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385 results on '"Hazeleger, Wilco"'

3. All Kinds of Integration : WMO’s Strategy for Seamless Prediction

Author

Ruti, Paolo, Tarasova, Oksana, Keller, Julia, Carmichael, Greg, Hov, Øystein, Jones, Sarah, Terblanche, Deon, Anderson-Lefale, Cheryl, Barros, Ana, Bauer, Peter, Bouchet, Véronique, Brasseur, Guy, Brunet, Gilbert, DeCola, Phil, Dike, Victor, Kane, Mariane Diop, Gan, Christopher, Gurney, Kevin, Hamburg, Steven, Hazeleger, Wilco, Jean, Michel, Johnston, David, Lewis, Alastair, Li, Peter, Liang, Xudong, Lucarini, Valerio, Lynch, Amanda, Manaenkova, Elena, Jae-Cheol, Nam, Ohtake, Satoru, Pinardi, Nadia, Polcher, Jan, Ritchie, Elizabeth, Sakya, Andi Eka, Saulo, Celeste, Singhee, Amith, Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena, Steiner, Andrea, Thorpe, Alan, and Yamaji, Moeka

Published
2020

6. Advancing Research for Seamless Earth System Prediction

Author

Ruti, Paolo M., Tarasova, Oksana, Keller, Julia H., Carmichael, Greg, Hov, Øystein, Jones, Sarah C., Terblanche, Deon, Anderson-Lefale, Cheryl, Barros, Ana P., Bauer, Peter, Bouchet, Véronique, Brasseur, Guy, Brunet, Gilbert, DeCola, Phil, Dike, Victor, Kane, Mariane Diop, Gan, Christopher, Gurney, Kevin R., Hamburg, Steven, Hazeleger, Wilco, Jean, Michel, Johnston, David, Lewis, Alastair, Li, Peter, Liang, Xudong, Lucarini, Valerio, Lynch, Amanda, Manaenkova, Elena, Jae-Cheol, Nam, Ohtake, Satoru, Pinardi, Nadia, Polcher, Jan, Ritchie, Elizabeth, Sakya, Andi Eka, Saulo, Celeste, Singhee, Amith, Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena, Steiner, Andrea, Thorpe, Alan, and Yamaji, Moeka

