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An integrated forest management optimization model was developed to calculate potential spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens) effects on forest and wood product carbon (C) from 2007 to 2057 and to evaluate potential C sequestration benefits of alternative management strategies (salvage, biological insecticide application). The model was tested using simulated spruce budworm outbreaks on a 210000 ha intensively managed forest in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. Under a severe spruce budworm outbreak scenario from 2007 to 2020, harvest volume and forest and wood product C storage in 2027 were projected to be reduced by 1.34 Mm3, 1.48 Mt, and 0.26 Mt, respectively, compared with the levels under no defoliation. Under the same severe outbreak scenario, implementation of salvage and harvest replanning plus a biological insecticide applied aerially to 40% of susceptible forest area, reduced harvest, forest C, and wood product C impacts by 73%, 41%, and 56%, respectively. Extrapolation of these results to all of New Brunswick suggests that a future severe spruce budworm outbreak could effectively increase total provincial annual C emissions (all sources) by up to 40%, on average, over the next 20 years. This modeling approach can be used to identify to what extent insecticide application, as a forest-C-offset project, could result in additional C storage than without forest and pest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) severely defoliates balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) and spruce (Picea spp.) in large periodic outbreaks and represents one of Canada’s most damaging and widespread forest insects. We present a modeling framework that integrates stand-level spruce budworm volume impacts used in the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBWDSS) into an industrial-scale timber supply model for the 209 000 ha Black Brook District in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. This approach uses linear optimization of harvest scheduling, salvage, and insecticide application to minimize volume reduction. One hundred and ninety-five scenarios were simulated, including normal and severe spruce budworm outbreaks, beginning in 2002, with combinations of varying insecticide efficacy, timing, and spatial extent of protection. After simulated severe defoliation from 2007 to 2016, maximum harvest reductions of 35% were predicted for a normal outbreak for the 2012–2016 period, and 46% for a severe outbreak for the 2017–2021 period; these impacts were reduced to 25% and 34% using re-optimized harvest scheduling and salvage. Results suggest that combined optimized salvage and harvest rescheduling could reduce future harvest reductions by up to 12%. Spatial optimization of protected areas gave similar results to those obtained using protection priority assignments based on marginal stand-level volume reduction in the SBWDSS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) has greatly improved the spatial resolution and accuracy of operational forest inventories. However, a cost-effective method to impute species-specific tree-level inventory is needed, to be used as input to tree or stand growth models to project single-point-in-time LiDAR estimates. We evaluated a method to match stand structural variables estimated from LiDAR to those in a library of over 5,500 sample plot measurements to impute tree lists for LiDAR grid cells across 83,000 ha of spruce (Piceasp.) plantations. Matches were determined based on planted species and minimum sum of squared difference between 6 inventory variables. Forest inventory variables obtained by the plot matches were highly correlated (r= 0.91–0.99) with those measured on 98 validation plots. Basal area distributions derived from plot matching were statistically equivalent to those observed on the validation plots 86% of the time (α = 0.05). When we aggregated the predictions for all validation plots, there was minimal difference between predicted and actual basal area distributions by planted species and species compositions were similar. Plot matching is a valid method to impute tree lists for LiDAR cells that combine the wealth of existing plot data with high resolution LiDAR-derived variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the potential economic impacts of future spruce budworm (SBW) ( (Clemens)) outbreaks on 2.8 million hectares of Crown forest land in New Brunswick by coupling an advanced Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) model with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. A total of 16 alternative scenarios were evaluated, including two SBW outbreak severities (moderate versus severe), four SBW control program levels (protecting 0%, 10%, 20%, and 40% of susceptible Crown land forest area), and two pest management strategies ('without' versus 'with' replanning harvest scheduling and salvage). The 'without' replanning harvest scheduling and salvage strategy findings indicated that, under uncontrolled moderate and severe SBW outbreaks, total output in the New Brunswick economy over the 2012-2041 period would decline in present-value terms by CDN$3.3 