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Background: Clinical practice guidelines that help clinicians and patients to understand the magnitude of expected individual risks and benefits would help with patient-centered decision-making and prioritization of care. We assessed the net benefit from taking daily aspirin to estimate the individual and public health implications of a more individualized decision-making approach.Methods and Results: We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey representing all US persons aged 30 to 85 years with no history of myocardial infarction and applied a Markov model based on randomized evidence and published literature to estimate lifetime effects of aspirin treatment in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We found that treatment benefit varies greatly by an individual's cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Almost all adults have fewer major clinical events on aspirin, but for most, events prevented would be so rare that even a very small distaste for aspirin use would make treatment inappropriate. With minimal dislike of aspirin use (disutility, 0.005 QALY per year), only those with a 10-year cardiac event risk >6.1% would have a net benefit. A disutility of 0.01 QALY moves this benefit cut point to 10.6%. Multiple factors altered the absolute benefit of aspirin, but the strong relationship between CVD risk and magnitude of benefit was robust.Conclusions: The benefits of aspirin therapy depend substantially on an individual's risk of CVD and adverse treatment effects. Understanding who benefits from aspirin use and how much can help clinicians and patients to develop a more patient-centered approach to preventive therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Emergency departments (EDs) are experiencing increased patient volumes and serve as a source of care of last resort for uninsured patients. Common assumptions about the effect of uninsured patients on the ED often drive policy solutions.Objective: To compare common unsupported statements about uninsured patients presenting to the ED with the best available evidence on the topic.Data Sources: OVID search of MEDLINE and MEDLINE in-process citations from 1950 through September 19, 2008, using the terms (Emergency Medical Services OR Emergency Service, Hospital OR emergency department.mp OR emergency medicine.mp OR Emergency Medicine) AND (uninsured.mp OR medically uninsured OR uncompensated care OR indigent.mp OR uncompensated care.mp OR medical indigency).Study Selection: Of 526 articles identified, 127 (24%) met inclusion/exclusion criteria. Articles were included if they focused on the medical and surgical care of adult (aged 18 to <65 years) uninsured patients in emergency settings. Excluded articles involved pediatric or geriatric populations, psychiatric and dental illnesses, and non-patient care issues.Data Extraction: Statements about uninsured patients presenting for emergency care that appeared without citation or that were not based on data provided in the articles were identified using a qualitative descriptive approach based in grounded theory. Each assumption was then addressed separately in searches for supporting data in national data sets, administrative data, and peer-reviewed literature.Results: Among the 127 identified articles, 53 had at least 1 assumption about uninsured ED patients, with a mean of 3 assumptions per article. Common assumptions supported by the evidence include assumptions that increasing numbers of uninsured patients present to the ED and that uninsured patients lack access to primary care. Available data support the statement that care in the ED is more expensive than office-based care when appropriate, but this is true for all ED users, insured and uninsured. Available data do not support assumptions that uninsured patients are a primary cause of ED overcrowding, present with less acute conditions than insured patients, or seek ED care primarily for convenience.Conclusion: Some common assumptions regarding uninsured patients and their use of the ED are not well supported by current data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results of randomized clinical trials are the preferred 'evidence' for establishing the benefits and safety of medical treatments. We present evidence suggesting that the conventional approach to reporting clinical trials has fundamental flaws that can result in overlooking identifiable subgroups harmed by a treatment while underestimating benefits to others. A risk-stratified approach can dramatically reduce the chances of such errors. Since professional and economic incentives reward advocating treatments for as broad a patient population as possible, we suggest that payers and regulatory bodies might need to act to motivate prompt, routine adoption of risk-stratified assessments of medical treatments' safety and benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Black Americans with diabetes have a higher burden of illness and mortality than do white Americans. However, the extent to which differences in medical care processes and treatment intensity contribute to poorer diabetes outcomes is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess racial disparities in the quality of diabetes care processes, intermediate outcomes, and treatment intensity. METHODS: We conducted an observational study of 801 white and 115 black patients who completed the Diabetes Quality Improvement Project