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INTRODUCTION: Longitudinal studies can provide timely and accurate information to evaluate and inform COVID-19 control and mitigation strategies and future pandemic preparedness. The Optimise Study is a multidisciplinary research platform established in the Australian state of Victoria in September 2020 to collect epidemiological, social, psychological and behavioural data from priority populations. It aims to understand changing public attitudes, behaviours and experiences of COVID-19 and inform epidemic modelling and support responsive government policy. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol paper describes the data collection procedures for the Optimise Study, an ongoing longitudinal cohort of ~1000 Victorian adults and their social networks. Participants are recruited using snowball sampling with a set of seeds and two waves of snowball recruitment. Seeds are purposively selected from priority groups, including recent COVID-19 cases and close contacts and people at heightened risk of infection and/or adverse outcomes of COVID-19 infection and/or public health measures. Participants complete a schedule of monthly quantitative surveys and daily diaries for up to 24 months, plus additional surveys annually for up to 48 months. Cohort participants are recruited for qualitative interviews at key time points to enable in-depth exploration of people's lived experiences. Separately, community representatives are invited to participate in community engagement groups, which review and interpret research findings to inform policy and practice recommendations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Optimise longitudinal cohort and qualitative interviews are approved by the Alfred Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee (# 333/20). The Optimise Study CEG is approved by the La Trobe University Human Ethics Committee (# HEC20532). All participants provide informed verbal consent to enter the cohort, with additional consent provided prior to any of the sub studies. Study findings will be

BACKGROUND: To achieve hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination targets, simplified care engaging people who inject drugs is required. We evaluated whether fingerstick HCV RNA point-of-care testing (PoCT) increased the proportion of clients attending a supervised injecting facility who were tested for hepatitis C. METHODS: Prospective single-arm study with recruitment between 9 November 2020 and 28 January 2021 and follow-up to 31 July 2021. Clients attending the supervised injecting facility were offered HCV RNA testing using the Xpert® HCV Viral Load Fingerstick (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA) PoCT. Participants with a positive HCV RNA test were prescribed direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. The primary endpoint was the proportion of clients who engaged in HCV RNA PoCT, compared to a historical comparator group when venepuncture-based hepatitis C testing was standard of care. RESULTS: Among 1618 clients who attended the supervised injecting facility during the study period, 228 (14%) engaged in PoCT. This was significantly higher than that observed in the historical comparator group (61/1,775, 3%; p < 0.001). Sixty-five (28%) participants were HCV RNA positive, with 40/65 (62%) receiving their result on the same day as testing. Sixty-one (94%) HCV RNA positive participants were commenced on DAA therapy; 14/61 (23%) started treatment on the same day as diagnosis. There was no difference in the proportion of HCV RNA positive participants commenced on treatment with DAA therapy when compared to the historical comparator group (61/65, 94% vs 22/26, 85%; p = 0.153). However, the median time to treatment initiation was significantly shorter in the PoCT cohort (2 days (IQR 1-20) vs 41 days (IQR 22-76), p < 0.001). Among participants who commenced treatment and had complete follow-up data available, 27/36 (75%) achieved hepatitis C cure. CONCLUSIONS: HCV RNA PoCT led to a significantly higher proportion of clients attending a supervised injecting facility engaging in hepatitis C t

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003818.].

