Search

Epidemic models of susceptibles, exposed, infected, recovered and deceased (SΕIRD) presume homogeneity, constant rates and fixed, bilinear structure. They produce short-range, single-peak responses, hardly attained under restrictive measures. Tuned via uncertain I,R,D data, they cannot faithfully represent long-range evolution. A robust epidemic model is presented that relates infected with the entry rate to health care units (HCUs) via population averages. Model uncertainty is circumvented by not presuming any specific model structure, or constant rates. The model is tuned via data of low uncertainty, by direct monitoring: (a) of entries to HCUs (accurately known, in contrast to delayed and non-reliable I,R,D data) and (b) of scaled model parameters, representing population averages. The model encompasses random propagation of infections, delayed, randomly distributed entries to HCUs and varying exodus of non-hospitalized, as disease severity subdues. It closely follows multi-pattern growth of epidemics with possible recurrency, viral strains and mutations, varying environmental conditions, immunity levels, control measures and efficacy thereof, including vaccination. The results enable real-time identification of infected and infection rate. They allow design of resilient, cost-effective policy in real time, targeting directly the key variable to be controlled (entries to HCUs) below current HCU capacity. As demonstrated in ex post case studies, the policy can lead to lower overall cost of epidemics, by balancing the trade-off between the social cost of infected and the economic contraction associated with social distancing and mobility restriction measures., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.)

Infection of Western aid workers with Ebola virus disease during the 2014-2016 West African outbreak demonstrated the need for medical evacuation to high-level isolation units in Europe and the United States. In Norway, an ad hoc preparedness team was established for aeromedical evacuation in case of need. In October 2014, this team transported an infected aid worker from the military section of Oslo Airport to Oslo University Hospital. To maintain and strengthen the capacity for domestic ambulance transport on the ground and in the air, the Norwegian Medical Emergency Response Team for High Consequence Infectious Diseases (in Norway known as "Nasjonalt medisinsk utrykningsteam for høyrisikosmitte"), or NORTH, was established as a permanent service in 2017. Recognizing the expertise of this domestic team, Norway was subsequently entrusted with the task of enhancing the European aeromedical transport capacity for high-consequence infectious diseases and establishing the Norwegian rescEU Jet Air Ambulance for Transport of Highly Infectious Patients, or NOJAHIP, in 2022. In this case study, we present experiences and lessons learned from these 2 services and discuss how they can be further developed.

Developing and sustaining relationships and networks before an emergency occurs is crucial. The Biocontainment Unit Leadership Workgroup is a consortium of the 13 Regional Emerging Special Pathogen Treatment Centers in the United States. Established in 2017, the volunteer-based workgroup is composed of operational leaders dedicated to maintaining readiness for special pathogen care. Monthly meetings focus on addressing operational challenges, sharing best practices, and brainstorming solutions to common problems. Task forces are leveraged to tackle more complex issues that are identified as priorities. In 2022, members of the workgroup were harnessed for response efforts related to mpox, Sudan ebolavirus, and Marburg virus disease. The weekly Outbreak Readiness call is a shared effort between the Biocontainment Unit Leadership Workgroup and the Special Pathogens Research Network of the National Emerging Special Pathogens Training and Education Center. Call participants included leaders of the Regional Emerging Special Pathogen Treatment Centers and federal partners who shared weekly updates on operational readiness of units, case counts, laboratory capacity, available medical countermeasures, and other pertinent information. The routine exchange of real-time information enabled learning and collegial sharing of experiences, highlighted the experience of the network to federal partners, and provided situational awareness of special pathogen outbreaks across the country. The consortium enabled this rapid convening of partners to meet an urgent need for special pathogen response. The weekly Outbreak Readiness call is a communication model and scalable framework that serves both domestic preparedness efforts and international efforts should the need for a collaborative global response arise. In this case study, we describe the framework and experience of this partnership, along with the structure of rapid deployment for group convening.

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of orthoebolavirus antibodies in Madina Oula, a non-epidemic rural area in Guinea, in 2022., Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from March 14 to April 3, 2022 involving recording household and socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle data, and collecting dried blood spots from 878 individuals in 235 households. Dried blood spots were tested using multiplex serology to detect antibodies to different orthoebolaviruses: Ebola virus, Bundibugyo virus, Sudan virus, Reston virus, and Bombali virus. Seroprevalence was estimated with a 95% confidence interval and a Z-test was performed to compare the seropositivity between children aged under 15 years and those over 15 years. Household and participant characteristics were analyzed using descriptive statistic, and socio-historical conditions were discussed., Results: The serological analysis conducted in 2022 on 878 participants revealed varying reactivity to orthoebolavirus antigens, notably, with glycoprotein antigens, particularly, glycoprotein Sudan virus (16%). A total of 21 samples exhibited reactivity with at least two antigens, with a median age of 27 years (interquartile range 10.00-35.00), ranging from 2 to 80 years. There is no significant difference between seropositivity in children aged under 15 (2.86%) years and those over 15 (2.14%) years. The antibody presence varied per village, with the highest prevalence observed in Ouassou and Dar-es-Salam., Conclusions: Serological data in a region unaffected by recent Ebola outbreaks indicate possible orthoebolavirus endemicity, emphasizing the need for preparedness against known or novel orthoebolaviruses with potential cross-reactivity., Competing Interests: Declarations of competing interest The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

This case study describes a feasibility assessment of a novel isolation care tent used in health facilities in Uganda during the 2022 Sudan ebolavirus outbreak. The Isolation System for Treatment and Agile Response to High-Risk Infections Model 1B (ISTARI 1B) is a single-occupancy, portable, negative-pressure isolation tent designed for the safe delivery of standard care to patients with a communicable disease, including Ebola disease (Sudan). At the request of the Uganda Ministry of Health, the Makerere University Infectious Diseases Institute and University of Nebraska Medical Center partnered to evaluate 7 health facilities across 4 districts in Uganda for infrastructure, case management, and infection prevention and control (IPC) capacity relevant to isolation care and ISTARI 1B use. A 3-day workshop was held with IPC leaders to provide familiarization and hands-on experience with the ISTARI 1B, delineate appropriate use scenarios in Ugandan healthcare settings, contextualize ISTARI 1B use in case management and IPC workflows, develop a framework for site assessment and implementation readiness, and consider ongoing monitoring, assessment, and intervention tools. Workshop participants performed a comprehensive site assessment and mock deployment of the ISTARI 1B. In this case study, we describe lessons learned from health facility assessments and workshop outcomes and offer recommendations to support successful ISTARI 1B implementation. Use scenarios and implementation strategies were identified across facility levels, including tools for site assessment, training, risk communication, and ongoing quality and safety monitoring.

Background: Traditionally in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), centralised Ebola treatment centres (ETCs) have been set exclusively for Ebola virus disease (EVD) case management during outbreaks. During the 2020 EVD outbreak in DRC's Equateur Province, existing health centres were equipped as decentralised treatment centres (DTC) to improve access for patients with suspected EVD. Between ETCs and DTCs, we compared the time from symptom onset to admission and diagnosis among patients with suspected EVD., Methods: This was a cohort study based on analysis of a line-list containing demographic and clinical information of patients with suspected EVD admitted to any EVD health facility during the outbreak., Results: Of 2359 patients with suspected EVD, 363 (15%) were first admitted to a DTC. Of 1996 EVD-suspected patients initially admitted to an ETC, 72 (4%) were confirmed as EVD-positive. Of 363 EVD-suspected patients initially admitted to a DTC, 6 (2%) were confirmed and managed as EVD-positive in the DTC. Among all EVD-suspected patients, the median (interquartile range) duration between symptom onset and admission was 2 (1-4) days in a DTC compared to 4 (2-7) days in an ETC (p<0.001). Similarly, time from symptom onset to admission was significantly shorter among EVD-suspected patients ultimately diagnosed as EVD-negative., Conclusions: Since <5% of the EVD-suspected patients admitted were eventually diagnosed with EVD, there is a need for better screening to optimise resource utilization and outbreak control. Only one in seven EVD-suspected patients were admitted to a DTC first, as the DTCs were piloted in a limited and phased manner. However, there is a case to be made for considering decentralized care especially in remote and hard-to-reach areas in places like the DRC to facilitate early access to care, contain viral shedding by patients with EVD and ensure no disrupted provision of non-EVD services., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2024 Lampaert E et al.)