survey (response rate=72%) in 21 Veterans Affairs (VA) facilities using survey data; medical record information on receipt of diabetes services (A1c, low-density lipoprotein [LDL], nephropathy screen, and foot and dilated eye examinations), and intermediate outcomes (glucose control measured by A1c; cholesterol control measured by LDL; and achieved level of blood pressure); and pharmacy data on filled prescriptions. RESULTS: There were no racial differences in receipt of an A1c test or foot examination. Blacks were less likely than whites to have LDL checked in the past 2 years (72% vs. 80%, P<0.05) and to have a dilated eye examination (50% vs. 63%, P<0.01). Even after adjusting for patients' age, education, income, insulin use, diabetes self-management, duration, severity, comorbidities, and health services utilization, racial disparities in receipt of an LDL test and eye examination persisted. After taking into account the nested structure of the data using a random intercepts model, blacks remained significantly less likely to have LDL testing than whites who received care within the same facility (68% vs. 83%, P<0.01). In contrast, there were no longer differences in receipt of eye examinations, suggesting that black patients were more likely to be receiving care at facilities with overall lower rates of eye examinations. After adjusting for patient characteristics and facility effects, black patients were substantially more likely than whites to have poor cholesterol control (LDL > or =130) and blood pressure control (BP > or =140/90 mm Hg) (P<0.01). Among those with poor blood pressure and lipid control, blacks received as intensive treatment as whites for these conditions. CONCLUSIONS: We found racial disparities in some diabetes care process and intermediate outcome quality measures, but not in intensity of treatment for those patients with poor control. Disparities in receipt of eye examinations were the result of black patients being more likely to receive care at lower-performing facilities, whereas for other quality measures, racial disparities within facilities were substantial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: National performance measures monitor the proportion of diabetic patients with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels >/=130 mg/dL, but such simple intermediate outcomes measure poor control, not necessarily poor care. 'Tightly linked' quality measures define good quality either by a good intermediate outcome (LDL <130 mg/dL) or by evidence of appropriate responses to poor control (eg, starting or optimizing medications for high LDL or not doing so in the face of contraindications). OBJECTIVES: We examined hyperlipidemia therapy for patients with diabetes to determine the relative accuracy of quality assessment using simple intermediate outcome versus tightly linked quality measures. RESEARCH DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal cohort. SUBJECTS: A total of 1154 diabetic patients with an LDL test done between October 1, 1998, and March 31, 1999, in 2 large VA facilities. MEASURES: LDL levels, medication treatment, and explanations for poor quality. RESULTS: Although 27% (307 of 1154) of patients had an LDL >/=130 mg/dL using the simple intermediate outcome measure, only 13% (148 of 1154) were classified as having substandard quality using the tightly linked measure. Among the 159 reclassified to adequate quality, 117 had lipid-lowering medication started or increased within 6 months of an LDL >/=130 mg/dL, 8 were already on high-dose medication, 12 had a repeat LDL <130 mg/dL, and 22 had contraindications to treatment. CONCLUSION: Simple intermediate outcome measures can be an inaccurate reflection of true quality of care, and many patients classified as having substandard quality by 'poor control' might actually be receiving good quality of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Although patient diabetes self-management is a key determinant of health outcomes, there is little evidence on whether patients' own assessments of their self-management correlates with glycemic control and key aspects of high-quality diabetes care. We explored these associations in a nationwide sample of Veterans' Affairs (VA) patients with diabetes.Research Design and Methods: We abstracted information on achieved level of glycemic control (HbA(1c)) and diabetes processes of care (receipt of HbA(1c) test, eye examination, and nephropathy screen) from medical records of 1032 diabetic patients who received care from 21 VA facilities and had answered the Diabetes Quality Improvement Program survey in 2000. The survey included sociodemographic measures and a five-item scale assessing the patients' diabetes self-management (medication use, blood glucose monitoring, diet, exercise, and foot care [alpha = 0.68]). Using multivariable regression, we examined the associations of patients' reported self-management with HbA(1c) level and receipt of each diabetes process of care. We adjusted for diabetes severity and comorbidities, insulin use, age, ethnicity, income, education, use of VA services, and clustering at the facility level.Results: Higher patient evaluations of their diabetes self-management were significantly associated with lower HbA(1c) levels (P < 0.01) and receipt of diabetes services. Those in the 95th percentile for self-management had a mean HbA(1c) level of 7.3 (95% CI 6.4-8.3), whereas those in the 5th percentile had mean levels of 8.3 (7.4-9.2). For