confidence interval [CI]: 62.1%-85.4%), 70.3% of EAC (95% CI: 64.4%-76.2%), 69.3% of GCA (95% CI: 61.0%-77.7%), and 33.6% of GNCA (95% CI: 21.7%-45.5%). Discussion These factors accounted for a large proportion of esophageal and gastric cancers in the United States, highlighting opportunities for education and intervention to reduce the burden of these highly fatal cancers.

Telomere length (TL) is a marker of biological aging associated with several health outcomes. High throughput reproducible TL measurements are needed for large epidemiological studies. We compared the novel DNA methylation-based estimator (DNAmTL) with the high-throughput quantitative PCR (qPCR) and the highly accurate flow cytometry with fluorescent in situ hybridization (flow FISH) methods using blood samples from healthy adults. We used Pearson’s correlation coefficient, Bland Altman plots and linear regression models for statistical analysis. Shorter DNAmTL was associated with older age, male sex, white race, and cytomegalovirus seropositivity (p70% of TL categorized above or below the median, but the accuracy dropped with increasing TL categories. The ability of DNAmTL to detect associations with age and other TL-related factors in the absence of strong correlation with measured TL may indicate its capture of aspects of telomere maintenance mechanisms and not necessarily TL. The inaccuracy of DNAmTL prediction should be considered during data interpretation and across-study comparisons.

BACKGROUND Studying the differential impact of aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs across the stages of colorectal neoplasia from early adenoma to cancer is critical for understanding the benefits of these widely used drugs. METHODS With 13 years of follow-up, the authors prospectively evaluated the association between aspirin and ibuprofen use and incident distal adenoma (1221 cases), recurrent adenoma (862 cases), and incident colorectal cancer (CRC; 2826 cases) among men and women in the population-based Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. With multivariable-adjusted models, odds ratio (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for adenoma incidence and recurrence and hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident CRC were determined. RESULTS The authors observed a significantly reduced risk of incident adenoma with ibuprofen use (≥30 vs

Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a popular approach for assessing biomarkers and risk models, but does not require costs and thus cannot identify optimal risk thresholds for actions. Full decision analyses can identify optimal thresholds, but typically used methods are complex and often difficult to understand. We develop a simple framework to calculate the incremental net benefit for a single-time screen as a function of costs (for tests and treatments) and effectiveness (life-years gained). We provide simple expressions for the optimal cost-effective risk threshold and, equally importantly, for the monetary value of life-years gained associated with the risk threshold. We consider the controversy over the risk threshold to screen women for mutations in BRCA1/2. Importantly, most, and sometimes even all, of the thresholds identified by DCA are infeasible based on their associated dollars per life-year gained. Our simple framework facilitates sensitivity analyses to cost and effectiveness parameters. The proposed approach estimates optimal risk thresholds in a simple and transparent manner, provides intuition about which quantities are critical, and may serve as a bridge between DCA and a full decision analysis.

Background Prior studies have suggested that gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) may be associated with risk of squamous cancers of the larynx and esophagus; however, most of these studies have had methodological limitations or insufficient control for potential confounders. Methods We prospectively examined the association between GERD and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EADC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) in 490,605 participants of the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort who were 50-71 years of age at baseline. Exposure to risk factors were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. GERD diagnosis was extracted among eligible participants via linkage to Medicare diagnoses codes and then multiply imputed for non-Medicare-eligible participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of GERD were computed using Cox regression. Results From 1995 to 2011, we accrued 931 cases of EADC, 876 cases of LSCC, and 301 cases of ESCC in this cohort and estimated multivariable-adjusted HRs of 2.23 (95% CI, 1.72-2.90), 1.91 (95% CI, 1.24-2.94), and 1.99 (95% CI, 1.39-2.84) for EADC, LSCC, and ESCC, respectively. The associations were independent of sex, smoking status, alcohol intake, and follow-up time periods. We estimated that among the general population in the United States, 22.04% of people aged 50-71 years suffered from GERD. Using risk factor distributions for the United States from national survey data, 16.92% of LSCC cases and 17.32% of ESCC cases among individuals aged 50-71 years were estimated to be associated with GERD. Conclusion GERD is a common gastrointestinal disorder, but future prospective studies are needed to replicate our findings. If replicated, they may inform clinical surveillance of GERD patients and suggest new avenues for prevention of these malignancies.

