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The aim of the WFD is to achieve good ecological status of water bodies by 2027. EU- countries are busy deciding on the measures needed to achieve this target in the last planning period. The WFD accepts exemptions to the environmental objectives in cases where achieving good ecological status is disproportionately costly when compared to the environmental benefits. However, few countries have succeeded in such an analysis and so the wish for exemptions is often not founded in actual CBA analyses. In a previous paper an approach to screening of catchments has been presented (Jensen et al., 2013).In this new analysis, an effort has been made to improve both the cost and especially the benefit estimates. For each catchment area, the current water quality status is identified and the costs of achieving good ecological status are determined. The cost estimates include a range of non-point pollution measures in agriculture and urban wastewater (overflow and from sewage works). Benefit assessment is based on a meta analysis of primary valuation studies in the Nordic countries. The analyses are carried out for the 108 catchments included the River Basin Management Plans for Denmark.On the cost side, the reduction target of 13,000 tN has been set in order to reach good ecological status in 2027. The national costs vary from 600 to 1100 million DKK depending on the potentials and the measures used. The highest costs are where the reduction requirements are the largest.The benefit estimates are based on a meta function. The meta function has been tested at it shows that the transfer-errors are within the bounds of what is considered acceptable for this type of benefit transfer. The average transfer error is 13.7 % with a median of 0.7 %. The benefit results show significant variations across catchments; accordingly, willingness to pay for good water quality varies across households. Variations in aggregate willingness to pay across catchments is also attributed to the variation in number of households across catchments. The average WTP was 1313 DKK per household. Further analyses will show the cost/benefit ratio in the different catchments which will be presented.

Transforming long-term conflicts into peaceful intergroup relations is one of the most difficult challenges for humanity. Such meaningful social changes are often driven by young people. But do young people living in contexts of long-term conflicts actually believe that change is even possible? In a series of six studies (Ntotal = 119,671) over two decades and across two unrelated intractable conflicts in Israel/Palestine and Cyprus, we found that younger (compared to older) generations from both respective rival groups have less hope for peace, and consequently less conciliatory attitudes. We also show that this gradual improvement of peace-promoting emotions and attitudes with increasing age can be experimentally accelerated in young people through a virtual reality-based aging simulation. These findings provide a new perspective on the fundamental question of why long-term conflicts are so difficult to resolve, and highlight the importance of instilling hope in young generations to advance peace-processes.

