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Abstract Background Senegal has made significant progress in reducing the burden of malaria, but transmission remains highly heterogeneous, with specific population subgroups likely at higher risk. Consultations with the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) and a review of available data identified nomadic pastoralists, gold miners, and Koranic school students as potential high-risk populations (HRPs). This study aimed to evaluate whether these populations are at higher risk of malaria and better characterize their exposure patterns to inform the design of targeted intervention strategies. Methods A mixed-methods study was conducted in the districts of Ranérou, Kaolack, and Saraya between November 2020 and December 2021. A formative assessment including key informant interviews (KII) and focus group discussions (FGD) was conducted with non-HRP and HRP members (nomadic pastoralists, gold miners, Koranic school students). A health facility-based case–control study was then conducted in nine health facilities across the three districts. 501 confirmed malaria cases and 1002 non-malaria controls were frequency matched by age and sex with a ratio of 1:2. A standardized questionnaire was administered to collect sociodemographic information, including occupation, use of malaria prevention measures, mosquito exposure, and travel history. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify malaria risk factors. Results KIIs and FGDs indicated that nomadic pastoralists, gold miners and Koranic school students have high exposure to mosquito bites through outdoor sleeping, spending time outside at night and sleeping in informal structures, with important gaps in the coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and limited access to health services. Compared to controls, cases had higher odds of being a nomadic pastoralist (odds ratio (OR) 4.67 95% CI 1.96–11.11) or gold miner (OR 1.92 95% CI 1.20–3.07). No evidence was found of an association with being a Koranic school student (OR 1.39 95% CI 0.80–2.39). Conclusions Nomadic pastoralists and gold miners in the study areas are at higher risk of malaria. Targeted interventions are needed to cover gaps in malaria prevention coverage and access to health services.

Abstract Background Ethiopia continues to grapple with a persistent malaria burden, characterized by ongoing transmission and recurrent outbreaks. Human behavior influences both malaria exposure and the effectiveness of vector interventions, complicating malaria control efforts. Implementing tailored strategies that account for the complex interplay between human activities and vector behavior remains a challenge in both high- and low-transmission areas in Ethiopia, particularly for vulnerable highland populations and temporary labor migrants, due to lack of data. The aim of this study was to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of human—mosquito interactions and evaluate the effectiveness and suitability of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in settings involving lowland resident populations, seasonal migrant workers and highland communities. Methods Concurrent human and vector behavior data were collected from high-transmission lowlands (residents and temporary migrant workers) and vulnerable highlands populations. Hourly human behavior observations (HBOs), which examined LLIN use, indoor versus outdoor human presence and sleeping patterns, were paired in a crossover design with mosquito sampling using US Centers for Disease Control light traps (CDC LT) as a proxy for mosquito biting behavior. The study was conducted during the peak (October–December 2022) and minor (March–May 2023) malaria transmission seasons (‘peak’ and ‘minor’) for a total of 368 nights. In the highlands, four villages consisting of eight households per village were selected for surveillance; in the lowlands, four villages consisting of two resident villages and two farm sites with migrant workers, with eight households/structures per village or farm, were used for data collection. CDC LT and HBO data were integrated to evaluate HBO-adjusted human biting rates (HBO-adjusted HBR) of Anopheles mosquitoes. Results In the highland villages, residents predominantly engaged in indoor activities, with their peak activity overlapping with the peak biting hours (1800-2200 hours). A substantial proportion of inhabitants slept indoors without LLINs in the peak and minor seasons (42.8% and 39.2%, respectively). Highland residents were significantly more exposed to malaria vectors indoors (88.4% peak, 88.6% minor) than outdoors during both transmission seasons. In lowland villages, both resident and seasonal migrant worker populations exhibited predominantly outdoor activity, particularly during peak biting hours (1800-2300 hours). Both residents and temporary migrants were significantly more exposed to Anopheles mosquitoes outdoors (resident: 65.0% peak, 67.1% minor; migrant: 70.5% peak, 80.0% minor) than indoors during both transmission seasons. LLIN usage was minimal and offered limited protection, with < 16.63% of person-time spent under nets by resident populations and 10.7% by migrant workers. Conclusions Malaria control in Ethiopia requires context-specific strategies tailored to diverse ecological settings that consider the impact of human behavior on exposure to Anopheles mosquitoes. Limited LLIN effectiveness, human activities coinciding with peak biting times and minimal LLIN usage create significant protection gaps. Comprehensive control necessitates supplemental tools addressing exposure in all locations and times. In the Ethiopian highlands, where indoor activities predominate, increased LLIN usage combined with targeted indoor residual spraying could reduce transmission. In lowland areas, both residents and seasonal migrant workers face relatively higher outdoor exposure risks, requiring additional measures, such as topical and spatial repellents. We recommend implementing data-driven, hyperlocal approaches based on specific human—vector interactions to enhance malaria control effectiveness across the Ethiopian highlands and lowlands. Graphical Abstract