Background: Mobile health (mHealth) technologies are increasingly used in contact tracing and case finding, enhancing and replacing traditional methods for managing infectious diseases such as Ebola, tuberculosis, COVID-19, and HIV. However, the variations in their development approaches, implementation scopes, and effectiveness introduce uncertainty regarding their potential to improve public health outcomes., Objective: We conducted this systematic review to explore how mHealth technologies are developed, implemented, and evaluated. We aimed to deepen our understanding of mHealth's role in contact tracing, enhancing both the implementation and overall health outcomes., Methods: We searched and reviewed studies conducted in Africa focusing on tuberculosis, Ebola, HIV, and COVID-19 and published between 1990 and 2023 using the PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar databases. We followed the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines to review, synthesize, and report the findings from articles that met our criteria., Results: We identified 11,943 articles, but only 19 (0.16%) met our criteria, revealing a large gap in technologies specifically aimed at case finding and contact tracing of infectious diseases. These technologies addressed a broad spectrum of diseases, with a predominant focus on Ebola and tuberculosis. The type of technologies used ranged from mobile data collection platforms and smartphone apps to advanced geographic information systems (GISs) and bidirectional communication systems. Technologies deployed in programmatic settings, often developed using design thinking frameworks, were backed by significant funding and often deployed at a large scale but frequently lacked rigorous evaluations. In contrast, technologies used in research settings, although providing more detailed evaluation of both technical performance and health outcomes, were constrained by scale and insufficient funding. These challenges not only prevented these technologies from being tested on a wider scale but also hindered their ability to provide actionable and generalizable insights that could inform public health policies effectively., Conclusions: Overall, this review underscored a need for organized development approaches and comprehensive evaluations. A significant gap exists between the expansive deployment of mHealth technologies in programmatic settings, which are typically well funded and rigorously developed, and the more robust evaluations necessary to ascertain their effectiveness. Future research should consider integrating the robust evaluations often found in research settings with the scale and developmental rigor of programmatic implementations. By embedding advanced research methodologies within programmatic frameworks at the design thinking stage, mHealth technologies can potentially become technically viable and effectively meet specific contact tracing health outcomes to inform policy effectively., (©Don Lawrence Mudzengi, Herbert Chomutare, Jeniffer Nagudi, Thobani Ntshiqa, J Lucian Davis, Salome Charalambous, Kavindhran Velen. Originally published in JMIR mHealth and uHealth (https://mhealth.jmir.org), 26.08.2024.)

