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The coronavirus pandemic has raised concerns about the emergence of other viral infections, such as monkeypox, which has become a significant hazard to public health. Thus, this work proposes a novel time series ensemble technique for analyzing and forecasting the spread of monkeypox in the four highly infected countries with the monkeypox virus. This approach involved processing the first cumulative confirmed case time series to address variance stabilization, normalization, stationarity, and a nonlinear secular trend component. After that, five single time series models and three proposed ensemble models are used to estimate the filtered confirmed case time series. The accuracy of the models is evaluated using typical accuracy mean errors, graphical evaluation, and an equal forecasting accuracy statistical test. Based on the results, it is found that the proposed time series ensemble forecasting approach is an efficient and accurate way to forecast the cumulative confirmed cases for the top four countries in the world and the entire world. Using the best ensemble model, a forecast is made for the next 28 days (four weeks), which will help understand the spread of the disease and the associated risks. This information can prevent further spread and enable timely and effective treatment. Furthermore, the developed novel time series ensemble approach can be used to forecast other diseases in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, health statistics were used primarily as a source of information for the study of some mortality phenomena in Austrian Silesia at the turn of the 20th century. The period is determined by the preservation of the sources, as these are statistics stored in the Provincial Archives in Opava, i.e., the original written sources compiled by the district doctors. These sources made it possible to track the numbers of births and deaths in the individual political districts and statutory towns in Austrian Silesia. In the birth statistics, the share of children born with qualified obstetric assistance was examined. In the death statistics, the composition of deaths by age and cause of death was monitored. Additionally, the seasonal distribution of these phenomena was also examined to the extent permitted by the data sources. At the beginning of the study, a thorough check of the credibility of the sources, i.e., health statistics, was conducted by comparing them with the health reports and data from Österreichische Statistik. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus pandemic has raised concerns about the emergence of other viral infections, such as monkeypox, which has become a significant hazard to public health. Thus, this work proposes a novel time series ensemble technique for analyzing and forecasting the spread of monkeypox in the four highly infected countries with the monkeypox virus. This approach involved processing the first cumulative confirmed case time series to address variance stabilization, normalization, stationarity, and a nonlinear secular trend component. After that, five single time series models and three proposed ensemble models are used to estimate the filtered confirmed case time series. The accuracy of the models is evaluated using typical accuracy mean errors, graphical evaluation, and an equal forecasting accuracy statistical test. Based on the results, it is found that the proposed time series ensemble forecasting approach is an efficient and accurate way to forecast the cumulative confirmed cases for the top four countries in the world and the entire world. Using the best ensemble model, a forecast is made for the next 28 days (four weeks), which will help understand the spread of the disease and the associated risks. This information can prevent further spread and enable timely and effective treatment. Furthermore, the developed novel time series ensemble approach can be used to forecast other diseases in the future.

Copyright of Collegium Antropologicum is the property of Croatian Anthropological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Objective: To determine the influence of two representative metrics of epidemiological risk, changes in new infections, and disease prevalence, on people's risk judgments and disease-prevention behaviors. Method: Four experiments were conducted from August 2020 to May 2021. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants were exposed to information about different directions of change (upward and downward) and varying levels of prevalence of an infectious disease. In Experiments 3 and 4, participants were exposed to information about only one direction of change (upward or downward) and varying levels of prevalence. Participants reported risk judgments and intentions to engage in disease-prevention behaviors for each disease situation presented to them. Results: When both the direction of change and levels of prevalence varied, risk judgments and intentions were more influenced by change (vs. prevalence) information. Participants' reliance on prevalence information to guide risk judgments increased when they were presented with only an upward or downward change, particularly for situations with worsening infections. In all cases, the effects of epidemiological information on behavioral intentions were mediated by its effects on risk judgments. Conclusions: Information about changes in infections consistently influences people's risk judgments and drive subsequent behavioral response. The impact of prevalence information, however, is limited to situations in which changes in infections are stable, such that it affects risk judgments and behavior decisions only when changes in infections demonstrate a constant upward or downward direction. The results point to the need for public health interventions to increase the impact of prevalence information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Musculoskeletal disorders are a key cause of morbidity in elderly people. How musculoskeletal disorders relate to healthy life expectancy remain elusive. Hence, we aimed to estimate gains in healthy life expectancy from the elimination of musculoskeletal diseases and injuries by using recent national health statistics data in Japan. Methods Mortality data were taken from Japanese national life tables and death certificates in 2016. Information on medical diagnoses, injuries, and activity were obtained from the 2016 Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions. We examined five disorders: rheumatoid arthritis, arthrosis, low back pain, osteoporosis, and fracture. The prevalence of limitations in activities of daily living (ADL) in the population after eliminating the disorder was estimated as the proportion of outpatients without the disorder and ADL limitations, inpatients without the disorder in hospitals and clinics, and people without the disorder who reside in long-term elderly care facilities. Results There were small gains in life expectancy from elimination of all selected musculoskeletal disorders (0.0–0.1 years). Elimination of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, and fracture slightly increased the expected years without activity limitation (0.1–0.4) and slightly decreased years with activity limitation (0.1–0.4 years). Meanwhile, elimination of arthrosis, low back pain, and arthrosis and low back pain moderately increased expected years without activity limitation (0.3–1.5 years) and decreased years with activity limitation (0.3–1.5 years). In addition, elimination of rheumatoid arthritis, arthrosis, low back pain, osteoporosis, and fracture decreased expected years with ADL limitations (0.0–0.8 years) and non-ADL limitations (0.0–0.3 years). A combination of arthrosis and low back pain showed a moderate decrease in expected years with both ADL limitations (0.7–1.1 years) and non-ADL limitations (0.3–0.4). Conclusions These findings provide clinical evidence that among the musculoskeletal disorders low back pain and arthrosis are the key factors for the elongation of healthy life expectancy.

BackgroundThe authors clarified the causal mechanisms underlying the high prevalence of dental disease encountered in people who habitually use methamphetamine (meth).MethodsUsing a stratified sampling approach, the authors conducted comprehensive oral examinations and psychosocial assessments for 571 study participants who used meth. Three calibrated dentists, who used National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) protocols, characterized the study participants' dental disease. The authors also collected data related to study participants' history of meth use and other attributes linked to dental disease.ResultsStudy participants who used meth manifested higher rates of xerostomia and caries experience compared with NHANES control participants. Participants who used meth had a higher level of daily consumption of sugary beverages compared with NHANES control participants. Smoking meth did not increase caries experience over other modes of intake. Dental hygiene was a significant determinant of dental health outcomes.ConclusionsMode of intake and frequency of meth use have a minimal impact on dental health outcomes. Behaviors, such as sugary beverage consumption and poor oral hygiene, better explain dental health outcomes.Practical implicationsHaving a better understanding of the causal mechanisms of "meth mouth" sets the stage for clinicians to provide more personalized interventions and management of dental disease in people who use meth.

