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In this work the random forest algorithm GALPRO is implemented to generate photometric redshift posteriors, and its performance when trained and then applied to data from another survey is investigated. The algorithm is initially calibrated using a truth dataset compiled from the DESI Legacy survey. We find that the testing and training datasets must have very similar redshift distributions, with the range of their photometric data overlapping by at least 90% in the appropriate photometric bands in order for the training data to be applicable to the testing data. Then GALPRO is again trained using the DESI dataset and then applied to a sample drawn from the PanSTARRS survey, to explore whether GALPRO can be first trained using a trusted dataset and then applied to an entirely new survey, albeit one that uses a different magnitude system for its photometric bands, thus requiring careful conversion of the measured magnitudes for the new survey before GALPRO can be applied. The results of this further test indicate that GALPRO does not produce accurate photometric redshift posteriors for the new survey, even where the distribution of redshifts for the two datasets overlaps by over 90%. Hence, we conclude that the photometric redshifts generated by GALPRO are not suitable for generating estimates of photometric redshifts and their posterior distribution functions when applied to an entirely new survey, particularly one that uses a different magnitude system. However, our results demonstrate that GALPRO is a useful tool for inferring photometric redshift estimates in the case where a spectroscopic galaxy survey is nearly complete, but is missing some spectroscopic redshift values.

Gravitational waves from binary mergers at cosmological distances will experience weak lensing by large scale structure. This causes a (de-)magnification, $\mu$, of the wave amplitude, and a degenerate modification to the inferred luminosity distance $d_L$. To address this the uncertainty on $d_L$ is increased according to the dispersion of the magnification distribution at the source redshift, $\sigma_\mu$. But this term is dependent on cosmological parameters that are being constrained by gravitational wave "standard sirens", such as the Hubble parameter $H_0$, and the matter density fraction $\Omega_m$. $\sigma_\mu$ is also sensitive to the resolution of the simulation used for its calculation. Tension in the measured value of $H_0$ from independent datasets, and the present use of outdated cosmological simulations, suggest $\sigma_\mu$ could be underestimated. We consider two classes of standard siren, supermassive black hole binary and binary neutron star mergers. Underestimating $H_0$ and $\Omega_m$ when calculating $\sigma_\mu$ increases the probability of finding a residual lensing bias on these parameters greater than $1\sigma$ by 1.5-3 times. Underestimating $\sigma_\mu$ by using low resolution/small sky-area simulations can also significantly increase the probability of biased results. For neutron star mergers, the spread of possible biases is 0.25 km/s/Mpc, comparable to the forecasted uncertainty. Left uncorrected this effect limits the use of BNS mergers for precision cosmology. For supermassive black hole binaries, the spread of possible biases on $H_0$ is significant, 5 km/s/Mpc, but $O(200)$ observations are needed to reduce the variance below the bias. To achieve accurate sub-percent level precision on cosmological parameters using standard sirens, first much improved knowledge on the form of the magnification distribution and its dependence on cosmology is needed., Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures

Gravitational waves (GWs) can be deflected, similarly to electromagnetic (EM) waves, by massive objects through the phenomenon of gravitational lensing. The importance of gravitational lensing for GW astronomy is becoming increasingly apparent in the GW detection era, in which nearly 100 events have already been detected. As current ground-based interferometers reach their design sensitivities, it is anticipated that these detectors may observe a few GW signals that are strongly lensed by the dark halos of intervening galaxies or galaxy clusters. Analysing strong lensing effects on GW signals is, thus, becoming important to understand the lens' properties and correctly infer the intrinsic GW source parameters. However, one cannot accurately infer lens parameters for complex lens models with only GW observations because there are strong degeneracies between the parameters of lensed waveforms. In this paper, we discuss how to conduct parameter estimation of strongly lensed GW signals and infer the lens parameters using additional EM information, including the lens galaxy's axis ratio and the GW source-hosting galaxy's lensed images. We find that for simple spherically symmetric lens models, the lens parameters can be well recovered using only GW information. On the other hand, recovering the lens parameters requires systems in which four or more GW images are detected with additional EM observations for non-axially symmetric lens models. Combinations of GW and EM observations can further improve the inference of the lens parameters., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures

The discovery of the optical counterpart, along with the gravitational waves from GW170817, of the first binary neutron star merger, opened up a new era for multi-messenger astrophysics. Combining the GW data with the optical counterpart, also known as AT2017gfo, classified as a kilonova, has revealed the nature of compact binary merging systems by extracting enriched information about the total binary mass, the mass ratio, the system geometry, and the equation of state. Even though the detection of kilonova brought about a revolution in the domain of multi-messenger astronomy, since there has been only one kilonova from a gravitational wave detected binary neutron star merger event so far, this limits the exact understanding of the origin and propagation of the kilonova. Here, we use a conditional variational autoencoder trained on light curve data from two kilonova models having different temporal lengths, and consequently, generate kilonova light curves rapidly based on physical parameters of our choice with good accuracy. Once trained, the time scale for light curve generation is of the order of a few milliseconds, thus speeding up generating light curves by $1000$ times compared to the simulation. The mean squared error between the generated and original light curves is typically $0.015$ with a maximum of $0.08$ for each set of considered physical parameter; while having a maximum of $\approx0.6$ error across the whole parameter space. Hence, implementing this technique provides fast and reliably accurate results., Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures (3 additional figures in appendix), accepted to ApJ

