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Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors are or have been involved in delivering Postgraduate Child Health Programmes in the UK.

Background: Anesthesiologists provide crucial anesthesiology services in the operating room and non-operating room locations. Combined with an aging and growing Israeli population, there is an increasing demand for anesthesiology services. A previous study performed in 2005 showed that most anesthesiologists are immigrant physicians with few Israeli medical school graduates. Since then, physician immigration decreased, many have retired and demand for anesthesia services has increased while insufficient numbers of new anesthesiologists were trained, leading to a shortage, limiting surgeries and other procedures in many hospitals. The present study examined the composition of the Israeli anesthesiology workforce in 2021and compared it to the 2005 workforce., Methods: A cross-sectional survey of demographic and professional information about each Israeli hospital anesthesiologists was solicited from 34 anesthesiology department chairs responsible for 36 Israeli acute care hospitals., Results: There are 1313 anesthesiologists in the 36 hospitals, resulting in a ratio of 14.2 anesthesiologists per 100,000 population. 22.6% of anesthesiologists will reach retirement age over the next ten years. The proportion of female anesthesiologists was 28.7%. While Israeli medical school graduates increased to 18.1% from 12.2% in 2005, non-Israeli citizens and non-permanent residents comprised 8.5% of the workforce., Conclusions: Despite growth in the ratio of anesthesiologists per population, a workforce shortage is expected to worsen over the next ten years due to retirements, shortened call hours, and the Yatziv reform which bans graduates of certain overseas medical schools from obtaining Israeli Medical Licenses. The current workforce has compensated for the existing shortage of anesthesiologists by enlisting non-Israeli trainees from overseas. Yet, it is crucial to maintain and enlarge the local Israeli workforce to forestall a worsening shortage., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Background: Historical data and a partial description of the ongoing neurosurgical scenario in Nepal were reported and published earlier. However, updated data on neurosurgical manpower in Nepal has not yet been published. This study aims to explore the neurosurgical workforce in Nepal involved in different administrative territories and in different health sectors., Methods: This is a cross-sectional descriptive study. A nationwide survey was conducted through personal communication from April to September of 2023. Data on neurosurgeons in all 7 provinces of the country and the major sectors of the health services were collected. Similarly, the number of neurosurgeons in the country every year from 1988 was also collected., Results: Through September 2023, there are 114 actively practicing neurosurgeons in the country for the population of 29,164,578, meaning 1 neurosurgeon serving about 255,829 people. Neurosurgeons are available in all 7 provinces of the country. More than half of the neurosurgeons in the country are fully involved in private practice while about one-third are in medical college and less than one-fifth are in the government service. The capital city has more than half of the neurosurgeons of the country., Conclusions: The number of neurosurgeons in the country is still small, however its ratio with population is better than most of the other South Asian countries. In a short period of time, neurosurgical service flourished significantly in Nepal and is available in all the provinces and thus it has become more easily accessible., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The imbalance in anesthesia workforce supply and demand has been exacerbated post-COVID due to a surge in demand for anesthesia care, especially in non-operating room anesthetizing sites, at a faster rate than the increase in anesthesia clinicians. The consequences of this imbalance or labor shortage compromise healthcare facilities, adversely affect the cost of care, worsen anesthesia workforce burnout, disrupt procedural and surgical schedules, and threaten academic missions and the ability to educate future anesthesiologists. In developing possible solutions, one must examine emerging trends that are affecting the anesthesia workforce, new technologies that will transform anesthesia care and the workforce, and financial considerations, including governmental payment policies. Possible practice solutions to this imbalance will require both short- and long-term multifactorial approaches that include increasing training positions and retention policies, improving capacity through innovations, leveraging technology, and addressing financial constraints., (Copyright © 2024 American Society of Anesthesiologists. All Rights Reserved.)

Aim: The aim of this study was to update and project the growth of ophthalmologists in New Zealand. This will help decision makers better understand the current ophthalmologist workforce and make appropriate resource allocations., Method: Supply and demographics of ophthalmologists in New Zealand were obtained from the Medical Council of New Zealand, Health Workforce New Zealand and Health New Zealand - Te Whatu Ora. Ophthalmology trainee numbers were extracted from the annual reports of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists (RANZCO). New Zealand population statistics were extracted from the Stats NZ database. A simulation model was developed to project the growth of ophthalmologists from 2024 to 2050., Results: In March 2023, there were 175 practising ophthalmologists in New Zealand. Overall, there were 34.0 ophthalmologists per million population, with 201.4 ophthalmologists per million for those aged ≥65 years. To maintain the current ratio, an additional 20 practising ophthalmologists are needed by 2050., Conclusion: The ratio of ophthalmologists per million population aged ≥65 years is projected to drop by 1.5% annually. To meet the demand of an increasing and ageing population, and RANZCO's goal of 40 ophthalmologists per million population, there needs to be an increase in ophthalmologist training positions from the current 5-year average of 6.6 to 11 new trainees annually, and a more effective distribution of the ophthalmologist workforce., Competing Interests: None., (© PMA.)

