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This paper aims to develop new methodology for the Brazilian beef and dairy sectors incorporating different levels of productivities in the Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM), analyzing land use dynamics. Several datasets combinations were used and supply and demand equations were re-estimated. Historical database developed in this paper shows that the livestock sector increased productivity levels per hectare (in both beef and dairy sectors), being an important land releaser for other agricultural uses. Even in frontier regions, the occupation process was followed by productivity increase. When technologies were implemented in BLUM, results show that there were significant differences on land use in 2030, reducing land for pasture compared to BLUM previous version. In this sense, the study concludes that: using average productivity levels on modeling can overestimate pastureland; migration between technologies (lower to higher levels) will continue in the future; and, finally, market and agents’ behavior changes might be incorporated in land use economic models, so they can reproduce empirical evidences.

The elasticity of aggregate supply is one key to understanding the degree to which policy-induced increases in demand for biofuel feedstocks or agricultural CO2 offsets will result in higher prices or expanded supply. In this paper we report land supply elasticities for the United States and Brazil estimated directly from the observed changes in cropland and estimated changes in expected returns. The resulting aggregate implied land-use elasticities with respect to price are quite inelastic in the United States and more elastic in Brazil (0.007-0.029 and 0.382-0.895, respectively). However, with pasture land included in Brazil, implied elasticities become much less inelastic (0.007-0.245).

Orientador: Marcelo Pereira da Cunha Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica Resumo: Dentro do contexto do Acordo de Paris e a consequente Contribuição Nacionalmente Determinada (NDC), o Brasil firmou o compromisso de aumentar a participação de bioenergia na matriz energética nacional, com expectativa de aumento da produção de etanol para 54 bilhões de litros até 2030. Para atender este aumento de demanda, a cana-de-açúcar no estado de São Paulo deverá expandir principalmente sobre pastagens extensivas. A expansão da cana-de-açúcar sobre pastagens é um motivo de preocupação para o desempenho ambiental do etanol que pode ser afetado negativamente pelas emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) derivadas da mudança de uso da terra. Porém, estudos indicam que a partir da intensificação da atividade pecuária e consequente liberação de área, existem vantagens econômicas e ambientais da integração entre as atividades pecuária e sucroenergética. Com isso, o sistema de integração cana-pecuária surge como alternativa para as estratégias propostas na NDC de redução dos GEE, além de promover maior eficiência na produção pecuária e do setor de etanol. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar os impactos socioeconômicos de dois sistemas de intensificação da pecuária, com e sem integração do setor sucroenergético, sendo a economia agregada em 162 setores e 185 produtos. Com isso, foram avaliados: (i) Nível da produção setorial, (ii) Produto Interno Bruto ¿ PIB, (iii) Empregos e (iv) Remuneração do Fator Trabalho e Capital. Para tanto, foi desenvolvido e implementado um modelo de insumo-produto tomando como base o ano de 2011, captando os efeitos diretos e indiretos envolvidos em toda a cadeia produtiva, desagregada para as regiões do estado de São Paulo, Centro-Oeste e Resto do Brasil. Entre os resultados obtidos, destaca-se que o sistema de intensificação das atividades de pecuária e sucroenergética no estado de São Paulo, em comparação com o retrato da economia brasileira de 2011, gera riqueza para a economia brasileira, com aumento do PIB setorial e redução de emprego, com maior nível de transbordamento para as outras regiões. Como resultado do sistema integração (S2), nota-se aumento no valor da produção, queda no PIB setorial, geração de empregos, com maiores impactos para o estado de São Paulo. Porém, destaca-se a necessidade de subsídios à produção para fomentar as atividades de pecuária intensificada e integrada Abstract: Within the context of the Paris Agreement and the Consequent Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Brazil signed a commitment to increase bioenergy participation in national energy matrix, with an expected increase in ethanol production to 54 billion liters by 2030. To achieve this demand increase, sugarcane in São Paulo should expand mainly on extensive pastures. The expansion of sugarcane over pasture causes concern for the environmental performance of ethanol, that may be adversely affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use change. However, studies indicate that with livestock intensification and the consequent area release, there are economic and environmental advantages of the integration between livestock and sugarcane activities. With this, the sugarcane integration system emerges as an alternative to proposed strategies at NDC, to reduce GHG and, in addition, promote greater efficiency in livestock production and ethanol sector. The objective of this study was to evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of two scenarios of cattle intensification, with and without integration of sugarcane-based ethanol sector. The economy was aggregated in 162 sectors and 185 products. Impacts were quantified regarding to (i) the level of total output (production), (ii) Gross Domestic Product - GDP (iii) employment, and (iv) Labor and Capital Factors payments. In order to achieve the objective of this study, it was developed an input-output model based on the year 2011, capturing the direct and indirect effects along the entire production chain, disaggregated for the regions of São Paulo, Midwest and the Rest of Brazil. Among the results, the scenario of livestock and ethanol sectors intensification in the State of São Paulo, compared to the 2011 Brazilian economy, generates wealth for the Brazilian economy, with an increase in sectorial GDP and jobs reduction, with a higher level of overflow for other regions. As a result of the second scenario, there was observed an increase of output level, decrease in sectorial GDP and employment generation, with greater impacts for São Paulo state. However, for both scenarios there is a need for production subsidies to promote intensified and integrated livestock activities Mestrado Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos Mestra em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos CAPES 33003017