We present a machine learning approach using normalising flows for inferring cosmological parameters from gravitational wave events. Our methodology is general to any type of compact binary coalescence event and cosmological model and relies on the generation of training data representing distributions of gravitational wave event parameters. These parameters are conditional on the underlying cosmology and incorporate prior information from galaxy catalogues. We provide an example analysis inferring the Hubble constant using binary black holes detected during the O1, O2, and O3 observational runs conducted by the advanced LIGO/VIRGO gravitational wave detectors. We obtain a Bayesian posterior on the Hubble constant from which we derive an estimate and 1$\sigma$ confidence bounds of $H_{0} = 74.51^{+14.80}_{-13.63} \: \text{km} \:\text{s}^{-1} \text{Mpc}^{-1}$. We are able to compute this result in $\mathcal{O}(1)$ s using our trained Normalising Flow model., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, to be submitted to Physics Review Letters (PRL)

As the interferometers detecting gravitational waves are upgraded, improving their sensitivity, the probability of observing strong lensing increases. Once a detection is made, it will be critical to gain as much information as possible about the lensing object from these observations. In this work, we present a methodology to rapidly perform model selection between differing mass density profiles for strongly lensed gravitational wave signals, using the results of the fast strong lensing analysis pipeline GOLUM. We demonstrate the validity of this methodology using some illustrative examples adopting the idealised singular isothermal sphere and point mass lens models. We take several simulated lensed signals, analyse them with GOLUM and subject them to our methodology to recover both the model and its parameters. To demonstrate the methodology's stability, we show how the result varies with the number of samples used for a subset of these injections. In addition to the analysis of simulations, we also apply our methodology to the gravitational wave event pair GW191230--LGW200104, two events with similar frequency evolutions and sky locations, which was analysed in detail as a potential lensing candidate but ultimately discarded when considering the full population and the uncertain nature of the second event. We find a preference for the singular isothermal sphere model over the point mass, though our posteriors are much wider than for the lensed injections, in line with the expectations for a non-lensed event. The methodology developed in this work is made available as part of the Gravelamps package of software., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures. Updated to address referee comments

Along their path from source to observer, gravitational waves may be gravitationally lensed by massive objects. This results in distortions of the observed signal which can be used to extract new information about fundamental physics, astrophysics, and cosmology. Searches for these distortions amongst the observed signals from the current detector network have already been carried out, though there have as yet been no confident detections. However, predictions of the observation rate of lensing suggest detection in the future is a realistic possibility. Therefore, preparations need to be made to thoroughly investigate the candidate lensed signals. In this work, we present some of the follow-up analyses and strategies that could be applied to assess the significance of such events and ascertain what information may be extracted about the lens-source system from such candidate signals by applying them to a number of O3 candidate events, even if these signals did not yield a high significance for any of the lensing hypotheses. For strongly-lensed candidates, we verify their significance using a background of simulated unlensed events and statistics computed from lensing catalogs. We also look for potential electromagnetic counterparts. In addition, we analyse in detail a candidate for a strongly-lensed sub-threshold counterpart that is identified by a new method. For microlensing candidates, we perform model selection using a number of lens models to investigate our ability to determine the mass density profile of the lens and constrain the lens parameters. We also look for millilensing signatures in one of the lensed candidates. Applying these additional analyses does not lead to any additional evidence for lensing in the candidates that have been examined. However, it does provide important insight into potential avenues to deal with high-significance candidates in future observations., Comment: 29 pages, 27 figures

The mergers of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) can serve as standard sirens: the gravitational wave (GW) analog of standard candles. The upcoming space-borne GW detectors will be able to discover such systems and estimate their luminosity distances precisely. Unfortunately, weak gravitational lensing can induce significant errors in the measured distance of these standard sirens at high redshift, severely limiting their usefulness as precise distance probes. The uncertainty due to weak lensing can be reduced if the lensing magnification of the siren can be estimated independently, a procedure called 'delensing'. With the help of up-to-date numerical simulations, here we investigate how much the weak-lensing errors can be reduced using convergence maps reconstructed from shear measurements. We also evaluate the impact of delensing on cosmological parameter estimation with bright standard sirens. We find that the weak-lensing errors for sirens at $z_s = 2.9$ can be reduced by about a factor of two on average, but to achieve this would require expensive ultra-deep field observations for every siren. Such an approach is likely to be practical in only limited cases, and the reduction in the weak-lensing error is therefore likely to be insufficient to significantly improve the cosmological parameter estimation. We conclude that performing delensing corrections is unlikely to be worthwhile, in contrast to the more positive expectations presented in previous studies. For delensing to become more practicable and useful in the future will require significant improvements in the resolution/depth of weak-lensing surveys and/or the methods to reconstruct convergence maps from these surveys., Comment: 20 pages, 22 figures, to be published in MNRAS

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) has two scientific objectives of cosmological focus: to probe the expansion rate of the universe, and to understand stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds and their implications for early universe and particle physics, from the MeV to the Planck scale. However, the range of potential cosmological applications of gravitational wave observations extends well beyond these two objectives. This publication presents a summary of the state of the art in LISA cosmology, theory and methods, and identifies new opportunities to use gravitational wave observations by LISA to probe the universe.

