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This paper conducts a systematic comparison of two main textbook variants within the Kaleckian tradition of post-Keynesian conflict inflation and distribution theory: the Blecker and Setterfield (2019) and Lavoie (1992; 2022) (BSL) model based on Dutt (1987), and the Hein (2023a) and Hein and Stockhammer (2011) (HS) model founded on Rowthorn (1977). Focusing on a basic closed economy framework sans government, we explore various iterations of each approach. Our analysis reveals that disparities chiefly centre around the treatment of price inflation expectations (‘indexation’) and the incorporation of bargaining power in wage- and price-inflation equations. BSL variants generally yield stable price Phillips curves, stable distribution and employment curves, and hence stable equilibria. Only the BSL-3 variant with complete indexation and complete pass-through generates shifting Phillips and employment curves, implying instability. It is thus similar to the HS-0 approach, which has bargaining power and complete indexation representing adaptive expectations in wage inflation and incomplete pass-through in price inflation. Introducing a workers’ wage share target directly into the wage-inflation equation, but keeping full indexation/adaptive expectations in wage inflation and incomplete pass-through in price inflation, allows for stable and even flat Phillips curves, stable distribution and employment curves, and hence stable equilibria in the HS approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a simple closed-economy model that is driven by the growth of two autonomous components of demand, namely government spending and rentiers’ consumption out of interest income. Using this model, it seeks to make two contributions. First, by focusing on the financial dynamics that arise from debt-financed government spending, we show that an underlying stock-flow interaction provides an endogenous mechanism which, under certain conditions, aligns the two autonomous growth rates in the long run. Hence, an economy can be driven by two autonomous components of demand, without one dominating the other in the long-run nor without policy changes being required to align the two growth drivers. Second, we prove that if two autonomous demand components are dynamically interdependent, then the relative size of their growth contributions may be misleading as a guide to classify growth regimes, both in the long-run equilibrium as well as during the traverse towards this equilibrium. Furthermore, we show that the relative growth contributions are economic policy contingent. We thus argue that interdependencies between autonomous growth components arising from financial stock-flow interactions should not be ignored in Sraffian supermultiplier growth decomposition exercises that aim to identify underlying growth drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Connecting comparative political economy (CPE) approaches, as the Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) theory, with post-Keynesian (PK) research on different demand and growth regimes in modern capitalism has recently given rise to some interesting claims regarding differentiation and shifts of demand and growth regimes. However, we find some difficulties in the way PK approaches have been interpreted and integrated in modern CPE approaches. Therefore, we first provide a theoretically consistent and empirically applicable classification of demand and growth regimes under the conditions of finance-dominated capitalism, as it recently has been proposed by PK authors. Second, instead of using the traditional VoC dual classification, we focus on a more differentiated welfare model classification, which can be seen as different socio-institutional responses towards the challenges of globalisation and financialisation. For the period before the 2007-9 crisis, we link the PK demand and growth regimes with five socio-economic models identified by Hay and Wincott (2012), and thus provide an alternative approach. Third, going beyond the current debate, we examine the regime shifts after the 2007-9 global crisis with respect to the demand and growth regimes, and we also examine the changes within the welfare models. Whereas we find a clear pattern for the shift of demand and growth regimes, the changes in the welfare models are not as clear-cut. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current Covid-19 Crisis 2020 has hit the Eurozone in a highly fragile situation, with a weak and asymmetric recovery from the Great Financial Crisis, the Great Recession and the following Eurozone Crisis. These crises have revealed the weaknesses of the macroeconomic policy institutions and strategies of the Eurozone based on New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM). Applying a Kaleckian/post-Keynesian analysis of the demand and growth regimes to the EA-12 countries, we show that the internal imbalances within the EA-12 before the Eurozone have been externalised since then. Most of the countries and the EA-12 as a whole have now turned export-led mercantilist and thus highly vulnerable to fluctuations in world demand. For an economic policy alternative we turn towards Kalecki's macroeconomic policy proposals for achieving and maintaining full employment in a capitalist economy by government deficit expenditures, in combination with re-distribution policies in favour of labour and low-income households, assisted by central banks targeting low interest rates. This approach is then applied to the Eurozone, in order to derive a policy mix which should contribute to a more rapid recovery from the Covid-19 Crisis and to a medium- to long-run non-inflationary full employment domestic demand-led regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a gender wage gap into basic one-good textbook versions of the neo-Kaleckian distribution and growth model for a developed capitalist economy and examine the effects of improving gender wage equality on income distribution, aggregate demand, capital accumulation and productivity growth. For the closed economy model, reducing the gender wage gap has no effect on the profit share, and a gender equality-led regime requires the propensity to save out of female wages to fall short of the propensity to save out of male wages. For the open economy model, this condition is modified by the effects of improved gender wage equality on exports, and – through changes of the profit share – on domestic demand. Finally, for