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Tropical cyclones undergo extratropical transition (ET) in every ocean basin. Projected changes in ET frequency under climate change are uncertain and differ between basins, so multimodel studies are required to establish confidence. We used a feature-tracking algorithm to identify tropical cyclones and performed cyclone phase-space analysis to identify ET in an ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global model simulations, run at various resolutions under historical (1950–2014) and future (2015–50) forcing. Historical simulations were evaluated against five reanalyses for 1979–2018. Considering ET globally, ensemble-mean biases in track and genesis densities are reduced in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific when horizontal resolution is increased from ∼100 to ∼25 km. At high resolution, multi-reanalysis-mean climatological ET frequencies across most ocean basins as well as basins’ seasonal cycles are reproduced better than in low-resolution models. Skill in simulating historical ET interannual variability in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific is ∼0.3, which is lower than for all tropical cyclones. Models project an increase in ET frequency in the North Atlantic and a decrease in the western North Pacific. We explain these opposing responses by secular change in ET seasonality and an increase in lower-tropospheric, pre-ET warm-core strength, both of which are largely unique to the North Atlantic. Multimodel consensus about climate change responses is clearer for frequency metrics than for intensity metrics. These results help clarify the role of model resolution in simulating ET and help quantify uncertainty surrounding ET in a warming climate. All authors received financial support from the PRIMAVERA project (European Commission Horizon2020 Grant Agreement 641727) with data access via JASMIN (https://jasmin.ac.uk) supported by IS-ENES3 (Grant Agreement 824084). AJB also received support from National Environmental Research Council (NERC) national capability grant for the North Atlantic Climate System: Integrated study (ACSIS) program (Grants NE/N018001/1, NE/N018044/1, NE/N018028/1, and NE/N018052/1). KL received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through JPI Climate/JPI Oceans NextG-Climate Science-ROADMAP (FKZ: 01LP2002A). The authors are grateful to the editor and to three anonymous reviewers, whose recommendations improved this paper. AJB, PLV, RJH, and MJR conceived the study. Simulations were performed by MJR, ET, KL, CDR, and LT. Output data were managed by JS. MJR performed the cyclone tracking. BV computed the Eady growth rate. AJB undertook cyclone phase-space analysis and all other data analyses, figure preparation, and wrote the manuscript. All authors provided input in interpreting results and approved the final manuscript. The authors declare no competing interests. Peer Reviewed "Article signat per 13 autors/es: Alexander J. Baker, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin I. Hodges, Jon Seddon, Benoît Vannière, Rein J. Haarsma, Reinhard Schiemann, Dimitris Kapetanakis, Etienne Tourigny, Katja Lohmann, Christopher D. Roberts, and Laurent Terray"

Polar lows (PLs) are small, intense cyclones that form at high latitudes during the winter. Their high wind speeds and heavy precipitation can have substantial impacts on shipping, coastal communities and infrastructure. However, low-resolution climate models poorly simulate PLs, which reduces the confidence in their future projections. In this study, Northern Hemisphere (NH) PLs are assessed for the first time in a high-resolution (25 km) global climate model, N512 HadGEM3-GA3, for both present-day and future RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The representation of PLs is found to agree reasonably well with the NCEP-CFS reanalysis. The number of NH PLs are projected to substantially decrease (by over 60%) by the end of the 21st century, which is largely due to an increase in atmospheric static stability. Large decreases in PL activity are found in the Norwegian Sea, north-east Atlantic and north-west Pacific Oceans. Smaller changes are found in regions of current PL activity, such as the Barents and Labrador Seas, while new regions of PL activity along the northern Russian coastline are found where the Arctic sea ice is projected to disappear. The spatial differences found in future PL activity could thus have a substantial impact on forthcoming activities in the Arctic region.

