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1. Drivers of conflict and resilience in shifting transboundary fisheries

Author

Vogel, Jacqueline M, Longo, Catherine, Spijkers, Jessica, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Mason, Julia, Wabnitz, Colette CC, Cheung, William, Sumaila, U Rashid, Munro, Gordon, Glaser, Sarah, Bell, Johann, Tian, Yongjun, Shackell, Nancy L, Selig, Elizabeth R, Le Billon, Philippe, Watson, James R, Hendrix, Cullen, Pinsky, Malin L, van Putten, Ingrid, Karr, Kendra, Papaioannou, Eva A, and Fujita, Rod

Subjects
Environmental Sciences, Environmental Management, Transboundary fisheries, Shifting stocks, Fisheries conflict, Ocean governance, High seas, Environmental Science and Management, Political Science, Law, Fisheries, Environmental management, Policy and administration, Political science
Abstract

Climate change is causing fish stocks to shift, upending the social-ecological systems that rely on the historic distributions of these stocks and creating or exacerbating fisheries conflicts. The movements of internationally shared stocks between Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) or between EEZs and the high seas are especially concerning because they bring into play a variety of geopolitical factors and equity issues surrounding missing or conflicting regulations of jurisdictional boundary zones. Though many studies have explored the responses to and repercussions of shifting stocks on fisheries management, there is a dearth of interdisciplinary case studies that provide insight into the complexity of conflict formation in shifting transboundary fisheries, and that highlight the initial response stages where inclusion of proactive and cooperative measures can greatly improve a system's resilience to conflict. Our study helps to fill this gap by drawing on the knowledge of a diverse group of experts to analyze four case studies where transboundary stock shifts, geopolitical or governance tensions, and uncertainty regarding the future of the marine environment collide. Through synthesis of case study findings, we create a causal model of fishery conflict, within which we highlight factors that may heighten or mitigate the risk of conflict over shifting resources such as complex histories of power imbalance, unequal access to resources, or a lack of consistent and transparent data collection. Cooperation and equitable decision-making processes are recognized as vital components of internationally shared stock management which can promote lasting, effective, and conflict-resilient fisheries.

Published
2023

5. Drivers of conflict and resilience in shifting transboundary fisheries

Author

Vogel, Jacqueline M., Longo, Catherine, Spijkers, Jessica, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Mason, Julia, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., Cheung, William, Sumaila, U. Rashid, Munro, Gordon, Glaser, Sarah, Bell, Johann, Tian, Yongjun, Shackell, Nancy L., Selig, Elizabeth R., Le Billon, Philippe, Watson, James R., Hendrix, Cullen, Pinsky, Malin L., van Putten, Ingrid, Karr, Kendra, Papaioannou, Eva A., and Fujita, Rod

Published
2023
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14. Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

Author

Mach, Katharine J., Kraan, Caroline M., Adger, W. Neil, Buhaug, Halvard, Burke, Marshall, Fearon, James D., Field, Christopher B., Hendrix, Cullen S., Maystadt, Jean-Francois, O’Loughlin, John, Roessler, Philip, Scheffran, Jürgen, Schultz, Kenneth A., and von Uexkull, Nina

Published
2019
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17. The Cult of the Relevant: International Relations Scholars and Policy Engagement Beyond the Ivory Tower.

Author

Hendrix, Cullen S., Macdonald, Julia, Powers, Ryan, Peterson, Susan, and Tierney, Michael J.

Subjects
INTERNATIONAL relations, EXPECTATION (Psychology)
Abstract

Over the past fifteen years, a narrative has developed that IR scholars have become a "cult of the irrelevant," with declining influence on and engagement with policy debates. Despite these assertions, the evidence for limited policy engagement has been anecdotal. We investigate the extent of policy engagement—the ways in which IR scholars participate in policy-making processes and/or attempt to shape those processes—by surveying IR scholars directly about their engagement activities. We find policy engagement is pervasive among IR scholars. We draw on theories of credit-claiming to motivate expectations about how and when scholars are likely to engage with practitioners. Consistent with our expectations, much of this engagement comes in forms that involve small time commitments and provide opportunities for credit-claiming, such as media appearances and short-form, bylined op-eds and blog posts. However, sizable minorities report engaging in consulting activities not for attribution/publication and writing policy briefs, and a majority of respondents indicate they engaged in these activities several times a year or more. We find only small differences in engagement across gender and rank. Our results demonstrate that, for IR scholars, some form of policy engagement is the norm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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18. Introduction