the open economy with productivity growth we find an unambiguously expansionary effect of narrowing the gender wage gap on long-run equilibrium capital accumulation and productivity growth if the demand growth regime is gender equality-led. A gender equality-burdened demand growth regime, however, may generate different long-run effects of improving gender wage equality on capital accumulation and productivity growth: expansionary, intermediate or contractionary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we examine if, and to what extent, a general Kaleckian analysis of the potential effects of financialisation on income shares in advanced capitalist economies is of relevance for the three Eurozone countries under investigation—France, Germany and Spain—in the period before the recent financial and economic crisis. Second, we study changes in the financialisation-distribution nexus that have occurred in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis. We find that the countries examined here have shown broad similarities regarding redistribution before the crisis, although there are some differences in the underlying determinants. These differences have continued during the period after the crisis and have led to different results in the development of distribution since then. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New Consensus Models (NCMs) have been criticised by Post-Keynesians for a variety of reasons, and amendments or alternatives have been presented. The present paper attempts to provide a Post-Keynesian alternative model to the NCM. The model consists of three classes: rentiers, firms and workers. It has a short-run inflation barrier derived from distribution conflict between these classes, which is endogenous in the medium run. Distribution conflict affects not only inflation but also income shares. On the demand side, the income classes have different saving propensities. We apply a Kaleckian investment function with expected sales and internal funds as major determinants. The paper analyses short-run stability and includes medium-run endogeneity channels for the Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment, or NAIRU: persistence mechanisms in the labour market, adaptive wage and profit aspirations, investment in capital stock and cost effects of interest rate changes. From the model, Post-Keynesian policy rules are derived. We argue that improved employment without increasing inflation will be possible if macroeconomic policies are coordinated along the following lines: the central bank targets distribution, wage bargaining parties target inflation and fiscal policies are applied for short- and medium-run real stabilisation purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We establish the link between rising shareholder power on the firm level, increasing pressure on labour, and redistribution at the expense of wages, with the macroeconomic effects on capacity utilisation, profits and capital accumulation. Three channels of transmission of 'financialisation' and increasing shareholder power, the 'preference channel', the 'finance channel' and the 'distribution channel', are introduced into two different variants of the Kaleckian distribution and growth model, the Kaleckian model and the Post-Kaleckian model. Within these models, three potential regimes of accumulation are derived, the 'contractive' regime, the 'profits without investment' regime, and the 'finance-led growth' regime. Only the 'profits without investment' regime generates a strict micro-macro identity, whereas the other two regimes are characterised by fallacies of composition, a 'paradox of accumulation' in the 'finance-led growth' regime and a 'paradox of profits' in the 'contractive' regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the relationship between functional income distribution and economic growth in France and Germany from 1960 until 2005. The analysis is based on a demand-driven distribution and growth model for an open economy inspired by Bhaduri & Marglin (1990), which allows for profit- or wage-led growth. First, we apply a single equation approach, estimating the effects of redistribution on the demand aggregates and summing up these effects in order to obtain the total effect of redistribution on GDP growth. Since interactions between the demand aggregates are omitted from this approach, we also apply a simulation approach taking into account these interactions. In the single equation approach we find that growth in France was wage-led, whereas the effect in Germany was undetermined. The results of the simulation approach, however, suggest that the wage-led nature of growth in France becomes even more pronounced when considering the interactions between the demand aggregates, while in Germany the simulations show a tendency towards wage-led growth in the longer run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starting from Schumpeter's important distinction between ‘real analysis’ and ‘monetary analysis’, in this paper it is shown that major elements of Marx's economic theory fall in the camp of ‘monetary analysis’. This is true for Marx's theory of value, his rejection of Ricardo's interpretation of Say's Law, his treatment of the realization problem in the schemes of reproduction and his theories of credit and the rate of interest. The implications of this monetary interpretation for Marx's theory of distribution and growth display broad similarities to a monetary extension of a Kaleckian version of the post-Keynesian model, in which the equilibrium growth path is determined by the interaction between monetary and real variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is now widely acknowledged that the structural characteristics of the countries to form the European Monetary Union (EMU) did not meet the conditions of an optimum currency area (OCA) when the euro was introduced in 1999. The OCA criteria appear to have little relevance for monetary integration, because they fail to capture the importance of macroeconomic policy institutions for growth and convergence across a currency union. This paper examines the effects of the EMU framework for monetary, fiscal and wage policies on overall growth and on convergence across the euro area. It is concluded that the years before and after the introduction of the euro were characterized by a restrictive policy mix that has not been conducive to aggregate growth nor to real convergence. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]