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Abstract Background The epidemiology of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains poorly understood, despite the global recognition of its disease burden and the growing concern regarding antimicrobial resistance. This study aimed to systematically review the evidence on NG prevalence in MENA, estimate the pooled mean prevalence across different populations, and explore population-level associations with prevalence as well as sources of between-study heterogeneity. Methods The study conducted a systematic review, risk of bias assessment, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions, utilizing both published and unpublished evidence sourced from international, regional, and national databases, in adherence to PRISMA guidelines. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were employed to analyze the data. Results The study identified 341 NG prevalence measures from 21 countries in MENA. The pooled mean prevalence of current urogenital infection was 1.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1–2.8%) in the general population, with a higher pooled prevalence in studies with sample sizes

Summary: This study aimed to analytically describe the epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) infection in the United States through a systematic review and meta-analytics. We reviewed 159 publications, identifying 190 seroprevalence measures and 43 proportions of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes. The pooled mean HSV-1 seroprevalence was 38.0% (95% CI: 30.9–45.4) among general-population children and 63.5% (95% CI: 61.3–65.7) among general-population adults. Age explained 43% of the seroprevalence variation, with rates increasing progressively with age. Seroprevalence declined by 0.99-fold (95% CI: 0.99–0.99) per year. The pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes was 15.4% (95% CI: 10.8–20.6), increasing by 1.02-fold (95% CI: 1.00–1.04) per year. Recurrent genital herpes had a 0.17-fold (95% CI: 0.09–0.32) lower proportion of HSV-1 detection compared to first-episode cases. The epidemiology of HSV-1 is shifting, marked by a decline in oral acquisition during childhood and an increase in genital acquisition during adulthood.

Background: This study aimed to examine the transmission dynamics of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) in heterosexual sex work networks (HSWNs) and the impact of variation in sexual behavior and interventions on NG epidemiology. Methods: The study employed an individual-based mathematical model to simulate NG transmission dynamics in sexual networks involving female sex workers (FSWs) and their clients, primarily focusing on the Middle East and North Africa region. A deterministic model was also used to describe NG transmission from clients to their spouses. Results: NG epidemiology in HSWNs displays two distinct patterns. In the common low-partner-number HSWNs, a significant proportion of NG incidence occurs among FSWs, with NG prevalence 13 times higher among FSWs than clients, and three times higher among clients than their spouses. Interventions substantially reduce incidence. Increasing condom use from 10 % to 50 % lowers NG prevalence among FSWs, clients, and their spouses from 12.2 % to 6.4 %, 1.2 % to 0.5 %, and 0.4 % to 0.2 %, respectively. Increasing symptomatic treatment coverage among FSWs from 0 % to 100 % decreases prevalence from 10.6 % to 4.5 %, 0.8 % to 0.4 %, and 0.3 % to 0.1 %, respectively. Increasing asymptomatic treatment coverage among FSWs from 0 % to 50 % decreases prevalence from 8.2 % to 0.4 %, 0.6 % to 0.1 %, and 0.2 % to 0.0 %, respectively, with very low prevalence when coverage exceeds 50 %. In high-partner-number HSWNs, prevalence among FSWs saturates at a high level, and the vast majority of incidence occurs among clients and their spouses, with a limited impact of incremental increases in interventions. Conclusion: NG epidemiology in HSWNs is typically a ''fragile epidemiology'' that is responsive to a range of interventions even if the interventions are incremental, partially efficacious, and only applied to FSWs.

Biocrusts dominate the soil surface in deserts and are composed of diverse microbial communities that provide important ecosystem services. Cyanobacteria in biocrusts produce many secondary metabolites, including the neurotoxins BMAA, AEG, DAB, anatoxin-a(S) (guanitoxin), and the microcystin hepatotoxins, all known or suspected to cause disease or illness in humans and other animals. We examined cyanobacterial growth and prevalence of these toxins in biocrusts at millimeter-scales, under a desert-relevant illumination gradient. In contrast to previous work, we showed that hydration had an overall positive effect on growth and toxin accumulation, that nitrogen was not correlated with growth or toxin production, and that phosphorus enrichment negatively affected AEG and BMAA concentrations. Excess illumination positively correlated with AEG, and negatively correlated with all other toxins and growth. Basic pH negatively affected only the accumulation of BMAA. Anatoxin-a(S) (guanitoxin) was not correlated with any tested variables, while microcystins were not detected in any of the samples. Concerning toxin pools, AEG and BMAA were good predictors of the presence of one another. In a newly conceptualized scheme, we integrate aspects of biocrust growth and toxin pool accumulations with arid-relevant desertification drivers.

Abstract Limited data exist on viral hepatitis among migrant populations. This study investigated the prevalence of current hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and lifetime hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among Qatar's migrant craft and manual workers (CMWs), constituting 60% of the country's population. Sera collected during a nationwide COVID-19 population-based cross-sectional survey on CMWs between July 26 and September 9, 2020, underwent testing for HBsAg and HCV antibodies. Reactive samples underwent confirmatory testing, and logistic regression analyses were employed to explore associations with HBV and HCV infections. Among 2528 specimens tested for HBV infection, 15 were reactive, with 8 subsequently confirmed positive. Three samples lacked sufficient sera for confirmatory testing but were included in the analysis through multiple imputations. Prevalence of current HBV infection was 0.4% (95% CI 0.2–0.7%). Educational attainment and occupation were significantly associated with current HBV infection. For HCV infection, out of 2607 specimens tested, 46 were reactive, and 23 were subsequently confirmed positive. Prevalence of lifetime HCV infection was 0.8% (95% CI 0.5–1.2%). Egyptians exhibited the highest prevalence at 6.5% (95% CI 3.1–13.1%), followed by Pakistanis at 3.1% (95% CI 1.1–8.0%). Nationality, geographic location, and occupation were significantly associated with lifetime HCV infection. HBV infection is relatively low among CMWs, while HCV infection falls within the intermediate range, both compared to global and regional levels.

Objective: This study investigated the association between Coronavirus Disease 2019 mRNA vaccination and stroke in Qatar. Methods: Between December 1, 2020, and April 11, 2023, a matched case-control study was conducted to investigate the association between 3036 acute stroke cases and 3036 controls drawn from the entire population of Qatar. Results: The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for vaccination among cases compared to controls was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.75-1.00). The aOR was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.45-1.23) for a single vaccine dose, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.73-1.04) for primary-series vaccination (two doses), and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.66-1.25) for booster vaccination (three or more doses). The aOR was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.72-1.04) for BNT162b2 and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.67-1.11) for mRNA-1273. Subgroup analyses, considering different durations since vaccination, also demonstrated no association. Subgroup analyses based on nationality, age, number of coexisting conditions, or prior infection status yielded similar results. Subgroup analysis, stratified by stroke type, suggested an association between vaccination and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (aOR of 2.50 [95% CI: 0.97-6.44]), but it did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion: There was no evidence of an increased risk of stroke following vaccination, both in the short term and in the long term, extending beyond a year after receiving the vaccine.

Objectives Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection poses a global health challenge. By the end of 2021, the WHO estimated that less than a quarter of global HCV infections had been diagnosed. There is a need for a public health tool that can facilitate the identification of people with HCV infection and link them to testing and treatment, and that can be customised for each country.Methods We derived and validated a risk score to identify people with HCV in Egypt and demonstrated its utility. Using data from the 2008 and 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys, two risk scores were constructed through multivariable logistic regression analysis. A range of diagnostic metrics was then calculated to evaluate the performance of these scores.Results The 2008 and 2014 risk scores exhibited similar dependencies on sex, age and type of place of residence. Both risk scores demonstrated high and similar areas under the curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76 to 0.78) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.77 to 0.80), respectively. For the 2008 risk score, sensitivity was 73.7% (95% CI: 71.5% to 75.9%), specificity was 68.5% (95% CI: 67.5% to 69.4%), positive predictive value (PPV) was 27.8% (95% CI: 26.4% to 29.2%) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 94.1% (95% CI: 93.5% to 94.6%). For the 2014 risk score, sensitivity was 64.0% (95% CI: 61.5% to 66.6%), specificity was 78.2% (95% CI: 77.5% to 78.9%), PPV was 22.2% (95% CI: 20.9% to 23.5%) and NPV was 95.7% (95% CI: 95.4% to 96.1%). Each score was validated by applying it to a different survey database than the one used to derive it.Conclusions Implementation of HCV risk scores is an effective strategy to identify carriers of HCV infection and to link them to testing and treatment at low cost to national programmes.

