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Jennifer A Davidson,1 Amitava Banerjee,2 Helen Strongman,1 Emily Herrett,1 Liam Smeeth,1 Judith Breuer,3 Charlotte Warren-Gash1 1Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; 2Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK; 3Department of Infection, Immunity and Inflammation, UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, University College London, London, UKCorrespondence: Charlotte Warren-Gash, Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK, Tel +44 20 7927 2796, Email charlotte.warren-gash1@lshtm.ac.ukPurpose: To assess the risk of incident cardiovascular outcomes after COVID-19 by level of cardiovascular risk in waves one and two of the pandemic in England in 2020.Patients and methods: We conducted a self-controlled case-series study among adults aged 40– 84 years with no pre-existing cardiovascular disease using linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We generated season-adjusted incidence ratios (IRs) for first acute cardiovascular event after SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with baseline time before and > 91 days after infection. We used composite and individual acute cardiovascular event outcomes including myocardial infarction, major ventricular arrhythmia, left ventricular heart failure, and ischemic stroke. We stratified by cardiovascular risk, using diagnosed hypertension and QRISK3 predicted risk, and by wave one and two of the pandemic.Results: We included 1762 individuals, 76.6% had a QRISK3 score ≥ 10% and 59.4% had hypertension. The risk of any cardiovascular event was elevated in the 1– 7 days after infection (IR 7.14 [95% CI 6.06– 8.41]) and, while the effect size tapered, the risk remained for 15– 28 days after infection (1.74 [1.33– 2.26]). Risks were similar for individual event type, differing by level of cardiovascular risk, and in wave one and two of the pandemic. &#x2003Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with early elevations in the risk of first acute cardiovascular event, across cardiovascular risk levels and in both wave one and two of the pandemic. Prevention of COVID-19 is important to avert cardiovascular complications.Graphical Abstract: Keywords: acute coronary syndrome, COVID-19, electronic health records, epidemiology, heart failure

Jasbir Dhaliwal,1– 6 Meltem Tuna,1 Baiju R Shah,1,7,8 Sanjay Murthy,1,9,10 Emily Herrett,4 Anne M Griffiths,2,3 Eric I Benchimol1– 3,8 1ICES, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2SickKids Inflammatory Bowel Disease Centre, Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada; 3Department of Paediatrics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; 5Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center, Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Cincinnati, OH, USA; 6Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, USA; 7Sunnybrook Research Institute, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada; 8Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 9The Ottawa Hospital IBD Centre, The Ottawa Hospital and Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, ON, Canada; 10Department of Medicine and School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, CanadaCorrespondence: Jasbir DhaliwalPediatrics, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center, Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Secondary Appointments in Division of Biomedical Informatics and James M Anderson Center for Health Systems Excellence, 3333 Burnet Avenue, Cincinnati, OH, 45229, USATel +15133789468Email Jasbir.dhaliwal@cchmc.orgBackground: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is now a global disease with incidence increasing throughout Asia.Aim: To determine the incidence of IBD among South Asians and Chinese people residing in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province.Methods: All incident cases of IBD in children (1994– 2015) and adults (1999– 2015) were identified from population-based health administrative data. We classified South Asian and Chinese ethnicity using immigration records and surnames. We determined standardized incidence of IBD and adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) in South Asians and Chinese compared to the general population.Results: Among 16,230,638 people living in Ontario, standardized incidence of IBD per 100,000 person-years was 24.7 (95% CI 24.4– 25.0), compared with 14.6 (95% CI 13.7– 15.5) in 982,472 South Asians and with 5.4 (95% CI 4.8– 5.9) in 764,397 Chinese. The risk of IBD in South Asians was comparable to the general population after adjusting for immigrant status and confounders (aIRR 1.03, 95% CI 0.96– 1.10). South Asians had a lower risk of Crohn’s disease (CD) (aIRR 0.66, 95% CI 0.60– 0.77), but a higher risk of ulcerative colitis (UC) (aIRR 1.47, 95% CI 1.34– 1.61). Chinese people had much lower rates of IBD (aIRR 0.24, 95% CI 0.20– 0.28), CD (aIRR 0.21, 95% CI 0.17– 0.26), and UC (aIRR 0.28, 95% CI 0.23– 0.25).Conclusion: Canadians of South Asian ethnicity had a similarly high risk of developing IBD compared to other Canadians, and a higher risk of developing UC, a finding distinct from the Chinese population. Our findings indicate the importance of genetic and environmental risk factors in people of Asian origin who live in the Western world.Keywords: inflammatory bowel disease, ulcerative colitis, Crohn’s disease, incidence, ethnicity, epidemiology, South Asian, Chinese

Ann D Morgan,1 Emily Herrett,2 Bianca L De Stavola,2 Liam Smeeth,2 Jennifer K Quint1,2 1Department of Respiratory Epidemiology, Occupational Medicine and Public Health, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK; 2Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK Background: It is generally accepted that people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of vascular disease, including venous thromboembolism (VTE). While it is plausible that the risk of arterial and venous thrombotic events is greater still in certain subgroups of patients with COPD, such as those with more severe airflow limitation or more frequent exacerbations, these associations, in particular those between venous events and COPD severity or exacerbation frequency, remain largely untested in large population cohorts.Methods: A total of 3,594 patients with COPD with a first VTE event recorded during January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013, were identified from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink dataset and matched on age, sex, and general practitioner practice (1:3) to patients with COPD with no history of VTE (n=10,782). COPD severity was staged by degree of airflow limitation (ie, GOLD stage) and by COPD medication history. Frequent exacerbators were defined as patients with COPD with ≥2 exacerbations in the 12-month period prior to their VTE event (for cases) or their selection as a control (for controls). Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the association between disease severity or exacerbation frequency and VTE.Results: After additional adjustment for nonmatching confounders, including body mass index, smoking, and heart-related comorbidities, there was evidence for an association between increased disease severity and VTE when severity was measured either in terms of lung function impairment (odds ratio [OR]moderate:mild =1.16; 95% confidence intervals [CIs] =1.03, 1.32) or medication usage (ORsevere:mild/moderate =1.17; 95% CIs =1.06, 1.26). However, there was no evidence to suggest that frequent exacerbators were at greater risk of VTE compared with infrequent exacerbators (OR =1.06; 95% CIs =0.97, 1.15).Conclusion: COPD severity defined by airflow limitation or medication usage, but not exacerbation frequency, appears to be associated with VTE events in people with COPD. This finding highlights the disconnect between disease activity and severity in COPD. Keywords: COPD, venous thromboembolism, Clinical Practice Research Datalink, frequent exacerbators