Author

Avant, Deborah, primary, Berry, Marie E., additional, Chenoweth, Erica, additional, Epstein, Rachel, additional, Hendrix, Cullen, additional, Kaplan, Oliver, additional, and Sisk, Timothy, additional

Published
2019
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19. Conclusion

Author

Avant, Deborah, primary, Chenoweth, Erica, additional, Epstein, Rachel, additional, and Hendrix, Cullen, additional

Published
2019
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31. WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies

Author

Sumaila, U. Rashid, primary, Skerritt, Daniel J., additional, Schuhbauer, Anna, additional, Villasante, Sebastian, additional, Cisneros-Montemayor, Andrés M., additional, Sinan, Hussain, additional, Burnside, Duncan, additional, Abdallah, Patrízia Raggi, additional, Abe, Keita, additional, Addo, Kwasi A., additional, Adelsheim, Julia, additional, Adewumi, Ibukun J., additional, Adeyemo, Olanike K., additional, Adger, Neil, additional, Adotey, Joshua, additional, Advani, Sahir, additional, Afrin, Zahidah, additional, Aheto, Denis, additional, Akintola, Shehu L., additional, Akpalu, Wisdom, additional, Alam, Lubna, additional, Alava, Juan José, additional, Allison, Edward H., additional, Amon, Diva J., additional, Anderies, John M., additional, Anderson, Christopher M., additional, Andrews, Evan, additional, Angelini, Ronaldo, additional, Anna, Zuzy, additional, Antweiler, Werner, additional, Arizi, Evans K., additional, Armitage, Derek, additional, Arthur, Robert I., additional, Asare, Noble, additional, Asche, Frank, additional, Asiedu, Berchie, additional, Asuquo, Francis, additional, Badmus, Lanre, additional, Bailey, Megan, additional, Ban, Natalie, additional, Barbier, Edward B., additional, Barley, Shanta, additional, Barnes, Colin, additional, Barrett, Scott, additional, Basurto, Xavier, additional, Belhabib, Dyhia, additional, Bennett, Elena, additional, Bennett, Nathan J., additional, Benzaken, Dominique, additional, Blasiak, Robert, additional, Bohorquez, John J., additional, Bordehore, Cesar, additional, Bornarel, Virginie, additional, Boyd, David R., additional, Breitburg, Denise, additional, Brooks, Cassandra, additional, Brotz, Lucas, additional, Campbell, Donovan, additional, Cannon, Sara, additional, Cao, Ling, additional, Cardenas Campo, Juan C., additional, Carpenter, Steve, additional, Carpenter, Griffin, additional, Carson, Richard T., additional, Carvalho, Adriana R., additional, Castrejón, Mauricio, additional, Caveen, Alex J., additional, Chabi, M. Nicole, additional, Chan, Kai M. A., additional, Chapin, F. Stuart, additional, Charles, Tony, additional, Cheung, William, additional, Christensen, Villy, additional, Chuku, Ernest O., additional, Church, Trevor, additional, Clark, Colin, additional, Clarke, Tayler M., additional, Cojocaru, Andreea L., additional, Copeland, Brian, additional, Crawford, Brian, additional, Crépin, Anne-Sophie, additional, Crowder, Larry B., additional, Cury, Philippe, additional, Cutting, Allison N., additional, Daily, Gretchen C., additional, Da-Rocha, Jose Maria, additional, Das, Abhipsita, additional, de la Puente, Santiago, additional, de Zeeuw, Aart, additional, Deikumah, Savior K. S., additional, Deith, Mairin, additional, Dewitte, Boris, additional, Doubleday, Nancy, additional, Duarte, Carlos M., additional, Dulvy, Nicholas K., additional, Eddy, Tyler, additional, Efford, Meaghan, additional, Ehrlich, Paul R., additional, Elsler, Laura G., additional, Fakoya, Kafayat A., additional, Falaye, A. Eyiwunmi, additional, Fanzo, Jessica, additional, Fitzsimmons, Clare, additional, Flaaten, Ola, additional, Florko, Katie R. N., additional, Aviles, Marta Flotats, additional, Folke, Carl, additional, Forrest, Andrew, additional, Freeman, Peter, additional, Freire, Kátia M. F., additional, Froese, Rainer, additional, Frölicher, Thomas L., additional, Gallagher, Austin, additional, Garcon, Veronique, additional, Gasalla, Maria A., additional, Gephart, Jessica A., additional, Gibbons, Mark, additional, Gillespie, Kyle, additional, Giron-Nava, Alfredo, additional, Gjerde, Kristina, additional, Glaser, Sarah, additional, Golden, Christopher, additional, Gordon, Line, additional, Govan, Hugh, additional, Gryba, Rowenna, additional, Halpern, Benjamin S., additional, Hanich, Quentin, additional, Hara, Mafaniso, additional, Harley, Christopher D. G., additional, Harper, Sarah, additional, Harte, Michael, additional, Helm, Rebecca, additional, Hendrix, Cullen, additional, Hicks, Christina C., additional, Hood, Lincoln, additional, Hoover, Carie, additional, Hopewell, Kristen, additional, Horta e Costa, Bárbara B., additional, Houghton, Jonathan