BackgroundThere is a need for statistical methodologies that scrutinize civilian casualties in conflicts, evaluating the degree to which the conduct of war affects civilians and breaches the laws of war. Employing an epidemiological method, this study introduced, developed, and applied a novel approach for investigating mortality of civilians versus combatants in conflicts.MethodsA deterministic mathematical model, structured by age and sex, was developed to describe the process of conflict-related deaths among both combatants and civilians. The model was calibrated using demographic and conflict-related data from different Israel-Gaza conflicts. To quantify the extent of the impact on civilians and determine whether they are the primary focus of a conflict, a statistical metric, the index of killing civilians, along with associated criteria, was devised.ResultsThe model-estimated proportion of deaths in Gaza categorized as combatants was 62.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 57.6–66.2%), 51.1% (95% UI: 47.1–54.9%), and 12.7% (95% UI: 9.7–15.4%) in the 2008–2009, 2014, and 2023 Israel-Gaza conflicts, respectively. The index of killing civilians was 0.61 (95% UI: 0.51–0.74), 0.96 (95% UI: 0.82–1.12), and 7.01 (95% UI: 5.50–9.29) in the 2008–2009, 2014, and 2023 conflicts, respectively. These index values indicate strong evidence for civilians being an object of war in the 2008–2009 and 2014 conflicts, but combatants were still identified as the primary focus of the conflict. In the 2023 conflict, there is robust evidence for civilians being an object of war, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.ConclusionFindings imply a progressive shift in Israel’s rules of engagement over time, with a trend towards higher acceptance of casualties among civilians. The 2023 conflict stands apart from preceding Israel-Gaza conflicts, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.

IntroductionWe aimed to investigate the overlapping epidemiologies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men (MSM), and to explore to what extent the epidemiology of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) relates to or differs from that of another STI.MethodsAn individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was employed to simulate the concurrent transmission of STIs within diverse sexual networks of MSM. The model simulated sexual partnering, birth, death, and STI transmission within each specific sexual network. The model parameters were chosen based on the current knowledge and understanding of the natural history, transmission, and epidemiology of each considered STI. Associations were measured using the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (SRCC) and maximal information coefficient (MIC).ResultsA total of 500 sexual networks were simulated by varying the mean and variance of the number of partners for both short-term and all partnerships, degree correlation, and clustering coefficient. HSV-2 had the highest current infection prevalence across the simulations, followed by HIV, chlamydia, syphilis, and gonorrhea. Threshold and saturation effects emerged in the relationship between STIs across the simulated networks, and all STIs demonstrated moderate to strong associations. The strongest current infection prevalence association was between HIV and gonorrhea, with an SRCC of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80–0.87) and an MIC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74–0.88). The weakest association was between HSV-2 and syphilis, with an SRCC of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.48–0.59) and an MIC of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.49–0.65). Gonorrhea exhibited the strongest associations with the other STIs while syphilis had the weakest associations. Across the simulated networks, proportions of the population with zero, one, two, three, four, and five concurrent STI infections were 48.6, 37.7, 11.1, 2.4, 0.3, and

IntroductionReinfections are increasingly becoming a feature in the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. However, accurately defining reinfection poses methodological challenges. Conventionally, reinfection is defined as a positive test occurring at least 90 days after a previous infection diagnosis. Yet, this extended time window may lead to an underestimation of reinfection occurrences. This study investigated the prospect of adopting an alternative, shorter time window for defining reinfection.MethodsA longitudinal study was conducted to assess the incidence of reinfections in the total population of Qatar, from February 28, 2020 to November 20, 2023. The assessment considered a range of time windows for defining reinfection, spanning from 1 day to 180 days. Subgroup analyses comparing first versus repeat reinfections and a sensitivity analysis, focusing exclusively on individuals who underwent frequent testing, were performed.ResultsThe relationship between the number of reinfections in the population and the duration of the time window used to define reinfection revealed two distinct dynamical domains. Within the initial 15 days post-infection diagnosis, almost all positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 were attributed to the original infection. However, surpassing the 30-day post-infection threshold, nearly all positive tests were attributed to reinfections. A 40-day time window emerged as a sufficiently conservative definition for reinfection. By setting the time window at 40 days, the estimated number of reinfections in the population increased from 84,565 to 88,384, compared to the 90-day time window. The maximum observed reinfections were 6 and 4 for the 40-day and 90-day time windows, respectively. The 40-day time window was appropriate for defining reinfection, irrespective of whether it was the first, second, third, or fourth occurrence. The sensitivity analysis, confined to high testers exclusively, replicated similar patterns and results.DiscussionA 40-day time window is optimal for defining reinfection, providing an informed alternative to the conventional 90-day time window. Reinfections are prevalent, with some individuals experiencing multiple instances since the onset of the pandemic.

Objectives: We assessed short-, medium-, and long-term all-cause mortality risks after a primary SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: A national, matched, retrospective cohort study was conducted in Qatar to assess risk of all-cause mortality in the national SARS-CoV-2 primary infection cohort compared with the national infection-naïve cohort. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression models. Analyses were stratified by vaccination status and clinical vulnerability status. Results: Among unvaccinated persons, within 90 days after primary infection, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) comparing mortality incidence in the primary-infection cohort with the infection-naïve cohort was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.02-1.39). aHR was 1.34 (1.11-1.63) in persons more clinically vulnerable to severe COVID-19 and 0.94 (0.72-1.24) in those less clinically vulnerable. Beyond 90 days after primary infection, aHR was 0.50 (0.37-0.68); aHR was 0.41 (0.28-0.58) at 3-7 months and 0.76 (0.46-1.26) at ≥8 months. The aHR was 0.37 (0.25-0.54) in more clinically vulnerable persons and 0.77 (0.48-1.24) in less clinically vulnerable persons. Among vaccinated persons, mortality incidence was comparable in the primary-infection versus infection-naïve cohorts, regardless of clinical vulnerability status. Conclusions: COVID-19 mortality was primarily driven by an accelerated onset of death among individuals who were already vulnerable to all-cause mortality, but vaccination prevented these accelerated deaths.

Abstract Background Limited data exists on herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and type 2 (HSV-2) infections in migrant populations. This study investigated HSV-1 and HSV-2 seroprevalences and associations among craft and manual workers (CMWs) in Qatar who constitute 60% of Qatar’s population. Methods A national population-based cross-sectional seroprevalence survey was conducted on the CMW population, all men, between July 26 and September 9, 2020. 2,612 sera were tested for anti-HSV-1 IgG antibodies using HerpeSelect 1 ELISA IgG kits and for anti-HSV-2 IgG antibodies using HerpeSelect 2 ELISA IgG kits (Focus Diagnostics, USA). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify associations with HSV-1 and HSV-2 infections. Results Serological testing identified 2,171 sera as positive, 403 as negative, and 38 as equivocal for HSV-1 antibodies, and 300 sera as positive, 2,250 as negative, and 62 as equivocal for HSV-2 antibodies. HSV-1 and HSV-2 seroprevalences among CMWs were estimated at 84.2% (95% CI 82.8–85.6%) and 11.4% (95% CI 10.1–12.6%), respectively. HSV-1 infection was associated with nationality, educational attainment, and occupation. HSV-2 infection was associated with age, nationality, and educational attainment. Conclusions Over 80% of CMWs are infected with HSV-1 and over 10% are infected with HSV-2. The findings highlight the need for sexual health programs to tackle sexually transmitted infections among the CMW population.