Published
2020

8. Earth Virtualization Engines (EVE)

Author

Stevens, Bjorn, Adami, Stefan, Ali, Tariq, Anzt, Hartwig, Aslan, Zafer, Attinger, Sabine, Bäck, Jaana, Baehr, Johanna, Bauer, Peter, Bernier, Natacha, Bishop, Bob, Bockelmann, Hendryk, Bony, Sandrine, Brasseur, Guy, Bresch, David N., Breyer, Sean, Brunet, Gilbert, Buttigieg, Pier Luigi, Cao, Junji, Castet, Christelle, Cheng, Yafang, Dey Choudhury, Ayantika, Coen, Deborah, Crewell, Susanne, Dabholkar, Atish, Dai, Qing, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Durran, Dale, El Gaidi, Ayoub, Ewen, Charlie, Exarchou, Eleftheria, Eyring, Veronika, Falkinhoff, Florencia, Farrell, David, Forster, Piers M., Frassoni, Ariane, Frauen, Claudia, Fuhrer, Oliver, Gani, Shahzad, Gerber, Edwin, Goldfarb, Debra, Grieger, Jens, Gruber, Nicolas, Hazeleger, Wilco, Herken, Rolf, Hewitt, Chris, Hoefler, Torsten, Hsu, Huang Hsiung, Jacob, Daniela, Jahn, Alexandra, Jakob, Christian, Jung, Thomas, Kadow, Christopher, Kang, In Sik, Kang, Sarah, Kashinath, Karthik, Kleinen-Von Königslöw, Katharina, Klocke, Daniel, Kloenne, Uta, Klöwer, Milan, Kodama, Chihiro, Kollet, Stefan, Kölling, Tobias, Kontkanen, Jenni, Kopp, Steve, Koran, Michal, Kulmala, Markku, Lappalainen, Hanna, Latifi, Fakhria, Lawrence, Bryan, Lee, June Yi, Lejeun, Quentin, Lessig, Christian, Li, Chao, Lippert, Thomas, Luterbacher, Jürg, Manninen, Pekka, Marotzke, Jochem, Matsouoka, Satoshi, Merchant, Charlotte, Messmer, Peter, Michel, Gero, Michielsen, Kristel, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Müller, Jens, Munir, Ramsha, Narayanasetti, Sandeep, Ndiaye, Ousmane, Nobre, Carlos, Oberg, Achim, Oki, Riko, Özkan-Haller, Tuba, Palmer, Tim, Posey, Stan, Prein, Andreas, Primus, Odessa, Pritchard, Mike, Pullen, Julie, Putrasahan, Dian, Quaas, Johannes, Raghavan, Krishnan, Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam, Rapp, Markus, Rauser, Florian, Reichstein, Markus, Revi, Aromar, Saluja, Sonakshi, Satoh, Masaki, Schemann, Vera, Schemm, Sebastian, Schnadt Poberaj, Christina, Schulthess, Thomas, Senior, Cath, Shukla, Jagadish, Singh, Manmeet, Slingo, Julia, Sobel, Adam, Solman, Silvina, Spitzer, Jenna, Stier, Philip, Stocker, Thomas, Strock, Sarah, Su, Hang, Taalas, Petteri, Taylor, John, Tegtmeier, Susann, Teutsch, Georg, Tompkins, Adrian, Ulbrich, Uwe, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wu, Chien Ming, Xu, Hao, Zaki, Najibullah, Zanna, Laure, Zhou, Tianjun, Ziemen, Florian, Stevens, Bjorn, Adami, Stefan, Ali, Tariq, Anzt, Hartwig, Aslan, Zafer, Attinger, Sabine, Bäck, Jaana, Baehr, Johanna, Bauer, Peter, Bernier, Natacha, Bishop, Bob, Bockelmann, Hendryk, Bony, Sandrine, Brasseur, Guy, Bresch, David N., Breyer, Sean, Brunet, Gilbert, Buttigieg, Pier Luigi, Cao, Junji, Castet, Christelle, Cheng, Yafang, Dey Choudhury, Ayantika, Coen, Deborah, Crewell, Susanne, Dabholkar, Atish, Dai, Qing, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Durran, Dale, El Gaidi, Ayoub, Ewen, Charlie, Exarchou, Eleftheria, Eyring, Veronika, Falkinhoff, Florencia, Farrell, David, Forster, Piers M., Frassoni, Ariane, Frauen, Claudia, Fuhrer, Oliver, Gani, Shahzad, Gerber, Edwin, Goldfarb, Debra, Grieger, Jens, Gruber, Nicolas, Hazeleger, Wilco, Herken, Rolf, Hewitt, Chris, Hoefler, Torsten, Hsu, Huang Hsiung, Jacob, Daniela, Jahn, Alexandra, Jakob, Christian, Jung, Thomas, Kadow, Christopher, Kang, In Sik, Kang, Sarah, Kashinath, Karthik, Kleinen-Von Königslöw, Katharina, Klocke, Daniel, Kloenne, Uta, Klöwer, Milan, Kodama, Chihiro, Kollet, Stefan, Kölling, Tobias, Kontkanen, Jenni, Kopp, Steve, Koran, Michal, Kulmala, Markku, Lappalainen, Hanna, Latifi, Fakhria, Lawrence, Bryan, Lee, June Yi, Lejeun, Quentin, Lessig, Christian, Li, Chao, Lippert, Thomas, Luterbacher, Jürg, Manninen, Pekka, Marotzke, Jochem, Matsouoka, Satoshi, Merchant, Charlotte, Messmer, Peter, Michel, Gero, Michielsen, Kristel, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Müller, Jens, Munir, Ramsha, Narayanasetti, Sandeep, Ndiaye, Ousmane, Nobre, Carlos, Oberg, Achim, Oki, Riko, Özkan-Haller, Tuba, Palmer, Tim, Posey, Stan, Prein, Andreas, Primus, Odessa, Pritchard, Mike, Pullen, Julie, Putrasahan, Dian, Quaas, Johannes, Raghavan, Krishnan, Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam, Rapp, Markus, Rauser, Florian, Reichstein, Markus, Revi, Aromar, Saluja, Sonakshi, Satoh, Masaki, Schemann, Vera, Schemm, Sebastian, Schnadt Poberaj, Christina, Schulthess, Thomas, Senior, Cath, Shukla, Jagadish, Singh, Manmeet, Slingo, Julia, Sobel, Adam, Solman, Silvina, Spitzer, Jenna, Stier, Philip, Stocker, Thomas, Strock, Sarah, Su, Hang, Taalas, Petteri, Taylor, John, Tegtmeier, Susann, Teutsch, Georg, Tompkins, Adrian, Ulbrich, Uwe, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wu, Chien Ming, Xu, Hao, Zaki, Najibullah, Zanna, Laure, Zhou, Tianjun, and Ziemen, Florian