D. R., additional, Iitembu, Johannes. A., additional, Isaacs, Moenieba, additional, Isahaku, Sadique, additional, Ishimura, Gakushi, additional, Islam, Monirul, additional, Issifu, Ibrahim, additional, Jackson, Jeremy, additional, Jacquet, Jennifer, additional, Jensen, Olaf P., additional, Ramon, Jorge Jimenez, additional, Jin, Xue, additional, Jonah, Alberta, additional, Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste, additional, Juniper, S. Kim, additional, Jusoh, Sufian, additional, Kadagi, Isigi, additional, Kaeriyama, Masahide, additional, Kaiser, Michel J., additional, Kaiser, Brooks Alexandra, additional, Kakujaha-Matundu, Omu, additional, Karuaihe, Selma T., additional, Karumba, Mary, additional, Kemmerly, Jennifer D., additional, Khan, Ahmed S., additional, Kimani, Patrick, additional, Kleisner, Kristin, additional, Knowlton, Nancy, additional, Kotowicz, Dawn, additional, Kurien, John, additional, Kwong, Lian E., additional, Lade, Steven, additional, Laffoley, Dan, additional, Lam, Mimi E., additional, Lam, Vicky W. L., additional, Lange, Glenn-Marie, additional, Latif, Mohd T., additional, Le Billon, Philippe, additional, Le Brenne, Valérie, additional, Le Manach, Frédéric, additional, Levin, Simon A., additional, Levin, Lisa, additional, Limburg, Karin E., additional, List, John, additional, Lombard, Amanda T., additional, Lopes, Priscila F. M., additional, Lotze, Heike K., additional, Mallory, Tabitha G., additional, Mangar, Roshni S., additional, Marszalec, Daniel, additional, Mattah, Precious, additional, Mayorga, Juan, additional, McAusland, Carol, additional, McCauley, Douglas J., additional, McLean, Jeffrey, additional, McMullen, Karly, additional, Meere, Frank, additional, Mejaes, Annie, additional, Melnychuk, Michael, additional, Mendo, Jaime, additional, Micheli, Fiorenza, additional, Millage, Katherine, additional, Miller, Dana, additional, Mohamed, Kolliyil Sunil, additional, Mohammed, Essam, additional, Mokhtar, Mazlin, additional, Morgan, Lance, additional, Muawanah, Umi, additional, Munro, Gordon R., additional, Murray, Grant, additional, Mustafa, Saleem, additional, Nayak, Prateep, additional, Newell, Dianne, additional, Nguyen, Tu, additional, Noack, Frederik, additional, Nor, Adibi M., additional, Nunoo, Francis K. E., additional, Obura, David, additional, Okey, Tom, additional, Okyere, Isaac, additional, Onyango, Paul, additional, Oostdijk, Maartje, additional, Orlov, Polina, additional, Österblom, Henrik, additional, Owens, Dwight, additional, Owens, Tessa, additional, Oyinlola, Mohammed, additional, Pacoureau, Nathan, additional, Pakhomov, Evgeny, additional, Abrantes, Juliano Palacios, additional, Pascual, Unai, additional, Paulmier, Aurélien, additional, Pauly, Daniel, additional, Pèlèbè, Rodrigue Orobiyi Edéya, additional, Peñalosa, Daniel, additional, Pennino, Maria G., additional, Peterson, Garry, additional, Pham, Thuy T. T., additional, Pinkerton, Evelyn, additional, Polasky, Stephen, additional, Polunin, Nicholas V. C., additional, Prah, Ekow, additional, Ramírez, Jorge, additional, Relano, Veronica, additional, Reygondeau, Gabriel, additional, Robadue, Don, additional, Roberts, Callum, additional, Rogers, Alex, additional, Roumbedakis, Katina, additional, Sala, Enric, additional, Scheffer, Marten, additional, Segerson, Kathleen, additional, Seijo, Juan Carlos, additional, Seto, Karen C., additional, Shogren, Jason F., additional, Silver, Jennifer J., additional, Singh, Gerald, additional, Soszynski, Ambre, additional, Splichalova, Dacotah-Victoria, additional, Spring, Margaret, additional, Stage, Jesper, additional, Stephenson, Fabrice, additional, Stewart, Bryce D., additional, Sultan, Riad, additional, Suttle, Curtis, additional, Tagliabue, Alessandro, additional, Tall, Amadou, additional, Talloni-Álvarez, Nicolás, additional, Tavoni, Alessandro, additional, Taylor, D. R. Fraser, additional, Teh, Louise S. L., additional, Teh, Lydia C. L., additional, Thiebot, Jean-Baptiste, additional, Thiele, Torsten, additional, Thilsted, Shakuntala H., additional, Thumbadoo, Romola V., additional, Tigchelaar, Michelle, additional, Tol, Richard S. J., additional, Tortell, Philippe, additional, Troell, Max, additional, Uzmanoğlu, M. Selçuk, additional, van Putten, Ingrid, additional, van Santen, Gert, additional, Villaseñor-Derbez, Juan Carlos, additional, Wabnitz, Colette C. C., additional, Walsh, Melissa, additional, Walsh, J. P., additional, Wambiji, Nina, additional, Weber, Elke U., additional, Westley, Frances, additional, Williams, Stella, additional, Wisz, Mary S., additional, Worm, Boris, additional, Xiao, Lan, additional, Yagi, Nobuyuki, additional, Yamazaki, Satoshi, additional, Yang, Hong, additional, and Zeller, Dirk, additional

