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This thesis research developed comparative analysis models to explore whether too many or too few flight hours affected the likelihood of a mishap. The objective was to determine whether the period of sequestration and the number of total flight hours affected the number of aircraft mishaps. Flying too much leads to higher levels of fatigue, but not flying enough could result in reduced levels of proficiency. Flights during a period of sequestration are subjected to reduced flight hour funding. Data for the research covers the period of peak military funding (fiscal year 2000–February 2013) to periods of sequestration (March 2013–September 2016). Additionally, controls for night flight and overwater were used in the model to allow for better estimates of the effects of flight hours on the likelihood of a mishap. The research uses individual and squadron-level, aggregate standardized daily, weekly, and monthly flight-hour data and employs a fixed-effects logit model. The research addressed errors and controls that could affect the outcome estimates. The model's individual estimates found enough evidence to support indicators used for sequestration, high flight hours, night flight, and overwater flight had statistically significant effects on the likelihood of a mishap at either the individual or squadron level. More research is suggested with modeling other aircraft platforms to better observe trends over time. The results provide policymakers with a better understanding of the relationship between the number of flight hours and its effect on mishaps. Policymakers can use that understanding to make more informed decisions about budgetary funding of naval aviation.

The Chief of Naval Personnel (CNP) and Navy Recruiting Command (NRC) must target recruiting efforts, re-examine the rigidity of the SWO career path and adjust the female accession source input toward those who retain longer in the community. This study explores the factors of age and accession source in conjunction with women's primary childbearing years to determine how the timing of the Surface Warfare Officer (SWO) career tracks influence retention decisions of women in the SWO community. The study draws on technical reports and academic literature to address economic and psychological factors in conjunction with prior graduate theses on female SWO retention. This framework establishes career path timelines and introduces an Optimum Childbearing Window (OCW), from ages 25 to 30, aligning childbearing years with the four SWO career tracks based on accession source groupings. The models deliver a theoretical framework for evaluating the timing of exit opportunities the SWO community provides. Additionally, a framework on female military identity is added to address the psychological element of identity conflict along the SWO career path. The study concludes that, in order to retain women in the SWO community, age, accession source, military identity, pregnancy and exit point timing are all important factors to consider.

The research compares first-term enlisted Navy attrition rates of people with different immigration/ citizenship statuses. More specifically, this study identifies four groups: (1) noncitizens; (2) persons who migrate to the United States from a U.S. territory and thus possess statutory (not constitutional) citizenship; (3) U.S. citizens born in the territories (Puerto Rico, the Northern Marianas Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands); and (4) U.S. citizens born in the mainland. The Navy's definition of attrition is the departure of an enlistee before completing the first contractual term of service. The study uses cohort data files of enlisted personnel who entered the military from 2004 through 2014. The attrition rate differences were evaluated at different points in the first term: 12 months, 13–24 months, and 25–36 months. In addition to multivariate probit models to estimate attrition differences, the study also uses immigrant interviews to identify their motivations to join and stay in the Navy. The results of the statistical analysis suggest that noncitizens have a significantly lower attrition rate compared with U.S. citizens, followed by immigrants from U.S. territories. According to the interview responses, it appears that noncitizens are motivated to join the Navy for better education and career opportunities provided to them and their families. The author concludes that noncitizens and immigrants are a valuable resource to the Navy and recommends policy makers find incentives to increase recruiting among these groups. The author also recommends areas of further research that study the resiliency of noncitizens compared to citizens, and study those who migrate from U.S. territories.

This research is in response to a request from the United States Marine Corps Expeditionary Energy Office. The Marine Corps has identified its reliance on energy resources as a real threat to military security and a drag on the logistics tail of expeditionary operations. This research recommends that the Marine Corps prioritize development of the existing Unit Energy Manager program to address operational energy capability requirements. Long-term solutions require updating existing formal training and education standards and assignment of a new free military occupational specialty on the Marine Corps tables of organization. The Expeditionary Energy Office and Marine Corps Installations Command have stood up to centrally manage policy and directives for Marine Corps energy management; however, the organization has not institutionalized mission essential tasks nor developed personnel training in order to field operational energy managers to the fleet. This research identifies the federal and military policies and guidance in place to manage operational and installation energy issues, as well as the manpower billets in place to support centralized management. The research further examines the existing force structure that supports training of energy management professionals within the Marine Corps.

The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) is undergoing its largest peacetime acquisition of air assets, with increased demand on its physical security elements. Its military working dog (MWD) workforce is required to meet an inventory of 204 by end of year 2023 as a means to provide effective security for RAAF assets. This thesis conducts two areas of research. First, an econometric analysis of MWD gender, breed, and source against select dependent performance variables. Second, a fixed inventory Markov model is developed to determine how many MWDs need to be recruited between 2016 and 2023 to meet the increased quota. My results find that male and vendor-purchased MWDs outperform female and RAAF-bred MWDs, with varying results between German Shepherds and Belgian Malinois. The Markov model transition probabilities validate as sufficiently stationary and determine that 282 canines need to be recruited over the prescribed time period to meet the 204 required by end of year 2023.