Abstract

To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.

Published
2024

9. Earth Virtualization Engines (EVE)

Author

Faculteit Geowetenschappen, Stevens, Bjorn, Adami, Stefan, Ali, Tariq, Anzt, Hartwig, Aslan, Zafer, Attinger, Sabine, Bäck, Jaana, Baehr, Johanna, Bauer, Peter, Bernier, Natacha, Bishop, Bob, Bockelmann, Hendryk, Bony, Sandrine, Brasseur, Guy, Bresch, David N., Breyer, Sean, Brunet, Gilbert, Buttigieg, Pier Luigi, Cao, Junji, Castet, Christelle, Cheng, Yafang, Dey Choudhury, Ayantika, Coen, Deborah, Crewell, Susanne, Dabholkar, Atish, Dai, Qing, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Durran, Dale, El Gaidi, Ayoub, Ewen, Charlie, Exarchou, Eleftheria, Eyring, Veronika, Falkinhoff, Florencia, Farrell, David, Forster, Piers M., Frassoni, Ariane, Frauen, Claudia, Fuhrer, Oliver, Gani, Shahzad, Gerber, Edwin, Goldfarb, Debra, Grieger, Jens, Gruber, Nicolas, Hazeleger, Wilco, Herken, Rolf, Hewitt, Chris, Hoefler, Torsten, Hsu, Huang Hsiung, Jacob, Daniela, Jahn, Alexandra, Jakob, Christian, Jung, Thomas, Kadow, Christopher, Kang, In Sik, Kang, Sarah, Kashinath, Karthik, Kleinen-Von Königslöw, Katharina, Klocke, Daniel, Kloenne, Uta, Klöwer, Milan, Kodama, Chihiro, Kollet, Stefan, Kölling, Tobias, Kontkanen, Jenni, Kopp, Steve, Koran, Michal, Kulmala, Markku, Lappalainen, Hanna, Latifi, Fakhria, Lawrence, Bryan, Lee, June Yi, Lejeun, Quentin, Lessig, Christian, Li, Chao, Lippert, Thomas, Luterbacher, Jürg, Manninen, Pekka, Marotzke, Jochem, Matsouoka, Satoshi, Merchant, Charlotte, Messmer, Peter, Michel, Gero, Michielsen, Kristel, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Müller, Jens, Munir, Ramsha, Narayanasetti, Sandeep, Ndiaye, Ousmane, Nobre, Carlos, Oberg, Achim, Oki, Riko, Özkan-Haller, Tuba, Palmer, Tim, Posey, Stan, Prein, Andreas, Primus, Odessa, Pritchard, Mike, Pullen, Julie, Putrasahan, Dian, Quaas, Johannes, Raghavan, Krishnan, Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam, Rapp, Markus, Rauser, Florian, Reichstein, Markus, Revi, Aromar, Saluja, Sonakshi, Satoh, Masaki, Schemann, Vera, Schemm, Sebastian, Schnadt Poberaj, Christina, Schulthess, Thomas, Senior, Cath, Shukla, Jagadish, Singh, Manmeet, Slingo, Julia, Sobel, Adam, Solman, Silvina, Spitzer, Jenna, Stier, Philip, Stocker, Thomas, Strock, Sarah, Su, Hang, Taalas, Petteri, Taylor, John, Tegtmeier, Susann, Teutsch, Georg, Tompkins, Adrian, Ulbrich, Uwe, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wu, Chien Ming, Xu, Hao, Zaki, Najibullah, Zanna, Laure, Zhou, Tianjun, Ziemen, Florian, Faculteit