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Navigating the COVID-19 pandemic has included parsing an overwhelming amount of information—much of it online. Many Americans have seen information on social media that they find confusing (Mitchell, Oliphant & Shearer, 2020) and recent research has found that social media use may contribute to greater likelihoods of believing misinformation about the virus and sharing ‘fake news’ about it (Su, 2021; Pennycook et al., 2020). Using a survey of U.S. adults, this research determined which social media platforms Americans rely on most when they search for information about COVID-19: Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. The present study also identified the credibility cues that people look to as they are trying to ascertain the veracity of COVID-19 information they come across on social media and that are predictors of helping them feel more confident in their own ability to identify credible information. Those significant cues—believability, authenticity, trustworthiness, reliability and objectivity—confirm previous research by Appelman and Sundar (2016) and Tandoc et al. (2018b). Educators, public health officials, and journalists are among the professionals who can use these findings to create more effective messages designed to assist people in making better health decisions.

Abstract Unsustainable wildlife trade imperils thousands of species, but efforts to identify and reduce these threats are hampered by rapidly evolving commercial markets. Businesses trading wildlife-derived products innovate to remain competitive, and the patents they file to protect their innovations also provide an early-warning of market shifts. Here, we develop a novel machine-learning approach to analyse patent-filing trends and apply it to patents filed from 1970-2020 related to six traded taxa that vary in trade legality, threat level, and use type: rhinoceroses, pangolins, bears, sturgeon, horseshoe crabs, and caterpillar fungus. We found 27,308 patents, showing 130% per-year increases, compared to a background rate of 104%. Innovation led to diversification, including new fertilizer products using illegal-to-trade rhinoceros horn, and novel farming methods for pangolins. Stricter regulation did not generally correlate with reduced patenting. Patents reveal how wildlife-related businesses predict, adapt to, and create market shifts, providing data to underpin proactive wildlife-trade management approaches.

Abstract Consumer behavior change is a key priority to address the illegal wildlife trade, but evaluation of these interventions is lacking. We used surveys and randomized controlled trials to assess the effectiveness of three types of messages, which were codesigned with key stakeholders, with 2496 potential consumers and nontarget consumers in China. We found a 23% decrease in intention among potential consumers to use wild animal medicinal products by health‐related messages, and a 14% decrease by legality‐related messages, compared with the control group, though the effect size was small. Furthermore, we revealed that the effect of health‐related messages occurred indirectly by increasing health risk perceptions associated with improper utilization of wild animals. Yet, we did not find a clear effect pathway of the legality‐related messages. Regarding the nontarget consumers, information of whistleblowing platforms and incentives improved willingness to report illegal wildlife use directly, as well as indirectly through adding messages to increase perceived legality risk of using wild products and improve self‐efficacy in identifying legal products. Our findings can inform future larger scale efforts to influence wildlife consumption.