We present the package Gravelamps which is designed to analyse lensed gravitational wave signals in order to constrain the mass density profile of the lensing object. Gravelamps does this via parameter estimation using the framework of bilby, which enables estimation of both the lens and the source parameters. The package can be used to study both microlensing and macrolensing cases -- where the lensing mass distribution is described by a point mass and extended mass density profile respectively -- and allows the user to easily and freely switch between the full wave optics and approximate geometric optics description. The performance of Gravelamps is demonstrated via simulated analysis of both mircolensing and macrolensing events, illustrating its capability for both parameter estimation and model selection in the wave optics and hybrid environments. To further demonstrate the utility of the package, the real gravitational-wave event GW170809 was analysed using Gravelamps; this event was found to yield no strong evidence supporting the lensing hypothesis, consistent with previously published results., Comment: 17 Pages (15 excluding bibliography) 5 Figures, 1 Table, Gravelamps source code found at: https://git.ligo.org/michael.wright/Gravelamps

The propagation of gravitational waves (GWs) at cosmological distances offers a new way to test the gravitational interaction at the largest scales. Many modified theories of gravity, usually introduced to explain the observed acceleration of the universe, can be probed in an alternative and complementary manner with respect to standard electromagnetic (EM) observations. In this paper we consider a homogeneous and isotropic cosmology with extra spatial dimensions at large scales, which represents a simple phenomenological prototype for extra-dimensional modified gravity cosmological models. By assuming that gravity propagates through the higher-dimensional spacetime, while photons are constrained to the usual four dimensions of general relativity, we derive from first principles the relation between the luminosity distance measured by GW detectors and the one inferred by EM observations. We then use this relation to constrain the number of cosmological extra dimensions with the binary neutron star event GW170817 and the binary black hole merger GW190521. We further provide forecasts for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) by simulating multi-messenger observations of massive black hole binary (MBHB) mergers. This paper extends and updates previous analyses which crucially neglected an additional redshift dependency in the GW-EM luminosity distance relation which affects results obtained from multi-messenger GW events at high redshift, in particular constraints expected from LISA MBHBs., Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected at high redshift can be used to trace the cosmic expansion history. However, the calibration of their luminosity distances is not an easy task in comparison to Type Ia Supernovae (SNeIa). To calibrate these data, correlations between their luminosity and other observed properties of GRBs need to be identified, and we must consider the validity of our assumptions about these correlations over their entire observed redshift range. In this work, we propose a new method to calibrate GRBs as cosmological distance indicators using SNeIa observations with a machine learning architecture. As well we include a new data GRB calibrated sample using extended cosmography in a redshift range above $z>3.6$. An overview of this machine learning technique was developed in [1] to study the evolution of dark energy models at high redshift. The aim of the method developed in this work is to combine two networks: a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN). Using this computational approach, denoted RNN+BNN, we extend the network's efficacy by adding the computation of covariance matrices to the Bayesian process. Once this is done, the SNeIa distance-redshift relation can be tested on the full GRB sample and therefore used to implement a cosmographic reconstruction of the distance-redshift relation in different regimes. Thus, our newly-trained neural network is used to constrain the parameters describing the kinematical state of the Universe via a cosmographic approach at high redshifts (up to $z\approx 10$), wherein we require a very minimal set of assumptions on the deep learning architecture itself that do not rely on dynamical equations for any specific theory of gravity., Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures. Tables 1, 2 and 3 contains newly calibrated high redshift GRB. Version accepted in JCAP

For gravitational wave (GW) detected neutron star mergers, one of the leading candidates for electromagnetic (EM) counterparts is the afterglow from an ultra-relativistic jet. Where this afterglow is observed, it will likely be viewed off-axis, such as the afterglow following GW170817/GRB 170817A. The temporal behaviour of an off-axis observed GRB afterglow can be used to reveal the lateral jet structure, and statistical model fits can put constraints on the various model free-parameters. Amongst these parameters is the inclination of the system to the line of sight. Along with the GW detection, the afterglow modelling provides the best constraint on the inclination to the line-of-sight and can improve the estimates of cosmological parameters e.g. the Hubble constant, from GW-EM events. However, modelling of the afterglow depends on the assumed jet structure and, often overlooked, the effects of lateral spreading. Here we show how the inclusion of lateral spreading in the afterglow models can affect the estimated inclination of GW-EM events., Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, Accepted to the special issue of Universe, "Waiting for GODOT -- Present and Future of Multi-Messenger Astronomy"

The precise calibration of the strain readout of the LIGO gravitational wave observatories is paramount to the accurate interpretation of gravitational wave events. This calibration is traditionally done by imparting a known force on the test masses of the observatory via radiation pressure. Here we describe the implementation of an alternative calibration scheme: the Newtonian Calibrator. This system uses a rotor consisting of both quadrupole and hexapole mass distributions to apply a time-varying gravitational force on one of the observatory's test masses. The force produced by this rotor can be predicted to $<1\%$ relative uncertainty and is well-resolved in the readout of the observatory. This system currently acts as a cross-check of the existing absolute calibration system.

Teleparallel gravity has significantly increased in popularity in recent decades, bringing attention to Einstein's other theory of gravity. In this Review, we relate this form of geometry to the broader metric-affine approach to forming gravitational theories where we describe a systematic way of constructing consistent teleparallel theories that respect certain physical conditions such as local Lorentz invariance. We first use teleparallel gravity to formulate a teleparallel equivalent of general relativity which is dynamically equivalent to general relativity but which may have different behaviors for other scenarios, such as quantum gravity. After setting this foundation, we describe the plethora of modified teleparallel theories of gravity that have been proposed in the literature. In the second part of the Review, we first survey works in teleparallel astrophysics literature where we focus on the open questions in this regime of physics. We then discuss the cosmological consequences for the various formulations of teleparallel gravity. We do this at background level by exploring works using various approaches ranging from dynamical systems to Noether symmetries, and more. Naturally, we then discuss perturbation theory, firstly by giving a concise approach in which this can be applied in teleparallel gravity theories and then apply it to a number of important theories in the literature. Finally, we examine works in observational and precision cosmology across the plethora of proposal theories. This is done using some of the latest observations and is used to tackle cosmological tensions which may be alleviated in teleparallel cosmology. We also introduce a number of recent works in the application of machine learning to gravity, we do this through deep learning and Gaussian processes, together with discussions about other approaches in the literature., Comment: 391 pages, 55 figures