BackgroundHepatitis A virus (HAV) is the predominant cause of acute viral hepatitis worldwide; however, data on HAV antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) among migrant populations are limited. This study aimed to investigate HAV seroprevalence among Qatar's migrant craft and manual workers (CMWs), constituting approximately 60% of the country's population.MethodsHAV antibody testing was conducted on stored serum specimens obtained from CMWs during a nationwide severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) population-based cross-sectional survey between July 26 and September 9, 2020. Associations with HAV infection were investigated through regression analyses.ResultsOf the 2,607 specimens with HAV antibody test results, 2,393 were positive, and 214 were negative. The estimated HAV seroprevalence among CMWs was 92.0% (95% CI: 90.9-93.1%). HAV seroprevalence was generally high but exhibited some variation, ranging from 70.9% (95% CI: 62.4-78.2%) among Sri Lankans to 99.8% (95% CI: 98.2-99.9%) among Pakistanis. The multivariable regression analysis identified age, nationality, and educational attainment as statistically significant factors associated with HAV infection. Relative to CMWs aged ≤29 years, the adjusted relative risk (ARR) was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03-1.10) in CMWs aged 30-39 years and reached 1.15 (95% CI: 1.10-1.19) in those aged ≥50 years. In comparison to Indians, the ARR was lower among Sri Lankans, assessed at 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72-0.91), but higher among Nepalese at 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04-1.11), Bangladeshis at 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07-1.13), Pakistanis at 1.12 (95% CI: 1.09-1.15), and Egyptians at 1.15 (95% CI: 1.08-1.23). No evidence for differences was found by geographic location or occupation.ConclusionsHAV seroprevalence among Qatar's CMW population is very high, with over nine out of every ten individuals having been exposed to this infection, likely during childhood.

BackgroundWe analyzed the prevalence of active infection with common curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs) including N. gonorrhea, C. trachomatis, T. vaginalis, and T. pallidum, as well as active infection with HPV, herpes simplex virus types I (HSV-1) and II (HSV-2), M. hominis, M. genitalium, C. albicans, and Ureaplasma in 351 Lebanese women.MethodsA cross-sectional study, involving 351 sexually active women, 40 years or younger, who were recruited from outpatient Obstetrics and Gynecology clinic attendees between September 2016 and November 2017.ResultsThe prevalence of active infection was low at 0.3% for N. gonorrhea, 0.6% for HSV-2, 2.8% for C. trachomatis, and 2.9% for any curable STIs. Prevalence of active HPV infection was high assessed at 15.7% for high-risk and 12.2% for low-risk genotypes. Furthermore, the prevalence was 2.0% for M. genitalium, 6.8% for ureaplasma, 13.7% for Candida albicans, and 20.5% for M. hominis. No active infections with T. vaginalis, T. pallidum, or HSV-1 were observed. Significant age differences were noted in the prevalence of high-risk and low-risk HPV genotypes, but no such differences were noted in the prevalence of other infections. No appreciable variations were identified in the prevalence of key STIs based on smoking, marital status, or the number of sexual partners.ConclusionsThe study documented active infection with substantial prevalence for multiple STIs among women attending outpatient gynecology and obstetrics clinics in Lebanon. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening STI surveillance, linkage to care, and prevention interventions in reducing STI incidence among women.

BackgroundHepatitis C virus (HCV) infection levels in Jordan remain uncertain. No HCV national population-based survey has ever been conducted in the country. To meet the World Health Organization’s target of reducing HCV incidence to ≤5 per 100,000 people per year by 2030, it is essential to determine the infection levels, identify affected individuals and populations, and provide appropriate treatment using direct-acting antivirals to individuals carrying the virus.MethodsThe study utilized the HCV testing database of 28,798 attendees of Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories in Jordan, covering the period from January 19, 2010, to May 26, 2023. Cross-sectional and cohort study analyses were conducted, including estimating HCV antibody (Ab) prevalence, examining associations with HCV Ab positivity, determining the HCV viremic rate, and estimating HCV incidence rate using a retrospective cohort study design.ResultsA total of 27,591 individuals, with a median age of 31.3 and 52.9% being females, underwent HCV Ab testing, while 1,450 individuals, with a median age of 42.2 and 32.8% being females, underwent HCV RNA PCR testing. The study sample HCV Ab prevalence was 4.0% (95% CI: 3.7–4.2%). After applying probability weights, the weighted HCV Ab prevalence was 5.8% (95% CI: 4.6–7.3%). Age was strongly associated with HCV Ab positivity, particularly among individuals aged 50 years or older, who had 10-fold higher odds of being HCV Ab positive compared to those aged 10–19 years. Males had 2.41-fold higher odds of testing positive for HCV Ab compared to females. The HCV viremic rate was 54.1% (95% CI: 43.0–65.0%). The cumulative incidence of HCV infection, after 5 years of follow-up, was estimated to be 0.41% (95% CI: 0.17–0.99%). The HCV incidence rate was calculated at 1.19 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.50–2.87).ConclusionPrevalence and incidence of HCV infection were substantial, estimated at ~5% and 1 per 1,000 person-years, respectively, and highlighting the presence of core groups actively engaged in the virus’ acquisition and transmission. The high observed viremic rate indicates the need for expanding HCV treatment efforts to effectively control HCV transmission in Jordan. Utilizing quality diagnostic laboratories and innovative testing strategies is key to identifying infection carriers and facilitating linkage to treatment and care.

Summary: Background: Monitoring progress towards the WHO global target to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, entails reliable prevalence estimates for HCV infection in different populations. Little is known about the global burden of HCV infection in pregnant women. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we estimated the global and regional seroprevalence of HCV antibody (Ab) and determinants in pregnant women. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis study, we searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, and SciELO databases for peer-reviewed observational studies between January 1, 2000 and April 1, 2023, without language or geographical restrictions. Pooled global seroprevalence (and 95% confidence interval, CI) were estimated using random-effects meta-analysis and seroprevalences were categorised according to World Health Organization regions and subregions, publishing year, countries’ income and human development index (HDI) levels. We used sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of four large sample size studies on pooled global prevalence through the “leave-one-out” method. We also investigated the association of potential risk factors with HCV seropositivity in pregnant women by subgroup and meta-regression analyses. The Protocol was registered in PROSPERO CRD42023423259. Findings: We included 192 eligible studies (208 datasets), with data for 148,509,760 pregnant women from 53 countries. The global seroprevalence of HCV Ab in pregnant women was 1.80% (95% CI, 1.72–1.89%) and 3.29% (3.01–3.57%) in overall and sensitivity analyses, respectively. The seroprevalence was highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (6.21%, 4.39–8.29%) and lowest in the Western Pacific region (0.75%, 0.38–1.22%). Subgroup analysis indicated that the seroprevalence of HCV Ab among pregnant women was significantly higher for those with opioid use disorder (51.94%, 95% CI: 37.32–66.39) and HIV infection (4.34%, 95% CI: 2.21–7.06%) than for the general population of pregnant women (1.08%, 95% CI: 1.02–1.15%), as confirmed by multivariable meta-regression (p

Summary: In counteracting highly infectious and disruptive respiratory diseases such as COVID-19, vaccination remains the primary and safest way to prevent disease, reduce the severity of illness, and save lives. Unfortunately, vaccination is often not the first intervention deployed for a new pandemic, as it takes time to develop and test vaccines, and confirmation of safety requires a period of observation after vaccination to detect potential late-onset vaccine-associated adverse events. In the meantime, nonpharmacologic public health interventions such as mask-wearing and social distancing can provide some degree of protection. As climate change, with its environmental impacts on pathogen evolution and international mobility continue to rise, highly infectious respiratory diseases will likely emerge more frequently and their impact is expected to be substantial. How quickly a safe and efficacious vaccine can be deployed against rising infectious respiratory diseases may be the most important challenge that humanity will face in the near future. While some organizations are engaged in addressing the World Health Organization's ''blueprint for priority diseases'', the lack of worldwide preparedness, and the uncertainty around universal vaccine availability, remain major concerns. We therefore propose the establishment of an international candidate vaccine pool repository for potential respiratory diseases, supported by multiple stakeholders and countries that contribute facilities, technologies, and other medical and financial resources. The types and categories of candidate vaccines can be determined based on information from previous pandemics and epidemics. Each participant country or region can focus on developing one or a few vaccine types or categories, together covering most if not all possible potential infectious diseases. The safety of these vaccines can be tested using animal models. Information for effective candidates that can be potentially applied to humans will then be shared across all participants. When a new pandemic arises, these pre-selected and tested vaccines can be quickly tested in RCTs for human populations.