OBJECTIVE: We describe COVID-19 risk reduction strategies adopted by Victorian adults during December 2021-January 2022, a period of high COVID-19 infection and limited government mandated public health measures. METHODS: In February 2022, participants of a Victorian-based cohort study (Optimise) completed a cross-sectional survey on risk reduction behaviours during December 2021-January 2022. Regression modelling estimated the association between risk reduction and demographics. RESULTS: A total of 556 participants were included (median age 47 years; 75% women; 82% in metropolitan Melbourne). Two-thirds (61%) adopted at least one risk reduction behaviour, with uptake highest among younger participants (18-34 years; adjusted relative risk (aRR): 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.41) and those with a chronic health condition (aRR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Participants adopted their own COVID-19 risk reduction strategies in a setting of limited government restrictions, with young people more likely to adopt a risk reduction strategy that did not limit social mobility. IMPLICATION FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: A public health response to COVID-19 that focusses on promoting personal risk reduction behaviours, as opposed to mandated restrictions, could be enhanced by disseminating information on and increasing availability of effective risk reduction strategies tailored to segments of the population.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, the Australian Government Department of Health commissioned a consortium of modelling groups to generate evidence assisting the transition from a goal of no community COVID-19 transmission to 'living with COVID-19', with adverse health and social consequences limited by vaccination and other measures. Due to the extended school closures over 2020-21, maximizing face-to-face teaching was a major objective during this transition. The consortium was tasked with informing school surveillance and contact management strategies to minimize infections and support this goal. METHODS: Outcomes considered were infections and days of face-to-face teaching lost in the 45 days following an outbreak within an otherwise COVID-naïve school setting. A stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission was used to evaluate a 'test-to-stay' strategy using daily rapid antigen tests (RATs) for close contacts of a case for 7 days compared with home quarantine; and an asymptomatic surveillance strategy involving twice-weekly screening of all students and/or teachers using RATs. FINDINGS: Test-to-stay had similar effectiveness for reducing school infections as extended home quarantine, without the associated days of face-to-face teaching lost. Asymptomatic screening was beneficial in reducing both infections and days of face-to-face teaching lost and was most beneficial when community prevalence was high. INTERPRETATION: Use of RATs in school settings for surveillance and contact management can help to maximize face-to-face teaching and minimize outbreaks. This evidence supported the implementation of surveillance testing in schools in several Australian jurisdictions from January 2022.

UNLABELLED: The diverse geographic, demographic, and societal factors in the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) have contributed to unique epidemiological patterns of HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B. Transmission can be during pregnancy, at the time of birth or via breastfeeding for HIV, and can have long-term adverse outcomes. Given the similarities in prevention of mother-to-child transmission of these infections, coordinated interventions for triple elimination are used. This systematic review has evaluated the peer-reviewed literature, grey literature, and global databases to assess the availability of data to report against elimination targets in the WHO Regional Framework for the Triple Elimination of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV, Hepatitis B and Syphilis in Asia and the Pacific 2018-2030. The secondary objective is to report on progress towards these targets. The findings show that none of the PICTs are on track to achieve triple elimination by 2030. Amongst the limited publicly available indicator data, there is suboptimal coverage for most indicators. It is important that there is an increase in availability of and access to antenatal care, testing, and treatment for pregnant women. Increased efforts are needed to collect data on key indicators and integrate reporting into existing systems to avoid extra burden. FUNDING: Leila Bell was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship, Australia. Funding sources had no role in paper design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation, or writing of the paper.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered widespread socioeconomic hardship, disproportionately impacting disadvantaged populations. People who use illicit drugs are more likely to experience unemployment, homelessness, criminal justice involvement and poorer health outcomes than the general community, yet little is known about the socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic on their lives. To address this gap in the literature, we conducted in-depth interviews with 76 participants from two cohort studies of people who use illicit drugs (people who inject drugs and/or use methamphetamine) in Victoria, Australia. Findings support claims that pandemic-related Social Security supplementary payments and initiatives to reduce homelessness, although not systemically transforming people's lives, produced temporary relief from chronic socioeconomic hardship. Results also indicate how temporary interruptions to drug supply chains inflated illicit drug prices and produced adverse consequences such as financial and emotional stress, which was exacerbated by drug withdrawal symptoms for many participants. Furthermore, increased community demand for emergency food and housing support during the pandemic appeared to reduce participants' access to these services. Our findings about the unintended consequences of pandemic responses on the socioeconomic lives of a group of people who use illicit drugs provide insights into and opportunities for policy reform to redress their entrenched disadvantage.

