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Supplementary data is available online at https://academic.oup.com/brain/advance-article/doi/10.1093/brain/awad105/7091433#supplementary-data . Accepted manuscripts are PDF versions of the author’s final manuscript, as accepted for publication by the journal but prior to copyediting or typesetting. They can be cited using the author(s), article title, journal title, year of online publication, and DOI. They will be replaced by the final typeset articles, which may therefore contain changes. The DOI will remain the same throughout. Copyright © The Author(s) 2023. The advent of clinical trials of disease-modifying agents for neurodegenerative disease highlights the need for evidence-based end point selection. Here we report the longitudinal PROSPECT-M-UK study of progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP), corticobasal syndrome (CBS), multiple system atrophy (MSA) and related disorders, to compare candidate clinical trial end points. In this multicentre UK study, participants were assessed with serial questionnaires, motor examination, neuropsychiatric and MRI assessments at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Participants were classified by diagnosis at baseline and study end, into Richardson syndrome, PSP-subcortical (PSP-parkinsonism and progressive gait freezing subtypes), PSP-cortical (PSP-frontal, PSP-speech and language and PSP-CBS subtypes), MSA-parkinsonism, MSA-cerebellar, CBS with and without evidence of Alzheimer’s disease pathology and indeterminate syndromes. We calculated annual rate of change, with linear mixed modelling and sample sizes for clinical trials of disease-modifying agents, according to group and assessment type. Two hundred forty-three people were recruited [117 PSP, 68 CBS, 42 MSA and 16 indeterminate; 138 (56.8%) male; age at recruitment 68.7 ± 8.61 years]. One hundred and fifty-nine completed the 6-month assessment (82 PSP, 27 CBS, 40 MSA and 10 indeterminate) and 153 completed the 12-month assessment (80 PSP, 29 CBS, 35 MSA and nine indeterminate). Questionnaire, motor examination, neuropsychiatric and neuroimaging measures declined in all groups, with differences in longitudinal change between groups. Neuroimaging metrics would enable lower sample sizes to achieve equivalent power for clinical trials than cognitive and functional measures, often achieving N < 100 required for 1-year two-arm trials (with 80% power to detect 50% slowing). However, optimal outcome measures were disease-specific. In conclusion, phenotypic variance within PSP, CBS and MSA is a major challenge to clinical trial design. Our findings provide an evidence base for selection of clinical trial end points, from potential functional, cognitive, clinical or neuroimaging measures of disease progression. The Progressive Supranuclear Palsy–Corticobasal Syndrome–Multiple System Atrophy (PROSPECT-M-UK) study is supported by grants for PROSPECT, cerebrospinal fluid biomarker measurements, and PROSPECT magnetic resonance imaging and Sara Koe Fellowship grants from the PSP Association UK, CBD Solutions, the MSA Trust, the Wellcome Trust (103838; 220258); the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre and Cambridge Brain Bank (BRC 1215-20014; NIHR203312: The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care); Cambridge Centre for Parkinson-Plus; Medical Research Council (SUAG/092 116768); and the NIHR UCLH Biomedical Research Centre. Queen Square Brain Bank is supported by the Reta Lila Weston Institute for Neurological Studies and the MRC. The fluid biomarker measurements were supported in part by the UK Dementia Research Institute at UCL and a multiuser equipment grant from Wellcome Trust. The Cambridge Brain Bank is part of the Cambridge Human research Tissue Bank funded by the Biomedical Research Council. The Oxford Brain Bank is supported by the MRC, Brains for Dementia Research (Alzheimer’s Society and Alzheimer’s Research UK), and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. In addition, this study was supported by the Medical Research Council (MRC 548211) (Dr Jabbari); the Association of British Neurologists Clinical Research Training Fellowships (Dr Holland, Dr Goh and Dr Chelban); the MSA Trust (Dr Chelban, Dr Goh); Guarantors of Brain (Dr Chelban); CBD Solutions (Dr Revesz, and Dr Morris); the NIHR Oxford Health Clinical Research Facility (Dr Klein); the NIHR Queen Square Biomedical Research Centre based at UCLH (Dr Revesz and Dr Jaunmuktane) a Wallenberg Academy fellowship (Dr Zetterberg); the Monument Trust Discovery Award from Parkinson’s UK (Dr Hu). Dr Bocchetta is supported by a Fellowship award from the Alzheimer’s Society, UK (AS-JF-19a-004-517). Dr Bocchetta’s work was also supported by the UK Dementia Research Institute which receives its funding from DRI Ltd, funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Alzheimer’s Society and Alzheimer’s Research UK. Professor Rohrer is supported by the Miriam Marks Brain Research UK Senior Fellowship and has received funding from an MRC