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BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

Background: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. Methods: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. Results: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. Conclusions: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Background and purpose: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Method(s): In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Result(s): The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score >1.5). Conclusion(s): Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.Copyright © 2022 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behal

Background and ObjectivesThe severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding the determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, UV B radiation (UVB) exposure, and the severity of MS.MethodsThis observational study used the MSBase registry data. The included patients met the 2005 or 2010 McDonald diagnostic criteria for MS and had a minimum dataset recorded in the registry (date of birth, sex, clinic location, date of MS symptom onset, disease phenotype at baseline and censoring, and >=1 Expanded Disability Status Scale score recorded). The latitude of each study center and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 years and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Disease severity was quantified with Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS). Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB, and MSSS.ResultsThe 46,128 patients who contributed 453,208 visits and a cumulative follow-up of 351,196 patient-years (70% women, mean age 39.2 +/- 12 years, resident between latitudes 19degree35' and 56degree16') were included in this study. Latitude showed a nonlinear association with MS severity. In latitudes <40degree, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (beta = 0.08, 95% CI 0.04-0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40degree (beta =-0.02, 95% CI-0.06 to 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 years (beta =-0.5, 95% CI-0.6 to 0.4) and 18 years (beta =-0.6, 95% CI-0.7 to 0.4), as well as with lower lifetime UVB exposure

BACKGROUND: Patients with highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis inadequately responding to first-line therapies (interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, and teriflunomide, known collectively as "BRACETD") often switch to natalizumab or fingolimod. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to estimate the comparative effectiveness of switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD using real-world data and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching to natalizumab versus fingolimod using a United Kingdom (UK) third-party payer perspective. METHODS: Real-world data were obtained from MSBase for patients relapsing on BRACETD in the year before switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD. Three-way-multinomial-propensity-score-matched cohorts were identified, and comparisons between treatment groups were conducted for annualised relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M). Results were applied in a cost-effectiveness model over a lifetime horizon using a published Markov structure with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Other model parameters were obtained from the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available UK sources. RESULTS: The MSBase analysis found a significant reduction in ARR (rate ratio [RR] = 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.72; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.67; 95% CI 1.30-2.15; p < 0.001) for switching to natalizumab compared with BRACETD. For switching to fingolimod, the reduction in ARR (RR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.81-1.03; p = 0.133) and increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 0.99-1.72; p = 0.058) compared with BRACETD were not significant. Switching to natalizumab was associated with a significant reduction in ARR (RR = 0.70; 95% CI 0.62-0.79; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.01-1.62; p = 0.040) compared to switching to fingolimod. No evidence of difference in

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ≥7.0 represents the requirement for a wheelchair. Here we (i) assess the effect of ocrelizumab on time to EDSS ≥7.0 over the ORATORIO (NCT01194570) double-blind and extended controlled periods (DBP+ECP), (ii) quantify likely long-term benefits by extrapolating results, and (iii) assess the plausibility of extrapolations using an independent real-world cohort (MSBase registry; ACTRN12605000455662). METHODS: Post hoc analyses assessing time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 in two cohorts of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (baseline EDSS 3.0-6.5) were investigated in ORATORIO and MSBase. RESULTS: In the ORATORIO DBP+ECP, ocrelizumab reduced the risk of 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 (hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31-0.92; p = 0.022). Extrapolated median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.1 and 19.2 years for placebo and ocrelizumab, respectively (7.1-year delay [95% CI: -4.3 to 18.4]). In MSBase, the median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo, ocrelizumab significantly delayed time to 24-week confirmed wheelchair requirement in ORATORIO. The plausibility of the extrapolated median time to reach this milestone in the placebo group was supported by observed real-world data from MSBase. Extrapolated benefits for ocrelizumab over placebo could represent a truly meaningful delay in loss of ambulation and independence.