Summary: Background: Protection against SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 of previous infection, mRNA two-dose vaccination, mRNA three-dose vaccination, and hybrid immunity of previous infection and vaccination were investigated in Qatar for the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants. Methods: Six national, matched, test-negative, case-control studies were conducted between January 18 and December 18, 2021 on a sample of 239,120 PCR-positive tests and 6,103,365 PCR-negative tests. Findings: Effectiveness of previous infection against Alpha, Beta, and Delta reinfection was 89.5% (95% CI: 85.5–92.3%), 87.9% (95% CI: 85.4–89.9%), and 90.0% (95% CI: 86.7–92.5%), respectively. Effectiveness of two-dose BNT162b2 vaccination against Alpha, Beta, and Delta infection was 90.5% (95% CI, 83.9–94.4%), 80.5% (95% CI: 79.0–82.0%), and 58.1% (95% CI: 54.6–61.3%), respectively. Effectiveness of three-dose BNT162b2 vaccination against Delta infection was 91.7% (95% CI: 87.1–94.7%). Effectiveness of hybrid immunity of previous infection and two-dose BNT162b2 vaccination was 97.4% (95% CI: 95.4–98.5%) against Beta infection and 94.5% (95% CI: 92.8–95.8%) against Delta infection. Effectiveness of previous infection and three-dose BNT162b2 vaccination was 98.1% (95% CI: 85.7–99.7%) against Delta infection. All five forms of immunity had >90% protection against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 regardless of variant. Similar effectiveness estimates were observed for mRNA-1273. A mathematical model accurately predicted hybrid immunity protection by assuming that the individual effects of previous infection and vaccination acted independently. Interpretation: Hybrid immunity, offering the strongest protection, was mathematically predicted by assuming that the immunities obtained from previous infection and vaccination act independently, without synergy or redundancy. Funding: The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114.

Background: Some studies have reported that influenza vaccination is associated with lower risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and/or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity and mortality. This study aims to estimate effectiveness of influenza vaccination, using Abbott’s quadrivalent Influvac Tetra vaccine, against SARS-CoV-2 infection and against severe COVID-19. Methods: This matched, test-negative, case-control study was implemented on a population of 30,774 healthcare workers (HCWs) in Qatar during the 2020 annual influenza vaccination campaign, September 17, 2020-December 31, 2020, before introduction of COVID-19 vaccination. Results: Of 30,774 HCWs, 576 with PCR-positive tests and 10,033 with exclusively PCR-negative tests were eligible for inclusion in the study. Matching by sex, age, nationality, reason for PCR testing, and PCR test date yielded 518 cases matched to 2058 controls. Median duration between influenza vaccination and the PCR test was 43 days (IQR, 29–62). Estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection> 14 days after receiving the vaccine was 29.7% (95% CI: 5.5–47.7%). Estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 was 88.9% (95% CI: 4.1–98.7%). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the main analysis results. Conclusions: Recent influenza vaccination is associated with a significant reduction in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity.

Abstract This study characterized population-level trends and associations with hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody (Ab) prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Data source was the standardized and systematically gathered MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project Database. Random-effects univariable and multivariable meta-regressions were conducted. 2,621 HCV Ab prevalence measures on 49,824,108 individuals were analyzed. In the analysis including all populations, 71% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by at-risk population type. Compared to the general population, prevalence was 23-fold higher among people who inject drugs, and 14-fold higher among high-risk clinical populations. In the analysis including only the general population, 67% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by country/subregion. Compared to Afghanistan, prevalence was highest in Egypt and Pakistan. Prevalence in the general population was declining at a rate of 4% per year, but outside the general population, the decline was at only 1% per year. HCV Ab prevalence in MENA is declining rapidly, but this decline is largely occurring in the general population following introduction of blood and injection safety measures. The decline in populations at higher risk of exposure is slow and below the level needed to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Objectives: To estimate the real-world effectiveness of sotrovimab against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 in Qatar at a time in which most SARS-CoV-2 incidences occurred due to the BA.2 Omicron subvariant. Methods: We conducted a matched case-control study among all individuals eligible for sotrovimab treatment per United States Food and Drug Administration guidelines in the resident population of Qatar. The odds of progression to severe forms of COVID-19 were compared in cases (treatment group) versus controls (eligible patients who opted not to receive the treatment). Subgroup analyses were conducted. Results: A total of 3364 individuals were eligible for sotrovimab treatment during the study period, of whom 519 individuals received the treatment, whereas the remaining 2845 constituted the controls. The adjusted odds ratio of disease progression to severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 comparing the treatment group to the control group was 2.67 (95% confidence interval 0.60-11.91). In the analysis including only the subgroup of patients at higher risk of severe forms of COVID-19, the adjusted odds ratio was 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.17-2.48). Conclusion: There was no evidence for a protective effect of sotrovimab in reducing COVID-19 severity in a setting dominated by the BA.2 subvariant.

Summary: Background: Waning of natural infection protection and vaccine protection highlight the need to evaluate changes in population immunity over time. Population immunity of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19 vaccination are defined, respectively, as the overall protection against reinfection or against breakthrough infection at a given point in time in a given population. Methods: We estimated these population immunities in Qatar's population between July 1, 2020 and November 30, 2022, to discern generic features of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Effectiveness of previous infection, mRNA primary-series vaccination, and mRNA booster (third-dose) vaccination in preventing infection were estimated, month by month, using matched, test-negative, case–control studies. Findings: Previous-infection effectiveness against reinfection was strong before emergence of Omicron, but declined with time after a wave and rebounded after a new wave. Effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 88.3% (95% CI: 84.8–91.0%) in November 2021 to 51.0% (95% CI: 48.3–53.6%) in December 2021. Primary-series effectiveness against infection was 84.0% (95% CI: 83.0–85.0%) in April 2021, soon after introduction of vaccination, before waning gradually to 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5–58.2%) by November 2021. Effectiveness declined linearly by ∼1 percentage point every 5 days. After Omicron emergence, effectiveness dropped from 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5–58.2%) in November 2021 to negligible levels in December 2021. Booster effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 83.0% (95% CI: 65.6–91.6%) in November 2021 to 32.9% (95% CI: 26.7–38.5%) in December 2021, and continued to decline thereafter. Effectiveness of previous infection and vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were generally >80% throughout the study duration. Interpretation: High population immunity against infection may not be sustained beyond a year, but population immunity against severe COVID-19 is durable with slow waning even after Omicron emergence. Funding: The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114.

BackgroundDirect-acting antivirals opened an opportunity for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the region most affected by HCV infection. Impact of HCV treatment as prevention (HCV-TasP) was investigated in 19 MENA countries.MethodsAn age-structured mathematical model was used to assess program impact using epidemiologic and programming measures. The model was fitted to a database of systematically gathered HCV antibody prevalence data. Two main scenarios were investigated for the treatment roll-out to achieve (i) 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030, and (ii) incidence rate

The level of immunity induced by infection with different SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sub-lineages against infection with other sub-lineages is not known. Here, the authors use data from Qatar and show that infection with BA.1 induces strong protection against infection with BA.2, and vice versa, for several weeks.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has subvariants with divergent properties but relative vaccine effectiveness has not been characterized. Here, the authors show that mRNA vaccine effectiveness is similar for the subvariants BA.1 and BA.2, with a decline three months after the second dose and increase after the booster.