Clinician Scientist Fellowship (MR/M008525/1) and the NIHR Rare Disease Translational Research Collaboration (BRC149/NS/MH). Professor Zetterberg is a Wallenberg Scholar supported by grants from the Swedish Research Council (#2018-02532), the European Research Council (#681712), Swedish State Support for Clinical Research (#ALFGBG-720931), the Alzheimer Drug Discovery Foundation (ADDF), USA (#201809-2016862), the AD Strategic Fund and the Alzheimer's Association (#ADSF-21-831376-C, #ADSF-21-831381-C and #ADSF-21-831377-C), the Olav Thon Foundation, the Erling-Persson Family Foundation, Stiftelsen för Gamla Tjänarinnor, Hjärnfonden, Sweden (#FO2019-0228), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 860197 (MIRIADE), European Union Joint Program for Neurodegenerative Disorders (JPND2021-00694), and the UK Dementia Research Institute at UCL. Professor Roncaroli’s work is supported by The Manchester Brain Bank, which is part of BDR, jointly funded by Alzheimer’s Society and Alzheimer’s Research UK. For the purpose of open access, the authors have applied a CC BY public copyright licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission, under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

BACKGROUND: Patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) have variable rates of progression. More accurate prediction of progression could improve selection for clinical trials. Although some variance in clinical progression can be predicted by age at onset and phenotype, we hypothesise that this can be further improved by blood biomarkers. OBJECTIVE: To determine if blood biomarkers (serum neurofilament light (NfL) and genetic status (glucocerebrosidase, GBA and apolipoprotein E (APOE))) are useful in addition to clinical measures for prognostic modelling in PD. METHODS: We evaluated the relationship between serum NfL and baseline and longitudinal clinical measures as well as patients' genetic (GBA and APOE) status. We classified patients as having a favourable or an unfavourable outcome based on a previously validated model, and explored how blood biomarkers compared with clinical variables in distinguishing prognostic phenotypes . RESULTS: 291 patients were assessed in this study. Baseline serum NfL was associated with baseline cognitive status. Nfl predicted a shorter time to dementia, postural instability and death (dementia-HR 2.64; postural instability-HR 1.32; mortality-HR 1.89) whereas APOEe4 status was associated with progression to dementia (dementia-HR 3.12, 95% CI 1.63 to 6.00). NfL levels and genetic variables predicted unfavourable progression to a similar extent as clinical predictors. The combination of clinical, NfL and genetic data produced a stronger prediction of unfavourable outcomes compared with age and gender (area under the curve: 0.74-age/gender vs 0.84-ALL p=0.0103). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical trials of disease-modifying therapies might usefully stratify patients using clinical, genetic and NfL status at the time of recruitment.

No abstract available.

Funder: Bluefield Project, Funder: Fidelity Foundation; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005639, Funder: European Reference Network for Rare Neurological Diseases, Funder: Wellcome Trust; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010269, Funder: EU Joint Programme - Neurodegenerative Disease Research, OBJECTIVE: A GGGGCC repeat expansion in the C9orf72 gene is the most common cause of genetic frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). As potential therapies targeting the repeat expansion are now entering clinical trials, sensitive biomarker assays of target engagement are urgently required. Our objective was to develop such an assay. METHODS: We used the single molecule array (Simoa) platform to develop an immunoassay for measuring poly(GP) dipeptide repeat proteins (DPRs) generated by the C9orf72 repeat expansion in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of people with C9orf72-associated FTD/ALS. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We show the assay to be highly sensitive and robust, passing extensive qualification criteria including low intraplate and interplate variability, a high precision and accuracy in measuring both calibrators and samples, dilutional parallelism, tolerance to sample and standard freeze-thaw and no haemoglobin interference. We used this assay to measure poly(GP) in CSF samples collected through the Genetic FTD Initiative (N=40 C9orf72 and 15 controls). We found it had 100% specificity and 100% sensitivity and a large window for detecting target engagement, as the C9orf72 CSF sample with the lowest poly(GP) signal had eightfold higher signal than controls and on average values from C9orf72 samples were 38-fold higher than controls, which all fell below the lower limit of quantification of the assay. These data indicate that a Simoa-based poly(GP) DPR assay is suitable for use in clinical trials to determine target engagement of therapeutics aimed at reducing C9orf72 repeat-containing transcripts.