BACKGROUND: The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability. OBJECTIVE: To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS. METHODS: The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C. RESULTS: A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model. CONCLUSION: Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Background: Previous studies in multiple sclerosis (MS) showed that therapeutic inertia (TI) affects 60-90% of neurologists and up to 25% of daily treatment decisions. The objective of this study was to determine the most common factors and attribute levels associated with decisions to treatment escalation in an international study in MS care.Methods: 300 neurologists with MS expertise from 20 countries were invited to participate. Participants were presented with 12 pairs of simulated MS patient profiles described by 13 clinically relevant factors. We used disaggregated discrete choice experiments to estimate the weight of factors and attributes affecting physicians' decisions when considering treatment selection. Participants were asked to select the ideal candidate for treat-ment escalation from modest to higher-efficacy therapies.Results: Overall, 229 neurologists completed the study (completion rate: 76.3%). The top 3 weighted factors associated with treatment escalation were: previous relapses (20%), baseline expanded disability status scale [EDSS] (18%), and MRI activity (13%). Patient demographics and desire for pregnancy had a modest influence (Conclusions: Our results provide critical information on factors influencing neurologists' treatment decisions and should be applied to continuing medical education strategies.

Background: Natalizumab and fingolimod are used as high-efficacy treatments in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis. Several observational studies comparing these two drugs have shown variable results, using different methods to control treatment indication bias and manage censoring. The objective of this empirical study was to elucidate the impact of methods of causal inference on the results of comparative effectiveness studies. Methods: Data from three observational multiple sclerosis registries (MSBase, the Danish MS Registry and French OFSEP registry) were combined. Four clinical outcomes were studied. Propensity scores were used to match or weigh the compared groups, allowing for estimating average treatment effect for treated or average treatment effect for the entire population. Analyses were conducted both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol frameworks. The impact of the positivity assumption was also assessed. Results: Overall, 5,148 relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis patients were included. In this well-powered sample, the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates overlapped widely. Propensity scores weighting and propensity scores matching procedures led to consistent results. Some differences were observed between average treatment effect for the entire population and average treatment effect for treated estimates. Intention-to-treat analyses were more conservative than per-protocol analyses. The most pronounced irregularities in outcomes and propensity scores were introduced by violation of the positivity assumption. Conclusions: This applied study elucidates the influence of methodological decisions on the results of comparative effectiveness studies of treatments for multiple sclerosis. According to our results, there are no material differences between conclusions obtained with propensity scores matching or propensity scores weighting given that a study is sufficiently powered, models are correctly specified and positivity assumption is

Background: Our current understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies is limited. Objective(s): To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in MS varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Method(s): Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models (MSMs) were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. MSMs were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23 687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMT experienced 20% greater chance of disability improvement [HR 1.20 (95% CI 1.0-1.5)], 47% lower risk of disability worsening [HR 0.53 (0.39-0.71)] and 51% reduction in relapses [HR 0.49 (0.43-0.55)]. The effect of DMT on relapses and EDSS worsening was attenuated with longer MS duration and higher prior relapse rate. The effect of DMT on EDSS improvement and relapses was more evident in low EDSS categories. DMT was associated with 51% EDSS improvement in patients without new MRI lesions [HR 1.51 (1.00-2.28)] compared to 4% in those with MRI activity [HR 1.04 (0.88-1.24)]. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMT was associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR 0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR 0.58 (CI 0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR 1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR 1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, pro

Objective: To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Background(s): Our understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of MS therapies is limited. Design/Methods: Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Models were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence [HR=0.52 (0.44-0.61)], 48% lower risk of disability worsening [HR=0.52 (0.38-0.71)] and 33% greater chance of disability improvement [HR=1.33 (95%CI 1.0-1.5)]. The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The effect of DMTs on reducing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and in patients with prior cerebral MRI activity. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMTs were associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR=0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR=0.58 (0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR=1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR=1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, progression of disability, and increased chance of recovery from disability. The DMTs are most effective among patients with lower