Significant variables contributed to a Selective Marine Corps Reserve Marine's career decision when faced with changes initiated by the Force Structure Review Group (FSRG). This thesis identifies those variables using research conducted in response to recent Secretary of Navy and Marine Corps research initiatives. A narrative captures the development and roles of the personnel transition team concept created by Marine Forces Reserves in response to changes resulting from the FSRG. Additionally, a decision probability model is developed to estimate Marines' decisions during changes similar to those outlined in the FSRG. The data set consists of 4,170 Marines separated into three categories based on contractual obligations and location in respect to reserve sites. Nine logistic regression models estimated the effects of independent variables on a Marine's decision to transfer, interunit transfer, or stay. The findings conclude that military occupational specialty, location, performance, rank, age, deployments, and race all significantly affect a Marine's decision. The decision probability model uses the logistic regression models to estimate Marines' decisions for future events similar to the FSRG. It provides a critical tool that will help planning and execution for future changes.

The Secretary of the Navy (SECNAV) directed NPS to establish energy-focused subspecialty codes (SSC) that will prepare officers to manage all aspects of energy. In response to this SECNAV directive NPS has developed four energy-focused degree plans in the areas of Operations Analysis, Financial Management, Mechanical and Electrical Engineering. An analysis of the current force structure requirements was necessary to assess and implement a new direction. At the present time, the Navy utilizes petroleum management officers as energy managers. Unfortunately, the Navy Officer Billet Classification (NOBC) Codes assigned to these officers do not translate into the identification of the billets being identified with the energy SSCs. Analysis shows a possible solution to this issue is to establish afloat and ashore general Energy NOBCs that could be assigned as either a primary or secondary NOBC Energy billets. Specifically, analysis shows the majority of NOBCs assigned to energy billets are from the Naval Operations (90009999) Field. Therefore, this research recommends the establishment of two Energy NOBCs to support future Fleet Energy Management Challenges.

The Turkish General Command of the Gendarmerie, as a paramilitary police force, provides public security and order for people throughout 81 provinces and 902 districts. The Gendarmerie performs security and public order services in 92% of Turkey geographically and for 41% of the total population. Approximately 27 million people live in Gendarmerie jurisdiction areas, this number increases to 43 million (65% of the population) in the summer months. This study is an organizational analysis of the current assignment process of the Turkish General Command of the Gendarmerie. The analysis recommends long-term and short-term policy changes and implementation methodologies to the assignment process while taking into consideration such a geographically diverse region and often difficult assignment choices for individuals. In addition to the law-enforcement-related operations, the Gendarmerie is tasked to carry out various other types of operations, such as border security, antiterrorism, and peacekeeping. The Gendarmerie Organization, Duty, and Jurisdiction Law classifies these duties under four categories: administrative, judicial, military, and other duties. As a result of this job diversity, the Gendarmerie personnel perform different tasks in different unit areas. Therefore, the existence of geographically diverse billet characteristics has been an obstacle in the Gendarmerie assignment process., http://archive.org/details/aqualitativenaly109452243, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Mexican Navy is challenged with too few O-1 to O-3 officers and too many O-6 to O-9 officers. This research developed three models to explain the challenge. Through the use of a transition probabilities matrix, model one predicts the number of graduates from the Mexican Naval School based on accessions. Model two is a transition probability matrix that uses model one's output to forecast the distribution of Naval School Graduate Officers (NSGO) by grade over the next ten years. Model three is a non-linear objective function that observes gaps between expected inventory and demand of NSGO over the same period. For minimizing these gaps, this model considers three alternatives. The first alternative changes some transition probabilities of the second matrix while maintaining constant the probabilities of leaving ("out" probabilities) the MN and the probability of graduating from the Naval School (NS). The second alternative also changes some "out" probabilities and maintains constant the last probability. The last alternative also changes the probability of graduating from the NS. This research provides a method to determine the number of graduates from the NS and the numbers of promotions by grade to meet expected demands for NSGO personnel in the future., http://archive.org/details/determiningnumbe10945889, Commander, Mexican Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the training continuum for Navy recruiters coming from the fleet. Specifically, the study examines the current training pipeline and the theories of how people learn, why they learn, and how they retain information. The study focuses on the uniqueness of recruiting assignments, recruiter training requirements, the 2011 recruiting environment, the Navy Recruiting Command organization, and the influence of incentives on recruiting performance. The training cycle for the main selling tool, Professional Selling Skills, is analyzed based on elements of learning, forgetting, and motivation. The purpose is to strengthen the training continuum and help mitigate potential recruiting difficulties in the years ahead. The primary sources of information are Navy Recruiting Command Instructions and basic learning and motivational theories. This study suggests ways to support the training continuum by ensuring that recruiters are provided with standardized and comprehensive training throughout their recruiting tour. Periodic refresher training would ultimately boost individual recruiter productivity as well as strengthen on-the-job training. In addition to reinforced training, new motivational factors and incentives can augment the training continuum. Recommendations are provided to improve the current training continuum with recruiting simulators and enhanced incentives.

