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1. Cost-benefit analysis of ecosystem modelling to support fisheries management

Author

Holden, Matthew H., Plagányi, Eva E., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Campbell, Alexander B., Janes, Rachel, Lovett, Robyn A., Wickens, Montana, Adams, Matthew P., Botelho, Larissa Lubiana, Dichmont, Catherine M., Erm, Philip, Helmstedt, Kate J, Heneghan, Ryan F., Mendiolar, Manuela, Richardson, Anthony J., Rogers, Jacob G. D., Saunders, Kate, and Timms, Liam

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, 92D
Abstract

Mathematical and statistical models underlie many of the world's most important fisheries management decisions. Since the 19th century, difficulty calibrating and fitting such models has been used to justify the selection of simple, stationary, single-species models to aid tactical fisheries management decisions. Whereas these justifications are reasonable, it is imperative that we quantify the value of different levels of model complexity for supporting fisheries management, especially given a changing climate, where old methodologies may no longer perform as well as in the past. Here we argue that cost-benefit analysis is an ideal lens to assess the value of model complexity in fisheries management. While some studies have reported the benefits of model complexity in fisheries, modeling costs are rarely considered. In the absence of cost data in the literature, we report, as a starting point, relative costs of single-species stock assessment and marine ecosystem models from two Australian organizations. We found that costs varied by two orders of magnitude, and that ecosystem model costs increased with model complexity. Using these costs, we walk through a hypothetical example of cost-benefit analysis. The demonstration is intended to catalyze the reporting of modeling costs and benefits.

Published
2024
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2. Beyond expected values: Making environmental decisions using value of information analysis when measurement outcome matters

Author

Akinlotan, Morenikeji D., Warne, David J., Helmstedt, Kate J., Vollert, Sarah A., Chadès, Iadine, Heneghan, Ryan F., Xiao, Hui, and Adams, Matthew P.

Subjects
Statistics - Applications, Statistics - Methodology
Abstract

In ecological and environmental contexts, management actions must sometimes be chosen urgently. Value of information (VoI) analysis provides a quantitative toolkit for projecting the improved management outcomes expected after making additional measurements. However, traditional VoI analysis reports metrics as expected values (i.e. risk-neutral). This can be problematic because expected values hide uncertainties in projections. The true value of a measurement will only be known after the measurement's outcome is known, leaving large uncertainty in the measurement's value before it is performed. As a result, the expected value metrics produced in traditional VoI analysis may not align with the priorities of a risk-averse decision-maker who wants to avoid low-value measurement outcomes. In the present work, we introduce four new VoI metrics that can address a decision-maker's risk-aversion to different measurement outcomes. We demonstrate the benefits of the new metrics with two ecological case studies for which traditional VoI analysis has been previously applied. Using the new metrics, we also demonstrate a clear mathematical link between the often-separated environmental decision-making disciplines of VoI and optimal design of experiments. This mathematical link has the potential to catalyse future collaborations between ecologists and statisticians to work together to quantitatively address environmental decision-making questions of fundamental importance. Overall, the introduced VoI metrics complement existing metrics to provide decision-makers with a comprehensive view of the value of, and risks associated with, a proposed monitoring or measurement activity. This is critical for improved environmental outcomes when decisions must be urgently made., Comment: 53 pages, 3 figures

Published
2023
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5. Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

Author

Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Blanchard, Julia L, Coll, Marta, Du Pontavice, Hubert, Everett, Jason D, Guiet, Jerome, Heneghan, Ryan F, Maury, Olivier, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M, Tittensor, Derek P, and Lotze, Heike K

Subjects
Life Below Water, Climate Action, Life on Land
Abstract

Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region.

Published
2023

6. The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Cinner, Joshua E, Caldwell, Iain, Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L, Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D, Everett, Jason D, Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G, Heneghan, Ryan F, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Oliver, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M, Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P, Wamukota, Andrew, and Pollnac, Richard

Subjects
Climate Action, Zero Hunger
Abstract

Abstract: Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, and when they are, it is often at a national scale, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries. Our study reveals three key findings: First, we find that the overall potential losses to fisheries is higher than potential losses to agriculture, but there is substantial within-country variability. Second, while more than two-thirds of locations will bear a double burden of potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing a double burden. Third, lower socioeconomic status communities are more likely to experience potential impacts than higher socioeconomic status communities.

Published
2022

9. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Cinner, Joshua E, Caldwell, Iain R, Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L, Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D, Everett, Jason D, Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G, Heneghan, Ryan F, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M, Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P, Wamukota, Andrew, and Pollnac, Richard

Subjects
Climate Action, Zero Hunger, Agriculture, Climate Change, Fisheries, Indonesia, Madagascar
Abstract

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Published
2022

10. Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models

Author

Heneghan, Ryan F, Galbraith, Eric, Blanchard, Julia L, Harrison, Cheryl, Barrier, Nicolas, Bulman, Catherine, Cheung, William, Coll, Marta, Eddy, Tyler D, Erauskin-Extramiana, Maite, Everett, Jason D, Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Maury, Olivier, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M, du Pontavice, Hubert, Richardson, Anthony J, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Tai, Travis C, Volkholz, Jan, Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A, and Tittensor, Derek P

Subjects
Climatic change, Modelling, Fishery oceanography, Marine ecology, FishMIP, Structural uncertainty, Oceanography, Geology
Published
2021

12. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems.

