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Hindsight bias arises when people do not realize how extensively observing an event has changed their perception of the world. As a result, the event appears more likely than it actually was, in foresight. Underestimating how much one has to learn is a form of overconfidence that could, in the extreme, lead to a seemingly surprise-free past portending a surprise-full future. Fischhoff (1975) introduced tasks for studying the extent, causes, and consequences of the bias, along with initial evidence using historical vignettes. Subsequent studies have found the bias in a wide variety of experimental and real-world settings. Psychologists have linked the bias to research on cognitive, social, perceptual, and emotional processes. Other disciplines have implicated it in practical problems including clinical diagnosis, patent evaluation, legal adjudication, historical analysis, and safety engineering. Warning people about the bias has no discernible effect. Helping people to reconstruct past perspectives might help. After describing how the research program came about, the article briefly summarizes studies that the author especially likes and which have abundant references to studies in the diverse research areas that either study hindsight bias or use it to study other phenomena. Public Significance Statement: Hindsight bias leads people to be unduly harsh on themselves and others, imagining that they knew things that were only revealed in hindsight. Fifty years of research have found hindsight bias in a wide variety of experimental and real-world settings, notably reducing the prevalence of complete surprises that might motivate people to question their judgment. Warning people about hindsight bias has little effect; restructuring how people think about past events might reduce the threat that it poses to psychological well-being, innovation, safety, and justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This article explores one central assumption that is guiding large portions of contemporary (analytic) moral philosophy: the idea that moral philosophy has to be forward-looking and action-guiding. By paying attention to a number of examples, it is argued that this guiding assumption flies in the face of important aspects of actual moral life. Moral situations are not (always) of the nature that we can plan for them, and reason about them in advance. Rather, the moral reality, or the moral contexts, are often such that the moral situation is created in the scene, and hence something that is only available to reflect upon in hindsight. There are, at least, two central reasons why this is so: The first is that the sense, meaning, of the actions and the concepts we use in reflection about them, are not locked beforehand, and our understanding of them are formed in the process. The second reason is that moral situations come about in a responsive, rather than planned, way. That is, we discover our moral world by means of our reactive interactions, rather than in theoretical reflection that aims to produce "anticipated beliefs." Thus, this article suggests a way of exploring morality's backward-looking nature that does not misrepresent moral reality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The location and presentation of an object establish layered narratives about the object, which habit and familiarity protect. This shield obscures an object's effects on people and places that originate in that object's materials and manufacturing. Recontextualizing objects and investigating their physical forms within novel frameworks can counteract these narratives. This project replaces an object's expected context with an imagined future full of confusion and curiosity. Through a photo essay and a fictitious research journal, it describes a likely environmental scenario in 2200 and imagines a researcher discovering a bag of objects in the wilderness. The bag includes an artificial plant, a toilet brush, a bottle opener, a clothespin, a clothes hanger, and a stuffed animal. But the researcher is only familiar with two of these objects, and so tries to deduce the function of the remaining objects via their materials and by consulting oral histories from their era of origin. Through naïve misunderstanding, the researcher reveals often overlooked cultural norms and histories of extraction, manufacturing, and use. The whimsy of this method is intentional; the researcher offers readers the shared experiences of feeling overwhelmed and making mistakes while creating an approachable entrance to thinking more critically about the world humans are currently building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The location and presentation of an object establish layered narratives about the object, which habit and familiarity protect. This shield obscures an object’s effects on people and places that originate in that object’s materials and manufacturing. Recontextualizing objects and investigating their physical forms within novel frameworks can counteract these narratives. This project replaces an object’s expected context with an imagined future full of confusion and curiosity. Through a photo essay and a fictitious research journal, it describes a likely environmental scenario in 2200 and imagines a researcher discovering a bag of objects in the wilderness. The bag includes an artificial plant, a toilet brush, a bottle opener, a clothespin, a clothes hanger, and a stuffed animal. But the researcher is only familiar with two of these objects, and so tries to deduce the function of the remaining objects via their materials and by consulting oral histories from their era of origin. Through naïve misunderstanding, the researcher reveals often overlooked cultural norms and histories of extraction, manufacturing, and use. The whimsy of this method is intentional; the researcher offers readers the shared experiences of feeling overwhelmed and making mistakes while creating an approachable entrance to thinking more critically about the world humans are currently building.