Geowetenschappen, Stevens, Bjorn, Adami, Stefan, Ali, Tariq, Anzt, Hartwig, Aslan, Zafer, Attinger, Sabine, Bäck, Jaana, Baehr, Johanna, Bauer, Peter, Bernier, Natacha, Bishop, Bob, Bockelmann, Hendryk, Bony, Sandrine, Brasseur, Guy, Bresch, David N., Breyer, Sean, Brunet, Gilbert, Buttigieg, Pier Luigi, Cao, Junji, Castet, Christelle, Cheng, Yafang, Dey Choudhury, Ayantika, Coen, Deborah, Crewell, Susanne, Dabholkar, Atish, Dai, Qing, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Durran, Dale, El Gaidi, Ayoub, Ewen, Charlie, Exarchou, Eleftheria, Eyring, Veronika, Falkinhoff, Florencia, Farrell, David, Forster, Piers M., Frassoni, Ariane, Frauen, Claudia, Fuhrer, Oliver, Gani, Shahzad, Gerber, Edwin, Goldfarb, Debra, Grieger, Jens, Gruber, Nicolas, Hazeleger, Wilco, Herken, Rolf, Hewitt, Chris, Hoefler, Torsten, Hsu, Huang Hsiung, Jacob, Daniela, Jahn, Alexandra, Jakob, Christian, Jung, Thomas, Kadow, Christopher, Kang, In Sik, Kang, Sarah, Kashinath, Karthik, Kleinen-Von Königslöw, Katharina, Klocke, Daniel, Kloenne, Uta, Klöwer, Milan, Kodama, Chihiro, Kollet, Stefan, Kölling, Tobias, Kontkanen, Jenni, Kopp, Steve, Koran, Michal, Kulmala, Markku, Lappalainen, Hanna, Latifi, Fakhria, Lawrence, Bryan, Lee, June Yi, Lejeun, Quentin, Lessig, Christian, Li, Chao, Lippert, Thomas, Luterbacher, Jürg, Manninen, Pekka, Marotzke, Jochem, Matsouoka, Satoshi, Merchant, Charlotte, Messmer, Peter, Michel, Gero, Michielsen, Kristel, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Müller, Jens, Munir, Ramsha, Narayanasetti, Sandeep, Ndiaye, Ousmane, Nobre, Carlos, Oberg, Achim, Oki, Riko, Özkan-Haller, Tuba, Palmer, Tim, Posey, Stan, Prein, Andreas, Primus, Odessa, Pritchard, Mike, Pullen, Julie, Putrasahan, Dian, Quaas, Johannes, Raghavan, Krishnan, Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam, Rapp, Markus, Rauser, Florian, Reichstein, Markus, Revi, Aromar, Saluja, Sonakshi, Satoh, Masaki, Schemann, Vera, Schemm, Sebastian, Schnadt Poberaj, Christina, Schulthess, Thomas, Senior, Cath, Shukla, Jagadish, Singh, Manmeet, Slingo, Julia, Sobel, Adam, Solman, Silvina, Spitzer, Jenna, Stier, Philip, Stocker, Thomas, Strock, Sarah, Su, Hang, Taalas, Petteri, Taylor, John, Tegtmeier, Susann, Teutsch, Georg, Tompkins, Adrian, Ulbrich, Uwe, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wu, Chien Ming, Xu, Hao, Zaki, Najibullah, Zanna, Laure, Zhou, Tianjun, and Ziemen, Florian

Published
2024

11. Comparing observed and modelled components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26° N

Author

Bryden, Harry, Beunk, Jordi, Drijfhout, Sybren, Hazeleger, Wilco, Mecking, Jennifer, Bryden, Harry, Beunk, Jordi, Drijfhout, Sybren, Hazeleger, Wilco, and Mecking, Jennifer