Author

Tittensor, Derek P, Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl S, Heneghan, Ryan F, Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory L, Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William WL, Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P, Eddy, Tyler D, Everett, Jason D, Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A, Fulton, Elizabeth A, Galbraith, Eric D, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, John, Jasmin G, Link, Jason S, Lotze, Heike K, Maury, Olivier, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M, du Pontavice, Hubert, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony J, Shannon, Lynne, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A, and Blanchard, Julia L

Subjects
Climate-change ecology, Ecological modelling, Marine biology, Climate Action, Life Below Water, Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Environmental Science and Management
Abstract

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Published
2021

13. Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean

Author

Mason, Julia G, primary, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, additional, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, additional, Badhe, Renuka, additional, Morgante, Isabella, additional, Bianchi, Daniele, additional, Blanchard, Julia L, additional, Everett, Jason D, additional, Harrison, Cheryl S, additional, Heneghan, Ryan F, additional, Novaglio, Camilla, additional, and Petrik, Colleen M, additional

Published
2024
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14. The Past and Future of the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project.

Author

Novaglio, Camilla, Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Tittensor, Derek P., Eddy, Tyler D., Lotze, Heike K., Harrison, Cheryl S., Heneghan, Ryan F., Maury, Olivier, Ortega‐Cisneros, Kelly, Petrik, Colleen M., Roberts, Kelsey E., and Blanchard, Julia L.

Subjects
CLIMATE change adaptation, MARINE biology, FISHERIES, MARINE ecology, FISHERY management, MARINE resources conservation
Abstract

Climate change is increasingly affecting the world's ocean ecosystems, necessitating urgent guidance on adaptation strategies to limit or prevent catastrophic impacts. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) is a network and framework that provides standardised ensemble projections of the impacts of climate change and fisheries on ocean life and the benefits that it provides to people. Since its official launch in 2013 as a small, self‐organized project within the larger Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, the FishMIP community has grown substantially and contributed to key international policy processes, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report, and the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Biodiversity Assessment. While not without challenges, particularly around comparing heterogeneous ecosystem models, integrating fisheries scenarios, and standardising regional‐scale ecosystem models, FishMIP outputs are now being used across a variety of applications (e.g., climate change targets, fisheries management, marine conservation, Sustainable Development Goals). Over the next decade, FishMIP will focus on improving ecosystem model ensembles to provide more robust and policy‐relevant projections for different regions of the world under multiple climate and societal change scenarios, and continue to be open to a broad spectrum of marine ecosystem models and modelers. FishMIP also intends to enhance leadership diversity and capacity‐building to improve representation of early‐ and mid‐career researchers from under‐represented countries and ocean regions. As we look ahead, FishMIP aims to continue enhancing our understanding of how marine life and its contributions to people may change over the coming century at both global and regional scales. Plain Language Summary: The world's oceans are experiencing significant changes due to climate impacts, which are affecting marine ecosystems and fisheries. To address these challenges, the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was launched in 2013. FishMIP brings together scientists to develop standardised projections of how climate change and fishing activities will impact ocean life and the benefits people get from fisheries. Despite some difficulties in comparing different ecosystem models and integrating fisheries scenarios, FishMIP's outputs are now informing various policy areas such as setting climate targets, managing fisheries, food security, and conserving marine environments. Over the next 10 years, FishMIP plans to improve its model ensembles to provide more reliable projections for different regions under various climate and societal change scenarios. Additionally, FishMIP aims to increase diversity in leadership and capacity‐building to involve more researchers from under‐represented countries and regions. Looking forward, FishMIP will continue to foster a global community of ecosystem and climate modelers, to enhance our understanding of how marine ecosystems and their benefits to people might change in the future, both globally and locally. Key Points: There is an urgent need for policy to develop strategies to adapt to the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and their servicesThe Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project has contributed understanding of climate impacts on marine ecosystemsThe next 10 years will see the improved FishMIP ensemble model pushing the boundaries of the field and increasing policy‐relevant outputs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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15. Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean.

Author

Mason, Julia G., Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Palacios‐Abrantes, Juliano, Badhe, Renuka, Morgante, Isabella, Bianchi, Daniele, Blanchard, Julia L., Everett, Jason D., Harrison, Cheryl S., Heneghan, Ryan F., Novaglio, Camilla, and Petrik, Colleen M.