Space-borne gravitational wave detectors like TianQin are expected to detect GW signals emitted by the mergers of massive black hole binaries. Luminosity distance information can be obtained from GW observations, and one can perform cosmological inference if redshift information can also be extracted, which would be straightforward if an electromagnetic counterpart exists. In this paper, we concentrate on the conservative scenario where the EM counterparts are not available, and comprehensively study if cosmological parameters can be inferred through a statistical approach, utilizing the non-uniform distribution of galaxies as well as the black hole mass-host galaxy bulge luminosity relationship. By adopting different massive black hole binary merger models, and assuming different detector configurations, we conclude that the statistical inference of cosmological parameters is indeed possible. TianQin is expected to constrain the Hubble constant to a relative error of about 4%-7%, depending on the underlying model. The multidetector network of TianQin and LISA can significantly improve the precision of cosmological parameters. In the most favorable model, it is possible to achieve a level of 1.7% with a network of TianQin and LISA. We find that without EM counterparts, constraints on all other parameters need a larger number of events or more precise sky localization of GW sources, which can be achieved by the multidetector network or under a favorable model for massive black hole mergers. However, in the optimistic case, where EM counterparts are available, one can obtain useful constraints on all cosmological parameters in the Lambda-CDM cosmology, regardless of the population model. Moreover, we can also constrain the equation of state of the dark energy without the EM counterparts, and it is even possible to study the evolution of EoS of the DE when the EM counterparts are observed., Comment: 34 pages, 17 figures, update to match published version

TianQin is a planned space-based gravitational wave (GW) observatory consisting of three earth orbiting satellites with an orbital radius of about $10^5~{\rm km}$. The satellites will form a equilateral triangle constellation the plane of which is nearly perpendicular to the ecliptic plane. TianQin aims to detect GWs between $10^{-4}~{\rm Hz}$ and $1~{\rm Hz}$ that can be generated by a wide variety of important astrophysical and cosmological sources, including the inspiral of Galactic ultra-compact binaries, the inspiral of stellar-mass black hole binaries, extreme mass ratio inspirals, the merger of massive black hole binaries, and possibly the energetic processes in the very early universe or exotic sources such as cosmic strings. In order to start science operations around 2035, a roadmap called the 0123 plan is being used to bring the key technologies of TianQin to maturity, supported by the construction of a series of research facilities on the ground. Two major projects of the 0123 plan are being carried out. In this process, the team has created a new generation $17~{\rm cm}$ single-body hollow corner-cube retro-reflector which has been launched with the QueQiao satellite on 21 May 2018; a new laser ranging station equipped with a $1.2~{\rm m}$ telescope has been constructed and the station has successfully ranged to all the five retro-reflectors on the Moon; and the TianQin-1 experimental satellite has been launched on 20 December 2019 and the first round result shows that the satellite has exceeded all of its mission requirements., Comment: 16 pages, 1 figure, invited article to a special section in PTEP

The multi-messenger observation of compact binary coalescence promises great scientific treasure. However, a synthetic observation from both gravitational wave and electromagnetic channels remains challenging. Relying on the day-to-week long macronova emission, GW170817 remains the only event with successful electromagnetic followup. In this manuscript, we explore the possibility of using the early stage X-ray afterglow to search for the electromagnetic counterpart of gravitational wave events. Two algorithms, the sequential observation and the local optimization are considered and applied to three simulated events. We consider the proposed Einstein probe as a candidate X-ray telescope. Benefiting from the large field of view and high sensitivity, we find that the sequential observation algorithm not only is easy to implement, but also promises a good chance of actual detection.

Demographic studies of cosmic populations must contend with measurement errors and selection effects. We survey some of the key ideas astronomers have developed to deal with these complications, in the context of galaxy surveys and the literature on corrections for Malmquist and Eddington bias. From the perspective of modern statistics, such corrections arise naturally in the context of multilevel models, particularly in Bayesian treatments of such models: hierarchical Bayesian models. We survey some key lessons from hierarchical Bayesian modeling, including shrinkage estimation, which is closely related to traditional corrections devised by astronomers. We describe a framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, tailored to features of astronomical surveys that are not typical of surveys in other disciplines. This thinned latent marked point process framework accounts for the tie between selection (detection) and measurement in astronomical surveys, treating selection and measurement error effects in a self-consistent manner., Comment: 33 pages, 5 figures

The grand challenges of contemporary fundamental physics---dark matter, dark energy, vacuum energy, inflation and early universe cosmology, singularities and the hierarchy problem---all involve gravity as a key component. And of all gravitational phenomena, black holes stand out in their elegant simplicity, while harbouring some of the most remarkable predictions of General Relativity: event horizons, singularities and ergoregions. The hitherto invisible landscape of the gravitational Universe is being unveiled before our eyes: the historical direct detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration marks the dawn of a new era of scientific exploration. Gravitational-wave astronomy will allow us to test models of black hole formation, growth and evolution, as well as models of gravitational-wave generation and propagation. It will provide evidence for event horizons and ergoregions, test the theory of General Relativity itself, and may reveal the existence of new fundamental fields. The synthesis of these results has the potential to radically reshape our understanding of the cosmos and of the laws of Nature. The purpose of this work is to present a concise, yet comprehensive overview of the state of the art in the relevant fields of research, summarize important open problems, and lay out a roadmap for future progress., Comment: White Paper for the COST action "Gravitational Waves, Black Holes, and Fundamental Physics", 272 pages, 12 figures; v4: updated references and author list. Overall improvements and corrections. To appear in Classical and Quantum Gravity