Summary: Background: The standard malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and newer ultra-sensitive RDT (uRDT) target Plasmodium falciparum histidine rich protein-2 (HRP2), which persists post-treatment. The duration of test positivity has not previously been studied in a low transmission setting. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal cohort study in a low transmission setting in Namibia. RDT-positive individuals identified through passive and active case detection were treated and followed weekly for testing by RDT and uRDT, HRP2 quantification, quantitative PCR (qPCR) of parasitemia, and quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) of gametocytemia, until RDT and uRDT were negative for two consecutive weeks. Determinants of persistent positivity were identified using Cox proportional hazards models. Findings: Among 137 participants with complete follow-up and no evidence of resurgence during follow-up, median duration of positivity was 42 days (range: 3−98 range) for RDT, compared to 67 days (range 12–105) for uRDT. In a sub-analysis of those with laboratory data before treatment (n = 60), drug resistance did not explain persistent positivity. Younger age (

Abstract Background The protective effectiveness of vector control in malaria relies on how the implemented tools overlap with mosquito species-specific compositions and bionomic traits. In Ethiopia, targeted entomological data enabling strategic decision-making are lacking around high-risk migrant worker camps in the lowlands and resident communities in the highlands—resulting in suboptimal malaria control strategies for both populations. This study investigates spatial and temporal mosquito behavior, generating baseline evidence that will improve malaria control for both migrant workers in the lowlands and their home communities in the highlands. Methods Hourly Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light trap collections were performed indoors and outdoors during the peak (October to December 2022) and minor (March to May 2023) malaria transmission seasons. These seasons coincide with the post-long rain and post-short rain seasons, respectively. Eight resident households were sampled from each of four villages in the highlands and eight households/farm structures on and near farms in four villages in the lowlands. The sampling occurred between 18:00 and 06:00. Spatiotemporal vector behaviors and hourly indoor and outdoor mosquito capture rates, used as a proxy for human biting rates, were calculated for overall catches and for individual species. Adult mosquitoes were identified using morphological keys, and a subset of samples were confirmed to species by sequencing ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer region 2 (ITS2) and/or mitochondrial DNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (Cox1). Results In the highlands, 4697 Anopheles mosquitoes belonging to 13 morphologically identified species were collected. The predominant species of Anopheles identified in the highlands was An. gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) (n = 1970, 41.9%), followed by An. demeilloni (n = 1133, 24.1%) and An. cinereus (n = 520, 11.0%). In the lowland villages, 3220 mosquitoes belonging to 18 morphological species were collected. Anopheles gambiae s.l. (n = 1190, 36.9%), An. pretoriensis (n = 899, 27.9%), and An. demeilloni (n = 564, 17.5%) were the predominant species. A total of 20 species were identified molecularly, of which three could not be identified to species through comparison with published sequences. In highland villages, the indoor Anopheles mosquito capture rate was much greater than the outdoor rate. This trend reversed in the lowlands, where the rate of outdoor captures was greater than the indoor rate. In both highlands and lowlands, Anopheles mosquitoes showed early biting activities in the evening, which peaked between 18:00 and 21:00, for both indoor and outdoor locations. Conclusions The high diversity of Anopheles vectors and their variable behaviors result in a dynamic and resilient transmission system impacting both exposure to infectious bites and intervention effectiveness. This creates gaps in protection allowing malaria transmission to persist. To achieve optimal control, one-size-fits-all strategies must be abandoned, and interventions should be tailored to the diverse spatiotemporal behaviors of different mosquito populations. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Cattle herders and agricultural workers have been identified has key high-risk populations for malaria in northern Namibia. Population size estimates for these groups are lacking but are important for planning, monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of targeted strategies towards malaria elimination in the region. In this analysis, we extend population size estimation methods routinely used in HIV research, specifically social mapping and multiple source capture-recapture, to the context of malaria to estimate how many cattle herders and agricultural workers lived in two regions of northern Namibia over the course of the 2019–2020 malaria season. Both methods estimated two to three times more agricultural workers than cattle herders but size estimates based on the multiple source capture-recapture method were two to three times greater than the mapping-based, highlighting important methodological considerations to apply such methods to these highly mobile populations. In particular, we compared open versus closed populations assumptions for the capture-recapture method and assessed the impact of sensitivity analyses on the procedure to link records across multiple data sources on population size estimates. Our results are important for national control programs to target their resources and consider integrating routine population size estimation of high risk populations in their surveillance activities.

