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Abstract Sub-Saharan Africa is under-represented in global biodiversity datasets, particularly regarding the impact of land use on species’ population abundances. Drawing on recent advances in expert elicitation to ensure data consistency, 200 experts were convened using a modified-Delphi process to estimate ‘intactness scores’: the remaining proportion of an ‘intact’ reference population of a species group in a particular land use, on a scale from 0 (no remaining individuals) to 1 (same abundance as the reference) and, in rare cases, to 2 (populations that thrive in human-modified landscapes). The resulting bii4africa dataset contains intactness scores representing terrestrial vertebrates (tetrapods: ±5,400 amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) and vascular plants (±45,000 forbs, graminoids, trees, shrubs) in sub-Saharan Africa across the region’s major land uses (urban, cropland, rangeland, plantation, protected, etc.) and intensities (e.g., large-scale vs smallholder cropland). This dataset was co-produced as part of the Biodiversity Intactness Index for Africa Project. Additional uses include assessing ecosystem condition; rectifying geographic/taxonomic biases in global biodiversity indicators and maps; and informing the Red List of Ecosystems.

Study area: The study was conducted in the Tankwa Karoo National Park, one of the driest areas in South Africa. Historic overgrazing has resulted in the poor and often degraded state of vegetation in large parts of the Tanqua Karoo region. Aim: This study assessed the spatial variation of vegetation structure and composition in the three main vegetation types namely: Tanqua Karoo (TK), Tanqua Wash Riviere (TWR) and Tanqua Escarpment Shrubland (TES), along an elevational gradient. Method: Using the point intercept survey method, vegetation cover, plant height, species diversity, life forms, proportions of perennials and annuals were examined in 43 sites, widely distributed in these vegetation types. Results: There were 150 vascular plant species belonging to 83 genera and 29 families recorded across all sites. The most diverse vegetation type was TES with 96 species belonging to 61 genera and 26 families. The vegetation structure was comprised mainly of shrubs and dwarf shrubs with a high proportion of leaf and stem succulent species. The mean perennial vegetation cover throughout the study area was 28 and annuals covered 22%, but this cover varied significantly between the vegetation types. The most dominant life forms were chamaephytes, which comprised 64% of all species, with cryptophytes (18%), therophytes (16%) and nanophanerophytes (2%) less abundant. Surveyed sites in the TES showed a clear association with each other but there was an overlap in the species composition and environmental conditions between some TWR and TK sites. This study highlighted the important role of elevation and topography as drivers of vegetation characteristics. Conclusion: The findings from this study can be used as a vegetation baseline to identify and prioritise degraded areas for active restoration in order to limit further degradation. Considering climate change, elevational studies may provide additional insight into species dynamics across landscapes. Taxonomic reference: Plants of Southern Africa Checklist (South African National Biodiversity Institute 2016). Abbreviations: ANOVA = analysis of variance; GPS = Global Positioning System; LFA = Landscape Function Assessment; NDVI = Normalized difference vegetation index; PCA = principal component analysis; PCo-A = principal co-ordinate analysis; TES = Tanqua Escarpment Shrubland; TK = Tanqua Karoo; TKNP = Tankwa Karoo National Park; TWR = Tanqua Wash Riviere.

Changes in land use and land cover over space and time are an indication of biophysical, socio-economic, and political dynamics. In rural communities, land-based livelihood strategies such as agriculture are crucial for sustaining livelihoods in terms of food provision and as a source of local employment and income. In recent years, African studies have documented an overall decline in the extent of small-scale crop farming, with many crop fields left abandoned. This study uses rural areas in three former apartheid homelands in South Africa as a case study to quantify patterns and trends in the overall land cover change and small-scale agricultural lands related to changes in climate over a 38-year period. Random forest classification was applied on the Landsat imagery to detect land use and land cover change, achieving an overall accuracy of above 80%. Rainfall and temperature anomalies, as well as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used as climate proxies to assess the influence of climate variability on crop farming, as the systems investigated rely completely on rainfall. Agricultural land declined from 107.5 km2 to 49.5 km2 in Umhlabuyalingana; 54 km2 to 1.6 km2 in Joe Morolong; and 254.6 km2 to 7.4 km2 in Mangaung between 1984 and 2022. Declines in cropland cover, precipitation, and the SPEI were highly correlated. We argue that climatic variability influences crop farming activities; however, this could be one factor in a suite of drivers that interact together to influence the cropping practices in rural areas.