INTRODUCTION: The advent of direct acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) means the elimination of HCV is possible but requires sustained effort to achieve. Between 2016 and 2019, 44% of those living with HCV were treated in Australia. However, treatment uptake has declined significantly. In Australia, people who inject drugs (PWID) are the population most at risk of HCV acquisition. Eliminating HCV in Australia will require nuanced understanding of the barriers to HCV treatment experienced by PWID and tailored interventions to address these barriers. The EC-Experience Cohort study aims to explore the barriers and enablers reported by PWID to engagement in HCV care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The EC-Experience Cohort study is a prospective cohort of PWID, established in Melbourne, Australia in 2018. Participants are assigned into three study groups: (1) those not currently engaged in HCV testing; (2) those diagnosed with HCV but not currently engaged in treatment and (3) those completed treatment. Participants complete a total of four interviews every 6 months across an 18-month study period. Predictors of experience of key outcome events along the HCV care cascade will be explored over time. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval for the EC-Experience Cohort study was obtained by the Alfred Hospital Ethics Committee in Melbourne, Australia (Project Number: HREC/16/Alfred/164). All eligible participants are assessed for capacity to consent and partake in a thorough informed consent process. Results from the EC-Experience Cohort study will be disseminated via national and international scientific and public health conferences and peer-reviewed journal publications. Data from the EC-Experience Cohort study will improve the current understanding of the barriers to HCV care for PWID and guide the tailoring of service provision for specific subgroups. Understanding the barriers and how to increase engagement in care of PWID is critical to achieve HCV elimina

The Pacific Island country of Vanuatu is considering strategies to remove border restrictions implemented during 2020 to prevent imported coronavirus disease. We performed mathematical modeling to estimate the number of infectious travelers who had different entry scenarios and testing strategies. Travel bubbles and testing on entry have the greatest importation risk reduction.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women are a priority group for hepatitis B testing. Guideline-based care during antenatal and post-partum periods aims to prevent mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus and lower the risk of liver complications in mothers. This qualitative study explored knowledge of hepatitis B and experiences of hepatitis B related care among pregnant women and mothers. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with thirteen women with hepatitis B who were attending antenatal or post-partum hepatitis B care. The interviews were thematically analysed to assess knowledge and understanding of hepatitis B. Participants were recruited from specialist clinics in metropolitan Melbourne between August 2019 and May 2020. RESULTS: Four major themes were identified from interviews: (1) knowledge and understanding of hepatitis B, (2) treatment pathways, (3) accessing hepatitis B related care, and (4) disclosing status to friends. Most participants displayed an understanding of hepatitis B transmission, including mother to child transmission. The main motivator of post-partum attendance was reassurance gained concerning their child's health. Sources of hepatitis B information included doctors, online information and family. Participants identified parents and siblings as sources of support and reported an unwillingness to disclose hepatitis B status to friends. CONCLUSIONS: Women attending antenatal or post-partum care reported having overall positive experiences, particularly regarding reassurance of their child's health, but displayed misconceptions around horizontal transmission. Knowledge gained from these results can contribute to the development of targeted models of care for pregnant women and mothers with young children to ensure their successful linkage to care.

INTRODUCTION: By subsidising access to direct acting antivirals (DAAs) for all people living with hepatitis C (HCV) in 2016, Australia is positioned to eliminate HCV as a public health threat. However, uptake of DAAs has declined over recent years and new initiatives are needed to engage people living with HCV in care. Active follow-up of HCV notifications by the health department to the notifying general practitioner (GP) may increase treatment uptake. In this study, we explore the impact of using hepatitis C notifications systems to engage diagnosing GPs and improve patient access to treatment. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is a randomised controlled trial comparing enhanced case management of HCV notifications with standard of care. The intervention includes phone calls from a department of health (DoH) specialist HCV nurse to notifying GPs and offering HCV management support. The level of support requested by the GP was graded in complexity: level 1: HCV information only; level 2: follow-up testing advice; level 3: prescription support including linkage to specialist clinicians and level 4: direct patient contact. The study population includes all GPs in Tasmania who notified HCV diagnosis to the DoH between September 2020 and December 2021. The primary outcome is proportion of HCV cases who initiate DAAs after 12 weeks of HCV notification to the health department. Secondary outcomes are proportion of HCV notifications that complete HCV RNA testing, treatment workup and treatment completion. Multiple logistic regression modelling will explore factors associated with the primary and secondary outcomes. The sample size required to detect a significant difference for the primary outcome is 85 GPs in each arm with a two-sided alpha of 0.05% and 80% power. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by University of Tasmania's Human Research Ethics Committee (Protocol ID: 18418) on 17 December 2019. Results of the project will be presented in scientific meeti

