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BACKGROUND: Disability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of the probability of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking. METHODS: Data of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. Transparent Reporting for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines were followed. Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expanded disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course. To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated with the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error. All our preprocessing and model code are available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS. FINDINGS: Machine learning models achieved a ROC-AUC of 0⋅71 ± 0⋅01, an AUC-PR of 0⋅26 ± 0⋅02, a Brier score of 0⋅1 ± 0⋅01 and an expected calibration error of 0⋅07 ± 0⋅04. The history of disability progression was identified as being more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses history. CONCLUSIONS: Good discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation s

IMPORTANCE: Natalizumab cessation is associated with a risk of rebound disease activity. It is important to identify the optimal switch disease-modifying therapy strategy after natalizumab to limit the risk of severe relapses. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness and persistence of dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, and ocrelizumab among patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who discontinued natalizumab. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this observational cohort study, patient data were collected from the MSBase registry between June 15, 2010, and July 6, 2021. The median follow-up was 2.7 years. This was a multicenter study that included patients with RRMS who had used natalizumab for 6 months or longer and then were switched to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab within 3 months after natalizumab discontinuation. Patients without baseline data were excluded from the analysis. Data were analyzed from May 24, 2022, to January 9, 2023. EXPOSURES: Dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, and ocrelizumab. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcomes were annualized relapse rate (ARR) and time to first relapse. Secondary outcomes were confirmed disability accumulation, disability improvement, and subsequent treatment discontinuation, with the comparisons for the first 2 limited to fingolimod and ocrelizumab due to the small number of patients taking dimethyl fumarate. The associations were analyzed after balancing covariates using an inverse probability of treatment weighting method. RESULTS: Among 66 840 patients with RRMS, 1744 had used natalizumab for 6 months or longer and were switched to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab within 3 months of natalizumab discontinuation. After excluding 358 patients without baseline data, a total of 1386 patients (mean [SD] age, 41.3 [10.6] years; 990 female [71%]) switched to dimethyl fumarate (138 [9.9%]), fingolimod (823 [59.4%]), or ocrelizumab (425 [30.7%]) after natalizumab. The ARR for ea

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients wa

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?: Patient registries contain anonymous data from people who share the same medical condition. The MSBase registry contains information from over 80,000 people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) across 41 countries. Using information from the MSBase registry, the GLIMPSE (Generating Learnings In MultiPle SclErosis) study looked at real-life outcomes in 3475 people living with MS who were treated with cladribine tablets (Mavenclad®) compared with other oral treatments. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS?: Results showed that people treated with cladribine tablets stayed on treatment for longer than other treatments given by mouth. They also had fewer relapses (also called flare ups of symptoms) than people who received a different oral treatment for their MS. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?: The results provide evidence that, compared with other oral treatments for MS, cladribine tablets are an effective medicine for people living with MS.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

Background: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. Methods: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. Results: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. Conclusions: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. METHODS: We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. RESULTS: People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of cladribine tablets, an oral disease-modifying treatment (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS), was established in clinical trials and confirmed with real-world experience. OBJECTIVES: Use real-world data to compare treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in people with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine tablets versus other oral DMTs. METHODS: Retrospective treatment comparisons were based on data from the international MSBase registry. Eligible pwMS started treatment with cladribine, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide tablets from 2018 to mid-2021 and were censored at treatment discontinuation/switch, death, loss to follow-up, pregnancy, or study period end. Treatment persistence was evaluated as time to discontinuation/switch; relapse outcomes included time to first relapse and annualized relapse rate (ARR). RESULTS: Cohorts included 633 pwMS receiving cladribine tablets, 1195 receiving fingolimod, 912 receiving dimethyl fumarate, and 735 receiving teriflunomide. Individuals treated with fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide switched treatment significantly more quickly than matched cladribine tablet cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 4.00 (2.54-6.32), 7.04 (4.16-11.93), and 6.52 (3.79-11.22), respectively). Cladribine tablet cohorts had significantly longer time-to-treatment discontinuation, time to first relapse, and lower ARR, compared with other oral DMT cohorts. CONCLUSION: Cladribine tablets were associated with a significantly greater real-world treatment persistence and more favorable relapse outcomes than all oral DMT comparators.