For third generation gravitational wave detectors, such as the Einstein Telescope, gravitational wave signals from binary neutron stars can last up to a few days before the neutron stars merge. To estimate the measurement uncertainties of key signal parameters, we develop a Fisher matrix approach which accounts for effects on such long duration signals of the time-dependent detector response and the earths rotation. We use this approach to characterize the sky localization uncertainty for gravitational waves from binary neutron stars at 40, 200, 400, 800 and 1600Mpc, for the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer individually and operating as a network. We find that the Einstein Telescope alone can localize the majority of detectable binary neutron stars at a distance of $\leq200$Mpc to within $100\text{deg}^2$ with 90% confidence. A network consisting of the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer can enhance the sky localization performance significantly - with the 90% credible region of $\mathcal{O}(1) \text{deg}^2$ for most sources at $\leq200$Mpc and $\leq100\text{deg}^2$ for most sources at $\leq1600$Mpc. We also investigate the prospects for third generation detectors identifying the presence of a signal prior to merger. To do this, we require a signal to have a network signal-to-noise ratio of $\geq12$ and $\geq5.5$ for at least two interferometers, and to have a 90% credible region for the sky localization that is no larger than $100 \text{deg}^2$. We find that the Einstein Telescope can send out such "early-warning" detection alerts 1 - 20 hours before merger for 100% of detectable binary neutron stars at 40Mpc and for $\sim58\%$ of sources at 200Mpc. For sources at a distance of 400Mpc, a network of the Einstein telescope and Cosmic Explorer can produce detection alerts up to $\sim 3$ hours prior to merger for 98% of detectable binary neutron stars.

The observation of the electromagnetic counterpart of gravitational-wave (GW) transient GW170817 demonstrated the potential in extracting astrophysical information from multimessenger discoveries. The forthcoming deployment of the first telescopes of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) observatory will coincide with Advanced LIGO/Virgo's next observing run, O3, enabling the monitoring of gamma-ray emission at E > 20 GeV, and thus particle acceleration, from GW sources. CTA will not be greatly limited by the precision of GW localization as it will be be capable of rapidly covering the GW error region with sufficient sensitivity. We examine the current status of GW searches and their follow-up effort, as well as the status of CTA, in order to identify some of the general strategies that will enhance CTA's contribution to multimessenger discoveries., Comment: 10 pages

The statistical significance of a candidate gravitational-wave (GW) event is crucial to the prospects for a confirmed detection, or for its selection as a candidate for follow-up electromagnetic observation. To determine the significance of a GW candidate, a ranking statistic is evaluated and compared to an empirically-estimated background distribution, yielding a false alarm probability or p-value. The reliability of this background estimate is limited by the number of background samples and by the fact that GW detectors cannot be shielded from signals, making it impossible to identify a pure background data set. Different strategies have been proposed: in one method, all samples, including potential signals, are included in the background estimation, whereas in another method, coincidence removal is performed in order to exclude possible signals from the estimated background. Here we report on a mock data challenge, performed prior to the first detections of GW signals by Advanced LIGO, to compare these two methods. The all-samples method is found to be self-consistent in terms of the rate of false positive detection claims, but its p-value estimates are systematically conservative and subject to higher variance. Conversely, the coincidence-removal method yields a mean-unbiased estimate of the p-value but sacrifices self-consistency. We provide a simple formula for the uncertainty in estimate significance and compare it to mock data results. Finally, we discuss the use of different methods in claiming the detection of GW signals., Comment: A shortened version of arXiv:1601.00130

Wave Dark Matter (WaveDM) has recently gained attention as a viable candidate to account for the dark matter content of the Universe. In this paper we explore the extent to which dark matter halos in this model, and under what conditions, are able to reproduce strong lensing systems. First, we analytically explore the lensing properties of the model -- finding that a pure WaveDM density profile, a soliton profile, produces a weaker lensing effect than other similar cored profiles. Then we analyze models with a soliton embedded in an NFW profile, as has been found in numerical simulations of structure formation. We use a benchmark model with a boson mass of $m_a=10^{-22}{\rm eV}$, for which we see that there is a bi-modality in the contribution of the external NFW part of the profile, and actually some of the free parameters associated with it are not well constrained. We find that for configurations with boson masses $10^{-23}$ -- $10^{-22}{\rm eV}$, a range of masses preferred by dwarf galaxy kinematics, the soliton profile alone can fit the data but its size is incompatible with the luminous extent of the lens galaxies. Likewise, boson masses of the order of $10^{-21}{\rm eV}$, which would be consistent with Lyman-$\alpha$ constraints and consist of more compact soliton configurations, necessarily require the NFW part in order to reproduce the observed Einstein radii. We then conclude that lens systems impose a conservative lower bound $m_a > 10^{-24}$ and that the NFW envelope around the soliton must be present to satisfy the observational requirements., Comment: 26 pages, 7 figures, Published

This paper reviews gravitational wave sources and their detection. One of the most exciting potential sources of gravitational waves are coalescing binary black hole systems. They can occur on all mass scales and be formed in numerous ways, many of which are not understood. They are generally invisible in electromagnetic waves, and they provide opportunities for deep investigation of Einstein's general theory of relativity. Sect. 1 of this paper considers ways that binary black holes can be created in the universe, and includes the prediction that binary black hole coalescence events are likely to be the first gravitational wave sources to be detected. The next parts of this paper address the detection of chirp waveforms from coalescence events in noisy data. Such analysis is computationally intensive. Sect. 2 reviews a new and powerful method of signal detection based on the GPU-implemented summed parallel infinite impulse response filters. Such filters are intrinsically real time alorithms, that can be used to rapidly detect and localise signals. Sect. 3 of the paper reviews the use of GPU processors for rapid searching for gravitational wave bursts that can arise from black hole births and coalescences. In sect. 4 the use of GPU processors to enable fast efficient statistical significance testing of gravitational wave event candidates is reviewed. Sect. 5 of this paper addresses the method of multimessenger astronomy where the discovery of electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational wave events can be used to identify sources, understand their nature and obtain much greater science outcomes from each identified event.