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C elimination may be possible with broad uptake of direct-acting antiviral treatments (DAAs). In 2016 the Australian government committed A$1.2 billion for five years of unlimited DAAs (March 2016 to February 2021) in a risk-sharing agreement with pharmaceutical companies. We assess the impact, cost-effectiveness and net economic benefits likely to be realised from this investment. METHODS: Mathematical modelling to project outcomes for 2016-2030 included: (S1) a counter-factual scenario (testing/treatment maintained at pre-2016 levels); (S2) the current status-quo (testing/treatment as actually occurred 2016-2019, with trends maintained to 2030); and (S3) elimination scenario (S2 plus testing/treatment rates increased between 2021-2030 to achieve the WHO elimination targets). FINDINGS: S1 resulted in 68,800 new hepatitis C infections and 18,540 hepatitis C-related deaths over 2016-2030. The total health system cost (HCV testing, treatment, disease management) was A$3.01 billion and the cost of lost productivity due to absenteeism, presenteeism and premature deaths was A$26.14 billion. S2 averted 15,700 (23%) new infections and 8,500 (46%) deaths by 2030, with a total health system cost of A$3.48 billion, A$472 million more than S1 (A$1.65 billion more in testing/treatment but A$1.20 billion less in disease costs; A$5,752 per QALY gained from a health systems perspective). Productivity loss over 2016-2030 was A$19.96 billion, A$6.17 less than S1, making S2 cost-saving from a societal perspective by 2022 with a net economic benefit of A$5.70 billion by 2030. S3 averted an additional 10,000 infections and 930 deaths compared with S2 and increased the longer-term economic benefit. INTERPRETATION: Five years of unrestricted access to DAAs in Australia has led to significant health benefits and is likely to become cost-saving from a societal perspective by 2022. FUNDING: Burnet Institute.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B is a chronic viral infection, a leading cause of primary liver cancer and identified as a major public health priority by the World Health Organization. Despite a high proportion of people in Australia who have been diagnosed with hepatitis B, significant gaps remain in health care access and in accurate knowledge about hepatitis B. Most people with hepatitis B in Australia were born in China, where the infection has an intergenerational impact with significant social implications resulting from the infection. Understanding how people of Chinese ethnicity with hepatitis B understand and respond to hepatitis B is imperative for reducing morbidity, mortality, and the personal and social impact of the infection. METHODS: Qualitative semi-structured interviews with people with hepatitis B of Chinese ethnicity recruited through a specialist service identified the advice people with hepatitis B thought was important enough to inform the experience of people newly diagnosed with hepatitis B. A thematic analysis of the data privileged the lived experience of participants and their personal, rather than clinical, explanations of the virus. RESULTS: Hepatitis B infection had psychological and physical consequences that were informed by cultural norms, and to which people had responded to with significant behavioural change. Despite this cohort being engaged with specialist clinical services with access to the most recent, comprehensive, and expert information, much of the advice people with hepatitis B identified as important for living with hepatitis B was not based on biomedical understandings. Key suggestions from people with hepatitis B were to form sustainable clinical relationships, develop emotional resilience, make dietary changes, regulate energy, and issues related to disclosure. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights conflicts between biomedical and public health explanations and the lived experience of hepatitis B among people of Chinese ethnici

OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility considerations for a decentralised, one-stop-shop model of care implemented in Yangon, Myanmar. SETTING: Two primary care level clinics in urban Yangon, Myanmar. DESIGN: This is a feasibility study of a highly effective care model. Using Intervention Complexity Framework by Gericke et al, we collated and analysed programmatic data and evaluation data to outline key project implementation requirements and experiences. PARTICIPANTS: Programmatic data were collected from clinical records, GeneXpert device test and maintenance reports, national guidelines, product and device instructions and site monitoring visit reports. Healthcare providers involved in delivering care model contributed interview data. RESULTS: The main feasibility considerations are appropriate storage for test kits and treatments (in response to temperature and humidity requirements), installation of a continuous stable electricity supply for the GeneXpert device, air-conditioning for the laboratory room hosting GeneXpert, access to a laboratory for pretreatment assessments and clear referral pathways for specialist consultation when required. Lessons from our project implementation experiences included the extensive time requirements for patient education, the importance of regular error monitoring and stock storage reviews and that flexible appointment scheduling and robust reminder system likely contributed to high retention in care. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed documentation and dissemination of feasibility requirements and implementation considerations is vital to assist others to successfully implement a similar model of care elsewhere. We provide 10 recommendations for successful implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03939013 on May 6, 2019. This manuscript presents post-results data on feasibility.

BACKGROUND: High vaccine uptake requires strong public support, acceptance, and willingness. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study gathered survey data every four weeks between 1 October 2020 and 9 November 2021 in Victoria, Australia. Data were analysed for 686 participants aged 18 years and older. RESULTS: Vaccine intention in our cohort increased from 60% in October 2020 to 99% in November 2021. Vaccine intention increased in all demographics, but longitudinal trends in vaccine intention differed by age, employment as a healthcare worker, presence of children in the household, and highest qualification attained. Acceptance of vaccine mandates increased from 50% in October 2020 to 71% in November 2021. Acceptance of vaccine mandates increased in all age groups except 18-25 years; acceptance also varied by gender and highest qualification attained. The main reasons for not intending to be vaccinated included safety concerns, including blood clots, and vaccine efficacy. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 vaccination campaigns should be informed by understanding of the sociodemographic drivers of vaccine acceptance to enable socially and culturally relevant guidance and ensure equitable vaccine coverage. Vaccination policies should be applied judiciously to avoid polarisation.

BACKGROUND: Stigma is a social process that impedes access to support for mental health conditions and alcohol and other drug (AOD) use, particularly for people from migrant and ethnic minority backgrounds. There is limited understanding, however, of people's experiences of stigma, the underlying drivers, intersections with ethnicity, gender, and citizenship status, and how powerful discourses and social institutions create and perpetuate systems of stigma. This review aims to synthesise and critically analyse qualitative evidence to understand how stigma associated with mental health conditions and AOD use operates among people from migrant and ethnic minority groups. METHODS: Qualitative evidence will be identified using MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Applied Social Sciences Index and Sociological Abstracts. Two reviewers will screen the titles, abstracts and full-text articles. Eligible studies will include original, empirical, peer-reviewed qualitative evidence, published in English since 1990. Studies must examine stigma in relation to mental health conditions, illicit drug use or alcohol consumption among participants who are from migrant and ethnic minority backgrounds. Studies will be critically appraised using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for qualitative studies and the level of confidence in the findings will be assessed using Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research. Data will be analysed using the 'best fit' framework synthesis approach, drawing on the Health Stigma and Discrimination Framework. DISCUSSION: This review will provide an in-depth understanding of the stigma associated with mental health conditions and AOD use among people from migrant and ethnic minority backgrounds. The findings will inform culturally responsive interventions that aim to reduce the negative impact of stigma on individuals, families and communities. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021204057.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the combined disciplines of public health, infectious disease and policy modelling squarely into the spotlight. Never before have decisions regarding public health measures and their impacts been such a topic of international deliberation, from the level of individuals and communities through to global leaders. Nor have models-developed at rapid pace and often in the absence of complete information-ever been so central to the decision-making process. However, after nearly 3 years of experience with modelling, policy-makers need to be more confident about which models will be most helpful to support them when taking public health decisions, and modellers need to better understand the factors that will lead to successful model adoption and utilization. We present a three-stage framework for achieving these ends.

