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Active fold-and-thrust belts create new landslide-prone slopes during tectonic deformation propagation. However, studies on landslide distribution in newly formed fold-and-thrust belts are limited. In this study, we present a new inventory of landslides in the Kura fold-and-thrust belt, a tectonically active, but relatively low-altitude southern margin of the Greater Caucasus. The area has been tectonically framed in the last ~2–3 Ma and is represented by folds and thrusts deforming Miocene to Quaternary sediments. Through satellite imagery analysis, we mapped nearly 1600 landslides, with a quarter currently active. While landslides cover <1 % of the area, they tend to cluster at higher elevations and in regions with relatively high local relief. Landslides predominantly occur in tectonically uplifted areas, affecting the highest and steepest parts of growing anticlines and the steep slopes of incising valleys intersecting active thrust faults. Based on observed landslide distribution in folds at different stages of development, we propose a conceptual model for the temporal evolution of landslide patterns in weak sediment-based fold-and-thrust belts: 1) In the initial stages, slow-moving slope deformations affect incipient thrust fronts. With the flanks of the growing anticline lacking sufficient steepness, landslides tend to concentrate in deep valleys intersecting the uplifting hanging walls. 2) With ongoing thrust uplift, growing and steepening anticlines become more prone to planar sliding when dip slopes exceed friction angle, and valley development creates additional dip slopes, resulting in widespread landslides. 3) In the final stage, erosional decay reduces topographic relief, leading to badland formation with gully erosion and decreased landslide occurrence.

Mailuu-Suu is a former uranium mining area in Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia) at the northern border of the Fergana Basin. This region is particularly prone to landslide hazards and, during the last 50 years, has experienced severe landslide disasters in the vicinity of numerous nuclear waste tailing dams. Due to its critical situation, the Mailuu-Suu region was and still is the target area for several risk assessment projects. This paper provides a brief review of previous studies, past landslide events and a discussion on possible future risk scenarios. Various aspects of landslide hazard and related impacts in the Mailuu-Suu Valley are analyzed in detail: landslide susceptibility, historical evolution of landslide activity, size-frequency relationship, river damming and flooding as well as impacts on inhabited areas and nuclear waste storage zones. The study was carried out with standard remote sensing tools for the processing of satellite imagery and the construction of digital elevation models (DEMs). The processed inputs were combined on a GIS platform with digital landslide distribution maps of 1962, 1977, and 2003, digitized geological and geographic maps, and information from landslide monitoring and geophysical investigation. As a result, various types of landslide susceptibility maps based on conditional analysis (CA) are presented as well as predictions of future landslide activity and related damming potential and their possible impact on the population. For some risk scenarios, remediation and prevention measures are suggested

The presence of massive Quaternary loess units at the eastern border of the Fergana Basin (Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia) makes this area particularly prone to the development of catastrophic loess earthflows, causing damages and injuries almost every year. Efficient disaster management requires a good understanding of the main causes of these mass movements, that is, increased groundwater pressure and seismic shaking. This paper focuses on the Kainama earthflow, mainly composed of loess, which occurred in 2004 April. Its high velocity and the long run-out zone caused the destruction of 12 houses and the death of 33 people. In summer 2005, a field survey consisting of geophysical and seismological measurements was carried out along the adjacent slope. By combination and geostatistical analysis of these data, a reliable 3-D model of the geometry and properties of the subsurface layers, as shown in the first part of the paper, was created. The analysis of the seismological data allowed us to point out a correlation between the thickness of the loess cover and the measured resonance frequencies and associated amplification potential. The second part of this paper is focused on the study of the seismic response of the slope by numerical simulations, using a 2-D finite difference code named FLAC. Modelling of the seismic amplification potential along the slope confirmed the results obtained from the seismological survey—strong amplifications at the crest and bottom of the slope where there is a thick loess cover and almost no amplification in the middle part of the slope. Furthermore, dynamic slope stability analyses were conducted to assess the influence of local amplifications and increased groundwater pressures on the slope failure. The results of the dynamic modelling, although preliminary, show that a combination of seismic and hydrologic origin (pore pressure build-up during the seismic shaking) is the most probable scenario responsible for the 2004 failure

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Assessment and management of volcanic risk are important scientific, economic, and political issues, especially in densely populated areas threatened by volcanoes. The Virunga volcanic province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 1 million inhabitants, has to cope permanently with the threat posed by the active Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes. During the past century, Nyamulagira erupted at intervals of 1-4 years - mostly in the form of lava flows - at least 30 times. Its summit and flank eruptions lasted for periods of a few days up to more than 2 years, and produced lava flows sometimes reaching distances of over 20 km from the volcano. Though most of the lava flows did not reach urban areas, only impacting the forests of the endangered Virunga National Park, some of them related to distal flank eruptions affected villages and roads. In order to identify a useful tool for lava flow hazard assessment at Goma Volcano Observatory (GVO), we tested VORIS 2.0.1 (Felpeto et al., 2007), a freely available software (http://www.gvb-csic.es) based on a probabilistic model that considers topography as the main parameter controlling the lava flow propagation. We tested different parameters and digital elevation models (DEM) - SRTM1, SRTM3, and ASTER GDEM - to evaluate the sensitivity of the models to changes in input parameters of VORIS 2.0.1. Simulations were tested against the known lava flows and topography from the 2010 Nyamulagira eruption. The results obtained show that VORIS 2.0.1 is a quick, easy-to-use tool for simulating lava-flow eruptions and replicates to a high degree of accuracy the eruptions tested when input parameters are appropriately chosen. In practice, these results will be used by GVO to calibrate VORIS for lava flow path forecasting during new eruptions, hence contributing to a better volcanic crisis management.