Background: Skeletal muscle injury in Ebola virus disease (EVD) has been reported, but its association with morbidity and mortality remains poorly defined., Methods: This retrospective study included patients admitted to 2 EVD treatment units over an 8-month period in 2019 during an EVD epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo., Results: An overall 333 patients (median age, 30 years; 58% female) had at least 1 creatine kinase (CK) measurement (n = 2229; median, 5/patient [IQR, 1-11]). Among patients, 271 (81%) had an elevated CK level (>380 U/L); 202 (61%) had rhabdomyolysis (CK >1000 IU/L); and 45 (14%) had severe rhabdomyolysis (≥5000 U/L). Among survivors, the maximum CK level was a median 1600 (IQR, 550-3400), peaking 3.4 days after admission (IQR, 2.3-5.5) and decreasing thereafter. Among fatal cases, the CK rose monotonically until death, with a median maximum CK level of 2900 U/L (IQR, 1500-4900). Rhabdomyolysis at admission was an independent predictor of acute kidney injury (adjusted odds ratio, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.2-3.8]; P = .0065) and mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.03-2.9]; P = .037)., Conclusions: Rhabdomyolysis is associated with acute kidney injury and mortality in patients with EVD. These findings may inform clinical practice by identifying laboratory monitoring priorities and highlighting the importance of fluid management., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. All authors: No reported conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD) and Marburg virus disease (MVD) in sub-Saharan Africa illustrate the need to better understand animal reservoirs, burden of disease, and human transmission of filoviruses. This protocol outlines a systematic literature review to assess the prevalence of filoviruses that infect humans in sub-Saharan Africa. A secondary aim is to qualitatively describe and evaluate the assays used to assess prevalence., Methods: The data sources for this systematic review include PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. Titles, abstracts, and full texts will be reviewed for inclusion by a primary reviewer and then by a team of secondary reviewers, and data will be extracted using a pre-specified and piloted data extraction form. The review will include human cross-sectional studies, cohort studies, and randomized controlled trials conducted in sub-Saharan Africa up until March 13, 2024 that have been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, with no language restrictions. Prevalence will be stratified by pathogen, population, assay, and sampling methodology and presented in forest plots with estimated prevalence and 95% confidence intervals. If there are enough studies within a stratum, I 2 statistics will be calculated (using R statistical software), and data will be pooled if heterogeneity is low. In addition, assays used to detect infection will be evaluated. All studies included in the review will be assessed for quality and risk of bias using the JBI Prevalence Critical Appraisal Tool and for certainty using the GRADE certainty ratings., Discussion: Accurately measuring the rate of exposure to filoviruses infecting humans in sub-Saharan Africa using prevalence provides an essential understanding of natural history, transmission, and the role of subclinical infection. This systematic review will identify research gaps and provide directions for future research seeking to improve our understanding of filovirus infections. Understanding the natural history, transmission, and the role of subclinical infection is critical for predicting the impact of an intervention on disease burden., Systematic Review Registration: In accordance with the guidelines outlined in the PRISMA-P methodology, this protocol was registered with PROSPERO on April 7, 2023 (ID: CRD42023415358)., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus disease highlighted the importance of overhauling and transforming healthcare systems in West Africa to improve the ability of individual countries to deal with infectious diseases. As part of this effort, in November 2016 the West African Health Organization (WAHO) began the process of institutionalizing the One Health (OH) approach to health security across the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The lack of clear metrics and evaluation frameworks to measure the progress of OH implementation in West Africa has been reported as a challenge. Therefore, this study sought to assess and explore whether the existing metrics of global health security frameworks can measure the successful implementation of OH activities, evaluate the progress made since 2016, and identify key areas for improvement in the region., Method: The study employed predetermined keywords to select indicators from the International Health Regulations (IHR) Monitoring Frameworks, specifically the State Party Self-Assessment Annual Report (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation (JEE), deemed relevant to the OH approach. In addition, the COVID-19 performance index scores (severity and recovery) for June 2022 were extracted from the Global COVID-19 Index (GCI). The GCI Recovery Index evaluated the major recovery parameters reported daily to indicate how a country performed on the path to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic compared to other countries. National documents were also analyzed using categorical variables to assess the performance status of OH platforms across implementing countries. A quantitative analysis of these indicators was conducted and supplemented with qualitative data gathered through interviews with key stakeholders. Between March and April 2022, we conducted 18 key informant interviews with purposively selected representatives from regional governmental agencies and international multilateral agencies, including ECOWAS member states. Interviews were conducted online, transcribed, and analysed following the tenets of thematic analysis., Results: Our quantitative analysis revealed no significant association between the implementation status of OH activities and any of the selected indicators from SPAR and JEE. The descriptive analysis of the JEE scores at the country level revealed that countries with existing OH platforms scored relatively higher on the selected JEE indicators than other countries in the pre-implementation stage. OH implementation status did not significantly affect COVID-19 recovery and severity indices. The qualitative findings with relevant stakeholders revealed noteworthy challenges related to insufficient human capacity, inadequate coordination, and a lack of government funding for the sustainability of OH initiatives. Nonetheless, countries in the ECOWAS region are making progress toward the integration of OH into their health security systems., Conclusion: Standardized metrics were used to assess the implementation and efficacy of OH systems in the ECOWAS region. Current indicators for monitoring global health security frameworks lack specificity and fail to comprehensively capture essential OH components, particularly at the sub-national level. To ensure consistency and effectiveness across countries, OH implementation metrics that align with global frameworks such as IHR should be developed., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Early isolation and care for Ebola disease patients at Ebola Treatment Units (ETU) curb outbreak spread. We evaluated time to ETU entry and associated factors during the 2022 Sudan virus disease (SVD) outbreak in Uganda., Methods: We included persons with RT-PCR-confirmed SVD with onset September 20-November 30, 2022. We categorized days from symptom onset to ETU entry ("delays") as short (≤2), moderate (3-5), and long (≥6); the latter two were "delayed isolation." We categorized symptom onset timing as "earlier" or "later," using October 15 as a cut-off. We assessed demographics, symptom onset timing, and awareness of contact status as predictors for delayed isolation. We explored reasons for early vs late isolation using key informant interviews., Results: Among 118 case-patients, 25 (21%) had short, 43 (36%) moderate, and 50 (43%) long delays. Seventy-five (64%) had symptom onset later in the outbreak. Earlier symptom onset increased risk of delayed isolation (crude risk ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval (1.2-2.8]). Awareness of contact status and SVD symptoms, and belief that early treatment-seeking was lifesaving facilitated early care-seeking. Patients with long delays reported fear of ETUs and lack of transport as contributors., Conclusion: Delayed isolation was common early in the outbreak. Strong contact tracing and community engagement could expedite presentation to ETUs., Competing Interests: Declarations of competing interest The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background/objectives: Studies on uveitis in Sierra Leone were conducted prior to the Ebola Virus Disease epidemic of 2013-16, which was associated with uveitis in 20% of survivors. They did not include imaging or investigation of tuberculosis and used laboratory services outside the country. We performed a cross-sectional study on patients presenting with uveitis to establish their clinical characteristics and identify the impact of in-country laboratory diagnoses., Methods: We invited uveitis cases presenting to Eye Clinics in Sierra Leone from March to September 2022 to participate in the study. They underwent a diagnostic work-up, including fundus and ocular coherence tomography imaging. Active uveitis cases underwent further investigations including serology and immunological tests for syphilis, tuberculosis, herpetic viruses and HIV and chest radiographs., Results: We recruited 128 patients. The median age was 34 (IQR 19) years and there was an equal gender split. Panuveitis was the predominant anatomical uveitis type (n = 51, 40%), followed by posterior uveitis (n = 36, 28%). Bilateral disease affected 40 patients (31%). Active uveitis was identified in 75 (59%) cases. ICD 11 definition of blindness with VA < 3/60 occurred in 55 (33%) uveitis eyes. Aetiology of uveitis from clinical and laboratory assessment demonstrated that most cases were of undifferentiated aetiology (n = 66, 52%), followed by toxoplasmosis (n = 46, 36%). Trauma contributed to eight (6%) cases, syphilis to 5 (4%) cases and Ebola to 2 (2%)., Conclusions: Uveitis was associated with high levels of visual impairment. Posterior and panuveitis contributed to the highest proportion of uveitis cases. Laboratory studies helped differentiate syphilis as a significant aetiology of uveitis., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is associated with multisystem organ failure and high mortality. Severe hypoglycaemia is common, life-threatening, and correctable in critically ill patients, but glucose monitoring may be limited in EVD treatment units., Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of patients admitted to EVD treatment units in Butembo and Katwa, Eastern DRC. Glucose measurements were done using a handheld glucometer at the bedside or using the Piccolo xpress Chemistry Analyzer on venous samples., Findings: 384 patients (median age 30 years (interquartile range, IQR, 20-45), 57% female) and 6422 glucose measurements (median 11 per patient, IQR 4-22) were included in the analysis. Severe hypoglycaemia (≤2.2 mmol/L) and hyperglycaemia (>10 mmol/L) were recorded at least once during the ETU admission in 97 (25%) and 225 (59%) patients, respectively. A total of 2004 infusions of glucose-containing intravenous solutions were administered to 302 patients (79%) with a median cumulative dose of 175g (IQR 100-411). The overall case fatality rate was 157/384 (41%) and was 2.2-fold higher (95% CI 1.3-3.8) in patients with severe hypoglycaemia than those without hypoglycaemia (p = 0.0042). In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, periods of severe hypoglycaemia (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 6.2, 95% CI 3.2-12, p < 0.0001) and moderate hypoglycaemia (aHR 3.0, 95% CI 1.9-4.8, p < 0.0001) were associated with elevated mortality., Interpretation: Hypoglycaemia is common in EVD, requires repeated correction with intravenous dextrose solutions, and is associated with mortality., Funding: This study was not supported by any specific funding., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests SM is employed by Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, and is listed as inventor on the patent application for mAb 114, US Application No.62/087, 087 (PCT Application No. PCT/US2015/060,733) related to anti-Ebola virus antibodies and their use. SM receives royalties paid by the NIH Office of Financial Management (OFM)., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic galvanized tremendous growth in models for emerging zoonotic and vector-borne viruses. Therefore, we have reviewed the main goals and methods of models to guide scientists and decision-makers. The elements of models for emerging viruses vary across spectrums: from understanding the past to forecasting the future, using data across space and time, and using statistical versus mechanistic methods. Hybrid/ensemble models and artificial intelligence offer new opportunities for modeling. Despite this progress, challenges remain in translating models into actionable decisions, particularly in areas at highest risk for viral disease outbreaks. To address this issue, we must identify gaps in models for specific viruses, strengthen validation, and involve policymakers in model development., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Early detection of outbreaks requires robust surveillance and reporting at both community and health facility levels. Uganda implements Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) for priority diseases and uses the national District Health Information System (DHIS2) for reporting. However, investigations after the first case in the 2022 Uganda Sudan virus outbreak was confirmed on September 20, 2022 revealed many community deaths among persons with Ebola-like symptoms as far back as August. Most had sought care at private facilities. We explored possible gaps in surveillance that may have resulted in late detection of the Sudan virus disease (SVD) outbreak in Uganda., Methods: Using a standardized tool, we evaluated core surveillance capacities at public and private health facilities at the hospital level and below in three sub-counties reporting the earliest SVD cases in the outbreak. Key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted with 12 purposively-selected participants from the district local government. Focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with community members from six villages where early probable SVD cases were identified. KIIs and FGDs focused on experiences with SVD and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF) surveillance in the district. Thematic data analysis was used for qualitative data., Results: Forty-six (85%) of 54 health facilities surveyed were privately-owned, among which 42 (91%) did not report to DHIS2 and 39 (85%) had no health worker trained on IDSR; both metrics were 100% in the eight public facilities. Weak community-based surveillance, poor private facility engagement, low suspicion index for VHF among health workers, inability of facilities to analyze and utilize surveillance data, lack of knowledge about to whom to report, funding constraints for surveillance activities, lack of IDSR training, and lack of all-cause mortality surveillance were identified as gaps potentially contributing to delayed outbreak detection., Conclusion: Both systemic and knowledge-related gaps in IDSR surveillance in SVD-affected districts contributed to the delayed detection of the 2022 Uganda SVD outbreak. Targeted interventions to address these gaps in both public and private facilities across Uganda could help avert similar situations in the future., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Filoviruses are negative-sense single-stranded RNA viruses often associated with severe and highly lethal hemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman primates, with case fatality rates as high as 90%. Of the known filoviruses, Ebola virus (EBOV), the prototype of the genus Orthoebolavirus , has been a major public health concern as it frequently causes outbreaks and was associated with an unprecedented outbreak in several Western African countries in 2013-2016, affecting 28,610 people, 11,308 of whom died. Thereafter, filovirus research mostly focused on EBOV, paying less attention to other equally deadly orthoebolaviruses (Sudan, Bundibugyo, and Taï Forest viruses) and orthomarburgviruses (Marburg and Ravn viruses). Some of these filoviruses have emerged in nonendemic areas, as exemplified by four Marburg disease outbreaks recorded in Guinea, Ghana, Tanzania, and Equatorial Guinea between 2021 and 2023. Similarly, the Sudan virus has reemerged in Uganda 10 years after the last recorded outbreak. Moreover, several novel bat-derived filoviruses have been discovered in the last 15 years (Lloviu virus, Bombali virus, Měnglà virus, and Dehong virus), most of which are poorly characterized but may display a wide host range. These novel viruses have the potential to cause outbreaks in humans. Several gaps are yet to be addressed regarding known and emerging filoviruses. These gaps include the virus ecology and pathogenicity, mechanisms of zoonotic transmission, host range and susceptibility, and the development of specific medical countermeasures. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge on non-Ebola filoviruses (Bombali virus, Bundibugyo virus, Reston virus, Sudan virus, Tai Forest virus, Marburg virus, Ravn virus, Lloviu virus, Měnglà virus, and Dehong virus) and suggest some strategies to accelerate specific countermeasure development.