© Author(s) (or their employer(s)). No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ., Background: There are few validated fluid biomarkers in frontotemporal dementia (FTD). Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) is a measure of astrogliosis, a known pathological process of FTD, but has yet to be explored as potential biomarker. Methods: Plasma GFAP and neurofilament light chain (NfL) concentration were measured in 469 individuals enrolled in the Genetic FTD Initiative: 114 C9orf72 expansion carriers (74 presymptomatic, 40 symptomatic), 119 GRN mutation carriers (88 presymptomatic, 31 symptomatic), 53 MAPT mutation carriers (34 presymptomatic, 19 symptomatic) and 183 non-carrier controls. Biomarker measures were compared between groups using linear regression models adjusted for age and sex with family membership included as random effect. Participants underwent standardised clinical assessments including the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Frontotemporal Lobar Degeneration-Clinical Dementia Rating scale and MRI. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to investigate the relationship of plasma GFAP to clinical and imaging measures. Results: Plasma GFAP concentration was significantly increased in symptomatic GRN mutation carriers (adjusted mean difference from controls 192.3 pg/mL, 95% CI 126.5 to 445.6), but not in those with C9orf72 expansions (9.0, -61.3 to 54.6), MAPT mutations (12.7, -33.3 to 90.4) or the presymptomatic groups. GFAP concentration was significantly positively correlated with age in both controls and the majority of the disease groups, as well as with NfL concentration. In the presymptomatic period, higher GFAP concentrations were correlated with a lower cognitive score (MMSE) and lower brain volume, while in the symptomatic period, higher concentrations were associated with faster rates of atrophy in the temporal lobe. Conclusions: Raised GFAP concentrations appear to be unique to GRN-related FTD, with levels potentially increasing just prior to symptom onset, suggesting that GFAP may be an important marker of proximity to onset, and helpful for forthcoming therapeutic prevention trials., The GENFI study has been supported by the Medical Research Council UK (MR/M023664/1), the Italian Ministry of Health and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research as part of a Centres of Excellence in Neurodegeneration grant, as well as other individual funding to investigators. This work was supported by the NIHR Queen Square Dementia Biomedical Research Unit, the NIHR UCL/H Biomedical Research Centre and the Leonard Wolfson Experimental Neurology Centre (LWENC) Clinical Research Facility, Alzheimer’s Research UK, the Brain Research Trust and the Wolfson Foundation as well as an Alzheimer's Society grant (AS-PG-16-007). The biomarker measurements were funded in part by the UK Dementia Research Institute at UCL and by a Wellcome Trust Multi-User Equipment Grant. KM has received funding from an Alzheimer’s Society PhD studentship. IOCW is supported by a MRC Clinical Research Training Fellowship (MR/M018288/1). RS-V is supported by an Alzheimer's Research UK Clinical Research Training Fellowship (ARUK-CRF2017B-2). JCVS was supported by the Dioraphte Foundation grant 09-02-03-00, the Association for Frontemporal Dementias Research Grant 2009, The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) grant HCMI 056-13-018, ZonMw Memorabel (Deltaplan Dementie, project number 733 051 042), Alzheimer Nederland and the Bluefield project. CG received funding from JPND-Prefrontals VR Dnr 529-2014-7504, VR 2015-02926 and 2018-02754, the Swedish FTD Initiative-Schörling Foundation, Alzheimer Foundation, Brain Foundation and Stockholm County Council ALF. DG received support from the EU Joint Programme—Neurodegenerative Disease Research (JPND) and the Italian Ministry of Health (PreFrontALS) grant 733051042. RS-V has received funding from Fundació Marató de TV3, Spain (grant no. 20143810). FM received funding from the Tau Consortium and the Center for Networked Biomedical Research on Neurodegenerative Disease (CIBERNED). JBR has received funding from the Wellcome Trust (103838) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. MO has received funding from BMBF (FTLDc). MM has received funding from a Canadian Institutes of Health Research operating grant and the Weston Brain Institute and Ontario Brain Institute. RV has received funding from the Mady Browaeys Fund for Research into Frontotemporal Dementia. EF has received funding from a CIHR grant #327387. HZ is a Wallenberg Academy Fellow. JR is a MRC Clinician Scientist (MR/M008525/1) and has received funding from the NIHR Rare Diseases Translational Research Collaboration (BRC149/NS/MH), the Bluefield Project and the Association for Frontotemporal Degeneration.