Aim of This Study: General internal medicine is a crucial element in healthcare systems. Understanding how many people are and will be working in this field is important to maintain and improve quality for patients in healthcare systems. This can provide a basis for political decisions., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study to analyse the current and future workforce of generalists (general practitioners and internists in hospitals) in Switzerland. The Swiss Society of General Internal Medicine (SSGIM) distributed a survey to all members. Respondents were asked about their current average workload in 2023 and planned workload in 2033. The responses were used to calculate full-time equivalent (FTE) for the current and future workforce of generalists and to extrapolate FTE for all active SSGIM members. To model the demand by 2033, we derived different scenarios., Results: Of all 6,232 active SSGIM members, 2,030 (33%) participated: 46% female, 25% (largest age group) 56-65 years old, 19% still in postgraduate training. The average workload in 2023 was 78% for female and 87% for male generalists; the FTE extrapolated to all active SSGIM members in 2023 was 5,246. By 2033, 1,935 FTEs (36%) will retire, 502 FTEs (10%) will reduce their workload, 116 FTEs (2%) will increase their workload and 2,800 FTEs (53%) will remain in the workforce with the same workload as in 2023. To maintain the same workforce as in 2023, 2,321 new FTEs (44%) will be needed by 2033. To fill this gap of 232 FTE new generalists per year, we modelled different scenarios with assumptions of interest, workload, migration and dropouts., Conclusions: Within only one decade, 44% of the current workforce of generalists will disappear, mainly due to retirement and decreased workload. To fill this gap, various scenarios need to be incorporated. Politicians are called upon to create the political framework to create attractive training and working conditions for generalists to address the future demand for healthcare services.

Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest: See Disclosures at the end of the article.

Purpose: The number of Canadians diagnosed with cancer, and subsequent demand for radiation therapy, are expected to increase over time. This study aimed to update our needs-based workforce planning model to ensure appropriate staffing levels in the future., Methods and Materials: The supply of radiation oncologists, by age group, sex, and full-time equivalent status, was projected from 2020 to 2040 using a recursive-aging, input-output model developed with seeding parameters derived from national sources. The demand for radiation oncologists until 2040 was estimated using referral patterns for radiation therapy and consultation workload metrics applied to projected annual cancer incident cases to calculate required full-time equivalent positions. Baseline model parameters were also applied to the 2005-2019 workforce and incident case data to evaluate preprojection supply and demand trends., Results: Preprojection trends for 2005 to 2019 revealed accelerated staffing growth that transitioned from a workforce shortage to a surplus state in 2014 followed by substantial growth slowdown in 2016. The model predicts a transient surplus of radiation oncologists until 2026 followed by a projected deficit in subsequent years. Sensitivity analyses using the plausible range for each parameter continued to favor an undersupply, suggesting a trainee shortage unable to meet workforce expansion needs. Considering possible future declining trends in radiotherapy utilization and workload, calculations to inform corrective efforts in resident numbers resulted in 25 entry positions per year, up from 21 per year currently. Geographic distribution of trainees, relative to workforce and cancer incidence distributions, could be improved with more residency positions in Canadian regions outside Ontario., Conclusions: Demand for radiation therapy and radiation oncologists in Canada are expected to grow more quickly than future expansion in staffing levels. Our workforce planning model provides evidence for more trainee requirements to inform stakeholders of possible corrective actions to training programs and recruitment. Further research is needed to explore additional strategies to expand capacity and high-quality delivery of radiation therapy to meet the foreseeable increase in Canadian patients with cancer., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Context: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for a well-trained public health workforce prior to the public health crisis. Public health training centers regularly assess workforce needs and their pre-pandemic data play vital roles in guiding public health workforce development beyond the crisis., Program: In 2019, Oklahoma partners of the Region 6 South Central Public Health Training Center (R6SCPHTC) co-conducted an online survey of the public health workforce located in the Health Resources & Services Administration Region 6., Implementation: Between March and April, the R6SCPHTC collected 503 surveys, including 201 surveys from Oklahoma. Questions inquired about demographic and workforce characteristics, work contexts, training needs and interests, training access and logistics, and knowledge of R6SCPHTC online resources., Evaluation: Key findings included that two-thirds of the pre-pandemic Oklahoma public health workforce consisted of employees age 40 or older with few holding public health or medical degrees. The majority of respondents worked for health departments and Tribes, and almost half were frontline workers. Although at least half of the participants interested in training on public health activities and topics were familiar with them, confidence in their abilities related to these activities and topics was expressed by less than half. Qualitative data provided details on training needs addressed quantitatively and described new training areas. Survey participants expressed interest in diverse training delivery methods and technological devices. Most respondents were not familiar with the free trainings available through the R6SCPHTC., Discussion: Similar to the regional and national public health workforce, Oklahoma's workforce needed training and support already before COVID-19. Time and resources need to be invested into the current and future workforce. While addressing priority public health skills and topics remains important, training on current and emerging topics is needed. Providing accessible trainings with expanded content will prepare Oklahoma's public health workforce for the future., Competing Interests: The authors have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: There is a large global deficit of anesthesia providers. In 2016, the World Federation of Societies of Anaesthesiologists (WFSA) conducted a survey to count the number of anesthesia providers worldwide. Much work has taken place since then to strengthen the anesthesia health workforce. This study updates the global count of anesthesia providers., Methods: Between 2021 and 2023, an electronic survey was sent to national professional societies of physician anesthesia providers (PAPs), nurse anesthetists, and other nonphysician anesthesia providers (NPAPs). Data included number of providers and trainees, proportion of females, and limited intensive care unit (ICU) capacity data. Descriptive statistics were calculated by country, World Bank income group, and World Health Organization (WHO) region. Provider density is reported as the number of providers per 100,000 population., Results: Responses were obtained for 172 of 193 United Nations (UN) member countries. The global provider density was 8.8 (PAP 6.6 NPAP 2.3). Seventy-six countries had a PAP density <5, whereas 66 countries had a total provider density <5. PAP density increased everywhere except for high- and low-income countries and the African region., Conclusions: The overall size of the global anesthesia workforce has increased over time, although some countries have experienced a decrease. Population growth and differences in which provider types that are counted can have an important impact on provider density. More work is needed to define appropriate metrics for measuring changes in density, to describe anesthesia cadres, and to improve workforce data collection processes. Effort to scale up anesthesia provider training must urgently continue., Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest: See Disclosures at the end of the article., (Copyright © 2024 International Anesthesia Research Society.)

