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Recent paleoclimatic research has revealed that volcanic events around 536–540 AD caused severe, short-term global cooling. For this same period, archeological research from various regions evidences significant cultural transformation. However, there is still a lack of understanding of how human societies responded and adapted to extreme climate variability and new circumstances. This study focuses on the effects of the 536/540 AD volcanic event in four Scandinavian regions by exploring the shift in demographic and land use intensity before, during, and after this abrupt climate cooling. To achieve this, we performed climate simulations with and without volcanic eruptions using a dynamically downscaled climate model (iLOVECLIM) at a high resolution (0.25° or ~25 km). We integrated the findings with a comprehensive collection of radiocarbon dates from excavated archeological sites across various Scandinavian regions. Our Earth System Model simulates pronounced cooling (maximum ensemble mean −1.1°C), an abrupt reduction in precipitation, and a particularly acute drop in growing degree days (GDD0) after the volcanic event, which can be used to infer likely impacts on agricultural productivity. When compared to the archeological record, we see considerable regional diversity in the societal response to this sudden environmental event. As a result, this study provides a more comprehensive insight into the demographic chronology of Scandinavia and a deeper understanding of the land-use practices its societies depended on during the 536/540 AD event. Our results suggest that this abrupt climate anomaly amplified a social change already in progress.

As humanity confronts the escalating challenges posed by rapid climate change, it becomes increasingly urgent to understand the complex dynamics of human-environment interactions to mitigate its multifaceted impacts. Archaeology, with its long-term perspective, offers the opportunity to examine past societal responses to environmental risks across diverse locations in Northwestern Europe and temporal scales. This dissertation aims to contribute to this critical endeavour by exploring the socio-environmental dynamics and adaptive strategies of past societies, to inform effective responses to climate change challenges in both the present and future. Utilizing computational archaeology, which integrates digital technologies and computational methods to analyse big data, the dissertation employs probabilistic approaches, including Bayesian modelling like summed probability distributions of radiocarbon (14C) data, to confront uncertainties inherent in reconstructing past human-environmental dynamics from interdisciplinary datasets. Additionally, quantitative methods, such as correlation tests and null hypothesis testing of 14C data, are employed to identify significant shifts in these dynamics, translating insights into quantitative terms for enhanced integration with policy-making processes. The primary objective of the dissertation is to illustrate how the integration of archaeological and environmental big data can enrich the understanding of human responses to environmental challenges. The papers in this thesis demonstrate how computational methods can be applied to big data to understand spatiotemporal changes in human-environmental variables, uncovering risk management strategies and societal vulnerabilities. The papers highlight cases where human communities experienced mitigated adverse effects from severe environmental shifts due to diverse socioeconomic strategies. Simultaneously, the results emphasize regional variations in the impacts of climate change, cru

Excel file of complied archaeological 14C dates and associated data for Dalarna län, Sweden OxCal KDE .txt files for analysis run on data