We study in this article some statistical methods to fit some epidemiological parameters. We first consider a fit of the probability distribution which underlines the serial interval distribution of the COVID-19 on a given set of data collected on the viral shedding in patients with laboratory-confirmed. The best-fit model of the non negative serial interval distribution is given by a mixture of two Gamma distributions with different shapes and rates. Thus, we propose a modified version of the generation time function of the package R0. Second, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number in Mayotte. Using a justified mathematical learning model, we estimate the transmission parameters range values during the outbreak together with a sensitivity analysis. Finally, using some regression and forecasting methods, we give some learning models of the hospitalized, intensive care, and death cases over a given period. We end with a discussion and the limit of this study together with some forthcoming theoretical developments.

Copyright of Saúde e Sociedade is the property of Universidade de Sao Paulo, Faculdade de Saude Publica and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The analysis of large amounts of data from electronic medical records (EMRs) and daily clinical practice data sources has received increasing attention in the last years. However, few systematic approaches have been proposed to support the extraction of the wealth and diversity of information from these data sources. Specifically, Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) data are available in many hospitals and health units because ACS shows elevated morbidity and mortality. This work proposes a method called Data Science Analysis and Representation (DSAR) to scrutinize and exploit, in a univariate way, scientific information content in limited ACS samples. DSAR uses Bootstrap Resampling to provide robust, cross-sectional, and non-parametric statistical tests on categorical and metric variables. It also constructs an informative graphical representation of the database variables, which helps to interpret the results and to identify the relevant variables. Our objectives were to validate DSAR by comparing it to conventional statistical methods when looking for the most relevant variables in the secondary prevention of ACS, and to determine the degree of correlation between them and the Exitus event (associated with patient death). To achieve this objective, we applied DSAR on an anonymized sample of 270 variables from 2377 patients diagnosed with ACS. The results showed that DSAR identified 44% significant variables while conventional methods offered weak correlation results. Then, the scientific literature was reviewed for a set of these variables, validating the agreement with clinical experience and previous ACS research. The conclusion is that DSAR is a valuable and a useful method for clinicians in the identification of potentially predictive variables and, overall, a good starting point for future multivariate secondary analyzes in the clinical field of ACS, or fields with similar information characteristics.

Copyright of Ciencia Política is the property of Universidad Nacional de Colombia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: Musculoskeletal disorders are a key cause of morbidity in elderly people. How musculoskeletal disorders relate to healthy life expectancy remain elusive. Hence, we aimed to estimate gains in healthy life expectancy from the elimination of musculoskeletal diseases and injuries by using recent national health statistics data in Japan.Methods: Mortality data were taken from Japanese national life tables and death certificates in 2016. Information on medical diagnoses, injuries, and activity were obtained from the 2016 Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions. We examined five disorders: rheumatoid arthritis, arthrosis, low back pain, osteoporosis, and fracture. The prevalence of limitations in activities of daily living (ADL) in the population after eliminating the disorder was estimated as the proportion of outpatients without the disorder and ADL limitations, inpatients without the disorder in hospitals and clinics, and people without the disorder who reside in long-term elderly care facilities.Results: There were small gains in life expectancy from elimination of all selected musculoskeletal disorders (0.0-0.1 years). Elimination of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, and fracture slightly increased the expected years without activity limitation (0.1-0.4) and slightly decreased years with activity limitation (0.1-0.4 years). Meanwhile, elimination of arthrosis, low back pain, and arthrosis and low back pain moderately increased expected years without activity limitation (0.3-1.5 years) and decreased years with activity limitation (0.3-1.5 years). In addition, elimination of rheumatoid arthritis, arthrosis, low back pain, osteoporosis, and fracture decreased expected years with ADL limitations (0.0-0.8 years) and non-ADL limitations (0.0-0.3 years). A combination of arthrosis and low back pain showed a moderate decrease in expected years with both ADL limitations (0.7-1.1 years) and non-ADL limitations (0.3-0.4).Conclusions: These findings provide clinical evidence that among the musculoskeletal disorders low back pain and arthrosis are the key factors for the elongation of healthy life expectancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background The notion of ‘fact-free politics’ is debated in Europe and the United States of America and has particular relevance for the use of evidence to underpin health and healthcare policies. To better understand how evidence on health and healthcare is used in the national policy-making process in the Netherlands, we explore how different statistics are used in various policy debates on health and healthcare in the Dutch government and parliament. Methods We chose eight ongoing policy debates as case studies representing the subject categories of morbidity, lifestyle, healthcare expenditure and healthcare outcomes, including (1) breast cancer screening rates, prevalence and incidence, (2) dementia prevalence and incidence, (3) prevalence of alcohol use by pregnant women, (4) mobility and school sports participation in children, (5) costs of smoking, (6) Dutch national healthcare expenditure, (7) hospital mortality rates, and (8) bedsore prevalence. Using selected keywords for each policy debate case, we performed a document search to identify documentation of the debates (2014–2016) on the websites of the Dutch government and parliament. We retrieved 163 documents and examined the policy debate cases through a content analyses approach. Results Sources of the statistics used in policy debates were primarily government funded. We identified two distinct functions, i.e. rhetorical and managerial use of statistics. The function of the debate is rhetorical when the specific statistic is used for agenda-setting or to convince the reader of the importance of a topic. The function of the debate is managerial when statistics determine planning, monitoring or evaluation of policy. When evaluating a specific policy, applied statistics were mostly the result of routine or standardised data collection. When policy-makers use statistics for a managerial function, the policy debate mirrors terms derived from scientific debates. Conclusion While statistics used for rhetorical functions do not seem to invite critical reflection, when the function of the debate is managerial, i.e. to plan, monitor or evaluate healthcare, their construction does receive attention. Considering the current role of statistics in rhetorical and managerial debates, there is a need to be cautious of too much leniency towards the technocratic process in exchange for the democratic debate.

BACKGROUND AND AIM Frozen shoulder is a poorly understood pathological entity that is characterised by a painful and stiff shoulder. To analyse the socioeconomic impact of frozen shoulder in terms of cost generation and prolonged absence from work, we conducted a retrospective cohort study based on shoulder injuries through accidents in Switzerland. METHODS Data were obtained from the comprehensive database of the Statistical Service for the Swiss National Accident Insurances (SSUV). Cases with shoulder injuries (ICD-10 codes S4* and M84.3*) and/or an additional code of adhesive capsulitis (M75.0) were extracted. Outcomes were work incapacity, with long-term work incapacity defined as absence from work for >90 days and very-long-term cases with >360 days lost. Healthcare and treatment costs as well as total insurance expenses were measured over a 5-year follow-up. Multivariate statistical analyses were used to quantify the effect of the frozen shoulder complication. RESULTS Among all 456,926 patients with a shoulder injury, 5% or a total of 22,228 posttraumatic frozen shoulder cases were observed over the 8-year period. Patients suffering from a frozen shoulder after shoulder injury showed significantly longer sick leave periods with 30.8% long-term and 9.7% very-long-term cases compared with 9.4% and 1.3%, respectively, in the non-frozen shoulder cohort. Overall costs per case for an injured shoulder without developing a frozen shoulder was roughly CHF 8000, whereas expenses for cases with posttraumatic and postoperative frozen shoulder were CHF 34,000 per case. CONCLUSION Developing a frozen shoulder after a shoulder injury is associated with significant longer work incapacities (3.3–7.5 times) and is responsible for costs of CHF 78 million every year. The presented numbers are for cases covered by the compulsory accident insurance only and do not include the even more frequent idiopathic frozen shoulder cases.