Published
2021
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32. Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict

Author

Mach, Katharine J., Adger, W. Neil, Buhaug, Halvard, Burke, Marshall, Fearon, James D., Field, Christopher B., Hendrix, Cullen S., Kraan, Caroline M., Maystadt, Jean-Francois, O'Loughlin, John, Roessler, Philip, Scheffran, Jürgen, Schultz, Kenneth A., von Uexkull, Nina, Mach, Katharine J., Adger, W. Neil, Buhaug, Halvard, Burke, Marshall, Fearon, James D., Field, Christopher B., Hendrix, Cullen S., Kraan, Caroline M., Maystadt, Jean-Francois, O'Loughlin, John, Roessler, Philip, Scheffran, Jürgen, Schultz, Kenneth A., and von Uexkull, Nina

Abstract

The potential links between climate and conflict are well studied, yet disagreement about the specific mechanisms and their significance for societies persists. Here, we build on assessment of the relationship between climate and organized armed conflict to define crosscutting priorities for future directions of research. They include (1) deepening insight into climate?conflict linkages and conditions under which they manifest, (2) ambitiously integrating research designs, (3) systematically exploring future risks and response options, responsive to ongoing decision-making, and (4) evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to manage climate?conflict links. The implications of this expanding scientific domain unfold in real time.

Published
2020
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33. Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict

Author

UCL - SSH/LIDAM/IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales, Mach, Katharine J., Adger, W. Neil, Buhaug, Halvard, Burke, Marshall, Fearon, James D., Field, Christopher B., Hendrix, Cullen S., Kraan, Caroline M., Maystadt, Jean-François, O'Loughlin, John, UCL - SSH/LIDAM/IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales, Mach, Katharine J., Adger, W. Neil, Buhaug, Halvard, Burke, Marshall, Fearon, James D., Field, Christopher B., Hendrix, Cullen S., Kraan, Caroline M., Maystadt, Jean-François, and O'Loughlin, John

Abstract

The potential links between climate and conflict are well studied, yet disagreement about the specific mechanisms and their significance for societies persists. Here, we build on assessment of the relationship between climate and organized armed conflict to define crosscutting priorities for future directions of research. They include (1) deepening insight into climate‐conflict linkages and conditions under which they manifest, (2) ambitiously integrating research designs, (3) systematically exploring future risks and response options, responsive to ongoing decision‐making, and (4) evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to manage climate‐conflict links. The implications of this expanding scientific domain unfold in real time.