Abstract Background Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) that rely on the detection of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) have become key tools for diagnosing P. falciparum infection. The utility of RDTs can be limited by PfHRP2 persistence, however it can be a potential benefit in low transmission settings where detection of persistent PfHRP2 using newer ultra-sensitive PfHRP2 based RDTs can serve as a surveillance tool to identify recent exposure. Better understanding of the dynamics of PfHRP2 over the course of a malaria infection can inform optimal use of RDTs. Methods A previously published mathematical model was refined to mimic the production and decay of PfHRP2 during a malaria infection. Data from 15 individuals from volunteer infection studies were used to update the original model and estimate key model parameters. The refined model was applied to a cohort of patients from Namibia who received treatment for clinical malaria infection for whom longitudinal PfHRP2 concentrations were measured. Results The refinement of the PfHRP2 dynamic model indicated that in malaria naïve hosts, P. falciparum parasites of the 3D7 strain produce 33.6 × 10−15 g (95% CI 25.0–42.1 × 10−15 g) of PfHRP2 in vivo per parasite replication cycle, with an elimination half-life of 1.67 days (95% CI 1.11–3.40 days). The refined model included these updated parameters and incorporated individualized body fluid volume calculations, which improved predictive accuracy when compared to the original model. The performance of the model in predicting clearance of PfHRP2 post treatment in clinical samples from six adults with P. falciparum infection in Namibia improved when using a longer elimination half-life of 4.5 days, with 14% to 67% of observations for each individual within the predicted range. Conclusions The updated mathematical model can predict the growth and clearance of PfHRP2 during the production and decay of a mono-infection with P. falciparum, increasing the understanding of PfHRP2 antigen dynamics. This model can guide the optimal use of PfHRP2-based RDTs for reliable diagnosis of P. falciparum infection and re-infection in endemic settings, but also for malaria surveillance and elimination programmes in low transmission areas.

Abstract Background In Namibia, as in many malaria elimination settings, reactive case detection (RACD), or malaria testing and treatment around index cases, is a standard intervention. Reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA), or treatment without testing, and reactive focal vector control (RAVC) in the form of indoor residual spraying, are alternative or adjunctive interventions, but there are limited data regarding their community acceptability. Methods A parent trial aimed to compare the effectiveness of rfMDA versus RACD, RAVC versus no RAVC, and rfMDA + RAVC versus RACD only. To assess acceptability of these interventions, a mixed-methods study was conducted using key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) in three rounds (pre-trial and in years 1 and 2 of the trial), and an endline survey. Results In total, 17 KIIs, 49 FGDs were conducted with 449 people over three annual rounds of qualitative data collection. Pre-trial, community members more accurately predicted the level of community acceptability than key stakeholders. Throughout the trial, key participant motivators included: malaria risk perception, access to free community-based healthcare and IRS, and community education by respectful study teams. RACD or rfMDA were offered to 1372 and 8948 individuals in years 1 and 2, respectively, and refusal rates were low (

Abstract Despite huge investments and implementation of effective interventions for malaria, progress has stalled, with transmission being increasingly localized among difficult-to-reach populations and outdoor-biting vectors. Targeting difficult pockets of transmission will require the development of tailored and targeted approaches suited to local context, drawing from insights close to the frontlines. Districts are best placed to develop tailored, locally appropriate approaches. We propose a reorganization of how malaria services are delivered. Firstly, enabling district health officers to serve as conduits between technical experts in national malaria control programmes and local community leaders with knowledge specific to local, at-risk populations; secondly, empowering district health teams to make malaria control decisions. This is a radical shift that requires the national programme to cede some control. Shifting towards a district or provincial level approach will necessitate deliberate planning, and repeated, careful assessment, starting with piloting and learning through experience. Donors will need to alter current practice, allowing for flexible funding to be controlled at sub-national levels, and to mix finances between case management, vector control and surveillance, monitoring and evaluation. System-wide changes proposed are challenging but may be necessary to overcome stalled progress in malaria control and elimination and introduce targeted interventions tailored to the needs of diverse malaria affected populations.