Claire Windsor,1 Emily Herrett,1 Liam Smeeth,1 Jennifer Kathleen Quint1,2 1Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; 2Department of Respiratory Epidemiology, Occupational Medicine and Public Health, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have a higher risk of stroke than the general population. Chronic inflammation associated with COPD is thought to contribute to this risk. Exacerbations of COPD are associated with a rise in inflammation, suggesting that there may be an association between exacerbation frequency and the risk of stroke. This study examined that association.Methods: Using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, COPD patients with a first stroke between January 2004 and December 2013 were identified as cases and matched on age, sex, and general practice to controls with COPD but without a stroke (6,441 cases and 19,323 controls). Frequent exacerbators (FEs) were defined as COPD patients with ≥2 exacerbations, and infrequent exacerbators (IEs) have ≤1 exacerbation in the year prior to their stroke. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the association between exacerbation frequency and stroke overall, and by stroke subtype (hemorrhagic, ischemic, or transient ischemic attack). Exacerbations were also categorized into 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 exacerbations in the year prior to stroke.Results: There was no evidence that FE had an increased odds of stroke compared to IE (OR [odds ratio] =0.95, 95% CI [confidence interval] =0.89–1.01). There was strong evidence that the risk of stroke decreased with each exacerbation of COPD experienced per year (Ptrend =0.003). In the subgroup analysis investigating stroke subtype, FE had 33% lower odds of hemorrhagic stroke than IE (OR =0.67, 95% CI =0.51–0.88, P=0.003). No association was found within other stroke types.Conclusion: This study found no evidence of a difference in the odds of stroke between IE and FE, suggesting that exacerbation frequency is unlikely to be the reason for increased stroke risk among COPD patients. Further research is needed to explore the association through investigation of stroke risk and the severity, duration, treatment of exacerbations, and concurrent treatment of cardiovascular risk factors. Keywords: COPD exacerbations, stroke, frequent exacerbators, infrequent exacerbators

Background Patients with COPD are at increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI) compared to the general population and have shorter survival after any MI. We investigated whether this held true in patients with an "unanticipated" MI, defined as an MI occurring as the first manifestation of atherosclerotic disease and without any traditional cardiovascular risk factors and without any prior chest pain. Methods All patients experiencing their first MI between 1st January 2003 and 31st December 2008 as recorded in Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP), who had no previous evidence of MI in their General Practice Research Database (GPRD) or MINAP record were included. Patients under 18 years of age, not registered with GPRD at the time of MI, or with <1 year of standard follow-up before their MI were excluded. Data were provided by the "Cardiovascular Disease Research Linking Bespoke Cohorts and Electronic Records" (CALIBER) group at UCL. The primary exposure of interest was diagnosis of COPD (defined in GPRD) and the outcome death after MI. Survival analysis was done using Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox proportional hazards models were used to adjust for potential confounders (age and sex). Results 8065 individuals were included, 968 (12%) of whom had a physician diagnosis of COPD made either before the first MI or during the follow-up period. 87 patients died on the day of admission 10 (11.5%) of whom had COPD. The overall mortality rate was 160.2 deaths (95%CI 145.5 to 176.5) per 1000 person years in those with COPD compared to 99.4 deaths (95.2 to 103.9) per 1000 person years in those without COPD. After adjusting for confounding by sex and stratifying for age, survival was shorter after 1st MI in patients with COPD; HR 1.37 (1.23 to 1.52, p<0.001) in those with COPD compared to those without COPD (Abstract S96 figure 1). Survival was shorter in those (n=96) who exacerbated within 6 months of their 1st MI; HR 1.72 (1.13 to 2.60, p=0.01). Conclusions Survival is shorter after an "unanticipated" MI in patients with COPD and patients who exacerbate within 6 months of their MI have an even higher mortality rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a study to determine whetherß blockers are associated with decreased mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) having a first myocardial infarction. Patients with COPD with a first myocardial infarction from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2008 was recorded. It indicates thatßblockers initiated upon admission for myocardial infarction were associated with substantial survival benefits.

Background: Biological evidence suggests ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-a common treatment of cholestatic liver disease-may prevent severe COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to compare the hazard of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death between UDCA users versus non-users in a population with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) or primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC)., Methods: With the approval of NHS England, we conducted a population-based cohort study using primary care records between 1 March 2020 and 31 December 2022, linked to death registration data and hospital records through the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between time-varying UDCA exposure and COVID-19 related hospitalisation or death, stratified by geographical region and considering models unadjusted and fully adjusted for pre-specified confounders., Results: We identify 11,305 eligible individuals, 640 were hospitalised or died with COVID-19 during follow-up, 400 (63%) events among UDCA users. After confounder adjustment, UDCA is associated with a 21% relative reduction in the hazard of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67-0.93), consistent with an absolute risk reduction of 1.35% (95% CI 1.07%-1.69%)., Conclusions: We found evidence that UDCA is associated with a lower hazard of COVID-19 related hospitalisation and death, support calls for clinical trials investigating UDCA as a preventative measure for severe COVID-19 outcomes., Competing Interests: Competing interests B.G. has received research funding from the Bennett Foundation, the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, the NHS National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), the NIHR School of Primary Care Research, NHS England, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, the Mohn–Westlake Foundation, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration Oxford and Thames Valley, the Wellcome Trust, the Good Thinking Foundation, Health Data Research UK, the Health Foundation, the World Health Organisation, UKRI MRC, Asthma UK, the British Lung Foundation, and the Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing strand of the National Core Studies programme; he is a Non-Executive Director at NHS Digital; he also receives personal income from speaking and writing for lay audiences on the misuse of science. BMK is also employed by NHS England working on medicines policy and clinical lead for primary care medicines data. A.M. is a member of RCGP health informatics group and the NHS Digital GP data Professional Advisory Group, and received consulting fee from Induction Healthcare. L.A.T. has received research funding from MRC, Wellcome, NIHR and GSK, consulted for Bayer in relation to an observational study of chronic kidney disease (unpaid), and is a member of 4 non-industry funded (NIHR/MRC) trial advisory committees (unpaid) and MHRA Expert advisory group (Women’s Health). R.E.C. has shares in AstraZeneca. V.M. received a grant from NIHR. A.S. is employed by LSHTM on a fellowship sponsored by GSK. J.T. received an AstraZeneca grant for unrelated COVID-19 research. G.F.M. and R.S. have received research funding from Intercept Pharmaceuticals and Advanz Pharma. All other authors declare no conflicts of interest., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Long COVID potentially increases healthcare utilisation and costs. However, its impact on the NHS remains to be determined., Methods: This study aims to assess the healthcare utilisation of individuals with long COVID. With the approval of NHS England, we conducted a matched cohort study using primary and secondary care data via OpenSAFELY, a platform for analysing anonymous electronic health records. The long COVID exposure group, defined by diagnostic codes, was matched with five comparators without long COVID between Nov 2020 and Jan 2023. We compared their total healthcare utilisation from GP consultations, prescriptions, hospital admissions, A&E visits, and outpatient appointments. Healthcare utilisation and costs were evaluated using a two-part model adjusting for covariates. Using a difference-in-difference model, we also compared healthcare utilisation after long COVID with pre-pandemic records., Results: We identified 52,988 individuals with a long COVID diagnosis, matched to 264,867 comparators without a diagnosis. In the 12 months post-diagnosis, there was strong evidence that those with long COVID were more likely to use healthcare resources (OR: 8.29, 95% CI: 7.74-8.87), and have 49% more healthcare utilisation (RR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.48-1.51). Our model estimated that the long COVID group had 30 healthcare visits per year (predicted mean: 29.23, 95% CI: 28.58-29.92), compared to 16 in the comparator group (predicted mean visits: 16.04, 95% CI: 15.73-16.36). Individuals with long COVID were more likely to have non-zero healthcare expenditures (OR = 7.66, 95% CI = 7.20-8.15), with costs being 44% higher than