every 10-point increase in patients' ratings of their diabetes self-management, even after adjusting for number of outpatient visits, the odds of receiving an HbA(1c) test in the past year increased by 15% (4-27%), of receiving an eye examination increased by 16% (7-27%), and of receiving a nephropathy screen increased by 13% (2-26%).Conclusions: In this sample, patients' assessments of their diabetes self-care using a simple five-question instrument were significantly associated both with actual HbA(1c) control and with receiving recommended diabetes services. These findings reinforce the usefulness of patient evaluations of their own self-management for understanding and improving glycemic control. The mechanisms by which those patients who are more actively engaged in their diabetes self-care are also more likely to receive necessary services warrant further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Studies using physician implicit review have suggested that the number of deaths due to medical errors in US hospitals is extremely high. However, some have questioned the validity of these estimates.Objective: To examine the reliability of reviewer ratings of medical error and the implications of a death described as "preventable by better care" in terms of the probability of immediate and short-term survival if care had been optimal.Design: Retrospective implicit review of medical records from 1995-1996.Setting and Participants: Fourteen board-certified, trained internists used a previously tested structured implicit review instrument to conduct 383 reviews of 111 hospital deaths at 7 Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers, oversampling for markers previously found to be associated with high rates of preventable deaths. Patients considered terminally ill who received comfort care only were excluded.Main Outcome Measures: Reviewer estimates of whether deaths could have been prevented by optimal care (rated on a 5-point scale) and of the probability that patients would have lived to discharge or for 3 months or more if care had been optimal (rated from 0%-100%).Results: Similar to previous studies, almost a quarter (22.7%) of active-care patient deaths were rated as at least possibly preventable by optimal care, with 6.0% rated as probably or definitely preventable. Interrater reliability for these ratings was also similar to previous studies (0.34 for 2 reviewers). The reviewers' estimates of the percentage of patients who would have left the hospital alive had optimal care been provided was 6.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.4%-8.6%). However, after considering 3-month prognosis and adjusting for the variability and skewness of reviewers' ratings, clinicians estimated that only 0.5% (95% CI, 0.3%-0.7%) of patients who died would have lived 3 months or more in good cognitive health if care had been optimal, representing roughly 1 patient per 10 000 admissions to the study hospitals.Conclusions: Medical errors are a major concern regardless of patients' life expectancies, but our study suggests that previous interpretations of medical error statistics are probably misleading. Our data place the estimates of preventable deaths in context, pointing out the limitations of this means of identifying medical errors and assessing their potential implications for patient outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Physician profiling is widely used by many health care systems, but little is known about the reliability of commonly used profiling systems.Objectives: To determine the reliability of a set of physician performance measures for diabetes care, one of the most common conditions in medical practice, and to examine whether physicians could substantially improve their profiles by preferential patient selection.Design and Setting: Cohort study performed from 1990 to 1993 at 3 geographically and organizationally diverse sites, including a large staff-model health maintenance organization, an urban university teaching clinic, and a group of private-practice physicians in an urban area.Participants: A total of 3642 patients with type 2 diabetes cared for by 232 different physicians.Main Outcome Measures: Physician profiles for their patients' hospitalization and clinic visit rates, total laboratory resource utilization rate and level of glycemic control by average hemoglobin A1c level with and without detailed case-mix adjustment.Results: For profiles based on hospitalization rates, visit rates, laboratory utilization rates, and glycemic control, 4% or less of the overall variance was attributable to differences in physician practice and the reliability of the median physician's case-mix-adjusted profile was never better than 0.40. At this low level of physician effect, a physician would need to have more than 100 patients with diabetes in a panel for profiles to have a reliability of 0.80 or better (while more than 90% of all primary care physicians at the health maintenance organization had fewer than 60 patients with diabetes). For profiles of glycemic control, high outlier physicians could dramatically improve their physician profile simply by pruning from their panel the 1 to 3 patients with the highest hemoglobin A1c levels during the prior year. This advantage from gaming could not be prevented by even detailed case-mix adjustment.Conclusions: Physician "report cards" for diabetes, one of the highest-prevalence conditions in medical practice, were unable to detect