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ImportanceChildhood poverty is associated with poor health and behavioral outcomes. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), first implemented in 1975, is the largest cash transfer program for working families with low income in the US.ObjectiveTo assess whether cumulative EITC payments received during childhood are associated with the risk of criminal conviction during adolescence.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study, the analytic sample consisted of US children enrolled in the 1979 National Longitudinal Study of Youth. The children were born between 1979 and 1998 and were interviewed as adolescents (age 15-19 years) between 1994 and 2016. Data analyses were performed from May 2021 to September 2022.ExposureCumulative simulated EITC received by the individual's family from birth through age 14 years.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was dichotomous, self-reported conviction for a crime during adolescence (age 14-18 years). A cumulative, simulated measure of mean EITC benefits received by a child's family from birth through age 14 years was derived from federal, state, and family-size differences in EITC eligibility and payments during the study period to capture EITC benefit variation due to differences in policy parameters but not endogenous factors such as changes in household income. Logistic regression models with fixed effects for state and year and robust SEs clustered by mother estimated relative risk of adolescent conviction. Models were adjusted for state-, mother-, and child-level covariates.ResultsThe analytical sample consisted of 5492 adolescents born between 1979 and 1998; 2762 (50.3%) were male, 1648 (30.0%) were Black, 1125 (20.5%) were Hispanic, and 2719 (49.5%) were not Black or Hispanic. Each additional $1000 of EITC received during childhood was associated with an 11% lower risk of self-reported criminal conviction during adolescence (adjusted odds ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.84-0.95). Adjusted risk differences were larger among boys (-14.2 self-reported convictions per 1000 population [95% CI, -22.0 to -6.3 per 1000 population]) than among girls (-6.2 per 1000 population [95% CI, -10.7 to -1.6 per 1000 population]).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings suggest that income support from the EITC may be associated with reduced youth involvement with the criminal justice system in the US. Cost-benefit analyses of the EITC should consider these longer-term and indirect outcomes.

Family- and neighborhood-level poverty are associated with youth violence. Economic policies may address this risk factor by reducing parental stress and increasing opportunities. The federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the largest cash transfer program in the US providing support to low-income working families. Many states have additional EITCs that vary in structure and generosity. To estimate the association between state EITC and youth violence, we conducted a repeated cross-sectional analysis using the variation in state EITC generosity over time by state and self-reported data in the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) from 2005 to 2019. We estimated the association for all youth and then stratified by sex and race and ethnicity. A 10-percentage point greater state EITC was significantly associated with 3.8% lower prevalence of physical fighting among youth, overall (PR: 0.96; 95% CI 0.94-0.99), and for male students, 149 fewer (95% CI: -243, -55) students per 10,000 experiencing physical fighting. A 10-percentage point greater state EITC was significantly associated with 118 fewer (95% CI: -184, -52) White students per 10,000 experiencing physical fighting in the past 12 months while reductions among Black students (75 fewer; 95% CI: -176, 26) and Hispanic/Latino students (14 fewer; 95% CI: -93, 65) were not statistically significant. State EITC generosity was not significantly associated with measures of violence at school. Economic policies that increase financial security and provide financial resources may reduce the burden of youth violence; further attention to their differential benefits among specific population subgroups is warranted.

Conventional methods for mediation analysis generate biased results when the mediator-outcome relationship depends on the treatment condition. This article shows how the ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting (RMPW) method can be used to decompose total effects into natural direct and indirect effects in the presence of treatment-by-mediator interactions. The indirect effect can be further decomposed into a pure indirect effect and a natural treatment-by-mediator interaction effect. Similar to other techniques for causal mediation analysis, RMPW generates causally valid results when the sequential ignorability assumptions hold. Yet unlike the model-based alternatives including path analysis, structural equation modeling, and their latest extensions, RMPW requires relatively few assumptions about the distribution of the outcome, the distribution of the mediator, and the functional form of the outcome model. Correct specification of the propensity score models for the mediator remains crucial when parametric RMPW is applied. The paper gives an intuitive explanation of the RMPW rationale, a mathematical proof, and simulation results for the parametric and non-parametric RMPW procedures. We apply the technique to identifying whether employment mediated the relationship between an experimental welfare-to-work program and maternal depression. A detailed delineation of the analytic procedures is accompanied by online Stata code as well as a stand-alone RMPW software program to facilitate users' analytic decision-making. [This article was published in "Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics," v40 n3 p307-340 Jun 2015 (see: EJ1063649).]

Conventional methods for mediation analysis generate biased results when the mediator--outcome relationship depends on the treatment condition. This article shows how the ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting (RMPW) method can be used to decompose total effects into natural direct and indirect effects in the presence of treatment-by-mediator interactions. The indirect effect can be further decomposed into a pure indirect effect and a natural treatment-by-mediator interaction effect. Similar to other techniques for causal mediation analysis, RMPW generates causally valid results when the sequential ignorability assumptions hold. Yet unlike the model-based alternatives, including path analysis, structural equation modeling, and their latest extensions, RMPW requires relatively few assumptions about the distribution of the outcome, the distribution of the mediator, and the functional form of the outcome model. Correct specification of the propensity score models for the mediator remains crucial when parametric RMPW is applied. This article gives an intuitive explanation of the RMPW rationale, a mathematical proof, and simulation results for the parametric and nonparametric RMPW procedures. We apply the technique to identifying whether employment mediated the relationship between an experimental welfare-to-work program and maternal depression. A detailed delineation of the analytic procedures is accompanied by online Stata code as well as a stand-alone RMPW software program to facilitate users' analytic decision making.