Abstract Co‐design, an approach that seeks to incorporate the experiences and perspectives of different stakeholders, is increasingly being used to develop audience‐oriented behaviour change interventions. The complexity of wildlife consumption behaviour makes the co‐design approach an important potential tool for the design of conservation interventions that aim to reduce illegal wildlife trade. Yet, little is known about how to adapt and apply the co‐design approach to the wildlife trade sector. Here, we applied a co‐design approach to develop interventions aimed at reducing illegal animal‐based medicine consumption in China. We conducted three workshops with key stakeholders: consumers of animal‐based medicines, pharmacy workers who sell them and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) doctors who prescribe them. We then developed a theory of change to ensure the relevance of the co‐designed intervention prototypes. Our co‐design process identified five main pathways of interventions, including two inclusive solutions that may have been previously overlooked in behaviour change work in this context. These were an intervention to promote the appropriate use of TCM and one to increase consumers' capacity to identify the legality of products. Our prototype interventions also enhanced existing views related to the role of medical practitioners in health‐risk communication. We used our co‐design process and reflections on its application to this specific market to provide guidelines for future conservation program planning in the broader wildlife trade context. Some intervention prototypes produced during co‐design may need wider stakeholder involvement to increase their feasibility for implementation. We show that the co‐design process can integrate multiple stakeholders' perspectives in the ideation stage, and has the potential to produce inclusive intervention designs that could drive innovation in conservation efforts to reduce illegal consumption of a range of wild species. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Abstract As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse epidemiological surveillance data from England. We quantified the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), therapeutics, and vaccination on virus transmission and severity. Each successive variant had a higher intrinsic transmissibility. Omicron (BA.1) had the highest basic reproduction number at 8.4 (95% credible interval (CrI) 7.8-9.1). Varying levels of NPIs were crucial in controlling virus transmission until population immunity accumulated. Immune escape properties of Omicron decreased effective levels of immunity in the population by a third. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies, we found Alpha had the highest basic infection fatality ratio (3.0%, 95% CrI 2.8-3.2), followed by Delta (2.1%, 95% CrI 1.9–2.4), Wildtype (1.2%, 95% CrI 1.1–1.2), and Omicron (0.7%, 95% CrI 0.6-0.8). Our findings highlight the importance of continued surveillance. Long-term strategies for monitoring and maintaining effective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 are critical to inform the role of NPIs to effectively manage future variants with potentially higher intrinsic transmissibility and severe outcomes.

BackgroundMany loci have been found to be associated with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). However, although there is considerable variation in progression-free survival (PFS), no loci have been found to be associated with outcome at genome-wide levels of significance.MethodsWe carried out a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of PFS in 2,352 women with EOC who had undergone cytoreductive surgery and standard carboplatin/paclitaxel chemotherapy.ResultsWe found seven SNPs at 12q24.33 associated with PFS (P < 5 × 10-8), the top SNP being rs10794418 (HR = 1.24; 95% CI, 1.15-1.34; P = 1.47 × 10-8). High expression of a nearby gene, ULK1, is associated with shorter PFS in EOC, and with poor prognosis in other cancers. SNP rs10794418 is also associated with expression of ULK1 in ovarian tumors, with the allele associated with shorter PFS being associated with higher expression, and chromatin interactions were detected between the ULK1 promoter and associated SNPs in serous and endometrioid EOC cell lines. ULK1 knockout ovarian cancer cell lines showed significantly increased sensitivity to carboplatin in vitro.ConclusionsThe locus at 12q24.33 represents one of the first genome-wide significant loci for survival for any cancer. ULK1 is a plausible candidate for the target of this association.ImpactThis finding provides insight into genetic markers associated with EOC outcome and potential treatment options.See related commentary by Peres and Monteiro, p. 1604.

Abstract Political will is a critical determinant of the success or failure of environmental policies and interventions. Harnessing the political will necessary to implement environmental solutions can be challenging because environmental priorities may compete with other societal interests in policymaking. Environmental solutions are more politically feasible if fundamentally aligned with the core interests of key policymakers. Understanding the political agendas of decision‐makers enables conservationists to identify where political will already exists, and allows environmental objectives to piggyback on the motivation to deliver results. In this paper, we explore the core interests of the Chinese leadership to uncover opportunities to leverage Beijing's political will for sustainability and conservation gains. China's growing influence on ecosystems and natural resource use both within and beyond its borders makes an analysis of its leadership's political will valuable and timely. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