reliably true practice differences within the 3 sites studied. Use of individual physician profiles may foster an environment in which physicians can most easily avoid being penalized by avoiding or deselecting patients with high prior cost, poor adherence, or response to treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several recent studies have explored gender differences in medical care that are not attributable to clinical characteristics. At an 880-bed teaching hospital between July 1987 and June 1990, we studied the importance of gender on two measures of hospital care: length of stay and ancillary service use. The latter was measured on a relative value unit (RVU) scale, based on an estimation of direct cost dollars. Neither mean age nor in-hospital mortality differed between the 9,102 women and 10,285 men. After case-mix adjustment, women stayed in the hospital 0.22 days longer than men (p = 0.01) but consumed 67 fewer RVUs (p = 0.01). This RVU difference dissolved when intensive care unit (ICU) stays were eliminated; men were 1.13 times more likely (95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.19) to be placed in the ICU. Being married shortened length of stay and women were less likely to be married (51% vs. 68%; p < 0.001), but even within marital status subgroups women remained in the hospital longer than men. Whether this longer length of stay and less technologically intensive care for women reflects a difference in illness severity or physician gender bias requires further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been demonstrated that patients enrolled in clinical trials frequently have a large degree of variation in their baseline risk for the outcome of interest. Thus, some have suggested that clinical trial results should routinely be stratified by outcome risk using risk models, since the summary results may otherwise be misleading. However, variation in competing risk is another dimension of risk heterogeneity that may also underlie treatment effect heterogeneity. Understanding the effects of competing risk heterogeneity may be especially important for pragmatic comparative effectiveness trials, which seek to include traditionally excluded patients, such as the elderly or complex patients with multiple comorbidities. Indeed, the observed effect of an intervention is dependent on the ratio of outcome risk to competing risk, and these risks - which may or may not be correlated - may vary considerably in patients enrolled in a trial. Further, the effects of competing risk on treatment effect heterogeneity can be amplified by even a small degree of treatment related harm. Stratification of trial results along both the competing and the outcome risk dimensions may be necessary if pragmatic comparative effectiveness trials are to provide the clinically useful information their advocates intend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVES: Little is known regarding the amount of time spent by unpaid caregivers providing help to elderly individuals for disabilities associated with diabetes mellitus (DM). We sought to obtain nationally representative estimates of the time, and associated cost, of informal caregiving provided to elderly individuals with diabetes, and to determine the complications of DM that contribute most significantly to the subsequent need for informal care. METHODS: We estimated multivariable regression models using data from the 1993 Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old Study, a nationally representative survey of people aged 70 or older (N = 7,443), to determine the weekly hours of informal caregiving and imputed cost of caregiver time for community-dwelling elderly individuals with and without a diagnosis of DM. RESULTS: Those without DM received an average of 6.1 hr per week of informal care, those with DM taking no medications received 10.5 hr, those with DM taking oral medications received 10.1 hr, and those with DM taking insulin received 14.4 hr of care (p <.01). Disabilities related to heart disease, stroke, and visual impairment were important predictors of diabetes-related informal care. The total cost of informal caregiving for elderly individuals with diabetes in the United States was between $3 and $6 billion per year, similar to previous estimates of the annual paid long-term care costs attributable to DM. DISCUSSION: Diabetes imposes a substantial burden on elderly individuals, their families, and society, both through increased rates of disability and the significant time that informal caregivers must spend helping address the associated functional limitations. Future evaluations of the costs of diabetes, and the cost-effectiveness of diabetes interventions, should consider the significant informal caregiving costs associated with the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The federal Privacy Rule, implemented in the United States in 2003, as part of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA), created new restrictions on the release of medical information for research. Many believe that its restrictions have fallen disproportionately on researchers prompting some to call for changes to the Rule. Here we ask what patients think about researchers' access to medical records, and what influences these opinions. A sample of 217 patients from 4 Veteran Affairs (VA) facilities deliberated in small groups at each location with the opportunity to question experts and inform themselves about privacy issues