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Strategies to prevent or delay Alzheimers disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are urgently needed, and blood pressure (BP) management is a promising strategy. Yet the effects of different BP control strategies across the life course on AD/ADRD are unknown. Randomized trials may be infeasible due to prolonged follow-up and large sample sizes. Simulation analysis is a practical approach to estimating these effects using the best available existing data. However, existing simulation frameworks cannot estimate the effects of BP control on both dementia and cardiovascular disease. This manuscript describes the design principles, implementation details, and population-level validation of a novel population-health microsimulation framework, the MIchigan ChROnic Disease SIMulation (MICROSIM), for The Effect of Lower Blood Pressure over the Life Course on Late-life Cognition in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites (BP-COG) study of the effect of BP levels over the life course on dementia and cardiovascular disease. MICROSIM is an agent-based Monte Carlo simulation designed using computer programming best practices. MICROSIM estimates annual vascular risk factor levels and transition probabilities in all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults 18+ using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). MICROSIM models changes in risk factors over time, cognition and dementia using changes from a pooled dataset of individual participant data from 6 US prospective cardiovascular cohort studies. Cardiovascular risks were estimated using a widely used risk model and BP treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. MICROSIM is an extensible, open-source framework designed to estimate the population-level impact of different BP management strategies and reproduces US population-level estimates of BP and other vascular risk factors levels, their change over time, and incident all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality.

BackgroundEthnic differences in cognitive decline have been reported. Whether they can be explained by differences in systolic blood pressure (SBP) is uncertain.ObjectiveDetermine whether cumulative mean SBP levels explain differences in cognitive decline between Hispanic and White individuals.MethodsPooled cohort study of individual participant data from six cohorts (1971-2017). The present study reports results on SBP and cognition among Hispanic and White individuals. Outcomes were changes in global cognition (GC) (primary), executive function (EF) (secondary), and memory standardized as t-scores (mean [SD], 50 [10]); a 1-point difference represents a 0.1 SD difference in cognition. Median follow-up was 7.7 (Q1-Q3, 5.2-20.1) years.ResultsWe included 24,570 participants free of stroke and dementia: 2,475 Hispanic individuals (median age, cumulative mean SBP at first cognitive assessment, 67 years, 132.5 mmHg; 40.8% men) and 22,095 White individuals (60 years,134 mmHg; 47.3% men). Hispanic individuals had slower declines in GC, EF, and memory than White individuals when all six cohorts were examined. Two cohorts recruited Hispanic individuals by design. In a sensitivity analysis, Hispanic individuals in these cohorts had faster decline in GC, similar decline in EF, and slower decline in memory than White individuals. Higher time-varying cumulative mean SBP was associated with faster declines in GC, EF, and memory in all analyses. After adjusting for time-varying cumulative mean SBP, differences in cognitive slopes between Hispanic and White individuals did not change.ConclusionWe found no evidence that cumulative mean SBP differences explained differences in cognitive decline between Hispanic and White individuals.

OBJECTIVES: We have shown that, in a randomized trial comparing adherence to different colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies, participants assigned to either fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) or given a choice between FOBT and colonoscopy had significantly higher adherence than those assigned to colonoscopy during the first year. However, how adherence to screening changes over time is unknown. METHODS: In this trial, 997 participants were cluster randomized to one of the three screening strategies: (i) FOBT, (ii) colonoscopy, or (iii) a choice between FOBT and colonoscopy. Research assistants helped participants to complete testing only in the first year. Adherence to screening was defined as completion of three FOBT cards in each of 3 years after enrollment or completion of colonoscopy within the first year of enrollment. The primary outcome was adherence to assigned strategy over 3 years. Additional outcomes included identification of sociodemographic factors associated with adherence. RESULTS: Participants assigned to annual FOBT completed screening at a significantly lower rate over 3 years (14%) than those assigned to colonoscopy (38%, P

Author(s): Sanjay Basu, Jeremy B. Sussman, Joseph Rigdon, Lauren Steimle, Brian T. Denton, Rodney A. Hayward There is an error in the caption for Table 2. Please see correct Table [...]