The 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak prompted the deployment to Sierra Leone of non-governmental organisations and the UK Joint Inter-Agency Taskforce including personnel from the UK Defence Medical Services (DMS). Some of these military personnel partnered with the Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces (RSLAF) as an example of Defence Healthcare Engagement (DHE).UK DMS mentors assisted RSLAF to plan and upscale Ebola treatment units. Use of military analysis and planning tools facilitated robust and flexible plans to be produced while under significant time and resource constraints. Macrosimulation exercises enabled large numbers to be trained and standard operating procedures to be developed.Fundamental to success was a mutual respect between the DHE partners while maintaining host nation primacy throughout. DHE in this example offered advantages over non-governmental organisations. Transferable lessons for future DHE from the RSLAF-UK DMS partnership are described in this paper., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a rare but contagious disease caused by Ebola Virus (EBOV). The first Ebola outbreaks were reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) before subsequent reported cases in Western and East African countries, including Uganda, which borders Tanzania. Proximity to EVD-infected countries raises the prospect of cross-border transmission, raising alarm in Tanzania. This study aimed to explore the cultural practices likely to prevent or escalate EVD transmission in the event of its outbreak in the country., Methods: This rapid ethnographic assessment employed observation, interviews, and focus group discussions to collect data from people with diverse characteristics in five regions of Tanzania Mainland namely, Kagera, Kigoma, Mwanza and Songwe regions and Zanzibar Island. The qualitative data was then subjected to thematic analysis., Findings: Cultural practices may escalate the transmission of EVD and hinder its prevention and control. These cultural practices include caring sick people at home, confirmation of death, mourning, and body preparation for burial. Communal life, ceremonies, and social gatherings were other aspects observed to have the potential for compounding EVD transmission and hindering its containment in case of an outbreak., Conclusion: Cultural practices may escalate EVD transmission as identified in the study settings. As such, Risk Communication and Community Engagement (RCCE) activities should be interventionist in transforming cultural practices that may escalate the spread of EVD as part of preparedness, prevention, and control efforts in the event of an outbreak., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: On 20 September 2022, the Ugandan Ministry of Health declared an outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Sudan ebolavirus., Methods: From 6 October 2022 to 10 January 2023, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) staff conducted public health assessments at five US ports of entry for travellers identified as having been in Uganda in the past 21 days. CDC also recommended that state, local and territorial health departments ('health departments') conduct post-arrival monitoring of these travellers. CDC provided traveller contact information, daily to 58 health departments, and collected health department data regarding monitoring outcomes., Results: Among 11 583 travellers screened, 132 (1%) required additional assessment due to potential exposures or symptoms of concern. Fifty-three (91%) health departments reported receiving traveller data from CDC for 10 114 (87%) travellers, of whom 8499 (84%) were contacted for monitoring, 1547 (15%) could not be contacted and 68 (1%) had no reported outcomes. No travellers with high-risk exposures or Ebola disease were identified., Conclusion: Entry risk assessment and post-arrival monitoring of travellers are resource-intensive activities that had low demonstrated yield during this and previous outbreaks. The efficiency of future responses could be improved by incorporating an assessment of risk of importation of disease, accounting for individual travellers' potential for exposure, and expanded use of methods that reduce burden to federal agencies, health departments, and travellers., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Society of Travel Medicine 2024.)

Important policy questions during infections disease outbreaks include: i) How effective are particular interventions?; ii) When can resource-intensive interventions be removed? We used mathematical modelling to address these questions during the 2017 Ebola outbreak in Likati Health Zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Eight cases occurred before 15 May 2017, when the Ebola Response Team (ERT; co-ordinated by the World Health Organisation and DRC Ministry of Health) was deployed to reduce transmission. We used a branching process model to estimate that, pre-ERT arrival, the reproduction number was R = 1.49 (95% credible interval ( 0.67, 2.81 ) ). The risk of further cases occurring without the ERT was estimated to be 0.97 (97%). However, no cases materialised, suggesting that the ERT's measures were effective. We also estimated the risk of withdrawing the ERT in real-time. By the actual ERT withdrawal date (2 July 2017), the risk of future cases without the ERT was only 0.01, indicating that the ERT withdrawal decision was safe. We evaluated the sensitivity of our results to the estimated R value and considered different criteria for determining the ERT withdrawal date. This research provides an extensible modelling framework that can be used to guide decisions about when to relax interventions during future outbreaks., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Following the apparent final case in an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, the decision to declare the outbreak over must balance societal benefits of relaxing interventions against the risk of resurgence. Estimates of the end-of-outbreak probability (the probability that no future cases will occur) provide quantitative evidence that can inform the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration. An existing modeling approach for estimating the end-of-outbreak probability requires comprehensive contact tracing data describing who infected whom to be available, but such data are often unavailable or incomplete during outbreaks. Here, we develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo-based approach that extends the previous method and does not require contact tracing data. Considering data from two EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we find that data describing who infected whom are not required to resolve uncertainty about when to declare an outbreak over.

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) has been endemic since 1976, and the case fatality rate is extremely high. EVD is spread by infected animals, symptomatic individuals, dead bodies, and contaminated environment. In this paper, we formulate an EVD model with four transmission modes and a time delay describing the incubation period. Through dynamical analysis, we verify the importance of blocking the infection source of infected animals. We get the basic reproduction number without considering the infection source of infected animals. And, it is proven that the model has a globally attractive disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than unity; the disease eventually becomes endemic when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Taking the EVD epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014-2016 as an example, we complete the data fitting by combining the effect of the media to obtain the unknown parameters, the basic reproduction number and its time-varying reproduction number. It is shown by parameter sensitivity analysis that the contact rate and the removal rate of infected group have the greatest influence on the prevalence of the disease. And, the disease-controlling thresholds of these two parameters are obtained. In addition, according to the existing vaccination strategy, only the inoculation ratio in high-risk areas is greater than 0.4, the effective reproduction number can be less than unity. And, the earlier the vaccination time, the greater the inoculation ratio, and the faster the disease can be controlled., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Introduction: The purpose of this review is to examine African Ebola outbreaks from their first discovery to the present, to determine how the medical and public health response has changed and identify the causes for those changes. We sought to describe what is now known about the epidemiology and spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from the significant outbreaks that have occurred and outbreak control methods applied under often challenging circumstances. Given the substantial role that the U.S. Government and the U.S. DoD have played in the 2014 to 2016 West African Ebola outbreak, the role of the DoD and the U.S. Africa Command in controlling EVD is described., Materials and Methods: A descriptive method design was used to collect and analyze all available Ebola outbreak literature using the PubMed database. An initial literature search was conducted by searching for, obtaining, and reading original source articles on all major global Ebola outbreaks. To conduct a focused search, we used initial search terms "Ebola outbreak," "Ebola virus disease," "Ebola response," "Ebola countermeasures," and also included each country's name where Ebola cases are known to have occurred. From the 4,673 unique articles obtained from this search and subsequent article title review, 307 articles were identified for potential inclusion. Following abstract and article review, 45 original source articles were used to compile the history of significant Ebola outbreaks. From this compilation, articles focused on each respective subsection of this review to delineate and describe the history of EVD and response, identifying fundamental changes, were obtained and incorporated., Results: We present known Ebola virus and disease attributes, including a general description, seasonality and location, transmission capacity, clinical symptoms, surveillance, virology, historical EVD outbreaks and response, international support for Ebola outbreak response, U.S. DoD support, medical countermeasures supporting outbreak response, remaining gaps to include policy limitations, regional instability, climate change, migration, and urbanization, public health education and infrastructure, and virus persistence and public awareness., Conclusions: The health and societal impacts of EVD on Africa has been far-reaching, with about 35,000 cases and over 15,000 deaths, with small numbers of cases spreading globally. However, the history of combatting EVD reveals that there is considerable hope for African nations to quickly and successfully respond to Ebola outbreaks, through use of endemic resources including Africa CDC and African Partner Outbreak Response Alliance and the U.S. Africa Command with greater DoD reachback. Although there remains much to be learned about the Ebola virus and EVD including whether the potential for novel strains to become deadly emerging infections, invaluable vaccines, antivirals, and public health measures are now part of the resources that can be used to combat this disease., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Military Surgeons of the United States 2024. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.)

Competing Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.

Competing Interests: We declare no competing interests.