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was first detected in 2011 in Germany and then in France in 2012. This study simulates the production of different ruminant systems in France and estimates, through partial budget analyses, the economic cost of SBV at the farm level, under two disease scenarios (a high-impact and low-impact scenario). A partial budget is used to evaluate the financial effect of incremental changes, and includes only resources or production that will be changed. In the high-impact scenario, the estimated impact of SBV ranged from €23 to €43 per cow per year and €19 to €37 per ewe per year. In the low-impact scenario, it was approximately half (for cows) or one-third (for ewes) of this amount. These financial impacts represent 0.6% to 63% of the gross margin, depending on the chosen scenario and the livestock system being considered. The impacts of SBV come mainly from: the extra costs from purchasing and raising replacement heifers and losses in milk production (dairy cows); the losses in calf or lamb production (beef systems and meat sheep); and the losses in milk production and from unsold replacement lambs (dairy sheep). The use of integrated production and economic models enabled the authors to estimate the cost of SBV and to tackle the problem of scarce data, which is a difficulty for most emerging diseases, by their very nature. It also allowed the authors to develop an accurate disease impact assessment for several production systems, over a short time span. Extrapolating from this economic assessment to predict the scenario in coming years depends on the immunity period of the disease and the length of the production cycles.Le virus de Schmallenberg a été détecté pour la première fois en 2011 en Allemagne, puis en France en 2012. Les auteurs présentent une étude de simulation de plusieurs systèmes de production de ruminants en France, dont l’objectif était d’estimer, à partir d’analyses budgétaires partielles, les coûts économiques du virus de Schmallenberg à l’échelle des exploitations, sous deux scénarios différents (hypothèses d’un fort impact et d’un faible impact de la maladie, respectivement). Une analyse budgétaire partielle sert à évaluer les conséquences financières d’un changement graduel et ne prend en compte que les modifications effectives en termes de ressources et de production. Dans l’hypothèse d’un impact fort de la maladie, l’impact annuel estimé du virus de Schmallenberg variait de 23 à 43 euros par vache et de 19 à 37 euros par brebis. Dans l’hypothèse d’un impact faible, l’impact annuel était deux fois moindre chez les vaches et trois fois moindre chez les brebis que dans la première hypothèse. Ces impacts financiers représentent 0,6 % à 63 % de la marge brute en fonction du scénario choisi et du système de production. Les impacts du virus de Schmallenberg découlent principalement des coûts supplémentaires induits par l’achat et le maintien de génisses de remplacement et d’une baisse de la production de lait (vaches laitières), des pertes de veaux ou d’agneaux (bovins et ovins de boucherie), d’une baisse de la production de lait et du coût des agnelles de remplacement invendues (brebis laitières). L’utilisation de modèles intégrant les aspects économiques et les données de production a permis aux auteurs d’estimer le coût du virus de Schmallenberg malgré la pénurie de données, s’attaquant ainsi à une difficulté inhérente à la plupart des maladies émergentes. Cela leur a également permis d’effectuer une évaluation précise de l’impact sanitaire dans plusieurs systèmes de production, sur une durée courte. La possibilité d’extrapoler à partir de cette évaluation économique un scénario pour les années à venir dépend de la période d’immunité vis-à-vis de la maladie et de la durée des cycles de production.El virus de Schmallenberg fue detectado por primera vez en 2011 en Alemania y ulteriormente en 2012 en Francia. Los autores describen un estudio en el que se simularon distintos sistemas de producción de rumiantes en Francia y se estimó, con análisis presupuestarios parciales, el coste económico que entrañaría para una explotación el virus de Schmallenberg en dos hipotéticas situaciones sanitarias (una situación con efectos profundos y otra con efectos leves). El análisis presupuestario parcial sirve para evaluar los efectos económicos de cambios graduales, e incluye únicamente aquellos recursos y aspectos de la producción que experimentarán cambios. En la hipótesis de efectos profundos, el impacto estimado de la infección por el virus de Schmallenberg oscilaba entre 23 y 43 euros anuales por vaca y entre 19 y 37 euros anuales por oveja hembra. La hipótesis de efectos leves deparaba importes de aproximadamente la mitad (en el caso de las vacas) o un tercio (en el de las ovejas). Este impacto económico representa del 0,6% al 63% del margen bruto, dependiendo de la hipótesis elegida y del sistema productivo de que se trate. Los efectos de la infección por el virus de Schmallenberg se concretan básicamente en: los costos suplementarios derivados de adquirir y criar vaquillas de sustitución y de obtener una menor producción de leche (vacas lecheras); las pérdidas de terneros o corderos (sistemas de bovino u ovino cárnicos); y los costos derivados de la menor producción de leche y de no vender las corderas de sustitución (ovejas lecheras). El uso de modelos que integran los factores productivos y económicos sirvió a los autores para estimar el costo del virus de Schmallenberg a pesar de la escasez de datos, que, por la propia naturaleza de las enfermedades emergentes, es una dificultad común a la mayoría de ellas. También les permitió evaluar con exactitud el impacto de la enfermedad en distintos sistemas productivos en un breve lapso de tiempo. La realización de extrapolaciones a partir de esta evaluación económica para pronosticar la situación en años venideros depende del periodo de inmunidad respecto de la enfermedad y de la duración de los ciclos productivos.

The ShanghAI Lectures project contributes to the fundamental goal of making education and knowledge accessible to a broad interdisciplinary and intercultural audience. Deploying state of the art videoconferencing technology and three dimensional virtual environments the project enables students and researchers from all around the globe to learn and work together.