Background: the prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. Objective: to determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. Methods: we redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. Results: people who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. Conclusion: this study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions., The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This study was financially supported by National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (fellowship nos.1140766 and 1080518, project grant nos. 1129189 and 1083539), the University of Melbourne (Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences research fellowship), National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK) Advanced Fellowship (grant no. 301728; recipient JWLB) and Academic Clinical Fellowship (grant no. EAN/ACA-006/7488627/C; recipient CD). The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Roche, Merck, Biogen, Novartis, Bayer Schering, Sanofi Genzyme, and Teva. Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, the University of Melbourne and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK) had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding the determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, ultraviolet B radiation exposure (UVB) and the severity of MS. METHOD(S): This observational study used the MSBase registry data. The included patients met the 2005 or 2010 McDonald diagnostic criteria for MS and had a minimum dataset recorded in the registry (date of birth, sex, clinic location, date of MS symptom onset, disease phenotype at baseline and censoring, and >=1 EDSS [Expanded Disability Status Scale] score recorded). The latitude of each study center and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Disease severity was quantified with MS Severity Score (MSSS). Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB and MSSS. RESULT(S): 46,128 patients contributing 453,208 visits and a cumulative follow-up of 351,196 patient-years (70% women, mean age 39.2+/-12, resident between latitudes 19degree35' and 56degree16') were included in this study. Latitude showed a non-linear association with MS severity. In latitudes greater than 40degree, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (beta=0.08, 95%CI: 0.04 to 0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40degree (beta=-0.02, 95% CI:-0.06 to 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 (beta=- 0.5, 95% CI: -0.6 to 0.4) and 18 years (beta=- 0.6, 95%CI:-0.7 to 0.4), as well as with lower life-time UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (be

Background and purpose: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Method(s): In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Result(s): The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score >1.5). Conclusion(s): Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.Copyright © 2022 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behal

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the rate of return of disease activity after cessation of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy. METHOD(S): This was a retrospective cohort study from two large observational MS registries: MSBase and OFSEP. Patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had ceased a disease-modifying therapy and were followed up for the subsequent 12-months were included in the analysis. The primary study outcome was annualised relapse rate in the 12 months after disease-modifying therapy discontinuation stratified by patients who did, and did not, commence a subsequent therapy. The secondary endpoint was the predictors of first relapse and disability accumulation after treatment discontinuation. RESULT(S): 14,213 patients, with 18,029 eligible treatment discontinuation epochs, were identified for seven therapies. Annualised rates of relapse (ARR) started to increase 2-months after natalizumab cessation (month 2-4 ARR, 95% confidence interval): 0.47, 0.43-0.51). Commencement of a subsequent therapy within 2-4 months reduced the magnitude of disease reactivation (mean ARR difference: 0.15, 0.08-0.22). After discontinuation of fingolimod, rates of relapse increased overall (month 1-2 ARR: 0.80, 0.70-0.89), and stabilised faster in patients who started a new therapy within 1-2 months (mean ARR difference: 0.14, -0.01-0.29). Magnitude of disease reactivation for other therapies was low, but reduced further by commencement of another treatment 1-10 months after treatment discontinuation. Predictors of relapse were higher relapse rate in the year before cessation, female sex, younger age and higher EDSS. Commencement of a subsequent therapy reduced both the risk of relapse (HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.72-0.81) and disability accumulation (0.73, 0.65-0.80). CONCLUSION(S): The rate of disease reactivation after treatment cessation differs among MS treatments, with the peaks of relapse activity ranging from 1 to 10 months in untreated cohorts that discontinued different t

