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Objective Although anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (anti-TNFα) therapies represent a major breakthrough in IBD therapy, their cost–benefit ratio is hampered by an overall 30% non-response rate, adverse side effects and high costs. Thus, finding predictive biomarkers of non-response prior to commencing anti-TNFα therapy is of high value. Design We analysed publicly available whole-genome expression profiles of colon biopsies obtained from multiple cohorts of patients with IBD using a combined computational deconvolution—meta-analysis paradigm which allows to estimate immune cell contribution to the measured expression and capture differential regulatory programmes otherwise masked due to variation in cellular composition. Insights from this in silico approach were experimentally validated in biopsies and blood samples of three independent test cohorts. Results We found the proportion of plasma cells as a robust pretreatment biomarker of non-response to therapy, which we validated in two independent cohorts of immune-stained colon biopsies, where a plasma cellular score from inflamed biopsies was predictive of non-response with an area under the curve (AUC) of 82%. Meta-analysis of the cell proportion-adjusted gene expression data suggested that an increase in inflammatory macrophages in anti-TNFα non-responding individuals is associated with the upregulation of the triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (TREM-1) and chemokine receptor type 2 (CCR2)-chemokine ligand 7 (CCL7) –axes. Blood gene expression analysis of an independent cohort, identified TREM-1 downregulation in non-responders at baseline, which was predictive of response with an AUC of 94%. Conclusions Our study proposes two clinically feasible assays, one in biopsy and one in blood, for predicting non-response to anti-TNFα therapy prior to initiation of treatment. Moreover, it suggests that mechanism-driven novel drugs for non-responders should be developed.

BACKGROUND: With the changed therapeutic armamentarium for Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), biomarkers predicting treatment response are urgently needed. We studied whole blood and mucosal expression of genes previously reported to predict outcome to anti-TNF therapy, and investigated if the signature was specific for anti-TNF agents. METHODS: We prospectively included 54 active IBD patients (24CD, 30UC) initiating anti-TNF therapy, as well as 22 CD patients initiating ustekinumab and 51 patients initiating vedolizumab (25CD, 26UC). Whole blood expression of OSM, TREM1, TNF and TNFR2 was measured prior to start of therapy using qPCR, and mucosal gene expression in inflamed biopsies using RNA-sequencing. Response was defined as endoscopic remission (SES-CD ≤ 2 at week 24 for CD and Mayo endoscopic sub-score ≤ 1 at week 10 for UC). FINDINGS: Baseline whole blood TREM1 was downregulated in future anti-TNF responders, both in UC (FC = 0.53, p = .001) and CD (FC = 0.66, p = .007), as well as in the complete cohort (FC = 0.67, p