This article addresses the question of the date of valuation and whether and how post-breach developments and information can and should be taken into account under international investment law. We will first show that, contrary to the claim that is sometimes made in arbitral practice and commentaries, tribunals approach these issues in four different ways. We will then critically analyse each one of these approaches. Our conclusion will be that, for unlawful expropriations and other international wrongs, the best approach is the one whereby damages are valued as at the date of the award or a proxy date for it and based on the information available at that time, provided it is sufficiently reliable. We will notably explain how this conclusion tallies with the Permanent Court of International Justice's judgment in Factory at Chorzów , considered by many the cornerstone of the international investment law of damages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classic reinforcement learning algorithms generate experiences by the agent's constant trial and error, which leads to a large number of failure experiences stored in the replay buffer. As a result, the agents can only learn through these low-quality experiences. In the case of multi-agent systems, this problem is more serious. MADDPG (Multi-Agent Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient) has achieved significant results in solving multi-agent problems by using a framework of centralized training with decentralized execution. Nevertheless, the problem of too many failure experiences in the replay buffer has not been resolved. In this paper, we propose HMADDPG (Hindsight Multi-Agent Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient) to mitigate the negative impact of failure experience. HMADDPG has a hindsight unit, which allows the agents to reflect and produces pseudo experiences that tend to succeed. Pseudo experiences are stored in the replay buffer, so that the agents can combine two kinds of experiences to learn. We have evaluated our algorithm on a number of environments. The results show that the algorithm can guide agents to learn better strategies and can be applied in multi-agent systems which are cooperative, competitive, or mixed cooperative and competitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Contemporary Accounting Research is the property of Canadian Academic Accounting Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Introduction/Main Objectives: This study aims to examine the role of heuristic behavior toward the formation of fundamental and technical anomalies in the capital market. This study also aims to examine the role of fundamental and technical anomalies on investment performance. Background Problems: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is not always able to explain all of the events or phenomena so that it still raises questions and produces research results that do not meet expectations, so in the end these phenomena are categorized as market anomalies. This study investigates whether heuristics have an effect on fundamental and technical anomalies and whether the anomalies have an effect on investment performance. Novelty: There is no research that uses hindsight variables incorporated into heuristics; therefore, this study confirms that the indicators used for hindsight measurements are appropriate for measuring what will be measured. Previous research did not involve hindsight in the heuristic category. Research Methods: Data management are done by using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with the help of the WarpPLS analysis tool. Mediation exploration testing was accomplished with variance accounted for (VAF). Findings/Results: The results of the study show that heuristics (availability, representativeness, and hindsight) are proven to be one of the factors that cause fundamental and technical anomalies in the capital market, except for availability heuristics. Conclusion: A large number of anomalies in the capital market do not stop investors from continuing to invest, so that at a certain level, investors are satisfied with their investments' performance because they use heuristics in an efficient way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent decades have seen the sensitisation of UK society towards harm and policing 'failures' become increasingly significant. This paper is intended to stimulate thought and debate by analysing some consequences of these developments. It reviews literature in relation to risk-taking in UK operational policing, identifying increased criminal and disciplinary liability, particularly in respect of alleged omissions. Hindsight is found to be a potentially powerful influence. The article