We examined whether draft 2020 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) lung cancer screening recommendations “partially ameliorate racial disparities in screening eligibility” compared with the 2013 guidelines, as claimed. Using data from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey, USPSTF-2020 increased eligibility by similar proportions for minorities (97.1%) and Whites (78.3%). Contrary to the intent of USPSTF-2020, the relative disparity (differences in percentages of model-estimated gainable life-years from National Lung Screening Trial–like screening by eligible Whites vs minorities) actually increased from USPSTF-2013 to USPSTF-2020 (African Americans: 48.3%–33.4% = 15.0% to 64.5%–48.5% = 16.0%; Asian Americans: 48.3%–35.6% = 12.7% to 64.5%–45.2% = 19.3%; Hispanic Americans: 48.3%–24.8% = 23.5% to 64.5%–37.0% = 27.5%). However, augmenting USPSTF-2020 with high-benefit individuals selected by the Life-Years From Screening with Computed Tomography (LYFS-CT) model nearly eliminated disparities for African Americans (76.8%–75.5% = 1.2%) and improved screening efficiency for Asian and Hispanic Americans, although disparities were reduced only slightly (Hispanic Americans) or unchanged (Asian Americans). The draft USPSTF-2020 guidelines increased the number of eligible minorities vs USPSTF-2013 but may inadvertently increase racial and ethnic disparities. LYFS-CT could reduce disparities in screening eligibility by identifying ineligible people with high predicted benefit regardless of race and ethnicity.

Summary Background The interferon lambda 4 gene (IFNL4) regulates immune responses by controlling the production of IFNλ4, a type III interferon. We hypothesised that IFNλ4 could play a role in infection clearance or alloreactivity in patients with acute leukaemia who received a myeloablative 10/10 HLA-matched haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT). Therefore, we aimed to assess the association between recipient and donor IFNL4 genotype with post-HSCT survival outcomes in patients with acute leukaemia. Methods We did a two-stage retrospective cohort study using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) repository and database, in which nearly all patients underwent the procedure in the USA. We included patients with acute myeloid leukaemia or acute lymphocytic leukaemia, who received a HSCT at any age from an unrelated 10/10 HLA-matched donor, with a myeloablative conditioning regimen, between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2008, and had a pre-HSCT recipient or donor blood sample available. The discovery dataset included patients from an existing National Cancer Institute (NCI) cohort of the CIBMTR database, in which donor and recipient IFNL4 polymorphisms (rs368234815, rs12979860, and rs117648444) were genotyped with TaqMan assays. According to their genotype, donors and recipients were categorised into IFNL4-positive, if they had at least one copy of the allele that supports the production of IFNλ4, or IFNL4-null for the analyses. The findings were independently validated with patients from the DISCOVeRY-BMT cohort (validation dataset) with existing Illumina array genotype data. We also did a combined analysis using data from patients included in both the NCI and DISCOVeRY-BMT cohorts. Findings We assessed 404 patients (who had a HSCT from Jan 9, 2004, to Dec 26, 2008) in the discovery dataset and 1245 patients in the validation dataset (HSCT Jan 7, 2000, to Dec 26, 2008). The combined analysis included 1593 overlapping participants in both cohorts. Donor, but not recipient IFNL4-positive genotype was associated with increased risk of non-relapse mortality (HR 1·60, 95% CI 1·23–2·10; p=0·0005 in the discovery dataset; 1·22, 1·05–1·40; p=0·0072 in the validation dataset; and 1·27, 1·12–1·45; p=0·0001 in the combined dataset). Associations with post-HSCT overall survival were as follows: HR 1·24, 95% CI 1·02–1·51; p=0·034 in the discovery dataset; 1·10, 0·98–1·20; p=0·10 in the validation dataset; and 1·11, 1·02–1·22; p=0·018 in the combined dataset. Interpretation Prioritising HSCT donors with the IFNL4-null genotype might decrease non-relapse mortality and improve overall survival without substantially limiting the donor pool. If these findings are validated, IFNL4 genotype could be added to the donor selection algorithm. Funding The National Cancer Institute Intramural Research Program. For full funding list see Acknowledgments.