Background: There is a lack of empirical data on design effects (DEFF) for mortality rate for highly clustered data such as with Ebola virus disease (EVD), along with a lack of documentation of methodological limitations and operational utility of mortality estimated from cluster-sampled studies when the DEFF is high., Objectives: The objectives of this paper are to report EVD mortality rate and DEFF estimates, and discuss the methodological limitations of cluster surveys when data are highly clustered such as during an EVD outbreak., Methods: We analysed the outputs of two independent population-based surveys conducted at the end of the 2014-2016 EVD outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone, in urban and rural areas. In each area, 35 clusters of 14 households were selected with probability proportional to population size. We collected information on morbidity, mortality and changes in household composition during the recall period (May 2014 to April 2015). Rates were calculated for all-cause, all-age, under-5 and EVD-specific mortality, respectively, by areas and overall. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were estimated using Poisson regression, accounting for the surveys sample weights and the clustered design., Results: Overall 980 households and 6,522 individuals participated in both surveys. A total of 64 deaths were reported, of which 20 were attributed to EVD. The crude and EVD-specific mortality rates were 0.35/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.23-0.52) and 0.12/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.05-0.32), respectively. The DEFF for EVD mortality was 5.53, and for non-EVD mortality, it was 1.53. DEFF for EVD-specific mortality was 6.18 in the rural area and 0.58 in the urban area. DEFF for non-EVD-specific mortality was 1.87 in the rural area and 0.44 in the urban area., Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate a high degree of clustering; this contributed to imprecise mortality estimates, which have limited utility when assessing the impact of disease. We provide DEFF estimates that can inform future cluster surveys and discuss design improvements to mitigate the limitations of surveys for highly clustered data.

Background: To date, only three studies investigated the mental health of youth affected by Ebola virus disease (EVD). None explored anxiety and psychological distress symptoms in survivors or orphans. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and determinants of anxiety and psychological distress symptoms among survivors and orphans of the 2018-2020 Ebola epidemic in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) during the COVID-19 pandemic., Methods: A representative sample of 416 participants (mean age = 13.37, SD = 2.79, 51.20 % girls, 146 survivors, 233 orphans, and 34 orphan-survivor participants) completed measures evaluating anxiety, psychological distress, exposure, resilience, stigmatization related to Ebola and COVID-19., Results: 55.88 % and 55.96 % of survivors and orphans experienced severe symptoms of anxiety and psychological distress. Participants who were both survivors and orphans presented higher prevalence of anxiety and psychological distress (94.12 % and 100 %) compared to survivors (74.03 % and 81.82 %) or orphans (37.99 % and 33.33 %), χ 2  = 70.63, p < .001; χ 2  = 113.50, p < .001. Ebola and COVID-19 related stigmatization were the most important determinants of anxiety (B = 0.40, p < .001; B = 0.37, p < .001) and psychological distress (B = 0.48, p < .001; B = 0.44, p < .001). Resilience was negatively associated with both anxiety and psychological distress. The final regression models explained 49 % and 85 % of the variance of anxiety and psychological distress., Limitations: The cross-sectional design used prevents to establish causal link., Conclusions: Ebola children and adolescents' survivors and orphans are at major risk of experiencing anxiety and psychological distress in Eastern RDC affected by years of armed conflict. Massive resources are needed to develop and implement programs to reduce stigma and support mental health., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest No conflict of interest for any author., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Ebola virus disease kills more than half of people infected. Since the disease is transmitted via close human contact, identifying individuals at the highest risk of developing the disease is possible on the basis of the type of contact (correlated with viral exposure). Different candidates for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP; ie, vaccines, antivirals, and monoclonal antibodies) each have their specific benefits and limitations, which we discuss in this Viewpoint. Approved monoclonal antibodies have been found to reduce mortality in people with Ebola virus disease. As monoclonal antibodies act swiftly by directly targeting the virus, they are promising candidates for targeted PEP in contacts at high risk of developing disease. This intervention could save lives, halt viral transmission, and, ultimately, help curtail outbreak propagation. We explore how a strategic integration of monoclonal antibodies and vaccines as PEP could provide both immediate and long-term protection against Ebola virus disease, highlighting ongoing clinical research that aims to refine this approach, and discuss the transformative potential of a successful PEP strategy to help control viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Uganda has had seven Ebola disease outbreaks, between 2000 and 2022. On Sept 20, 2022, the Ministry of Health declared a Sudan virus disease outbreak in Mubende District, Central Uganda. We describe the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics., Methods: For this descriptive study, cases were classified as suspected, probable, or confirmed using Ministry of Health case definitions. We investigated all reported cases to obtain data on case-patient demographics, exposures, and signs and symptoms, and identified transmission chains. We conducted a descriptive epidemiological study and also calculated basic reproduction number (R o ) estimates., Findings: Between Aug 8 and Nov 27, 2022, 164 cases (142 confirmed, 22 probable) were identified from nine (6%) of 146 districts. The median age was 29 years (IQR 20-38), 95 (58%) of 164 patients were male, and 77 (47%) patients died. Symptom onsets ranged from Aug 8 to Nov 27, 2022. The case fatality rate was highest in children younger than 10 years (17 [74%] of 23 patients). Fever (135 [84%] of 160 patients), vomiting (93 [58%] patients), weakness (89 [56%] patients), and diarrhoea (81 [51%] patients) were the most common symptoms; bleeding was uncommon (21 [13%] patients). Before outbreak identification, most case-patients (26 [60%] of 43 patients) sought care at private health facilities. The median incubation was 6 days (IQR 5-8), and median time from onset to death was 10 days (7-23). Most early cases represented health-care-associated transmission (43 [26%] of 164 patients); most later cases represented household transmission (109 [66%]). Overall R o was 1·25., Interpretation: Despite delayed detection, the 2022 Sudan virus disease outbreak was rapidly controlled, possibly thanks to a low R o . Children (aged <10 years) were at the highest risk of death, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to improve their outcomes during Ebola disease outbreaks. Initial care-seeking occurred at facilities outside the government system, showing a need to ensure that private and public facilities receive training to identify possible Ebola disease cases during an outbreak. Health-care-associated transmission in private health facilities drove the early outbreak, suggesting gaps in infection prevention and control., Funding: None., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY NC ND 3.0 IGO license which permits users to download and share the article for non-commercial purposes, so long as the article is reproduced in the whole without changes, and provided the original source is properly cited. This article shall not be used or reproduced in association with the promotion of commercial products, services or any entity. There should be no suggestion that WHO endorses any specific organisation, products or services. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the article's original URL.)

Background: The 2022 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak occurred at a time when Uganda was still battling the social and psychological challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic; placing health care professionals (HCPs) at a much higher risk of developing psychological distress. Psychological distress among HCPs can cause decreased workplace productivity and ineffective management of their patients. The current study aimed to investigate and understand psychological distress among HCPS in Mbarara city in Southwestern Uganda following the 2022 EVD outbreak., Method: We enrolled 200 HCPs through convenient sampling from one private and one public health facility in Mbarara city in Southwestern Uganda, in a cross-sectional convergent parallel mixed method approach where qualitative and quantitative data were collected concurrently. Quantitative data, utilizing the Kessler Psychological Distress (K10) Scale, provided us with a quantitative measure of the prevalence of psychological distress among HCPs, and were analyzed using STATA version 16. Qualitative data, on the other hand, offered deeper insights into the nature, perceptions, and contextual factors influencing this distress, and were analyzed using emergent theme analysis., Results: The prevalence of psychological distress was 59.5% and it was higher among females (63.9%) compared to males (36.1%). HCPs vividly expressed distress and anxiety, with heightened suspicion that every patient might be an EVD carrier, creating a pervasive sense of unsafety in the workplace. However, the outbreak had an educational affect where concerns about the announcement of another EVD outbreak were diverse, with HCPs expressing anxiety, despair, and dissatisfaction with the country's management of potential outbreaks., Conclusion: High levels of psychological distress were experienced by HCPs in Southwestern Uganda as a result of the 2022 EVD pandemic. HCPs express a wide range of feelings, such as dread, anxiety, despair, pessimism, and discontent with the way the outbreaks are handled throughout the nation. We recommend implementation of comprehensive psychosocial support programs tailored to the unique needs of HCPs, including counseling services, stress management workshops, and peer support networks., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Competing Interests: MM is the WHO Regional Director for Africa and the other authors are all employees of the WHO Regional Office for Africa. We declare no other competing interests.