This thesis analyzes the feasibility of using new technology such as laser rangefinders to enhance ship stationkeeping during Underway Replenishment (UNREP) Operations. The introduction of new technology is the single best method to reduce manpower requirements on board Navy vessels today. UNREP at sea is the most manning intensive evolution required by the Navy for Commanders and sailors to execute. This research explores new methods to communicate and determine approach and alongside ranges between ships at sea. Research was conducted on five classes of combatants using laser rangefinders. Laser rangefinders were found to be the only mature, suitable technology to replace the Phone and Distance line legacy system. An analysis of alternatives based upon cost estimates and observed benefits revealed that using lasers could provide enhanced situational awareness to ship Commanders, Officers of the Deck and Conning officers. A modest investment in laser rangefinders for each ship in conjunction with billboard range displays on replenishment ships and reconfigured sound powered phone lines would cost effectively simplify Underway Replenishment evolutions by reducing time alongside, increasing safety to personnel and vessels at sea, and sailors Quality of Life., http://archive.org/details/costbenefitstudy109455697, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This research was conducted in association with Naval Warfare Development Command (NWDC) requests to update Unmanned Vehicle Tactical Memorandum TM-3-22- 5-SW. The research identified and discussed significant USV manning considerations such as source ratings and manpower qualities to pilot, operate sensors, support USV electronics, and the manpower implications associated with various weapons systems alternatives. In addition, this research described several existing and notional USV tactics, as well as a discussion about the existing N75 and N76 primary and secondary mission areas USV operations may support. The methodology consisted of a literature review of USV test reports; USV Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration briefs; USV Concept of Operations; fleet lessons learned; the USV tactical memorandum; Naval manpower instructions, and manuals; Weapons Tactical, Field, and Training Manuals; Military Utility Assessments; search of books, magazines, and manpower theses. The research found that determining manpower qualities and standard operating procedures will remain a dynamic process until USV equipment is standardized. The research also showed USV launch and recovery is more manpower intensive than that of a standard RHIB. Gunners Mates (GM) and Aviation Ordnancemen (AO) are potential source ratings to support USV Hellfire and Javelin missile modules. The Navy should establish a GM Navy Enlisted Classification (NEC) to support Hellfire and Javelin or add these weapons to existing GM NECs. Electronics Technicians (ET), Fire Controlmen (FC), and Fire Control Technicians (FT) are potential source ratings for USV electrical/electronic support. FC and FT are potential source ratings to support the Remote Operated Small Arms Mount. This research found additional warfighting capabilities can be gained by equipping surface warfare vessels with USV's without any negative effects to primary or secondary warfare missions. Overall, USVs enhanced designed capabilities of, http://archive.org/details/analysisofoperat109452616, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Multiple factors influence a Marine officer's probability of promotion. Currently, MMOA-4 counselors are not able to provide career advice based on statistical analysis of the multitude of variables that could be significant in an officer's potential to advance to the next higher grade. Development of a statistical counseling model provides MMOA-4 the ability to examine an officer's current predicted probability of promotion as well as his future potential for advancement--given a set of possible career choices. Such a model may increase the effectiveness of the career counseling process and potentially impact USMC officer retention and performance. This study makes recommendations to improve the Marine Corps Performance Evaluation System (PES). The researcher's analysis of eight years of fitness report data indicates that current procedures (which use raw numbers to evaluate the effects of the Reviewing Officers (RO) assessment) should be changed to a percentile system. The current system only provides a generalized output that has limited value in fitness report analysis. The raw numbers of the comparative assessment limit the possibility of comparing officers across a grade for each RO. The exact value of the percentile system allows for officers to be differentiated and compared across grade. This is similar to the relative value system used for Reporting Senior (RS) markings. This new system will allow officers to be shown as below average, average or above average for each RO, similarly to what is currently being recorded by each RS. Ultimately, this would increase the effectiveness of retention, promotion, command, and resident school selections by empowering the board members with the ability to screen officers utilizing the RO percentile system., http://archive.org/details/significantfacto109454227, US Marine Corps (USMC) author., Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Identity theft has become one of the fastest growing crimes in America and stems from the widespread and growing reliance of organizations across the nation to use Social Security Numbers (SSN) as a primary personal identifier. Originally intended for the very limited purpose of tracking social security benefits, the value of the SSN as a unique identifier was quickly recognized, and its use rapidly grew. This â functionality creepâ has led to the SSN becoming an almost de facto national ID number. Employers, universities, credit agencies and financial institutions began using the SSN as a unique personal identifier. The military started to use the SSN as a personal identifier in 1969 in place of the Military Serial Number. Today, the SSN is used pervasively throughout the military, from personnel rosters to medical records, from administrative records to operational orders. This thesis analyzes the elimination of the SSN as the primary personal identifier within the Department of Defense and the Veteransâ Administration, replacing it with a Military Identification Number (MIN). The elimination of the SSN at all but one critical location (pay related matters at the Defense Finance and Accounting System), would render all lost or stolen data useless to an identity thief. A Cost/Benefit Analysis of the transition from SSN to MIN using six methods of analysis, payback period method, discounted payback period, benefit cost ratio, net present value, internal rate of return, and a probabilistic NPV were examined. Each methodâ s benefits and drawbacks are discussed and the findings are summarized. The CBA shows that the transition to a MIN is a cost effective solution with a Net Present Value that falls between $701 million and $554 million over a 10 year period., http://archive.org/details/annalysisofuseof109453633, US Marine Corps (USMC) authors., Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This research analyzed prior enlisted Marine Officer Retention and their relationship to military paycaps. An analysis of the data showed that retention behavior of prior-enlisted Marine Officers differs from non-prior Marine Officers. Prior-enlisted Marine Officers are more likely to remain on active duty after their initial service obligation and serve a full career in the Marine Corps than Marine Officers with no previous military experience. Prior-enlisted service has a positive effect on retention to 20 YOS. A Marine Officer with sufficient time in service stops receiving longevity pay, and experiences the phenomenon known as pay compression. The lack of pay raises for six years or longer may be a disincentive to continued service, although prior-enlisted Marine Officers have higher retention rates than non-priors at every stage of their careers. The results of this study suggests that Mustang or prior-enlisted Marine Officers with at least 8 years of prior service retire at a higher rate than regular officers after 20 YOS., http://archive.org/details/theeffectofpaysc109454295, US Marine Corps (USMC) author., Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

