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Climate models serve as indispensable tools to investigate the effect of anthropogenic emissions on current and future climate, including extremes. However, as low-dimensional approximations of the climate system, they will always exhibit biases. Several attempts have been made to correct for biases as they affect extremes prediction, predominantly focused on correcting model-simulated distribution shapes. In this study, the effectiveness of a recently published quantile-based bias correction scheme, as well as a new subset selection method introduced here, are tested out-of-sample using model-as-truth experiments. Results show that biases in the shape of distributions tend to persist through time, and therefore, correcting for shape bias is useful for past and future statements characterizing the probability of extremes. However, for statements characterized by a ratio of the probabilities of extremes between two periods, we find that correcting for shape bias often provides no skill improvement due to the dominating effect of bias in the long-term trend. Using a toy model experiment, we examine the relative importance of the shape of the distribution versus its position in response to long-term changes in radiative forcing. It confirms that the relative position of the two distributions, based on the trend, is at least as important as the shape. We encourage the community to consider all model biases relevant to their metric of interest when using a bias correction procedure and to construct out-of-sample tests that mirror the intended application.

Climate engineering, the intentional alteration of Earth's climate, is a multifaceted and controversial topic. Numerous climate engineering mechanisms (CEMs) have been proposed, and the efficacies and potential undesired consequences of some of them have been studied in the safe environments of numerical models. Here, we present a global modelling study of a so far understudied CEM, namely the seeding of cirrus clouds to reduce their lifetimes in the upper troposphere, and hence their greenhouse effect. Different from most CEMs, the intention of cirrus seeding is not to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. This particular CEM rather targets the greenhouse effect, by reducing the trapping of infrared radiation by high clouds. This avoids some of the caveats that have been identified for solar radiation management, for example, the delayed recovery of stratospheric ozone or drastic changes to Earth's hydrological cycle. We find that seeding of mid- and high-latitude cirrus clouds has the potential to cool the planet by about 1.4 K, and that this cooling is accompanied by only a modest reduction in rainfall. Intriguingly, seeding of the 15% of the globe with the highest solar noon zenith angles at any given time yields the same global mean cooling as a seeding strategy that involves 45% of the globe. In either case, the cooling is strongest at high latitudes, and could therefore serve to prevent Arctic sea ice loss. With the caveat that there are still significant uncertainties associated with ice nucleation in cirrus clouds and its representation in climate models, cirrus seeding appears to represent a powerful CEM with reduced side effects.