Background: Some cohort studies have reported similar onset age and disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive MS (PPMS, SPMS); others have reported later onset and faster disability accrual in SPMS. Comparisons are complicated by differences in baseline disability and exposure to disease-modifying therapies (DMT), and by lack of a standardized definition of SPMS. Objective(s): We compared hazards of disability accrual in PPMS and SPMS patients from the MSBase cohort using multivariable Cox models, applying validated diagnostic criteria for SPMS (Lorscheider et al., Brain 2016). Method(s): Inclusion required adult-onset progressive MS; >= 3 recorded Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores; and, for SPMS, initial records with EDSS <= 3 to allow objective identification of SPMS conversion. Phenotypes were subgrouped as active (PPMS-A, SPMS-A) if >= 1 progressive-phase relapse was recorded, and inactive (PPMS-N, SPMS-N) otherwise. Disability accrual was defined by sustained EDSS increases confirmed over >= 6 months. Hazard ratios (HR) for disability accrual were obtained using Andersen-Gill Cox models, adjusted for sex and time-varying age, disability, visit frequency, and proportion of time on DMT or immunosuppressive therapy. Sensitivity analyses were performed using (1) PPMS and SPMS diagnosed since 1995, and (2) physician-diagnosed SPMS. Cumulative probability of reaching EDSS >= 7 (wheelchair required) was assessed (Kaplan-Meier). Result(s): 5461 patients were included (1257 PPMS-N; 1308 PPMS-A; 1731 SPMS-N; 1165 SPMS-A). Age at progression onset was older in SPMS than PPMS (47.2 +/- 10.2, vs. 41.5 +/- 10.7 [mean +/- SD]), and in the inactive subgroups of each phenotype. Hazard of disability accrual was decreased in SPMS relative to PPMS (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78-0.92); decreased by proportion of time on DMT (HR 0.99 per 10% increment; 0.98-0.99); and higher in males (1.18; 1.12-1.25). Relative to PPMS-N, hazard was decreased in SPMS-A (0.79; 0.71

OBJECTIVE: To investigate pregnancy-related disease activity in a contemporary multiple sclerosis (MS) cohort. METHODS: Using data from the MSBase Registry, we included pregnancies conceived after 31 Dec 2010 from women with relapsing-remitting MS or clinically isolated syndrome. Predictors of intrapartum relapse, and postpartum relapse and disability progression were determined by clustered logistic regression or Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: We included 1998 pregnancies from 1619 women with MS. Preconception annualized relapse rate (ARR) was 0.29 (95% CI 0.27-0.32), fell to 0.19 (0.14-0.24) in third trimester, and increased to 0.59 (0.51-0.67) in early postpartum. Among women who used fingolimod or natalizumab, ARR before pregnancy was 0.37 (0.28-0.49) and 0.29 (0.22-0.37), respectively, and increased during pregnancy. Intrapartum ARR decreased with preconception dimethyl fumarate use. ARR spiked after delivery across all DMT groups. Natalizumab continuation into pregnancy reduced the odds of relapse during pregnancy (OR 0.76 per month [0.60-0.95], p=0.017). DMT re-initiation with natalizumab protected against postpartum relapse (HR 0.11 [0.04-0.32], p<0.0001). Breastfeeding women were less likely to relapse (HR 0.61 [0.41-0.91], p=0.016). 5.6% of pregnancies were followed by confirmed disability progression, predicted by higher relapse activity in pregnancy and postpartum. CONCLUSION: Intrapartum and postpartum relapse probabilities increased among women with MS after natalizumab or fingolimod cessation. In women considered to be at high relapse risk, use of natalizumab before pregnancy and continued up to 34 weeks gestation, with early re-initiation after delivery is an effective option to minimize relapse risks. Strategies of DMT use have to be balanced against potential fetal/neonatal complications.

Objective: Using global MSBase registry, this study establishes 6-month confirmed disability progression events as indicators of long-term disability worsening suitable for use in randomized clinical trials in multiple sclerosis (MS). Background(s): Randomized clinical trials evaluate short-term treatment effect on disability in the form of 3-6-month confirmed disability progression, but whether these translate into long-term disability outcomes is unknown. Design/Methods: A Cox proportional hazards model identified associations between patients' demographic and clinical characteristics and the probability of recovery from disability progression events. The coefficients from this model were used to calculate a sustained progression score, which was evaluated in a validation cohort and applied to a trial cohort. Result(s): 902 patients (development cohort), patient characteristics at the time of progression associated with lower probability of subsequent improvement were age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.98), primary progressive (HR=0.37) and progressive-relapsing (HR=0.36) MS, expanded disability status scale score >=6 (HR=0.71) and its change from baseline (HR=0.67), number of affected functional system scores (HR=0.92) and pyramidal (HR=0.79) functional system score (p<0.05). The strength of the association with pyramidal score decreased with time (HR=1.01). A relapse within previous month (HR=1.46) and worsening in sensory functional system score (HR=1.17) were associated with higher probability of improvement after progression. The sustained progression score (range 0.39-4.79) in the validation cohort with 1,271 progression events, estimated a 53% lower chance of improvement for each unit increase in the score (HR=0.47). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 68%, 2: 79%, 3: 94%, 4: 100%. The progression scores were then applied to the CLARITY trial data. Conclusion(s): Estimate of the probability of disability progress