The Barzaman Formation dominated by variably cemented and altered conglomerates comprising calcareous siltstones and clays was deposited during the Miocene to Pliocene as a series of fluvial sediment sequences lying along the western margin of the Hajar Mountains, part of the Oman-UAE ophiolite. This study was undertaken in order to understand the occurrence and genesis of palygorskite and sepiolite in relation to the environmental changes including evaporitic and sabkha environments. Sediments were collected from two trenches and a drill hole of ca. 22 m depth. Samples were analysed by optical petrograpy, X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. Pedogenesis occurred at the deeper level in well cemented conglomerate which constitutes the hard crust. Post-depositional erosion started in marine phreatic or vadose zones as shown by the neoformation of serpentine from the weathering of olivine as well as of calcite and dolomite. Neoformation of palygorskite, sepiolite, dolomite and halite occurred under evaporitic conditions on calcareous silty clay facies. Relatively hot, vadose and oxidising environmental conditions affected the calcareous siltstone facies leading to the genesis of dolomite and palygorskite by direct precipitation from solution rich in Ca, Mg, Al, Fe and Si ions., The Barzaman Formation dominated by variably cemented and altered conglomerates comprising calcareous siltstones and clays was deposited during the Miocene to Pliocene as a series of fluvial sediment sequences lying along the western margin of the Hajar Mountains, part of the Oman-UAE ophiolite. This study was undertaken in order to understand the occurrence and genesis of palygorskite and sepiolite in relation to the environmental changes including evaporitic and sabkha environments. Sediments were collected from two trenches and a drill hole of ca. 22 m depth. Samples were analysed by optical petrograpy, X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. Pedogenesis occurred at the deeper level in well cemented conglomerate which constitutes the hard crust. Post-depositional erosion started in marine phreatic or vadose zones as shown by the neoformation of serpentine from the weathering of olivine as well as of calcite and dolomite. Neoformation of palygorskite, sepiolite, dolomite and halite occurred under evaporitic conditions on calcareous silty clay facies. Relatively hot, vadose and oxidising environmental conditions affected the calcareous siltstone facies leading to the genesis of dolomite and palygorskite by direct precipitation from solution rich in Ca, Mg, Al, Fe and Si ions.

Mailuu-Suu is a former uranium mining area in Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia) at the northern border of the Fergana Basin. This region is particularly prone to landslide hazards and, during the last 50 years, has experienced severe landslide disasters in the vicinity of numerous nuclear waste tailing dams. Due to its critical situation, the Mailuu-Suu region was and still is the target area for several risk assessment projects. This paper provides a brief review of previous studies, past landslide events and a discussion on possible future risk scenarios. Various aspects of landslide hazard and related impacts in the Mailuu-Suu Valley are analyzed in detail: landslide susceptibility, historical evolution of landslide activity, size-frequency relationship, river damming and flooding as well as impacts on inhabited areas and nuclear waste storage zones. The study was carried out with standard remote sensing tools for the processing of satellite imagery and the construction of digital elevation models (DEMs). The processed inputs were combined on a GIS platform with digital landslide distribution maps of 1962, 1977, and 2003, digitized geological and geographic maps, and information from landslide monitoring and geophysical investigation. As a result, various types of landslide susceptibility maps based on conditional analysis (CA) are presented as well as predictions of future landslide activity and related damming potential and their possible impact on the population. For some risk scenarios, remediation and prevention measures are suggested

The presence of massive Quaternary loess units at the eastern border of the Fergana Basin (Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia) makes this area particularly prone to the development of catastrophic loess earthflows, causing damages and injuries almost every year. Efficient disaster management requires a good understanding of the main causes of these mass movements, that is, increased groundwater pressure and seismic shaking. This paper focuses on the Kainama earthflow, mainly composed of loess, which occurred in 2004 April. Its high velocity and the long run-out zone caused the destruction of 12 houses and the death of 33 people. In summer 2005, a field survey consisting of geophysical and seismological measurements was carried out along the adjacent slope. By combination and geostatistical analysis of these data, a reliable 3-D model of the geometry and properties of the subsurface layers, as shown in the first part of the paper, was created. The analysis of the seismological data allowed us to point out a correlation between the thickness of the loess cover and the measured resonance frequencies and associated amplification potential. The second part of this paper is focused on the study of the seismic response of the slope by numerical simulations, using a 2-D finite difference code named FLAC. Modelling of the seismic amplification potential along the slope confirmed the results obtained from the seismological survey—strong amplifications at the crest and bottom of the slope where there is a thick loess cover and almost no amplification in the middle part of the slope. Furthermore, dynamic slope stability analyses were conducted to assess the influence of local amplifications and increased groundwater pressures on the slope failure. The results of the dynamic modelling, although preliminary, show that a combination of seismic and hydrologic origin (pore pressure build-up during the seismic shaking) is the most probable scenario responsible for the 2004 failure