Cancer incidence is higher in men than in women at most shared anatomic sites for currently unknown reasons. The authors quantified the extent to which behaviors (smoking and alcohol use), anthropometrics (body mass index and height), lifestyles (physical activity, diet, medications), and medical history collectively explain the male predominance of risk at 21 shared cancer sites.Prospective cohort analyses (n = 171,274 male and n = 122,826 female participants; age range, 50-71 years) in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (1995-2011). Cancer-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate male-to-female hazard ratios (HRs). The degree to which risk factors explained the observed male-female risk disparity was quantified using the Peters-Belson method.There were 26,693 incident cancers (17,951 in men and 8742 in women). Incidence was significantly lower in men than in women only for thyroid and gallbladder cancers. At most other anatomic sites, the risks were higher in men than in women (adjusted HR range, 1.3-10.8), with the strongest increases for bladder cancer (HR, 3.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.93-3.79), gastric cardia cancer (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.37), larynx cancer (HR, 3.53; 95% CI, 2.46-5.06), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR, 10.80; 95% CI, 7.33-15.90). Risk factors explained a statistically significant (nonzero) proportion of the observed male excess for esophageal adenocarcinoma and cancers of liver, other biliary tract, bladder, skin, colon, rectum, and lung. However, only a modest proportion of the male excess was explained by risk factors (ranging from 50% for lung cancer to 11% for esophageal adenocarcinoma).Men have a higher risk of cancer than women at most shared anatomic sites. Such male predominance is largely unexplained by risk factors, underscoring a role for sex-related biologic factors.

Ghrelin is a hormone produced in the oxyntic glands of the stomach. Previous work by our group has suggested that serum ghrelin concentrations are inversely associated with gastric and esophageal cancer risk. We measured ghrelin concentrations in the Linxian General Population Nutrition Intervention Trial (NIT), and the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS). In NIT, we analyzed serum samples from 298 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) cases, 518 gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) cases, 258 gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA) cases and 770 subcohort controls (case–cohort). In SWHS, we measured ghrelin in plasma samples from 249 GNCA cases and 498 matched controls (nested case–control). Ghrelin was measured using radioimmunoassay. In NIT and SWHS, low ghrelin concentrations were associated with an increased risk of developing GNCA and GCA. The hazard ratio (HR Q1:Q4) for GNCA in NIT was 1.35 (95% CI: 0.89–2.05; p-trend = 0.02); the odds ratio in SWHS was 1.66 (95% CI: 1.02–2.70; p-trend = 0.06). Low ghrelin was associated with a twofold increase of GCA (HR Q1:Q4 = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.45–2.77; p-trend

Summary For various reasons, cohort studies generally forgo probability sampling required to obtain population representative samples. However, such cohorts lack population representativeness, which invalidates estimates of population prevalences for novel health factors that are only available in cohorts. To improve external validity of estimates from cohorts, we propose a kernel weighting (KW) approach that uses survey data as a reference to create pseudoweights for cohorts. A jackknife variance is proposed for the KW estimates. In simulations, the KW method outperformed two existing propensity-score-based weighting methods in mean-squared error while maintaining confidence interval coverage. We applied all methods to estimating US population mortality and prevalences of various diseases from the non-representative US National Institutes of Health–American Association of Retired Persons cohort, using the sample from the US-representative National Health Interview Survey as the reference. Assuming that the survey estimates are correct, the KW approach yielded generally less biased estimates compared with the existing propensity-score-based weighting methods.

Supplemental digital content is available in the text., Objective To manage cervical screening abnormalities, the 2019 ASCCP management consensus guidelines will recommend clinical action on the basis of risk of cervical precancer and cancer. This article details the methods used to estimate risk, to determine the risk-based management, and to validate that the risk-based recommendations are of general use in different settings. Methods Based on 1.5 million patients undergoing triennial cervical screening by cotesting at the Kaiser Permanente Northern California from 2003 to 2017, we estimated risk profiles for different clinical scenarios and combinations of past and current human papillomavirus and cytology test results. We validated the recommended management by comparing with the estimated risks in several external data sources. Results Risk and management tables are presented separately by Egemen et al.1 and Demarco et al.2 Risk-based management derived from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California largely agreed with the management implied from the estimated risks of the other data sources. Conclusions The new risk-based guidelines present management of abnormal cervical screening results. By describing the steps used to develop these guidelines, the methods presented in this article can provide a basis for future extensions of the risk-based guidelines.