Objective To investigate all-cause mortality, COVID-19 mortality and all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods A national, retrospective cohort analysis and national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted between 5 February 2020 and 19 September 2022.Results There were 5025 deaths during a follow-up time of 5 247 220 person-years, of which 675 were COVID-19 related. Incidence rates were 0.96 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.98) per 1000 person-years for all-cause mortality, 0.13 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.14) per 1000 person-years for COVID-19 mortality and 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.85) per 1000 person-years for all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality. Adjusted HR, comparing all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 0.38 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.44), highest for Filipinos at 0.56 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.69) and was 0.51 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.58) for craft and manual workers (CMWs). Adjusted HR, comparing COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 1.54 (95% CI 0.97 to 2.44), highest for Nepalese at 5.34 (95% CI 1.56 to 18.34) and was 1.86 (95% CI 1.32 to 2.60) for CMWs. Incidence rate of all-cause mortality for each nationality group was lower than the crude death rate in the country of origin.Conclusions Risk of non-COVID-19 death was low and was lowest among CMWs, perhaps reflecting the healthy worker effect. Risk of COVID-19 death was also low, but was highest among CMWs, largely reflecting higher exposure during first epidemic wave, before advent of effective COVID-19 treatments and vaccines.

Abstract Background Prospective observational data show that infected persons with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remain polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive for a prolonged duration, and that detectable antibodies develop slowly with time. We aimed to analyze how these effects can bias key epidemiological metrics used to track and monitor SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. Methods An age-structured mathematical model was constructed to simulate progression of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in populations. PCR testing to diagnose infection and cross-sectional surveys to measure seroprevalence were also simulated. Analyses were conducted on simulated outcomes assuming a natural epidemic time course and an epidemic in presence of interventions. Results The prolonged PCR positivity biased the epidemiological measures. There was a lag of 10 days between the true epidemic peak and the actually-observed peak. Prior to epidemic peak, PCR positivity rate was twofold higher than that based only on current active infection, and half of those tested positive by PCR were in the prolonged PCR positivity stage after infection clearance. Post epidemic peak, PCR positivity rate poorly predicted true trend in active infection. Meanwhile, the prolonged PCR positivity did not appreciably bias estimation of the basic reproduction number R 0. The time delay in development of detectable antibodies biased measured seroprevalence. The actually-observed seroprevalence substantially underestimated true prevalence of ever infection, with the underestimation being most pronounced around epidemic peak. Conclusions Caution is warranted in interpreting PCR and serological testing data, and any drawn inferences need to factor the effects of the investigated biases for an accurate assessment of epidemic dynamics.

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and reinfections in those with prior infection are a public health concern. Here, the authors show that viral loads of vaccine breakthrough infections and reinfections are generally lower than primary infections of unvaccinated individuals, potentially indicating lower infectiousness.

Summary: Background: The higher hospitalisation rates of those aged 0–19 years (referred to herein as ‘children’) observed since the emergence of the immune-evasive SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and subvariants, along with the persisting vaccination disparities highlighted a need for in-depth knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 sero-epidemiology in children. Here, we conducted this systematic review to assess SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and determinants in children worldwide. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis study, we searched international and preprinted scientific databases from December 1, 2019 to July 10, 2022. Pooled seroprevalences were estimated according to World Health Organization (WHO) regions (at 95% confidence intervals, CIs) using random-effects meta-analyses. Associations with SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and sources of heterogeneity were investigated using sub-group and meta-regression analyses. The protocol used in this study has been registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022350833). Findings: We included 247 studies involving 757,075 children from 70 countries. Seroprevalence estimates varied from 7.3% (5.8–9.1%) in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic to 37.6% (18.1–59.4%) in the fifth wave and 56.6% (52.8–60.5%) in the sixth wave. The highest seroprevalences in different pandemic waves were estimated for South-East Asia (17.9–81.8%) and African (17.2–66.1%) regions; while the lowest seroprevalence was estimated for the Western Pacific region (0.01–1.01%). Seroprevalence estimates were higher in children at older ages, in those living in underprivileged countries or regions, and in those of minority ethnic backgrounds. Interpretation: Our findings indicate that, by the end of 2021 and before the Omicron wave, around 50–70% of children globally were still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, clearly emphasising the need for more effective vaccines and better vaccination coverage among children and adolescents, particularly in developing countries and minority ethnic groups. Funding: None.

Background: Breakthrough infections after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination have been reported. Clinical outcomes in these persons are not widely known. Methods: We evaluated all vaccinated persons with breakthrough infection ≥14 days after the second vaccine dose and unvaccinated controls matched on age, sex, nationality, and reason for testing between December 23, 2020 and March 28, 2021 in Qatar. Our primary outcome was severe disease defined as hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, or death. Results: Among 456 persons cases of breakthrough infection and 456 unvaccinated matched controls with confirmed infection, median age was 45 years, 60.7% were males, and ≥1 comorbid condition was present in 61.2% of the vaccinated and 47.8% of the unvaccinated persons (P=0.009). Severe disease was recorded in 48 (10.5%) of the vaccinated and 121 (26.5%) of the unvaccinated group (P40–60 years, HR 2.32; >60–70 years, HR 4.34; >70 years, HR 5.43); presence of symptoms at baseline (HR 2.42, 95%CI 1.44-4.07); and being unvaccinated (HR 2.84, 95%CI 1.80-4.47). Conclusions: In persons with breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection, increasing age is associated with a higher risk of severe disease or death, while vaccination is associated with a lower risk. Presence of comorbidities was not associated with severe disease or death among persons with breakthrough infection.

Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic resulted in considerable morbidity and mortality as well as severe economic and societal disruptions. Despite scientific progress, true infection severity, factoring both diagnosed and undiagnosed infections, remains poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age-stratified and overall morbidity and mortality rates based on analysis of extensive epidemiological data for the pervasive epidemic in Qatar, a country where

In 2021, Qatar experienced considerable incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection that was dominated sequentially by the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants. Using the cycle threshold (Ct) value of an RT-qPCR-positive test to proxy the inverse of infectiousness, we investigated infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 infections by variant, age, sex, vaccination status, prior infection status, and reason for testing in a random sample of 18,355 RT-qPCR-genotyped infections. Regression analyses were conducted to estimate associations with the Ct value of RT-qPCR-positive tests. Compared to Beta infections, Alpha and Delta infections demonstrated 2.56 higher Ct cycles (95% CI: 2.35-2.78), and 4.92 fewer cycles (95% CI: 4.67- 5.16), respectively. The Ct value declined gradually with age and was especially high for children

Background: Unused medications in homes pose significant health, economic, and environmental risks. Patients are the medications end users and their knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) play an important role towards medication use, unuse and wastage. Thus, a valid instrument to reliably measure patients’ KAP towards unused medications in homes may help manage the associated risks. Objective: To develop, translate, and validate a questionnaire for the assessment patients’ KAP towards unused medications in Qatar homes (i.e., QUM-Qatar). Setting: This cross-sectional validation study was conducted among randomly selected outpatients visiting various public and private pharmacies in Qatar between September 2019 and February 2020. Method: Nine experts in the field of pharmacy practice with Qatar contextual background established the content validity of the instrument. The validity was quantified using content validity index (CVI). Furthermore, construct validity was performed using principal component analysis (PCA), whereas internal consistency reliability of items was determined using Cronbach’s alpha. Statistical analyses were performed using STATA 15 statistical software. Main outcome measure: The psychometric properties of the QUM-Qatar assessment instrument. Results: An English/Arabic questionnaire was developed and validated. Content validity in the form of scale-level-CVI (S-CVI)/Average and S-CVI/UA was 0.88 and 0.84, respectively, suggesting adequate relevant content of the questionnaire. Variation explained by the multivariate model was 85.0% for knowledge, 94.8% for attitude, and 89.8% for practice. Cronbach’s alpha coefficients were 0.68, 0.82, and 0.84, for knowledge, attitude, and practice domains, respectively. From the psychometric results obtained, the questionnaire's validity and reliability were attained. Conclusion: The QUM-Qatar instrument has acceptable psychometric properties and has the potential for future use in research and practice to assess KAP towards unused medications in Qatar and elsewhere. It may consequently help in improving medication use and mitigating the negative health, economic, and environmental impacts of unused medications.Impacts on practice. • There is now a valid and reliable English/Arabic language questionnaire to assess patients’ KAP towards unused medications. • Policymakers can utilize this questionnaire to develop evidence-based policies and strategies for managing unused medications and their disposal. • To improve medication use review, rational use of medicines, and adherence, it is necessary to consider patient-reported outcomes that may eventually reflect on saving health, economic resources, and environment.