BACKGROUND: Patients with highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis inadequately responding to first-line therapies (interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, and teriflunomide, known collectively as "BRACETD") often switch to natalizumab or fingolimod. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to estimate the comparative effectiveness of switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD using real-world data and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching to natalizumab versus fingolimod using a United Kingdom (UK) third-party payer perspective. METHODS: Real-world data were obtained from MSBase for patients relapsing on BRACETD in the year before switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD. Three-way-multinomial-propensity-score-matched cohorts were identified, and comparisons between treatment groups were conducted for annualised relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M). Results were applied in a cost-effectiveness model over a lifetime horizon using a published Markov structure with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Other model parameters were obtained from the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available UK sources. RESULTS: The MSBase analysis found a significant reduction in ARR (rate ratio [RR] = 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.72; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.67; 95% CI 1.30-2.15; p < 0.001) for switching to natalizumab compared with BRACETD. For switching to fingolimod, the reduction in ARR (RR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.81-1.03; p = 0.133) and increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 0.99-1.72; p = 0.058) compared with BRACETD were not significant. Switching to natalizumab was associated with a significant reduction in ARR (RR = 0.70; 95% CI 0.62-0.79; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.01-1.62; p = 0.040) compared to switching to fingolimod. No evidence of difference in

BACKGROUND: There is growing interest in the issue of disease reactivation in multiple sclerosis following fingolimod cessation. Relatively little is known about modifiers of the risk of post-cessation relapse, including the delay to commencement of new therapy and prior disease activity. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the rate of relapse following cessation of fingolimod and to identify predictors of relapse following cessation. METHODS: Data were extracted from the MSBase registry in March 2019. Inclusion criteria were (a) clinically definite relapsing multiple sclerosis, (b) treatment with fingolimod for ≥ 12 months, (c) follow-up after cessation for ≥ 12 months, and (d) at least one Expanded Disability Status Scale score recorded in the 12 months before cessation. RESULTS: A total of 685 patients were identified who met criteria. The mean annualised relapse rate was 1.71 (95% CI 1.59, 1.85) in the year prior to fingolimod, 0.50 (95% CI 0.44, 0.55) on fingolimod and 0.43 (95% CI 0.38, 0.49) after fingolimod. Of these, 218 (32%) patients experienced a relapse in the first 12 months. Predictors of a higher relapse rate in the first year were: younger age at fingolimod cessation, higher relapse rate in the year prior to cessation, delaying commencement of new therapy and switching to low-efficacy therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Disease reactivation following fingolimod cessation is more common in younger patients, those with greater disease activity prior to cessation and in those who switch to a low-efficacy therapy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ≥7.0 represents the requirement for a wheelchair. Here we (i) assess the effect of ocrelizumab on time to EDSS ≥7.0 over the ORATORIO (NCT01194570) double-blind and extended controlled periods (DBP+ECP), (ii) quantify likely long-term benefits by extrapolating results, and (iii) assess the plausibility of extrapolations using an independent real-world cohort (MSBase registry; ACTRN12605000455662). METHODS: Post hoc analyses assessing time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 in two cohorts of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (baseline EDSS 3.0-6.5) were investigated in ORATORIO and MSBase. RESULTS: In the ORATORIO DBP+ECP, ocrelizumab reduced the risk of 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 (hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31-0.92; p = 0.022). Extrapolated median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.1 and 19.2 years for placebo and ocrelizumab, respectively (7.1-year delay [95% CI: -4.3 to 18.4]). In MSBase, the median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo, ocrelizumab significantly delayed time to 24-week confirmed wheelchair requirement in ORATORIO. The plausibility of the extrapolated median time to reach this milestone in the placebo group was supported by observed real-world data from MSBase. Extrapolated benefits for ocrelizumab over placebo could represent a truly meaningful delay in loss of ambulation and independence.