Despite the scale of the spread and economic impact of dementia on families, caregivers and the community as a whole, the disease of dementia is either not discussed at all or is not a priority in low-economic countries. The purpose of this study is to attract attention of policy and decision makers to dementia problems in Ukraine to facilitate developing systems of health care and social care for people living with dementia and their caregivers. It is one of the first attempts to look at the problem of dementia in Ukraine from the public administration point of view in different aspects and directions, as well as an attempt to initiate a professional discussion with policy and decision makers on issues of developing and implementing a strategy for people living with dementia and their families. Since Ukraine is not yet on the list of the countries which joined the global program of counteracting dementia and this problem is not relevant to Ukraine , we tried to make a short comparative analysis of Ukraine with countries for which dementia is one of the national priorities (France, the Netherlands, the USA, the UK, Norway and Australia).

Copyright of Revue Universitaire des Sciences Humaines et Sociales is the property of University of Kasdi Merbah Ouargla and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) is the principal health statistics agency for the United States. It seeks to provide accurate, relevant, and timely data on health status and utilization of health care. As such, the NCHS represents a tremendous repository of behavioral, biological, and clinical data that can be employed to identify issues and effect change in public policy related to liver health and disease. By providing an understanding of the rich, publicly available data systems within the NCHS, investigators may capitalize on an efficient means to shape current knowledge of liver disease.

In this assignment was accomplished a analysis of the public health in Taboão da Serra municipality was accomplished according to data from health information system of Brazil. The southwestern municipality from São Paulo Metropolitan Region presents itself as thefifth smallest municipality in the State and the one with the second biggest demographic density in the State. Taboão da Serra demonstrates a demographic transition with an increasing in the elder population and a epidemiological transition, leaving aside the transmissible chronic morbidities and giving place to nottransmissible chronic morbidities. It exceeded expectations of the millennium by reducing the rate of child mortality and it invests on health with a amount more than expected according to EC 29/2000 and Law 141/2012. It presents a physical structure of a broad attendance network and under construction, as it happens with the Family Health Strategy and is regional reference in some health services, with lack of human resources. It priories health programs to improve the quality on the population's life and to reduce the still alarming statistics of morbidity, mortality by specific causes, infant and maternal-infant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: In 2018, the Ministry of Health undertook a new structure and the organization consisting of three different institutions was combined and gathered under a single roof. Our research reflects the organization period of three different institutions. In our retrospective study, in 2012 activity reports of health institutions in Sivas were evaluated and compared with the 2012 statistics of the Ministry of Health (MoH) reflecting the country in general. We aimed to compare the differences or similarities between them. Material and Method: In our retrospective study, 2012 activity reports of health institutions in Sivas were evaluated and compared with the 2012 statistics of the Ministry of Health. Results: In Sivas, both health manpower and the number of health facilities, as well as morbidity and mortality data were similar to the overall Turkey. In 2012, in Turkey as well as Sivas consulting a physician has an average of eight times in Sivas. More than 60% of the applications were made to second and third level health institutions. It is noteworthy that more than half of the outpatients followed up in the outpatient clinics applied to emergency services and most of them were not emergency applications. also in Turkey, 70% of all deaths in Sivas in heart disease, cancer and respiratory diseases has created. The births were 97-99% in hospitals, 49.6% of them in the country and 35.2% in Sivas by cesarean section. Both Turkey in general, as well as in Sivas child immunization rates are above 90%. Conclusion: When we look at the data of 2012, it is seen that the health data of Sivas Province in 2012 is similar to the country in general except with some exceptions. In order to evaluate the new organization structure which has been passed in 2018, some time should be spent on the new system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Women college students provided extensive health statistics. • The economic rationality of spinsterhood for college alumnae was counterbalanced by social stigmatism and fear of Anglo-Saxon race suicide. • The collection of marriage statistics at Bryn Mawr College exemplified the tension between the 'normal status' of marriage for women and the expectation that professional women remain spinsters. When Bryn Mawr College opened in 1885, then-president James Rhoads highlighted the precautions taken to ensure that the young women students would remain healthy, in reaction to the publicized warnings of Scottish physician Thomas S. Clouston, M.D. Dr. Clouston's concern that girls' higher education would damage their health epitomized a growing anxiety around the status of wives and mothers at a time of increased educational opportunities for the so-called 'fairer sex'. To counter these opinions, college alumnae and administrators turned to statistics. Through a combination of published statistics and informal anecdotes, this article provides an in-depth study of how marriage data were solicited, tabulated, and framed at Bryn Mawr College during the Progressive Era, contributing a detailed case-study to the historiography on the period's debates over educated women. The tension between marriage and a career in research was acutely apparent to the women in academia who were at once responsible for the statistical analysis and among the subjects under investigation. While the survey design and published results emphasized the desired outcome of marriage after graduation, these same documents also offered space for emerging professional trajectories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Preterm infants are a group at high risk of having experienced placental insufficiency. It is unclear which growth charts perform best in identifying infants at increased risk of stillbirth and other adverse perinatal outcomes. We compared 2 birthweight charts (population centiles and INTERGROWTH-21st birthweight centiles) and 3 fetal growth charts (INTERGROWTH-21st fetal growth charts, World Health Organization fetal growth charts, and Gestation Related Optimal Weight [GROW] customised growth charts) to identify which chart performed best in identifying infants at increased risk of adverse perinatal outcome in a preterm population.Methods and Findings: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all preterm infants born at 24.0 to 36.9 weeks gestation in Victoria, Australia, from 2005 to 2015 (28,968 records available for analysis). All above growth charts were applied to the population. Proportions classified as <5th centile and <10th centile by each chart were compared, as were proportions of stillborn infants considered small for gestational age (SGA, <10th centile) by each chart. We then compared the relative performance of non-overlapping SGA cohorts by each chart to our low-risk reference population (infants born appropriate size for gestational age [>10th and <90th centile] by all intrauterine charts [AGAall]) for the following perinatal outcomes: stillbirth, perinatal mortality (stillbirth or neonatal death), Apgar <4 or <7 at 5 minutes, neonatal intensive care unit admissions, suspicion of poor fetal growth leading to expedited delivery, and cesarean section. All intrauterine charts classified a greater proportion of infants as <5th or <10th centile than birthweight charts. The magnitude of the difference between birthweight and fetal charts was greater at more preterm gestations. Of the fetal charts, GROW customised charts classified the greatest