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Climate variability impacts various global challenges, including food security, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, and human well-being. However, climate patterns and trends and community perceptions at spatially-explicit levels have been minimally addressed. The spatial and temporal trends of climate conditions in Bagamoyo District in Tanzania were examined using historical (1983–2010) and projected (2022–2050) meteorological and climate model data, respectively. Community knowledge and experiences of past climate occurrences were included. The implications of projected climate change for regional agricultural production and food security were assessed. The study drew on empirical data obtained from household surveys conducted in seven villages in the district. Effectively, 309 households were randomly sampled across the villages to provide the perception of climate change and associated impacts on agriculture and livelihoods. Both qualitative and quantitative statistical techniques were employed to analyse the incidence, frequency, and intensity of regional extreme climate events. The meteorological and climate modelling data were subjected to trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests, and the present and projected spatial and temporal trends of climatic variables in the region were analysed. The household-based questionnaire results were combined with climate modelling and the literature to determine the implications of climate change for regional agricultural production and food security. The results revealed that local knowledge and climate model data strongly concur on regional climate changes. Furthermore, the region is highly likely to experience increased warming and decreased precipitation at varying magnitudes. The shifts in climate trends and patterns are anticipated to greatly impact agricultural production, affecting livelihoods and hampering food security efforts. Recommendations include adopting context-specific measures and tailored strategies for enhancing resilience throughout the entire region.

The central highlands of Kenya play a vital role in supporting agricultural activities and sustaining the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Despite its crucial role, the region faces substantial environmental challenges like soil erosion and land degradation, necessitating the adoption of sustainable land management practices. The aim of this study was to investigate the determinants of the adoption of Soil and Water Conservation Practices (SWCPs) among smallholder farmers in central Kenya. Primary data was collected from three administrative wards of Tharaka Nithi County (TNC) using 150 semi-structured household (HH) questionnaires, Key Informant Interviews (KII), and field observations. STATA and Microsoft Office Excel software were used to analyse the HH survey data, using descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, and the binary logistic regression model. Qualitative data from the KII was analysed through synthesized text summaries. The results show that 65.33 % of the respondents adopted SWCPs on their farms, while 34.67 % did not at the time of our study. The study findings further revealed that farm size (β ​= ​0.641; p ​

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes alter the ecosystem structure and function, resulting in variations of the Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs). This study investigated the impacts of LULC changes on ESVs over 37 years in the Cherangany Hills Water Tower (CHWT) of Kenya. Landsat images from 1985 and 2022 were used to examine historical LULC changes in the CHWT. Supervised classification was carried out using the Random Forest (RF) classifier in R-Studio while ArcGIS desktop software was used for mapping to evaluate the LULC changes. Accuracy assessments were also conducted for each reference year. The estimation of ESVs was done using the Benefit Transfer Approach (BTA), employing modified local value coefficients. Six LULC types (Forest, Cropland, Grassland, Water bodies, Bareland, and Built-up area) were successfully classified, with overall accuracies of more than 92.5% and Kappa coefficients greater than 0.91. Our study findings showed an expansion in built-up areas (201.63%), cropland (36.78%), and water bodies (40.05%) whereas grassland, forest, and bareland experienced a reduction in their land areas by 28.26%, 13.38%, and 24.15% respectively between 1985 and 2022 in the CHWT. Consequently, there was an increase in the ESV of cropland while forest and grassland registered a decrease in their ESVs. Overall, the total ESV of the CHWT declined by 7.16% from 121.22 million United States Dollars (USD) in the year 1985 to 112.54 million USD in 2022. As for the individual ESVs, 15 out of the 17 individual Ecosystem Services (ES) registered negative changes in their ESVs. Food production and biological control were the two individual ES with positive ESV changes over the study period. There is a need to curb the current drivers of LULC changes within the water tower, especially the expansion of croplands, to stop further ecosystem degradation for optimum delivery of ES.