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Many studies indicate that the flowering abundance of boreal trees strongly correlates with the weather conditions of the previous summer. This study developed prediction models for the seed crops of Norway spruce and Scots pine using weather variables one and two years prior to flowering year as predictors. Weather data, systematically recorded at many weather stations, were obtained from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Seed crop monitoring data came from 22 spruce stands and 44 pine stands. In every stand, seed crop has been monitored for many years, the longest continuous period being 45 years. Monthly mean temperatures, monthly rainfalls, and periodical temperature sums were used as predictors in the seed crop models. Generally, both tree species flowered abundantly one year after a warm summer and two years after a cool summer. While the models only explained about 45% of the variation in the annual seed crop, they accurately predicted good and bad seed years: when the models predicted good seed crops the likelihood to have at least a medium seed crop was very high and when the models predicted small seed crops, the likelihood to obtain medium or good seed crop was very low. Therefore, the models reliably predict if a particular year will be a good seed year or a poor seed year. These predictions can be used in forestry practice for proper timing of natural regeneration activities, and when activities in seed orchards are planned.

Irruptions by boreal seed‐eating and frugivorous birds are assumed to be driven by the production of seeds and fruits, crops of which are highly variable between years. Using data from Sweden, we tested whether irruptions of Common Crossbills Loxia curvirostra were correlated with low Norway Spruce Picea abies seed production in the same year as the irruption and/or high seed production in the year prior to an irruption. Similar tests were made for Parrot Crossbill Loxia pytyopsittacus irruptions in relation to Scots Pine Pinus sylvestris seed production. In northern Europe, these conifers represent the key food species of the two crossbill species, respectively. Despite differing times that seeds take to mature and asynchronous seed production between the two conifer species, including a 3‐year cycle for Norway Spruce, the two crossbill species often irrupted in the same year as one another. Analyses showed that irruptions into Britain and other parts of western Europe by both crossbill species were correlated with low seed production by Norway Spruce in Sweden. Low seed production by Scots Pine had a marginally non‐significant additive effect on both crossbill species. In a second set of analyses, the best‐fitting model was one in which low seed production by both conifers in a given year and high seed production in the previous year were each correlated with large numbers of irrupting Common and Parrot Crossbills. The models indicate that the incidental co‐occurrence of low seed production of Norway Spruce and Scots Pine in a given year, after a year of high seed production, may result in an irruption. The seed production of Norway Spruce and Scots Pine in Sweden was correlated with production by the same species in Finland, indicating widespread synchrony of cropping across northern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Understanding fluctuations in plant reproductive investment can constitute a key challenge in ecology, conservation and management. Masting events of trees (i.e. the intermittent and synchronous production of abundant seeding material) is an extreme example of such fluctuations. Our objective was to establish the degree of spatial and temporal synchrony in common four masting tree species in boreal Finland and account for potential causal drivers of these patterns. Methods: We investigated the spatial intraspecific and temporal interspecific fluctuations in annual seed production of four tree species in Finland, silver birch Betula pendula Roth, downy birch Betula pubescens Ehrh., Norway spruce Picea abies (L.) H.Karst. and rowanberry Sorbus aucuparia L. We also tested to see whether variations in seed production were linked to annual weather conditions. Seeding abundance data were derived from tens of stands per species across large spatial scales within Finland during 1979 to 2014 (for rowanberries only 1986 to 2014). Important Findings: All species showed spatial synchrony in seed production at scales up to 1000 km. Annual estimates of seed production were strongly correlated between species. Spring and summer temperatures explained most variation in crop sizes of tree species with 0-to 2-year time lags, whereas rainfall had relatively little influence. Warm weather during flowering (May temperature) in the flowering year (Year t) and 2 years before (t−2) were correlated with seed production. However, high May temperatures during the previous year (t−1) adversely affected seed production. Summer temperatures in Year t−1 was positively correlated with seed production, likely because this parameter enhances the development of flower primordials, but the effect was negative with a time lag of 2 years. The negative feedback in temperature coefficients is also likely due to patterns of resource allocation, as abundant flowering and seed production in these species is thought to reduce the subsequent initiation of potential new flower buds. Since the most important weather variables also showed spatial correlation up to 1000 km, weather parameters likely explain much of the spatial and temporal synchrony in seed production of these four studied tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil carbon models serving national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories need precise litter input estimates that typically originate from regionally-averaged and species-specific biomass turnover rates. We compared the foliar turnover rates estimated from long-term measurements by two methods: the needle-cohort based turnover rates (NT; 1064 Scots pine and Norway spruce stands), used in Finnish GHG inventory, and litterfall-biomass based turnover rates (LT; 40 Scots pine, Norway spruce, and silver and downy birch stands). For evergreens, regionally averaged NT values (± SD) (0.139 ± 0.01, 0.1 ± 0.009 for spruce south and north of 64°N, and 0.278 ± 0.016, 0.213 ± 0.028 for pine, respectively) were greater than those used in the GHG inventory model in Finland (0.1, 0.05 for spruce in the south and north, and 0.245, 0.154 for pine, respectively). For deciduous forests, averaged LT values ± SD (0.784 ± 0.162, 0.634 ± 0.093 for birch in the south and north) were close to that (0.79) currently used for the whole of Finland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both drought and fungal disease increase needle litterfall of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees, but most factors causing annual variation in needle litterfall are poorly understood. We hypothesized that radial growth and weather conditions favorable to growth correlate positively with needle litterfall with a lag equal to the number of needle cohorts (here being 5-6). We studied the time series of needle litterfall, stem increment, pollen cone litter and daily weather conditions in a Scots pine stand over 43 years (1961-2004). The cross-correlations of standardized time series were estimated with various lags. Model predictions of annual needle litterfall were tested against independent data. Changes in annual growth and needle litterfall correlated with lags of 0 and 4 years. The best predictors for needle litterfall were May to mid July temperature sum with a lag of 4 years, May rainfall with a lag of 2 years and September temperature with a lag of 6 years. Pollen cone litter correlated negatively with needle litterfall with a lag of 2 years. The study provided empirical evidence that needle litterfall of Scots pine in northern Finland is influenced by needle production and needle mass development that occurred 4 to 6 years earlier.