Background: High disease burden suggests the desirability to identify high-risk Asian never-smoking females (NSF) who may benefit from low-dose CT (LDCT) screening. In North America, one is eligible for LDCT screening if one satisfies the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria or has model-estimated 6-year risk greater than 0.0151. According to two U.S. reports, only 36.6% female patients with lung cancer met the USPSTF criteria, while 38% of the ever-smokers ages 55 to 74 years met the USPSTF criteria. Methods: Using data on NSFs in the Taiwan Genetic Epidemiology Study of Lung Adenocarcinoma and the Taiwan Biobank before August 2016, we formed an age-matched case–control study consisting of 1,748 patients with lung cancer and 6,535 controls. Using these and an estimated age-specific lung cancer 6-year incidence rate among Taiwanese NSFs, we developed the Taiwanese NSF Lung Cancer Risk Models using genetic information and simplified questionnaire (TNSF-SQ). Performance evaluation was based on the newer independent datasets: Taiwan Lung Cancer Pharmacogenomics Study (LCPG) and Taiwan Biobank data after August 2016 (TWB2). Results: The AUC based on the NSFs ages 55 to 70 years in LCPG and TWB2 was 0.714 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.660–0.768]. For women in TWB2 ages 55 to 70 years, 3.94% (95% CI, 2.95–5.13) had risk higher than 0.0151. For women in LCPG ages 55 to 74 years, 27.03% (95% CI, 19.04–36.28) had risk higher than 0.0151. Conclusions: TNSF-SQ demonstrated good discriminative power. The ability to identify 27.03% of high-risk Asian NSFs ages 55 to 74 years deserves attention. Impact: TNSF-SQ seems potentially useful in selecting Asian NSFs for LDCT screening.

This cohort study seeks to determine the association of prediagnostic autoantibodies to gastric mucosa with gastric cancer risk., Key Points Question Is there an association between autoantibodies to gastric mucosa and gastric cancer (GC)? Findings In this cohort study of 529 female matched pairs from the Finnish Maternity Cohort and 457 male matched pairs from the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study, prediagnostic seropositivity to antiparietal cell antibodies was associated with the elevated risk of GC among young women born in 1938 through 1989 during a median of 17 years follow-up but not among older men born in 1916 through 1939 during a median of 11 years follow-up. The magnitude of association was stronger in Helicobacter pylori–seronegative women and most pronounced for tumors in the corpus. Meaning With the waning prevalence of H pylori, autoimmune-driven GC may explain the recent rise of GC incidence among the younger female population., Importance Autoimmune gastritis is an alternative cause of gastric carcinogenesis. This cause may be gaining importance with declining prevalence of chronic Helicobacter pylori infection. Objective To determine the association of prediagnostic autoantibodies to gastric mucosa with gastric cancer (GC) risk. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study used nested GC case-control analyses within separate Finnish cohorts of women of reproductive age (Finnish Maternity Cohort [FMC]; born 1938-1989) and older men (Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention [ATBC] Study; born 1916-1939). There were 529 and 457 matched pairs from the FMC and ATBC Study, respectively, with mean participant ages of 30.5 and 57.5 years and medians of 17 and 11 years from baseline to cancer diagnosis. Data analyses were performed between August 2019 and November 2020. Exposures Antiparietal cell antibodies (APCAs), anti-intrinsic factor antibodies, and anti–H pylori antibodies were measured in baseline serum using immunoassays. Main Outcomes and Measures Autoantibody associations were estimated by odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs. Results Of the 529 control participants in the FMC and 457 control participants in the ATBC Study, 53 (10%) women and 35 (7.7%) men were APCA seropositive, respectively, whereas 146 (28%) women and 329 (72%) men were H pylori seropositive. In the FMC, APCA seropositivity was statistically significantly associated with GC risk among H pylori-seronegative women (OR, 5.52; 95% CI, 3.16-9.64) but not H pylori-seropositive women (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.64-2.60; P for interaction = .002). The APCA association with H pylori seronegativity was strongest for tumors in the fundus and corpus (OR, 24.84; 95% CI, 8.49-72.72). In the ATBC Study, APCA seropositivity was not associated with GC among either H pylori–seronegative men (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.32-3.04) or H pylori–seropositive men (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.60-1.88). In both cohorts, anti-intrinsic factor antibody seroprevalence was less than 2% among cases as well as controls and not statistically associated with GC risk. Conclusions and Relevance Results of this cohort study demonstrate that autoantibody positivity may reflect subclinical autoimmune gastritis in younger women. The findings among young females and corpus subsite align with increasing cancer incidence trends for these groups. Stronger autoimmune associations in H pylori-seronegative individuals support a model of autoimmune gastritis replacing H pylori as the driving factor.