Background and purpose The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Methods In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Results The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29–0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). Conclusions Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

QC 20221212

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab and fingolimod are used as high-efficacy treatments in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Several observational studies comparing these two drugs have shown variable results, using different methods to control treatment indication bias and manage censoring. The objective of this empirical study was to elucidate the impact of methods of causal inference on the results of comparative effectiveness studies. METHODS: Data from three observational multiple sclerosis registries (MSBase, the Danish MS Registry and French OFSEP registry) were combined. Four clinical outcomes were studied. Propensity scores were used to match or weigh the compared groups, allowing for estimating average treatment effect for treated or average treatment effect for the entire population. Analyses were conducted both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol frameworks. The impact of the positivity assumption was also assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 5,148 relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients were included. In this well-powered sample, the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates overlapped widely. Propensity scores weighting and propensity scores matching procedures led to consistent results. Some differences were observed between average treatment effect for the entire population and average treatment effect for treated estimates. Intention-to-treat analyses were more conservative than per-protocol analyses. The most pronounced irregularities in outcomes and propensity scores were introduced by violation of the positivity assumption. CONCLUSIONS: This applied study elucidates the influence of methodological decisions on the results of comparative effectiveness studies of treatments for multiple sclerosis. According to our results, there are no material differences between conclusions obtained with propensity scores matching or propensity scores weighting given that a study is sufficiently powered, models are correctly specified and positivity assumption is ful

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the rate of return of disease activity after cessation of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study from 2 large observational MS registries: MSBase and OFSEP. Patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had ceased a disease-modifying therapy and were followed up for the subsequent 12 months were included in the analysis. The primary study outcome was annualized relapse rate in the 12 months after disease-modifying therapy discontinuation stratified by patients who did, and did not, commence a subsequent therapy. The secondary endpoint was the predictors of first relapse and disability accumulation after treatment discontinuation. RESULTS: A total of 14,213 patients, with 18,029 eligible treatment discontinuation epochs, were identified for 7 therapies. Annualized rates of relapse (ARRs) started to increase 2 months after natalizumab cessation (month 2-4 ARR 0.47, 95% CI 0.43-0.51). Commencement of a subsequent therapy within 2-4 months reduced the magnitude of disease reactivation (mean ARR difference: 0.15, 0.08-0.22). After discontinuation of fingolimod, rates of relapse increased overall (month 1-2 ARR: 0.80, 0.70-0.89) and stabilized faster in patients who started a new therapy within 1-2 months (mean ARR difference: 0.14, -0.01 to 0.29). The magnitude of disease reactivation for other therapies was low but reduced further by commencement of another treatment 1-10 months after treatment discontinuation. Predictors of relapse were a higher relapse rate in the year before cessation, female sex, younger age, and higher EDSS score. Commencement of a subsequent therapy reduced both the risk of relapse (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.72-0.81) and disability accumulation (0.73, 0.65-0.80). DISCUSSION: The rate of disease reactivation after treatment cessation differs among MS treatments, with the peaks of relapse activity ranging from 1 to 10 months in untreated cohorts that discontinued di

BACKGROUND: The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability. OBJECTIVE: To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS. METHODS: The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C. RESULTS: A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model. CONCLUSION: Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Background: effectiveness of cladribine tablets, an oral disease-modifying treatment (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS), was established in clinical trials and confirmed with real-world experience. Objectives: use real-world data to compare treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in people with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine tablets versus other oral DMTs. Methods: retrospective treatment comparisons were based on data from the international MSBase registry. Eligible pwMS started treatment with cladribine, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide tablets from 2018 to mid-2021 and were censored at treatment discontinuation/switch, death, loss to follow-up, pregnancy, or study period end. Treatment persistence was evaluated as time to discontinuation/switch; relapse outcomes included time to first relapse and annualized relapse rate (ARR). Results: cohorts included 633 pwMS receiving cladribine tablets, 1195 receiving fingolimod, 912 receiving dimethyl fumarate, and 735 receiving teriflunomide. Individuals treated with fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide switched treatment significantly more quickly than matched cladribine tablet cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 4.00 (2.54-6.32), 7.04 (4.16-11.93), and 6.52 (3.79-11.22), respectively). Cladribine tablet cohorts had significantly longer time-to-treatment discontinuation, time to first relapse, and lower ARR, compared with other oral DMT cohorts. Conclusion: cladribine tablets were associated with a significantly greater real-world treatment persistence and more favorable relapse outcomes than all oral DMT comparators., Financial support for this study was provided entirely by a contract with EMD Serono Research & Development Institute, Inc., Billerica, MA, USA, an affiliate of Merck KGaA (CrossRef Funder ID: 10.13039/100004755). The funding agreement ensured the authors’ independence in designing the study, interpreting the data, writing, and publishing the report. The following authors are employed by the sponsor: NT and SLW.