Subjects
MARINE resources, MARINE biology, GEOGRAPHICAL distribution of fishes, FISHERY closures, STRUCTURAL models, SEA ice, FISHERIES
Abstract

Emerging fishing activity due to melting ice and poleward species distribution shifts in the rapidly‐warming Arctic Ocean challenges transboundary management and requires proactive governance. A 2021 moratorium on commercial fishing in the Arctic high seas provides a 16‐year runway for improved scientific understanding. Given substantial knowledge gaps, characterizing areas of highest uncertainty is a key first step. Marine ecosystem model ensembles that project future fish distributions could inform management of future Arctic fisheries, but Arctic‐specific variation has not yet been examined for global ensembles. We use the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Intercomparison Project ensemble driven by two Earth System Models (ESMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) to illustrate the current state of and uncertainty among biomass projections for the Arctic Ocean over the duration of the moratorium. The models generally project biomass increases in more northern Arctic ecosystems and decreases in southern ecosystems, but wide intra‐model variation exceeds projection means in most cases. The two ESMs show opposite trends for the main environmental drivers. Therefore, these projections are currently insufficient to inform policy actions. Investment in sustained monitoring and improving modeling capacity, especially for sea ice dynamics, is urgently needed. Concurrently, it will be necessary to develop frameworks for making precautionary decisions under continued uncertainty. We conclude that researchers should be transparent about uncertainty, presenting these model projections not as a source of scientific "answers," but as bounding for plausible, policy‐relevant questions to assess trade‐offs and mitigate risks. Plain Language Summary: As the Arctic Ocean gets warmer, melting ice is opening up new opportunities for fishing. However, we don't know where fish will go and how they can be managed sustainably. An important first step is to figure out which unknowns we can solve quickly with more research, and what is so uncertain that we will have to make decisions without ideal information. In this paper, we looked at uncertainty in a set of global models that predict how fish populations might shift in the next 10–25 years. Overall, these models show that fish populations might increase in the northern parts of the Arctic while decreasing in the south. But the models make very different predictions, and some disagree on whether fish populations will increase or decrease in certain areas. A major source of uncertainty is how sea ice will change, and how ocean life will respond. Therefore, this is a priority area to invest in long‐term research and better models. Overall, these models are too uncertain to rely on for specific management decisions about Arctic fishing. Instead, scientists and decision makers can use them to shape more informed discussions about potential trade‐offs and risks of future fishing in the Arctic. Key Points: Variation and disagreement in marine ecosystem model projections are too high to be informative for near‐term Arctic fisheries managementInsufficient inclusion and knowledge of sea ice cover and sea ice productivity dynamics are major drivers of uncertaintyResearchers should be transparent about uncertainty and risk; present model projections as the basis for hypotheses and scenario planning [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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16. Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Author

Scherrer, Kim J. N., Harrison, Cheryl S., Heneghan, Ryan F., Galbraith, Eric, Bardeen, Charles G., Coupe, Joshua, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Lovenduski, Nicole S., Luna, August, Robock, Alan, Stevens, Jessica, Stevenson, Samantha, Toon, Owen B., and Xia, Lili

Published
2020

17. Cost–benefit analysis of ecosystem modeling to support fisheries management

Author

Holden, Matthew H., primary, Plagányi, Eva E., additional, Fulton, Elizabeth A., additional, Campbell, Alexander B., additional, Janes, Rachel, additional, Lovett, Robyn A., additional, Wickens, Montana, additional, Adams, Matthew P., additional, Botelho, Larissa Lubiana, additional, Dichmont, Catherine M., additional, Erm, Philip, additional, Helmstedt, Kate J., additional, Heneghan, Ryan F., additional, Mendiolar, Manuela, additional, Richardson, Anthony J., additional, Rogers, Jacob G. D., additional, Saunders, Kate, additional, and Timms, Liam, additional

Published
2024
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19. Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models

Author

Heneghan, Ryan F., Galbraith, Eric, Blanchard, Julia L., Harrison, Cheryl, Barrier, Nicolas, Bulman, Catherine, Cheung, William, Coll, Marta, Eddy, Tyler D., Erauskin-Extramiana, Maite, Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Maury, Olivier, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., du Pontavice, Hubert, Richardson, Anthony J., Steenbeek, Jeroen, Tai, Travis C., Volkholz, Jan, Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A., and Tittensor, Derek P.

Published
2021
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20. Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational–A Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories

Author

Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Steenbeek, Jeroen, Ortega, Pablo, Bernardello, Raffaele, Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Exarchou, Eleftheria, Fuster-Alonso, Alba, Heneghan, Ryan F., Julià Melis, Laura, Pennino, Maria Grazia, Rivas, David, Keenlyside, Noel, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Steenbeek, Jeroen, Ortega, Pablo, Bernardello, Raffaele, Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Exarchou, Eleftheria, Fuster-Alonso, Alba, Heneghan, Ryan F., Julià Melis, Laura, Pennino, Maria Grazia, Rivas, David, and Keenlyside, Noel

Abstract

Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System Models (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and to analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for marine ecosystems under potential scenarios of climate change. However, policy and commercial activities typically occur on seasonal-to-decadal time scales, a time span widely used in the global climate modeling community but where the skill level assessments of MEMs are in their infancy. This is mostly due to technical hurdles that prevent the global MEM community from performing large ensemble simulations with which to undergo systematic skill assessments. Here, we developed a novel distributed execution framework constructed of low-tech and freely available technologies to enable the systematic execution and analysis of linked ESM/MEM prediction ensembles. We apply this framework on the seasonal-to-decadal time scale, and assess how retrospective forecast uncertainty in an ensemble of initialized decadal ESM predictions affects a mechanistic and spatiotemporal explicit global trophodynamic MEM. Our results indicate that ESM internal variability has a relatively low impact on the MEM variability in comparison to the broad assumptions related to reconstructed fisheries. We also observe that the results are also sensitive to the ESM specificities. Our case study warrants further systematic explorations to disentangle the impacts of climate change, fisheries scenarios, MEM internal ecological hypotheses, and ESM variability. Most importantly, our case study demonstrates that a simple and free distributed execution framework has the potential to empower any modeling group with the fundamental capabilities to operationalize marine ecosystem modeling

Published
2024

21. BOATSv2: New ecological and economic features improve simulations of High Seas catch and effort.

Author

Guiet, Jerome, Bianchi, Daniele, Scherrer, Kim J. N., Heneghan, Ryan F., and Galbraith, Eric D.