PurposeGene expression-based molecular subtypes of high-grade serous tubo-ovarian cancer (HGSOC), demonstrated across multiple studies, may provide improved stratification for molecularly targeted trials. However, evaluation of clinical utility has been hindered by nonstandardized methods, which are not applicable in a clinical setting. We sought to generate a clinical grade minimal gene set assay for classification of individual tumor specimens into HGSOC subtypes and confirm previously reported subtype-associated features.Experimental designAdopting two independent approaches, we derived and internally validated algorithms for subtype prediction using published gene expression data from 1,650 tumors. We applied resulting models to NanoString data on 3,829 HGSOCs from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. We further developed, confirmed, and validated a reduced, minimal gene set predictor, with methods suitable for a single-patient setting.ResultsGene expression data were used to derive the predictor of high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma molecular subtype (PrOTYPE) assay. We established a de facto standard as a consensus of two parallel approaches. PrOTYPE subtypes are significantly associated with age, stage, residual disease, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, and outcome. The locked-down clinical grade PrOTYPE test includes a model with 55 genes that predicted gene expression subtype with >95% accuracy that was maintained in all analytic and biological validations.ConclusionsWe validated the PrOTYPE assay following the Institute of Medicine guidelines for the development of omics-based tests. This fully defined and locked-down clinical grade assay will enable trial design with molecular subtype stratification and allow for objective assessment of the predictive value of HGSOC molecular subtypes in precision medicine applications.See related commentary by McMullen et al., p. 5271.

Objectives To investigate the effect of age-related rotator cuff tears on shoulder strength in a general population cohort.Design Cross sectional observational study.Setting This study was set in an outpatient clinic setting in Chingford, North East London, and was a component of the 20 year visit of the Chingford 1000 women cohort.Participants Individuals were part of the Chingford 1000 women cohort, a 20-year-old longitudinal population study. This cohort has been extensively characterised as representative of the population of the UK. At the 20 year visit, 446 attended for shoulder assessment and were aged between 64 and 87.Primary and secondary outcome measures Isometric shoulder abduction strength measured using a Nottingham Mecmesin Myometer and the presence of rotator cuff pathology, determined via ultrasound examination (GE voluson i portable ultrasound machine with a 10-16MHz linear probe). Shoulders were classified into normal, abnormal tendon/partial tear, full-thickness tears (>0 and ≤2.5 cm) and full-thickness tears (>2.5 cm). Symptoms were defined using the Oxford Shoulder Score, where an abnormal score was defined as symptomatic.Results 446 women (891 shoulders) aged 71 (range 65–84) were included in the study. Age, the presence of pain and the non-dominant arm were demonstrated to reduce strength. Rotator cuff tears and pathology had no isolated effect on shoulder strength in those aged under 70. However, in the over 70s full-thickness tears>0 and ≤2.5 cm, and >2.5 cm had mean reductions of 6.3 and 12.7 N, respectively (p

BackgroundMedian overall survival (OS) for women with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) is ∼4 years, yet survival varies widely between patients. There are no well-established, gene expression signatures associated with prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop a robust prognostic signature for OS in patients with HGSOC.Patients and methodsExpression of 513 genes, selected from a meta-analysis of 1455 tumours and other candidates, was measured using NanoString technology from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour tissue collected from 3769 women with HGSOC from multiple studies. Elastic net regularization for survival analysis was applied to develop a prognostic model for 5-year OS, trained on 2702 tumours from 15 studies and evaluated on an independent set of 1067 tumours from six studies.ResultsExpression levels of 276 genes were associated with OS (false discovery rate < 0.05) in covariate-adjusted single-gene analyses. The top five genes were TAP1, ZFHX4, CXCL9, FBN1 and PTGER3 (P < 0.001). The best performing prognostic signature included 101 genes enriched in pathways with treatment implications. Each gain of one standard deviation in the gene expression score conferred a greater than twofold increase in risk of death [hazard ratio (HR) 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02-2.71; P < 0.001]. Median survival [HR (95% CI)] by gene expression score quintile was 9.5 (8.3 to -), 5.4 (4.6-7.0), 3.8 (3.3-4.6), 3.2 (2.9-3.7) and 2.3 (2.1-2.6) years.ConclusionThe OTTA-SPOT (Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium - Stratified Prognosis of Ovarian Tumours) gene expression signature may improve risk stratification in clinical trials by identifying patients who are least likely to achieve 5-year survival. The identified novel genes associated with the outcome may also yield opportunities for the development of targeted therapeutic approaches.