In August of 2001 the Secretary of the Navy announced the Navy would expand the work and experimentation in unmanned vehicle systems. After the events of September 11 this was accelerated with the increased urgency to combat terrorism and asymmetric threats. The U.S. Navy is currently undergoing testing and evaluation of the Fire Scout Vertical Take-Off Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (VTUAV) and its integration into the fleet. An in depth analysis of the Fire Scout's manpower requirements is necessary as part of total force integration. At the present time, the Navy only utilizes aviation ratings by requirement and assignment as unmanned aerial system operators, unlike the Army and Marine Corps. Therefore, the Littoral Combat Ship manpower requirements exceed the Navy's target of 25 persons for the combined RQ-8B and SH-60 air detachment. Analysis shows a possible remedy to this problem is to allow non-aviation ratings the opportunity to operate the Fire Scout. This change in policy and occupational standards would generate greater operational capability and personnel flexibility for this newly acquired air ship and surface platform. Specifically, occupational research showed the Aviation Administrationman (AZ) rating is no more qualified to operate a Fire Scout VTUAV than the Operations Specialist (OS) rating. In fact, it can be argued that an OS is better qualified according to occupational standards to operate the Fire Scout. Therefore, one of the recommendations of this research is to add Operational Specialist as a source rating to NECs 8363 and 8364 immediately., http://archive.org/details/anoperationalman109453208, US Navy (USN) author., Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Marine Corps has been very successful at meeting its yearly recruiting goal. However, the Marine Corps does struggle to recruit the correct number of applicants into each enlistment program. Enlistment bonuses are used to attract highly qualified applicants into critically short enlistment programs and the enlistment bonus budget has increased significantly in the past 3 years. The Marine Corps has the ability to determine what enlistment programs are considered "difficult to fill" and the capability to increase the number of allocations and the dollar amount of enlistment bonuses. However, the Marine Corps does not have the ability to determine the optimal dollar amount for an enlistment bonus. This research begins by analyzing methods used in previous studies to estimate the optimal enlistment incentive. The research found that choice-based surveys administered to recruits could be used to determine optimal enlistment incentives. Then the study analyzed eight years of recruiting data obtained from the Total Force Data Warehouse and the Marine Corps Recruiting Command. Results show that the enlistment bonus program (EBP) was unchanged for several years and other factors identified could be decreasing the effectiveness of the EBP. With the information provided by this thesis, the, http://archive.org/details/annalysisofmarin109454186, US Marine Corps (USMC) author., Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines the organization and effectiveness of CNO priority 1 and 2 manning by conducting a comparison analysis on priority manning and non-priority manning for the AE and AW enlisted ratings from June of 2001to June of 2002. Priority manning was introduced in the Navy to ensure activities whose missions are essential to national interest are properly manned even when personnel shortages exist. Little formal analysis of priority manning has been conducted in the past and this research provides an overview of the steps in the process and the effects that priority manning has on the Navy's distribution system. The results of this research conclude that there is a need to improve the CNO priority manning process. Transition of process management occurred during this study to Pers-452/Allocation and Statistics Branch of the Navy Personnel Command. This thesis will provide an explanation of the process and recommendations to assist the new managers in implementing and monitoring the process more effectively., http://archive.org/details/anorganizational109451093, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis investigates the effect of commissioning program on career progression for U.S. Air Force Line officers. This study specifies and estimates three logistic regression models to analyze the relationship between commissioning source and officer performance using retention and promotion to O-4 as performance measures. Two measures of retention were used: the retention after expiration of the initial minimum service requirement, and retention to the O-4 promotion board. The data used in the models was provided by Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) and contained information about demographics, professional and educational background, and reasons and dates for separation for officers who were commissioned between 1992 and 2006. The analysis of all three logistic regression models finds out that commissioning source is a significant determinant of retention and promotion in the Air Force. Commissioning through the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) increases the probability of staying in the Air Force. Although USAFA graduates were initially expected to have higher promotion rates, the results suggest that they are less likely to promote to the grade of O-4 than officers commissioned through OTS and the ROTC Non-Scholarship program. However, USAFA graduates have a higher probability of promotion than officers from the ROTC scholarship program., http://archive.org/details/annalysisofeffec109455369, Turkish Army author, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine career progression for ground combat arms officers in the Marine Corps Reserve, and to identify gaps between current and optimal career progression. Recent policy changes provide the catalyst for this thesis. On 4 December 2006, the Marine Corps announced the implementation of the Officer Candidate Course-Reserve. At the time, active component manpower practices and historically high retention rates resulted in reduced numbers of officers leaving active duty following their initial service obligation. Those officers who transitioned into the Reserve Component did so at grades more senior than required to fill junior officer billets. These factors combined to create a gap between RC junior company grade leadership requirements and the inventory of junior company grade officers. As the Marine Corps begins to staff reserve ground combat arms and engineer platoon and company commanders at 100% of manning, the requirement exists to develop a career path that provides the breadth of experience and expertise desired in its future leaders. However, challenges arise regarding the early to mid-stages of career progression due to training opportunities and PME requirements being less readily available to reserve officers than to their active component counterparts.