related to medical records research. After extensive deliberation, these patients were united in their inclination to share their medical records for research. Yet they were also united in their recommendations to institute procedures that would give them more control over whether and how their medical records are used for research. We integrated qualitative and quantitative results to derive a better understanding of this apparent paradox. Our findings can best be presented as answers to questions related to five dimensions of trust: Patients' trust in VA researchers was the most powerful determinant of the kind of control they want over their medical records. More specifically, those who had lower trust in VA researchers were more likely to recommend a more stringent process for obtaining individual consent. Insights on the critical role of trust suggest actions that researchers and others can take to more fully engage patients in research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To compare changes in cognitive trajectories after stroke between younger (18-64) and older (65+) adults, accounting for pre-stroke cognitive trajectories., Materials and Methods: Pooled cohort study using individual participant data from 3 US cohorts (1971-2019), the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities Study (ARIC), Framingham Offspring Study (FOS), and REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke Study (REGARDS). Linear mixed effect models evaluated the association between age and the initial change (intercept) and rate of change (slope) in cognition after compared to before stroke. Outcomes were global cognition (primary), memory and executive function., Results: We included 1,292 participants with stroke; 197 younger (47.2 % female, 32.5 % Black race) and 1,095 older (50.2 % female, 46.4 % Black race). Median (IQR) age at stroke was 59.7 (56.6-61.7) (younger group) and 75.2 (70.5-80.2) years (older group). Compared to the young, older participants had greater declines in global cognition (-1.69 point [95 % CI, -2.82 to -0.55] greater), memory (-1.05 point [95 % CI, -1.92 to -0.17] greater), and executive function (-3.72 point [95 % CI, -5.23 to -2.21] greater) initially after stroke. Older age was associated with faster declines in global cognition (-0.18 points per year [95 % CI, -0.36 to -0.01] faster) and executive function (-0.16 [95 % CI, -0.26 to -0.06] points per year for every 10 years of higher age), but not memory (-0.006 [95 % CI, -0.15 to 0.14]), after compared to before stroke., Conclusion: Older age was associated with greater post-stroke cognitive declines, accounting for differences in pre-stroke cognitive trajectories between the old and the young., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest Authors report funding from the NIH (Springer, Briceno, Burke, Aparicio), Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (Burke), Alzheimer's Association (Aparicio), American Academy of Neurology (Aparicio), and the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Intramural Research Program (Gottesman)., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background: The large and increasing number of adults living with dementia is a pressing societal priority, which may be partially mitigated through improved population-level blood pressure (BP) control. We explored how tighter population-level BP control affects the incidence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and dementia., Methods: Using an open-source ASCVD and dementia simulation analysis platform, the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model, we evaluated how optimal implementation of 2 BP treatments based on the Eighth Joint National Committee recommendations and SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) protocol would influence population-level ASCVD events, global cognitive performance, and all-cause dementia. We simulated 3 populations (usual care, Eighth Joint National Committee based, SPRINT based) using nationally representative data to annually update risk factors and assign ASCVD events, global cognitive performance scores, and dementia, applying different BP treatments in each population. We tabulated total ASCVD events, global cognitive performance, all-cause dementia, optimal brain health, and years lived in each state per population., Results: Optimal implementation of SPRINT-based BP treatment strategy, compared with usual care, reduced ASCVD events in the United States by ≈77 000 per year and produced 0.4 more years of stroke- or myocardial infarction-free survival when averaged across all Americans. Population-level gains in years lived free of ASCVD events were greater for SPRINT-based than Eighth Joint National Committee-based treatment. Survival and years spent with optimal brain health improved with optimal SPRINT-based BP treatment implementation versus usual care: the average patient with hypertension lived 0.19 additional years and 0.3 additional years in optimal brain health. SPRINT-based BP treatment increased the number of years lived without dementia (by an average of 0.13 years/person with hypertension), but increased the total number of individuals with dementia, mainly through more adults surviving to advanced ages., Conclusions: Tighter BP control likely benefits most individuals but is unlikely to reduce dementia prevalence and might even increase the number of older adults living with dementia., Competing Interests: Disclosures None.