Objective: To explore how changes in planned retirement age, practice setting, and physician productivity may impact the workforce shortage in urology., Methods: We compared data between the 2015 and 2022 American Urological Association census, a specialty-wide annual survey which collects data on demographics, practice patterns, and procedures from a representative sample of U.S. urologists. Workforce productivity was measured by the self-reported number of hours worked per week and patients seen per week. A novel formula was developed to demonstrate how planned retirement age and productivity impact the workforce's production capacity., Results: The total number of practicing urologists increased during the period from 2015 to 2022 (11,990 to 13,976), while the mean age of practicing urologists decreased slightly (55.0 to 54.5years; P < .002). During this period, the mean planned age of retirement for all urologists decreased from 68.9years to 67.7 (P < .001). Urologists in solo practice had a significantly higher planned age of retirement at 71.9years (P < .001) as compared to all other practice models. The number of patients seen per week for all urologists decreased from 78.7 to 72.9 (P < .001). The amount of hours worked per week remained relatively constant between the study periods. The maximum possible number of patients seen by the workforce prior to retirement increased by only 2.4% during the study interval., Conclusion: Though the U.S. urology workforce is growing and the mean age is decreasing, decreases in planned retirement age and productivity may offset these gains and intensify the physician shortage for U.S. urologists., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors have no conflict of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Although the promise of radionuclides for the diagnosis and treatment of disease was recognised soon after the discovery of radioactivity in the late 19th century, the systematic use of radionuclides in medicine only gradually increased over the subsequent hundred years. The past two decades, however, has seen a remarkable surge in the clinical application of diagnostic and therapeutic radiopharmaceuticals, particularly in oncology. This development is an exciting time for the use of theranostics in oncology, but the rapid growth of this area of nuclear medicine has created challenges as well. In particular, the infrastructure for the manufacturing and distribution of radiopharmaceuticals remains in development, and regulatory bodies are still optimising guidelines for this new class of drug. One issue of paramount importance for achieving equitable access to theranostics is building a sufficiently trained workforce in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. Here, we discuss the key challenges and opportunities that face the field as it seeks to build its workforce for the 21st century., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests Outside the submitted work: AMS reports trial funding from EMD Serono, ITM, Telix Pharmaceuticals, AVID Radiopharmaceuticals, Fusion Pharmaceuticals, and Cyclotek; research funding from Medimmune, AVID Radiopharmaceuticals, Adalta, Antengene, Humanigen, Telix Pharmaceuticals, and Theramyc; and payment for participation in advisory boards of Imagion and Immunos. BMZ reports research funding from Evergreen Theragnostics, equity in Summit Biomedical Imaging, and has licensed technologies to Clarity Pharmaceuticals. SEL reports research support from Navidea Biopharmaceuticals, Fusion Pharmaceuticals, Cytosite Biopharma, Viewpoint Molecular Targeting, and Genzyme Corporation, and has acted as an advisor for NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes and Trevarx biomedical. PJHS reports research support from Bristol Myers Squibb, Telix Pharmaceuticals, and Radionetics Oncology; has acted as an adviser to Synfast Consulting and Telix Pharmaceuticals; and holds equity in Bristol Myers Squibb, Telix Pharmaceuticals, and Novartis. ADW reports their role as Editor-in-Chief of Nuclear Medicine and Biology. JSL reports research support from Clarity Pharmaceuticals and Avid Radiopharmaceuticals; has acted as an adviser of Alpha-9 Theranostics, Clarity Pharmaceuticals, Earli, Evergreen Theragnostics, Inhibrix, Precirix, and Telix Pharmaceuticals; is a co-inventor on technologies licensed to Diaprost, Elucida Oncology, Theragnostics, CheMatech, Clarity Pharmaceuticals, and Samus Therapeutics; is the co-founder of pHLIP; and holds equity in Summit Biomedical Imaging, Telix Pharmaceuticals, Clarity Pharmaceuticals, and Evergreen Theragnostics. AMS is supported by National Health and Medical Research Council grant number 1177837. SEL is supported by the Department of Energy as part of the DOE University Isotope Network, under grant DESC0021269. PJHS is supported by grant R01 EB021155. JSL is supported by National Institutes of Health grant R35 CA232130. MA-W, AJ, AK, PK, SV, STL, SKL, DP, JZ, JLU, and FG report no competing interests. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.)