We investigate the issue in determining the significance of candidate transient gravitational-wave events in a ground-based interferometer network. Given the presence of non-Gaussian noise artefacts in real data, the noise background must be estimated empirically from the data itself. However, the data also potentially contains signals, thus the background estimate may be overstated due to contributions from signals. It has been proposed to mitigate possible bias by removing single-detector data samples that pass a multi-detector consistency test from the background estimates. We conduct a high-statistics Mock Data Challenge to evaluate the effects of removing such samples, modelling a range of scenarios with plausible detector noise distributions and with a range of plausible foreground astrophysical signal rates. We consider the two different modes: one in which coincident samples are removed, and one in which all samples are retained and used. Three algorithms were operated in both modes, show good consistency with each other; however, discrepancies arise between the results obtained under the "coincidence removal" and "all samples" modes, for false alarm probabilities below a certain value. In most scenarios the median of the false alarm probability (FAP) estimator under the "all samples" mode is consistent with the exact FAP. On the other hand the "coincidence removal" mode is found to be unbiased for the mean of the estimated FAP. While the numerical values at which discrepancies become apparent are specific to the details of our experiment, we believe that the qualitative differences in the behaviour of the median and mean of the FAP estimator have more general validity. On the basis of our study we suggest that the FAP of candidates for the first detection of gravitational waves should be estimated without removing single-detector samples that form coincidences., Comment: 30 pages

In this paper we provide a short overview of the scope and strong future potential of a multi-messenger approach to gravitational-wave astronomy, that seeks to optimally combine gravtitational wave and electromagnetic observations. We highlight the importance of a multi-messenger approach for detecting gravitational wave sources, and also describe some ways in which joint gravitational wave and electromagnetic observations can improve the estimation of source parameters and better inform our understanding of the sources themselves -- thus enhancing their potential as probes of astrophysics and cosmology., Comment: For the China Science Centenary issue for General Relativity

Estimates of the source sky location for gravitational wave signals are likely span areas ranging up to hundreds of square degrees or more, making it very challenging for most telescopes to search for counterpart signals in the electromagnetic spectrum. To boost the chance of successfully observing such counterparts, we have developed an algorithm which optimizes the number of observing fields and their corresponding time allocations by maximizing the detection probability. As a proof-of-concept demonstration, we optimize follow-up observations targeting kilonovae using telescopes including CTIO-Dark Energy Camera, Subaru-HyperSuprimeCam, Pan-STARRS and Palomar Transient Factory. We consider three simulated gravitational wave events with 90% credible error regions spanning areas from ~30 deg^2 to ~300 deg^2. Assuming a source at 200 Mpc, we demonstrate that to obtain a maximum detection probability, there is an optimized number of fields for any particular event that a telescope should observe. To inform future telescope design studies, we present the maximum detection probability and corresponding number of observing fields for a combination of limiting magnitudes and fields-of-view over a range of parameters. We show that for large gravitational wave error regions, telescope sensitivity rather than field-of-view, is the dominating factor in maximizing the detection probability.

We consider the optimal site selection of future generations of gravitational wave detectors. Previously, Raffai et al. optimized a 2-detector network with a combined figure of merit. This optimization was extended to networks with more than two detectors in a limited way by first fixing the parameters of all other component detectors. In this work we now present a more general optimization that allows the locations of all detectors to be simultaneously chosen. We follow the definition of Raffai et al. on the metric that defines the suitability of a certain detector network. Given the locations of the component detectors in the network, we compute a measure of the network's ability to distinguish the polarization, constrain the sky localization and reconstruct the parameters of a gravitational wave source. We further define the `flexibility index' for a possible site location, by counting the number of multi-detector networks with a sufficiently high Figure of Merit that include that site location. We confirm the conclusion of Raffai et al., that in terms of flexibility index as defined in this work, Australia hosts the best candidate site to build a future generation gravitational wave detector. This conclusion is valid for either a 3-detector network or a 5-detector network. For a 3-detector network site locations in Northern Europe display a comparable flexibility index to sites in Australia. However for a 5-detector network, Australia is found to be a clearly better candidate than any other location., Comment: 30 pages, 23 figures, 2 tables

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is a widely recognised as an efficient method for sampling a specified posterior distribution. However, when the posterior is multi-modal, conventional MCMC algorithms either tend to become stuck in one local mode, become non-Markovian or require an excessively long time to explore the global properties of the distribution. We propose a novel variant of MCMC, mixed MCMC, which exploits a specially designed proposal density to allow the generation candidate points from any of a number of different modes. This new method is efficient by design, and is strictly Markovian. We present our method and apply it to a toy model inference problem to demonstrate its validity., Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure

The sudden spin-down in the rotation of magnetar 1E 2259+586 observed by Archibald et al. (2013) was a rare event. However this particular event, referred to as an anti-glitch, was followed by another event which Archibald et al. (2013) suggested could either be a conventional glitch or another anti-glitch. Although there is no accompanied radiation activity or pulse profile change, there is decisive evidence for the existence of the second timing event, judging from the timing data. We apply Bayesian Model Selection to quantitatively determine which of these possibilities better explains the observed data. We show that the observed data strongly supports the presence of two successive anti-glitches with a Bayes Factor, often called the odds ratio, greater than 40. Furthermore, we show that the second anti-gtlich has an associated frequency change $\Delta\nu$ of $-8.2 \times 10^{-8}$ Hz. We discuss the implications of these results for possible physical mechanisms behind this anti-glitch., Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, published in ApJ L

Interferometric detectors will very soon give us an unprecedented view of the gravitational-wave sky, and in particular of the explosive and transient Universe. Now is the time to challenge our theoretical understanding of short-duration gravitational-wave signatures from cataclysmic events, their connection to more traditional electromagnetic and particle astrophysics, and the data analysis techniques that will make the observations a reality. This paper summarizes the state of the art, future science opportunities, and current challenges in understanding gravitational-wave transients., Comment: 33 pages, 2 figures

We discuss combined constraints, coming from the cosmic microwave background shift parameter $\mathcal{R}$, baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) distance parameter $\mathcal{A}$, and from the latest type Ia supernovae data, imposed on cosmological models which allow sudden future singularities of pressure. We show that due to their weakness such sudden singularities may happen in the very near future and that at present they can mimic standard dark energy models., Comment: 8 pages, 2 references added

This paper continues our development of non-parametric tests for analysing the completeness in apparent magnitude of magnitude-redshift surveys. The purpose of this third and final paper in our completeness series is two-fold: firstly we explore how certain forms of incompleteness for a given flux-limited galaxy redshift survey would manifest themselves in the ROBUST Tc and Tv completeness estimators introduced in our earlier papers; secondly we provide a comprehensive error propagation for these estimators. By using both real surveys and Monte Carlo mock survey data, we have found distinct, characteristic behaviour of the Tc and Tv estimators which identify incompleteness in the form of e.g. missing objects within a particular magnitude range. Conversely we have identified signatures of `over' completeness, in cases where a survey contains a small region in apparent magnitude that may have too many objects relative to the rest of the data set. We also demonstrate how incompleteness resulting from luminosity evolution can be identified and provide a framework for using our estimators as a robust tool for constraining models of luminosity evolution. Finally we explore the error propagation for Tc andTv. This builds on Completeness II by allowing the definition of these estimators, and their errors, via an adaptive procedure that accounts for the effects of sampling error on the observed distribution of apparent magnitude and redshift in a survey., Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures, 1 table, Accepted version for publication in MNRAS

Current observational evidence does not yet exclude the possibility that dark energy could be in the form of phantom energy. A universe consisting of a phantom constituent will be driven toward a drastic end known as the `Big Rip' singularity where all the matter in the universe will be destroyed. Motivated by this possibility, other evolutionary scenarios have been explored by Barrow, including the phenomena which he called Sudden Future Singularities (SFS). In such a model it is possible to have a blow up of the pressure occurring at sometime in the future evolution of the universe while the energy density would remain unaffected. The particular evolution of the scale factor of the universe in this model that results in a singular behaviour of the pressure also admits acceleration in the current era. In this paper we will present the results of our confrontation of one example class of SFS models with the available cosmological data from high redshift supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We then discuss the viability of the model in question as an alternative to dark energy., Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

This is the second paper in our completeness series which addresses some of the issues raised in the previous article by Johnston, Teodoro & Hendry (2007) in which we developed statistical tests for assessing the completeness in apparent magnitude of magnitude-redshift surveys defined by two flux limits. The statistics, Tc and Tv, associated with these tests are non-parametric and defined in terms of the observed cumulative distribution function of sources; they represent powerful tools for identifying the true flux limit and/or characterising systematic errors in magnitude-redshift data. In this paper we present a new approach to constructing these estimators that resembles an "adaptive smoothing" procedure - i.e. by seeking to maintain the same amount the information, as measured by the signal-to-noise ratio, allocated to each galaxy. For consistency with our previous work, we apply our improved estimators to the Millennium Galaxy Catalogue (MGC) and the Two Degree Field Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS) data, and demonstrate that one needs to use a signal-to-noise appropriately tailored for each individual catalogue to optimise the performance of the completeness estimators. Furthermore, unless such an adaptive procedure is employed, the assessment of completeness may result in a spurious outcome if one uses other estimators present in the literature which have not been designed taking into account "shot noise" due to sampling., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, MNRAS accepted

Gravitational waves (GWs) are expected to play a crucial role in the development of multimessenger astrophysics. The combination of GW observations with other astrophysical triggers, such as from gamma-ray and X-ray satellites, optical/radio telescopes, and neutrino detectors allows us to decipher science that would otherwise be inaccessible. In this paper, we provide a broad review from the multimessenger perspective of the science reach offered by the third generation interferometric GW detectors and by the Einstein Telescope (ET) in particular. We focus on cosmic transients, and base our estimates on the results obtained by ET's predecessors GEO, LIGO, and Virgo., Comment: 26 pages. 3 figures. Special issue of GRG on the Einstein Telescope. Minor corrections included