Subjects
FISH growth, FISHERY management, MARINE ecology, FISHERIES, PELAGIC fishes, VARIABLE costs, FISH communities, FISH populations
Abstract

Climate change and industrial fishing have profound effects on marine ecosystems. Numerical models that capture key features of fish biomass dynamics and its interaction with fishing can help assess the biogeochemical and socio-economic consequences of these impacts. However, these models have significant biases and do not include many processes known to be relevant. Here we describe an updated version of the BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model for global fish and fisheries studies. The model incorporates new ecological and economic features designed to ameliorate prior biases. Recent improvements include reduction of fish growth rates in iron-limited high-nutrient low-chlorophyll regions, and the ability to simulate fisheries management. Novel features described here include a separation of pelagic and demersal fish communities to provide an expanded representation of ecological diversity, and spatially variable fishing costs and catchability for more realistic fishing effort dynamics. We also introduce a new set of observational diagnostics designed to evaluate the model beyond the boundary of large marine ecosystems. Following a multi-step parameter selection, the updated BOATSv2 model shows comparable performance to the original model in coastal ecosystems, accurately simulating catch, biomass and fishing effort. The revised model provides a markedly improved representation of fisheries in the High Seas, largely correcting the biases of the original version, including excessive high-sea catches and too rapid deepening of fishing effort over time. The updated model code is available for simulating both historical and future scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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25. Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

Author

Canada First Research Excellence Fund, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), European Commission, Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Blanchard, Julia L., Coll, Marta, Pontavice, Hubert du, Everett, Jason D., Guiet, Jerome, Heneghan, Ryan F., Maury, Olivier, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Tittensor, Derek P., Lotze, Heike K., Canada First Research Excellence Fund, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), European Commission, Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Blanchard, Julia L., Coll, Marta, Pontavice, Hubert du, Everett, Jason D., Guiet, Jerome, Heneghan, Ryan F., Maury, Olivier, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Tittensor, Derek P., and Lotze, Heike K.

Abstract

Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region

Published
2023

26. Data and code for 'Climate-driven zooplankton shifts cause large-scale declines in food quality for fish'

Author

Heneghan, Ryan F, Everett, Jason D, Blanchard, Julia L, Sykes, Patrick, and Richardson, Anthony J

Subjects
zooplankton, fish, climate change, marine ecosystems
Abstract

Zooplankton are the primary energy pathway from phytoplankton to fish. Yet, there is limited understanding about how climate change will modify zooplankton communities and the implications for marine food webs globally. Using a trait-based marine ecosystem model resolving key zooplankton groups, we find that future oceans, particularly in tropical regions, favour food webs increasingly dominated by carnivorous (chaetognaths, jellyfish and carnivorous copepods) and gelatinous filter-feeding zooplankton (larvaceans and salps) at the expense of omnivorous copepods and euphausiids. By providing a direct energetic pathway from small phytoplankton to fish, the rise of gelatinous filter-feeders largely offsets the increase in trophic steps between primary producers and fish from declining phytoplankton production and increases in carnivorous zooplankton. However, future fish communities experience reduced carrying capacity from falling primary production, and less nutritious food as environmental conditions increasingly favour gelatinous zooplankton, slightly exacerbating projected declines in small pelagic fish biomass in tropical regions by 2100.

Published
2023
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27. Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

Author

Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, primary, Blanchard, Julia L., additional, Coll, Marta, additional, Pontavice, Hubert Du, additional, Everett, Jason D., additional, Guiet, Jerome, additional, Heneghan, Ryan F., additional, Maury, Olivier, additional, Novaglio, Camilla, additional, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, additional, Petrik, Colleen M., additional, Tittensor, Derek P., additional, and Lotze, Heike K., additional

Published
2023
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29. The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Cinner, Joshua E., primary, Caldwell, Iain, additional, Thiault, Lauric, additional, Ben, John, additional, Blanchard, Julia L., additional, Coll, Marta, additional, Diedrich, Amy, additional, Eddy, Tyler D., additional, Everett, Jason D., additional, Folberth, Christian, additional, Gascuel, Didier, additional, Guiet, Jerome, additional, Gurney, Georgina G., additional, Heneghan, Ryan F., additional, Jägermeyr, Jonas, additional, Jiddawi, Narriman, additional, Lahari, Rachael, additional, Kuange, John, additional, Liu, Wenfeng, additional, Maury, Oliver, additional, Müller, Christoph, additional, Novaglio, Camilla, additional, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, additional, Petrik, Colleen M., additional, Rabearisoa, Ando, additional, Tittensor, Derek P., additional, Wamukota, Andrew, additional, and Pollnac, Richard, additional

