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Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change.

Staphylococcus aureus is a facultative intracellular pathogen of human macrophages, which facilitates chronic infection. The genotypes, pathways, and mutations influencing that phenotype remain incompletely explored. Here, we used two distinct strategies to ascertain S. aureus gene mutations affecting pathogenesis in macrophages. First, we analyzed isolates collected serially from chronic cystic fibrosis (CF) respiratory infections. We found that S. aureus strains evolved greater macrophage invasion capacity during chronic human infection. Bacterial genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified 127 candidate genes for which mutation was significantly associated with macrophage pathogenesis in vivo. In parallel, we passaged laboratory S. aureus strains in vitro to select for increased infection of human THP-1 derived macrophages, which identified 15 candidate genes by whole-genome sequencing. Functional validation of candidate genes using isogenic transposon mutant knockouts and CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) knockdowns confirmed virulence contributions from 37 of 39 tested genes (95%) implicated by in vivo studies and 7 of 10 genes (70%) ascertained from in vitro selection, with one gene in common to the two strategies. Validated genes included 17 known virulence factors (39%) and 27 newly identified by our study (61%), some encoding functions not previously associated with macrophage pathogenesis. Most genes (80%) positively impacted macrophage invasion when disrupted, consistent with the phenotype readily arising from loss-of-function mutations in vivo. This work reveals genes and mechanisms that contribute to S. aureus infection of macrophages, highlights differences in mutations underlying convergent phenotypes arising from in vivo and in vitro systems, and supports the relevance of S. aureus macrophage pathogenesis during chronic respiratory infection in CF. Additional studies will be needed to illuminate the exact mechanisms by which implicated mutations affect their phenotypes. Author summary: Staphylococcus aureus is a significant cause of disease and can cause chronic infections that are extremely difficult to treat. One of the reasons that S. aureus persists so effectively in the human body is its ability to enter and survive within macrophages, which protects the bacteria from immune clearance and antibiotic therapies. A better understanding of the genes and mechanisms that S. aureus uses to infect macrophages could lead to new, more effective treatments for chronic infection. Here, we identified gene mutations associated with improved macrophage pathogenesis in S. aureus by studying isolates from chronic respiratory infection in vivo and using a laboratory macrophage model in vitro. We identified multiple, previously unknown genes and functions that can influence S. aureus macrophage pathogenesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the impacts of disturbances such as oil spills on marine species can be challenging. Natural environmental variability, human responses to the disturbance (e.g., fisheries closures), the complex life histories of the species being monitored, and limited pre-spill data can make detection of effects of oil spills difficult. Using long-term monitoring data from the state of Louisiana (USA), we applied novel spatiotemporal approaches to identify anomalies in species occurrence and catch rates. We included covariates (salinity, temperature, turbidity) to help isolate unusual events. While some species showed evidence of unlikely temporal anomalies in occurrence or catch rates, we found that the majority of the observed anomalies were also before the Deepwater Horizon event. Several species-gear combinations suggested upticks in the spatial variability immediately following the spill, but most species indicated no trend. Across species-gear combinations, there was no clear evidence for synchronous or asynchronous responses in occurrence or catch rates across sites following the spill. Our results are in general agreement to other analyses of monitoring data that detected small impacts, but in contrast to recent results from ecological modeling that showed much larger effects of the oil spill on fish and shellfish.

The presentation by Elizabeth Holmes, PhD, summarized the integration of character and leadership development in the education of healthcare professionals. Citing the mission, vision, values, graduate attributes, and various examples of current programs and initiatives from both the United States Naval Academy and the University of Botswana, the presentation explained the importance of professional development based on ethical leadership and courageous moral decision making. In this regard, this distinguished lecture gave visible expression to the conference title, "Understanding Ethics and Integrity in Healthcare, Medicine, and Research." (Contains 1 figure.)

When faced with a morally charged situation, individuals engage in an ethical decision-making process to resolve the ethical dilemma. This paper outlines a model that describes the steps in the ethical decision-making process and identifies situational factors, collectively termed moral intensity, which may influence this process. The use of a case study, presenting an ethical dilemma relevant for professionals, offers an opportunity to apply the ethical decision-making model. This model can be used as a teaching and training tool to enhance research administrators' professional development in research ethics. (Contains 1 figure.)