Abstract Woody structure, particularly that created by large trees, is crucial to savanna biodiversity pattern and process. We assessed changes in vertical and horizontal canopy over 15 years of saplings of Vachellia (Acacia) erioloba (camelthorn), a keystone species and one of the only trees to grow large in arid savanna on low rainfall areas of Kalahari sands, southern Africa. We also assessed whether the fastest growing saplings over the 2003–2004 growing season were also the fastest growing over the following 15 years. We measured height, canopy extent, and diameter of largest stem at ground level of 120 saplings of V. erioloba in November 2003, remeasuring these in March 2004. In November 2019, we were able to find 67 of these saplings, and we measured them again to assess growth between 2004 and 2019. We modeled interindividual explanatory variables for growth (i.e., measures taken in 2004 of height, diameter, number of stems, evidence of fire, and largest stem diameter). We also compared residuals of growth between 2003 and 2004 with those between 2004 and 2019, to assess whether individuals showed similar progress relative to their peers over the two periods considered. Height increase was extremely variable, but mean increase over 15 years was only 45.4 mm, similar to that measured for the 2003–2004 growing season (43.1 mm). Mean horizontal canopy showed far greater growth (mean 120.2 mm over 15 years, compared with 7.12 mm over 2003–2004) than vertical growth. Individuals that had shown the fastest increase in horizontal canopy in 2003–2004 tended to be the same individuals that grew fastest over the following 15 years, but even the highest “achievers” showed increases of only 47.2 mm and 37.5 mm year−1 in average horizontal canopy extent and height, respectively. This study demonstrates how crucial long‐term studies are, particularly in arid systems. Many individuals may be trapped in the “sapling” class and could take decades to become large trees. Woody sapling growth was not cumulative, and modeling studies in savannas should be cautious in extrapolating growth from one season to several years.

A part of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will be constructed in the northern Karoo of South Africa on approximately 135 000 ha of land. This land is formerly privately owned rangelands (farms) that were purchased by the South African National Research Foundation (NRF), on which the South African Radio Astronomy Observatory, as part of the global SKA project, will erect the SKA infrastructure. Additionally, a long-term environmental research programme will be established to investigate various dryland ecosystem components at a landscape scale. Livestock has been removed from the farms, and the area is now managed by the South African National Parks (SANParks) as the Meerkat National Park. The land-use and land cover changes present an unprecedented opportunity to study ecosystem dynamics. The property will be established as an NRF science park, incorporating an SKA research platform for radio astronomy and an environmental research platform of the South African Environmental Observation Network, with additional environmental research conducted by SANParks and their collaborators. We briefly describe current knowledge of the area’s environment, and report on past and contemporary changes in this part of the Karoo. We present a conceptual model for the larger landscape which considers possible future land-use scenarios, the projected trajectories of change under these scenarios, and factors influencing these trajectories. These deliberations represent the foundation for future research in this landscape and the development of an environmental observation research platform in the Karoo at SKA. Significance: • We summarise an extensive environmental baseline report on the SKA property and surrounding areas. • Withdrawal of livestock and other changes – such as clearing of alien invasive plants, reduced predator control and reduction in water-point maintenance – are expected to bring about changes in ecological processes and plant and animal communities. • We present a conceptual model of scenarios to test possible future trajectories as a first step towards an earth system science research platform in the NRF science park.