This study aimed to develop a method allowing high-dimensional and technically uniform screening of surface markers on cells of hematopoietic origin. High-dimensional screening of cell phenotypes is primarily the domain of single-cell RNA sequencing (RNAseq), which allows simultaneous analysis of the expression of thousands of genes in several thousands of cells. However, rare cell populations can often substantially impact tissue homeostasis or disease pathogenesis, and dysregulation of rare populations can easily be missed when only a few thousand cells are analyzed. With the presented methodological approach, it is possible to screen hundreds of markers on millions of cells in a technically uniform manner and thus identify and characterize changes in rare populations. We utilize the highly expressed markers CD45 on immune cells and CD71 on erythroid progenitors to create unique fluorescent barcodes on each of the 25 samples. Double-barcoded samples are co-stained with a broad immunophenotyping panel. The panel is designed in such a way that allows the addition of PE-labelled antibody, which was used for screening purposes. Multiplexed samples are divided into hundreds of aliquots and co-stained, each aliquot with a different PE-labelled antibody. Utilizing a broad immunophenotyping panel and machine-learning algorithms, we can predict the co-expression of hundreds of screened markers with a high degree of precision. This technique is suitable for screening immune cells in bone marrow from different locations, blood specimens, or any tissue with a substantial presence of immune cells, such as tumors or inflamed tissue areas in autoimmune conditions. It represents an approach that can significantly improve our ability to recognize dysregulated immune cell populations and, if needed, precisely target subsequent experiments covering lower cell counts such as RNAseq., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: The vertebral cartilage endplate (CEP), crucial for intervertebral disc health, is prone to degeneration linked to chronic low back pain, disc degeneration, and Modic changes (MC). While it is known that disc cells express toll-like receptors (TLRs) that recognize pathogen- and damage-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs and DAMPs), it is unclear if CEP cells (CEPCs) share this trait. The CEP has a higher cell density than the disc, making CEPCs an important contributor. This study aimed to identify TLRs on CEPCs and their role in pro-inflammatory and catabolic gene expression., Methods: Gene expression of TLR1-10 was measured in human CEPs and expanded CEPCs using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Additionally, surface TLR expression was measured in CEPs grouped into non-MC and MC. CEPCs were stimulated with tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin 1 beta, small-molecule TLR agonists, or the 30 kDa N-terminal fibronectin fragment. TLR2 signaling was inhibited with TL2-C29, and TLR2 protein expression was measured with flow cytometry., Results: Ex vivo analysis found all 10 TLRs expressed, while cultured CEPCs lost TLR8 and TLR9 expression. TLR2 expression was significantly increased in MC1 CEPCs, and its expression increased significantly after pro-inflammatory stimulation. Stimulation of the TLR2/6 heterodimer upregulated TLR2 protein expression. The TLR2/1 and TLR2/6 ligands upregulated pro-inflammatory genes and matrix metalloproteases (MMP1, MMP3, and MMP13), and TLR2 inhibition inhibited their upregulation. Endplate resorptive capacity of TLR2 activation was confirmed in a CEP explant model., Conclusions: The expression of TLR1-10 in CEPCs suggests that the CEP is susceptible to PAMP and DAMP stimulation. Enhanced TLR2 expression in MC1, and generally in CEPCs under inflammatory conditions, has pro-inflammatory and pro-catabolic effects, suggesting a potential role in disc degeneration and MC.

Introduction: The emerging field of the disc microbiome challenges traditional views of disc sterility, which opens new avenues for novel clinical insights. However, the lack of methodological consensus in disc microbiome studies introduces discrepancies. The aims of this study were to (1) compare the disc microbiome of non-Modic (nonMC), Modic type 1 change (MC1), and MC2 discs to findings from prior disc microbiome studies, and (2) investigate if discrepancies to prior studies can be explained with bioinformatic variations., Methods: Sequencing of 16S rRNA in 70 discs (24 nonMC, 25 MC1, and 21 MC2) for microbiome profiling. The experimental setup included buffer contamination controls and was performed under aseptic conditions. Methodology and results were contrasted with previous disc microbiome studies. Critical bioinformatic steps that were different in our best-practice approach and previous disc microbiome studies (taxonomic lineage assignment, prevalence cut-off) were varied and their effect on results were compared., Results: There was limited overlap of results with a previous study on MC disc microbiome. No bacterial genera were shared using the same bioinformatic parameters. Taxonomic lineage assignment using "amplicon sequencing variants" was more sensitive and detected 48 genera compared to 22 with "operational taxonomic units" (previous study). Increasing filter cut-off from 4% to 50% (previous study) reduced genera from 48 to 4 genera. Despite these differences, both studies observed dysbiosis with an increased abundance of gram-negative bacteria in MC discs as well as a lower beta-diversity. Cutibacterium was persistently detected in all groups independent of the bioinformatic approach, emphasizing its prevalence., Conclusion: There is dysbiosis in MC discs. Bioinformatic parameters impact results yet cannot explain the different findings from this and a previous study. Therefore, discrepancies are likely caused by different sample preparations or true biologic differences. Harmonized protocols are required to advance understanding of the disc microbiome and its clinical implications., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (© 2024 The Authors. JOR Spine published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Orthopaedic Research Society.)