In an emergency epidemic response, data providers supply data on a best-faith effort to modellers and analysts who are typically the end user of data collected for other primary purposes such as to inform patient care. Thus, modellers who analyse secondary data have limited ability to influence what is captured. During an emergency response, models themselves are often under constant development and require both stability in their data inputs and flexibility to incorporate new inputs as novel data sources become available. This dynamic landscape is challenging to work with. Here we outline a data pipeline used in the ongoing COVID-19 response in the UK that aims to address these issues.A data pipeline is a sequence of steps to carry the raw data through to a processed and useable model input, along with the appropriate metadata and context. In ours, each data type had an individual processing report, designed to produce outputs that could be easily combined and used downstream. Automated checks were in-built and added as new pathologies emerged. These cleaned outputs were collated at different geographic levels to provide standardised datasets. Finally, a human validation step was an essential component of the analysis pathway and permitted more nuanced issues to be captured. This framework allowed the pipeline to grow in complexity and volume and facilitated the diverse range of modelling approaches employed by researchers. Additionally, every report or modelling output could be traced back to the specific data version that informed it ensuring reproducibility of results.Our approach has been used to facilitate fast-paced analysis and has evolved over time. Our framework and its aspirations are applicable to many settings beyond COVID-19 data, for example for other outbreaks such as Ebola, or where routine and regular analyses are required.

Intra-specific variations may contribute to heterogeneous responses to climate change across a species’ range. Here, the authors investigate the phenology of two bird species across their breeding ranges, and find that their sensitivity to temperature is uncoupled from exposure to climate change.

The link between unsustainable harvest of species for the wildlife trade and extinction is clear in some cases, but little is known about the number of species across taxonomic groups that have gone extinct because of trade-related factors, or future risks for traded species. We conducted a rapid review of published articles and species assessments on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species with the aim of recording examples of extinctions that were attributed to trade. We found reports of extinctions linked, at least in part, to wildlife trade for 511 unique taxa. These include 294 reports of global extinctions, 25 extinctions in the wild, and 192 local extinctions. The majority of global/in the wild extinctions linked to trade (230) involved ray-finned fishes, primarily due to predation by introduced commercial species. Seventy-one of the 175 reported local extinctions of animal taxa linked to trade were mammals. Twenty-two global/in the wild extinctions and 16 local extinctions of plants were reportedly linked to trade. One fungal species was reported locally extinct due to over-harvesting for trade. Furthermore, 340 species were reported to be near-extinct linked to trade, 269 of which were animals, including several high-profile megafauna. Extinctions were linked to direct harvesting and/or indirect threats such as bycatch or invasive species introduced for trade, but often it was not possible to determine the relative role of trade-related threats in extinctions. Our results highlight the need for better data collection on trade-related extinction risk to understand its impacts and to inform more effective wildlife trade policy.