Background: There has been a growing imbalance between supply of dermatologists and demand for dermatologic care. To best address physician shortages, it is important to delineate supply and demand patterns in the dermatologic workforce. The goal of this study was to explore dermatology supply and demand over time., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of workforce supply and demand projections for dermatologists from 2021 to 2036 using data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis. Estimates for total workforce supply and demand were summarized in aggregate and stratified by rurality. Scenarios with status quo demand and improved access were considered., Results: Projected total supply showed a 12.45% increase by 2036. Total demand increased 12.70% by 2036 in the status quo scenario. In the improved access scenario, total supply was inadequate for total demand in any year, lagging by 28% in 2036. Metropolitan areas demonstrated a relative supply surplus up to 2036; nonmetropolitan areas had at least a 157% excess in demand throughout the study period. In 2021 adequacy was 108% and 39% adequacy for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, respectively; these differences were projected to continue through 2036., Conclusions: The findings suggest that the dermatology physician workforce is inadequate to meet the demand for dermatologic services in nonmetropolitan areas. Furthermore, improved access to dermatologic care would bolster demand and especially exacerbate workforce inadequacy in nonmetropolitan areas. Continued efforts are needed to address health inequities and ensure access to quality dermatologic care for all., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Objective: This research aimed to identify the fundamental and geographic characteristics of the primary healthcare personnel mobility in Nanning from 2000 to 2021 and clarify the determinants that affect their transition to non-primary healthcare institutions., Methods: Through utilizing the Primary Healthcare Personnel Database (PHPD) for 2000-2021, the study conducts descriptive statistical analysis on demographic, economic, and professional aspects of healthcare personnel mobility across healthcare reform phases. Geographic Information Systems (QGIS) were used to map mobility patterns, and R software was employed to calculate spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I). Logistic regression identified factors that influenced the transition to non-primary institutions., Results: Primary healthcare personnel mobility is divided into four phases: initial (2000-2008), turning point (2009-2011), rapid development (2012-2020), and decline (2021). The rapid development stage saw increased mobility with no spatial clustering in inflow and outflow. From 2016 to 2020, primary healthcare worker mobility reached its peak, in which the most significant movement occurred between township health centers and other institutions. Aside from their transition to primary medical institutions, the primary movement of grassroots health personnel predominantly directs towards secondary general hospitals, tertiary general hospitals, and secondary specialized hospitals. Since 2012, the number and mobility distance of primary healthcare workers have become noticeably larger and remained at a higher level from 2016 to 2020. The main migration of primary healthcare personnel occurred in their districts (counties). Key transition factors include gender, education, ethnicity, professional category, general practice registration, and administrative division., Conclusions: This study provides evidence of the features of primary healthcare personnel mobility in the less developed western regions of China, in which Nanning was taken as a case study. It uncovers the factors that impact the flow of primary healthcare personnel to non-primary healthcare institutions. These findings are helpful to policy refinement and support the retention of primary healthcare workers., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objective: There has been a modest but progressive increase in the neurosurgical workforce, training, and service delivery in Nigeria in the last 2 decades. However, these resources are unevenly distributed. This study aimed to quantitatively assess the availability and distribution of neurosurgical resources in Nigeria while projecting the needed workforce capacity up to 2050., Methods: An online survey of Nigerian neurosurgeons and residents assessed the country's neurosurgical infrastructure, workforce, and resources. The results were analyzed descriptively, and geospatial analysis was used to map their distribution. A projection model was fitted to predict workforce targets for 2022-2050., Results: Out of 86 neurosurgery-capable health facilities, 65.1% were public hospitals, with only 17.4% accredited for residency training. Dedicated hospital beds and operating rooms for neurosurgery make up only 4.0% and 15.4% of the total, respectively. The population disease burden is estimated at 50.2 per 100,000, while the operative coverage was 153.2 cases per neurosurgeon. There are currently 132 neurosurgeons and 114 neurosurgery residents for a population of 218 million (ratio 1:1.65 million). There is an annual growth rate of 8.3%, resulting in a projected deficit of 1113 neurosurgeons by 2030 and 1104 by 2050. Timely access to neurosurgical care ranges from 21.6% to 86.7% of the population within different timeframes., Conclusions: Collaborative interventions are needed to address gaps in Nigeria's neurosurgical capacity. Investments in training, infrastructure, and funding are necessary for sustainable development and optimized outcomes., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To project the proportion of the urology workforce that is from under-represented in medicine (URiM) groups between 2021-2061., Methods: Demographic data were obtained from AUA Census and ACGME Data Resource Books. The number of graduating urology residents and proportion of URiM graduating residents were characterized with linear models. Stock and Flow models were used to project future population numbers and proportions of URiM practicing urologists, contingent on assumptions regarding trainee demographics, retirement trends, and growth in the field., Results: Currently, there is an increase in the percentage of URiM graduates by 0.145% per year. If historical trends continue, URiM urologists will likely comprise 16.2% of urology residency graduates and 13.3% of the practicing urological workforce in 2061. These percentages would constitute an underrepresentation of URiM urologists relative to the projected 44.2% of the U.S. population who would identify as American Indian/Alaskan Native, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander by 2060. 1 An increase in the percentage of URiM graduates by 0.845% per year would result in 44.2% URiM urology residency graduates and 26.1% URiM practicing urologists by 2061. An interactive app was designed to allow for a range of assumptions to be explored and for future data to be incorporated., Conclusion: URiM physician representation within urology over the next 40years will remain disproportionately low compared to that of the projected share of people of color in the general U.S., Population: In order to achieve the AUA's Diversity, Equity and Inclusion goals, a concerted effort to implement interventions to recruit, train, and retain a generation of racially diverse urologists appears necessary., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors have no conflict of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: There are many reasons why orthopaedic surgeons move or change careers. We asked the questions: (1) What is the geographic distribution of orthopaedic surgeons with respect to age, sex, and race and ethnicity? (2) How has our workforce changed over time with regard to these factors? (3) Are there any patterns or trends detected regarding policy or regulatory events that coincide with these differences?, Methods: The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons surveys over 30,000 members, collecting data on demographics, age, race sex, and practice statistics. We calculated geographic distributions and evaluated these differences over time-potential influences from malpractice suits or tort reform were investigated., Results: Overall surgeon density increased over time. The largest negative changes were noted in District of Columbia, Wyoming, and North Dakota and positive changes in Colorado, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Age across all states increased (mean 1.7 years). Number of female surgeons increased in most states (4.6% to 5.7%). Number of  African Americans increased from 1.6% to 1.8%, Hispanic/LatinX from 1.8% to 2.2%, Asian from 5.5% to 6.7%, and multiracial from 0.8% to 1.2%. No change was noted in the percentage of Native American surgeons., Discussion: Surgeon density increased from 2012 to 2018; the cause for this change was not evident. Small increases in surgeon population, female surgeons, and in some underrepresented minorities were seen., Competing Interests: Each author certifies that he or she has no commercial associations (eg, consultancies, stock ownership, equity interest, patent/licensing arrangements, etc.) that might pose a conflict of interest in connection with the submitted article., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons.)