Strategies to prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are urgently needed, and blood pressure (BP) management is a promising strategy. Yet the effects of different BP control strategies across the life course on AD/ADRD are unknown. Randomized trials may be infeasible due to prolonged follow-up and large sample sizes. Simulation analysis is a practical approach to estimating these effects using the best available existing data. However, existing simulation frameworks cannot estimate the effects of BP control on both dementia and cardiovascular disease. This manuscript describes the design principles, implementation details, and population-level validation of a novel population-health microsimulation framework, the MIchigan ChROnic Disease SIMulation (MICROSIM), for The Effect of Lower Blood Pressure over the Life Course on Late-life Cognition in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites (BP-COG) study of the effect of BP levels over the life course on dementia and cardiovascular disease. MICROSIM is an agent-based Monte Carlo simulation designed using computer programming best practices. MICROSIM estimates annual vascular risk factor levels and transition probabilities in all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults 18+ using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). MICROSIM models changes in risk factors over time, cognition and dementia using changes from a pooled dataset of individual participant data from 6 US prospective cardiovascular cohort studies. Cardiovascular risks were estimated using a widely used risk model and BP treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. MICROSIM is an extensible, open-source framework designed to estimate the population-level impact of different BP management strategies and reproduces US population-level estimates of BP and other vascular risk factors levels, their change over time, and incident all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Burke et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: It is unclear how post-stroke cognitive trajectories differ by stroke type and ischemic stroke subtype. We studied associations between stroke types (ischemic, hemorrhagic), ischemic stroke subtypes (cardioembolic, large artery atherosclerotic, lacunar/small vessel, cryptogenic/other determined etiology), and post-stroke cognitive decline., Methods: This pooled cohort analysis from four US cohort studies (1971-2019) identified 1,143 dementia-free individuals with acute stroke during follow-up: 1,061 (92.8%) ischemic, 82 (7.2%) hemorrhagic, 49.9% female, 30.8% Black. Median age at stroke was 74.1 (IQR, 68.6, 79.3) years. Outcomes were change in global cognition (primary) and changes in executive function and memory (secondary). Outcomes were standardized as T-scores (mean [SD], 50 [10]); a 1-point difference represents a 0.1-SD difference in cognition. Median follow-up for the primary outcome was 6.0 (IQR, 3.2, 9.2) years. Linear mixed-effects models estimated changes in cognition after stroke., Results: On average, the initial post-stroke global cognition score was 50.78 points (95% CI, 49.52, 52.03) in ischemic stroke survivors and did not differ in hemorrhagic stroke survivors (difference, -0.17 points [95% CI, -1.64, 1.30]; P =0.82) after adjusting for demographics and pre-stroke cognition. On average, ischemic stroke survivors showed declines in global cognition, executive function, and memory. Post-stroke declines in global cognition, executive function, and memory did not differ between hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke survivors. 955 ischemic strokes had subtypes: 200 (20.9%) cardioembolic, 77 (8.1%) large artery atherosclerotic, 207 (21.7%) lacunar/small vessel, 471 (49.3%) cryptogenic/other determined etiology. On average, small vessel stroke survivors showed declines in global cognition and memory, but not executive function. Initial post-stroke cognitive scores and cognitive declines did not differ between small vessel survivors and survivors of other ischemic stroke subtypes. Post-stroke vascular risk factor levels did not attenuate associations., Conclusion: Stroke survivors had cognitive decline in multiple domains. Declines did not differ by stroke type or ischemic stroke subtype.