the comparator group (cost ratio = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.39-1.50). The long COVID group costs approximately £2500 per person per year (predicted mean cost: £2562.50, 95% CI: £2335.60-£2819.22), and the comparator group costs £1500 (predicted mean cost: £1527.43, 95% CI: £1404.33-1664.45). Historically, individuals with long COVID utilised healthcare resources more frequently, but their average healthcare utilisation increased more after being diagnosed with long COVID, compared to the comparator group., Conclusions: Long COVID increases healthcare utilisation and costs. Public health policies should allocate more resources towards preventing, treating, and supporting individuals with long COVID., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has one of the highest prevalences of hypertension worldwide. The impact of hypertension is of particular concern in rural SSA, where access to clinics and hospitals is limited. Improvements in the management of people with hypertension in rural SSA could be achieved by sharing diagnosis and care tasks between the clinic and the community. To develop such a community-centred programme we need optimal approaches to identify and risk stratify patients with elevated blood pressure. The aim of the study is to improve the evidence base for diagnosis and risk estimation for a community-centred hypertension programme in two rural settings in SSA., Methods: We will conduct a cross-sectional study of 1250 adult participants in Kilifi, Kenya and Kiang West, The Gambia. The study has five objectives which will determine the: (1) accuracy of three blood pressure (BP) measurement methods performed by community health workers in identifying people with hypertension in rural SSA, compared to the reference standard method; (2) relationship between systolic BP and cardiovascular risk factors; (3) prevalence of hypertension-mediated organ damage (HMOD); (4) accuracy of innovative point-of-care (POC) technologies to identify patients with HMOD; and (5) cost-effectiveness of different combinations of BP and HMOD measurements for directing hypertension treatment initiation., Expected Findings: This study will determine the accuracy of three methods for community BP measurement and POC technologies for HMOD assessment. Using the optimal methods in this setting it will estimate the prevalence of hypertension and provide the best estimate to date of HMOD prevalence in SSA populations. The cost-effectiveness of decision-making approaches for initiating treatment of hypertension will be modelled. These results will inform the development of a community-centred programme to improve care for hypertensive patients living in rural SSA. Existing community engagement networks will be used to disseminated within the research setting., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2024 Perkins AD et al.)

Background: Long COVID is a major problem affecting patient health, the health service, and the workforce. To optimise the design of future interventions against COVID-19, and to better plan and allocate health resources, it is critical to quantify the health and economic burden of this novel condition. We aimed to evaluate and estimate the differences in health impacts of long COVID across sociodemographic categories and quantify this in Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs), widely used measures across health systems., Methods: With the approval of NHS England, we utilised OpenPROMPT, a UK cohort study measuring the impact of long COVID on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL). OpenPROMPT invited responses to Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) using a smartphone application and recruited between November 2022 and October 2023. We used the validated EuroQol EQ-5D questionnaire with the UK Value Set to develop disutility scores (1-utility) for respondents with and without Long COVID using linear mixed models, and we calculated subsequent Quality-Adjusted Life-Months (QALMs) for long COVID., Findings: The total OpenPROMPT cohort consisted of 7575 individuals who consented to data collection, with which we used data from 6070 participants who completed a baseline research questionnaire where 24.6% self-reported long COVID. In multivariable regressions, long COVID had a consistent impact on HRQoL, showing a higher likelihood or odds of reporting loss in quality-of-life (Odds Ratio (OR): 4.7, 95% CI: 3.72-5.93) compared with people who did not report long COVID. Reporting a disability was the largest predictor of losses of HRQoL (OR: 17.7, 95% CI: 10.37-30.33) across survey responses. Self-reported long COVID was associated with an 0.37 QALM loss., Interpretation: We found substantial impacts on quality-of-life due to long COVID, representing a major burden on patients and the health service. We highlight the need for continued support and research for long COVID, as HRQoL scores compared unfavourably to patients with conditions such as multiple sclerosis, heart failure, and renal disease., Funding: This research was supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) (OpenPROMPT: COV-LT2-0073)., Competing Interests: BG has received funding via the University of Oxford from a wide range of public and charitable funders: the NHS National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), NHS England, the NIHR School of Primary Care Research, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, the Peter Bennett Foundation, the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, the Mohn-Westlake Foundation, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration Oxford and Thames Valley, UKRI/MRC, the Wellcome Trust, the Good Thinking Foundation, Health Data Research UK, the Health Foundation, and the World Health Organisation; he also receives personal income from speaking and writing for lay audiences on the misuse of science. He led the Goldacre Review (“Better, broader, safer: using health data for research and analysis” March 2022) for Secretary Of State for Health and Social Care; I chaired the HealthTech Advisory Board for Sec of State; I was a Non-Executive Director at NHS Digital; I am on the UKHSA Data Science Advisory Board; I have sat on various other local and national committees in the public sector. BMK is also employed by NHS England working on medicines policy and clinical lead for primary care medicines data. AM is a senior clinical researcher at the University of Oxford in the Bennett Institute, which is funded by contracts and grants obtained from the Bennett Foundation, Wellcome Trust, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration Oxford and Thames Valley, Mohn-Westlake Foundation, and NHS England, and has consulted for health care vendors, the last time in 2022; the companies consulted in the last 3 years have no relationship to OpenSAFELY; he has represented the RCGP in the health informatics group and the Profession Advisory Group that advises on access to GP Data for Pandemic Planning and Research (GDPPR); the latter was a paid role; and he is a former employee and interim Chief Medical Officer of NHS Digital. REC holds shares in AstraZeneca. AB has received consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Roche, Takeda, Daiichi-Sankyo, Eisai, Novartis, Idorsia and Rhythmn. LAT has received grants or contracts from MRC, Wellcome, NIHR and GSK for an epidemiological study of kidney disease (no personal payment received) and has consulted for Bayer in relation to an observational study of chronic kidney disease (no personal payment received); she has received support for attending the MHRA Expert advisory group on Women's health and is an unpaid member of 4 non-industry funded NIHR/MRC trial advisory committees. JP has acted as an expert witness for the GMC with all fees paid to the company, and is an employee of TPP who provide the SystmOne software. MJ received support from NIHR for the funding of this manuscript and has received research grants from BMGF, Gavi, RCUK, WHO, Wellcome Trust, European Commission, InnoHK, TFGH and CDC. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: People who live alone experience greater levels of mental illness; however, it is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic had a disproportionately negative impact on this demographic., Objective: To describe the mental health gap between those who live alone and with others in the UK prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic., Methods: Self-reported psychological distress and life satisfaction in 10 prospective longitudinal population surveys (LPSs) assessed in the nearest pre-pandemic sweep and three periods during the pandemic. Recorded diagnosis of common and severe mental illnesses between March 2018 and January 2022 in electronic healthcare records (EHRs) within the OpenSAFELY-TPP., Findings: In 37 544 LPS participants, pooled models showed greater psychological distress (standardised mean difference (SMD): 0.09 (95% CI: 0.04; 0.14); relative risk: 1.25 (95% CI: 1.12; 1.39)) and lower life satisfaction (SMD: -0.22 (95% CI: -0.30; -0.15)) for those living alone pre-pandemic. This gap did not change during the pandemic. In the EHR analysis of c.16 million records, mental health conditions were more common in those who lived alone (eg, depression 26 (95% CI: 18 to 33) and severe mental illness 58 (95% CI: 54 to 62) more cases more per 100 000). For common mental health disorders, the gap in recorded cases in EHRs narrowed during the pandemic., Conclusions: People living alone have poorer mental health and lower life satisfaction. During the pandemic, this gap in self-reported distress remained; however, there was a narrowing of the gap in service use., Clinical Implications: Greater mental health need and potentially greater barriers to mental healthcare access for those who live alone need to be considered in healthcare planning., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare and may have impacted ethnic inequalities in healthcare. We aimed to describe the impact of pandemic-related disruption on ethnic differences in clinical monitoring and hospital admissions for non-COVID conditions in England., Methods: In this population-based, observational cohort study we used primary care electronic health record data with linkage to hospital episode statistics data and mortality data within OpenSAFELY, a data analytics platform created, with approval of NHS England, to address urgent COVID-19 research questions. We included adults aged 18 years and over registered with a TPP practice between March 1, 2018, and April 30, 2022. We excluded those with missing age, sex, geographic region, or Index of Multiple Deprivation. We grouped ethnicity (exposure), into five categories: White, Asian, Black, Other, and Mixed. We used interrupted time-series regression to estimate ethnic differences in clinical monitoring frequency (blood pressure and Hba1c measurements, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma annual reviews) before and after March 23, 2020. We used multivariable Cox regression to quantify ethnic differences in hospitalisations related to diabetes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and mental health before and after March 23, 2020., Findings: Of 33,510,937 registered with a GP as of 1st January 2020, 19,064,019 were adults, alive and registered for at least 3 months, 3,010,751 met the exclusion criteria and 1,122,912 were missing ethnicity. This resulted in 14,930,356 adults with known ethnicity (92% of sample): 86.6% were White, 7.3% Asian, 2.6% Black, 1.4% Mixed ethnicity, and 2.2% Other ethnicities. Clinical monitoring did not return to pre-pandemic levels for any ethnic group. Ethnic differences were apparent pre-pandemic, except for diabetes monitoring, and remained unchanged, except for blood pressure monitoring in those with mental health conditions where differences narrowed during the pandemic. For those of Black ethnicity, there were seven additional admissions for diabetic ketoacidosis per month during the pandemic, and relative ethnic differences narrowed during the pandemic compared to the White ethnic group (Pre-pandemic hazard ratio (HR): 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41, 0.60, Pandemic HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.87). There was increased admissions for heart failure during the pandemic for all ethnic groups, though highest in those of White ethnicity (heart failure risk difference: 5.4). Relatively, ethnic differences narrowed for heart failure admission in those of Asian (Pre-pandemic HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.49, 1.64, Pandemic HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.19, 1.29) and Black ethnicity (Pre-pandemic HR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.30, 1.53, Pandemic HR: 1.16, 95% CI 1.09, 1.25) compared with White ethnicity. For other outcomes the pandemic had minimal impact on ethnic differences., Interpretation: Our study suggests that ethnic differences in clinical monitoring and hospitalisations remained largely unchanged during the pandemic for most conditions. Key exceptions were hospitalisations for diabetic ketoacidosis and heart failure, which warrant further investigation to understand the causes., Funding: LSHTM COVID-19 Response Grant (DONAT15912)., Competing Interests: SVK was co-chair of the Scottish Government's Expert Reference Group on Ethnicity and COVID-19 and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) subgroup on ethnicity. RM and RME were members of the SAGE subgroup on ethnicity. REC has personal shares in AstraZeneca (AZ) unrelated to this work. BMK is also employed by NHS England (all declarations are openly available at: https://www.whopaysthisdoctor.org/doctor/491/active). JFH has grant funding from UKRI and the Wellcome Trust, has a patent with Juli Health unrelated to this work and has received consultancy fees from Juli Health and the Wellcome Trust unrelated to this work. RM is supported by Barts Charity (MGU0504), receives salary contributions from Genes & Health and has received consultancy fees from AMGEN. JKQ has grants from MRC, HDR UK, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), BI, asthma + lung UK, and AZ and has received fees from GSK, Evidera, AZ and Insmed. SL was co-founder and co-chair of the RECORD steering committee and has a leadership role at Health Data Research UK. KM has received consultancy fees from AMGEN. LT has grant funding from MRC, the Wellcome Trust and is funded by an NIHR Research Professorship (NIHR302405), has consulted for Bayer and is on the MHRA expert advisory group (Women's health) and a member of 4 non-industry funded trial advisory committees (unpaid). All other authors declare no competing interests. AM has received consultancy fees from induction health and is a member of RCGP health informatics group and the NHS Digital GP data Professional Advisory Group., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Background: While cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a risk factor for severe COVID-19, the association between predicted cardiovascular risk and severe COVID-19 among people without diagnosed CVD is unclear., Methods: We carried out historical, population-based cohort studies among adults aged 40-84 years in England using linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Individuals were categorized into: existing CVD, raised cardiovascular risk (defined using QRISK3 score ≥10%) and low risk (QRISK3 score <10%) at 12/03/2020. We described incidence and severe outcomes of COVID-19 (deaths, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions, hospitalisations, major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE]) for each group. Among those with a COVID-19 record to 31/12/2020, we re-classified cardiovascular risk at infection and assessed the risk of severe outcomes using multivariable Cox regression with complete case analysis. We repeated analyses using hypertension to define raised cardiovascular risk., Findings: Among 6,059,055 individuals, 741,913 (12.2%) had established CVD, 1,929,627 (31.8%) had a QRISK3 score ≥10% and 3,387,515 (55.9%) had a QRISK3 score <10%. Marked gradients were seen in the incidence of all severe COVID-19 outcomes by cardiovascular risk profile. Among those with COVID-19 (N = 146,760), there was a strong association between raised QRISK3 score and death: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 8.77 (7.62-10.10), N = 97,725, which remained present, though attenuated in age-stratified results. Risks of other outcomes were also higher among those with raised QRISK3 score: aHR 3.66 (3.18-4.21) for ICU admissions, 3.38 (3.22-3.56) for hospitalisations, 5.43 (4.44-6.64) for MACE. When raised cardiovascular risk was redefined by hypertension status, only the association with MACE remained: aHR 1.49 (1.20-1.85), N = 57,264., Interpretation: Individuals without pre-existing CVD but with raised cardiovascular risk (by QRISK3 score) were more likely to experience severe COVID-19 outcomes and should be prioritised for prevention and treatment. Addressing cardiovascular risk factors could improve COVID-19 outcomes., Funding: BMA Foundation for Medical Research/Rosetrees Trust, Wellcome, BHF., Competing Interests: CWG reports participation in the data safety and monitoring board for the IAMI trial of influenza vaccine for cardiovascular disease (NCT02831608) ending April 2020. JB reports consulting fees from ARCbio, HVivo and GSK and participation in a data safety and monitoring board for the COM Cov trial, Oxford, now ended. AB reports grants from NIHR, AstraZeneca and the British Medical Association and leadership roles as Vice-President, Digital, Marketing, Communications for the British Cardiovascular Society and Senior Advisor to the Emerging Leaders Programme of the World Heart Federation. All other authors report no conflicts., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Aims: Previous studies show a reduced incidence of first myocardial infarction and stroke 1-3 months after influenza vaccination, but it is unclear how underlying cardiovascular risk impacts the association., Methods and Results: The study used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care and Office for National Statistics mortality data from England between 1 September 2008 and 31 August 2019. From the data, individuals aged 40-84 years with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccination occurring within 12 months of each September were selected. Using a self-controlled case series analysis, season-adjusted cardiovascular risk stratified incidence ratios (IRs) for cardiovascular events after vaccination compared with baseline time before and >120 days after vaccination were generated. 