Published
2022
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30. The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Cinner, Joshua E., Caldwell, Iain, Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L, Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G., Heneghan, Ryan F., Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P., Wamukota, Andrew, Pollnac, Richard, Cinner, Joshua E., Caldwell, Iain, Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L, Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G., Heneghan, Ryan F., Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P., Wamukota, Andrew, and Pollnac, Richard

Abstract

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, and when they are, it is often at a national scale, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries. Our study reveals three key findings: First, we find that the overall potential losses to fisheries is higher than potential losses to agriculture, but there is substantial within-country variability. Second, while more than two-thirds of locations will bear a double burden of potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing a double burden. Third, lower socioeconomic status communities are more likely to experience potential impacts than higher socioeconomic status communities.

Published
2022
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31. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Cinner, Joshua E., Caldwell, Iain R., Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L., Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G., Heneghan, Ryan F., Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P., Wamukota, Andrew, Pollnac, Richard, Cinner, Joshua E., Caldwell, Iain R., Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L., Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G., Heneghan, Ryan F., Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P., Wamukota, Andrew, and Pollnac, Richard

Abstract

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Published
2022
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32. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Australian Research Council, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Cinner, Joshua E., Caldwell, Iain R., Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L., Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G., Heneghan, Ryan F., Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachel, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P., Wamukota, Andrew, Pollnac, Richard, Australian Research Council, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Cinner, Joshua E., Caldwell, Iain R., Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L., Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G., Heneghan, Ryan F., Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachel, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P., Wamukota, Andrew, and Pollnac, Richard

Abstract

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic statu

Published
2022

34. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Author

Tittensor, Derek P., Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl S., Heneghan, Ryan F., Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory L., Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William W. L., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-salvador, Jose A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Galbraith, Eric D., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, John, Jasmin G., Link, Jason S., Lotze, Heike K., Maury, Olivier, Ortega-cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Du Pontavice, Hubert, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony J., Shannon, Lynne, Shin, Yunne-jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A., Blanchard, Julia L, Tittensor, Derek P., Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl S., Heneghan, Ryan F., Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory L., Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William W. L., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-salvador, Jose A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Galbraith, Eric D., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, John, Jasmin G., Link, Jason S., Lotze, Heike K., Maury, Olivier, Ortega-cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Du Pontavice, Hubert, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony J., Shannon, Lynne, Shin, Yunne-jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A., and Blanchard, Julia L

Abstract

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Published
2021
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35. The global ocean size spectrum from bacteria to whales

Author

Hatton, Ian A., Heneghan, Ryan F., Bar-On, Yinon M., Galbraith, Eric D., Hatton, Ian A., Heneghan, Ryan F., Bar-On, Yinon M., and Galbraith, Eric D.

Abstract

It has long been hypothesized that aquatic biomass is evenly distributed among logarithmic body mass size classes. Although this community structure has been observed regionally, mostly among plankton groups, its generality has never been formally tested across all marine life over the global ocean, nor have the impacts of humans on it been globally assessed. Here, we bring together data at the global scale to test the hypothesis from bacteria to whales. We find that biomass within most order of magnitude size classes is indeed remarkably constant, near 1 gigatonne (Gt) wet weight (1015 g), but bacteria and large marine mammals are markedly above and below this value, respectively. Furthermore, human impacts appear to have significantly truncated the upper one-third of the spectrum. This dramatic alteration to what is possibly life's largest-scale regularity underscores the global extent of human activities.

Published
2021

36. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Author

Jarislowsky Foundation, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Australian Research Council, European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), UK Research and Innovation, Global Challenges Research Fund, One Ocean Hub, Simons Foundation, Belmont Forum, BiodivERsA, Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ocean Frontier Institute, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), California Ocean Protection Council, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (US), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Tittensor, Derek P., Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl, Heneghan, Ryan F., Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory L., Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William W.L., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-Salvador, José A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Galbraith, Eric D., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, John, Jasmin G., Link, Jason S., Lotze, Heike K., Maury, Olivier, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Pontavice, Hubert du, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony J., Shannon, Lynne J., Shin, Yunne-Jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A., Blanchard, Julia L., Jarislowsky Foundation, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Australian Research Council, European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), UK Research and Innovation, Global Challenges Research Fund, One Ocean Hub, Simons Foundation, Belmont Forum, BiodivERsA, Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ocean Frontier Institute, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), California Ocean Protection Council, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (US), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Tittensor, Derek P., Novaglio, Camilla, Harrison, Cheryl, Heneghan, Ryan F., Barrier, Nicolas, Bianchi, Daniele, Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Britten, Gregory L., Büchner, Matthias, Cheung, William W.L., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-Salvador, José A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Galbraith, Eric D., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, John, Jasmin G., Link, Jason S., Lotze, Heike K., Maury, Olivier, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Pontavice, Hubert du, Rault, Jonathan, Richardson, Anthony J., Shannon, Lynne J., Shin, Yunne-Jai, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Stock, Charles A., and Blanchard, Julia L.