Published
2020

36. Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict: State of Knowledge and Directions for Research

Author

Mach, Katharine, primary, Adger, Neil, additional, Buhaug, Halvard, additional, Burke, Marshall, additional, Fearon, James, additional, Field, Christopher, additional, Hendrix, Cullen, additional, Kraan, Caroline, additional, Maystadt, Jean-Francois, additional, O'Loughlin, John, additional, Roessler, Philip, additional, Scheffran, Jürgen, additional, Schultz, Kenneth, additional, and von Uexkull, Nina, additional

Published
2020
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38. Leviathan in the Tropics? : environment, state capacity, and civil conflict in the developing world

Author

Hendrix, Cullen Stevenson

Subjects
UCSD. Political science. (Discipline) Dissertations, Academic, Tropics. Econometric models Taxation, Tropics. Econometric models Economic aspects Climatic changes, Tropics. Political aspects Econometric models Climatic changes, Tropics. Environmental aspects Econometric models Agriculture, Tropics. Econometric models Agriculture and politics, Economic geography, Political geography
Abstract

I investigate the long term effects of the environment and geography on the capacity of states to generate revenue in the form of taxation and to deter violent, internal challenges to their authority. I argue that environmental and geographic factors affect the incentives for building a fiscal relationship between state and society. The theory casts the emergence of a fiscal contract as the outcome of bargaining between societal actors, who have a collective comparative advantage in the creation of wealth, and a ruler, who has a comparative advantage in coercion and provision of services. I argue that the environmentally determined resource bases in the preindustrial era of state formation affected this bargaining environment. Where agricultural production was comparatively diffuse, as in temperate zones, the incentives were stronger, whereas when agricultural production was comparatively concentrated, as in tropical zones, the incentives were weaker. In addition, terrain affected the incentives to form a strong fiscal contract by affecting the transaction costs associated with policing any bargain between state and society. As the mountainousness of terrain increases, the fiscal contract is expected to be weaker. The remainder of the dissertation sets about testing the broad implications of this theory for three empirical questions. First, I use data on 157 countries over the time period 1980-2002, to estimate the impacts of geography and climate on the tax/ GDP ratio, finding both to be strong, robust covariates of the tax/GDP ratio. Second, I challenge the conventional discourse relating the environment and geography to civil conflict, arguing and demonstrating that the primary effect of geography on conflict is mediated by its effect on the strength of state institutions, operationalized as the fiscal contract. Using two-stage probit models, I demonstrate that the tax/GDP ratio, as instrumented by measures of climate and terrain, is robustly and negatively associated with civil conflict incidence. Third, I inform conjectures about the future of climate and conflict by estimating the impact of long term and short term sources of environmental variability on the onset of civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Published
2008

39. Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict

Author

Mach, Katharine J., primary, Adger, W. Neil, additional, Buhaug, Halvard, additional, Burke, Marshall, additional, Fearon, James D., additional, Field, Christopher B., additional, Hendrix, Cullen S., additional, Kraan, Caroline M., additional, Maystadt, Jean‐Francois, additional, O'Loughlin, John, additional, Roessler, Philip, additional, Scheffran, Jürgen, additional, Schultz, Kenneth A., additional, and Uexkull, Nina, additional

Published
2020
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41. Economic Diplomacy and Genocide in Xinjiang.