Background: Natalizumab and fingolimod are used as high-efficacy treatments in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis. Several observational studies comparing these two drugs have shown variable results, using different methods to control treatment indication bias and manage censoring. The objective of this empirical study was to elucidate the impact of methods of causal inference on the results of comparative effectiveness studies. Methods: Data from three observational multiple sclerosis registries (MSBase, the Danish MS Registry and French OFSEP registry) were combined. Four clinical outcomes were studied. Propensity scores were used to match or weigh the compared groups, allowing for estimating average treatment effect for treated or average treatment effect for the entire population. Analyses were conducted both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol frameworks. The impact of the positivity assumption was also assessed. Results: Overall, 5,148 relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis patients were included. In this well-powered sample, the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates overlapped widely. Propensity scores weighting and propensity scores matching procedures led to consistent results. Some differences were observed between average treatment effect for the entire population and average treatment effect for treated estimates. Intention-to-treat analyses were more conservative than per-protocol analyses. The most pronounced irregularities in outcomes and propensity scores were introduced by violation of the positivity assumption. Conclusions: This applied study elucidates the influence of methodological decisions on the results of comparative effectiveness studies of treatments for multiple sclerosis. According to our results, there are no material differences between conclusions obtained with propensity scores matching or propensity scores weighting given that a study is sufficiently powered, models are correctly specified and positivity assumption is

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that immunotherapy prevents long-term disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), we modeled disability outcomes in 14,717 patients. METHODS: We studied patients from MSBase followed for ≥1 year, with ≥3 visits, ≥1 visit per year, and exposed to MS therapy, and a subset of patients with ≥15-year follow-up. Marginal structural models were used to compare the cumulative hazards of 12-month confirmed increase and decrease in disability, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) step 6, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Marginal structural models were continuously readjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, disease course, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability, and MRI activity. RESULTS: A total of 14,717 patients were studied. During the treated periods, patients were less likely to experience relapses (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.82, p = 0.0016), worsening of disability (0.56, 0.38-0.82, p = 0.0026), and progress to EDSS step 6 (0.33, 0.19-0.59, p = 0.00019). Among 1,085 patients with ≥15-year follow-up, the treated patients were less likely to experience relapses (0.59, 0.50-0.70, p = 10-9) and worsening of disability (0.81, 0.67-0.99, p = 0.043). CONCLUSION: Continued treatment with MS immunotherapies reduces disability accrual by 19%-44% (95% CI 1%-62%), the risk of need of a walking aid by 67% (95% CI 41%-81%), and the frequency of relapses by 40-41% (95% CI 18%-57%) over 15 years. This study provides evidence that disease-modifying therapies are effective in improving disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting MS over the long term. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that, for patients with relapsing-remitting MS, long-term exposure to immunotherapy prevents neurologic disability.