193 900 individuals with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccine were included. 105 539 had hypertension and 172 050 had a QRISK2 score ≥10%. In main analysis, acute cardiovascular event risk was reduced in the 15-28 days after vaccination [IR 0.72 (95% CI 0.70-0.74)] and, while the effect size tapered, remained reduced to 91-120 days after vaccination [0.83 (0.81-0.88)]. Reduced cardiovascular events were seen after vaccination among individuals of all age groups and with raised and low cardiovascular risk., Conclusions: Influenza vaccine may offer cardiovascular benefit among individuals at varying cardiovascular risk. Further studies are needed to characterize the populations who could derive the most cardiovascular benefits from vaccination., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: A.B. has received grants from Astra Zeneca, UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), British Medical Association and the NIHR. C.W.-G. has received speaker fees from Sanofi Pasteur and participated in a Data Safety Monitoring Board for an investigator-led trial of the effect of influenza vaccination after heart attack on future cardiovascular prognosis (NCT02831608) from January 2019 to April 2020. H.I.M is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Vaccines and Immunisation was an invited expert to the Commission on Human Medicines (CHM) COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Surveillance Methodologies Expert Working Group. I.D. has received unrestricted research grants from Glaxo Smith Kline. C.L. has received lecturer fees from Astra Zeneca and participated in a Data Safety Monitoring Board for the Université de Clermont-Ferrand (NCT03892148). J.A.D is funded by the British Heart Foundation through the grant received by C.W.-G. E.H. is funded by a NIHR postdoctoral fellowship. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Background: Cardiovascular risks are raised in cancer survivors but cancer history is not included in cardiovascular risk scores that inform preventive decisions., Aim: To assess whether cancer diagnosis should be included in cardiovascular risk scores., Design and Setting: Cohort study using data from English general practices linked to hospital, cancer registration, and death registration data from 1990 to 2015., Method: Adults alive 1 year after a first cancer diagnosis and age, sex, general practice, and calendar- time matched cancer-free individuals were included. Individuals with <2 years of follow-up before index, recent statin prescriptions, or pre-existing coronary heart or cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Cox proportional hazard models used to develop QRISK3 scores were replicated with added cancer history variables. Whether independent hazard ratios for these variables met thresholds for inclusion in QRISK3 (>10% relative difference with P <0.01) was assessed., Results: In total, 81 420 cancer survivors and 413 547 cancer-free individuals were followed for a median 5.2 years (interquartile range [IQR] 2.8- 9.1) and 6.3 years (IQR 3.5-10.2), respectively. Including a 1-year cancer survivorship variable in a QRISK3-based model met the threshold for inclusion for males (independent hazard ratio [iHR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11 to 1.20, P <0.001) but not females (iHR 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.14, P = 0.02). When including cancer type, the threshold was met for both sexes with history of haematological cancer (males: iHR 1.27, 95% CI = 1.16 to 1.40, P <0.001; females: iHR 1.59, 95% CI = 1.32 to 1.91, P <0.001) and for males but not females with history of solid cancers (males: iHR 1.13, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.18, P <0.001; females: iHR 1.04, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.10, P = 0.19)., Conclusion: Developers should consider including cancer history variables in future cardiovascular risk models., (© The Authors.)

Background: Ethnic differences in the risk of severe COVID-19 may be linked to household composition. We quantified the association between household composition and risk of severe COVID-19 by ethnicity for older individuals., Methods: With the approval of NHS England, we analysed ethnic differences in the association between household composition and severe COVID-19 in people aged 67 or over in England. We defined households by number of age-based generations living together, and used multivariable Cox regression stratified by location and wave of the pandemic and accounted for age, sex, comorbidities, smoking, obesity, housing density and deprivation. We included 2 692 223 people over 67 years in Wave 1 (1 February 2020-31 August 2020) and 2 731 427 in Wave 2 (1 September 2020-31 January 2021)., Results: Multigenerational living was associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 for White and South Asian older people in both waves [e.g. Wave 2, 67+ living with three other generations vs 67+-year-olds only: White hazard ratio (HR) 1.61 95% CI 1.38-1.87, South Asian HR 1.76 95% CI 1.48-2.10], with a trend for increased risks of severe COVID-19 with increasing generations in Wave 2. There was also an increased risk of severe COVID-19 in Wave 1 associated with living alone for White (HR 1.35 95% CI 1.30-1.41), South Asian (HR 1.47 95% CI 1.18-1.84) and Other (HR 1.72 95% CI 0.99-2.97) ethnicities, an effect that persisted for White older people in Wave 2., Conclusions: Both multigenerational living and living alone were associated with severe COVID-19 in older adults. Older South Asian people are over-represented within multigenerational households in England, especially in the most deprived settings, whereas a substantial proportion of White older people live alone. The number of generations in a household, number of occupants, ethnicity and deprivation status are important considerations in the continued roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination and targeting of interventions for future pandemics., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Objectives: To investigate alcohol use recording in people with newly diagnosed depression in English primary care and individual characteristics associated with the recording of alcohol use., Design: A population-based cross-sectional study., Setting: Primary care data from English practices contributing to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink., Participants: We included adults (18+ years) diagnosed with depression between 1 January 2011 and 1 January 2017 without previous antidepressant use and at least 1 year of registration before diagnosis., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: We described the proportion of individuals with alcohol use and level of alcohol use recorded at four time points (the date of depression diagnosis, 3 months before or after depression diagnosis, 12 months before or after depression diagnosis and any point pre or postdepression diagnosis). We used logistic regression to investigate individual characteristics associated with alcohol use recording in the 3 months before or after depression diagnosis., Results: We identified 36 424 adults with depression. 