Introduction: There is a long standing and worsening shortage of psychiatrists in Australia particularly in rural areas. The majority of psychiatrists work in major cities., Objective: To identify recent trends in the Australian rural psychiatrist workforce compared with the metropolitan workforce., Design: We descriptively analysed population-level data from the National Health Workforce Data Set (NHWDS), the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). A descriptive analysis of the numbers (count) and gender of psychiatrists from 1995 to 2022 working in Australia was conducted. For the period 2013 to 2022, we analysed for rurality, gender, years' experience, hours worked, Medicare-subsidised services provided and proportions of Specialist International Medical Graduates (SIMG) by sex, with a focus on the rural workforce. For international comparison, psychiatrist numbers were obtained for other OECD countries. The number of psychiatrists working in Australia, as per NHWDS and AIHW, was quantified. We analysed trends in demographics, hours worked and rurality of psychiatrists working in Australia in a serial cross-sectional design., Findings: Most psychiatrists are maldistributed to major cities, while outer regional and remote areas have few resident psychiatrists. Outer regional New South Wales (NSW) and South Australia (SA) have the lowest numbers of psychiatrists per capita. The full-time equivalent (FTE) of psychiatrists per 100 000 has increased from 12.6 in 2000 to 15.2 in 2022. However, the average hours worked by psychiatrists has declined. In total, available psychiatrist hours worked per 100 000 population has increased by 6.1% since the beginning of the millennium., Discussion: Rural areas in NSW and SA have the greatest shortage of psychiatrists. Specialist International Medical Graduates and females (43% of the overall workforce) are the predominant workforce in rural areas. Although Medicare-subsidised services per 1000 people have increased in rural areas, they remain lower than for those living in major cities., Conclusion: There remains an acute shortage of psychiatrists in many regional and remote areas of Australia, with an increasing proportion of SIMGs and females working in these areas, in the context of future increased demand., (© 2024 The Authors. Australian Journal of Rural Health published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of National Rural Health Alliance Ltd.)

Background: Many countries faced health workforce challenges even before the pandemic, such as impending retirements, negative population growth, or sub-optimal allocation of resources across health sectors. Current quantitative models are often of limited use, either because they require extensive individual-level data to be properly calibrated, or (in the absence of such data) because they are too simplistic to capture important demographic changes or disruptive epidemiological shocks such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic., Methods: We propose a population-dynamic and stock-flow-consistent approach to physician supply forecasting that is complex enough to account for dynamically changing behaviour, while requiring only publicly available time-series data for full calibration. We demonstrate the utility of this model by applying it to 21 European countries to forecast the supply of generalist and specialist physicians to 2040, and the impact of increased healthcare utilisation due to COVID-19 on this supply., Results: Compared with the workforce needed to maintain physician density at 2019 levels, we find that in many countries there is indeed a significant trend towards decreasing generalist density at the expense of increasing specialist density. The trends for specialists are exacerbated by expectations of negative population growth in many Southern and Eastern European countries. Compared to the expected demographic changes in the population and the health workforce, we expect a limited impact of COVID-19 on these trends, even under conservative modelling assumptions. Finally, we generalise the approach to a multi-professional, multi-regional and multi-sectoral model for Austria, where we find an additional suboptimal distribution in the supply of contracted versus non-contracted (private) physicians., Conclusion: It is therefore vital to develop tools for decision-makers to influence the allocation and supply of doctors across specialties and sectors to address these imbalances., (© 2024 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: AMR is deputy director of NIHR Health and Social Care Workforce Policy Research Unit, King’s College, London. AH none declared.

Background: To describe the growth and characteristics of the direct care health workforce, encompassing home health aides, personal care aides, nursing assistants, and orderlies and psychiatric aides from 2010 to 2019 in the United States., Methods: Using nationally representative data from the 2010 to 2019 American Community Survey, we described the growth in the direct care health workforce overall and by type of direct care health worker. In addition, we examined the distribution of direct care workers by geographic region of the country, age categories, citizenship, world area of birth, income, health insurance status, and other characteristics., Results: From 2010 to 2019, the number of direct care health workers in the United States per 10,000 individuals decreased slightly from 135.81 in 2010 to 133.78 in 2019. Personal care aides made up 42.1% of the direct care health workforce in 2019, followed by nursing assistants (39.5%) and home health aides (16.3%). In 2019, the number of direct care health workers who were not U.S. citizens accounted for roughly 10% of all workers in each year. The relative percentage of direct care health workers that were not a citizen of the United States was highest among home health aides (16.3%). Among workers born outside of the United States, the majority were from Latin America, followed by Asia., Conclusion: From 2010 to 2019, there was little growth in the direct care health workforce despite growing demand for direct care health workers. In the midst of the current and projected shortage of direct care health workers-particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, longer-term solutions to improve retention of direct care health workers and increase the supply of direct care health workers may be needed., (© 2021 The American Geriatrics Society.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: none declared

Competing Interests: We declare no competing interests.