A cultural debate exists to determine if the MQ-8B Fire Scout Vertical Takeoff and Landing Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (VTUAV) should be operated by rated pilots, commissioned officers, or enlisted personnel. Each military service has historically treated this issue differently. The U.S. Navy currently requires rated pilots to fly Fire Scout, the U.S. Army and Marine Corps allow enlisted personnel to fly their Shadow Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), and the Air Force only allows rated pilots to fly their UAV systems. Technology has advanced rapidly in the area of UAVs as they have advanced from being remotely piloted aircraft to now being completely autonomous. This research examined the Air Vehicle Operator (AVO) requirements for autonomous vehicles such as Fire Scout and will demonstrate that the U.S Navy should create a pilot program that trains enlisted personnel to operate Fire Scout. This research identifies the costs and benefits associated with each type of prospective operator alternativerated pilots, commissioned Surface Warfare Officers (SWO), and Operations Specialist (OS) enlisted personnel. By utilizing enlisted AVOs vice rated pilots, training costs will be found to be reduced from millions to tens of thousands, annual amortized manning costs will be cut by more than half, and total cost savings will be found to be on the order of a billion dollars over a ten-year period. The research will also identify both tangible and intangible benefits by allowing enlisted personnel to become Fire Scout AVOs. Benefits are identified relating to training time, manning constraints, physiological constraints, culture, and safety. Furthermore, this research will summarize current Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities (KSA) necessary to operate an autonomous air vehicle such as Fire Scout.

There is concern that the current approach to the peacetime medical mission of Navy Medicine does not adequately address the need to provide its personnel with the skill sets necessary for the surgically intensive environment associated with the wartime mission. Navy Medicine has shifted its focus on the delivery of health care over the last decade from treatment and intervention to prevention, health promotion and population health initiatives. This focus makes good business and clinical sense from the managed care and population health perspective. This thesis examined Navy Medicine's inpatient and outpatient surgical workload and military staffing to determine the level of support it provides for the readiness mission. A trend analysis was performed using workload data from the Medical Expense and Performance Reporting System between fiscal year 1999 and 2002. This analysis shows that there has been an overall decrease in the amount of inpatient surgical workload for all surgical specialties. However, not all surgical specialties have observed an increase in outpatient workload over this same time period. Additionally, an examination and trending of end strength data for the Medical Corps and Nurse Corps using primary subspecialty codes was performed for fiscal years 1990 through 2002. The results indicated that while there have been few changes in overall end strength over the last decade, changes in specialties have occurred consistent with an emphasis on a medical model that focuses on outpatient primary care. The evidence suggests an emerging gap between the dual missions of Navy Medicine that warrants further investigation as to its potential impact on medical readiness., http://archive.org/details/annalysisofpeace109451121, US Navy (USN) author.

This research was conducted to examine the quantitative and qualitative component requirements for the Tier II and Tier III of the United States Marine Corps Unmanned Aerial Systems Program. The main objective of this research is to develop a proposed manpower structure for a composite squadron in order to improve current UAS capabilities while minimizing manpower requirements. This was accomplished by conducting an independent assessment of manpower requirements of the different strategies being considered under the Unmanned Aerial Systems Family of Systems (UAS FoS) for the Marine Corps for the Tier II and III. In the final analysis, the research recommends the consolidation of the Tiers II and III to form a composite UAV squadron, reduce the logistics footprint by relegating the support mission to the MWSS and the MALS, and combining operational and maintenance billets within the current VMU structure to consolidate manpower requirements and optimize UAS force structures., http://archive.org/details/annalysisofmanpo109453465, US Marine Corps (USMC) author., Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Reserve Affairs (RA) division at Headquarters Marine Corps (HQMC) requested the development of a model to determine affiliation and participation rates for field grade officers for a projected officer population in the Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR) and the Individual Mobilization Augment (IMA) program, and a corresponding mobilization requirement among un-affiliated officers. This thesis analyzes roughly 20 years of Marine Corps Reserve officer inventory history. It examines how the Marine Corps Reserves current grade strength inventory evolved and uses that inventory data to develop a reference table for use by RA to better plan for future requirements. This table will allow RA to plan for how many of each field grade rank are required in inventory to maintain an acceptable manning rate so that the Marine Reserve is not left short-handed in those categories, or have too many under-employed officers., http://archive.org/details/postfieldgradeof109455774, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This research is in response to a request by the Marine Aviation Detachment at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, MD. Currently, no manpower planning tools exist for force shaping of the Marine Corps Acquisition Community. This thesis creates a force shaping and forecasting tool for Marine Corps manpower planners. The tool assists planners in forecasting inventory levels across rank and Military Occupational Specialty combinations and in determining the most robust force structure for the acquisition officer community. Validation of the model reveals the usefulness of the planning tool for forecasting inventory levels, but it also indicates weakness in force structure analysis. This weakness is due to the small size and nascency of the current community, further data collection is required to validate the model for future use in force structure development.