billion and $4.7 billion, respectively. SBW control via aerial spraying was shown to reduce the negative impacts on output by up to 66% when protecting 40% of susceptible area. Combining SBW control with replanning harvest scheduling and salvage strategy under moderate and severe outbreaks would reduce the negative impacts on output by a further 1%-18% depending on the level of control implemented. These findings can help forest managers assess the direct and indirect economic effects of forest pest disturbances on regional economies and can also be used together with other sustainable forest management indicators to help broaden the scope of SBW and other forest pest management decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs a benefit-cost analysis framework to estimate market and non-market benefits and costs of controlling future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks on Crown forest lands in New Brunswick, Canada. We used: (i) an advanced timber supply model to project potential timber volume saved, timber value benefits, and costs of pest control efforts; and (ii) a recent contingent valuation method analysis that evaluated non-market benefits (i.e., changes in recreation opportunities and existence values) of controlling future spruce budworm outbreaks in the Province. A total of six alternative scenarios were evaluated, including two uncontrolled future budworm outbreak severities (moderate vs. severe) and, for each severity, three control program levels (protecting 10%, 20%, or 40% of the susceptible Crown land forest area). The economic criteria used to evaluate each scenario included benefit-cost ratios and net present values. Under severe outbreak conditions, results indicated that the highest benefit-cost ratio (4.04) occurred when protecting 10% (284,000 ha) of the susceptible area, and the highest net present value ($111 M) occurred when protecting 20% (568,000 ha) of the susceptible area. Under moderate outbreak conditions, the highest benefit-cost ratio (3.24) and net present value ($58.7 M) occurred when protecting 10% (284,000 ha) of the susceptible area. Inclusion of non-market values generally increased the benefit-cost ratios and net present values of the control programs, and in some cases, led to higher levels of control being supported. Results of this study highlight the importance of including non-market values into the decision making process of forest pest management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Silvicultural treatments recommended to reduce damage by spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens) include reducing balsam fir ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) abundance and age and increasing spruce ( Picea spp.) and hardwood content. To evaluate the effect of these measures on forest timber supply, we assessed stand characteristics, disturbance history, and timber supply for an intensively managed eastern Quebec forest from 1985 to 2004, encompassing a major SBW outbreak. During this time, mean stand age declined from 55 to 51 years, and proportions of areas in balsam fir stands declined (42% to 27%), spruce-fir stabilized (12% to 11%), and mixedwoods increased (32% to 52%). We estimated forest vulnerability using softwood volume reductions following simulated outbreak scenarios of different severity (low, moderate, and high) and different effects of hardwood content in reducing spruce-fir defoliation. Volume reductions for outbreaks simulated to begin in either 1985 or 2004 were similar, ranging from 15%-46% (no hardwood effect in reducing defoliation) to 13%-39% (given a maximum hardwood content effect) for light and severe outbreaks, respectively. Considering the net detrimental effect of increased hardwood content on softwood timber supply, we question the dividends of promoting hardwoods and recommend increasing the combined use of plantations and weeding treatments to increase spruce content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a procedure to maximize carbon (C) sequestration and apply it to a 428 000 ha industrial forest management area in northern New Brunswick, Canada. Stand-specific C yield tables and C residency periods in harvested wood products were used as inputs to a linear programming model to maximize on- and off-site C sequestration in forest land. Five management scenarios were evaluated. A scenario that maximized on-site forest C sequestration for 80 years, respecting “business-as-usual” harvest constraints, projected an extra 3 t C·ha–1 across the forest management area compared with the business-as-usual scenario, with net C storage potential (forest C + forest C in products – emissions produced from decayed wood products) resulting in approximately 1 Mt C. A scenario to double softwood harvest led to a projected decrease in the forest C pool by approximately 5 t C·ha–1 from 2007 to 2082 and overall storage decrease of almost 2 Mt C from the base run. Other scenarios to increase or decrease harvest volumes by 10% resulted in overall C storage increases of 1.6 Mt C and almost 2.7 Mt C, respectively, above the base run. All scenarios resulted in net sinks of C after the 80 year simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]