Purpose: Survivors of Ebola virus disease (EVD) are at risk for ocular complications after infection. We sought to identify demographic factors associated with the likelihood to present for eye examination among Ebola survivors enrolled in a longitudinal natural history study of EVD., Methods: The Partnership for Research on Vaccines and Infectious Diseases in Liberia (PREVAIL) III Ebola natural history study is a 5-year study that seeks to identify long-term sequelae of EVD, including ocular sequelae. All survivors enrolled in the PREVAIL parent study from June 2015 to March 2016 were asked to return for comprehensive eye examination through June 2016. Logistic regression was conducted using self-reported survivor status, age, gender, and distance from the hospital as covariates., Results: A total of 1448 subjects enrolled in the parent PREVAIL III longitudinal cohort during the defined window, of which 1375 (95.0%) followed up for baseline eye examination. Ebola survivors (635/661, 96.1%) and adult close contacts (727/767, 94.8%) demonstrated a comparable likelihood for presenting for eye examination (odds ratio [OR] 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.36-1.28). In an adjusted model, age over 50 (OR 10.2, 95% CI 1.35-77.3) and living outside Montserrado County (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.10-0.33) were associated with the likelihood of presenting for a baseline comprehensive eye examination., Conclusion: Most EVD survivors and their close contacts who enrolled during the study window presented for eye examinations. Older participants and those who lived closer to clinical facilities were most likely to present. Focused strategies accounting for these factors may assist with organizations planning survivor care in the setting of EVD., Competing Interests: There are no conflicts of interest., (Copyright: © 2024 Middle East African Journal of Ophthalmology.)

Background: Dynamical mathematical models defined by a system of differential equations are typically not easily accessible to non-experts. However, forecasts based on these types of models can help gain insights into the mechanisms driving the process and may outcompete simpler phenomenological growth models. Here we introduce a friendly toolbox, SpatialWavePredict, to characterize and forecast the spatial wave sub-epidemic model, which captures diverse wave dynamics by aggregating multiple asynchronous growth processes and has outperformed simpler phenomenological growth models in short-term forecasts of various infectious diseases outbreaks including SARS, Ebola, and the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US., Results: This tutorial-based primer introduces and illustrates a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time-series trajectories using an ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic model based on ordinary differential equations. Scientists, policymakers, and students can use the toolbox to conduct real-time short-term forecasts. The five-parameter epidemic wave model in the toolbox aggregates linked overlapping sub-epidemics and captures a rich spectrum of epidemic wave dynamics, including oscillatory wave behavior and plateaus. An ensemble strategy aims to improve forecasting performance by combining the resulting top-ranked models. The toolbox provides a tutorial for forecasting time-series trajectories, including the full uncertainty distribution derived through parametric bootstrapping, which is needed to construct prediction intervals and evaluate their accuracy. Functions are available to assess forecasting performance, estimation methods, error structures in the data, and forecasting horizons. The toolbox also includes functions to quantify forecasting performance using metrics that evaluate point and distributional forecasts, including the weighted interval score., Conclusions: We have developed the first comprehensive toolbox to characterize and forecast time-series data using an ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic wave model. As an epidemic situation or contagion occurs, the tools presented in this tutorial can facilitate policymakers to guide the implementation of containment strategies and assess the impact of control interventions. We demonstrate the functionality of the toolbox with examples, including a tutorial video, and is illustrated using daily data on the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have intermittently occurred since the first documented case in the 1970s. Due to its transmission characteristics, large outbreaks have not been observed outside Africa. However, within the continent, significant outbreaks have been attributed to factors such as endemic diseases with similar symptoms and inadequate medical infrastructure, which complicate timely diagnosis. In this study, we employed a stochastic modeling approach to analyze the spread of EVD during the early stages of an outbreak, with an emphasis on inherent risks. We developed a model that considers healthcare workers and unreported cases, and assessed the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) using actual data. Our results indicate that the implementation of NPIs led to a decrease in the transmission rate and infectious period by 30% and 40% respectively, following the declaration of the outbreak. We also investigated the risks associated with delayed outbreak recognition. Our simulations suggest that, when accounting for NPIs and recognition delays, prompt detection could have resulted in a similar outbreak scale, with approximately 50% of the baseline NPIs effect. Finally, we discussed the potential effects of a vaccination strategy as a follow-up measure after the outbreak declaration. Our findings suggest that a vaccination strategy can reduce both the burden of NPIs and the scale of the outbreak., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Ko et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Many Ebola virus disease (EVD) survivors have reported somatic and neuropsychological symptoms after discharge from the Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU). Since the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, various studies have investigated and identified these symptoms. Evidence on somatic symptoms is widely available in the literature, however, there is no concise overview of the prevalence across different time intervals., Methods: This meta-analysis was conducted following the (PRISMA) guidelines. A database search was conducted to identify original studies that reported the prevalence of symptoms. The primary outcome measure was the prevalence rate of several somatic symptoms. Results were pooled, and prevalence rates were assessed over time, to elucidate any particular trends., Results: We included 23 studies (5,714 participants). The pooled prevalence was: arthralgia 50% (95% CI: 41%-59%); headache 44% (95% CI: 36%-52%); myalgia 32% (95% CI: 26%-38%); abdominal pain 27% (95% CI: 15%-39%); fatigue 25% (95% CI: 19%-31%); numbness of feet 16% (95% CI: 14%-18%); numbness of hands 12% (95% CI: 10%-14%) and hearing loss 9% (95% CI: 5%-12%). Prevalence across different time intervals revealed significant patterns. All the symptoms persisted for more than 2 years after discharge except for abdominal pain., Conclusion: The pooled prevalence rates of somatic symptoms are notably high. Arthralgia and headache are the most prevalent of the symptoms, with hearing loss and numbness in hands and feet being the least. We found that arthralgia, myalgia, and abdominal pain decreased over time. However, headache, fatigue, numbness of hands and feet, and hearing loss increased over time., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Research, policy, and donor interest in health systems in conflict environments has grown rapidly in recent years. The 2018-20 Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of the Congo is a critical case of healthcare militarization. The first-ever such outbreak in an active conflict zone, it grew notorious for violence against response teams, with attacks aggravating the spread of disease. However, while medical responders observed physical attacks, the causes of the violence remained largely unknown. Drawing on interviews and participant observation, we contribute civilian vantages of the way health intervention grew militarized, or associated with conflict. The argument builds in two core steps. A first reconstructs civilian experiences of conflict prior to Ebola to trace how the response took on a political meaning. We find that relationships linking state forces with the health response inadvertently tethered Ebola to what civilians perceived as security threats and that by repeating government statements about conflict, response teams unintentionally endorsed a version of the truth that silenced local voices. A second step addresses a central paradox: residents communicated these concerns directly, repeatedly, and via official response channels, yet healthcare teams failed to apply these insights. We locate this gap in the knowledge structures, or frames, accompanying intervention. Medical emergencies in warzones operate with dual sets of frames casting conflict players as "non-state" and public health resistance as "ignorance." Both frames intersect in ways that amplify invisibilities in each, clouding understandings of the nature of conflict and humanitarians' role in it. We suggest this places intervention teams at heightened risk of mis-stepping on political fault lines-and not understanding why. The study advances work on community engagement by showing that instead of simply providing scientific knowledge, effective engagement requires adjusting socio-political lenses within the response. It contributes to studies on health intervention, humanitarian emergencies, and the limits of medical neutrality., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: The rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP vaccine constitutes a valuable tool to control Ebola virus disease outbreaks. This retrospective cohort study aimed to assess the protective effect of the vaccine against death among patients with confirmed Ebola virus disease., Methods: In this retrospective cohort analysis of patients with confirmed Ebola virus disease admitted to Ebola health facilities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between July 27, 2018, and April 27, 2020, we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to assess case fatality risk and cycle threshold for nucleoprotein according to vaccination status, Ebola virus disease-specific treatments (eg, mAb114 and REGN-EB3), and other risk factors., Findings: We analysed all 2279 patients with confirmed Ebola virus disease. Of these 2279 patients, 1300 (57%) were female and 979 (43%) were male. Vaccination significantly lowered case fatality risk (vaccinated: 25% [106/423] vs not vaccinated: 56% [570/1015]; p<0·0001). In adjusted analyses, vaccination significantly lowered the risk of death compared with no vaccination, with protection increasing as time elapsed from vaccination to symptom onset (vaccinated ≤2 days before onset: 27% [27/99], adjusted relative risk 0·56 [95% CI 0·36-0·82, p=0·0046]; 3-9 days before onset: 20% [28/139], 0·44 [0·29-0·65, p=0·0001]; ≥10 days before onset: 18% [12/68], 0·40 [0·21-0·69; p=0·0022]; vaccination date unknown: 33% [39/117], 0·69 [0·48-0·96; p=0·0341]; and vaccination status unknown: 52% [441/841], 0·80 [0·70-0·91, p=0·0011]). Longer time from symptom onset to admission significantly increased risk of death (49% [1117/2279], 1·03 [1·02-1·05; p<0·0001]). Cycle threshold values for nucleoprotein were significantly higher-indicating lower viraemia-among patients who were vaccinated compared with those who were not vaccinated; the highest difference was observed among those vaccinated 21 days or longer before symptom onset (median 30·0 cycles [IQR 24·6-33·7]) compared with patients who were not vaccinated (21·4 cycles [18·4-25·9], p<0·0001)., Interpretation: To our knowledge, this is the first observational study describing the protective effect of rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP vaccination against death among patients with confirmed Ebola virus disease admitted to an Ebola health facility. Vaccination was protective against death for all patients, even when adjusted for Ebola virus disease-specific treatment, age group, and time from symptom onset to admission., Funding: Médecins Sans Frontières., Translation: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a re-examination of public health preparedness with an emphasis on lessons learned following the West African Ebola epidemic. However, much of this work focuses on technological solutions rather than social learning. Drawing upon anthropological work, this paper examines how Sierra Leoneans prepared for COVID-19 through a lens of "embodied epidemic memory." Findings reveal that while people felt more empowered to respond to COVID-19 due to their past experiences, traumatic memories from the Ebola outbreak also sparked logics of fear and avoidance, driven by mistrust toward the state and its healthcare system. As a result, people avoided healthcare facilities, and rumors concerning government corruption threatened mitigation efforts. While local populations should be better leveraged for their existing epidemic expertise, greater attention is needed to the "higher hanging fruit" of preparedness: restoring trust in the government's ability to respond to epidemics., (© 2024 The Authors. Medical Anthropology Quarterly published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Anthropological Association.)