Author

HENDRIX, CULLEN and NOLAND, MARCUS

Subjects
*OLYMPIC Games, *ECONOMIC sanctions, *FORCED labor, *DIPLOMACY, *MUSLIMS, *BOYCOTTS, *CONSUMER behavior, *GENOCIDE
Abstract

The government of China is engaged in a systematic campaign to eradicate culturally, if not physically, the Uyghur Muslim minority of Xinjiang Autonomous Region. The US State Department characterizes this policy as "genocide," documenting an extensive list of continuing abuses against Uyghurs and members of other religious and ethnic minority groups. Having made this assessment, the issue is how best to respond. How can economic diplomacy be brought to bear to ensure foreign consumers are not unwitting accomplices to these abuses, including the use of forced labor, and how can those same policy tools be used to name, shame, and try to change behavior of the world's largest exporter? A multifaceted response is required, combining targeted economic sanctions, coordinated responses to refugees fleeing Xinjiang, private industry-led initiatives, and more symbolic acts including a boycott of the 2022 Olympic Games in Beijing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021

42. Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

Author

UCL - SSH/LIDAM/IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales, Mach, Katharine J., Kraan, Caroline M., Adger, W. Neil, Buhaug, Halvard, Burke, Marshall, Fearon, James D., Field, Christopher B., Hendrix, Cullen S., Maystadt, Jean-François, O’Loughlin, John, UCL - SSH/LIDAM/IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales, Mach, Katharine J., Kraan, Caroline M., Adger, W. Neil, Buhaug, Halvard, Burke, Marshall, Fearon, James D., Field, Christopher B., Hendrix, Cullen S., Maystadt, Jean-François, and O’Loughlin, John

Abstract

Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.

Published
2019

43. Oil and War: An Exchange.

Author

Colgan, Jeff D., Hendrix, Cullen S., Meierding, Emily, Jang, Hye Ryeon, and Smith, Benjamin

Subjects
*INTERNATIONAL conflict, *PETROLEUM, *REGRESSION discontinuity design
Abstract

The same holds for whether the threshold of 10% of net petroleum exports as a share of GDP for a country to be considered a petrostate is appropriate, though the resulting list makes sense to me.[34] Even as looming energy transitions and resultant lower demand and prices for oil are poised to result in huge changes to the nature of oil-rich countries' political economies, oil and oil-rich states will continue to play important roles in geopolitics for at least the next several decades. As Jang and Smith observe, the Iran-Iraq War included an exceptional number of attacks on third-party states. 44 Jang and Smith state that the oil price x petrostate interaction variable is significant with 95% confidence in Hendrix's original study. Confidence Colgan affirms the petro-aggression thesis in part by stating that, "even when we statistically isolate [the Iran-Iraq War], we still have more reason to believe (with roughly 88% confidence) that petro-revolutionary states are correlated with interstate conflict" (637-643). The key variable is I petro-revolutionary i , a dichotomous indicator for a state that is both a "petrostate" (defined as a state with net oil exports of at least 10% of gross domestic product (GDP)) and has a revolutionary government. [Extracted from the article]

Published
2021
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48. Will climate change lead to more world conflict?

Author

O'Loughlin, John and Hendrix, Cullen

Subjects
Climate change -- International aspects -- Political aspects -- Economic aspects, Geopolitics -- Forecasts and trends, Apartheid, Political campaigns, Presidential candidates, Global temperature changes, Legislators, Campaign debates, Urban planning, Market trend/market analysis, Business, Computers and office automation industries, Telecommunications industry
Abstract

Byline: John O'Loughlin;Cullen Hendrix During last month's U.S. Democratic presidential candidate debates, former congressman Beto O'Rourke, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker, and former housing and urban development secretary Julián [...]

Published
2019

50. The Future is a Moving Target: Predicting Political Instability.

Author

Bowlsby, Drew, Chenoweth, Erica, Hendrix, Cullen, and Moyer, Jonathan D.

Subjects
POLITICAL stability, WAR
Abstract

Previous research by Goldstone et al. (2010) generated a highly accurate predictive model of state-level political instability. Notably, this model identifies political institutions – and partial democracy with factionalism, specifically – as the most compelling factors explaining when and where instability events are likely to occur. This article reassesses the model's explanatory power and makes three related points: (1) the model's predictive power varies substantially over time; (2) its predictive power peaked in the period used for out-of-sample validation (1995–2004) in the original study and (3) the model performs relatively poorly in the more recent period. The authors find that this decline is not simply due to the Arab Uprisings, instability events that occurred in autocracies. Similar issues are found with attempts to predict nonviolent uprisings (Chenoweth and Ulfelder 2017) and armed conflict onset and continuation (Hegre et al. 2013). These results inform two conclusions: (1) the drivers of instability are not constant over time and (2) care must be exercised in interpreting prediction exercises as evidence in favor or dispositive of theoretical mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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