Vachellia erioloba is a keystone tree species in the southern Kalahari. This long-term study over nearly four decades tracks two populations in different landscapes (the interior sandy duneveld versus the clayey Nossob riverbed) of a large conservation area and offers valuable data on this species under natural soil moisture conditions and with limited anthropogenic influences. In 1978, 18 trees were permanently marked in a 1 ha plot in the interior duneveld of the Kalahari Gemsbok National Park (Dankbaar site). In the Nossob riverbed all trees in a 1 ha plot were surveyed in 1979 (Grootkolk site). At both sites, tree height and stem circumference were subsequently measured at irregular intervals until 2016 in order to investigate growth rates and population structure. Of the 18 marked trees at Dankbaar, six died and three showed coppice regrowth following substantial dieback after a fire. A mean height increase of 60 mm/year was recorded and the mean height of the remaining uncoppiced trees was 6.8 m in 2016. Stem diameter growth rate per year varied widely between trees and between years with a mean value of 2.5 mm/year over the 38-year period. Growth rate calculated for three 10-year intervals varied. Using the mean growth rate derived in the current study and stem size of the dead trees, the mean age of the trees when they died was estimated. At the Grootkolk site, the position of the centroid in relation to the midpoint of the diameter class range suggests that this population is gradually becoming a mature to old population with limited recruitment. This was supported by the size class distribution curves. However, no differences between slopes or intercepts of the stem diameter size class distributions were found. Conservation implications: This study was conducted in a large conservation area, that is, a natural ecosystem excluding most of the anthropogenic threats that are present outside of the park. The study illustrated that in the duneveld the population studied was self-sustaining, with recruitment occurring and large individuals presumably dying of old age. Although fire caused a few individuals to coppice, no fire-related deaths were reported. In the Nossob riverbed, surveys started in a stand of predominantly young trees and the size class distribution at that stage already showed a lack of recruitment. This stand is ageing and will likely disappear at this site; however, new young stands are appearing at other sites in the Nossob riverbed. Under the current conditions with negligible anthropogenic influences, it therefore appears that some V. erioloba populations in the park are increasing in size while others are decreasing, but that overall the species will persist. The impact of global climate change on this species is, however, unknown.

Background: Akkerendam Nature Reserve is the second oldest proclaimed municipal nature reserve in the Northern Cape, yet to date no vegetation map has been produced. The possible expansion of the reserve is under consideration. Objectives: To produce a vegetation map, classification and description of the vegetation of the reserve and proposed expansion area, and assess how the vegetation has changed over the past century. Method: Braun Blanquet methodology was used to produce a vegetation map. To quantify vegetation change, (1) relevés (a plot of phytosociological data) composed from Acocks’ species lists, recorded in 1954 and 1956, were compared with the phytosociological table, and (2) recent repeat photographs (2016) were compared to four images taken by Pole Evans (ca. 1920). Results: Three plant communities were identified within the reserve and expansion area; however, four subcommunities are only found in the proposed expansion area. Relevés compiled from Acocks’ species lists were absorbed into the phytosociological table indicating that no significant vegetation change has taken place in the last approximately 60 years. This study found 222 species in common with Acocks’ species lists; however, he did not list the alien invasive species Prosopis glandulosa. Comparison of repeat photographs with images taken nearly a century earlier suggests that, except for the impact of recent fires, the composition remained relatively similar. Conclusion: The phytosociological approach adopted has provided a map of the vegetation units of the study area, while the historical comparisons indicate that the vegetation of Akkerendam Nature Reserve has not undergone significant change over the last 100 years.

The Hantam-Tanqua-Roggeveld subregion lies within the Succulent Karoo Hotspot that stretches along the western side of the Republic of South Africa and Namibia. This project, carried out to document the botanical diversity in the Hantam-Tanqua-Roggeveld subregion, was part of a project identified as a priority during the SKEP (Succulent Karoo Ecosystem Programme) initiative in this Hotspot. Botanical surveys were conducted in an area covering over three million hectares. Satellite images of the area and topocadastral, land type and geology maps were used to stratify the area into relatively homogeneous units. An analysis of the floristic data of 390 sample plots identified two major floristic units, i.e. the Fynbos Biome related vegetation and the Succulent Karoo Biome related vegetation. A description of the vegetation related to the Succulent Karoo Biome is presented in this article. Seven associations, 16 subassociations and several mosaic vegetation units, consisting of more than one vegetation unit, were identified and mapped. Various threats to the vegetation in the region were identified during the survey and are briefly discussed.

