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Dispersal of benthic species in the sea is mediated primarily through small, vulnerable larvae that must survive minutes to months as members of the plankton community while being transported by strong, dynamic currents. As climate change alters ocean conditions, the dispersal of these larvae will be affected, with pervasive ecological and evolutionary consequences. We review the impacts of oceanic changes on larval transport, physiology, and behavior. We then discuss the implications for population connectivity and recruitment and evaluate life history strategies that will affect susceptibility to the effects of climate change on their dispersal patterns, with implications for understanding selective regimes in a future ocean. We find that physical oceanographic changes will impact dispersal by transporting larvae in different directions or inhibiting their movements while changing environmental factors, such as temperature, pH, salinity, oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, and turbidity, will affect the survival of larvae and alter their behavior. Reduced dispersal distance may make local adaptation more likely in well-connected populations with high genetic variation while reduced dispersal success will lower recruitment with implications for fishery stocks. Increased dispersal may spur adaptation by increasing genetic diversity among previously disconnected populations as well as increasing the likelihood of range expansions. We hypothesize that species with planktotrophic (feeding), calcifying, or weakly swimming larvae with specialized adult habitats will be most affected by climate change. We also propose that the adaptive value of retentive larval behaviors may decrease where transport trajectories follow changing climate envelopes and increase where transport trajectories drive larvae toward increasingly unsuitable conditions. Our holistic framework, combined with knowledge of regional ocean conditions and larval traits, can be used to produce powerful predictions of expected impacts on larval dispersal as well as the consequences for connectivity, range expansion, or recruitment. Based on our findings, we recommend that future studies take a holistic view of dispersal incorporating biological and oceanographic impacts of climate change rather than solely focusing on oceanography or physiology. Genetic and paleontological techniques can be used to examine evolutionary impacts of altered dispersal in a future ocean, while museum collections and expedition records can inform modern-day range shifts.

Blooms of Alexandrium catenella threaten to disrupt subsistence, recreational, and commercial shellfish harvest in Alaska, as the paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) produced pose a serious public health risk and can lead to costly shutdowns for shellfish farmers. Current methods of PST detection in the region range from monitoring programs utilizing net tows to detect A. catenella to direct shellfish tissue testing via mouse bioassay (MBA) for commercial aquaculture harvest, as well as various optional testing methods for subsistence and recreational harvesters. The efficacy and feasibility of these methods vary, and they have not been directly compared in Southeast Alaska. In this study, we sought to assess and compare A. catenella and PST early detection methods to determine which can provide the most effective and accurate warning of A. catenella blooms or PST events. We found microscope counts to be variable and prone to missing lower numbers of A. catenella, which may be indicative of bloom formation. However, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) significantly correlated with microscope counts and was able to effectively detect even low numbers of A. catenella on all sampling days. Paralytic shellfish toxin concentrations measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and MBA significantly correlated with each other, qPCR, and some microscope counts. These results show that qPCR is an effective tool for both monitoring A. catenella and serving as a proxy for PSTs. Further work is needed to refine qPCR protocols in this system to provide bloom warnings on an actionable timescale for the aquaculture industry and other shellfish harvesters. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:2189-2202. © 2024 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA., (© 2024 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)

Background and Aims: Coastal Alaska contains vast kelp habitat that supports diverse marine and human communities. Over the past century, the North Pacific Ocean has undergone oceanographic and ecological regime shifts that have the potential to influence the structure and function of kelp ecosystems strongly. However, the remoteness and complexity of the glacially carved region precludes the regular monitoring efforts that would be necessary to detect such changes., Methods: To begin to fill this critical knowledge gap, we drew upon historical and modern surveys to analyse the change in spatial coverage and species composition of canopy kelp between two time points (1913 and the early 2000s to 2010s). We also incorporated decadal surveys on sea otter range expansion following complete extirpation and reintroduction to assess the influence of sea otter recovery on the spatial extent of canopy kelp., Key Results: We found increases in the spatial extent of canopy kelp throughout the Gulf of Alaska where there was coverage from both surveys. Kelp in Southcentral Alaska showed extensive recovery after the catastrophic Novarupta volcano. Kelp in Southeast Alaska showed persistence and spatial increase that closely matched increases in the range of sea otters. Observations of thermally tolerant kelp species increased more than observations of cold-adapted species between the two surveys., Conclusions: Contrary to trends observed at lower latitudes, the kelp forests that ring the Gulf of Alaska have been remarkably stable and even increased in the past century, despite oceanographic and ecosystem changes. To improve monitoring, we propose identification of sentinel kelp beds for regular monitoring to detect changes to these iconic and foundational canopy kelp species more readily., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.)

Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems in many ways, including raising temperatures and leading to ocean acidification. From 2014 to 2016, an extensive marine heat wave extended along the west coast of North America and had devastating effects on numerous species, including bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana). Bull kelp is an important foundation species in coastal ecosystems and can be affected by marine heat waves and ocean acidification; however, the impacts have not been investigated on sensitive early life stages. To determine the effects of changing temperatures and carbonate levels on Northern California's bull kelp populations, we collected sporophylls from mature bull kelp individuals in Point Arena, CA. At the Bodega Marine Laboratory, we released spores from field-collected bull kelp, and cultured microscopic gametophytes in a common garden experiment with a fully factorial design crossing modern conditions (11.63 ± 0.54°C and pH 7.93 ± 0.26) with observed extreme climate conditions (15.56 ± 0.83°C and 7.64 ± 0.32 pH). Our results indicated that both increased temperature and decreased pH influenced growth and egg production of bull kelp microscopic stages. Increased temperature resulted in decreased gametophyte survival and offspring production. In contrast, decreased pH had less of an effect but resulted in increased gametophyte survival and offspring production. Additionally, increased temperature significantly impacted reproductive timing by causing female gametophytes to produce offspring earlier than under ambient temperature conditions. Our findings can inform better predictions of the impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystems and provide key insights into environmental dynamics regulating the bull kelp lifecycle., (© 2023 Phycological Society of America.)

Kelp forests worldwide are threatened by both climate change and localized anthropogenic impacts. Species with cold-temperate, subpolar, or polar distributions are projected to experience range contractions over the coming decades, which may be exacerbated by climatic events such as marine heatwaves and increased freshwater and sediment input from rapidly contracting glaciers. The northeast Pacific has an extensive history of harvesting and cultivating kelps for subsistence, commercial, and other uses, and, therefore, declines in kelp abundance and distributional shifts will have significant impacts on this region. Gaps in our understanding of how cold-temperate kelp species respond to climate stressors have limited our ability to forecast the status of kelp forests in future oceans, which hampers conservation and management efforts. Here, we conducted a structured literature review to provide a synthesis of the impacts of multiple climate-related stressors on kelp forests in the northeast Pacific, assess existing knowledge gaps, and suggest potential research priorities. We chose to focus on temperature, salinity, sediment load, and light as the stressors most likely to vary and impact kelps as climate change progresses. Our results revealed biases in the existing literature toward studies investigating the impacts of temperature, or temperature in combination with light. Other stressors, particularly salinity and sediment load, have received much less focus despite rapidly changing conditions in high-latitude regions. Furthermore, multiple stressor studies appear to focus on kelp sporophytes, and it is necessary that we improve our understanding of how kelp microstages will be affected by stressor combinations. Finally, studies that investigate the potential of experimental transplantation or selective cultivation of genotypes resilient to environmental changes are lacking and would be useful for the conservation of wild populations and the seaweed aquaculture industry., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Kelp forests are in decline across much of their range due to place-specific combinations of local and global stressors. Declines in kelp abundance can lead to cascading losses of biodiversity and productivity with far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences. The Salish Sea is a hotspot of kelp diversity where many species of kelp provide critical habitat and food for commercially, ecologically, and culturally important fish and invertebrate species. However, like other regions, kelp forests in much of the Salish Sea are in rapid decline. Data gaps and limited long-term monitoring have hampered attempts to identify and manage for specific drivers of decline, despite the documented urgency to protect these important habitats. To address these knowledge gaps, we gathered a focus group of experts on kelp in the Salish Sea to identify perceived direct and indirect stressors facing kelp forests. We then conducted a comprehensive literature review of peer-reviewed studies from the Salish Sea and temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide to assess the level of support for the pathways identified by the experts, and we identified knowledge gaps to prioritize future research. Our results revealed major research gaps within the Salish Sea and highlighted the potential to use expert knowledge for making informed decisions in the region. We found high support for the pathways in the global literature, with variable consensus on the relationship between stressors and responses across studies, confirming the influence of local ecological, oceanographic, and anthropogenic contexts and threshold effects on stressor-response relationships. Finally, we prioritized areas for future research in the Salish Sea. This study demonstrates the value expert opinion has to inform management decisions. These methods are readily adaptable to other ecosystem management contexts, and the results of this case study can be immediately applied to kelp management., Competing Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare., (© 2022 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)