concludes that it is unlikely that public culture will be changed readily. However, police and other bodies should be able to reach a common approach towards operational risk, omissions and hindsight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Construction of plausible scenarios for alternative futures of global food systems requires an understanding of how the past led to the present, and the past's likely relevance to the future. Policy actions affected the past, but are very difficult to foresee. Among those that most shaped global food systems in the last half century are measures that fostered productivity growth, expansion of trade, and the interlinkage of agricultural and environmental policies. Scenarios for global food systems, including those using the quantitative tools of the CGIAR's Global Futures and Strategic Foresight modeling approach, explore alternative assumptions in these three areas, among others. Hindsight can inform foresight by highlighting key elements of the past and forcing transparent examination of whether and how these elements will shape the future. Highlights • Construction of foresight models requires judgment about the relevance of the past. • Technical change, trade, and environmental policy shaped food systems since 1970. • Assumptions about these three are built into quantitative future scenarios. • Each of the three is highly affected by policy decisions. • Varying assumptions about them can clarify today's policy options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article draws on a small-scale study that explored the (re)configuring, (re)turning and (re)working of the experiences of mothering as seen from a position of looking back in hindsight. Temporality is implicated in several ways within this paper, deeply entwined and constantly shifting. Researching past events, experiences and emotions that appear in a location not of the present is problematic, especially when time is conceptualised chronologically. Making sense of past experiences of mothering in the present exposed parenting as not necessarily something that can be detached from the past or as an experience that lies in the past, but rather something where the past is very much present. Here, Barad’s diffractive methodologies, along with the work of Bennett, on new materialism is utilised to explore the temporal nature of mothering. Nine mothers whose children were aged 18–30 were asked “what do you wish you had known then that you know now about being a parent?” Objects kept from when their children were young were initially used to mobilise the temporal and the affective. However, the study itself, the journeys to mothers’ homes, the interviews, the pen, paper, recordings, photos and the files that stand waiting to be reached and the objects mothers brought have become entwined. This is also true for the new entanglements and engagements with post-humanist theory that unearthed themselves to me in the journey to this point in the process. The paradoxical nature of time evident in the narratives women shared, continued to shape early parenting experiences of how mothers perceived themselves through the constant (re)visiting, (re)evaluating and (re)analysing of these experiences is simultaneously reflected in the spacetimemattering of doing this research.

Aedes aegypti is the main vector of Dengue Virus, carrying the virus during the whole mosquito life post-infection. Few mosquito fitness costs have been associated to the virus infection, thereby allowing for a swift dissemination. In order to diminish the mosquito population, public health agency use persistent chemicals with environmental impact for disease control. Most countries barely use biological controls, if at all. With the purpose of developing novel Dengue control strategies, a detailed understanding of the unexplored virus-vector interactions is urgently needed. Damage induced (through tissue injury or bacterial invasion) DNA duplication (endoreplication) has been described in insects during epithelial cells renewal. Here, we delved into the mosquito midgut tissue ability to synthesize DNA de novo; postulating that Dengue virus infection could trigger a protective endoreplication mechanism in some mosquito cells. We hypothesized that the Aedes aegypti orthologue of the Drosophila melanogaster hindsight gene (not previously annotated in Aedes aegypti transcriptome/genome) is part of the Delta-Notch pathway. The activation of this transcriptional cascade leads to genomic DNA endoreplication. The amplification of the genomic copies of specific genes ultimately limits the viral spreading during infection. Conversely, inhibiting DNA synthesis capacity, hence endoreplication, leads to a higher viral replication.

