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4. A scalable two-stage Bayesian approach accounting for exposure measurement error in environmental epidemiology

Author

Lee, Changwoo J., Symanski, Elaine, Rammah, Amal, Kang, Dong Hun, Hopke, Philip K., and Park, Eun Sug

Subjects
Statistics - Methodology, Statistics - Applications
Abstract

Accounting for exposure measurement errors has been recognized as a crucial problem in environmental epidemiology for over two decades. Bayesian hierarchical models offer a coherent probabilistic framework for evaluating associations between environmental exposures and health effects, which take into account exposure measurement errors introduced by uncertainty in the estimated exposure as well as spatial misalignment between the exposure and health outcome data. While two-stage Bayesian analyses are often regarded as a good alternative to fully Bayesian analyses when joint estimation is not feasible, there has been minimal research on how to properly propagate uncertainty from the first-stage exposure model to the second-stage health model, especially in the case of a large number of participant locations along with spatially correlated exposures. We propose a scalable two-stage Bayesian approach, called a sparse multivariate normal (sparse MVN) prior approach, based on the Vecchia approximation for assessing associations between exposure and health outcomes in environmental epidemiology. We compare its performance with existing approaches through simulation. Our sparse MVN prior approach shows comparable performance with the fully Bayesian approach, which is a gold standard but is impossible to implement in some cases. We investigate the association between source-specific exposures and pollutant (nitrogen dioxide (NO$_2$))-specific exposures and birth outcomes for 2012 in Harris County, Texas, using several approaches, including the newly developed method., Comment: 34 pages, 8 figures more...

Published
2023

14. E-Cigarettes and Cardiopulmonary Health

Author

Tarran, Robert, Barr, R Graham, Benowitz, Neal L, Bhatnagar, Aruni, Chu, Hong W, Dalton, Pamela, Doerschuk, Claire M, Drummond, M Bradley, Gold, Diane R, Goniewicz, Maciej L, Gross, Eric R, Hansel, Nadia N, Hopke, Philip K, Kloner, Robert A, Mikheev, Vladimir B, Neczypor, Evan W, Pinkerton, Kent E, Postow, Lisa, Rahman, Irfan, Samet, Jonathan M, Salathe, Matthias, Stoney, Catherine M, Tsao, Philip S, Widome, Rachel, Xia, Tian, Xiao, DaLiao, and Wold, Loren E more...

Subjects
Medical Physiology, Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems, Prevention, Tobacco, Pediatric, Generic health relevance, Cardiovascular, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Young Adult, Humans, Nicotine, Tobacco Products, Lung, Cardiovascular Diseases, e-cigarette, cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, policy, cessation, Medical physiology
Abstract

E-cigarettes have surged in popularity over the last few years, particularly among youth and young adults. These battery-powered devices aerosolize e-liquids, comprised of propylene glycol and vegetable glycerin, typically with nicotine, flavors, and stabilizers/humectants. Although the use of combustible cigarettes is associated with several adverse health effects including multiple pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases, the effects of e-cigarettes on both short- and long-term health have only begun to be investigated. Given the recent increase in the popularity of e-cigarettes, there is an urgent need for studies to address their potential adverse health effects, particularly as many researchers have suggested that e-cigarettes may pose less of a health risk than traditional combustible cigarettes and should be used as nicotine replacements. This report is prepared for clinicians, researchers, and other health care providers to provide the current state of knowledge on how e-cigarette use might affect cardiopulmonary health, along with research gaps to be addressed in future studies. more...

Published
2021

15. Assessing Human Exposure to SVOCs in Materials, Products, and Articles: A Modular Mechanistic Framework

Author

Eichler, Clara MA, Hubal, Elaine A Cohen, Xu, Ying, Cao, Jianping, Bi, Chenyang, Weschler, Charles J, Salthammer, Tunga, Morrison, Glenn C, Koivisto, Antti Joonas, Zhang, Yinping, Mandin, Corinne, Wei, Wenjuan, Blondeau, Patrice, Poppendieck, Dustin, Liu, Xiaoyu, Delmaar, Christiaan JE, Fantke, Peter, Jolliet, Olivier, Shin, Hyeong-Moo, Diamond, Miriam L, Shiraiwa, Manabu, Zuend, Andreas, Hopke, Philip K, von Goetz, Natalie, Kulmala, Markku, and Little, John C more...