Supermassive black hole binary systems (SMBHB) are standard sirens -- the gravitational wave analogue of standard candles -- and if discovered by gravitational wave detectors, they could be used as precise distance indicators. Unfortunately, gravitational lensing will randomly magnify SMBHB signals, seriously degrading any distance measurements. Using a weak lensing map of the SMBHB line of sight, we can estimate its magnification and thereby remove some uncertainty in its distance, a procedure we call "delensing." We find that delensing is significantly improved when galaxy shears are combined with flexion measurements, which reduce small-scale noise in reconstructed magnification maps. Under a Gaussian approximation, we estimate that delensing with a 2D mosaic image from an Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) could reduce distance errors by about 30-40% for a SMBHB at z=2. Including an additional wide shear map from a space survey telescope could reduce distance errors by 50%. Such improvement would make SMBHBs considerably more valuable as cosmological distance probes or as a fully independent check on existing probes., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, submitted to MNRAS

We present a new method for dealing with geometrical selection effects in galaxy surveys while using a multifractal framework. The power of multifractal analysis lies in its connection to higher order moments, in that it not only probes clustering on different scales but also different densities. Therefore any incompleteness issues must be correctly addressed before blindly applying this technique to real survey data., Comment: To appear in the refereed Proceedings `A Century of Cosmology: Past, Present and Future', San Servolo (Venezia, Italy), August 2007, to be published by `Il Nuovo Cimento'. Extended version - 7 pages, 4 Figures

We open the discussion into how the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) observations of supermassive black-hole (SMBH) mergers (in the mass range ~10^6-10^8 Msun) may be complementary to pulsar timing-based gravitational wave searches. We consider the toy model of determining pulsar distances by exploiting the fact that LISA SMBH inspiral observations can place tight parameter constraints on the signal present in pulsar timing observations. We also suggest, as a future path of research, the use of LISA ring-down observations from the most massive (>~ a few 10^7 Msun) black-hole mergers, for which the inspiral stage will lie outside the LISA band, as both a trigger and constraint on searches within pulsar timing data for the inspiral stage of the merger., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, submitted for the proceedings of the Amaldi 7 conference

We investigate methods to best estimate the normalisation of the mass density fluctuation power spectrum (sigma_8) using peculiar velocity data from a survey like the Six degree Field Galaxy Velocity Survey (6dFGSv). We focus on two potential problems (i) biases from nonlinear growth of structure and (ii) the large number of velocities in the survey. Simulations of LambdaCDM-like models are used to test the methods. We calculate the likelihood from a full covariance matrix of velocities averaged in grid cells. This simultaneously reduces the number of data points and smooths out nonlinearities which tend to dominate on small scales. We show how the averaging can be taken into account in the predictions in a practical way, and show the effect of the choice of cell size. We find that a cell size can be chosen that significantly reduces the nonlinearities without significantly increasing the error bars on cosmological parameters. We compare our results with those from a principal components analysis following Watkins et al (2002) and Feldman et al (2003) to select a set of optimal moments constructed from linear combinations of the peculiar velocities that are least sensitive to the nonlinear scales. We conclude that averaging in grid cells performs equally well. We find that for a survey such as 6dFGSv we can estimate sigma_8 with less than 3% bias from nonlinearities. The expected error on sigma_8 after marginalising over Omega_m is approximately 16 percent., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 12 pages, 5 figures. V2 Discussion clarified, 1 figure added, improvements to the text and figures; V3 Figure 5 Plotting error corrected, SN1a contours smaller

The Mock LISA Data Challenges are a program to demonstrate LISA data-analysis capabilities and to encourage their development. Each round of challenges consists of several data sets containing simulated instrument noise and gravitational-wave sources of undisclosed parameters. Participants are asked to analyze the data sets and report the maximum information about source parameters. The challenges are being released in rounds of increasing complexity and realism: in this proceeding we present the results of Challenge 2, issued in January 2007, which successfully demonstrated the recovery of signals from supermassive black-hole binaries, from ~20,000 overlapping Galactic white-dwarf binaries, and from the extreme-mass-ratio inspirals of compact objects into central galactic black holes., Comment: 8 pages, 2 EPS figures, proceedings of the 7th Amaldi Conference on Gravitational Waves, 8-14 July 2007, Sydney, Australia

In this paper we describe a Bayesian inference framework for analysis of data obtained by LISA. We set up a model for binary inspiral signals as defined for the Mock LISA Data Challenge 1.2 (MLDC), and implemented a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to facilitate exploration and integration of the posterior distribution over the 9-dimensional parameter space. Here we present intermediate results showing how, using this method, information about the 9 parameters can be extracted from the data., Comment: Accepted for publication in Classical and Quantum Gravity, GWDAW-11 special issue

We discuss the constraints coming from current observations of type Ia supernovae on cosmological models which allow sudden future singularities of pressure (with the scale factor and the energy density regular). We show that such a sudden singularity may happen in the very near future (e.g. within ten million years) and its prediction at the present moment of cosmic evolution cannot be distinguished, with current observational data, from the prediction given by the standard quintessence scenario of future evolution. Fortunately, sudden future singularities are characterized by a momentary peak of infinite tidal forces only; there is no geodesic incompletness which means that the evolution of the universe may eventually be continued throughout until another ``more serious'' singularity such as Big-Crunch or Big-Rip., Comment: REVTEX4, 4 pages, 2 figures, references changed

We report on the analysis of selected single source data sets from the first round of the Mock LISA Data Challenges (MLDC) for white dwarf binaries. We implemented an end-to-end pipeline consisting of a grid-based coherent pre-processing unit for signal detection, and an automatic Markov Chain Monte Carlo post-processing unit for signal evaluation. We demonstrate that signal detection with our coherent approach is secure and accurate, and is increased in accuracy and supplemented with additional information on the signal parameters by our Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. We also demonstrate that the Markov Chain Monte Carlo routine is additionally able to determine accurately the noise level in the frequency window of interest., Comment: GWDAW-11 proceeding, submitted to CQG, 10 pages, 3 figures, 1 table; revised values in table