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294 results on '"Hoerling, Martin P."'

2. Critical Effects of Precipitation on Future Colorado River Flow.

Author

Hoerling, Martin P., Eischeid, Jon K., Diaz, Henry F., Rajagopolan, Balaji, and Kuhn, Eric

Subjects
*PRECIPITATION variability, *ATMOSPHERIC models, *WASTE recycling, *HYDROLOGICAL forecasting, *GLOBAL warming
Abstract

Of concern to Colorado River management, as operating guidelines post-2026 are being considered, is whether water resource recovery from low flows during 2000–20 is possible. Here, we analyze new simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to determine plausible climate impacts on Colorado River flows for 2026–50 when revised guidelines would operate. We constrain projected flows for Lees Ferry, the gauge through which 85% of the river flow passes, using its estimated sensitivity to meteorological variability together with CMIP6-projected precipitation and temperature changes. The critical importance of precipitation, especially its natural variability, is emphasized. Model projections indicate increased precipitation in the upper Colorado River basin due to climate change, which alone increases river flows by 5%–7% (relative to a 2000–20 climatology). Depending on the river's temperature sensitivity, this wet signal compensates for some, if not all, of the depleting effects of basin warming. Considerable internal decadal precipitation variability (∼5% of the climatological mean) is demonstrated, driving a greater range of plausible Colorado River flow changes for 2026–50 than previously surmised from treatment of temperature impacts alone: the overall precipitation-induced Lees Ferry flow changes span from −25% to +40%, contrasting with a range from −30% to −5% from expected warming effects only. Consequently, extreme low and high flows are more likely. Lees Ferry flow projections, conditioned on initial drought states akin to 2000–20, reveal substantial recovery odds for water resources, albeit with elevated risks of even further flow declines than in recent decades. Significance Statement: Increasing temperatures have led to concerns that Colorado River flows will be permanently reduced due to global warming. Here, we analyze precipitation, surface temperature, and streamflow (at Lees Ferry) in the upper Colorado River basin since 1895 revealing precipitation to be the largest contributor to runoff variability while temperature variability has been a much smaller contributor. New climate model projections indicate increased precipitation in the upper basin due to global warming, acting to increase river flows by 5%–7% during 2026–50. This wet signal compensates for some of the depleting effects from further basinwide warming. Critically, the large intrinsic variability in precipitation is demonstrated to yield a wider range of future Colorado River flows than previously foreseen based solely on considering temperature effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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3. Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response?

Author

Chen, Mingyue, Kumar, Arun, L'Heureux, Michelle, Peng, Peitao, Zhang, Tao, Hoerling, Martin P., and Diaz, Henry F.

Subjects
EL Nino, GEOPOTENTIAL height, SOUTHERN oscillation, GLOBAL warming, FORECASTING, OCEAN temperature, LONG-range weather forecasting
Abstract

We investigate why the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) upper‐level height forecast for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 differs from the expected El Niño response. These atypical height anomalies emerged despite the fact a strong El Niño was forecast. The analysis focuses on diagnosing the NMME forecasts of DJF 2023/24 for SSTs and 200‐hPa heights initialized at the beginning of November 2023 relative to other ensemble mean NMME DJF forecasts dating back to 1982. The results demonstrate that forecasts of the 200‐hPa height anomalies had a large contribution from warming trends in global SSTs. It is the combination of trends and the expected El Niño teleconnection that results in the forecast height anomalies. Increasingly, for forecasts of geopotential height anomalies during the recent El Niño winters, the amplitude of trends is nearly equal to the signal from El Niño and has implications for the climatological base period selection for seasonal forecasts. Plain Language Summary: Seasonal forecasts are cast as anomalies as users want to know what can be expected beyond the typical seasonal swings of the climate. This necessitates a choice for the climatological base period relative to which forecast anomalies are computed. It, however, poses a challenge under rapid climate change. In this scenario, climate trends become part of the real‐time forecast anomalies, and if the climatological base period is sufficiently different, may even start to dominate. This was the case for the NMME DJF 2023/24 forecast of 200‐hPa heights which was forecast to be a strong El Niño, and yet, forecast for 200‐hPa heights differed from typical El Niño signal. The analysis implies that seasonal forecasts for some variables, consideration of trends is important and reliance on expected signal from El Niño—Southern Oscillation alone may not be sufficient. Key Points: The North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 upper‐level height differ from the expected El Niño signalIt is the combination of trends in heights and the expected El Niño signal that results in the forecast NMME ensemble mean heights anomaliesThe forecast of trends is increasingly important to account for NMME forecast anomaly and their amplitude in recent years can be of same magnitude as the signal from El Niño [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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7. Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Author

Pendergrass, Angeline G., Meehl, Gerald A., Pulwarty, Roger, Hobbins, Mike, Hoell, Andrew, AghaKouchak, Amir, Bonfils, Céline J. W., Gallant, Ailie J. E., Hoerling, Martin, Hoffmann, David, Kaatz, Laurna, Lehner, Flavio, Llewellyn, Dagmar, Mote, Philip, Neale, Richard B., Overpeck, Jonathan T., Sheffield, Amanda, Stahl, Kerstin, Svoboda, Mark, Wheeler, Matthew C., Wood, Andrew W., and Woodhouse, Connie A.