Abstract

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning

Published
2021

37. Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models

Author

Australian Research Council, European Commission, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Jarislowsky Foundation, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Heneghan, Ryan F., Galbraith, Eric D., Blanchard, Julia L., Harrison, Cheryl, Barrier, Nicolas, Bulman, Catherine, Cheung, William W.L., Coll, Marta, Eddy, Tyler D., Erauskin‐Extramiana, Maite, Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-Salvador, José A., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Maury, Olivier, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Pontavice, Hubert du, Richardson, Anthony J., Steenbeek, Jeroen, Tai, Travis C., Volkholz, Jan, Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A., Tittensor, Derek P., Australian Research Council, European Commission, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Jarislowsky Foundation, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Heneghan, Ryan F., Galbraith, Eric D., Blanchard, Julia L., Harrison, Cheryl, Barrier, Nicolas, Bulman, Catherine, Cheung, William W.L., Coll, Marta, Eddy, Tyler D., Erauskin‐Extramiana, Maite, Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-Salvador, José A., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Maury, Olivier, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Pontavice, Hubert du, Richardson, Anthony J., Steenbeek, Jeroen, Tai, Travis C., Volkholz, Jan, Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A., and Tittensor, Derek P.

Abstract

Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals and impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present these estimates vary widely. A better understanding of what drives this inter-model variation will improve our ability to project fisheries and other ecosystem services into the future, while also helping to identify uncertainties in process understanding. Here, we explore the mechanisms that underlie the diversity of responses to changes in temperature and LTLs in eight global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). Temperature and LTL impacts on total consumer biomass and ecosystem structure (defined as the relative change of small and large organism biomass) were isolated using a comparative experimental protocol. Total model biomass varied between −35% to +3% in response to warming, and -17% to +15% in response to LTL changes. There was little consensus about the spatial redistribution of biomass or changes in the balance between small and large organisms (ecosystem structure) in response to warming, an LTL impacts on total consumer biomass varied depending on the choice of LTL forcing terms. Overall, climate change impacts on consumer biomass and ecosystem structure are well approximated by the sum of temperature and LTL impacts, indicating an absence of nonlinear interaction between the models’ drivers. Our results highlight a lack of theoretical clarity about how to represent fundamental ecological mechanisms, most importantly how temperature impacts scale from individual to ecosystem level, and the need to better understand the two-way coupling between LTL organisms and consumers. We finish by identifying future research needs to strengthen global marine ecosystem modelling and improve projections of climate change impacts

Published
2021

38. Working paper analysing the economic implications of the proposed 30% target for areal protection in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framewor

Author

Waldron, Anthony, Adams, Vanessa, Allan, James, Arnell, Andy, Asner, Greg, Atkinson, Scott, Baccini, Alessandro, Baillie, Jonathan E.M., Balmford, Andrew, Beau, J. Austin, Brander, Luke, Joppa, Lucas N., Joshi, A. R., Jung, Martin, Kingston, Naomi, Klein, Carissa Joy, Krisztin, Tamas, Lam, Vicky, Leclere, David, Lindsey, Peter, Locke, Harvey, Malmer, Pernilla, Lovejoy, T.C., Madgwick, Philip, Malhi, Yadvinder, Maron, Martine, Mayorga, J., Meijl, Hans van, Miller, Dan, Molnar, Zsolt, Mueller, Nathaniel, Mukherjee, N., Naidoo, Robin, Nakamura, Katia, Olson, D., Nepal, Prakash, Noss, Reed F., O'Leary, Beth, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Paxton, Midori, Popp, Alexander, Possingham, Hugh P., Prestemon, Jeff, Reside, April, Robinson, Catherine, Robinson, John, Sala, Enric, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Scherrer, Kim, Spalding, Mark, Spenceley, Anna, Stehfest, Elke, Strassborg, Bernardo, Sumaila, Rashid U., Swinnerton, Kirsty, Sze, Jocelyne, Tittensor, Derek P., Toivonen, Tuuli, Toledo, Alejandra, Negret Torres, Pablo, Vilela, Thais, Van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Vause, James, Venter, Oscar, Visconti, P., Vynne, Carly, Watson, Reg, Watson, James E.M., Wikramanayake, Eric, Williams, Brooke, Wintle, Brendan A., Woodley, Stephen, Wu, Wenchao, Brondizio, Eduardo, Zander, Kerstin, Zhang, Yuchen, Zhang, Y.P., Bruner, Aaron, Burgess, Neil D., Burkard, K., Butchart, S.H.M., Button, Rio, Carrasco, Roman, Cheung, William W.L., Christensen, Villy, Clements, Andy, Coll, Marta, Di Marco, Moreno, Deguignet, Marine, Dinerstein, Eric, Ellis, Erle, Eppink, Florian, Ervin, Jamison, Escobedo, Anita, Fa, John E., Fernandes-Llamazares, Alvaro, Fernando, Sanjiv, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Fulton, Elizabeth A., Garnett, Stephen, Gerber, James, Gill, D., Gopalakrishna, Trisha, Hahn, Nathan, Halpern, Ben, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Heikinheimo, Vuokko, Heneghan, Ryan F., Henry, Ella, Humpenoder, Florian, Jonas, Harry, Jones, Kendall R., European Commission, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España)