538 (2%) had alcohol use recorded in the 3 months before or after depression diagnosis using formal validated methods such as the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test and its abbreviated versions. At each time point, most individuals with alcohol use recorded were low risk drinkers. Alcohol use recording in the 3 months before or after depression diagnosis was associated with male sex (OR=1.38, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.48) and several other individual-level factors., Conclusions: Our study shows low levels of alcohol use recording in the 3 months before or after depression diagnosis. Levels of alcohol use recording varied depending on individual characteristics. Incentivised recording of alcohol use will increase completeness, which could improve clinical management and reduce missed opportunities for care in people with depression., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: For five decades, blood pressure lowering treatment has been recommended for patients with hypertension (currently defined as blood pressure of ≥140/90 mm Hg). In the past 20 years, guidelines for treatment began incorporating predicted absolute cardiovascular disease risk (predicted risk) and reducing blood pressure thresholds. The blood pressure threshold at which to start treatment has become a secondary consideration in some countries. We aimed to provide descriptive data to assess the relative importance of blood pressure thresholds versus predicted risk on the subsequent rate of cardiovascular disease to inform treatment decisions., Methods: In this English population-based cohort study, we used linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD, Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care, and the Office for National Statistics mortality data, and area-based deprivation indices (Townsend scores). Eligible patients were aged 30-79 years on Jan 1, 2011 (cohort entry date) and could be linked to hospital, mortality, and deprivation data. Patients were followed up until death, end of CPRD follow-up, or Nov 31, 2018. We examined three outcomes: cardiovascular disease, markers of potential target organ damage, and incident dementia without a known cause. The rate of each outcome was estimated and stratified by systolic blood pressure and predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (QRISK2 algorithm)., Findings: Between Jan 1, 2011, and Nov 31, 2018, 1 098 991 patients were included in the cohort and followed up for a median of 4·3 years (IQR 2·6-6·0; total follow-up of 4·6 million person-years). Median age at entry was 52 years (IQR 42-62) and 629 711 (57·3%) patients were female. There were 51 996 cardiovascular disease events and the overall rate of cardiovascular disease was 11·2 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 11·1-11·3). Median QRISK2 10-year predicted risk was 4·6% (IQR 1·4-12·0) and mean systolic blood pressure before cohort entry was 129·1 mm Hg (SD 15·7). Within strata of predicted risk, the effect of increasing systolic blood pressure on outcomes was small. For example, in the group with 10·0-19·9% predicted risk, rates of all cardiovascular disease rose from 20·1 to 23·6 per 1000 person-years between systolic blood pressures less than 110 mm Hg and 180 and higher mm Hg. But among patients with systolic blood pressure 140·0-149·9 mm Hg, rates rose from 6·9 to 52·3 per 1000 person-years between those with less than 10·0% risk and those with 30·0% or higher predicted risk., Interpretation: For a wide range of blood pressures, the rate of cardiovascular disease and effectiveness of blood pressure drug treatment was mainly determined by predicted risk, with blood pressure thresholds 140/90 mm Hg or 160/100 mm Hg-ubiquitous in most countries-adding little useful information. When medium-term predicted risk is low, there is no urgency to initiate drug treatment, allowing time to attempt non-pharmacological blood pressure reduction., Funding: National Institute for Health Research., Competing Interests: DN was on the steering group for two GlaxoSmithKline funded studies investigating aspects of kidney function in children and adults in sub-Saharan Africa; holds a grant from the UK Health Foundation on improving acute cardiac care for kidney patients; and is the Renal Association's director of informatics research. LT is a member of three Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency's expert advisory groups and an unpaid member of two non-industry funded trial advisory committees. EW received personal payment for providing training on statistical methods, outside of the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.)

Background: Although acute respiratory infections can lead to cardiovascular complications, the effect of underlying cardiovascular risk on the incidence of acute respiratory infections and cardiovascular complications following acute respiratory infection in individuals without established cardiovascular disease is unknown. We aimed to investigate whether cardiovascular risk is associated with increased risk of acute respiratory infection and acute cardiovascular events after acute respiratory infection using 10 years of linked electronic health record (EHR) data in England., Methods: In this retrospective, population-based cohort study we used EHRs from primary care providers registered on the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD and Aurum databases in England. Eligible individuals were aged 40-64 years, did not have established cardiovascular disease or a chronic health condition that would make them eligible for influenza vaccination, were registered at a general practice contributing to the CPRD, and had linked Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care data in England from Sept 1, 2008, to Aug 31, 2018. We classified cardiovascular risk on the basis of diagnosed hypertension and overall predicted cardiovascular risk, estimated by use of the QRISK2 risk-prediction tool (comparing a score of ≥10% [increased risk] with a score of <10% [low risk]). Using multivariable Poisson regression models, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for systemic acute respiratory infection. Among individuals who had an acute respiratory infection, we used multivariable Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of acute cardiovascular events within 1 year of infection., Findings: We identified 6 075 321 individuals aged 40-64 years with data in the CPRD and linked data in the Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care database between Sept 1, 2008, and Aug 31, 2018. Of these individuals, 4 212 930 (including 526 480 [12·5%] with hypertension and 607 087 [14·4%] with a QRISK2 score of ≥10%) were included in the assessment of the incidence of acute respiratory infection. After adjusting for confounders (age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, body-mass index, alcohol consumption, smoking status, and consultation frequency in the hypertension analysis; and alcohol consumption and consultation frequency in the QRISK2 analysis), the incidence of acute respiratory infection was higher in individuals with hypertension than those without (IRR 1·04 [95% CI 1·03-1·05]) and higher in those with a QRISK2 score of 10% or higher than in those with a QRISK2 score of less than 10% (1·39 [1·37-1·40]). Of the 442 408 individuals who had an acute respiratory infection, 4196 (0·9%) had an acute cardiovascular event within 1 year of infection. After adjustment (for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, body-mass index, alcohol consumption, and smoking status in the hypertension analysis; and for alcohol consumption in the QRISK2 analysis), hypertension (HR 1·98 [95% CI 1·83-2·15]) and a QRISK2 score of 10% or higher (3·65 [3·42-3·89]) were associated with a substantially increased risk of acute cardiovascular events after acute respiratory infection., Interpretation: People with increased cardiovascular risk but without diagnosed cardiovascular disease, measured by diagnosed hypertension or overall predicted cardiovascular risk, could benefit from influenza and pneumococcal vaccine prioritisation to reduce their risk of both acute respiratory infection and cardiovascular complications following an acute respiratory infection., Funding: British Heart Foundation and the Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests AB reports receiving grants from AstraZeneca, UK Research and Innovation, and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). CW-G reports receiving grants from the Wellcome Trust and the British Heart Foundation; receiving speaker fees from Sanofi Pasteur; and participating in a data safety monitoring board for an investigator-led trial of the effect of influenza vaccination after heart attack on future cardiovascular prognosis (NCT02831608) from January, 2019, to April, 2020. HIM is funded by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisation. JAD is funded by the British Heart Foundation through the grant received by CW-G. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Uncertainty persists about whether or not statins cause symptomatic muscle adverse effects (e.g. pain, stiffness and weakness) in the absence of severe myositis., Objectives: To establish the effect of statins on all muscle symptoms, and the effect of statins on muscle symptoms that are perceived to be statin related., Design: A series of 200 double-blinded N-of-1 trials., Setting: Participants were recruited from 50 general practices in England and Wales., Participants: Patients who were considering discontinuing statin use and those who had discontinued statin use in the last 3 years because of perceived muscle symptoms., Interventions: Participants were randomised to a sequence of six 2-month treatment periods during which they received 20 mg of atorvastatin daily or a matched placebo., Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was self-reported muscle symptoms rated using a visual analogue scale on the last week of each treatment period. Secondary outcomes included the participant's belief about the cause of their muscle symptoms, the site of muscle symptoms, how the muscle symptoms affected the participant, any other symptoms they experienced, adherence to medication, the participant's decision about statin treatment following the trial, and whether or not they found their own trial result helpful., Results: A total of 151 out of 200 (75.5%) randomised participants provided one or more visual analogue scale measurements in a placebo period and one or more measurements in a statin period, and were included in the primary analysis. There was no evidence of a difference in muscle symptom scores between statin and placebo periods (mean difference statin minus placebo -0.11, 95% confidence interval -0.36 to 0.14; p  = 0.398). Withdrawals, adherence and missing data were similar during the statin periods and the placebo periods., Conclusions: Among people who previously reported severe muscle symptoms while taking statins, this series of randomised N-of-1 trials found no overall effect of statins on muscle symptoms compared with the placebo. The slight difference in withdrawals due to muscle symptoms suggests that statins may contribute to symptoms in a small number of patients. The results are generalisable to patients who are considering discontinuing or have already discontinued statins because of muscle symptoms, and who are willing to re-challenge or participate in their own N-of-1 trial., Future Work: We recommend that additional statins and doses are explored using N-of-1 trials. More broadly, N-of-1 trials present a useful tool for exploring transient symptoms with other medications., Limitations: This study used 20-mg doses of atorvastatin only. Furthermore, a dropout rate of 43% was observed, but this was accounted for in the power calculations., Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN30952488 and EudraCT 2016-000141-31., Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 25, No. 16. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background: Since 2010 the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has recommended screening adults for excessive alcohol consumption to try and help prevent alcohol-use disorders. Little is known about the extent to which these recommendations are followed, and the resulting completeness and validity of alcohol-related data recording in primary care., Objective: To investigate the completeness and accuracy of recording of alcohol use within primary care records in the UK., Design and Setting: Cross-sectional study in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink., Participants: We included all adult patients registered on 1 st January 2018 with ≥1 year of follow-up., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: We calculated prevalence of alcohol consumption recording overall and within patient groups. We then validated alcohol consumption data against recommended screening tools (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT)) as the gold standard. We also calculated how prevalence of alcohol recording changed over the preceding decade., Results: In 2018, among 1.8 million registered adult patients, just over half (51.9%) had a record for a code related to alcohol in the previous 5 years. Recording of alcohol consumption was more common among women, older people, ex-smokers and those from more deprived areas, who were overweight/obese, or with comorbidities. A quarter of patients had units per week recorded in the last 5 years, but <10% had an AUDIT or Fast Alcohol Screening Test (FAST) alcohol screening test score. The recorded alcohol measures corresponded to results from gold standard AUDIT scores. The distribution of consumption among current drinkers was similar to the Health Survey for England., Conclusions: Half of adults in UK primary care have no recorded alcohol consumption data. When consumption is recorded, we have demonstrated internal and external validity of the data, suggesting greater recording may help identify opportunities for interventions to reduce harms., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Worldwide treatment recommendations for lowering blood pressure continue to be guided predominantly by blood pressure thresholds, despite strong evidence that the benefits of blood pressure reduction are observed in patients across the blood pressure spectrum. In this study, we aimed to investigate the implications of alternative strategies for offering blood pressure treatment, using the UK as an illustrative example., Methods: We did a retrospective cohort study in primary care patients aged 30-79 years without cardiovascular disease, using data from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics mortality. We assessed and compared four different strategies to determine eligibility for treatment: using 2011 UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline, or proposed 2019 NICE guideline, or blood pressure alone (threshold ≥140/90 mm Hg), or predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk alone (QRISK2 score ≥10%). Patients were followed up until the earliest occurrence of a cardiovascular disease diagnosis, death, or end of follow-up period (March 31, 2016). For each strategy, we estimated the proportion of patients eligible for treatment and number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented with treatment. We then estimated eligibility and number of events that would occur during 10 years in the UK general population., Findings: Between Jan 1, 2011, and March 31, 2016, 1 222 670 patients in the cohort were followed up for a median of 4·3 years (IQR 2·5-5·2). 271 963 (22·2%) patients were eligible for treatment under the 2011 NICE guideline, 327 429 (26·8%) under the proposed 2019 NICE guideline, 481 859 (39·4%) on the basis of a blood pressure threshold of 140/90 mm Hg or higher, and 357 840 (29·3%) on the basis of a QRISK2 threshold of 10% or higher. During follow-up, 32 183 patients were diagnosed with cardiovascular disease (overall rate 7·1 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 7·0-7·2). Cardiovascular event rates in patients eligible for each strategy were 15·2 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 15·0-15·5) under the 2011 NICE guideline, 14·9 (14·7-15·1) under the proposed 2019 NICE guideline, 11·4 (11·3-11·6) with blood pressure threshold alone, and 16·9 (16·7-17·1) with QRISK2 threshold alone. Scaled to the UK population, we estimated that 233 152 events would be avoided under the 2011 NICE guideline (28 patients needed to treat for 10 years to avoid one event), 270 233 under the 2019 NICE guideline (29 patients), 301 523 using a blood pressure threshold (38 patients), and 322 921 using QRISK2 threshold (27 patients)., Interpretation: A cardiovascular risk-based strategy (QRISK2 ≥10%) could prevent over a third more cardiovascular disease events than the 2011 NICE guideline and a fifth more than the 2019 NICE guideline, with similar efficiency regarding number treated per event avoided., Funding: National Institute for Health Research., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Total knee replacement (TKR) is a common procedure for the treatment of osteoarthritis that provides a substantial reduction of knee pain and improved function in most patients. We investigated whether sociodemographic factors could explain variations in the benefit resulting from TKR., Methods: Data were collected from 3 sources: the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man; National Health Service (NHS) England Patient Reported Outcome Measures; and Hospital Episode Statistics. These 3 sources were linked for analysis. Pain and function of the knee were measured with use of the Oxford Knee Score (OKS). The risk factors of interest were age group, sex, deprivation, and social support. The outcomes of interest were sociodemographic differences in preoperative scores, 6-month postoperative scores, and change in scores., Results: Ninety-one thousand nine hundred and thirty-six adults underwent primary TKR for the treatment of osteoarthritis in an NHS England unit from 2009 to 2012. Sixty-six thousand seven hundred and sixty-nine of those patients had complete knee score data and were included in the analyses for the present study. The preoperative knee scores were worst in female patients, younger patients, and patients from deprived areas. At 6 months postoperatively, the mean knee score had improved by 15.2 points. There were small sociodemographic differences in the benefit of surgery, with greater area deprivation (-0.71 per quintile of increase in deprivation; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.76 to -0.66; p < 0.001) and younger age group (-3.51 for ≤50 years compared with 66 to 75 years; 95% CI, -4.00 to -3.02; p < 0.001) associated with less benefit. Cumulatively, sociodemographic factors explained <1% of the total variability in improvement., Conclusions: Sociodemographic factors have a small influence on the benefit resulting from TKR. However, as they are associated with the clinical threshold at which the procedure is performed, they do affect the eventual outcomes of TKR., Level of Evidence: Prognostic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of evidence.