number of infants as SGA (22.3%) and the greatest number of stillborn infants as SGA (57%). INTERGROWTH classified almost no additional infants as SGA that were not already considered SGA on GROW or WHO charts; however, those infants classified as SGA by INTERGROWTH had the greatest risk of both stillbirth and total perinatal mortality. GROW customised charts classified a larger proportion of infants as SGA, and these infants were still at increased risk of mortality and adverse perinatal outcomes compared to the AGAall population. Consistent with similar studies in this field, our study was limited in comparing growth charts by the degree of overlap, with many infants classified as SGA by multiple charts. We attempted to overcome this by examining and comparing sub-populations classified as SGA by only 1 growth chart.Conclusions: In this study, fetal charts classified greater proportions of preterm and stillborn infants as SGA, which more accurately reflected true fetal growth restriction. Of the intrauterine charts, INTERGROWTH classified the smallest number of preterm infants as SGA, although it identified a particularly high-risk cohort, and GROW customised charts classified the greatest number at increased risk of perinatal mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Though exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for the first six months is recommended, it remains a debatable issue in both developed and developing countries. Thus, this study investigated the effect of EBF cessation time on childhood morbidity and adverse nutritional outcome in Ethiopia. Methods: We used the 2011 and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys. The study involved 2,433 children under six months of age. Logistic regression model was applied to determine the effect of EBF cessation time on outcome variables. Population Attributable Fraction was calculated to evaluate the public health impacts of EBF termination in the population. Results: Discontinuing EBF at 0–3 months (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 3.53)) and 4–6 months (AOR: 3.57, 95% CI: 2.19, 5.83) increased diarrhea occurrence compared to children who continued EBF up to 6 months. Children who had terminated EBF at 4–6 months had increased odds of fever (AOR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.11, 2.68) and acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) (AOR: 2.74, 95% CI: 1.61, 4.65). Cessation of EBF earlier than 4 months or between 4–6 months was associated with increased odds of having at least one childhood morbidity. Termination of EBF at 0–3 months and at 4–6 months were associated with increased occurrence of wasting (AOR: 2.32, 95% CI: 1.45, 3.74) and underweight (AOR: 2.30, 95% CI: 1.36, 3.91), respectively. Exclusive breastfeeding can avert 42% of diarrhea, 27% of ARI, 21% of fever, 26% of wasting and 23% of underweight burden among children under six months of age. Conclusions: Termination of EBF before six months was associated with increased occurrence of diarrhea, fever and ARIs. It was also linked with increased occurrence of childhood wasting and underweight. The finding emphasized EBF for the first six months to reduce childhood morbidity and adverse nutritional outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems play a key role in upholding human rights and generating data for health and good governance. They also can help monitor progress in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Although many countries have made substantial progress in strengthening their CRVS systems, most low- and middle-income countries still have underdeveloped systems. The objective of this systematic review is to identify national policies that can help countries strengthen their systems.Methods and Findings: The ABI/INFORM, Embase, JSTOR, PubMed, and WHO Index Medicus databases were systematically searched for policies to improve birth and/or death registration on 24 January 2017. Global stakeholders were also contacted for relevant grey literature. For the purposes of this review, policies were categorised as supply, demand, incentive, penalty, or combination (i.e., at least two of the preceding policy approaches). Quantitative results on changes in vital event registration rates were presented for individual comparative articles. Qualitative systematic review methodology, including meta-ethnography, was used for qualitative syntheses on operational considerations encompassing acceptability to recipients and staff, human resource requirements, information technology or infrastructure requirements, costs to the health system, unintended effects, facilitators, and barriers. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018085768. Thirty-five articles documenting experience in implementing policies to improve birth and/or death registration were identified. Although 25 countries representing all global regions (Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, Europe, and the Eastern Mediterranean) were reflected, there were limited countries from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Twenty-four articles reported policy effects on birth and/or death registration. Twenty-one of the 24 articles found that the change in registration rate after the policy was positive, with two supply and one penalty articles being the exceptions. The qualitative syntheses identified 15 operational considerations across all policy categories. Human and financial resource requirements were not quantified. The primary limitation of this systematic review was the threat of publication bias wherein many countries may not have documented their experience; this threat is most concerning for policies that had neutral or negative effects.Conclusions: Our systematic review suggests that combination policy approaches, consisting of at least a supply and demand component, were consistently associated with improved registration rates in different geographical contexts. Operational considerations should be interpreted based on health system, governance, and sociocultural context. More evaluations and research are needed from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Further research and evaluation are also needed to estimate the human and financial resource requirements required for different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although many studies have compared birth-weight charts to determine which better identify infants at risk of adverse perinatal outcomes, less attention has been given to the threshold used to define small or large for gestational age (SGA or LGA) infants. Our aim was to explore different thresholds associated with increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes using population, customised, and Intergrowth centile charts.Methods and Findings: This is a population-based cohort study (Swedish Medical Birth Registry), which included term singleton births between 2006 and 2015 from women with available data on first-trimester screening. Population, customised, and Intergrowth charts were studied. Outcomes included cesarean section, postpartum haemorrhage, severe perineal tear, Apgar score at 5 minutes, neonatal morbidity, and perinatal mortality. Odds for each outcome were assessed in intervals of 5 centiles of birth weight (reference being 40th-60th centiles) using logistic regression. Intervals of 5% of the population were also explored. Sensitivity for fixed false-positive rates (FPRs) was reported for neonatal outcomes. Data from 212,101 births were analysed. Mean age was 33 ± 5 years, 48% of women were nulliparous, and 80% were born in Sweden. Prevalence of SGA (<10th centile) was 10.1%, 10.0%, and 3.1%, and prevalence of LGA (>90th centile) was 10.0%, 8.2%, and 25.1%, assessed using population, customised, and Intergrowth charts, respectively. In small infants, the risk of perinatal mortality was consistently increased below the 15th, 10th, and 35th birth-weight centiles for the respective charts (odds ratio [OR] 1.