The Succulent Karoo Hotspot stretches along the western side of the Republic of South Africa and Namibia. A lack of botanical information on the Hantam-Tanqua-Roggeveld area of the Succulent Karoo Hotspot was identified during the SKEP (Succulent Karoo Ecosystem Plan) process. A grant from CEPF (Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund) funded a study to produce a vegetation map of the area to serve as baseline for ecosystem management. Vegetation surveys were conducted over an area of more than three million hectares from August to October 2004. Two major floristic units were identified, namely the Fynbos Biome related (Mountain Renosterveld) and Succulent Karoo Biome related units. An analysis of the floristic data of the predominantly Mountain Renosterveld vegetation unit is presented in this paper. Three associations were identified, which were subdivided into nine subassociations, one of which contains four variants. The vegetation units are described in terms of their species composition and their relationships with the physical environment. A vegetation map is provided depicting the geographical distribution of the different vegetation types. The main threat to the vegetation of the region identified by the farming community was a lack of infrastructure.

The Hantam–Tanqua–Roggeveld subregion falls within the Succulent Karoo and Fynbos Biomes, which are both recognised as global biodiversity hotspots that should be conserved. The objective of this study was to gather baseline biodiversity information that can be used to guide conservation efforts. A total of 40 Whittaker plots were surveyed in the subregion and the various diversity parameters calculated from the data were compared across the subregion and to available data for the Succulent Karoo and Fynbos Biomes. Species richness per 1000 m2 ranged from nine to 100 species across the subregion. Species richness for all plot sizes < 1000 m2 was significantly lower for the Tanqua Karoo than for both the Winter Rainfall Karoo and Mountain Renosterveld. The latter two areas did not differ significantly from each other with regard to species richness. Species richness was significantly higher only at the 1000 m2 scale in the Mountain Renosterveld compared to the Winter Rainfall Karoo. Evenness and Shannon and Simpson indices did not differ significantly between the Mountain Renosterveld and Winter Rainfall Karoo; however, these values were significantly higher than for the Tanqua Karoo. A principal coordinate analysis of species richness data at seven plot sizes produced three distinct clusters. One cluster represented the Tanqua Karoo, with low species richness, evenness, and Shannon and Simpson indices. Another cluster represented mostly Mountain Renosterveld vegetation, which was characterised by a high species richness, evenness, and Shannon and Simpson indices. The third cluster was formed by the remaining Mountain Renosterveld plots as well as the Winter Rainfall Karoo plots. The high species richness values found in the various vegetation units can add valuable information to the conservation planning arena by providing information on biodiversity parameters and their spatial distribution. This information can assist with conservation efforts in the Hantam, Tanqua and Roggeveld areas. Conservation implications: Conservation and development of the Hantam–Tanqua– Roggeveld subregion is hampered by a lack of information on floristic diversity. The results of the current study indicated areas of low diversity and contrasting areas of high diversity. These data can be used to guide effective conservation and management of the floristic diversity.

National Park and to investigate whether the time since abandonment has impacted on the diversity and mass flowering displays. Sixty-two old field sample sites were surveyed using the Braun-Blanquet method. Floristic data were analysed to produce a hierarchical classification, while a principal coordinates analysis was used to establish whether the ordination supported the classification. Species richness (total number of taxa), as well as the Shannon-Wiener diversity index, was calculated per vegetation unit for the different life forms. Four old field communities were identified, each containing a unique complement of species, which differed in their potential to produce a mass flowering display. On the Skilpad section of the park, Ursinia cakilefolia dominated the spectacular mass floral displays for which the park has become well known. Old fields in other parts of the park did not produce the same spectacular displays. Although total and perennial species richness did not differ significantly with time since abandonment, the richness of annual species, in particular of the showy annual species, decreased with time since abandonment. The relative contribution of the perennial species to vegetation cover increased with time since abandonment, whereas the relative contribution made by showy annual species to vegetation cover declined with time since abandonment. Although species composition and the potential to produce mass flowering displays of the four communities differed, diversity parameters were similar. However, to maintain a flower display for tourists on the Skilpad section, a degree of disturbance is essential. Conservation implication: Although deliberate disturbance is not desirable in a national park, we find that some disturbance is essential to maintain a spectacular flowering display. However, these intentionally disturbed old fields cover only a small proportion of the total area of the park. All other old fields in the park should not be disturbed, and should be allowed to recover naturally.