To improve risk stratification and treatment decisions for patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We used SNP-array data from the DISCOVeRY-BMT study to detect chromosomal aberrations in pre-HCT peripheral blood (collected 2–4 weeks before the administration of conditioning regimen) from 1974 AML patients who received HCT between 2000 and 2011. All aberrations detected in ≥ 10 patients were tested for their association with overall survival (OS), separately by remission status, using the Kaplan–Meier estimator. Cox regression models were used for multivariable analyses. Follow-up was through January 2019. We identified 701 unique chromosomal aberrations in 285 patients (7% of 1438 in complete remission (CR) and 36% of 536 not in CR). Copy-neutral loss-of-heterozygosity (CNLOH) in chr17p in CR patients (3-year OS = 20% vs. 50%, with and without chr17p CNLOH, p = 0.0002), and chr13q in patients not in CR (3-year OS = 4% vs. 26%, with and without chr13q CNLOH, p

BACKGROUND: Low-dose chest CT screening for lung cancer has become a standard of care in the United States, in large part because of the results of the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST). Additional evidence supporting the net benefit of low-dose chest CT screening for lung cancer, and increased experience in minimizing the potential harms, has accumulated since the prior iteration of these guidelines. Here, we update the evidence base for the benefit, harms, and implementation of low-dose chest CT screening. We use the updated evidence base to provide recommendations where the evidence allows, and statements based on experience and expert consensus where it does not. METHODS: Approved panelists reviewed previously developed key questions using the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome format to address the benefit and harms of low-dose CT screening, and key areas of program implementation. A systematic literature review was conducted using MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library on a quarterly basis since the time of the previous guideline publication. Reference lists from relevant retrievals were searched, and additional papers were added. Retrieved references were reviewed for relevance by two panel members. The quality of the evidence was assessed for each critical or important outcome of interest using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. Meta-analyses were performed where appropriate. Important clinical questions were addressed based on the evidence developed from the systematic literature review. Graded recommendations and ungraded statements were drafted, voted on, and revised until consensus was reached. RESULTS: The systematic literature review identified 75 additional studies that informed the response to the 12 key questions that were developed. Additional clinical questions were addressed resulting in seven graded recommendations and nine ungraded consensus statements. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence suggests that low-dose CT screening for lung cancer can result in a favorable balance of benefit and harms. The selection of screen-eligible individuals, the quality of imaging and image interpretation, the management of screen-detected findings, and the effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions can impact this balance.

Background Lifetime use of bituminous (‘smoky’) coal is associated with nearly a 100-fold higher risk of lung cancer mortality compared with anthracite (‘smokeless’) coal use in rural Xuanwei, China, among women. Risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke for these coal types has not been evaluated. Methods A cohort of 16 323 non-smoking women in Xuanwei, who were lifetime users of either smoky or smokeless coal, were followed up from 1976 to 2011. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate lifetime use of coal types and stoves in the home in relation to risk of IHD and stroke mortality. Results Among lifetime users of smokeless coal, higher average exposure intensity (≥4 tons/year vs 64 ton-years vs ≤28 ton-years, HR = 6.5, 95% CI = 1.5–28.3; Ptrend =0.003) during follow-up and over their lifetime was associated with increased IHD mortality, and ventilated stove use dramatically reduced this risk (HR = 0.2, 95% CI 0.1–0.5). Higher cumulative exposure to smoky coal during follow-up showed positive associations with IHD mortality, but the evidence for other metrics was less consistent compared with associations with smokeless coal use. Conclusions Higher use of smokeless coal, which is burned throughout China and is generally regarded to be a cleaner fuel type, is associated with IHD mortality. Use of cleaner fuels or stove interventions may be effective in reducing the increasing burden of IHD in developing regions that currently rely on smokeless coal for cooking and heating.