BACKGROUND: In Australia, only 22% of people with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are clinically managed; and a national effort is engaging primary care workforce in providing CHB-related care. This study explored CHB-related knowledge, attitudes, barriers and support needs of general practitioners (GPs). METHODS: A survey was sent to a random sample of 1,000 Australian GPs in April- October 2018; 134 of 978 eligible GPs completed the questionnaire (14%). RESULTS: Respondents had high knowledge of at-risk populations (> 79%) and hepatitis B serology (82%), and most saw hepatitis B testing and monitoring as part of their work (95% and 86%, respectively). However, the survey revealed low knowledge, awareness and intention with respect to hepatitis B treatment: 23% correctly understood treatment initiation; 40% were aware that treatment for CHB could be dispensed in the community; 23% agreed that prescribing was part of their work. Lack of time was considered the greatest barrier (38%) and clear guidelines was the most important facilitator to providing care (72%). CONCLUSION: Interventions are needed to generate interest and skills to provide CHB-related care by GPs.

UNLABELLED: The Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) have experienced the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in different ways and with different timelines, with some experiencing large outbreaks leading to high levels of morbidity and mortality with significant strain on health systems, while others have had no local transmission or delayed transmission until after vaccine rollouts started. Regardless of COVID-19 trends, the pandemic has had a large impact on the social, political, and economic landscape in the Pacific, the effects of which are still being understood. However, the pandemic has also put renewed focus and investment into public health systems and provided an opportunity for the PICTs to build on existing systems and recent capacity strengthening to improve public health in the Region. FUNDING: Leila Bell was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship. Other funding sources had no role in paper design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation, or writing of the paper.

BACKGROUND: Prison-based hepatitis C treatment is safe and effective; however, many individuals are released untreated due to time or resource constraints. On community re-entry, individuals face a number of immediate competing priorities, and in this context, linkage to hepatitis C care is low. Interventions targeted at improving healthcare continuity after prison release have yielded positive outcomes for other health diagnoses; however, data regarding hepatitis C transitional care are limited. METHODS: We conducted a prospective randomized controlled trial comparing a hepatitis C care navigator intervention with standard of care for individuals released from prison with untreated hepatitis C infection. The primary outcome was prescription of hepatitis C direct-acting antivirals (DAA) within 6 months of release. RESULTS: Forty-six participants were randomized. The median age was 36 years and 59% were male. Ninety percent (n = 36 of 40) had injected drugs within 6 months before incarceration. Twenty-two were randomized to care navigation and 24 were randomized to standard of care. Individuals randomized to the intervention were more likely to commence hepatitis C DAAs within 6 months of release (73%, n = 16 of 22 vs 33% n = 8 of 24, P < .01), and the median time between re-entry and DAA prescription was significantly shorter (21 days [interquartile range {IQR}, 11-42] vs 82 days [IQR, 44-99], P = .049). CONCLUSIONS: Care navigation increased hepatitis C treatment uptake among untreated individuals released from prison. Public policy should support similar models of care to promote treatment in this high-risk population. Such an approach will help achieve hepatitis C elimination as a public health threat.

BACKGROUND: A key feature of the global public health response to contain and slow the spread of COVID-19 has been community-based quarantine and self-isolation. As part of The Optimise Study, this research sought to understand the factors that influence people's ability to undertake home-based quarantine and isolation to contain the spread of COVID-19. METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative phone interviews (n = 25) were conducted by telephone with people who participated in community-based quarantine in Australia before 31 March 2020. The Capability Opportunity Motivation Behaviour model was used to conduct a thematic analysis. RESULTS: Participants required clear, accessible and trusted information to guide them in home-based quarantine and isolation. A sense of social responsibility and belief in the efficacy of the restrictions to reduce viral transmission aided their motivation. Access to essential needs, supportive living environments, and emotional support were required to adhere to restrictions, but few were prepared. CONCLUSIONS: Findings demonstrate that in addition to having the capability and motivation to adhere to restrictions, it is vital that people are also encouraged to prepare for the challenge to ensure access to physical, social and emotional support. Findings also illustrate the importance of engaging communities in planning and preparedness for quarantine and self-isolation public health responses.