Abstract

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) allows the assessment of the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in climate models. While CMIP Phase 6 models display a large spread in AMOC strength, the multi-model mean strength agrees reasonably well with observed estimates from RAPID1, but this does not hold for the AMOC's various components. In CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6), the present-day AMOC is characterized by a lack of lower North Atlantic Deep Water (lNADW) due to the small scale of Greenland–Iceland–Scotland Ridge overflow and too much mixing. This is compensated for by increased recirculation in the subtropical gyre and more Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Deep-water circulation is dominated by a distinct deep western boundary current (DWBC) with minor interior recirculation compared with observations. The future decline in the AMOC of 7 Sv by 2100 under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) emission scenario is associated with decreased northward western boundary current transport in combination with reduced southward flow of upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW). In CMIP6, wind stress curl decreases with time by 14 % so that wind-driven thermocline recirculation in the subtropical gyre is reduced by 4 Sv (17 %) by 2100. The reduction in western boundary current transport of 11 Sv is more than the decrease in wind-driven gyre transport, indicating a decrease over time in the component of the Gulf Stream originating from the South Atlantic.

Published
2024

15. Western Europe is warming much faster than expected

Author

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Drijfhout, Sybren, van Ulden, Aad, Haarsma, Reindert, Sterl, Andreas, Severijns, Camiel, Hazeleger, Wilco, and Dijkstra, Henk

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to now could not be verified directly to observations on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due to random fluctuations, either in fast weather processes or in decadal climate fluctuations. In winter and spring, changes in atmospheric circulation are important; in spring and summer changes in soil moisture and cloud cover. A misrepresentation of the North Atlantic Current affects trends along the coast. Many of these processes continue to affect trends in projections for the 21st century. This implies that climate predictions for western Europe probably underestimate the effects of anthropogenic climate change., Comment: Figure 5 was the wrong file

Published
2008
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21. Digital Twin Earth: Lorentz Center @Oort workshop report, 13-16 February 2023

Author

Faculteit Geowetenschappen, Youth in Changing Cultural Contexts, Leerstoel Finkenauer, Hazeleger, Wilco, Eyring, Veronika, Finkenauer, Catrin, Lees, Mike, Stevens, Bjorn, Faculteit Geowetenschappen, Youth in Changing Cultural Contexts, Leerstoel Finkenauer, Hazeleger, Wilco, Eyring, Veronika, Finkenauer, Catrin, Lees, Mike, and Stevens, Bjorn

Published
2023

22. Leren van klimaatverandering

Author

Faculteit Geowetenschappen, Hazeleger, Wilco, Faculteit Geowetenschappen, and Hazeleger, Wilco

Published
2023

23. Comparing observed and modelled components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N.

Author

Bryden, Harry, Drijfhout, Sybren, Mecking, Jennifer, and Hazeleger, Wilco

Subjects
ATLANTIC meridional overturning circulation, GULF Stream, BOTTOM water (Oceanography)
Abstract

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) allows assessment of the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in climate models. While CMIP Phase 6 models display a large spread in AMOC strength by a factor of three, the multi-model mean strength agrees reasonably well with observed estimates from RAPID1, but this does not hold for its various components. In CMIP6 the present-day AMOC is characterised by a lack of lower North Atlantic Deep Water (lNADW), due to the small-scale of Greenland-Iceland-Scotland Ridge overflow and too much mixing. This is compensated by increased recirculation in the subtropical gyre and more Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Deep-water circulation is dominated by a distinct deep western boundary current (DWBC) with minor interior recirculation compared to observations. The future decline in the AMOC to 2100 of 7 Sv under a SSP5-8.5 scenario is associated with decreased northward western boundary current transport in combination with reduced southward flow of upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW). In CMIP6, wind stress curl decreases with time by 14 % so that the wind-driven thermocline recirculation in the subtropical gyre is reduced by 4 Sv (17 %) by 2100. The reduction in western boundary current transport of 11 Sv is more than the decrease in the wind-driven gyre transport suggesting a decrease over time in the component of the Gulf Stream originating in the South Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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31. EC-Earth : A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action

Author

Hazeleger, Wilco, Severijns, Camiel, Semmler, Tido, Ştefănescu, Simona, Yang, Shuting, Wang, Xueli, Wyser, Klaus, Dutra, Emanuel, Baldasano, José M., Bintanja, Richard, Bougeault, Philippe, Caballero, Rodrigo, Ekman, Annica M. L., Christensen, Jens H., van den Hurk, Bart, Jimenez, Pedro, Jones, Colin, Kållberg, Per, Koenigk, Torben, McGrath, Ray, Miranda, Pedro, van Noije, Twan, Palmer, Tim, Parodi, José A., Schmith, Torben, Selten, Frank, Storelvmo, Trude, Sterl, Andreas, Tapamo, Honoré, Vancoppenolle, Martin, Viterbo, Pedro, and Willén, Ulrika