In a given fiscal year, the United States Marine Corps accesses approximately 30,000 enlisted personnel into its ranks. This labor supply of recruits is classified into various Military Occupational Specialties (MOSs) according to the forecasted requirement for new personnel into a particular MOS. The Classification Plan is the primary initial training input into the Training Input Plan, which allocates all training resources for Training and Education Command. The current Classification Model is based on a steady-state Markov Model that estimates the first-term inventory of each initial training MOS inventory of personnel. A performance comparison was made against a transient Markov Model that solves for an optimal classification plan over the course of a four-year planning horizon. First, the validity of the steady-state assumption is tested and found to produce a variance of annual targets for each MOS throughout the Future Years Defense Plan that is prohibitively high. Next, a comparison of each models ability to forecast annual attrition by MOS between the years 2001 and 2011 is tested. Results indicate that the transient model produced a more accurate forecast for 5,321 out of 7,379 design points (approximately 72% of the observations). The transient model achieved a Mean Absolute Proportional Error that was on average 14 percentage points smaller than that of the steady-state model. In over 25% of the cases, this difference exceeded 20 percentage points. Based upon this improved performance, it is recommended the Marine Corps adopt the enhanced transient Markov Model as the foundation for forecasting its annual Enlisted Classification Plan.

Currently the submarine force is exploring two possible UAVs, Switchblade and ScanEagle. Each brings capabilities to the submarine to allow safer operations while continuing to perform the required mission. The constantly changing operational environment has forced all elements of the military to adapt and overcome. The submarine force is tasked with more missions and less support than ever before. As a result the ability to adapt and overcome has create a need for additional capabilities in the form of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). A manpower analysis was conducted to identify requirements necessary for submarine launched UAV operations. Current surface launched UAV Navy Enlisted Classification (NEC) codes were used as a comparison for the analysis. Currently these NECs are only available to aviation source ratings. Analysis shows that there are several submarine specific ratings that have the same knowledge entry requirements as the aviation source ratings that are eligible to operate UAVs. Furthermore, research showed that based on the simplicity of operation of Switchblade and ScanEagle, that no additional manpower requirements are necessary. Specifically, on all classes of submarines, Switchblade can be launched and flown with no additional watchstations manned, compared to a standard mission watchbill. Also, with ScanEagle, SSGN class submarines require no additional watchstanders once the UAV is launched, and airborne than would be required for a normal mission watchbill. Incorporating UAVs into the arsenal of a submarine is a vital requirement that needs accomplished. This research recommends the creation of a specific NEC for the submarine force to identify UAV operators.

aphic characteristics exacerbate the effect of moral waivers. This thesis used Total Force Data Warehouse cohort files from fiscal years 1997 to 2005. Multivariate probit models were used to analyze the effects of moral waivers on unsatisfactory service separations., http://archive.org/details/determiningrelat109454220, US Marine Corps (USMC) author., Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Reserve Affairs (RA) division at Headquarters Marine Corps (HQMC) requested the development of a model to determine affiliation and participation rates for field grade officers for a projected officer population in the Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR) and the Individual Mobilization Augment (IMA) program, and a corresponding mobilization requirement among un-affiliated officers. This thesis analyzes roughly 20 years of Marine Corps Reserve officer inventory history. It examines how the Marine Corps Reserves current grade strength inventory evolved and uses that inventory data to develop a reference table for use by RA to better plan for future requirements. This table will allow RA to plan for how many of each field grade rank are required in inventory to maintain an acceptable manning rate so that the Marine Reserve is not left short-handed in those categories, or have too many under-employed officers.

This thesis investigates the effect of commissioning program on career progression for U.S. Air Force Line officers. This study specifies and estimates three logistic regression models to analyze the relationship between commissioning source and officer performance using retention and promotion to O-4 as performance measures. Two measures of retention were used: the retention after expiration of the initial minimum service requirement, and retention to the O-4 promotion board. The data used in the models was provided by Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) and contained information about demographics, professional and educational background, and reasons and dates for separation for officers who were commissioned between 1992 and 2006. The analysis of all three logistic regression models finds out that commissioning source is a significant determinant of retention and promotion in the Air Force. Commissioning through the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) increases the probability of staying in the Air Force. Although USAFA graduates were initially expected to have higher promotion rates, the results suggest that they are less likely to promote to the grade of O-4 than officers commissioned through OTS and the ROTC Non-Scholarship program. However, USAFA graduates have a higher probability of promotion than officers from the ROTC scholarship program.