Abstract Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has shown to reduce mortality compared to surgical aortic valve replacement (sAVR). However, it is unknown which procedure is associated with better post-procedural valvular function. We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials that compared TAVR to sAVR for at least 2 years. The primary outcome was post-procedural patient-prosthesis-mismatch (PPM). Secondary outcomes were post-procedural and 2-year: effective orifice area (EOA), paravalvular gradient (PVG) and moderate/severe paravalvular leak (PVL). We identified 6 trials with a total of 7022 participants with severe aortic stenosis. TAVR was associated with 37% (95% CI [0.51–0.78) mean RR reduction of post-procedural PPM, a decrease that was not affected by the surgical risk at inclusion, neither by the transcatheter heart valve system. Postprocedural changes in gradient and EOA were also in favor of TAVR as there was a pooled mean difference decrease of 0.56 (95% CI [0.73–0.38]) in gradient and an increase of 0.47 (95% CI [0.38–0.56]) in EOA. Additionally, self-expandable valves were associated with a higher decrease in gradient than balloon ones (beta = 0.38; 95% CI [0.12–0.64]). However, TAVR was associated with a higher risk of moderate/severe PVL (pooled RR: 9.54, 95% CI [5.53–16.46]). All results were sustainable at 2 years.

Abstract Performance of three automated commercial serological IgG-based assays was investigated for assessing SARS-CoV-2 “ever” (past or current) infection in a population-based sample in a high exposure setting. PCR and serological testing was performed on 394 individuals. SARS-CoV-2-IgG seroprevalence was 42.9% (95% CI 38.1–47.8%), 40.6% (95% CI 35.9–45.5%), and 42.4% (95% CI 37.6–47.3%) using the CL-900i, VidasIII, and Elecsys assays, respectively. Between the three assays, overall, positive, and negative percent agreements ranged between 93.2–95.7%, 89.3–92.8%, and 93.8–97.8%, respectively; Cohen’s kappa statistic ranged from 0.86 to 0.91; and 35 specimens (8.9%) showed discordant results. Among all individuals, 12.5% (95% CI 9.6–16.1%) had current infection, as assessed by PCR. Of these, only 34.7% (95% CI 22.9–48.7%) were seropositive by at least one assay. A total of 216 individuals (54.8%; 95% CI 49.9–59.7%) had evidence of ever infection using antibody testing and/or PCR during or prior to this study. Of these, only 78.2%, 74.1%, and 77.3% were seropositive in the CL-900i, VidasIII, and Elecsys assays, respectively. All three assays had comparable performance and excellent agreement, but missed at least 20% of individuals with past or current infection. Commercial antibody assays can substantially underestimate ever infection, more so when infection rates are high.

Different COVID-19 treatment candidates are under development, and some are becoming available including two promising drugs from Merck and Pfizer. This study provides conceptual frameworks for the effects of three types of treatments, both therapeutic and prophylactic, and to investigate their population-level impact, to inform drug development, licensure, decision-making, and implementation. Different drug efficacies were assessed using an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, with application to the United States as an illustrative example. Severe and critical infection treatment reduces progression to COVID-19 severe and critical disease and death with small number of treatments needed to avert one disease or death. Post-exposure prophylaxis treatment had a large impact on flattening the epidemic curve, with large reductions in infection, disease, and death, but the impact was strongly age dependent. Pre-exposure prophylaxis treatment had the best impact and effectiveness, with immense reductions in infection, disease, and death, driven by the robust control of infection transmission. Effectiveness of both pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis treatments was disproportionally larger when a larger segment of the population was targeted than a specific age group. Additional downstream potential effects of treatment, beyond the primary outcome, enhance the population-level impact of both treatments. COVID-19 treatments are an important modality in controlling SARS-CoV-2 disease burden. Different types of treatment act synergistically for a larger impact, for these treatments and vaccination.

We investigated what proportion of the population acquired severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and whether the herd immunity threshold has been reached in 10 communities in Qatar. The study included 4,970 participants during June 21–September 9, 2020. Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were detected by using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Seropositivity ranged from 54.9% (95% CI 50.2%–59.4%) to 83.8% (95% CI 79.1%–87.7%) across communities and showed a pooled mean of 66.1% (95% CI 61.5%–70.6%). A range of other epidemiologic measures indicated that active infection is rare, with limited if any sustainable infection transmission for clusters to occur. Only 5 infections were ever severe and 1 was critical in these young communities; infection severity rate of 0.2% (95% CI 0.1%–0.4%). Specific communities in Qatar have or nearly reached herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 infection: 65%–70% of the population has been infected.

Abstract The overarching objective of this study was to provide the descriptive epidemiology of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in Qatar by addressing specific research questions through a series of national epidemiologic studies. Sources of data were the centralized and standardized national databases for SARS-CoV-2 infection. By July 10, 2020, 397,577 individuals had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 using polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR), of whom 110,986 were positive, a positivity cumulative rate of 27.9% (95% CI 27.8–28.1%). As of July 5, case severity rate, based on World Health Organization (WHO) severity classification, was 3.4% and case fatality rate was 1.4 per 1,000 persons. Age was by far the strongest predictor of severe, critical, or fatal infection. PCR positivity of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs in a national community survey (May 6–7) including 1,307 participants was 14.9% (95% CI 11.5–19.0%); 58.5% of those testing positive were asymptomatic. Across 448 ad-hoc testing campaigns in workplaces and residential areas including 26,715 individuals, pooled mean PCR positivity was 15.6% (95% CI 13.7–17.7%). SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence was 24.0% (95% CI 23.3–24.6%) in 32,970 residual clinical blood specimens. Antibody prevalence was only 47.3% (95% CI 46.2–48.5%) in those who had at least one PCR positive result, but 91.3% (95% CI 89.5–92.9%) among those who were PCR positive > 3 weeks before serology testing. Qatar has experienced a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that is rapidly declining, apparently due to growing immunity levels in the population.

Complementing whole genome sequencing strategies with high-throughput multiplex RT-qPCR genotyping allows for more comprehensive and real-time tracking of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. During the second and third waves of COVID-19 in Qatar, PCR genotyping, combined with Sanger sequencing of un-typeable samples, was employed to describe the epidemiology of the Alpha, Beta and Delta variants. A total of 9792 nasopharyngeal PCR-positive samples collected between April-June 2021 were successfully genotyped, revealing the importation and transmission dynamics of these three variants in Qatar.

