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Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) are blood cancers that appear after acquiring a driver mutation in a hematopoietic stem cell. These hematological malignancies result in the overproduction of mature blood cells and, if not treated, induce a risk of cardiovascular events and thrombosis. Pegylated IFN$\alpha $ is commonly used to treat MPN, but no clear guidelines exist concerning the dose prescribed to patients. We applied a model selection procedure and ran a hierarchical Bayesian inference method to decipher how dose variations impact the response to the therapy. We inferred that IFN$\alpha $ acts on mutated stem cells by inducing their differentiation into progenitor cells; the higher the dose, the higher the effect. We found that the treatment can induce long-term remission when a sufficient (patient-dependent) dose is reached. We determined this minimal dose for individuals in a cohort of patients and estimated the most suitable starting dose to give to a new patient to increase the chances of being cured., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.)

Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are hematologic malignancies that result from acquired driver mutations in hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), causing overproduction of blood cells and an increased risk of thrombohemorrhagic events. The most common MPN driver mutation affects the JAK2 gene ( JAK2 V617F ). Interferon alpha (IFN α ) is a promising treatment against MPNs by inducing a hematologic response and molecular remission for some patients. Mathematical models have been proposed to describe how IFN α targets mutated HSCs, indicating that a minimal dose is necessary for long-term remission. This study aims to determine a personalized treatment strategy. First, we show the capacity of an existing model to predict cell dynamics for new patients from data that can be easily obtained in clinic. Then, we study different treatment scenarios in silico for three patients, considering potential IFN α dose-toxicity relations. We assess when the treatment should be interrupted depending on the response, the patient's age, and the inferred development of the malignant clone without IFN α We find that an optimal strategy would be to treat patients with a constant dose so that treatment could be interrupted as quickly as possible. Higher doses result in earlier discontinuation but also higher toxicity. Without knowledge of the dose-toxicity relationship, trade-off strategies can be found for each patient. A compromise strategy is to treat patients with medium doses (60-120 μ g/week) for 10-15 years. Altogether, this work demonstrates how a mathematical model calibrated from real data can help build a clinical decision-support tool to optimize long-term IFN α therapy for MPN patients. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are chronic blood cancers. Interferon alpha (IFN α ) is a promising treatment with the potential to induce a molecular response by targeting mutated hematopoietic stem cells. MPN patients are treated over several years, and there is a lack of knowledge concerning the posology strategy and the best timing for interrupting therapy. The study opens avenues for rationalizing how to treat MPN patients with IFN α over several years, promoting a more personalized approach to treatment., (Copyright © 2023 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.)

The developmental history of blood cancer begins with mutation acquisition and the resulting malignant clone expansion. The two most prevalent driver mutations found in myeloproliferative neoplasms- JAK2 V617F and CALR m -occur in hematopoietic stem cells, which are highly complex to observe in vivo. To circumvent this difficulty, we propose a method relying on mathematical modeling and statistical inference to determine disease initiation and dynamics. Our findings suggest that CALR m mutations tend to occur later in life than JAK2 V617F . Our results confirm the higher proliferative advantage of the CALR m malignant clone compared to JAK2 V617F . Furthermore, we illustrate how mathematical modeling and Bayesian inference can be used for setting up early screening strategies.

Classical BCR-ABL-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are clonal disorders of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) caused mainly by recurrent mutations in genes encoding JAK2 (JAK2), calreticulin (CALR), or the thrombopoietin receptor (MPL). Interferon α (IFNα) has demonstrated some efficacy in inducing molecular remission in MPNs. To determine factors that influence molecular response rate, we evaluated the long-term molecular efficacy of IFNα in patients with MPN by monitoring the fate of cells carrying driver mutations in a prospective observational and longitudinal study of 48 patients over more than 5 years. We measured the clonal architecture of early and late hematopoietic progenitors (84 845 measurements) and the global variant allele frequency in mature cells (409 measurements) several times per year. Using mathematical modeling and hierarchical Bayesian inference, we further inferred the dynamics of IFNα-targeted mutated HSCs. Our data support the hypothesis that IFNα targets JAK2V617F HSCs by inducing their exit from quiescence and differentiation into progenitors. Our observations indicate that treatment efficacy is higher in homozygous than heterozygous JAK2V617F HSCs and increases with high IFNα dose in heterozygous JAK2V617F HSCs. We also found that the molecular responses of CALRm HSCs to IFNα were heterogeneous, varying between type 1 and type 2 CALRm, and a high dose of IFNα correlates with worse outcomes. Our work indicates that the long-term molecular efficacy of IFNα implies an HSC exhaustion mechanism and depends on both the driver mutation type and IFNα dose., (© 2021 by The American Society of Hematology.)