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.39, p = 0.03 for 10th-15th population centile; OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.74-3.71, p < 0.001 for 5th-10th customised centile; OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.07-3.04, p = 0.03 for 30th-35th Intergrowth centile). The strength of association with adverse perinatal outcomes was different between infants below the 5th birth-weight centile for each chart (OR 4.47, 95% CI 3.30-6.04, p < 0.001 for the population chart; OR 5.78, 95% CI 4.22-7.91, p < 0.001 for the customised chart; OR 10.74, 95% CI 7.32-15.77, p < 0.001 for the Intergrowth chart) but similar in the smallest 5% of the population (OR 4.34, 95% CI 3.22-5.86, p < 0.001 for the population chart; OR 5.23, 95% CI 3.85-7.11, p < 0.001 for the customised chart; OR 4.69, 95% CI 3.47-6.34, p < 0.001 for the Intergrowth chart). For a fixed FPR of 10%, different thresholds for each chart achieved similar sensitivity for perinatal mortality in small infants (29% for all charts). Similar behaviour of different thresholds and similar risk/sensitivity for fixed FPR were observed in relation to other outcomes and for LGA infants. Limitations of this study include the relative homogeneity of the Swedish population, which limits generalisability to other populations; customised centiles may perform differently in populations with increased heterogeneity of ethnic background.Conclusions: The risk of adverse outcomes was consistent across proportions of the population but did not reflect fixed thresholds, such as the 10th or 90th centiles, across different growth charts. Chart-specific thresholds for the population should be considered in clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Integrated disease management, disability and inclusion (DMDI) for NTDs is increasingly prioritised. There is limited evidence on the effectiveness of integrated DMDI from the perspective of affected individuals and how this varies by differing axes of inequality such as age, gender, and disability. We used narrative methods to consider how individuals’ unique positions of power and privilege shaped their illness experience, to elucidate what practical and feasible steps could support integrated DMDI in Liberia and beyond. Methods: We purposively selected 27 participants affected by the clinical manifestations of lymphatic filariasis, leprosy, Buruli Ulcer, and onchocerciasis from three counties in Liberia to take part in illness narrative interviews. Participants were selected to ensure maximum variation in age, gender and clinical manifestation. Narrative analysis was grounded within feminist intersectional theory. Findings: For all participants, chronic illness, morbidity and disability associated with NTDs represented a key moment of ‘biographical disruption’ triggering the commencement of a restitution narrative. Complex health seeking pathways, aetiologies and medical syncretism meant that adoption of the ‘sick role’ was initially acceptable, but when the reality of permanency of condition was identified, a transition to periods of chaos and significant psycho-social difficulty occurred. An intersectional lens emphasises how biographical disruption is mediated by intersecting social processes. Gender, generation, and disability were all dominant axes of social inequity shaping experience. Significance: This is one of the first studies to use narrative approaches to interrogate experience of chronic disabling conditions within LMICs and is the only study to apply such an analysis to NTDs. The emotive power of narrative should be utilised to influence the value base of policy makers to ensure that DMDI strategies respond holistically to the needs of the most marginalised, thus contributing to more equitable people-centred care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite associated with gastrointestinal illness. In immune-compromised individuals, the infection may become life-threatening. Cryptosporidiosis is a mandatory-reported disease but little was known about its prevalence and associated morbidity in Israel. Currently, laboratory diagnosis is based on microscopy or copro-antigen tests and the disease is underreported. Molecular assays, which are more sensitive and specific, are now increasingly used for identification and screening. Here, the molecular epidemiology of cryptosporidiosis is explored for the first time. Samples from 33 patients infected during an outbreak of 146 laboratory confirmed cases that occurred in Haifa and Western Galilee in 2015 were genotyped, as well as samples from 36 patients sporadically infected during 2014–2018 in different regions. The results suggest that Cryptosporidium subtypes found in Israel are more similar to those reported in the neighboring countries Jordan and Egypt than in European countries. C. hominis was the predominant species in the center and the north of Israel, implicating human-to-human transmission. C. hominis IeA11G3T3 was the most prevalent subtype contributing to morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aims to assess the decline in telomere length (TL) with age and evaluate effect modification by gender, chronic stress, and comorbidity in a representative sample of the US population. Methods: Cross-sectional data on 7826 adults with a TL measurement, were included from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, years 1999–2002. The population rate of decline in TL across 10-year age categories was estimated using crude and adjusted regression. Results: In an adjusted model, the population rate of decline in TL with age was consistent and linear for only three age categories: 20–29 (β = -0.0172, 95% CI: -0.0342, -0.0002), 50–59 (β = -0.0182, 95% CI: -0.0311, -0.0054) and 70–79 (β = -0.0170, 95% CI: -0.0329, -0.0011) years. The population rate of decline in TL with age was significantly greater for males and those with high allostatic load and a history of comorbidities. When the population rate of decline in TL was analyzed by gender in 10-year age bins, a fairly consistent yet statistically non-significant decline for males was observed; however, a trough in the rate was observed for females in the age categories 20–29 years (β = -0.0284, 95% CI: -0.0464, -0.0103) and 50–59 years (β = -0.0211, 95% CI: -0.0391, -0.0032). To further elucidate the gender difference observed in the primary analyses, secondary analyses were conducted with reproductive and hormonal status; a significant inverse association was found between TL and parity, menopause, and age at menopause. Conclusions: TL was shorter with increasing age and this decline was modified by gender, chronic stress and comorbidities; individuals with chronic morbidity and/or chronic stress and females in their twenties and fifties experienced greater decline. Female reproductive factors, i.e., parity and menopause, were associated with TL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Childhood morbidities are common in Ghana. The present study sought to geospatially analyze morbidities among children (0–23 months of age) using five different survey datasets (1993–2014) from the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey. Methods: Logistic regression was used to examine childhood morbidity within a place of residence. Then three spatial statistical tools were applied to analyze morbidities among children (0–23 months of age). These tools were: spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I)—used to examine clustering or dispersion patterns; cluster and outlier analysis (Anselin’s local Moran’s I)—to ascertain geographic composition of childhood morbidity clusters and outliers; and hot spot analysis (Getis-Ord G)—to identify clusters of high values (hot spots) and low values (cold spots). Results: Children in rural areas were much burdened with the occurrence of childhood morbidity. The study revealed positive spatial autocorrelation for childhood morbidity in Ghana. Childhood morbidity (diarrhoea, ARI, anaemia, and fever) clusters were identified within districts in the country. Children in rural areas were more likely to be morbid with diarrhoea, anaemia, and fever compared to those in urban areas. Hot spot districts for diarrhoea, anaemia and fever were mainly situated in semi-arid areas and those with ARI were located both at the semi-arid areas and coastal portions of Ghana. Conclusion: Rural children are much exposed to have higher burden of a childhood morbidity compared to their urban counterparts. Most semi-arid districts in Ghana are burdened with diarrhoea, ARI, anaemia, and fever. To minimize the occurrence of childhood morbidity in Ghana, designing of more context-based interventions to target hot spots districts of these morbidities are required in order to use scarce resources judiciously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetes plays an important role in the complex relationship between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease. This retrospective observational study compared the influence of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria on the risk of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; myocardial