BACKGROUND: The city of Melbourne, Australia experienced two waves of the COVID-19 epidemic peaking, the first in March and a more substantial wave in July 2020. During the second wave, a series of control measure were progressively introduced that initially slowed the growth of the epidemic then resulted in decreasing cases until there was no detectable local transmission. METHODS: To determine the relative efficacy of the progressively introduced intervention measures, we modelled the second wave as a series of exponential growth and decay curves. We used a linear regression of the log of daily cases vs time, using a four-segment linear spline model corresponding to implementation of the three successive major public health measures. The primary model used all reported cases between 14 June and 15 September 2020 then compared the projection of the model with observed cases predicting future case trajectory up until the 31 October 2020 to assess the use of exponential models in projecting the future course and planning future interventions. The main outcome measures were the exponential daily growth constants, analysis of residuals and estimates of the 95% confidence intervals for the expected case distributions, comparison of predicted daily cases. RESULTS: The exponential growth/decay constants in the primary analysis were: 0.122 (s.e. 0.004), 0.035 (s.e. 0.005), - 0.037 (s.e. 0.011), and - 0.069 (s.e. 0.003) for the initial growth rate, Stage 3, Stage 3 + compulsory masks and Stage 4, respectively. Extrapolation of the regression model from the 14 September to the 31 October matched the decline in observed cases over this period. CONCLUSIONS: The four-segment exponential model provided an excellent fit of the observed reported case data and predicted the day-to-day range of expected cases. The extrapolated regression accurately predicted the decline leading to epidemic control in Melbourne.

BACKGROUND: In settings with zero community transmission, any new SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks are likely to be the result of random incursions. The level of restrictions in place at the time of the incursion is likely to considerably affect possible outbreak trajectories, but the probability that a large outbreak eventuates is not known. METHODS: We used an agent-based model to investigate the relationship between ongoing restrictions and behavioural factors, and the probability of an incursion causing an outbreak and the resulting growth rate. We applied our model to the state of Victoria, Australia, which has reached zero community transmission as of November 2020. RESULTS: We found that a future incursion has a 45% probability of causing an outbreak (defined as a 7-day average of > 5 new cases per day within 60 days) if no restrictions were in place, decreasing to 23% with a mandatory masks policy, density restrictions on venues such as restaurants, and if employees worked from home where possible. A drop in community symptomatic testing rates was associated with up to a 10-percentage point increase in outbreak probability, highlighting the importance of maintaining high testing rates as part of a suppression strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Because the chance of an incursion occurring is closely related to border controls, outbreak risk management strategies require an integrated approaching spanning border controls, ongoing restrictions, and plans for response. Each individual restriction or control strategy reduces the risk of an outbreak. They can be traded off against each other, but if too many are removed there is a danger of accumulating an unsafe level of risk. The outbreak probabilities estimated in this study are of particular relevance in assessing the downstream risks associated with increased international travel.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In moving towards the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among people living with HIV, understanding HCV transmission patterns may provide insights to guide and evaluate interventions. In this study, we evaluated patterns of, and factors associated with HCV phylogenetic clustering among people living with HIV/HCV co-infection in Australia in the direct-acting antiviral era. METHODS: HCV RNA was extracted from dried blood spot (DBS) samples collected between 2014 and 2018 in the CEASE cohort study. The HCV Core-E2 region was amplified by a polymerase chain reaction and Sanger sequenced. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees (1000 bootstrap replicates) were used to identify patterns of clustering (3% genetic distance threshold). Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to determine correlates of phylogenetic clustering. Factors assessed were sexual risk behavior, education, injecting drug use, housing, employment, HIV viral load, age, sex, and sexuality. RESULTS: Phylogenetic trees were reconstructed for HCV subtype 1a (n = 139) and 3a (n = 63) sequences, with 29% (58/202) in a pair or cluster. Overall (n = 202), phylogenetic clustering was positively associated with younger age (under 40; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-5.29), and among gay and bisexual men (n = 168), was positively associated with younger age (aOR 2.61, 95% CI 1.10-6.19), higher education (aOR 2.58, 95% CI 1.09-6.13), and reporting high-risk sexual behavior (aOR 3.94, 95% CI 1.31-11.84). During follow-up, five reinfections were observed, but none were in phylogenetic clusters. CONCLUSION: This study found a high proportion of phylogenetic relatedness, predominantly among younger people and gay and bisexual men reporting high-risk sexual behavior. Despite this, few reinfections were observed, and reinfections demonstrated little relationship with known clusters. These findings highlight the importance of rapid HCV treatment initia