In this article I focus on the temporal aspects of the historian's situation: being in the present and representing the past. Writing is a time‐bound process. It is in this context that the notion of temporal perspective arises. What follows is a series of reflections, variations on the theme, perhaps, of temporal perspective as it figures in historical writing. The concept of hindsight figures prominently in these reflections. I also deal with examples of superimposed chronology that sometimes result from temporal perspective. My reflections avoid grand conclusions about time and history. I hope they may instead cast some modest light on the issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Five experiments identify an asymmetric moral hindsight effect for judgments about whether a morally good action should have been taken, e.g., Ann should run into traffic to save Jill who fell before an oncoming truck. Judgments are increased when the outcome is good (Jill sustained minor bruises), as Experiment 1 shows; but they are not decreased when the outcome is bad (Jill sustained life-threatening injuries), as Experiment 2 shows. The hindsight effect is modified by imagined alternatives to the outcome: judgments are amplified by a counterfactual that if the good action had not been taken, the outcome would have been worse, and diminished by a semi-factual that if the good action had not been taken, the outcome would have been the same. Hindsight modification occurs when the alternative is presented with the outcome, and also when participants have already committed to a judgment based on the outcome, as Experiments 3A and 3B show. The hindsight effect occurs not only for judgments in life-and-death situations but also in other domains such as sports, as Experiment 4 shows. The results are consistent with a causal-inference explanation of moral judgment and go against an aversive-emotion one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aedes aegypti is the main vector of Dengue Virus, carrying the virus during the whole mosquito life post-infection. Few mosquito fitness costs have been associated to the virus infection, thereby allowing for a swift dissemination. In order to diminish the mosquito population, public health agency use persistent chemicals with environmental impact for disease control. Most countries barely use biological controls, if at all. With the purpose of developing novel Dengue control strategies, a detailed understanding of the unexplored virus-vector interactions is urgently needed. Damage induced (through tissue injury or bacterial invasion) DNA duplication (endoreplication) has been described in insects during epithelial cells renewal. Here, we delved into the mosquito midgut tissue ability to synthesize DNA de novo; postulating that Dengue virus infection could trigger a protective endoreplication mechanism in some mosquito cells. We hypothesized that the Aedes aegypti orthologue of the Drosophila melanogaster hindsight gene (not previously annotated in Aedes aegypti transcriptome/genome) is part of the Delta-Notch pathway. The activation of this transcriptional cascade leads to genomic DNA endoreplication. The amplification of the genomic copies of specific genes ultimately limits the viral spreading during infection. Conversely, inhibiting DNA synthesis capacity, hence endoreplication, leads to a higher viral replication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay considers the role of time and temporality in literary journalism--and, more specifically, it investigates the temporal phenomenon known as belatedness, the common condition of the journalist's arriving late to a news scene. Along with considering the centrality of time to histories of modern American reporting, this essay also touches upon recent scholarly and theoretical thinking about time, timeliness, and time shifting in modern news writing. Meanwhile, the essay also explores--specifically in relation to the designation known as "slow" or long-form journalism--theoretical thinking about narrative time in nonfiction storytelling. The central interests here are in the stylistic, technical, and material dimensions of time in narrative journalism; the relationship between direct witnessing and retrospective hindsight; and the connections between narrative time and journalistic authority. Along with discussing long-form works by Michael Lewis, William Finnegan, Anne Fadiman, and others, the central text examined here is from Calvin Trillin's collection, Killings (1984), specifically, an essay originally published in his U.S. Journal series in the New Yorker. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Follicle rupture, the final step in ovulation, utilizes conserved molecular mechanisms including matrix metalloproteinases (Mmps), steroid signaling, and adrenergic signaling. It is still unknown how follicles become competent for follicle rupture/ovulation. Here, we identify a zinc-finger transcription factor Hindsight (Hnt) as the first transcription factor regulating follicle’s competency for ovulation in Drosophila. Hnt is not expressed in immature stage-13 follicle cells but is upregulated in mature stage-14 follicle cells, which is essential for follicle rupture/ovulation. Hnt upregulates Mmp2 expression in posterior follicle cells (essential for the breakdown of the follicle wall) and Oamb expression in all follicle cells (the receptor for receiving adrenergic signaling and inducing Mmp2 activation). Hnt’s role in regulating Mmp2 and Oamb can be replaced by its human homolog Ras-responsive element-binding protein 1 (RREB-1). Our data suggest that Hnt/RREB-1 plays conserved role in regulating follicle maturation and competency for ovulation.

This article, written in hindsight, is a personal account of a British Council and Afghan Ministry of Higher Education project that sought to establish mentoring relationships between the next generation of leaders in Afghanistan and volunteers from UK higher education. Several learning points have emerged: the need for a simple programme design; the inappropriateness of mentoring to develop management and leadership skills at this time; a desire to formalise inputs; a necessity for face-to-face input and the difficulties of establishing mentoring relationships virtually. These findings contribute to understanding of the difficulties of implementing virtual mentoring within a challenging post-conflict environment.

