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Japan has set greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050, as stated in the nationally determined contribution (NDC) and in the long-term strategy for decarbonization (LTS) submitted to the UNFCCC in 2020, respectively. While upgrading these targets is needed to realize the global climate goals (2 °C and 1.5 °C), the implications of the target for the period in-between remains unclear. This study assesses the energy and macroeconomic impacts of enhancing the ambition of 2040 and 2050 emission reduction targets in Japan by means of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. In addition, we analyze the implications on the speed of energy efficiency improvement and low-carbon energy penetration along with macroeconomic impacts, and the shift from the current LTS goal (80% emissions reduction by 2050) to a full decarbonization one. The study shows that, compared to the current ambition (53% reduction by 2040 compared to 2005), enhancing ambition of the 2040 (63% reduction by 2040 compared to 2005) and 2050 targets (zero emissions by 2050) rises the share of low-carbon energy supply more drastically than the decreases in energy intensity, and increases macroeconomic costs by 19–72%. Moreover, meeting these targets demands accelerating considerably the reductions in carbon intensities through expansion of renewables and CCS beyond historical trends and beyond current efforts towards the 2030s NDC. Enabling larger low-carbon supplies and energy efficiency improvements makes full decarbonization by 2050 possible at costs equivalent to current ambition. Further analyses are needed to clarify at a finer detail the implications of changes in these enablers by sectors, technologies and policies. This kind of analysis offer key insights on the feasibility of Japan’s emission reduction targets for the formulation of new commitments for the next cycle of the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement.

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.

In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect. Key policy insights For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS. The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power. Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

The QUIJOTE-CMB project has been described in previous publications. Here we present the current status of the QUIJOTE multi-frequency instrument (MFI) with five separate polarimeters (providing 5 independent sky pixels): two which operate at 10-14 GHz, two which operate at 16-20 GHz, and a central polarimeter at 30 GHz. The optical arrangement includes 5 conical corrugated feedhorns staring into a dual reflector crossed-draconian system, which provides optimal cross-polarization properties (designed to be < −35 dB) and symmetric beams. Each horn feeds a novel cryogenic on-axis rotating polar modulator which can rotate at a speed of up to 1 Hz. The science driver for this first instrument is the characterization of the galactic emission. The polarimeters use the polar modulator to derive linear polar parameters Q, U and I and switch out various systematics. The detection system provides optimum sensitivity through 2 correlated and 2 total power channels. The system is calibrated using bright polarized celestial sources and through a secondary calibration source and antenna. The acquisition system, telescope control and housekeeping are all linked through a real-time gigabit Ethernet network. All communication, power and helium gas are passed through a central rotary joint. The time stamp is synchronized to a GPS time signal. The acquisition software is based on PLCs written in Beckhoffs TwinCat and ethercat. The user interface is written in LABVIEW. The status of the QUIJOTE MFI will be presented including pre-commissioning results and laboratory testing.