Subjects
Prevention, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, Aetiology, Air Pollutants, Air Pollution, Indoor, Dust, Humans, Organic Chemicals, Volatile Organic Compounds, Environmental Sciences
Abstract

A critical review of the current state of knowledge of chemical emissions from indoor sources, partitioning among indoor compartments, and the ensuing indoor exposure leads to a proposal for a modular mechanistic framework for predicting human exposure to semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs). Mechanistically consistent source emission categories include solid, soft, frequent contact, applied, sprayed, and high temperature sources. Environmental compartments are the gas phase, airborne particles, settled dust, indoor surfaces, and clothing. Identified research needs are the development of dynamic emission models for several of the source emission categories and of estimation strategies for critical model parameters. The modular structure of the framework facilitates subsequent inclusion of new knowledge, other chemical classes of indoor pollutants, and additional mechanistic processes relevant to human exposure indoors. The framework may serve as the foundation for developing an open-source community model to better support collaborative research and improve access for application by stakeholders. Combining exposure estimates derived using this framework with toxicity data for different end points and toxicokinetic mechanisms will accelerate chemical risk prioritization, advance effective chemical management decisions, and protect public health. more...

Published
2021

18. The detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in indoor air of dental clinics during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Bazzazpour, Shahriyar, Rahmatinia, Masoumeh, Mohebbi, Seyed Reza, Hadei, Mostafa, Shahsavani, Abbas, Hopke, Philip K., Houshmand, Behzad, Raeisi, Alireza, Jafari, Ahmad Jonidi, Yarahmadi, Maryam, Farhadi, Mohsen, Hasanzadeh, Vajihe, Kermani, Majid, Vaziri, Mohmmad Hossien, Tanhaei, Mohammad, Zali, Mohammad Reza, and Alipour, Mohammad Reza more...

Published
2022
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30. Spatial-temporal variability of aerosol sources based on chemical composition and particle number size distributions in an urban settlement influenced by metallurgical industry

Author

Pokorná, Petra, Leoni, Cecilia, Schwarz, Jaroslav, Ondráček, Jakub, Ondráčková, Lucie, Vodička, Petr, Zíková, Naděžda, Moravec, Pavel, Bendl, Jan, Klán, Miroslav, Hovorka, Jan, Zhao, Yongjing, Cliff, Steven S., Ždímal, Vladimír, and Hopke, Philip K. more...

Published
2020
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31. Assessment of Urban Air Quality in Indonesia

Author

Santoso, Muhayatun, Lestiani, Diah Dwiana, Kurniawati, Syukria, Damastuti, Endah, Kusmartini, Indah, Atmodjo, Djoko Prakoso Dwi, Sari, Dyah Kumala, Hopke, Philip K., Mukhtar, Rita, Muhtarom, Tamrin, Tjahyadi, Agus, Parian, Sukadi, Kholik, Nur, Sutrisno, Dimas Ageng, Wahyudi, Dwi, Sitorus, Timora Diliyani, Djamilus, Jasmiyati, Riadi, Ahmad, Supriyanto, Jen, Dahyar, Nurhayana, Sondakh, Stenly, Hogendorp, Karelise, Wahyuni, Nurdian, Bejawan, I. Gede, and Suprayadi, Lalu Syakhrizal more...

Published
2020
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34. Block Tensor Decomposition for Source Apportionment of Air Pollution

Author

Hopke, Philip K., Leung, Maggie, Li, Na, and Navasca, Carmeliza

Subjects
Mathematics - Numerical Analysis
Abstract

The ambient particulate chemical composition data with three particle diameter sizes (2.5mmcenter="" in="" allen="" park="" detroit,="" mi="" is="" examined.="" standard="" multiway="" (tensor)="" methods="" like="" parafac="" tucker="" tensor="" decompositions="" have="" been="" applied="" extensively="" to="" many="" chemical="" data.="" however,="" for="" multiple="" particle="" sizes,="" the="" source="" apportionment="" analysis="" calls="" novel="" factor="" analysis.="" we="" apply="" regularized="" block="" decomposition="" air="" sample="" particular,="" use="" term="" (btd)="" rank-(l;l;1)="" form="" identify="" nine="" pollution="" sources="" (fe+zn,="" sulfur="" with="" dust,="" road="" two="" types="" of="" metal="" works,="" salt,="" local="" sulfate,="" homogeneous="" cloud="" sulfate).="" <="" p=""> more...