Background: The multimodal properties of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs), particularly their ability to modulate immune responses is of high interest in translational research. Pro-inflammatory, hypoxic, and 3D culture priming are promising and often used strategies to improve the immunosuppressive potency of MSCs, but the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Therefore, the aims of this study were (i) to compare the effects of pro-inflammatory, hypoxic, and 3D culture priming on the in vitro immunosuppressive potential of MSCs, (ii) to assess if immunosuppressive priming effects are temporally preserved under standard and translationally relevant culture conditions, and (iii) to investigate if the three priming strategies engage the same immunosuppressive mechanisms., Methods: Functional in vitro T cell suppressive potency measurements were conducted to assess the impact of pro-inflammatory, hypoxic, and 3D culture priming on the immunosuppressive potential of human bone marrow-derived MSCs. Primed MSCs were either cultured under standard cell culture conditions or translationally relevant culture conditions, and their transcriptomic adaptations were monitored over time. Next-generation sequencing was performed to assess if different priming strategies activate distinct immunosuppressive mechanisms., Results: (i) Pro-inflammatory, hypoxic, and 3D culture priming induced profound transcriptomic changes in MSCs resulting in a significantly enhanced T cell suppressive potential of pro-inflammatory and 3D culture primed MSCs. (ii) Priming effects rapidly faded under standard cell culture conditions but were partially preserved under translationally relevant conditions. Interestingly, continuous 3D culture priming of MSCs maintained the immunosuppressive potency of MSCs. (iii) Next-generation sequencing revealed that priming strategy-specific differentially expressed genes are involved in the T cell suppressive capacity of MSCs, indicating that different priming strategies engage distinct immunosuppressive mechanisms., Conclusion: Priming can be a useful approach to improve the immunosuppressive potency of MSCs. However, future studies involving primed MSCs should carefully consider the significant impact of translationally relevant conditions on the preservation of priming effects. Continuous 3D culture could act as a functionalized formulation, supporting the administration of MSC spheroids for a sustainably improved immunosuppressive potency., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The pain in patients with Modic type 1 changes (MC1) is often due to vertebral body endplate pain, which is linked to abnormal neurite outgrowth in the vertebral body and adjacent endplate. The aim of this study was to understand the role of MC1 bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) in neurite outgrowth. BMSCs can produce neurotrophic factors, which have been shown to be pro-fibrotic in MC1, and expand in the perivascular space where sensory vertebral nerves are located. The study involved the exploration of the BMSC transcriptome in MC1, co-culture of MC1 BMSCs with the neuroblastoma cell line SH-SY5Y, analysis of supernatant cytokines, and analysis of gene expression changes in co-cultured SH-SY5Y. Transcriptomic analysis revealed upregulated brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) signaling-related pathways. Co-cultures of MC1 BMSCs with SH-SY5Y cells resulted in increased neurite sprouting compared to co-cultures with control BMSCs. The concentration of BDNF and other cytokines supporting neuron growth was increased in MC1 vs. control BMSC co-culture supernatants. Taken together, these findings show that MC1 BMSCs provide strong pro-neurotrophic cues to nearby neurons and could be a relevant disease-modifying treatment target., Competing Interests: SD was employed by Aclarion. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Mengis, Herger, Heggli, Devan, Spirig, Laux, Brunner, Farshad, Distler and Dudli.)

