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Background: Community-acquired UTI is the most common bacterial infection managed in general medical practice that can lead to life-threatening outcomes. While UTIs are primarily caused by Escherichia coli colonizing the patient's gut, it is unclear whether the gut resident E. coli profiles can predict the person's risks for UTI and optimal antimicrobial treatments. Thus, we conducted an eighteen-month long community-based observational study of fecal E. coli colonization and UTI in women aged 50 years and above., Methods and Findings: We enrolled a total of 1,804 women distributed among age groups 50-59 yo (437 participants), 60-69 yo (632), 70-79 yo (532), and above 80 yo (203), lacking antibiotic prescriptions for at least one year. The provided fecal samples were plated for the presence of E. coli and other enterobacteria resistant to trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (TMP/STX), ciprofloxacin (CIP) and 3 rd generation cephalosporins (3GC). E. coli was also characterized as belonging to the pandemic multi-drug resistant clonal groups ST131 (subclone H30) and ST1193. Following sample collection, the women were monitored for 18 months for occurrence of UTI. E. coli was cultured from 90.8% fecal samples, with 24.1% containing bacteria resistant to TMP/STX, 19.4% to CIP, and 7.9% to 3GC. In 62.5% samples, only all-susceptible E. coli were present. Overall, there were no age-related differences in resistance prevalence. However, while the total E. coli H30 and ST1193 carriage rates were similar (4.3% and 4.2%, respectively), there was a notable increase of H30 carriage with age (P = .001), while carriage decreased with age for ST1193 (P = .057).Within 18 months, 184 women (10.2%) experienced at least one episode of UTI - 10.9% among the gut E. coli carriers and 3.0% among the non-carriers (P=.0013). The UTI risk among carriers of E. coli H30 but not ST1193 was significantly above average (24.3%, P = .0004). The UTI probability increased with age, occurring in 6.4% of 50-59 yo and 19.7% of 80+ yo (P<.001), with the latter group being especially at high risk for UTI, if they were colonized by E. coli H30 (40.0%, P<.001). E. coli was identified in 88.1% of urine samples, with 16.1% resistant to TMP/STX, 16.1% to CIP, 4.2% to 3GC and 73.1% to none of the antibiotics. Among tested urinary E. coli resistant to antibiotics, 86.1% matched the resistance profile of E. coli in the fecal samples, with the clonotyping and whole genome sequencing confirming the matching strains' identity. Positive predictive value (PPV) of using gut resistance profiles to predict UTI pathogens' susceptibility to TMP/STX, CIP, 3GC and all three antibiotics were 98.4%, 98.3%, 96.6% and 95.3%, respectively. Corresponding negative predictive values (NPV) were 63.0%, 54.8%, 44.4% and 75.8%, respectively. The AUC ROC curve values for the accuracy of fecal diagnostic testing for the prediction of UTI resistance ranged .86-.89. The fecal test-guided drug-bug mismatch rate for empirical (pre-culture) prescription of TMP-SXT or CIP is reduced to ≤2% in 89.6% of patients and 94.8% of patients with an optional 3GC prescription., Conclusion: The resistance profile and clonal identity of gut colonizing E. coli , along with the carrier's age, can inform personalized prediction of a patients' UTI risk and the UTI pathogen's antibiotic susceptibility within an 18-month period.

Background : Fluoroquinolone use for urinary tract infections has been steadily declining. Gut microbiota is the main reservoir for uropathogenic Escherichia coli but whether the carriage of fluoroquinolone-resistant E. coli has been changing is unknown. Methods . We determined the frequency of isolation and other characteristics of E. coli nonsuceptible to fluoroquinolones (at ³0.5 mg/L of ciprofloxacin) in 515 and 1605 E. coli -positive fecal samples collected in 2015 and 2021, respectively, from non-antibiotic- taking women of age 50+ receiving care in the Seattle area Kaiser Permanente Washington healthcare system. Results . Between 2015 and 2021 the prescription of fluoroquinolones dropped nearly three-fold in the study population. During the same period, the rates of gut carriage of fluoroquinolone-resistant E. coli increased from 14.4 % to 19.9% (P=.005), driven by a significant increase of isolates from the recently emerged, pandemic multi-drug resistant clonal group ST1193 (1.7% to 4.3%; P=.007) and those with an incomplete set of or no fluoroquinolone-resistance determining mutations (2.3% to 7.5%; P<.001). While prevalence of the resistance-associated mobile genes among the isolates dropped from 64.1% to 32.6% (P<.001), co-resistance to third generation cephalosporins has increased 21.5% to 33.1%, P=.044). Conclusion . Despite reduction in fluoroquinolone prescriptions, gut carriage of fluoroquinolone-resistant uropathogenic E. coli increased with a rise of previously sporadic lineages and co-resistance to third generation cephalosporins. Thus, to reduce the rates of antibiotic resistant urinary tract infections, greater focus should be on controlling the gut carriage of resistant bacteria.