Lengthening the annual low-dose computed tomography (CT) screening interval for individuals at lowest risk of lung cancer could reduce harms and improve efficiency. We analyzed 23 328 participants in the National Lung Screening Trial who had a negative CT screen (no ≥4-mm nodules) to develop an individualized model for lung cancer risk after a negative CT. The Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool + CT (LCRAT+CT) updates “prescreening risk” (calculated using traditional risk factors) with selected CT features. At the next annual screen following a negative CT, risk of cancer detection was reduced among the 70% of participants with neither CT-detected emphysema nor consolidation (median risk = 0.2%, interquartile range [IQR] = 0.1%–0.3%). However, risk increased for the 30% with CT emphysema (median risk = 0.5%, IQR = 0.3%–0.8%) and the 0.6% with consolidation (median = 1.6%, IQR = 1.0%–2.5%). As one example, a threshold of next-screen risk lower than 0.3% would lengthen the interval for 57.8% of screen-negatives, thus averting 49.8% of next-screen false-positives among screen-negatives but delaying diagnosis for 23.9% of cancers. Our results support that many, but not all, screen-negatives might reasonably lengthen their CT screening interval.

US guidelines recommend that most women older than 65 years cease cervical screening after two consecutive negative cotests (concurrent HPV and cytology tests) in the previous 10 years, with one in the last 5 years. However, this recommendation was based on expert opinion and modeling rather than empirical data on cancer risk. We therefore estimated the 5‐year risks of cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or adenocarcinoma in situ [CIN3]) after one, two and three negative cotests among 346,760 women aged 55–64 years undergoing routine cotesting at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (2003–2015). Women with a history of excisional treatment or CIN2+ were excluded. No woman with one or more negative cotests was diagnosed with cancer during follow‐up. Five‐year risks of CIN3 after one, two, and three consecutive negative cotests were 0.034% (95% CI: 0.023%–0.046%), 0.041% (95% CI: 0.007%–0.076%) and 0.016% (95% CI: 0.000%–0.052%), respectively (p trend < 0.001). These risks did not appreciably differ by a positive cotest result prior to the one, two or three negative cotest(s). Since CIN3 risks after one or more negative cotests were significantly below a proposed 0.12% CIN3+ risk threshold for a 5‐year screening interval, a longer screening interval in these women is justified. However, the choice of how many negative cotests provide sufficient safety against invasive cancer over a woman's remaining life represents a value judgment based on the harms versus benefits of continued screening. Ideally, this guideline should be informed by longer‐term follow‐up given that exiting is a long‐term decision., What's new? US guidelines recommend that women older than 65 years cease screening for cervical cancer following two consecutive negative cotests (HPV and cytology) in the previous ten years. However, these guidelines are based on modelling and expert opinion, rather than empirical data. In this large epidemiological study, the authors estimated the risks of cervical precancer following one, two, or three negative cotests among women aged 55‐64 years. They caution that the optimal time for women to exit screening represents a value judgment, based on the harms versus benefits of continued screening. Further data are needed.

Inflammation is a driver of colorectal neoplasia; however, what particular inflammatory processes play a role in early carcinogenesis are unclear. We compared serum levels of 78 inflammation markers between 171 pathologically confirmed colorectal adenoma cases (including 48 incident cases) and 344 controls within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. We used weighted multivariable logistic regression to compute odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). We found 14 markers associated with risk of adenoma overall; three of these were also associated with incident adenoma: CC-chemokine cysteine motif chemokine ligand 20 (CCL20) [overall adenoma fourth versus first quartile: OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.0–12, Ptrend 0.0007; incident adenoma third versus first tertile: OR 4.6, 95% CI 1.0–22, Ptrend 0.03], growth-related gene oncogene products (GRO) [OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.6–9.3, Ptrend 0.006 and OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.1–12, Ptrend 0.04, respectively] and insulin [OR 2.9, 95% CI 0.8–10, Ptrend 0.05 and OR 7.8, 95% CI 1.3–46, Ptrend 0.03, respectively]. All statistical tests were two-sided. These results provide important new evidence implicating CCL20- and GRO-related pathways in early colorectal carcinogenesis and further support a role for insulin.