Abstract

58 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables, The World Economic Forum now ranks biodiversity loss as a top-five risk to the global economy, and the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework proposes an expansion of conservation areas to 30% of the earth’s surface by 2030 (hereafter the “30% target”), using protected areas (PAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs). - Two immediate concerns are how much a 30% target might cost and whether it will cause economic losses to the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors. - Conservation areas also generate economic benefits (e.g. revenue from nature tourism and ecosystem services), making PAs/Nature an economic sector in their own right. - If some economic sectors benefit but others experience a loss, high-level policy makers need to know the net impact on the wider economy, as well as on individual sectors. [...], A. Waldron, K. Nakamura, J. Sze, T. Vilela, A. Escobedo, P. Negret Torres, R. Button, K. Swinnerton, A. Toledo, P. Madgwick, N. Mukherjee were supported by National Geographic and the Resources Legacy Fund. V. Christensen was supported by NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-2019-04901. M. Coll and J. Steenbeek were supported by EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 817578 (TRIATLAS). D. Leclere was supported by TradeHub UKRI CGRF project. R. Heneghan was supported by Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, Acciones de Programacion Conjunta Internacional (PCIN-2017-115). M. di Marco was supported by MIUR Rita Levi Montalcini programme. A. Fernandez-Llamazares was supported by Academy of Finland (grant nr. 311176). S. Fujimori and T. Hawegawa were supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and the Sumitomo Foundation. V. Heikinheimo was supported by Kone Foundation, Social Media for Conservation project. K. Scherrer was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 682602. U. Rashid Sumaila acknowledges the OceanCanada Partnership, which funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). T. Toivonen was supported by Osk. Huttunen Foundation & Clare Hall college, Cambridge. W. Wu was supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. Z. Yuchen was supported by a Ministry of Education of Singapore Research Scholarship Block (RSB) Research Fellowship

Published
2020

39. A functional size-spectrum model of the global marine ecosystem that resolves zooplankton composition

Author

Heneghan, Ryan F., Everett, Jason D., Sykes, Patrick, Batten, Sonia D., Edwards, Martin, Takahashi, Kunio, Suthers, Iain M., Blanchard, Julia L., Richardson, Anthony J., Heneghan, Ryan F., Everett, Jason D., Sykes, Patrick, Batten, Sonia D., Edwards, Martin, Takahashi, Kunio, Suthers, Iain M., Blanchard, Julia L., and Richardson, Anthony J.

Abstract

Despite their critical role as the main energy pathway between phytoplankton and fish, the functional complexity of zooplankton is typically poorly resolved in marine ecosystem models. Trait-based approaches—where zooplankton are represented with functional traits such as body size—could help improve the resolution of zooplankton in marine ecosystem models and their role in trophic transfer and carbon sequestration. Here, we present the Zooplankton Model of Size Spectra version 2 (ZooMSSv2), a functional size-spectrum model that resolves nine major zooplankton functional groups (heterotrophic flagellates, heterotrophic ciliates, larvaceans, omnivorous copepods, carnivorous copepods, chaetognaths, euphausiids, salps and jellyfish). Each group is represented by the functional traits of body size, size-based feeding characteristics and carbon content. The model is run globally at 5° resolution to steady-state using long-term average temperature and chlorophyll a for each grid-cell. Zooplankton community composition emerges based on the relative fitness of the different groups. Emergent steady-state patterns of global zooplankton abundance, biomass and growth rates agree well with empirical data, and the model is robust to changes in the boundary conditions of the zooplankton. We use the model to consider the role of the zooplankton groups in supporting higher trophic levels, by exploring the sensitivity of steady-state fish biomass to the removal of individual zooplankton groups across the global ocean. Our model shows zooplankton play a key role in supporting fish biomass in the global ocean. For example, the removal of euphausiids or omnivorous copepods caused fish biomass to decrease by up to 80%. By contrast, the removal of carnivorous copepods caused fish biomass to increase by up to 75%. Our results suggest that including zooplankton complexity in ecosystem models could be key to better understanding the distribution of fish biomass and trophic efficiency acro