Background: Our current understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies is limited. Objective(s): To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in MS varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Method(s): Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models (MSMs) were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. MSMs were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23 687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMT experienced 20% greater chance of disability improvement [HR 1.20 (95% CI 1.0-1.5)], 47% lower risk of disability worsening [HR 0.53 (0.39-0.71)] and 51% reduction in relapses [HR 0.49 (0.43-0.55)]. The effect of DMT on relapses and EDSS worsening was attenuated with longer MS duration and higher prior relapse rate. The effect of DMT on EDSS improvement and relapses was more evident in low EDSS categories. DMT was associated with 51% EDSS improvement in patients without new MRI lesions [HR 1.51 (1.00-2.28)] compared to 4% in those with MRI activity [HR 1.04 (0.88-1.24)]. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMT was associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR 0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR 0.58 (CI 0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR 1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR 1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, pro

Introduction: Ocrelizumab, a monoclonal antibody targeted against CD20+ B cells, has become a popular treatment for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). The effectiveness of ocrelizumab compared to other treatments is however unknown. Aim(s): To compare the effectiveness of ocrelizumab with interferon-beta, fingolimod and natalizumab in relapsing-remitting MS. Method(s): Using the MSBase registry, we identified patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated for >=6 months with ocrelizumab, interferon- beta (interferon beta-1a, interferon beta-1b subcutaneous or interferon beta-1b intramuscular), fingolimod or natalizumab. All patients required >12-month pre-treatment follow up and the minimum dataset. Patients with comparable baseline characteristics were matched with propensity score on age, sex, MS duration, EDSS, prior relapse rate, prior therapy, disease activity, MRI lesion burden (missing values imputed), reason for discontinuation of preceding therapy (imputed) and country. Annualised rate of relapses (ARR) and cumulative hazard of relapses were compared in pairwise-censored groups. Result(s): 106 patients treated with ocrelizumab were matched with 209 patients on interferon therapies with a mean age of 39 years, 0.8 relapses per year and mean EDSS of 2.4-2.5. Over a pairwise-censored mean follow up of 1.3 years, ocrelizumab was associated with lower relapse rates (ARR 0.08 vs 0.27, p<0.001) and lower risk of relapse (HR 0.30, 95%CI 0.15-0.57) than interferon-beta. 297 patients treated with ocrelizumab were matched with 811 fingolimod-treated patients with a mean age of 41 years, 0.6 relapses per year and mean EDSS of 2.7-2.8. Over a pairwisecensored mean follow up of 1.5 years, ocrelizumab was associated with lower relapse rates (ARR 0.03 vs 0.14, p<0.001) and lower risk of relapse than fingolimod (HR 0.21, 0.13-0.32). 262 ocrelizumab- treated patients were matched with 343 natalizumab treated patients with a mean age of 39 years, 0.8 relapses per year

Objective: To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Background(s): Our understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of MS therapies is limited. Design/Methods: Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Models were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence [HR=0.52 (0.44-0.61)], 48% lower risk of disability worsening [HR=0.52 (0.38-0.71)] and 33% greater chance of disability improvement [HR=1.33 (95%CI 1.0-1.5)]. The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The effect of DMTs on reducing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and in patients with prior cerebral MRI activity. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMTs were associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR=0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR=0.58 (0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR=1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR=1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, progression of disability, and increased chance of recovery from disability. The DMTs are most effective among patients with lower

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, ultraviolet B radiation exposure (UVB) and the severity of multiple sclerosis (MS). Background(s): Severity of (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding of determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS in individual patients. Design/Methods: This observational study used the global MSBase registry. Disease severity was quantified with MS Severity Score (MSSS, a decile of disability relative to a normative cohort with similar disease duration). The latitude of each study center (stratified by hemisphere) and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB and MSSS. Result(s): 46,128 patients (70% women, mean age 39+/-12, resident between latitudes 19degree35' and 56degree16', cumulative follow-up 351,196 patient-years) were included. Latitude showed a non-linear association with MS severity. Above 40degree of latitude, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (beta= 0.08, 95%CI: 0.04, 0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40degree (beta= 0.02, 95%CI: 0.06, 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 (beta= 0.5, 95%CI: 0.6, 0.4) and 18 years (beta= 0.6, 95%CI: 0.7, 0.4) as well as with lower life-time UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (beta= 1.0, 95%CI: 1.1, 0.9). Conclusion(s): In temperate zones, MS severity is associated with latitude. This association is mainly, but not exclusively, driven by UVB exposure. Thus, UVB exposure contributes to both MS susceptibility a