Modic type 1 changes (MC1) are vertebral bone marrow lesions and associate with low back pain. Increased serum C-reactive protein (CRP) has inconsistently been associated with MC1. We aimed to provide evidence for the role of CRP in the tissue pathophysiology of MC1 bone marrow. From 13 MC1 patients undergoing spinal fusion at MC1 levels, vertebral bone marrow aspirates from MC1 and intrapatient control bone marrow were taken. Bone marrow CRP, interleukin (IL)-1, and IL-6 were measured with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays; lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was measured with a colorimetric assay. CRP, IL-1, and IL-6 were compared between MC1 and control bone marrow. Bone marrow CRP was correlated with blood CRP and with bone marrow IL-1, IL-6, and LDH. CRP expression by marrow cells was measured with a polymerase chain reaction. Increased CRP in MC1 bone marrow (mean difference: +0.22 mg CRP/g, 95% confidence interval [CI] [-0.04, 0.47], p = 0.088) correlated with blood CRP (r = 0.69, p = 0.018), with bone marrow IL-1β (ρ = 0.52, p = 0.029) and IL-6 (ρ = 0.51, p = 0.031). Marrow cells did not express CRP. Increased LDH in MC1 bone marrow (143.1%, 95% CI [110.7%, 175.4%], p = 0.014) indicated necrosis. A blood CRP threshold of 3.2 mg/L detected with 100% accuracy increased CRP in MC1 bone marrow. In conclusion, the association of CRP with inflammatory and necrotic changes in MC1 bone marrow provides evidence for a pathophysiological role of CRP in MC1 bone marrow., (© 2022 The Authors. Journal of Orthopaedic Research ® published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Orthopaedic Research Society.)

Background: Vertebral endplate signal intensity changes visualized by magnetic resonance imaging termed Modic changes (MC) are highly prevalent in low back pain patients. Interconvertibility between the three MC subtypes (MC1, MC2, MC3) suggests different pathological stages. Histologically, granulation tissue, fibrosis, and bone marrow edema are signs of inflammation in MC1 and MC2. However, different inflammatory infiltrates and amount of fatty marrow suggest distinct inflammatory processes in MC2., Aims: The aims of this study were to investigate (i) the degree of bony (BEP) and cartilage endplate (CEP) degeneration in MC2, (ii) to identify inflammatory MC2 pathomechanisms, and (iii) to show that these marrow changes correlate with severity of endplate degeneration., Methods: Pairs of axial biopsies ( n  = 58) spanning the entire vertebral body including both CEPs were collected from human cadaveric vertebrae with MC2. From one biopsy, the bone marrow directly adjacent to the CEP was analyzed with mass spectrometry. Differentially expressed proteins (DEPs) between MC2 and control were identified and bioinformatic enrichment analysis was performed. The other biopsy was processed for paraffin histology and BEP/CEP degenerations were scored. Endplate scores were correlated with DEPs., Results: Endplates from MC2 were significantly more degenerated. Proteomic analysis revealed an activated complement system, increased expression of extracellular matrix proteins, angiogenic, and neurogenic factors in MC2 marrow. Endplate scores correlated with upregulated complement and neurogenic proteins., Discussion: The inflammatory pathomechanisms in MC2 comprises activation of the complement system. Concurrent inflammation, fibrosis, angiogenesis, and neurogenesis indicate that MC2 is a chronic inflammation. Correlation of endplate damage with complement and neurogenic proteins suggest that complement system activation and neoinnervation may be linked to endplate damage. The endplate-near marrow is the pathomechanistic site, because MC2 occur at locations with more endplate degeneration., Conclusion: MC2 are fibroinflammatory changes with complement system involvement which occur adjacent to damaged endplates., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2022 The Authors. JOR Spine published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Orthopaedic Research Society.)

Extensive extracellular matrix production and increased cell-matrix adhesion by bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) are hallmarks of fibrotic alterations in the vertebral bone marrow known as Modic type 1 changes (MC1). MC1 are associated with non-specific chronic low-back pain. To identify treatment targets for MC1, in vitro studies using patient BMSCs are important to reveal pathological mechanisms. For the culture of BMSCs, fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2) is widely used. However, FGF2 has been shown to suppress matrix synthesis in various stromal cell populations. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether FGF2 affected the in vitro study of the fibrotic pathomechanisms of MC1-derived BMSCs. Transcriptomic changes and changes in cell-matrix adhesion of MC1-derived BMSCs were compared to intra-patient control BMSCs in response to FGF2. RNA sequencing and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction revealed that pro-fibrotic genes and pathways were not detectable in MC1-derived BMSCs when cultured in the presence of FGF2. In addition, significantly increased cell-matrix adhesion of MC1-derived BMSCs was abolished in the presence of FGF2. In conclusion, the data demonstrated that FGF2 overrides key pro-fibrotic features of MC1 BMSCs in vitro. Usage of FGF2-supplemented media in studies of fibrotic mechanisms should be critically evaluated as it could override normally dominant biological and biophysical cues.