The recent increased urgency to combat terrorism and asymmetric threats, combined with the environment in which field troops are forced to operate has created a unique demand for non-standard war fighting capabilities. Beginning in 2004, the U.S. Navy, in a joint effort with the U.S. Army, began jointly testing and evaluating the Northrop Grumman MQ-8B Fire Scout Vertical Take Off Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (VTUAV). This platform has shown very promising early results in testing and is slated for implementation on the Navy's newest Littoral Combat Ship (LCS). A manpower analysis of the Fire Scout MQ-8B was conducted to identify requirements applicable to operating the platform aboard LCS. Current Army MQ-8B manning was described and used to compute a baseline model determining best mix of manpower requirements needed to implement Fire Scout at sea. Accurate identification of manpower requirements and training for Fire Scout operators, technicians and support personnel will eventually diminish reliance on civilian contractors, and provide the opportunity for joint military operability. The Army MQ-8B Fire Scout training program was analyzed to compare the suitability and feasibility of Navy training for operators and technicians. Currently, there is no Navy training program in place to train Fire Scout operators and technicians to support LCS.

This research analyzed prior enlisted Marine Officer Retention and their relationship to military paycaps. An analysis of the data showed that retention behavior of prior-enlisted Marine Officers differs from non-prior Marine Officers. Prior-enlisted Marine Officers are more likely to remain on active duty after their initial service obligation and serve a full career in the Marine Corps than Marine Officers with no previous military experience. Prior-enlisted service has a positive effect on retention to 20 YOS. A Marine Officer with sufficient time in service stops receiving longevity pay, and experiences the phenomenon known as pay compression. The lack of pay raises for six years or longer may be a disincentive to continued service, although prior-enlisted Marine Officers have higher retention rates than non-priors at every stage of their careers. The results of this study suggests that Mustang or prior-enlisted Marine Officers with at least 8 years of prior service retire at a higher rate than regular officers after 20 YOS.

Multiple factors influence a Marine officer's probability of promotion. Currently, MMOA-4 counselors are not able to provide career advice based on statistical analysis of the multitude of variables that could be significant in an officer's potential to advance to the next higher grade. Development of a statistical counseling model provides MMOA-4 the ability to examine an officer's current predicted probability of promotion as well as his future potential for advancement--given a set of possible career choices. Such a model may increase the effectiveness of the career counseling process and potentially impact USMC officer retention and performance. This study makes recommendations to improve the Marine Corps Performance Evaluation System (PES). The researcher's analysis of eight years of fitness report data indicates that current procedures (which use raw numbers to evaluate the effects of the Reviewing Officers (RO) assessment) should be changed to a percentile system. The current system only provides a generalized output that has limited value in fitness report analysis. The raw numbers of the comparative assessment limit the possibility of comparing officers across a grade for each RO. The exact value of the percentile system allows for officers to be differentiated and compared across grade. This is similar to the relative value system used for Reporting Senior (RS) markings. This new system will allow officers to be shown as below average, average or above average for each RO, similarly to what is currently being recorded by each RS. Ultimately, this would increase the effectiveness of retention, promotion, command, and resident school selections by empowering the board members with the ability to screen officers utilizing the RO percentile system.

The Marine Corps has been very successful at meeting its yearly recruiting goal. However, the Marine Corps does struggle to recruit the correct number of applicants into each enlistment program. Enlistment bonuses are used to attract highly qualified applicants into critically short enlistment programs and the enlistment bonus budget has increased significantly in the past 3 years. The Marine Corps has the ability to determine what enlistment programs are considered "difficult to fill" and the capability to increase the number of allocations and the dollar amount of enlistment bonuses. However, the Marine Corps does not have the ability to determine the optimal dollar amount for an enlistment bonus. This research begins by analyzing methods used in previous studies to estimate the optimal enlistment incentive. The research found that choice-based surveys administered to recruits could be used to determine optimal enlistment incentives. Then the study analyzed eight years of recruiting data obtained from the Total Force Data Warehouse and the Marine Corps Recruiting Command. Results show that the enlistment bonus program (EBP) was unchanged for several years and other factors identified could be decreasing the effectiveness of the EBP. With the information provided by this thesis, the

aphic characteristics exacerbate the effect of moral waivers. This thesis used Total Force Data Warehouse cohort files from fiscal years 1997 to 2005. Multivariate probit models were used to analyze the effects of moral waivers on unsatisfactory service separations.

Identity theft has become one of the fastest growing crimes in America and stems from the widespread and growing reliance of organizations across the nation to use Social Security Numbers (SSN) as a primary personal identifier. Originally intended for the very limited purpose of tracking social security benefits, the value of the SSN as a unique identifier was quickly recognized, and its use rapidly grew. This â functionality creepâ has led to the SSN becoming an almost de facto national ID number. Employers, universities, credit agencies and financial institutions began using the SSN as a unique personal identifier. The military started to use the SSN as a personal identifier in 1969 in place of the Military Serial Number. Today, the SSN is used pervasively throughout the military, from personnel rosters to medical records, from administrative records to operational orders. This thesis analyzes the elimination of the SSN as the primary personal identifier within the Department of Defense and the Veteransâ Administration, replacing it with a Military Identification Number (MIN). The elimination of the SSN at all but one critical location (pay related matters at the Defense Finance and Accounting System), would render all lost or stolen data useless to an identity thief. A Cost/Benefit Analysis of the transition from SSN to MIN using six methods of analysis, payback period method, discounted payback period, benefit cost ratio, net present value, internal rate of return, and a probabilistic NPV were examined. Each methodâ s benefits and drawbacks are discussed and the findings are summarized. The CBA shows that the transition to a MIN is a cost effective solution with a Net Present Value that falls between $701 million and $554 million over a 10 year period.