We investigated hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology in populations with liver‐related diseases (LRDs) in the Middle East and North Africa. The data source was standardized databases of HCV measures populated through systematic reviews. Random‐effects meta‐analyses and meta‐regressions were performed, and genotype diversity was assessed. Analyses were based on 252 HCV antibody prevalence measures, eight viremic rate measures, and 30 genotype measures on 132,358 subjects. Pooled mean prevalence in LRD populations was 58.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 51.5%‐66.0%) in Egypt and 55.8% (95% CI, 49.1%‐62.4%) in Pakistan; these values were higher than in other countries, which had a pooled prevalence of only 15.6% (95% CI, 12.4%‐19.0%). Mean prevalence was highest in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma at 56.9% (95% CI, 50.2%‐63.5%) and those with cirrhosis at 50.4% (95% CI, 40.8%‐60.0%). Type of LRD population and country were the strongest predictors of prevalence, explaining 48.6% of the variation. No evidence for prevalence decline was found, but there was strong evidence for prevalence increase in Pakistan. A strong, positive association was identified between prevalence in the general population and that in LRD populations; the Pearson correlation coefficient ranged between 0.605 and 0.862. The pooled mean viremic rate was 75.5% (95% CI, 61.0%‐87.6%). Genotype 4 was most common (44.2%), followed by genotype 3 (34.5%), genotype 1 (17.0%), genotype 2 (3.5%), genotype 6 (0.5%), and genotype 5 (0.3%). Conclusion: HCV appears to play a dominant role in liver diseases in Egypt and Pakistan and has a growing role in Pakistan. Testing and treatment of LRD populations are essential to reduce disease burden and transmission and to reach HCV elimination by 2030.

We developed a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk score to guide targeted RT-PCR testing in Qatar. The Qatar national COVID-19 testing database, encompassing a total of 2,688,232 RT-PCR tests conducted between February 5, 2020-January 27, 2021, was analyzed. Logistic regression analyses were implemented to derive the COVID-19 risk score, as a tool to identify those at highest risk of having the infection. Score cut-off was determined using the ROC curve based on maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity. The score’s performance diagnostics were assessed. Logistic regression analysis identified age, sex, and nationality as significant predictors of infection and were included in the risk score. The ROC curve was generated and the area under the curve was estimated at 0.63 (95% CI: 0.63–0.63). The score had a sensitivity of 59.4% (95% CI: 59.1%-59.7%), specificity of 61.1% (95% CI: 61.1%-61.2%), a positive predictive value of 10.9% (95% CI: 10.8%-10.9%), and a negative predictive value of 94.9% (94.9%-95.0%). The concept and utility of a COVID-19 risk score were demonstrated in Qatar. Such a public health tool can have considerable utility in optimizing testing and suppressing infection transmission, while maximizing efficiency and use of available resources.

This study investigated the performance of a rapid point-of-care antibody test, the BioMedomics COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test, in comparison with a high-quality, validated, laboratory-based platform, the Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay. Serological testing was conducted on 709 individuals. Concordance metrics were estimated. Logistic regression was used to assess associations with seropositivity. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 63.5% (450/709; 95% CI 59.8%-67.0%) using the BioMedomics assay and 71.9% (510/709; 95% CI 68.5%-75.2%) using the Elecsys assay. There were 60 discordant results between the two assays, all of which were seropositive in the Elecsys assay, but seronegative in the BioMedomics assay. Overall, positive, and negative percent agreements between the two assays were 91.5% (95% CI 89.2%-93.5%), 88.2% (95% CI 85.1%-90.9%), and 100% (95% CI 98.2%-100%), respectively, with a Cohen’s kappa of 0.81 (95% CI 0.78–0.84). Excluding specimens with lower (Elecsys) antibody titers, the agreement improved with overall, positive, and negative percent concordance of 94.4% (95% CI 92.3%-96.1%), 91.8% (95% CI 88.8%-94.3%), and 100% (95% CI 98.2%-100%), respectively, and a Cohen’s kappa of 0.88 (95% CI 0.85–0.90). Logistic regression confirmed better agreement with higher antibody titers. The BioMedomics COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test demonstrated good performance in measuring detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, supporting the utility of such rapid point-of-care serological testing to guide the public health responses and vaccine prioritization.

Limited data are available regarding antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains circulating in WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). We investigated the antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance of N. gonorrhoeae isolates to five antimicrobials (ceftriaxone, azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, tetracycline, and benzylpenicillin) currently or previously used for gonorrhoea treatment in Qatar, 2017–2020. Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs; mg/L) of antimicrobials were determined using Etest on gonococcal isolates collected during January 1, 2017-August 30, 2020 at Hamad Medical Corporation, a national public healthcare provider. During 2017–2020, resistance in isolates from urogenital sites of 433 patients was 64.7% (95% CI: 59.5–69.6%; range: 43.9–78.7%) for ciprofloxacin, 50.7% (95% CI: 45.3–56.1%; range: 41.3–70.4%) for tetracycline, and 30.8% (95% CI: 26.3–35.6%; range: 26.7–35.8%) for benzylpenicillin. Percentage of isolates non-susceptible to azithromycin was 4.1% (95% CI: 2.0–7.4%; range: 2.7–4.8%) and all (100%) isolates were susceptible to ceftriaxone. Two (1.6%) isolates from 2019 and one (2.2%) isolate from 2020 had high-level resistance to azithromycin (MIC≥256 mg/L). Overall, 1.0% (4/418) of isolates had a ceftriaxone MIC of 0.25 mg/L, which is at the ceftriaxone susceptibility breakpoint (MIC≤0.25 mg/L). Treatment with ceftriaxone 250 mg plus azithromycin 1 g can continuously be recommended for gonorrhoea therapy in Qatar. Continued quality-assured gonococcal AMR surveillance is warranted in EMR.

BackgroundThe epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 (or Alpha) variant is insufficiently understood. This study's objective was to describe the introduction and expansion of this variant in Qatar and to estimate the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection with this variant.Methods and findingsReinfections with the B.1.1.7 variant and variants of unknown status were investigated in a national cohort of 158,608 individuals with prior PCR-confirmed infections and a national cohort of 42,848 antibody-positive individuals. Infections with B.1.1.7 and variants of unknown status were also investigated in a national comparator cohort of 132,701 antibody-negative individuals. B.1.1.7 was first identified in Qatar on 25 December 2020. Sudden, large B.1.1.7 epidemic expansion was observed starting on 18 January 2021, triggering the onset of epidemic's second wave, 7 months after the first wave. B.1.1.7 was about 60% more infectious than the original (wild-type) circulating variants. Among persons with a prior PCR-confirmed infection, the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated to be 97.5% (95% CI: 95.7% to 98.6%) for B.1.1.7 and 92.2% (95% CI: 90.6% to 93.5%) for variants of unknown status. Among antibody-positive persons, the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated to be 97.0% (95% CI: 92.5% to 98.7%) for B.1.1.7 and 94.2% (95% CI: 91.8% to 96.0%) for variants of unknown status. A main limitation of this study is assessment of reinfections based on documented PCR-confirmed reinfections, but other reinfections could have occurred and gone undocumented.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that introduction of B.1.1.7 into a naïve population can create a major epidemic wave, but natural immunity in those previously infected was strongly associated with limited incidence of reinfection by B.1.1.7 or other variants.

We aimed to estimate, albeit crudely and provisionally, national, regional, and global proportions of respective populations that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year after the introduction of this virus into human circulation, and to assess infection morbidity and mortality rates, factoring both documented and undocumented infections. The estimates were generated by applying mathematical models to 159 countries and territories. The percentage of the world's population that has been infected as of 31 December 2020 was estimated at 12.56% (95% CI: 11.17–14.05%). It was lowest in the Western Pacific Region at 0.66% (95% CI: 0.59–0.75%) and highest in the Americas at 41.92% (95% CI: 37.95–46.09%). The global infection fatality rate was 10.73 (95% CI: 10.21–11.29) per 10,000 infections. Globally per 1000 infections, the infection acute-care bed hospitalization rate was 19.22 (95% CI: 18.73–19.51), the infection ICU bed hospitalization rate was 4.14 (95% CI: 4.10–4.18). If left unchecked with no vaccination and no other public health interventions, and assuming circulation of only wild-type variants and no variants of concern, the pandemic would eventually cause 8.18 million deaths (95% CI: 7.30–9.18), 163.67 million acute-care hospitalizations (95% CI: 148.12–179.51), and 33.01 million ICU hospitalizations (95% CI: 30.52–35.70), by the time the herd immunity threshold is reached at 60–70% infection exposure. The global population remained far below the herd immunity threshold by end of 2020. Global epidemiology reveals immense regional variation in infection exposure and morbidity and mortality rates.