Competing Interests: Competing interests: none declared

Importance: Projections to 2035 have demonstrated concern regarding a worsening urology workforce shortage., Objective: To project the size and demographic characteristics of the urology workforce per capita into 2060 and to anticipate the timing and degree of the impending urology workforce shortage., Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cross-sectional study used the 2019 American Urological Association Annual Census data and the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education's Data Resource Book from 2007 to 2018. The cohort included practicing urologists in 2019. US Census data were used to approximate the projected US population. Data analysis was performed from June 2020 to March 2021., Exposures: Continued growth stock and flow model of 13.8% and stagnant growth model of 0% increase of the incoming urology workforce with cohort projection per projected US population., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was urology workforce projection per the population aged 65 years and older. Urology workforce projections per capita and demographic characteristics of the urology workforce up to 2060 were calculated under guided assumptions with 2 stock and flow models., Results: In 2019, there were 13 044 urologists (11 758 men [90.1.%]; 1286 women [9.9%]; median age range, 55-59 years), with 3.99 urologists per 100 000 persons and 311 new urologists entering the workforce. In a continued growth model, 2030 will have the lowest number of urologists per capita of 3.3 urologists per 100 000 persons, and recovery to baseline will occur by 2050. There are 23.8 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older in 2020, which decreases to 15.8 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older in 2035 and never recovers to its baseline level by 2060. In a stagnant growth model, there will be a continued decrease of urologists per capita to 3.1 urologists per 100 000 persons by 2060. There is a continued decrease in per capita urologists at each time point, with 13.1 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older by 2060., Conclusions and Relevance: With the impending urology workforce shortage, there will be an exaggerated shortage of total urologists per persons aged 65 years and older in both models. This projection highlights the need for structural changes and advocacy to maximize the available urology workforce.

Competing Interests: Competing interests: none declared.

Objective: To objectively determine the percentage of female trainees and consultants who are interested in their career being focussed on female urology (FU) in order to facilitate the improved planning for the future of this sub-specialty., Subjects and Methods: This was an international cross-sectional study spanning 1 year, from December 2018 to December 2019. An anonymous, voluntary survey was generated using the online survey generator Survey monkey ® . The survey was sent to urology consultants and trainees who were female from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada., Results: The total response rate to the survey was 61%. Up to 50% of female consultants and trainees selected a career in FU due to their gender, but up to 75% of respondents were also interested in FU of their own accord. Common concerns held by a majority of respondents included both the medical community's and the public's lack of awareness of FU as a component of urological expertise. Despite these concerns, most of the trainees were not concerned regarding their future work opportunities in FU, and many had intentions to pursue a fellowship in FU., Conclusion: Female urology is an increasingly popular sub-specialisation of urology, given the steady increase in the intake of female trainees. Similar trends were identified internationally. Urology training in this area will need to continue to increase the community's and the primary health care referrer's awareness in order to ensure the continued success and growth of the sub-specialty., (© 2021 The Authors. BJU International © 2021 BJU International.)