Low back pain (LBP) has been among the leading causes of disability for the past 30 years. This highlights the need for improvement in LBP management. Many clinical trials focus on developing treatments against degenerative disc disease (DDD). The multifactorial etiology of DDD and associated risk factors lead to a heterogeneous patient population. It comes as no surprise that the outcomes of clinical trials on intradiscal mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) injections for patients with DDD are inconsistent. Intradiscal MSC injections have demonstrated substantial pain relief and significant disability-related improvements, yet they have failed to regenerate the intervertebral disc (IVD). Increasing evidence suggests that the positive outcomes in clinical trials might be attributed to the immunomodulatory potential of MSCs rather than to their regenerative properties. Therefore, patient stratification for inflammatory DDD phenotypes may (i) better serve the mechanisms of action of MSCs and (ii) increase the treatment effect. Modic type 1 changes-pathologic inflammatory, fibrotic changes in the vertebral bone marrow-are frequently observed adjacent to degenerated IVDs in chronic LBP patients and represent a clinically distinct subpopulation of patients with DDD. This review discusses whether degenerated IVDs of patients with Modic type 1 changes should be treated with an intradiscal MSC injection.

Modic type 1 changes (MC1) are painful vertebral bone marrow lesions frequently found in patients suffering from chronic low-back pain. Marrow fibrosis is a hallmark of MC1. Bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) are key players in other fibrotic bone marrow pathologies, yet their role in MC1 is unknown. The present study aimed to characterise MC1 BMSCs and hypothesised a pro-fibrotic role of BMSCs in MC1. BMSCs were isolated from patients undergoing lumbar spinal fusion from MC1 and adjacent control vertebrae. Frequency of colony-forming unit fibroblast (CFU-F), expression of stem cell surface markers, differentiation capacity, transcriptome, matrix adhesion, cell contractility as well as expression of pro-collagen type I alpha 1, α-smooth muscle actin, integrins and focal adhesion kinase (FAK) were compared. More CFU-F and increased expression of C-X-C-motif-chemokine 12 were found in MC1 BMSCs, possibly indicating overrepresentation of a perisinusoidal BMSC population. RNA sequencing analysis showed enrichment in extracellular matrix proteins and fibrosis-related signalling genes. Increases in pro-collagen type I alpha 1 expression, cell adhesion, cell contractility and phosphorylation of FAK provided further evidence for their pro-fibrotic phenotype. Moreover, a leptin receptor high expressing (LEPRhigh) BMSC population was identified that differentiated under transforming growth factor beta 1 stimulation into myofibroblasts in MC1 but not in control BMSCs. In conclusion, pro-fibrotic changes in MC1 BMSCs and a LEPRhigh MC1 BMSC subpopulation susceptible to myofibroblast differentiation were found. Fibrosis is a hallmark of MC1 and a potential therapeutic target. A causal link between the pro-fibrotic phenotype and clinical characteristics needs to be demonstrated.

This paper examines interest-parity conditions that arguably held as regards the investment demand for bills of exchange during the classical gold standard (1880-1914). Contemporaneous guides to the foreign exchanges report that close connections between the exchange and discount rates arose mainly with bills traded in London and the major financial centres on the European continent. As implied by the interest-parity condition, and in particular when future exchange-rate movements were covered by a suitable long-bill transaction, weekly data do suggest that between Paris, Amsterdam, Berlin, Brussels, and London, the return from discounting bills of exchange in the local money market was roughly equivalent to the return from investing in foreign currency bills., Competing Interests: Not applicable.The author declares that he has no competing interests.