Egocentric bias is a core feature of autism. This phenomenon has been studied using the false belief task. However, typically developing children who pass categorical (pass or fail) false belief tasks may still show subtle egocentric bias. We examined 7- to 13-year-old children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD; n = 76) or typical development ( n = 113) using tasks with a continuous response scale: a modified false belief task and a visual hindsight bias task. All children showed robust egocentric bias on both tasks, but no group effects were found. Our large sample size, coupled with our sensitive tasks and resoundingly null group effects, indicate that children with and without ASD possess more similar egocentric tendencies than previously reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Egocentric bias is a core feature of autism. This phenomenon has been studied using the false belief task. However, typically developing children who pass categorical (pass or fail) false belief tasks may still show subtle egocentric bias. We examined 7- to 13-year-old children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD; n = 76) or typical development ( n = 113) using tasks with a continuous response scale: a modified false belief task and a visual hindsight bias task. All children showed robust egocentric bias on both tasks, but no group effects were found. Our large sample size, coupled with our sensitive tasks and resoundingly null group effects, indicate that children with and without ASD possess more similar egocentric tendencies than previously reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation pathways are increasingly being used as a foresight tool to help guide the implementation of climate change adaptation and deliberate transformation. This paper applies a pathways lens as a hindsight tool to provide new understanding about past change and adaptation relevant for improving future adaptation pathways approaches. Four case studies of past adaptations to change are examined: Solomon Islands Communities, Canadian forest-dependent communities, a Transylvanian village, and responses to climate adaptation policies in Australia. The results highlight that responses to change in these diverse case studies involve complex transitions that gradually create new conditions and trajectories; manifest as multiple but inter-related pathways of change and response at different social or spatial scales (e.g. different paths for different households or communities); have legacies and continuities across time that affect future pathways of change; are affected by power in complex ways; and can create further change and need for adaptation. Analyses also highlight that when working with prospective adaptation approaches as a response to climate change there is a need to consider: (1) underlying assumptions, values and principles associated with the future; (2) the existence of inter-connected multiple pathways and their implications for reinforcing existing social inequalities; and (3) how understanding past change provides inspiration for new and transformative futures. Overall, the paper concludes that shifts towards analyses for change rather than simply about change, such as adaptation pathways, will require more careful consideration of underlying ontological assumptions about the relationships between past, present and future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Well-planned urban infrastructure should meet critical loads during its design lifetime. In order to proceed with design, engineers are forced to make numerous assumptions with very little supporting information about the development of various drivers. For the wastewater sector, these drivers include the future amount and composition of the generated wastewater, effluent requirements, technologies, prices of inputs such as energy or chemicals, and the value of outputs produced such as nutrients for fertilizer use. When planning wastewater systems, there is a lack of methods to address discrepancies between the timescales at which fundamental changes in these drivers can occur, and the long physical life expectancy of infrastructure (on the order of 25–80 years). To explore these discrepancies, we take a hindsight perspective of the long-term development of wastewater infrastructure and assess the stability of assumptions made during previous designs. Repeatedly we find that the drivers influencing wastewater loads, environmental requirements or technological innovation can change at smaller timescales than the infrastructure design lifetime, often in less than a decade. Our analysis shows that i) built infrastructure is continuously confronted with challenges it was not conceived for, ii) significant adaptation occurs during a structure's lifetime, and iii) “muddling-through” is the pre-dominant strategy for adaptive management. As a consequence, we argue, there is a need to explore robust design strategies which require the systematic use of scenario planning methods and instruments to increase operational, structural, managerial, institutional and financial flexibility. Hindsight studies, such as this one, may inform the development of robust design strategies and assist in the transition to more explicit forms of adaptive management for urban infrastructures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two studies provided evidence that a decision to report an ambiguous case of child abuse affected subsequent memory of the case information, such that participants falsely recognized details that were