Objective: The aim of the study was to describe the current physiatrist workforce in the United States., Design: An online, cross-sectional survey of board-certified physiatrists in 2019 (N = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographic and practice characteristics, including age, sex, practice area, practice setting, hours worked, patient characteristics, staffing, and work responsibilities. Physiatrists were stratified by substantive practice patterns using a cluster analysis approach. Survey responses were arrayed across the practice patterns and differences noted., Results: The practice patterns identified included musculoskeletal/pain medicine, general/neurological rehabilitation, academic practice, pediatric rehabilitation, orthopedic/complex conditions rehabilitation, and disability/occupational rehabilitation. Many differences were observed across these practice patterns. Notably, primary practice setting and the extent and ways in which other healthcare staff are used in physiatry practices differed across practice patterns. Physiatrists working in musculoskeletal/pain medicine and disability/occupational rehabilitation were least likely to work with nurse practitioners and physician assistants. Physiatrists working in academic practice, general/neurological rehabilitation, and pediatric rehabilitation were most likely to have primary practice settings in hospitals., Conclusions: Physiatry is an evolving medical specialty affected by many of the same trends as other medical specialties. The results of this survey can inform policy discussions and further research on the effects of these trends on physiatrists and physiatry practice in the future., (Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To characterize national trends in urologist workforce, practice organization, and management of incident prostate cancer., Methods: Using Medicare claims data from 2010 to 2016, we identified all urologists billing Medicare and the practice with which they were affiliated. We characterized groups as solo, small single specialty, large single specialty, multispecialty, specialist, or hospital-owned practices. Using a 20% sample of national Medicare claims, we identified all patients with incident prostate cancer and identified their primary treatment., Results: The number of urologists increased from 9,305 in 2010 to 9,570 in 2016 (P = .03), while the number of practices decreased from 3,588 to 2,861 (P < .001). The proportion of urologists in multispecialty groups increased from 17.1% in 2010 to 28.2% in 2016, while those within solo practices declined from 26.2% to only 15.8% over the same time period. A higher proportion of patients at hospital-owned practices were treated with observation (P < .001) and surgery (P < .001), while a higher proportion of patients at large single specialty practices were treated with radiation therapy (P < .001)., Conclusion: We characterized shifts in urologist membership from smaller, independent groups to larger, multispecialty or hospital-owned practices. This trend coincides with higher utilization of observation and surgical treatment for prostate cancer., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the current and future adequacy of physiatrist supply in the United States., Design: A 2019 online survey of board-certified physiatrists (n = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographics, practice characteristics, hours worked, and retirement intentions. Microsimulation models projected future physiatrist supply and demand using data from the American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, national and state population projections, American Community Survey, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and other sources., Results: Approximately 37% of 8853 active physiatrists indicate that their workload exceeds capacity, 59% indicate that workload is at capacity, and 4% indicate under capacity. These findings suggest a national shortfall of 940 (10.6%) physiatrists in 2017, with substantial geographic variation in supply adequacy. Projected growth in physiatrist supply from 2017 to 2030 approximately equals demand growth (2250 vs. 2390), suggesting that without changes in care delivery, the shortfall of physiatrists will persist, with a 1080 (9.7%) physiatrist shortfall in 2030., Conclusion: Without an increase in physiatry residency positions, the current national shortfall of physiatrists is projected to persist. Although a projected increase in physiatrists' use of advanced practice providers may help preserve access to comprehensive physiatry care, it is not expected to eliminate the shortfall., (Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Rapid response systems (RRSs) improve patients' safety, but the role of dedicated doctors within these systems remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate patient survival rates and differences in types of interventions performed depending on the presence of dedicated doctors in the RRS., Methods: Patients managed by the RRSs of 9 centers in South Korea from January 1, 2016, through December 31, 2017, were included retrospectively. We used propensity score-matched analysis to balance patients according to the presence of dedicated doctors in the RRS. The primary outcome was in-hospital survival. The secondary outcomes were the incidence of interventions performed. A sensitivity analysis was performed with the subgroup of patients diagnosed with sepsis or septic shock., Results: After propensity score matching, 2981 patients were included per group according to the presence of dedicated doctors in the RRS. The presence of the dedicated doctors was not associated with patients' overall likelihood of survival (hazard ratio for death 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93‒1.20). Interventions, such as arterial line insertion (odds ratio [OR] 25.33, 95% CI 15.12‒42.44) and kidney replacement therapy (OR 10.77, 95% CI 6.10‒19.01), were more commonly performed for patients detected using RRS with dedicated doctors. The presence of dedicated doctors in the RRS was associated with better survival of patients with sepsis or septic shock (hazard ratio for death 0.62, 95% CI 0.39‒0.98) and lower intensive care unit admission rates (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.37‒0.75)., Conclusions: The presence of dedicated doctors within the RRS was not associated with better survival in the overall population but with better survival and lower intensive care unit admission rates for patients with sepsis or septic shock., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

The future of the pediatric workforce has been the subject of significant dialogue in the pediatric community and generated much discussion in the academic literature. There are significant concerns regarding the ability of pediatricians to meet the growing demands of our pediatric population. Over the past 5 years, there has been a decline in the percentage of doctor of osteopathic medicine students who pursue a career in pediatrics but an equally important increase in the number of pediatric positions that are filled by doctor of osteopathic medicine students and international medical graduates. Although there has been an increase in the number of pediatric positions offered in the National Resident Matching Program, the last 4 years have seen a significant increase in the number of unfilled pediatric positions. A number of pediatric subspecialties struggle to fill their training positions, and those with low match rates may have 20% to 40% fewer applicants than positions. The pediatric vision for the future must include a commitment to a comprehensive strategic planning process with the many organizations involved across the multiple stages of the educational continuum. It is time to elucidate and address the questions raised by the workforce data. Developing solutions to these questions will require a careful planning process and a thoughtful analysis of the pediatric workforce data. Establishing this as an important priority will require a major collaborative effort between pediatric academic and professional organizations, but the future benefit to the nation's children will be significant., Competing Interests: POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST: The author has indicated he has no potential conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2021 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.)