In August of 2001 the Secretary of the Navy announced the Navy would expand the work and experimentation in unmanned vehicle systems. After the events of September 11 this was accelerated with the increased urgency to combat terrorism and asymmetric threats. The U.S. Navy is currently undergoing testing and evaluation of the Fire Scout Vertical Take-Off Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (VTUAV) and its integration into the fleet. An in depth analysis of the Fire Scout's manpower requirements is necessary as part of total force integration. At the present time, the Navy only utilizes aviation ratings by requirement and assignment as unmanned aerial system operators, unlike the Army and Marine Corps. Therefore, the Littoral Combat Ship manpower requirements exceed the Navy's target of 25 persons for the combined RQ-8B and SH-60 air detachment. Analysis shows a possible remedy to this problem is to allow non-aviation ratings the opportunity to operate the Fire Scout. This change in policy and occupational standards would generate greater operational capability and personnel flexibility for this newly acquired air ship and surface platform. Specifically, occupational research showed the Aviation Administrationman (AZ) rating is no more qualified to operate a Fire Scout VTUAV than the Operations Specialist (OS) rating. In fact, it can be argued that an OS is better qualified according to occupational standards to operate the Fire Scout. Therefore, one of the recommendations of this research is to add Operational Specialist as a source rating to NECs 8363 and 8364 immediately.

This research was conducted to examine the quantitative and qualitative component requirements for the Tier II and Tier III of the United States Marine Corps Unmanned Aerial Systems Program. The main objective of this research is to develop a proposed manpower structure for a composite squadron in order to improve current UAS capabilities while minimizing manpower requirements. This was accomplished by conducting an independent assessment of manpower requirements of the different strategies being considered under the Unmanned Aerial Systems Family of Systems (UAS FoS) for the Marine Corps for the Tier II and III. In the final analysis, the research recommends the consolidation of the Tiers II and III to form a composite UAV squadron, reduce the logistics footprint by relegating the support mission to the MWSS and the MALS, and combining operational and maintenance billets within the current VMU structure to consolidate manpower requirements and optimize UAS force structures.

This research was conducted in association with Naval Warfare Development Command (NWDC) requests to update Unmanned Vehicle Tactical Memorandum TM-3-22- 5-SW. The research identified and discussed significant USV manning considerations such as source ratings and manpower qualities to pilot, operate sensors, support USV electronics, and the manpower implications associated with various weapons systems alternatives. In addition, this research described several existing and notional USV tactics, as well as a discussion about the existing N75 and N76 primary and secondary mission areas USV operations may support. The methodology consisted of a literature review of USV test reports; USV Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration briefs; USV Concept of Operations; fleet lessons learned; the USV tactical memorandum; Naval manpower instructions, and manuals; Weapons Tactical, Field, and Training Manuals; Military Utility Assessments; search of books, magazines, and manpower theses. The research found that determining manpower qualities and standard operating procedures will remain a dynamic process until USV equipment is standardized. The research also showed USV launch and recovery is more manpower intensive than that of a standard RHIB. Gunners Mates (GM) and Aviation Ordnancemen (AO) are potential source ratings to support USV Hellfire and Javelin missile modules. The Navy should establish a GM Navy Enlisted Classification (NEC) to support Hellfire and Javelin or add these weapons to existing GM NECs. Electronics Technicians (ET), Fire Controlmen (FC), and Fire Control Technicians (FT) are potential source ratings for USV electrical/electronic support. FC and FT are potential source ratings to support the Remote Operated Small Arms Mount. This research found additional warfighting capabilities can be gained by equipping surface warfare vessels with USV's without any negative effects to primary or secondary warfare missions. Overall, USVs enhanced designed capabilities of

The Turkish General Command of the Gendarmerie, as a paramilitary police force, provides public security and order for people throughout 81 provinces and 902 districts. The Gendarmerie performs security and public order services in 92% of Turkey geographically and for 41% of the total population. Approximately 27 million people live in Gendarmerie jurisdiction areas, this number increases to 43 million (65% of the population) in the summer months. This study is an organizational analysis of the current assignment process of the Turkish General Command of the Gendarmerie. The analysis recommends long-term and short-term policy changes and implementation methodologies to the assignment process while taking into consideration such a geographically diverse region and often difficult assignment choices for individuals. In addition to the law-enforcement-related operations, the Gendarmerie is tasked to carry out various other types of operations, such as border security, antiterrorism, and peacekeeping. The Gendarmerie Organization, Duty, and Jurisdiction Law classifies these duties under four categories: administrative, judicial, military, and other duties. As a result of this job diversity, the Gendarmerie personnel perform different tasks in different unit areas. Therefore, the existence of geographically diverse billet characteristics has been an obstacle in the Gendarmerie assignment process.