not presented in the original information, but that are schematically associated with child abuse. Moreover, post-decision information that the child had later died from abuse influenced the memory reports of participants who had chosen not to report the case, increasing their reports of false schema-consistent details. This suggests that false decision-consistent memories are primarily due to sense-making, schematic processing rather than the motivation to justify the decision. The present findings points to an important mechanism by which decision information can become distorted in retrospect, and emphasize the difficulties of improving future decision-making by contemplating past decisions. The results also indicate that decisions may generate false memories in the apparent absence of external suggestion or misleading information. Implications for decision-making theory, and applied practices are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I analyze the role of hindsight in narrative configuration. Configuration means the grasping together of disparate elements into a coherent whole. I argue that hindsight, importantly, brings the temporal constraints on what we can know to the fore, but is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, hindsight is an indispensable tool both for historical research and for everyday narrative reflection. On the other, it biases our judgments, conceals the contingency of the world, and makes us view results as inevitable. The final part of the paper explores some possible implications of configuration and hindsight for the truth value of narratives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We identify an early amnion precursor within the anterior blastoderm embryo. [•] We describe hindsight (hnt) as a reliable serosa marker in Tribolium. [•] We show that Tc-dpp expression starts as an asymmetric domain. [•] We describe an anterior ventral domain of pMAD in the blastoderm embryo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazilian author Clarice Lispector (1920–77) created a number of naughty little girl characters. Their curiosity and questioning of social norms and their sometimes violent testing of boundaries are enactments of the author's frustration with the stifling conventions that seem to characterize the crossing of the threshold into female adulthood. Through the very act of writing childhood within the text, her narrators themselves find the perfect way to show how feelings of guilt, humiliation and cruelty can have unexpected, creative consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: The aim of this article is to extend sensemaking theory in public commission reporting by drawing attention to, and demonstrating differences in the temporal dynamics between past and future, hindsight and foresight within the sensemaking/sensegiving processes of two public commission reports. They are The Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States and The United States Commission into 21st Century Terrorism and National Security Report. Stemming from our analysis of how these commissions make sense of the risk posed by terrorism to national security, we seek to make three contributions. First, we develop sensemaking/sensegiving concepts in public commission reporting by theorizing about hindsight–foresight temporal dynamics. In particular, we extend existing sensemaking scholarship on public commission reporting by directing attention towards the important, yet under-scrutinized role that these inquiries have in sensemaking about the future. Second, we extend the presuppositions underpinning sensemaking theory by operationalizing concepts of antenarrative and employing them in our comparative analysis of the two reports. Third, we contribute to practice by illustrating empirically some of the ‘tactics’ that can be used for challenging hindsight about the known past for the purpose of improving foresight about an unknown future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Galileo Galilei's celebrated contributions to astronomy are used as case studies in the psychology of scientific discovery. Particular attention was devoted to the involvement of foresight, insight, oversight, and hindsight. These four mental acts concern, in divergent ways, the relative degree of "sightedness" in Galileo's discovery process and accordingly have implications for evaluating the blind-variation and selective-retention (BVSR) theory of creativity and discovery. Scrutiny of the biographical and historical details indicates that Galileo's mental processes were far less sighted than often depicted in retrospective accounts. Hindsight biases clearly tend to underline his insights and foresights while ignoring his very frequent and substantial oversights. Of special importance was how Galileo was able to create a domain-specific expertise where no such expertise previously existed-in part by exploiting his extensive knowledge and skill in the visual arts. Galileo's success as an astronomer was founded partly and "blindly" on his artistic avocations. The investigation closes by briefly discussing Antonie van Leeuwenhoek's similar creation of microscopic biology. This parallel case indicates that Galileo's telescopic astronomy was probably not unique as an illustration of how scientific discovery works in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a discussion of narrative unconscious that might be said to compromise culturally rooted of one's history, adapted from the chapter of the book "Hindsight: The Promise and Peril of Looking Backward."