MutantKRAS(KM) is the most common oncogene in lung cancer (LC). KM regulates several metabolic networks, but their role in tumorigenesis is still not sufficiently characterized to be exploited in cancer therapy. To identify metabolic networks specifically deregulated in KMLC, we characterized the lipidome of genetically engineered LC mice, cell lines, patient derived xenografts and primary human samples. We also determined that KMLC, but not EGFR-mutant (EGFR-MUT) LC, is enriched in triacylglycerides (TAG) and phosphatidylcholines (PC). We also found that KM upregulates fatty acid synthase (FASN), a rate-limiting enzyme in fatty acid (FA) synthesis promoting the synthesis of palmitate and PC. We determined that FASN is specifically required for the viability of KMLC, but not of LC harboring EGFR-MUT or wild type KRAS. Functional experiments revealed that FASN inhibition leads to ferroptosis, a reactive oxygen species (ROS)-and iron-dependent cell death. Consistently, lipidomic analysis demonstrated that FASN inhibition in KMLC leads to accumulation of PC with polyunsaturated FA (PUFA) chains, which are the substrate of ferroptosis. Integrating lipidomic, transcriptome and functional analyses, we demonstrated that FASN provides saturated (SFA) and monounsaturated FA (MUFA) that feed the Lands cycle, the main process remodeling oxidized phospholipids (PL), such as PC. Accordingly, either inhibition of FASN or suppression of the Lands cycle enzymes PLA2 and LPCAT3, promotes the intracellular accumulation of lipid peroxides and ferroptosis in KMLC bothin vitroandin vivo. Our work supports a model whereby the high oxidative stress caused by KM dictates a dependency on newly synthesized FA to repair oxidated phospholipids, establishing a targetable vulnerability. These results connect KM oncogenic signaling, FASN induction and ferroptosis, indicating that FASN inhibitors already in clinical trial in KMLC patients (NCT03808558) may be rapidly deployed as therapy for KMLC.

As evidence of climate change strengthens, knowledge of its regional implications becomes an urgent need for decision making. Current understanding of regional precipitation changes is substantially limited by our understanding of the atmospheric circulation response to climate change, which to a high degree remains uncertain. This uncertainty is reflected in the wide spread in atmospheric circulation changes projected in multimodel ensembles, which cannot be directly interpreted in a probabilistic sense. The uncertainty can instead be represented by studying a discrete set of physically plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation changes. By mining CMIP5 model output, here we take this broader perspective and develop storylines for Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude circulation changes, conditioned on the degree of global-mean warming, based on the climate responses of two remote drivers: the enhanced warming of the tropical upper troposphere and the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. For the three continental domains in the SH, we analyse the precipitation changes under each storyline. To allow comparison with previous studies, we also link both circulation and precipitation changes with those of the Southern Annular Mode. Our results show that the response to tropical warming leads to a strengthening of the midlatitude westerly winds, whilst the response to a delayed breakdown (for DJF) or strengthening (for JJA) of the stratospheric vortex leads to a poleward shift of the westerly winds and the storm tracks. However, the circulation response is not zonally symmetric and the regional precipitation storylines for South America, South Africa, South Australia and New Zealand exhibit quite specific dependencies on the two remote drivers, which are not well represented by changes in the Southern Annular Mode.

Global warming involves changes not only in the mean atmospheric temperature, but also in its variability and extremes. Here we use a feature-tracking technique to investigate the dynamical contribution to temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere in CMIP5 climate-change simulations. We develop a simple theory to explain how temperature variance and skewness changes are generated dynamically from mean temperature gradient changes, and demonstrate the crucial role of regional warming patterns in shaping the distinct response of cold and warm anomalies. We also show that skewness changes must be taken into account, in addition to variance changes, in order to correctly capture the projected temperature variability response. These changes in variability may impact humans, agriculture and animals, as they experience not only a warmer mean climate, but also a new likelihood of temperature anomalies within that climate.

Southern African tropical lows are synoptic-scale cyclonic vortices that propagate westward across southern Africa in the Austral summer. They strongly influence local rainfall and aggregate in the climatological DJF mean to form the Angola Low. In this study, tropical lows are identified and tracked using an objective feature tracking method. The statistics of tropical low tracks over southern Africa are presented and compared across three reanalysis products. Findings are compared to the literature of tropical low pressure areas elsewhere in the world, where it is found that most tracking statistics compare well, but that the tendency of tropical lows to become semi-stationary over Angola is unique to Southern southern Africa. The hypothesis that tropical lows in Angola have a causal relationship with Tropical Temperate Troughs is tested, and a correlation between occurrence frequencies is found at inter-annual but not daily time-scales. Precipitation is attributed to the tropical lows and it is found that tropical lows are associated with 31% of rainfall across tropical southern Africa, based on gridded precipitation products. The inter-annual variability of the number of tropical lows that form\ud 34 per year (σ = 6 events/annum) is linked to ENSO and the tropical easterly jet. The mean latitude of tropical lows is shifted northwards during El Nino and southwards during La Nina. Much of the inter-annual precipitation variability maximum in Angola is attributed to rainfall associated with tropical lows. These results provide insights into the southern African response to ENSO and into the mechanisms of rainfall in the southern African tropical edge.