Published
2020
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11. ADVANCING SCIENCE AND SERVICES DURING THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO : The NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign

Author

Dole, Randall M., Spackman, J. Ryan, Newman, Matthew, Compo, Gilbert P., Smith, Catherine A., Hartten, Leslie M., Barsugli, Joseph J., Webb, Robert S., Hoerling, Martin P., Cifelli, Robert, Wolter, Klaus, Barnet, Christopher D., Gehne, Maria, Gelaro, Ronald, Kiladis, George N., Abbott, Scott, Akish, Elena, Albers, John, Brown, John M., Cox, Christopher J., Darby, Lisa, de Boer, Gijs, DeLuisi, Barbara, Dias, Juliana, Dunion, Jason, Eischeid, Jon, Fairall, Christopher, Gambacorta, Antonia, Gorton, Brian K., Hoell, Andrew, Intrieri, Janet, Jackson, Darren, Johnston, Paul E., Lataitis, Richard, Mahoney, Kelly M., McCaffrey, Katherine, McColl, H. Alex, Mueller, Michael J., Murray, Donald, Neiman, Paul J., Otto, William, Persson, Ola, Quan, Xiao-Wei, Rangwala, Imtiaz, Ray, Andrea J., Reynolds, David, Dellaripa, Emily Riley, Rosenlof, Karen, Sakaeda, Naoko, Sardeshmukh, Prashant D., Slivinski, Laura C., Smith, Lesley, Solomon, Amy, Swales, Dustin, Tulich, Stefan, White, Allen, Wick, Gary, Winterkorn, Matthew G., Wolfe, Daniel E., and Zamora, Robert

Published
2018

13. 28. SUMMARY AND BROADER CONTEXT

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Hoell, Andrew, Hoerling, Martin P., Kossin, James P., Schreck, Carl J., and Stott, Peter A.

Published
2016

19. 34. SUMMARY AND BROADER CONTEXT

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Hoerling, Martin P., Kossin, James P., Peterson, Thomas C., and Stott, Peter A.

Published
2015

23. Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions

Author

Hoerling, Martin P., Dettinger, Michael, Wolter, Klaus, Lukas, Jeff, Eischeid, Jon, Nemani, Rama, Liebmann, Brant, Kunkel, Kenneth E., Kumar, Arun, Garfin, Gregg, editor, Jardine, Angela, editor, Merideth, Robert, editor, Black, Mary, editor, and LeRoy, Sarah, editor

Published
2013
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24. Present Weather and Climate: Average Conditions

Author

Steenburgh, W. James, Redmond, Kelly T., Kunkel, Kenneth E., Doesken, Nolan, Gillies, Robert R., Horel, John D., Hoerling, Martin P., Painter, Thomas H., Rasmussen, Roy, Garfin, Gregg, editor, Jardine, Angela, editor, Merideth, Robert, editor, Black, Mary, editor, and LeRoy, Sarah, editor

Published
2013
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29. Explaining extreme events of 2014 from a climate perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Hoerling, Martin P., Kossin, James P., Peterson, Thomas C., and Stott, Peter A.

Subjects
Climate models -- Analysis, Hot springs -- Analysis, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

19. ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE ON THE 2014 RECORD-HOT SPRING IN KOREA SEUNG-KI MIN, YEON-HEE KIM, SEUNGMOK PAIK, MAENG-KI KIM, AND KYUNG-ON BOO A comparison of observations and multiple global climate models [...]

Published
2015

35. Development of a Rapid Response Capability to Evaluate Causes of Extreme Temperature and Drought Events in the United States

Author

Barsugli, Joseph J., primary, Easterling, David R., additional, Arndt, Derek S., additional, Coates, David A., additional, Delworth, Thomas L., additional, Hoerling, Martin P., additional, Johnson, Nathaniel, additional, Kapnick, Sarah B., additional, Kumar, Arun, additional, Kunkel, Kenneth E., additional, Schreck, Carl J., additional, Vose, Russell S., additional, and Zhang, Tao, additional

Published
2022
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