Abstract The trade in jaguar body parts is viewed as an alarming threat to the jaguar, and there is the assumption that Chinese demand is driving the trade. However, there has been little analysis of the discourses around the trade both with respect to the Chinese public, internationally and in source countries. We analysed 298 media articles in Chinese, English and Spanish languages from 2010 to 2019, to understand the disparities in reporting of this jaguar trade and what impact they would have for jaguar conservation. Temporal analysis showed that this trade did not receive global media attention until 2018, despite having taken place for a couple of years. Only four (teeth, skin, head and claws) out of the 15 body parts reported to have been traded had evidence of trade based on seizures. Jaguars were viewed positively, while the experiences of local people who suffer losses from coexisting with jaguars were rarely captured. The claim that the trade was Chinese driven was strongly and positively associated with whether seizure and arrest evidence was presented in an article, though articles held different views on if Chinese companies were involved. English‐ and Spanish‐language articles stated that traditional Chinese medicine was the main use of the jaguar body parts and were more likely to mention that this trade was Chinese driven while journalistic investigations and narratives from within China were missing. This research highlights the evidence gap with respect to media coverage of the jaguar trade, and stresses the need to collaborate with stakeholders whose voices are less prominent in the articles analysed, such as Chinese communities and local people who live around jaguars. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Consumer behavior change is a key priority to address the illegal wildlife trade, but evaluation of these interventions is lacking. We used surveys and randomized controlled trials to assess the effectiveness of three types of messages, which were codesigned with key stakeholders, with 2496 potential consumers and nontarget consumers in China. We found a 23% decrease in intention among potential consumers to use wild animal medicinal products by health‐related messages, and a 14% decrease by legality‐related messages, compared with the control group, though the effect size was small. Furthermore, we revealed that the effect of health‐related messages occurred indirectly by increasing health risk perceptions associated with improper utilization of wild animals. Yet, we did not find a clear effect pathway of the legality‐related messages. Regarding the nontarget consumers, information of whistleblowing platforms and incentives improved willingness to report illegal wildlife use directly, as well as indirectly through adding messages to increase perceived legality risk of using wild products and improve self‐efficacy in identifying legal products. Our findings can inform future larger scale efforts to influence wildlife consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. Methods Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth. Results The best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous. Conclusions Despite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis.

Abstract Understanding wildlife consumption is essential for the design and evaluation of effective conservation interventions to reduce illegal trade. This requires understanding both the consumers themselves and those who influence their behaviour. For example, in markets for wildlife‐based medicines, both consumers and medical practitioners have a role in which products are consumed. We used mixed methods to triangulate data on bear bile consumption from 3,646 members of the public, 80 pharmacy workers and 38 Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) doctors in four provincial capital cities across China. Bear bile can be sold legally in packaged TCM products made from farmed bile, or sold illegally, often as raw gallbladders from wild bears. We interviewed medical practitioners, and surveyed the public using both direct questions (DQ) and the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT), an indirect method used to improve reporting of sensitive behaviours. We applied a ‘combined’ UCT‐DQ analysis to produce a more robust consumption estimate. In all, 140 (3.8%) survey respondents directly reported recent (

Abstract There are calls to ground policies aimed at addressing the illegal wildlife trade (IWT), and biodiversity conservation more generally, on the best available evidence. However, evidence on IWT can be highly uncertain and difficult to obtain due to the illegal nature of the trade. Even when the evidence exists, there are numerous barriers to its uptake by decision makers, pertaining to the evidence itself and to the characteristics and contexts of those using it. The surfacing of the illegal trade in jaguars Panthera onca provides an example of how evidence is, and is not, used for decision‐making on IWT. We interviewed 38 conservation practitioners in Belize, Guatemala and Honduras, who had knowledge about, or experience dealing with, illegal jaguar trade. Interviewees described their information sources and decision‐making processes, and explicitly and implicitly prioritized jaguar trade evidence, based on attributes like the evidence's source, the scale and purpose of the trade, its temporal and spatial dimensions and the nationality of offenders. Even though interviewees stated that they use scientific evidence to make decisions, they gave more weight to evidence involving foreign actors and commercial purposes than local and non‐commercial ones, paying less attention to the potential impact on jaguars or the source of the information. They were also more inclined to favour events that were spatially and temporally closer to their own reality. Our results show that the interpretation and uptake of evidence are subject to contextual constraints and personal biases, which are common across fields and sectors, even amongst experienced decision makers. We propose an approach for evaluating evidence and informing decision‐making within IWT and biodiversity conservation. Our approach aims to guide conservation decision makers and practitioners to assess the relevance and uncertainty of the evidence, to recognize their own interpretation biases, to identify the actions that are appropriate based on the evidence and to improve the transparency of their decisions. It can also guide evidence ‘producers’ to develop evidence that is more aligned to conservation policy and practice. This approach can contribute towards more evidence‐based practice within the field of biodiversity conservation, with applications to IWT and beyond. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.