Published
2011

38. Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Author

Bond, T. C, Doherty, S. J, Fahey, D. W, Forster, P. M, Berntsen, T., DeAngelo, B. J, Flanner, M. G, Ghan, S., Kärcher, B., Koch, D., Kinne, S., Kondo, Y., Quinn, P. K, Sarofim, M. C, Schultz, M. G, Schulz, M., Venkataraman, C., Zhang, H., Zhang, S., Bellouin, N., Guttikunda, S. K, Hopke, P. K, Jacobson, M. Z, Kaiser, J. W, Klimont, Z., Lohmann, U., Schwarz, J. P, Shindell, D., Storelvmo, T., Warren, S. G, and Zender, C. S more...

Subjects
black carbon, climate forcing, aerosol
Abstract

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr(-1) in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m(-2) with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m(-2). Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m(-2). Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m(-2) with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m(-2). Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m(-2), is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (-0.50 to +1.08) W m(-2) during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (-0.06 W m(-2) with 90% uncertainty bounds of -1.45 to +1.29 W m(-2)).The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates. more...

Published
2013

44. Global Air Quality and COVID-19 Pandemic: Do We Breathe Cleaner Air?

Author

Torkmahalleh, Mehdi Amouei, Akhmetvaliyeva, Zarina, Omran, Ali Darvishi, Omran, Faezeh Darvish, Kazemitabar, Mohadeseh, Naseri, Mahtab, Naseri, Motahareh, Sharifi, Hamed, Malekipirbazari, Milad, Adotey, Enoch Kwasi, Gorjinezhad, Soudabeh, Eghtesadi, Neda, Sabanov, Sergei, Alastuey, Andrés, de Fátima Andrade, María, Buonanno, Giorgio, Carbone, Samara, Cárdenas-Fuentes, Diego Ernesto, Cassee, Flemming R., Dai, Qili, Henríquez, Andrés, Hopke, Philip K., Keronen, Petri, Khwaja, Haider Abbas, Kim, Jong, Kulmala, Markku, Kumar, Prashant, Kushta, Jonilda, Kuula, Joel, Massagué, Jordi, Mitchell, Tamsin, Mooibroek, Dennis, Morawska, Lidia, Niemi, Jarkko V., Ngagine, Soulemane Halif, Norman, Michael, Oyama, Beatríz, Oyola, Pedro, Öztürk, Fatma, Petäjä, Tuukka, Querol, Xavier, Rashidi, Yousef, Reyes, Felipe, Ross-Jones, Matthew, Salthammer, Tunga, Savvides, Chrysanthos, Stabile, Luca, Sjöberg, Karin, Söderlund, Karin, Raman, Ramya Sunder, Timonen, Hilkka, Umezawa, Masakazu, Viana, Mar, and Xie, Shanju more...

Published
2021
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45. Exposure to Low-Level Air Pollution and Hyperglycemia Markers during Pregnancy: A Repeated Measure Analysis

Author

Lin, Yan, Chen, Ruoxue, Ge, Yihui, Brunner, Jessica, Hopke, Philip K., Miller, Richard K., Thornburg, Loralei L., Stevens, Timothy, Barrett, Emily S., Harrington, Donald K., Thurston, Sally W., Murphy, Susan K., O’Connor, Thomas G., Rich, David Q., and Zhang, Junfeng Jim more...

Abstract

Epidemiologic evidence has emerged showing an association between exposure to air pollution and increased risks of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). This study examines the effect of low-level air pollution exposure on a subclinical biomarker of hyperglycemia (i.e., HbA1c) in pregnant people without diabetes before conception. We measured HbA1c in 577 samples repeatedly collected from 224 pregnant people in Rochester, NY, and estimated residential concentrations of PM2.5and NO2using high-resolution spatiotemporal models. We observed a U-shaped trajectory of HbA1c during pregnancy with average HbA1c levels of 5.13 (±0.52), 4.97 (±0.54), and 5.43 (±0.40)% in early-, mid-, and late pregnancy, respectively. After adjustment for the U-shaped trajectory and classic GDM risk factors, each interquartile range increase in 10 week NO2concentration (8.0 ppb) was associated with 0.09% (95% CI: 0.02 to 0.16%) and 0.18% (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.28%) increases in HbA1c over the entire pregnancy and in late pregnancy, respectively. These associations remained robust among participants without GDM. Using separate distributed lag models, we identified a period between 8th and 14th gestational weeks as critical windows responsible for increased levels of HbA1c measured at 14th, 22nd, and 30th gestational weeks. Our results suggest that low-level air pollution contributes to hyperglycemia in medically low-risk pregnant people. more...

Published
2024
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