Published
2010

39. Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

Author

Smith, Doug M., Scaife, Adam A., Boer, George J., Caian, Mihaela, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Guemas, Virginie, Hawkins, Ed, Hazeleger, Wilco, Hermanson, Leon, Ho, Chun Kit, Ishii, Masayoshi, Kharin, Viatcheslav, Kimoto, Masahide, Kirtman, Ben, Lean, Judith, Matei, Daniela, Merryfield, William J., Müller, Wolfgang A., Pohlmann, Holger, Rosati, Anthony, Wouters, Bert, and Wyser, Klaus

Published
2013
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41. Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs)

Author

Griffies, Stephen M., Biastoch, Arne, Böning, Claus, Bryan, Frank, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Chassignet, Eric P., England, Matthew H., Gerdes, Rüdiger, Haak, Helmuth, Hallberg, Robert W., Hazeleger, Wilco, Jungclaus, Johann, Large, William G., Madec, Gurvan, Pirani, Anna, Samuels, Bonita L., Scheinert, Markus, Gupta, Alex Sen, Severijns, Camiel A., Simmons, Harper L., Treguier, Anne Marie, Winton, Mike, Yeager, Stephen, and Yin, Jianjun

Published
2009
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47. Event-based storylines to address climate risk

Author

Sillmann, Jana, Shepherd, Theodore G., van den Hurk, Bart, Hazeleger, Wilco, Martius, Olivia, Slingo, Julia, and Zscheischler, Jakob

Abstract

The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model-based probabilistic climate change projections. Event-based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress-testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event-based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.

Published
2021

48. Extended-range arctic sea ice forecast with convolutional long short-Term memory networks

Author

Liu, Yang, Bogaardt, Laurens, Attema, Jisk, Hazeleger, Wilco, Liu, Yang, Bogaardt, Laurens, Attema, Jisk, and Hazeleger, Wilco

Abstract

Operational Arctic sea ice forecasts are of crucial importance to science and to society in the Arctic region. Currently, statistical and numerical climate models are widely used to generate the Arctic sea ice forecasts at weather time scales. Numerical models require near-real-Time input of relevant environmental conditions consistent with the model equations and they are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a deep learning approach, namely convolutional long short-Term memory networks (ConvLSTM), to forecast sea ice in the Barents Sea at weather to subseasonal time scales. This is an unsupervised learning approach. It makes use of historical records and it exploits the covariances between different variables, including spatial and temporal relations. With input fields from reanalysis data, we demonstrate that ConvLSTM is able to learn the variability of the Arctic sea ice and can forecast regional sea ice concentration skillfully at weekly to monthly time scales. It preserves the physical consistency between predictors and predictands, and generally outperforms forecasts with climatology, persistence, and a statistical model. Based on the known sources of predictability, sensitivity tests with different climate fields as input for learning were performed. The impact of different predictors on the quality of the forecasts are evaluated and we demonstrate that the surface energy budget components have a large impact on the predictability of sea ice at weather time scales. This method is a promising way to enhance operational Arctic sea ice forecasting in the near future.

Published
2021

49. Characterisation of Atlantic meridional overturning hysteresis using Langevin dynamics

Author

Van Den Berk, Jelle, Drijfhout, Sybren, Hazeleger, Wilco, Van Den Berk, Jelle, Drijfhout, Sybren, and Hazeleger, Wilco

Abstract

Hysteresis diagrams of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) under freshwater forcing from climate models of intermediate complexity are fitted to a simple model based on the Langevin equation. A total of six parameters are sufficient to quantitatively describe the collapses seen in these simulations. Reversing the freshwater forcing results in asymmetric behaviour that is less well captured and appears to require a more complicated model. The Langevin model allows for comparison between models that display an AMOC collapse. Differences between the climate models studied here are mainly due to the strength of the stable AMOC and the strength of the response to a freshwater forcing..

Published
2021

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