Published
2020

40. Protecting 30% of the planet for nature: costs, benefits and economic implications

Author

European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Waldron, Anthony, Adams, Vanessa, Allan, James, Arnell, Andy, Asner, Greg, Atkinson, Scott, Baccini, Alessandro, Baillie, Jonathan E.M., Balmford, Andrew, Beau, J. Austin, Brander, Luke, Di Marco, Moreno, Deguignet, Marine, Dinerstein, Eric, Ellis, Erle, Eppink, Florian, Ervin, Jamison, Escobedo, Anita, Fa, John E., Fernandes-Llamazares, Alvaro, Fernando, Sanjiv, Gerber, James, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Fulton, Elizabeth A., Garnett, Stephen, Gill, D., Gopalakrishna, Trisha, Hahn, Nathan, Halpern, Ben, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Heikinheimo, Vuokko, Heneghan, Ryan F., Henry, Ella, Joppa, Lucas N., Humpenoder, Florian, Jonas, Harry, Jones, Kendall R., Joshi, A. R., Jung, Martin, Kingston, Naomi, Klein, Carissa Joy, Krisztin, Tamas, Lam, Vicky, Leclere, David, Lindsey, Peter, Locke, Harvey, Malmer, Pernilla, Lovejoy, T.C., Madgwick, Philip, Malhi, Yadvinder, Maron, Martine, Mayorga, J., Meijl, Hans van, Miller, Dan, Molnár, Zsolt, Mueller, Nathaniel, Mukherjee, N., Naidoo, Robin, Nakamura, Katia, Olson, D., Nepal, Prakash, Noss, Reed F., O'Leary, Bethan, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Paxton, Midori, Popp, Alexander, Possingham, Hugh P., Prestemon, Jeff, Reside, April, Robinson, Catherine, Robinson, John, Sala, Enric, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Scherrer, Kim, Spalding, Mark, Spenceley, Anna, Stehfest, Elke, Strassborg, Bernardo, Sumaila, Rashid U., Swinnerton, Kirsty, Sze, Jocelyne, Tittensor, Derek P., Toivonen, Tuuli, Toledo, Alejandra, Negret Torres, Pablo, Vilela, Thais, Van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Vause, James, Venter, Oscar, Visconti, P., Vynne, Carly, Watson, Reg, Watson, James E.M., Wikramanayake, Eric, Williams, Brooke, Wintle, Brendan A., Woodley, Stephen, Wu, Wenchao, Brondizio, Eduardo, Zander, Kerstin, Zhang, Yuchen, Zhang, Y.P., Bruner, Aaron, Burgess, Neil D., Burkard, K., Butchart, S.H.M., Button, Rio, Carrasco, Roman, Cheung, William W.L., Christensen, Villy, Clements, Andy, Coll, Marta, European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Waldron, Anthony, Adams, Vanessa, Allan, James, Arnell, Andy, Asner, Greg, Atkinson, Scott, Baccini, Alessandro, Baillie, Jonathan E.M., Balmford, Andrew, Beau, J. Austin, Brander, Luke, Di Marco, Moreno, Deguignet, Marine, Dinerstein, Eric, Ellis, Erle, Eppink, Florian, Ervin, Jamison, Escobedo, Anita, Fa, John E., Fernandes-Llamazares, Alvaro, Fernando, Sanjiv, Gerber, James, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Fulton, Elizabeth A., Garnett, Stephen, Gill, D., Gopalakrishna, Trisha, Hahn, Nathan, Halpern, Ben, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Heikinheimo, Vuokko, Heneghan, Ryan F., Henry, Ella, Joppa, Lucas N., Humpenoder, Florian, Jonas, Harry, Jones, Kendall R., Joshi, A. R., Jung, Martin, Kingston, Naomi, Klein, Carissa Joy, Krisztin, Tamas, Lam, Vicky, Leclere, David, Lindsey, Peter, Locke, Harvey, Malmer, Pernilla, Lovejoy, T.C., Madgwick, Philip, Malhi, Yadvinder, Maron, Martine, Mayorga, J., Meijl, Hans van, Miller, Dan, Molnár, Zsolt, Mueller, Nathaniel, Mukherjee, N., Naidoo, Robin, Nakamura, Katia, Olson, D., Nepal, Prakash, Noss, Reed F., O'Leary, Bethan, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Paxton, Midori, Popp, Alexander, Possingham, Hugh P., Prestemon, Jeff, Reside, April, Robinson, Catherine, Robinson, John, Sala, Enric, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Scherrer, Kim, Spalding, Mark, Spenceley, Anna, Stehfest, Elke, Strassborg, Bernardo, Sumaila, Rashid U., Swinnerton, Kirsty, Sze, Jocelyne, Tittensor, Derek P., Toivonen, Tuuli, Toledo, Alejandra, Negret Torres, Pablo, Vilela, Thais, Van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Vause, James, Venter, Oscar, Visconti, P., Vynne, Carly, Watson, Reg, Watson, James E.M., Wikramanayake, Eric, Williams, Brooke, Wintle, Brendan A., Woodley, Stephen, Wu, Wenchao, Brondizio, Eduardo, Zander, Kerstin, Zhang, Yuchen, Zhang, Y.P., Bruner, Aaron, Burgess, Neil D., Burkard, K., Butchart, S.H.M., Button, Rio, Carrasco, Roman, Cheung, William W.L., Christensen, Villy, Clements, Andy, and Coll, Marta

Abstract

The World Economic Forum now ranks biodiversity loss as a top-five risk to the global economy, and the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework proposes an expansion of conservation areas to 30% of the earth’s surface by 2030 (hereafter the “30% target”), using protected areas (PAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs). - Two immediate concerns are how much a 30% target might cost and whether it will cause economic losses to the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors. - Conservation areas also generate economic benefits (e.g. revenue from nature tourism and ecosystem services), making PAs/Nature an economic sector in their own right. - If some economic sectors benefit but others experience a loss, high-level policy makers need to know the net impact on the wider economy, as well as on individual sectors. [...]

Published
2020

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