Child maltreatment impacts a significant share of children and families in the United States. In 2018, 7.8 million U.S. children were the subject of an investigation for suspected abuse or [...]

This study uses data from an experimental employment program and instrumental variables (IV) estimation to examine the effects of maternal job loss on child classroom behavior. Random assignment to the treatment at one of three program sites is an exogenous predictor of employment patterns. Cross-site variation in treatment-control differences is used to identify the effects of employment levels and transitions. Under certain assumptions, this method controls for unobserved correlates of job loss and child well-being, as well as measurement error and simultaneity. IV estimates suggest that maternal job loss sharply increases problem behavior but has neutral effects on positive social behavior. Current employment programs concentrate primarily on job entry, but these findings point to the importance of promoting job stability for workers and their children. (Contains 7 tables, 2 figures and 9 footnotes.)

The authors examined the effects of welfare programs that increased maternal employment and family income on the development of very young children using data from 5 random-assignment experiments. The children were 6 months to 3 years old when their mothers entered the programs; cognitive and behavioral outcomes were measured 2-5 years later. While there were no overall program impacts, positive or negative, on the development of children in this age group, there was a pair of domain- and age-specific effects: The programs decreased positive social behavior among 1-year-olds and increased school achievement among 2-year-olds. After exploring several explanations for these results, the authors suggest that the contextual changes engendered by the programs, including children's exposure to center-based child care, interacted differentially with specific developmental transitions.

Poverty is an important predictor of child maltreatment. Social policies that strengthen the economic security of low-income families, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), may reduce child maltreatment by impeding the pathways through which poverty leads to it. We used variations in the presence and generosity of supplementary EITCs offered at the state level and administrative child maltreatment data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) to examine the effect of EITC policies on state-level rates of child maltreatment from 2004 through 2017. Two-way fixed effects models indicated that a 10-percentage point increase in the generosity of refundable state EITC benefits was associated with 241 fewer reports of neglect per 100,000 children (95% Confidence Interval [CI] [−449, −33]). An increase in EITC generosity was associated with fewer reports of neglect both among children ages 0–5 (−324 per 100,000; 95% CI [−582, −65]) and children ages 6–17 (−201 per 100,000; 95% CI [−387, −15]). Findings also suggested associations between the EITC and reductions in other types of maltreatment (physical abuse, emotional abuse); however, those did not gain statistical significance. Economic support policies may reduce the risk of child maltreatment, especially neglect, and improve child wellbeing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a serious public health problem in the United States with adverse consequences for affected individuals and families. Recent reviews of the literature suggest that economic policies should be further investigated as part of comprehensive strategies to address IPV. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the nation's largest anti-poverty program for working parents, and especially benefits low-income women with children, who experience an elevated risk of IPV. The EITC may prevent IPV by offering financial resources; such resources may help individuals experiencing IPV leave abusive relationships or address IPV risk factors, thereby preventing entry into abusive relationships. However, the association between EITC generosity and IPV has not been previously examined. We used state-level and individual-level datasets to examine the association between EITC generosity and IPV. Our state-level data source was the nationally representative National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS; N = ~ 95,000 households per year). For NCVS, we used a difference-in-difference approach to investigate the relationship between state EITC generosity and IPV rates. We also used individual-level longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Well-being Study (n = 13,422 person-waves). Using this cohort of US families at higher risk for IPV, we evaluated associations between estimated EITC benefits based on the mother's state of residence and number of children and self-reported IPV. In both state- and individual-level analyses, no significant association between state EITC benefits and IPV was found. Factors that may account for these null findings include program ineligibility for individuals who separate from abusive spouses. Future research efforts should more closely examine EITC policy implementation processes and the lived experience of participating in anti-poverty programs for people experiencing IPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors examined the effects of welfare programs that increased maternal employment and family income on the development of very young children using data from 5 random-assignment experiments. The children were 6 months to 3 years old when their mothers entered the programs; cognitive and behavioral outcomes were measured 2-5 years later. While there were no overall program impacts, positive or negative, on the development of children in this age group, there was a pair of domain- and age-specific effects: The programs decreased positive social behavior among l-year-olds and increased school achievement among 2-year-olds. After exploring several explanations for these results, the authors suggest that the contextual changes engendered by the programs, including children's exposure to center-based child care, interacted differentially with specific developmental transitions. Keywords: welfare reform, infants and toddlers, stage-environment fit, maternal employment

States adopt minimum wages to improve workers' economic circumstances and well-being. Many studies, but not all, find evidence of health benefits from higher minimum wages. This study used a rigorous "triple difference" strategy to identify the associations between state minimum wages and adult obesity, body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2), hypertension, diabetes, fair or poor health, and serious psychological distress. National Health Interview Survey data (United States, 2008–2015) on adults aged 25–64 years (n  = 131,430) were linked to state policies to estimate the prevalence odds ratio or mean difference in these outcomes associated with a $1 increase in current and 2-year lagged minimum wage among less-educated adults overall and by sex, race/ethnicity, and age. In contrast to prior studies, there was no association between current minimum wage and health; however, 2-year lagged minimum wage was positively associated with the likelihood of obesity (prevalence odds ratio = 1.08, 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 1.16) and with elevated body mass index (mean difference = 0.27, 95% confidence interval: 0.04, 0.49). In subgroup models, current and 2-year lagged minimum wage were associated with a higher likelihood of obesity among male and non-White or Hispanic adults. The associations with hypertension also varied by sex and the timing of the exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]