Introduction: Health systems including mental health (MH) systems are resilient if they protect human life and produce better health outcomes for all during disease outbreaks or epidemics like Ebola disease and their aftermaths. We explored the resilience of MH services amidst Ebola disease outbreaks in Africa; specifically, to (i) describe the pre-, during-, and post-Ebola disease outbreak MH systems in African countries that have experienced Ebola disease outbreaks, (ii) determine the prevalence of three high burden MH disorders and how those prevalences interact with Ebola disease outbreaks, and, (iii) describe the resilience of MH systems in the context of these outbreaks., Methods: This was a scoping review employing an adapted PRISMA statement. We conducted a five-step Boolean strategy with both free text and Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) to search 9 electronic databases and also searched WHO MINDbank and MH Atlas., Results: The literature search yielded 1,230 publications. Twenty-five studies were included involving 13,449 participants. By 2023, 13 African nations had encountered a total of 35 Ebola outbreak events. None of these countries had a metric recorded in MH Atlas to assess the inclusion of MH in emergency plans. The three highest-burden outbreak-associated MH disorders under the MH and Psychosocial Support (MHPSS) framework were depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and anxiety with prevalence ranges of 1.4-7%, 2-90%, and 1.3-88%, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed a concerning lack of resilience within the MH systems, as evidenced by the absence of pre-existing metrics to gauge MH preparedness in emergency plans. Additionally, none of the studies evaluated the resilience of MH services for individuals with pre-existing needs or examined potential post-outbreak degradation in core MH services., Discussion: Our findings revealed an insufficiency of resilience, with no evaluation of services for individuals with pre-existing needs or post-outbreak degradation in core MH services. Strengthening MH resilience guided by evidence-based frameworks must be a priority to mitigate the long-term impacts of epidemics on mental well-being., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Wirsiy, Tahmo, Tatah and Brett-Major.)