Summary: The study objective was to the assess level of detectable severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in the urban population of Qatar. Antibody testing was performed on residual blood specimens for 112,941 individuals (∼10% of Qatar's urban population) attending for routine/other clinical care between May 12 and September 9, 2020. Seropositivity was 13.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 13.1–13.6%) and was independently associated with sex, age, nationality, clinical care encounter type, and testing date. Median optical density (antibody titer) among antibody-positive persons was 27.0 (range = 1.0–150.0), with higher values associated with age, nationality, clinical care encounter type, and testing date. Seropositivity by nationality was positively correlated with the likelihood of having higher antibody titers (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.47–0.96). Less than two in every 10 individuals in Qatar's urban population had detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, suggesting this population is still far from herd immunity and at risk of subsequent infection waves. Higher antibody titer appears to be a biomarker of repeated exposures to the infection.

Abstract Background HIV epidemiology among female sex workers (FSWs) and their clients in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is poorly understood. We addressed this gap through a comprehensive epidemiological assessment. Methods A systematic review of population size estimation and HIV prevalence studies was conducted and reported following PRISMA guidelines. Risk of bias (ROB) assessments were conducted for all included studies using various quality domains, as informed by Cochrane Collaboration guidelines. The pooled mean HIV prevalence was estimated using random-effects meta-analyses. Sources of heterogeneity and temporal trends were identified through meta-regressions. Results We identified 270 size estimation studies in FSWs and 42 in clients, and 485 HIV prevalence studies in 287,719 FSWs and 69 in 29,531 clients/proxy populations. Most studies had low ROB in multiple quality domains. The median proportion of reproductive-age women reporting current/recent sex work was 0.6% (range = 0.2–2.4%) and of men reporting currently/recently buying sex was 5.7% (range = 0.3–13.8%). HIV prevalence ranged from 0 to 70% in FSWs (median = 0.1%) and 0–34.6% in clients (median = 0.4%). The regional pooled mean HIV prevalence was 1.4% (95% CI = 1.1–1.8%) in FSWs and 0.4% (95% CI = 0.1–0.7%) in clients. Country-specific pooled prevalence was < 1% in most countries, 1–5% in North Africa and Somalia, 17.3% in South Sudan, and 17.9% in Djibouti. Meta-regressions identified strong subregional variations in prevalence. Compared to Eastern MENA, the adjusted odds ratios (AORs) ranged from 0.2 (95% CI = 0.1–0.4) in the Fertile Crescent to 45.4 (95% CI = 24.7–83.7) in the Horn of Africa. There was strong evidence for increasing prevalence post-2003; the odds increased by 15% per year (AOR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.09–1.21). There was also a large variability in sexual and injecting risk behaviors among FSWs within and across countries. Levels of HIV testing among FSWs were generally low. The median fraction of FSWs that tested for HIV in the past 12 months was 12.1% (range = 0.9–38.0%). Conclusions HIV epidemics among FSWs are emerging in MENA, and some have reached stable endemic levels, although still some countries have limited epidemic dynamics. The epidemic has been growing for over a decade, with strong regionalization and heterogeneity. HIV testing levels were far below the service coverage target of “UNAIDS 2016–2021 Strategy.”

Abstract Background Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) is a prevalent lifelong infection that appears to be undergoing an epidemiologic transition in the United States (US). Using an analytical approach, this study aimed to characterize HSV-1 transitioning epidemiology and estimate its epidemiologic indicators, past, present, and future. Methods An age-structured mathematical model was developed to describe HSV-1 transmission through oral and sexual modes of transmission. The model was fitted to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 1976–2016 data series. Results HSV-1 seroprevalence was projected to decline from 61.5% in 1970 to 54.8% in 2018, 48.5% in 2050, and 42.0% in 2100. In 30% for those aged 0–19 years, but 60. Meanwhile, the number of new infections per year (oral and genital) was persistent at 2,762,000 in 1970, 2,941,000 in 2018, 2,933,000 in 2050, and 2,960,000 in 2100. Of this total, genital acquisitions contributed 252,000 infections in 1970, 410,000 in 2018, 478,000 in 2050, and 440,000 in 2100—a quarter of which are symptomatic with clinical manifestations. For those aged 15–49 years, nearly 25% of incident infections are genital. Most genital acquisitions (> 85%) were due to oral-to-genital transmission through oral sex, as opposed to genital-to-genital transmission through sexual intercourse. Conclusion HSV-1 epidemiology is undergoing a remarkable transition in the US, with less exposure in childhood and more in adulthood, and less oral but more genital acquisition. HSV-1 will persist as a widely prevalent infection, with ever-increasing genital disease burden.

Background: Reinfection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been documented, raising public health concerns. SARS-CoV-2 reinfections were assessed in a cohort of antibody-positive persons in Qatar. Methods: All SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positive persons from April 16 to December 31, 2020 with a PCR-positive swab ≥14 days after the first-positive antibody test were investigated for evidence of reinfection. Viral genome sequencing was conducted for paired viral specimens to confirm reinfection. Incidence of reinfection was compared to incidence of infection in the complement cohort of those who were antibody-negative. Findings: Among 43,044 antibody-positive persons who were followed for a median of 16.3 weeks (range: 0–34.6), 314 individuals (0.7%) had at least one PCR positive swab ≥14 days after the first-positive antibody test. Of these individuals, 129 (41.1%) had supporting epidemiological evidence for reinfection. Reinfection was next investigated using viral genome sequencing. Applying the viral-genome-sequencing confirmation rate, the incidence rate of reinfection was estimated at 0.66 per 10,000 person-weeks (95% CI: 0.56–0.78). Incidence rate of reinfection versus month of follow-up did not show any evidence of waning of immunity for over seven months of follow-up. Meanwhile, in the complement cohort of 149,923 antibody-negative persons followed for a median of 17.0 weeks (range: 0–45.6), incidence rate of infection was estimated at 13.69 per 10,000 person-weeks (95% CI: 13.22–14.14). Efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated at 95.2% (95% CI: 94.1–96.0%). Reinfections were less severe than primary infections. Only one reinfection was severe, two were moderate, and none were critical or fatal. Most reinfections (66.7%) were diagnosed incidentally through random or routine testing, or through contact tracing. Interpretation: Reinfection is rare in the young and international population of Qatar. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy ~95% for at least seven months. Funding: Biomedical Research Program, the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core, and the Genomics Core, all at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, the Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, and the Qatar Genome Programme.

A novel coronavirus strain, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in China. This study aims to characterize key attributes of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology as the infection emerged in China. An age-stratified mathematical model was constructed to describe transmission dynamics and estimate age-specific differences in biological susceptibility to infection, age-assortativeness in transmission mixing, and transition in rate of infectious contacts (and reproduction number R0) following introduction of mass interventions. The model estimated the infectious contact rate in early epidemic at 0.59 contacts/day (95% uncertainty interval-UI = 0.48–0.71). Relative to those 60–69 years, susceptibility was 0.06 in those ≤19 years, 0.34 in 20–29 years, 0.57 in 30–39 years, 0.69 in 40–49 years, 0.79 in 50–59 years, 0.94 in 70–79 years, and 0.88 in ≥80 years. Assortativeness in transmission mixing by age was limited at 0.004 (95% UI = 0.002–0.008). R0 rapidly declined from 2.1 (95% UI = 1.8–2.4) to 0.06 (95% UI = 0.05–0.07) following interventions' onset. Age appears to be a principal factor in explaining the transmission patterns in China. The biological susceptibility to infection seems limited among children but high among those >50 years. There was no evidence for differential contact mixing by age.