infarction or stroke) in CKD patients with and without diabetes. Data were from a linked database of UK electronic health records. Individuals with CKD and no prior MACE were classified as type 1 diabetes (T1DM; n = 164), type 2 diabetes (T2DM; n = 9,711), and non-diabetes (non-DM; n = 75,789). Monthly updated time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for progression to MACE from first record of abnormal eGFR or proteinuria (index date). In non-DM, aHRs (95% CIs) by baseline eGFR category (referent G2) were G1: 0.70 (0.55–0.90), G3a: 1.28 (1.20–1.35), G3b: 1.64 (1.52–1.76), G4: 2.19 (1.98–2.43), and G5: 3.12 (2.44–3.99), and by proteinuria category (referent A1) were A2: 1.13 (1.00–1.28), A2/3 (severity indeterminable): 1.58 (1.28–1.95), and A3: 1.64 (1.38–1.95). In T2DM, aHRs were G1: 0.98 (0.72–1.32), G3a: 1.18 (1.03–1.34), G3b: 1.31 (1.12–1.54), G4: 1.87 (1.53–2.29), G5: 2.87 (1.82–4.52), A2: 1.22 (1.04–1.42), A2/3: 1.45 (1.17–1.79), and A3: 1.82 (1.53–2.16). Low numbers in T1DM precluded analysis. Modelling T2DM and non-DM together, aHRs were, respectively, G1: 3.23 (2.38–4.40) and 0.70 (0.55–0.89); G2: 3.18 (2.73–3.70) and 1.00 (referent); G3a: 3.65 (3.13–4.25) and 1.28 (1.21–1.36); G3b: 4.01 (3.40–4.74) and 1.65 (1.54–1.77); G4: 5.78 (4.70–7.10) and 2.21 (2.00–2.45); G5: 9.00 (5.71–14.18) and 3.14 (2.46–4.00). In conclusion, reduced eGFR and proteinuria were independently associated with increased risk of MACE regardless of diabetes status. However, the risk of MACE in the same eGFR state was 4.6–2.4 times higher in T2DM than in non-DM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aimed to associate for the first time in the literature Regulatory Focus and Self-Determination theories to understand the dynamics of physical activity practice in the health context. Two cross-sectional studies were conducted with 603 (Study 1) and 395 (Study 2) French volunteer participants aged from 18 to 69 and 19 to 71 respectively, who were healthy or concerned by a health condition. The main results of structural equation modeling analyses demonstrated that across the two studies, health promotion focus was positively associated with intrinsic motivation (.44 < β < .74, p < .001), integrated regulation (.47 < β < .72, p < .001), identified regulation (.40 < β < .69, p < .001) and introjected regulation (.41 < β < .53, p < .001), whereas health prevention focus was positively related with external regulation (.31 < β < .45, p < .001) and amotivation (.32 < β < .38, p < .001). Bootstrapping analyses main results in Study 2 showed that health promotion focus was indirectly associated with physical activity through intrinsic motivation (95% CI [.02 to .11]), integrated regulation (95% CI [.00 to .08]), identified regulation (95% CI [.00 to .09]) and introjected regulation (95% CI [.04 to .12]), whereas health prevention focus was indirectly associated with physical activity through external regulation (95% CI [.00 to .12]). These studies reveal meaningful associations between Regulatory Focus and Self-Determination theories’ variables which support the relevance of associating these two models to understand the processes underlying the physical activity practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We aimed to better understand how well postpartum blood loss and common postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) definitions (i.e. blood loss ≥500ml = PPH, ≥1000ml = “severe” PPH) correlate with postpartum anemia and fall in hemoglobin. Methods: Secondary analysis of data from three randomized trials that objectively measured postpartum blood loss and pre- and post-delivery hemoglobin among vaginal deliveries: one trial included 1056 home-births in Pakistan and two multi-country hospital-based trials included 1279 women diagnosed with PPH. We calculated Spearman’s correlation coefficients (rs) for blood loss with hemoglobin drop and postpartum hemoglobin, and we compared PPH blood loss markers (≥500ml, ≥1000ml) with large hemoglobin drops (≥2 g/dL) and the threshold for moderate postpartum anemia (<10g/dL). Results: In the Pakistan study and the multi-country trials, blood loss was weakly correlated with hemoglobin drop (Pakistan: rs = -0.220, multi-country trials: rs = -0.271) and postpartum hemoglobin (Pakistan: rs = -0.220, multi-country trials: rs = -0.316). In both the Pakistan and multi-country trials, hemoglobin drop ≥2 g/dL occurred in less than half of women with 500–999 ml blood loss (55/175 [31%] and 302/725 [42%], respectively) and was more common among women who bled ≥1000ml (19/28 [68%] and 347/554 [63%], respectively). Similarly, in the Pakistan and multi-country trials, postpartum anemia <10 g/dL was less frequent among women who bled 500–999 ml (55/175 [31%] and 390/725 [54%], respectively) and more frequent among women with ≥1000ml blood loss (20/28 [71%] and 416/554 [75%], respectively). Conclusions: Postpartum morbidity as measured by hemoglobin markers was common for women with blood loss ≥1000ml and relatively infrequent among women with blood loss 500-999ml. These findings reinforce the importance of severe PPH as the preferred outcome to be used in research. The weak correlation between blood loss and hemoglobin markers also suggests that this relationship is not straightforward and should be carefully interpreted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Impaired cardiac vagal function, quantified preoperatively as slower heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise, is independently associated with perioperative myocardial injury. Parasympathetic (vagal) dysfunction may also promote (extra-cardiac) multi-organ dysfunction, although perioperative data are lacking. Assuming that cardiac vagal activity, and therefore heart rate recovery response, is a marker of brainstem parasympathetic dysfunction, we hypothesized that impaired HRR would be associated with a higher incidence of morbidity after noncardiac surgery. Methods: In two prospective, blinded, observational cohort studies, we established the definition of impaired vagal function in terms of the HRR threshold that is associated with perioperative myocardial injury (HRR ≤ 12 beats min-1 (bpm), 60 seconds after cessation of cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The primary outcome of this secondary analysis was all-cause morbidity three and five days after surgery, defined using the Post-Operative Morbidity Survey. Secondary outcomes of this analysis were type of morbidity and time to become morbidity-free. Logistic regression and Cox regression tested for the association between HRR and morbidity. Results are presented as odds/hazard ratios [OR or HR; (95% confidence intervals). Results: 882/1941 (45.4%) patients had HRR≤12bpm. All-cause morbidity within 5 days of surgery was more common in 585/822 (71.2%) patients with HRR≤12bpm, compared to 718/1119 (64.2%) patients with HRR>12bpm (OR:1.38 (1.14–1.67); p = 0.001). HRR≤12bpm was associated with more frequent episodes of pulmonary (OR:1.31 (1.05–1.62);p = 0.02)), infective (OR:1.38 (1.10–1.72); p = 0.006), renal (OR:1.91 (1.30–2.79); p = 0.02)), cardiovascular (OR:1.39 (1.15–1.69); p<0.001)), neurological (OR:1.73 (1.11–2.70); p = 0.02)) and pain morbidity (OR:1.38 (1.14–1.68); p = 0.001) within 5 days of surgery. Conclusions: Multi-organ dysfunction is more common in surgical patients with cardiac vagal dysfunction, defined as HRR ≤ 12 bpm after preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Clinical trial registry: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multimorbidity is considered a major challenge for current health care. Lifestyle interventions, as a broad and generic approach, may have the potential to improve the management of care among patients with multimorbidity. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of multimorbidity defined within the cardiometabolic disease domains with dietary patterns, representing habitual dietary intake. Design: We studied 129 369 participants from the Lifelines Cohort study (42% male, 45±13 years (range 18–93)) in which diet was assessed using a 110-item food frequency questionnaire. A composite morbidity score was applied in multivariable ordered logistic regression to test the association with dietary patterns derived by principal components analysis, based on sex-specific dietary pattern scores. Results: Four dietary patterns were retained, accounting for 26.6% of the variation in overall diet. After control for potential confounders, men and women in the highest quintile of “meat, alcohol and potato pattern” and “snack pattern” had a higher likelihood of having higher morbidity scores than those in the lowest quintile (e.g. men: OR = 1.83(95% CI:1.71–1.97), OR = 1.18(95% CI 1.11–1.27 respectively). The opposite was observed with respect to the “bread and sweets pattern” and “vegetable, fish and fruit pattern” (e.g. women: OR = 0.88(95% CI: 0.81–0.96), OR = 0.86(95% CI 0.81–0.92 respectively). The association partially attenuated after adjusting for BMI, but the associations remained significant among men. Conclusions: Robust associations between dietary patterns and multimorbidity within the cardiometabolic domain, in particular a “meat, alcohol and potato pattern”, suggest an important opportunity of dietary interventions in multimobidity prevention. Generic prevention strategies based on population derived dietary patterns may have the potential to enhance lifestyle management among people with multimorbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Serum uric acid (SUA) has long been associated with cardiovascular disease. Variability of serum uric acid (SUA) has seldom been examined in association with long-term morbidity and mortality. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association between SUA variability and long-term all-cause and specific-cause mortality. Methods: Among 10,059 men, aged 40–65, tenured civil servants and municipal employees in Israel, 8822 participants who were examined in 1963, 1965 and 1968 had assessment of diabetic and coronary morbidity status and SUA levels. We conducted analysis examining whether the standard deviations (SD) of Z-scores of SUA across study visits predicted coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) associated with the SD of SUA-Z were calculated for stroke, CHD mortality and all-cause mortality associated with quartiles of the above variability. Results: Multivariate analysis of 18-year CHD mortality yielded a significant association with the 1963–1968 SD of SUA-Z with age adjusted HR of CHD mortality of 0.97 (95% CI, 0.8–1.19), 1.05 (95% CI, 0.87–1.28) and 1.37 (95% CI, 1.15–1.65) for quartiles 2 to 4 respectively). The results of all-cause mortality similarly and strongly indicated increasing age-adjusted mortality risk with increasing SD of SUA-Z: HR = 1.08 (95% CI, 0.97–1.21), 1.15 (1.03–1.28) and 1.37 (1.23–1.51). No association was observed between the SD of SUA-Z and stroke mortality. Conclusion: In this cohort of tenured male workers, with diverse occupations, higher variability of SUA measurement taken over 5 years was clearly predictive of 18-year CHD and all-cause mortality, above and beyond the SUA levels proper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This prospective cohort investigation analyzed the long-term functional and neurologic outcomes of patients with Zika virus-associated Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in Barranquilla, Colombia. Methods: Thirty-four Zika virus-associated GBS cases were assessed a median of 17 months following acute GBS illness. We assessed demographics, results of Overall Disability Sum Scores (ODSS), Hughes Disability Score (HDS), Zung Depression Scale (ZDS), and Health Related Quality of Life (HRQL) questionnaires; and compared outcomes indices with a normative sample of neighborhood-selected control subjects in Barranquilla without GBS. Results: Median age at time of acute neurologic onset was 49 years (range, 10–80); 17 (50%) were male. No deaths occurred. At long-term follow-up, 25 (73%) patients had a HDS 0–1, indicating complete / near complete recovery. Among the group, HDS (mean 1.4, range 0–4), ODSS (mean 1.9, range 0–9) and ZDS score (mean 34.4, range 20–56) indicated mild / moderate ongoing disability. Adjusting for age and sex, Zika virus-associated GBS cases were similar to a population comparison group (n = 368) in Barranquilla without GBS in terms of prevalence of physical or mental health complaints, though GBS patients were more likely to have an ODSS of ≥ 1 (OR 8.8, 95% CI 3.2–24.5) and to suffer from moderate / moderate-severe depression (OR 3.89, 95% CI 1.23–11.17) than the comparison group. Conclusions: Long-term outcomes of Zika virus-associated GBS are consistent with those associated with other antecedent antigenic stimuli in terms of mortality and ongoing long-term morbidity, as published in the literature. Persons with Zika virus-associated GBS more frequently reported disability and depression after approximately one year compared with those without GBS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The incidence of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is increasing, particularly human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated OPC. The aim of this study was to specify the total societal cost of OPC by HPV status, cancer stage, and subsite using a bottom-up cost-of-illness approach. Methods: We analyzed 121 consecutive patients with OPC from the Southern Health Care Region of Sweden. We estimated the direct medical costs and indirect costs (e.g., disease-related morbidity and premature death) from 1 month prior to OPC diagnosis until 3 years after treatment completion. Results: The mean total cost per patient was €103 386 for HPV-positive and €120 244 for HPV-negative OPC. Eighty-one percent of the patients analyzed were HPV-positive: Accordingly, HPV-positive OPC represented 79% of the total cost of OPC. The mean total cost of stage I, II, III, IVA, IVB, and IVC, regardless of HPV status, was €59 424, €57 000, €69 246, €115 770, €234 459, and €21 930, respectively, of which indirect costs were estimated at €22 493 (37.8%), €14 754 (25.9%), €28 681 (41.4%), €67 107 (58%), €166 280 (70.9%), and €0. Tonsillar cancer represented 64% of OPC, with a mean total cost of €117 512 per patient. Conclusion: The societal cost of OPC is substantial. HPV-associated OPC comprises 79% of the total cost of this disease. The data presented in this study may be used in analytical models to aid decision makers in determining the potential value of gender-neutral HPV vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article argues on the burden of Hepatitis E disease, combined with the neglect by the public health, research, and limited options for treatment, make it a candidate for classification as a neglected tropical disease (NTD.) It mentions benefits of classification as an NTD to help break the cycle of neglect by accelerating advances in research and public health action; and also mentions that Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) g1/g2 has a significant burden globally among the subtropical populations.

Hospital performance is often measured using self-reported statistics, such as the incidence of hospital-transmitted micro-organisms or those exhibiting antimicrobial resistance (AMR), encouraging hospitals with high levels to improve their performance. However, hospitals that increase screening efforts will appear to have a higher incidence and perform poorly, undermining comparison between hospitals and disincentivising testing, thus hampering infection control. We propose a surveillance system in which hospitals test patients previously discharged from other hospitals and report observed cases. Using English National Health Service (NHS) Hospital Episode Statistics data, we analysed patient movements across England and assessed the number of hospitals required to participate in such a reporting scheme to deliver robust estimates of incidence. With over 1.2 million admissions to English hospitals previously discharged from other hospitals annually, even when only a fraction of hospitals (41/155) participate (each screening at least 1000 of these admissions), the proposed surveillance system can estimate incidence across all hospitals. By reporting on other hospitals, the reporting of incidence is separated from the task of improving own performance. Therefore the incentives for increasing performance can be aligned to increase (rather than decrease) screening efforts, thus delivering both more comparable figures on the AMR problems across hospitals and improving infection control efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information related to the implications for onchocerciasis elimination programs (OEP). Topics discussed include OEP do not include identification and management of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) in their strategies; creating awareness about OAE, that can increase community-directed treatment with ivermectin adherence; and the morbidity management and disease prevention strategy.