Background: In 2022, an Ebola disease outbreak caused by Sudan virus (SUDV) occurred in Uganda, primarily affecting Mubende and Kassanda districts. We determined risk factors for SUDV infection among household members (HHM) of cases., Methods: We conducted a case-control and retrospective cohort study in January 2023. Cases were RT-PCR-confirmed SUDV infection in residents of Mubende or Kassanda districts during the outbreak. Case-households housed a symptomatic, primary case-patient for ≥ 24 h and had ≥ 1 secondary case-patient with onset < 2 weeks after their last exposure to the primary case-patient. Control households housed a case-patient and other HHM but no secondary cases. A risk factor questionnaire was administered to the primary case-patient or another adult who lived at home while the primary case-patient was ill. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among case-household members and categorized their interactions with primary case-patients during their illnesses as none, minimal, indirect, and direct contact. We conducted logistic regression to explore associations between exposures and case-household status, and Poisson regression to identify risk factors for SUDV infection among HHM., Results: Case- and control-households had similar median sizes. Among 19 case-households and 51 control households, primary case-patient death (adjusted odds ratio [OR adj ] = 7.6, 95% CI 1.4-41) and ≥ 2 household bedrooms (OR adj =0.19, 95% CI 0.056-0.71) were associated with case-household status. In the cohort of 76 case-HHM, 44 (58%) were tested for SUDV < 2 weeks from their last contact with the primary case-patient; 29 (38%) were positive. Being aged ≥ 18 years (adjusted risk ratio [aRR adj ] = 1.9, 95%CI: 1.01-3.7) and having direct or indirect contact with the primary case-patient (aRR adj =3.2, 95%CI: 1.1-9.7) compared to minimal or no contact increased risk of Sudan virus disease (SVD). Access to a handwashing facility decreased risk (aRR adj =0.52, 95%CI: 0.31-0.88)., Conclusion: Direct contact, particularly providing nursing care for and sharing sleeping space with SVD patients, increased infection risk among HHM. Risk assessments during contact tracing may provide evidence to justify closer monitoring of some HHM. Health messaging should highlight the risk of sharing sleeping spaces and providing nursing care for persons with Ebola disease symptoms and emphasize hand hygiene to aid early case identification and reduce transmission., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The E/S (exposed/susceptible) ratio is analyzed in the SEIR model. The ratio plays a key role in understanding epidemic dynamics during the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone and Guinea. The maximum value of the ratio occurs immediately before or after the time-dependent reproduction number (R t ) equals 1, depending on the initial susceptible population (S(0)). It is demonstrated that transmission rate curves corresponding to various incubation periods intersect at a single point referred to as the Cross Point (CP). At this point, the E/S ratio reaches an extremum, signifying a critical shift in transmission dynamics and aligning with the time when R t approaches 1. By plotting transmission rate curves, β(t), for any two arbitrary incubation periods and tracking their intersections, we can trace CP over time. CP serves as an indicator of epidemic status, especially when R t is close to 1. It provides a practical means of monitoring epidemics without prior knowledge of the incubation period. Through a case study, we estimate the transmission rate and reproduction number, identifying CP and R t  = 1 while examining the E/S ratio across various values of S(0)., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: On 20 September 2022, Uganda declared its fifth Sudan virus disease (SVD) outbreak, culminating in 142 confirmed and 22 probable cases. The reproductive rate (R) of this outbreak was 1.25. We described persons who were exposed to the virus, became infected, and they led to the infection of an unusually high number of cases during the outbreak., Methods: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, we defined a super-spreader person (SSP) as any person with real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed SVD linked to the infection of ≥ 13 other persons (10-fold the outbreak R). We reviewed illness narratives for SSPs collected through interviews. Whole-genome sequencing was used to support epidemiologic linkages between cases., Results: Two SSPs (Patient A, a 33-year-old male, and Patient B, a 26-year-old male) were identified, and linked to the infection of one probable and 50 confirmed secondary cases. Both SSPs lived in the same parish and were likely infected by a single ill healthcare worker in early October while receiving healthcare. Both sought treatment at multiple health facilities, but neither was ever isolated at an Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU). In total, 18 secondary cases (17 confirmed, one probable), including three deaths (17%), were linked to Patient A; 33 secondary cases (all confirmed), including 14 (42%) deaths, were linked to Patient B. Secondary cases linked to Patient A included family members, neighbours, and contacts at health facilities, including healthcare workers. Those linked to Patient B included healthcare workers, friends, and family members who interacted with him throughout his illness, prayed over him while he was nearing death, or exhumed his body. Intensive community engagement and awareness-building were initiated based on narratives collected about patients A and B; 49 (96%) of the secondary cases were isolated in an ETU, a median of three days after onset. Only nine tertiary cases were linked to the 51 secondary cases. Sequencing suggested plausible direct transmission from the SSPs to 37 of 39 secondary cases with sequence data., Conclusion: Extended time in the community while ill, social interactions, cross-district travel for treatment, and religious practices contributed to SVD super-spreading. Intensive community engagement and awareness may have reduced the number of tertiary infections. Intensive follow-up of contacts of case-patients may help reduce the impact of super-spreading events., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: The West African Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic resulted in >28 000 disease cases and >11 000 fatalities. The unprecedented number of survivors from this epidemic has raised questions about the long-term mental health impacts of EVD survivorship and the capacity to meet these needs., Objectives: Assess the frequency and factors associated with mental health consequences of EVD survivorship in Sierra Leone., Methods: A cross-sectional study of 595 EVD survivors and 403 close contacts (n=998) from Sierra Leone assessed via in-person survey between November 2021 and March 2022. The assessment included validated mental health screening tools (Patient Health Questionnaire-9, PTSD Checklist-5, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, Drug Abuse Screening Test-20) to indicate the presence/absence of disorder. The frequency of each disorder and factors associated with each disorder were assessed., Findings: EVD-associated post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was reported by 45.7% (n=257) of EVD survivors. Moreover, 3.9% (n=22) and 12.0% (n=67) of EVD survivors reported major depression (MD) and substance use, respectively; all mental health outcomes were higher than baseline rates in the region (PTSD: 6%-16%, MD: 1.1%, substance use: 2.2%). PTSD among EVD survivors was associated with acute EVD duration of ≥21 days (adjusted OR, AOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.16 to 4.43), 35-44 years of age (AOR 3.31, 95% CI 1.33 to 8.24; AOR 2.99, 95% CI 1.09 to 8.24) and residential mobility (AOR 4.16, 95% CI 2.35 to 7.35)., Conclusions: Concerningly, the levels of mental health disorders among EVD survivors in Sierra Leone remained elevated 6-8 years after recovery., Clinical Implications: Results can be used to inform policy efforts and target resources to address mental health in EVD survivors., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic forced governments, multilateral public health organisations and research institutions to undertake research quickly to inform their responses to the pandemic. Most COVID-19-related studies required swift approval, creating ethical and practical challenges for regulatory authorities and researchers. In this paper, we examine the landscape of ethics review processes in Africa during public health emergencies (PHEs)., Methods: We searched four electronic databases (Web of Science, PUBMED, MEDLINE Complete, and CINAHL) to identify articles describing ethics review processes during public health emergencies and/or pandemics. We selected and reviewed those articles that were focused on Africa. We charted the data from the retrieved articles including the authors and year of publication, title, country and disease(s) reference, broad areas of (ethical) consideration, paper type, and approach., Results: Of an initial 4536 records retrieved, we screened the titles and abstracts of 1491 articles, and identified 72 articles for full review. Nine articles were selected for inclusion. Of these nine articles, five referenced West African countries including Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, and experiences linked to the Ebola virus disease. Two articles focused on South Africa and Kenya, while the other two articles discussed more general experiences and pitfalls of ethics review during PHEs in Africa more broadly. We found no articles published on ethics review processes in Africa before the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and only a few before the COVID-19 outbreak. Although guidelines on protocol review and approval processes for PHEs were more frequently discussed after the 2014 Ebola outbreak, these did not focus on Africa specifically., Conclusions: There is a gap in the literature about ethics review processes and preparedness within Africa during PHEs. This paper underscores the importance of these processes to inform practices that facilitate timely, context-relevant research that adequately recognises and reinforces human dignity within the quest to advance scientific knowledge about diseases. This is important to improve fast responses to PHEs, reduce mortality and morbidity, and enhance the quality of care before, during, and after pandemics., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Human Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreaks caused by persistent EBOV infection raises questions on the role of zoonotic spillover in filovirus epidemiology. To characterise filovirus zoonotic exposure, we collected cross-sectional serum samples from bushmeat hunters (n = 498) in Macenta Prefecture Guinea, adjacent to the index site of the 2013 EBOV-Makona spillover event. We identified distinct immune signatures (20/498, 4.0%) to multiple EBOV antigens (GP, NP, VP40) using stepwise ELISA and Western blot analysis and, live EBOV neutralisation (5/20; 25%). Using comparative serological data from PCR-confirmed survivors of the 2013-2016 EBOV outbreak, we demonstrated that most signatures (15/20) were not plausibly explained by prior EBOV-Makona exposure. Subsequent data-driven modelling of EBOV immunological outcomes to remote-sensing environmental data also revealed consistent associations with intact closed canopy forest. Together our findings suggest exposure to other closely related filoviruses prior to the 2013-2016 West Africa epidemic and highlight future surveillance priorities., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Introduction: Unrecognized Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) can lead to multiple chains of transmissions if the first caretakers are not trained and prepared. This study aimed to assess healthcare workers (HCWs) preparedness in private hospitals located in Kampala, to detect, respond and prevent EVD., Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out among HCWs in direct clinical care provision in four private hospitals, and in one Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU) using a self-administered questionnaire from March to June 2020., Results: 222 HCWs agreed to participate aged from 19 to 64 years and with 6 months to 38 years of practice where most were nurses (44%). 3/5 hospitals did not have written protocols on EVD case management, and only one (ETU) had an exclusive emergency team. 59% were not sure whether contact tracing was taking place. Private hospitals were not included in EVD trainings organized by the Ministry of Health (MoH). In addition, HCWs in private hospitals were not empowered by the MoH to take part in EVD case management. Despite these shortcomings, only 66% of HCWs showed an interest to be immunized. Knowledge about potential Ebola vaccines was generally poor., Conclusions: In Kampala, Uganda, establishment of a more comprehensive preparedness and response strategy for EVD outbreaks is imperative for HCWs in private facilities, including a wide vaccination educational program on Ebola vaccination. The findings from this study if addressed will likely improve the preparedness and management of future Ebola outbreaks in Uganda., Competing Interests: No Conflict of Interest is declared, (Copyright (c) 2024 Collins Ankunda, Stuart Martin Kanyesigye, Susan Nakubulwa, Brendah Kyomuhangi, Jakob Cramer, Enrique Chacon-Cruz, Sue Ann Costa Clemens, Ralf Clemens.)

Ebola virus disease (Ebola) is a rare but severe illness in humans, with an average case fatality rate of approximately 50%. Two licensed vaccines are currently available against Orthoebolavirus zairense, the virus that causes Ebola: the 1-dose rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP (ERVEBO [Merck]) and the 2-dose regimen of Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo (Zabdeno/Mvabea [Johnson & Johnson]). The Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization recommends the use of 1-dose ERVEBO during Ebola outbreaks, and in 2021, a global stockpile of ERVEBO was established to ensure equitable, timely, and targeted access to vaccine doses for future Ebola outbreaks. This report describes the use of Ebola vaccines and the role of the stockpile developed and managed by the International Coordinating Group (ICG) on Vaccine Provision during 2021-2023. A total of 145,690 doses have been shipped from the ICG stockpile since 2021. However, because outbreaks since 2021 have been limited and rapidly contained, most doses (139,120; 95%) shipped from the ICG stockpile have been repurposed for preventive vaccination of high-risk groups, compared with 6,570 (5%) used for outbreak response. Repurposing doses for preventive vaccination could be prioritized in the absence of Ebola outbreaks to prevent transmission and maximize the cost-efficiency and benefits of the stockpile., Competing Interests: All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.

Background: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) experienced its largest Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in 2018-2020. As a result of the outbreak, significant funding and international support were provided to Eastern DRC to improve disease surveillance. The Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy has been used in the DRC as a framework to strengthen public health surveillance, and full implementation could be critical as the DRC continues to face threats of various epidemic-prone diseases. In 2021, the DRC initiated an IDSR assessment in North Kivu province to assess the capabilities of the public health system to detect and respond to new public health threats., Methods: The study utilized a mixed-methods design consisting of quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative assessment of the performance in IDSR core functions was conducted at multiple levels of the tiered health system through a standardized questionnaire and analysis of health data. Qualitative data were also collected through observations, focus groups and open-ended questions. Data were collected at the North Kivu provincial public health office, five health zones, 66 healthcare facilities, and from community health workers in 15 health areas., Results: Thirty-six percent of health facilities had no case definition documents and 53% had no blank case reporting forms, limiting identification and reporting. Data completeness and timeliness among health facilities were 53% and 75% overall but varied widely by health zone. While these indicators seemingly improved at the health zone level at 100% and 97% respectively, the health facility data feeding into the reporting structure were inconsistent. The use of electronic Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response is not widely implemented. Rapid response teams were generally available, but functionality was low with lack of guidance documents and long response times., Conclusion: Support is needed at the lower levels of the public health system and to address specific zones with low performance. Limitations in materials, resources for communication and transportation, and workforce training continue to be challenges. This assessment highlights the need to move from outbreak-focused support and funding to building systems that can improve the long-term functionality of the routine disease surveillance system., (© 2024. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.)