Importance: Stroke risk varies by systolic blood pressure (SBP), race, and ethnicity. The association between cumulative mean SBP and incident stroke type is unclear, and whether this association differs by race and ethnicity remains unknown., Objective: To examine the association between cumulative mean SBP and first incident stroke among 3 major stroke types-ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH)-and explore how these associations vary by race and ethnicity., Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual participant data from 6 US longitudinal cohorts (January 1, 1971, to December 31, 2019) were pooled. The analysis was performed from January 1, 2022, to January 2, 2024. The median follow-up was 21.6 (IQR, 13.6-31.8) years., Exposure: Time-dependent cumulative mean SBP., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was time from baseline visit to first incident stroke. Secondary outcomes consisted of time to first incident IS, ICH, and SAH., Results: Among 40 016 participants, 38 167 who were 18 years or older at baseline with no history of stroke and at least 1 SBP measurement before the first incident stroke were included in the analysis. Of these, 54.0% were women; 25.0% were Black, 8.9% were Hispanic of any race, and 66.2% were White. The mean (SD) age at baseline was 53.4 (17.0) years and the mean (SD) SBP at baseline was 136.9 (20.4) mm Hg. A 10-mm Hg higher cumulative mean SBP was associated with a higher risk of overall stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.18-1.23]), IS (HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]), and ICH (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.25-1.38]) but not SAH (HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 0.99-1.29]; P = .06). Compared with White participants, Black participants had a higher risk of IS (HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.09-1.33]) and ICH (HR, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.30-2.13]) and Hispanic participants of any race had a higher risk of SAH (HR, 3.81 [95% CI, 1.29-11.22]). There was no consistent evidence that race and ethnicity modified the association of cumulative mean SBP with first incident stroke and stroke type., Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that cumulative mean SBP was associated with incident stroke type, but the associations did not differ by race and ethnicity. Culturally informed stroke prevention programs should address modifiable risk factors such as SBP along with social determinants of health and structural inequities in society.

Aims: Most adults presenting in primary care with chest pain symptoms will not receive a diagnosis ('unattributed' chest pain) but are at increased risk of cardiovascular events. To assess within patients with unattributed chest pain, risk factors for cardiovascular events and whether those at greatest risk of cardiovascular disease can be ascertained by an existing general population risk prediction model or by development of a new model., Methods and Results: The study used UK primary care electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to admitted hospitalizations. Study population was patients aged 18 plus with recorded unattributed chest pain 2002-2018. Cardiovascular risk prediction models were developed with external validation and comparison of performance to QRISK3, a general population risk prediction model. There were 374 917 patients with unattributed chest pain in the development data set. The strongest risk factors for cardiovascular disease included diabetes, atrial fibrillation, and hypertension. Risk was increased in males, patients of Asian ethnicity, those in more deprived areas, obese patients, and smokers. The final developed model had good predictive performance (external validation c-statistic 0.81, calibration slope 1.02). A model using a subset of key risk factors for cardiovascular disease gave nearly identical performance. QRISK3 underestimated cardiovascular risk., Conclusion: Patients presenting with unattributed chest pain are at increased risk of cardiovascular events. It is feasible to accurately estimate individual risk using routinely recorded information in the primary care record, focusing on a small number of risk factors. Patients at highest risk could be targeted for preventative measures., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: None declared., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)