Objective: To project the size and demographics of the female urology workforce into 2060., Methods: We assessed current urology workforce estimates using 2019 American Urological Association Annual Census data. We used the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education's Data Resource Book from 2007 to 2018 to determine the incoming urology workforce. With these inputs, we calculated urologic workforce projections using two stock and flow models., Results: In our continued growth model, the total number of urologists will be lowest in 2025 with 11,600 urologists and recover to baseline by 2040 with 13,377 urologists. The total number of female urologists will grow 3.77-fold from 2020 to 2060 with an absolute increase of 3,792 urologists. Comparatively, the total number of male urologists will grow 1.33-fold with an absolute increase of 3,996 urologists. In our stagnant growth model, the total number of urologists will be lowest in 2030 with 11,354 urologists and will not recover to baseline by the end of our projection. The total number of female urologists will grow 2.18-fold from 2020 to 2060 with an absolute increase of 1,615 urologists. Comparatively, the total number of male urologists will decrease by 21.5% with an absolute decrease of 2,579 urologists., Conclusion: In the context of the impending urologic workforce shortage, female urologists make up a significant proportion of the workforce growth over the next four decades in both the continued growth and growth stagnant models. This projection highlights the need for purposeful recruitment, structural changes, and advocacy among urology leadership to support female urologists., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Clinician expertise has been associated with improved patient outcomes, yet ED clinicians often work in various clinical settings beyond the ED and, therefore, may risk expertise by having less clinical focus. We sought to describe clinical focus among the emergency care workforce nationally., Methods: Using the 2017 Medicare Public Use Files (PUF), we performed a cross-sectional analysis of clinicians receiving reimbursement for emergency care Evaluation & Management (E/M) services from Medicare fee-for-service Part B. Clinicians were categorized by type as EM physicians, non-EM physicians, and advanced practice providers (APPs). The primary outcome was the clinical focus of the individual clinician, defined as the proportion of E/M services within the ED setting relative to a clinician's total E/M services across all practice settings., Results: Of 65,710 unique clinicians providing care to Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries in the ED setting, 39,016 (59.4%) were classified as EM physicians, 8123 (12.4%) as non-EM physicians, and 18,571 (28.5%) as APPs. The individual clinician median focus was 92.8% (interquartile range [IQR]: 87.0, 100.0) for EM physicians, 45.2% (IQR: 5.1, 97.0) for non-EM physicians, and 100.0% (IQR: 96.3, 100.0) for APPs., Conclusion: EM physicians have twice as much clinical focus in comparison to non-EM physicians providing emergency care to Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. These findings underscore the importance of diverse training and certification programs to ensure access to clinically focused ED clinicians., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Due to low care utilization, a complex intervention was done for two years to optimize the Ethiopian Health Extension Program. Improved quality of the integrated community case management services was an intermediate outcome of this intervention through community education and mobilization, capacity building of health workers, and strengthening of district ownership and accountability of sick child services. We evaluated the association between the intervention and the health extension workers' ability to correctly classify common childhood illnesses in four regions of Ethiopia., Methods: Baseline and endline assessments were done in 2016 and 2018 in intervention and comparison areas in four regions of Ethiopia. Ill children aged 2 to 59 months were mobilized to visit health posts for an assessment that was followed by re-examination. We analyzed sensitivity, specificity, and difference-in-difference of correct classification with multilevel mixed logistic regression in intervention and comparison areas at baseline and endline., Results: Health extensions workers' consultations with ill children were observed in intervention (n = 710) and comparison areas (n = 615). At baseline, re-examination of the children showed that in intervention areas, health extension workers' sensitivity for fever or malaria was 54%, 68% for respiratory infections, 90% for diarrheal diseases, and 34% for malnutrition. At endline, it was 40% for fever or malaria, 49% for respiratory infections, 85% for diarrheal diseases, and 48% for malnutrition. Specificity was higher (89-100%) for all childhood illnesses. Difference-in-differences was 6% for correct classification of fever or malaria [aOR = 1.45 95% CI: 0.81-2.60], 4% for respiratory tract infection [aOR = 1.49 95% CI: 0.81-2.74], and 5% for diarrheal diseases [aOR = 1.74 95% CI: 0.77-3.92]., Conclusion: This study revealed that the Optimization of Health Extension Program intervention, which included training, supportive supervision, and performance reviews of health extension workers, was not associated with an improved classification of childhood illnesses by these Ethiopian primary health care workers., Trial Registration: ISRCTN12040912, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN12040912., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The health workforce has been greatly affected by COVID-19. In this commentary, we describe the articles included in this health workforce research supplement and how the issues raised by the authors relate to the COVID-19 pandemic and rapidly changing health care environment.

Background: The growing demand for cancer surgery has placed a global strain on health systems. In-depth analyses of the global demand for cancer surgery and optimal workforce requirements are needed to plan service provision. We estimated the global demand for cancer surgery and the requirements for an optimal surgical and anaesthesia workforce, using benchmarks based on clinical guidelines., Methods: Using models of benchmark surgical use based on clinical guidelines, we estimated the proportion of cancer cases with an indication for surgery across 183 countries, stratified by income group. These proportions were multiplied by age-adjusted national estimates of new cancer cases using GLOBOCAN 2018 data and then aggregated to obtain the estimated number of surgical procedures required globally. The numbers of cancer surgical procedures in 44 high-income countries were divided by the actual number of surgeons and anaesthetists in the respective countries to calculate cancer procedures per surgeon and anaesthetist ratios. Using the median (IQR) of these ratios as benchmarks, we developed a three-tiered optimal surgical and anaesthesia workforce matrix, and the predictions were extrapolated up to 2040., Findings: Our model estimates that the number of cancer cases globally with an indication for surgery will increase by 5 million procedures (52%) between 2018 (9 065 000) and 2040 (13 821 000). The greatest relative increase in surgical demand will occur in 34 low-income countries, where we also observed the largest gaps in workforce requirements. To match the median benchmark for high-income countries, the surgical workforce in these countries would need to increase by almost four times and the anaesthesia workforce by nearly 5·5 times. The greatest increase in optimal workforce requirements from 2018 to 2040 will occur in low-income countries (from 28 000 surgeons to 58 000 surgeons; 107% increase), followed by lower-middle-income countries (from 166 000 surgeons to 277 000 surgeons; 67% increase)., Interpretation: The global demand for cancer surgery and the optimal workforce are predicted to increase over the next two decades and disproportionately affect low-income countries. These estimates provide an appropriate framework for planning the provision of surgical services for cancer worldwide., Funding: University of New South Wales Scientia Scholarship and UK Research and Innovation Global Challenges Research Fund., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)