Background: Geospatial data are important in monitoring many aspects of healthcare development. Geographically linking health facility data with population data is an important area of public health research. Examining healthcare problems spatially and hierarchically assists with efficient resource allocation and the monitoring and evaluation of service efficacy at different levels. This paper explored methodological issues associated with geographic data linkage, and the spatial and multilevel analyses that could be considered in analysing maternal health service data. Methods: The 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey and the 2014 Ethiopia Service Provision Assessment data were used. Two geographic data linking methods were used to link these two datasets. Administrative boundary link was used to link a sample of health facilities data with population survey data for analysing three areas of maternal health service use. Euclidean buffer link was used for a census of hospitals to analyse caesarean delivery use in Ethiopia. The Global Moran’s I and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics need to be carried out for identifying hot spots of maternal health service use in ArcGIS software. In addition to this, since the two datasets contain hierarchical data, a multilevel analysis was carried out to identify key determinants of maternal health service use in Ethiopia. Results: Administrative boundary link gave more types of health facilities and more maternal health services as compared to the Euclidean buffer link. Administrative boundary link is the method of choice in case of sampled health facilities. However, for a census of health facilities, the Euclidean buffer link is the appropriate choice as this provides cluster level service environment estimates, which the administrative boundary link does not. Applying a False Discovery Rate correction enables the identification of true spatial clusters of maternal health service use. Conclusions: A service environment link minimizes the methodological issues associated with geographic data linkage. A False Discovery Rate correction needs to be used to account for multiple and dependent testing while carrying out local spatial statistics. Examining maternal health service use both spatially and hierarchically has tremendous importance for identifying geographic areas that need special emphasis and for intervention purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: More than 1.5 billion people are infected with soil-transmitted helminths (Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm, Strongyloides stercoralis, and Trichuris trichiura), causing an estimated global burden in excess of 3 million disability-adjusted life years. However, the relationship between soil-transmitted helminth infection, adverse health consequences, and beneficial effects of deworming are not well understood. Methodology: We pursued a detailed longitudinal clinical evaluation of school-age children to evaluate morbidity associated with soil-transmitted helminth infection and responses to treatment. This exploratory study was embedded into a randomized controlled trial. Overall, 434 children, aged 7–14 years, underwent a detailed medical history, physical examination, stool microscopy for soil-transmitted helminths, and hemoglobin (Hb) measurement at baseline. Medical history and stool examination were repeated at 3 and 18 weeks posttreatment. Additionally, Hb measurement was performed at the 18-week treatment follow-up. Logistic regression was employed to assess clinical factors associated with soil-transmitted helminth infection at baseline, and longitudinal data analysis to examine change in health outcomes following treatment over time. Principal findings: All enrolled children were infected with T. trichiura, and randomized into four different treatment interventions. None of the medical history, physical examination, and laboratory (i.e., Hb) findings were associated with A. lumbricoides, hookworm, or S. stercoralis infection at baseline. A composite of physical exam findings for anemia, including pallor of the conjunctiva, nail beds, and palmar creases predicted lower Hb values (-3.8 g/dl, 95% confidence interval (CI): -6.9, -0.6 g/dl). When examining longitudinal trends, we did not find improvements to Hb or face Wong-Baker Likert scale among children with soil-transmitted helminth infection compared to those without infection, although there was a slight trend toward improving Hb values after treating hookworm infection. Conclusions/significance: Our study demonstrates the challenges of measuring morbidity in the context of soil-transmitted helminth infection and treatment, thus confirming the mainly subtle morbidity effects of infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Bangladesh Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) Elimination Programme has made significant progress in interrupting transmission through mass drug administration (MDA) and has now focussed its efforts on scaling up managing morbidity and preventing disability (MMDP) activities to deliver the minimum package of care to people affected by LF clinical conditions. This paper highlights the Bangladesh LF Programme’s success in conducting a large-scale cross-sectional survey to determine the number of people affected by lymphoedema and hydrocoele, which enabled clinical risk maps to be developed for targeted interventions across the 34 endemic districts (19 high endemic; 15 low endemic). Methodology/Principal findings: In the 19 high endemic districts, 8,145 community clinic staff were trained to identify and report patients in their catchment area. In the 15 low endemic districts, a team of 10 trained field assistants conducted active case finding with cases reported via a SMS mHealth tool. Disease burden and prevalence maps were developed, with morbidity hotspots identified at sub-district level based on a combination of the highest prevalence rates per 100,000 and case-density rates per square kilometre (km2). The relationship between morbidity and baseline microfilaria (mf) prevalence was also examined. In total 43,678 cases were identified in the 19 high endemic districts; 30,616 limb lymphoedema (70.1%; female 55.3%), 12,824 hydrocoele (29.4%), and 238 breast/female genital swelling (0.5%). Rangpur Division reported the highest cases numbers and prevalence of lymphoedema (26,781 cases, 195 per 100,000) and hydrocoele (11661 cases, 169.6 per 100,000), with lymphoedema predominately affecting females (n = 21,652). Rangpur and Lalmonirhat Districts reported the highest case numbers (n = 11,199), and prevalence (569 per 100,000) respectively, with five overlapping lymphoedema and hydrocoele sub-district hotspots. In the 15 low endemic districts, 732 cases were identified; 661 lymphoedema (90.2%; female 39.6%), 56 hydrocoele (7.8%), and 15 both conditions (2.0%). Spearman’s correlation analysis found morbidity and mf prevalence significantly positively correlated (r = 0.904; p<0.01). Conclusions/Significance: The Bangladesh LF Programme has developed one of the largest, most comprehensive country databases on LF clinical conditions in the world. It provides an essential database for health workers to identify local morbidity hotspots, deliver the minimum package of care, and address the dossier elimination requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The world population is aging very rapidly and the impact is more severe in developing countries because of insufficient resources and low awareness of the challenges faced by older people. This study aimed to explore multimorbidity of older people in Myanmar and their health seeking behaviours. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in both urban and rural areas of Bago Region and Mon State during October 2016. A multistage sampling method was used to select 4,859 people aged 60 years and older. Participants were interviewed face-to-face using a questionnaire. Multinominal logistic regression was used to analyse data. Results: More than half of the study participants (57.9%) reported at least one chronic condition in the last year and 33.2% reported two or more conditions (multimorbidity). The common conditions were hypertension (67.3%), arthritis (24.7%), arrhythmia (14.7%), coronary heart disease (13.8%) and diabetes (13.7%). A majority (61.7%) of participants with a chronic condition took western medicine. Older people usually saw a doctor (60.2%) or health assistant (21.9%) at a nearby clinic or rural health center; 1.6% reported seeing uncredentialed medical persons. Factors associated with multimorbidity were being female (adjusted Prevalence Ratio (aPR) = 2.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.63–2.82) and having fair (aPR = 2.20, 95% CI 1.59–3.04) or poor self-reported health (aPR = 3.93, 95% CI 2.79–5.52). Those with less than middle school education (aPR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.25–0.99) and those living in rural areas (aPR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.62–0.98) were less likely to have multimorbidity. Older people in rural areas had less access to health care than their urban counterparts. Conclusion: Chronic conditions are common among older people in Myanmar, with higher prevalence in women and in urban areas. The lower prevalence of chronic conditions in those who live in rural areas may be related to living a more traditional lifestyle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a useful tool for evaluating causes of death, especially in places with limited or no vital registration systems. The Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) developed a validated questionnaire and a set of automated methods to determine the cause of death from a VA. However, the application of these methods needs to be tested in a community environment. Objective: To estimate cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) using VAs and compare them against those obtained in the vital statistics of the state of Hidalgo, Mexico. Methods: A random sample of deaths occurred in 2009 was selected from vital statistics in the state of Hidalgo. The full PHMRC validated VA instrument was applied to the relatives of the deceased, and the cause of death was determined using Tariff's automated method. The causes of death were grouped into 34 causes for adults, 21 for children and 6 for newborns. Results were compared with cause of death on death certificates for all deaths. Results: A total of 1,198 VAs were analyzed. The Tariff method was not able to assign a cause of death in only 9% of adults, 2% of children and 7% of neonatal deaths. The CSMFs obtained from the Tariff method were similar in some cases to those of vital statistics (e.g. cirrhosis), but different in others (e.g. sepsis). Conclusion: The application of VAs in a community sample, analyzed with the Tariff method, allowed assigning a cause of death to most of the cases, with results similar to those of vital statistics for most conditions. This tool can be useful to strengthen the quality of vital statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]