Introduction: Statins are effective at preventing cardiovascular disease, widely prescribed and their use is growing. Uncertainty persists about whether they cause symptomatic muscle adverse effects, such as pain and weakness, in the absence of statin myopathy. Discrepancies between data from observational studies, which suggest statins are associated with excess muscle symptoms, and from randomised trials, which suggest no such excess, have caused confusion. N-of-1 trials offer the opportunity to establish whether muscle symptoms during statin use are caused by statins in particular individuals., Methods and Analysis: This series of 200 randomised, double-blinded N-of-1 trials in primary care will determine (1) the effect of statins on all muscle symptoms and (2) the effect of statins on muscle pain that is perceived to be statin related. Patients who are considering discontinuing statin use due to muscle symptoms and those who have discontinued in the last 3 years due to such symptoms will be recruited. Participants will be randomised to a sequence of six 2-month treatment periods during which they will receive atorvastatin 20 mg per day or matched placebo. On each of the last 7 days of each treatment period, participants will rate their muscle symptoms on a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS).At the end of their trial, participants will be shown numerical and graphical summaries of their own symptom data during statin and placebo periods. The primary analysis on the aggregate data from all participants will be a linear mixed model for VAS muscle symptom score, comparing scores during treatment with statin and placebo., Ethics and Dissemination: This trial received a favourable opinion from South Central-Hampshire A Research Ethics Committee. Results will be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal. Dissemination of results to patients will take place via the media, website (statinwise.lshtm.ac.uk) and patient organisations., Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN30952488., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Purpose: The UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) is increasingly being used by Dutch researchers in epidemiology and pharmacoepidemiology. It is however unclear if the UK CPRD is representative of the Dutch population and whether study results would apply to the Dutch population. Therefore, as first step, our objective was to compare the age and sex distribution of the CPRD with the total Dutch population., Methods: As a measure of representativeness, the age and sex distribution of the UK CPRD were visually and numerically compared with Dutch census data from the StatLine database of the Dutch National Bureau of Statistics in 2011., Results: The age distribution of men and women in the CPRD population was comparable to the Dutch male and female population. Differences of more than 10% only occurred in older age categories (75+ in men and 80+ in women)., Conclusions: Results from observational studies that have used CPRD data are applicable to the Dutch population, and a useful resource for decision making in the Netherlands. Nevertheless, differences in drug exposure likelihood between countries should be kept in mind, as these could still cause variations in the actual population studied, thereby decreasing its generalizability. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Objectives: To assess reporting quality of studies using routinely collected health data (RCD) to inform the REporting of studies Conducted using Observational Routinely collected health Data (RECORD) guideline development., Study Design and Setting: PubMed search for observational studies using RCD on any epidemiologic or clinical topic. Sample of studies published in 2012. Evaluation of five items based on the STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guideline and eight newly developed items for RCD studies., Results: Of 124 included studies, 39 (31.5%) clearly described its design in title or abstract. Complete information to frame a focused research question, that is, on the population, intervention/exposure, and outcome, was provided for 51 studies (41.1%). In 44 studies where definitions of codes or classification algorithms would be necessary to operationalize such a research question, only nine (20.5%) reported all items adequately. In 81 studies describing multivariable analyses, 54 (66.7%) reported all variables used for modeling and 34 (42.0%) reported basic details required for replication. Database linkage was reported adequately in 12 of 41 studies (29.3%). Statements about data sharing/availability were rare (5/124; 4%)., Conclusion: Most RCD studies are insufficiently reported. Specific reporting guidelines and more awareness and education on their use are urgently needed., (Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To assess the accuracy of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scores in predicting mortality at 6 months for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to investigate how it might be improved., Methods: Data were obtained on 481 849 patients with acute coronary syndrome admitted to UK hospitals between January 2003 and June 2013 from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) database. We compared risk of death between patients with COPD and those without COPD at 6 months, adjusting for predicted risk of death. We then assessed whether several modifications improved the accuracy of the GRACE score for people with COPD., Results: The risk of death after adjusting for GRACE score predicted that risk of death was higher for patients with COPD than that for other patients (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.33). Adding smoking into the GRACE score model did not improve accuracy for patients with COPD. Either adding COPD into the model (relative risk (RR) 1.00, 0.94 to 1.02) or multiplying the GRACE score by 1.3 resulted in better performance (RR 0.99, 0.96 to 1.01)., Conclusions: GRACE scores underestimate risk of death for people with COPD. A more accurate prediction of risk of death can be obtained by adding COPD into the GRACE score equation, or by multiplying the GRACE score predicted risk of death by 1.3 for people with COPD. This means that one third of patients with COPD currently classified as low risk should be classified as moderate risk, and could be considered for more aggressive early treatment after non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction or unstable angina., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Objectives: (1) To develop methods for conducting cluster randomised trials of text messaging interventions utilising routine electronic health records at low cost; (2) to assess the effectiveness of text messaging influenza vaccine reminders in increasing vaccine uptake in patients with chronic conditions., Design: Cluster randomised trial with general practices as clusters., Setting: English primary care., Participants: 156 general practices, who used text messaging software, who had not previously used text message influenza vaccination reminders. Eligible patients were aged 18-64 in 'at-risk' groups., Interventions: Practices were randomly allocated to either an intervention or standard care arm in the 2013 influenza season (September to December). Practices in the intervention arm were asked to send a text message influenza vaccination reminder to their at-risk patients under 65. Practices in the standard care arm were asked to continue their influenza campaign as planned., Blinding: Practices were not blinded. Analysis was performed blinded to practice allocation., Main Outcome Measures: Practice-level influenza vaccine uptake among at-risk patients aged 18-64 years., Results: 77 practices were randomised to the intervention group (76 analysed, n at-risk patients=51,121), 79 to the standard care group (79 analysed, n at-risk patients=51,136). The text message increased absolute vaccine uptake by 2.62% (95% CI -0.09% to 5.33%), p=0.058, though this could have been due to chance. Within intervention clusters, a median 21.0% (IQR 10.2% to 47.0%) of eligible patients were sent a text message. The number needed to treat was 7.0 (95% CI -0.29 to 14.3)., Conclusions: Patient follow-up using routine electronic health records is a low cost method of conducting cluster randomised trials. Text messaging reminders are likely to result in modest improvements in influenza vaccine uptake, but levels of patients being texted need to markedly increase if text messaging reminders are to have much effect., Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN48840025., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)