Summary: Background: Due to challenges in measuring changes in malaria at low transmission, serology is increasingly being used to complement clinical and parasitological surveillance. Longitudinal studies have shown that serological markers, such as Etramp5.Ag1, can reflect spatio-temporal differences in malaria transmission. However, these markers have yet to be used as endpoints in intervention trials. Methods: Based on data from a 2017 cluster randomised trial conducted in Zambezi Region, Namibia, evaluating the effectiveness of reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) and reactive vector control (RAVC), this study conducted a secondary analysis comparing antibody responses between intervention arms as trial endpoints. Antibody responses were measured on a multiplex immunoassay, using a panel of eight serological markers of Plasmodium falciparum infection - Etramp5.Ag1, GEXP18, HSP40.Ag1, Rh2.2030, EBA175, PfMSP119, PfAMA1, and PfGLURP.R2. Findings: Reductions in sero-prevalence to antigens Etramp.Ag1, PfMSP119, Rh2.2030, and PfAMA1 were observed in study arms combining rfMDA and RAVC, but only effects for Etramp5.Ag1 were statistically significant. Etramp5.Ag1 sero-prevalence was significantly lower in all intervention arms. Compared to the reference arms, adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) for Etramp5.Ag1 was 0.78 (95%CI 0.65 – 0.91, p = 0.0007) in the rfMDA arms and 0.79 (95%CI 0.67 – 0.92, p = 0.001) in the RAVC arms. For the combined rfMDA plus RAVC intervention, aPR was 0.59 (95%CI 0.46 – 0.76, p < 0.0001). Significant reductions were also observed based on continuous antibody responses. Sero-prevalence as an endpoint was found to achieve higher study power (99.9% power to detect a 50% reduction in prevalence) compared to quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) prevalence (72.9% power to detect a 50% reduction in prevalence). Interpretation: While the observed relative reduction in qPCR prevalence in the study was greater than serology, the use of serological endpoints to evaluate trial outcomes measured effect size with improved precision and study power. Serology has clear application in cluster randomised trials, particularly in settings where measuring clinical incidence or infection is less reliable due to seasonal fluctuations, limitations in health care seeking, or incomplete testing and reporting. Funding: This study was supported by Novartis Foundation (A122666), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1160129), and the Horchow Family Fund (5,300,375,400).

Abstract Background Subpatent malaria infections, or low-density infections below the detection threshold of microscopy or standard rapid diagnostic testing (RDT), can perpetuate persistent transmission and, therefore, may be a barrier for countries like Namibia that are pursuing malaria elimination. This potential burden in Namibia has not been well characterized. Methods Using a two-stage cluster sampling, cross-sectional design, subjects of all age were enrolled during the end of the 2015 malaria transmission season in Zambezi region, located in northeast Namibia. Malaria RDTs were performed with subsequent gold standard testing by loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) using dried blood spots. Infection prevalence was measured and the diagnostic accuracy of RDT calculated. Relationships between recent fever, demographics, epidemiological factors, and infection were assessed. Results Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection was low: 0.8% (16/1919) by RDT and 2.2% (43/1919) by LAMP. All but one LAMP-positive infection was RDT-negative. Using LAMP as gold standard, the sensitivity and specificity of RDT were 2.3% and 99.2%, respectively. Compared to LAMP-negative infections, a higher portion LAMP-positive infections were associated with fever (45.2% vs. 30.4%, p = 0.04), though 55% of infections were not associated with fever. Agricultural occupations and cattle herding were significantly associated with LAMP-detectable infection (Adjusted ORs 5.02, 95% CI 1.77–14.23, and 11.82, 95% CI 1.06–131.81, respectively), while gender, travel, bed net use, and indoor residual spray coverage were not. Conclusions This study presents results from the first large-scale malaria cross-sectional survey from Namibia using molecular testing to characterize subpatent infections. Findings suggest that fever history and standard RDTs are not useful to address this burden. Achievement of malaria elimination may require active case detection using more sensitive point-of-care diagnostics or presumptive treatment and targeted to high-risk groups.