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The prediction of the dinoflagellate red tide forming Karenia selliformis is a relevant task to aid optimized management decisions in marine coastal water. The objective of the present study is to compare different modeling approaches for prediction of Karenia selliformis occurrences and blooms. A set of physical parameters (salinity, temperature and tide amplitude), meteorological constraints (evaporation, air temperature, insolation, rainfall, atmospheric pressure and humidity), sampling months and sampling sites are used. The model prediction included general linear model (GLM), Bayesian Network (BN) and the simplest BN type which is, Naive Bayes classifier (NB). The results showed that three models incriminated high salinity in Karenia selliformis blooms and the sampling sites, mainly Boughrara lagoon, in the occurrences. The BN performed better than linear models (NB and GLM) for both Karenia selliformis occurrences and blooms prediction. This later is related to the facts that BN considered the inter-independency between predictive variables and that the relationships between the variables and the outcome are often non-linear such us; the transition to bloom situations appeared to be triggered by a salinity threshold. This study is useful in the management of this ecosystem so as to use the best disposal options in the early prediction of the toxic blooms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the planktonic cyanobacteria structure, composition and diversity were followed over three consecutive years (2005–2006–2007) in the Gulf of Gabes (Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Tunisia). Cyanobacteria abundances, biomasses and cell lengths were measured together with selected environmental variables (pH, salinity, temperature and nutrients). The space and time variations of the cyanobacteria in relation to the environmental factors showed a close relationship between these plankton communities and the hydrographic structure of the water column. Cyanobacteria developed over semi-mixed conditions (May–June 2006) and during the thermal stratification (July 2005). The cyanobacterial abundance and biomass was evident between 20 and 35 m in inshore stations and between 20 and 25 m in deeper stations during the semi-mixing conditions and stratification. This thermocline level coincided with the euphotic layer (21.85 ± 3.76 m) allowing access of light radiation. The cyanobacteria bloom occurred during May–June 2006 when the N/P ratio (<10) was clearly below the accepted standard molar ratio of N/P = 16/1. Commonalities among cyanobacterial genera include being highly competitive for low concentrations of inorganic P (DIP) and the ability to acquire organic P compounds. Our study showed that both diazotrophic (N2-fixing) cyanobacteria such as Anabaena sp., Chroococcus sp., Trichodesmium erythraeum, Spirulina sp. and Spirulina subsalsa and non-diazotrophic cyanobacteria such as Pseudoanabaena sp. and Microcystis display a great flexibility in the N sources which allow formation of blooms. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]