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The detection of gravitational waves from a binary neutron star merger by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (GW170817), along with the discovery of the electromagnetic counterparts of this gravitational wave event, ushered in a new era of multimessenger astronomy, providing the first direct evidence that BNS mergers are progenitors of short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Such events may also produce very-high-energy (VHE, > 100GeV) photons which have yet to be detected in coincidence with a gravitational wave signal. The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) is a next-generation VHE observatory which aims to be indispensable in this search, with an unparalleled sensitivity and ability to slew anywhere on the sky within a few tens of seconds. New observing modes and follow-up strategies are being developed for CTA to rapidly cover localization areas of gravitational wave events that are typically larger than the CTA field of view. This work will evaluate and provide estimations on the expected number of of gravitational wave events that will be observable with CTA, considering both on- and off-axis emission. In addition, we will present and discuss the prospects of potential follow-up strategies with CTA., Comment: Presented at the 38th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2023), 2023 (arXiv:2309.08219)

Machine learning models need to be continually updated or corrected to ensure that the prediction accuracy remains consistently high. In this study, we consider scenarios where developers should be careful to change the prediction results by the model correction, such as when the model is part of a complex system or software. In such scenarios, the developers want to control the specification of the corrections. To achieve this, the developers need to understand which subpopulations of the inputs get inaccurate predictions by the model. Therefore, we propose correction rule mining to acquire a comprehensive list of rules that describe inaccurate subpopulations and how to correct them. We also develop an efficient correction rule mining algorithm that is a combination of frequent itemset mining and a unique pruning technique for correction rules. We observed that the proposed algorithm found various rules which help to collect data insufficiently learned, directly correct model outputs, and analyze concept drift.

This paper addresses the communication issues when estimating hyper-gradients in decentralized federated learning (FL). Hyper-gradients in decentralized FL quantifies how the performance of globally shared optimal model is influenced by the perturbations in clients' hyper-parameters. In prior work, clients trace this influence through the communication of Hessian matrices over a static undirected network, resulting in (i) excessive communication costs and (ii) inability to make use of more efficient and robust networks, namely, time-varying directed networks. To solve these issues, we introduce an alternative optimality condition for FL using an averaging operation on model parameters and gradients. We then employ Push-Sum as the averaging operation, which is a consensus optimization technique for time-varying directed networks. As a result, the hyper-gradient estimator derived from our optimality condition enjoys two desirable properties; (i) it only requires Push-Sum communication of vectors and (ii) it can operate over time-varying directed networks. We confirm the convergence of our estimator to the true hyper-gradient both theoretically and empirically, and we further demonstrate that it enables two novel applications: decentralized influence estimation and personalization over time-varying networks., Comment: Under review

SHAP explanations aim at identifying which features contribute the most to the difference in model prediction at a specific input versus a background distribution. Recent studies have shown that they can be manipulated by malicious adversaries to produce arbitrary desired explanations. However, existing attacks focus solely on altering the black-box model itself. In this paper, we propose a complementary family of attacks that leave the model intact and manipulate SHAP explanations using stealthily biased sampling of the data points used to approximate expectations w.r.t the background distribution. In the context of fairness audit, we show that our attack can reduce the importance of a sensitive feature when explaining the difference in outcomes between groups while remaining undetected. More precisely, experiments performed on real-world datasets showed that our attack could yield up to a 90\% relative decrease in amplitude of the sensitive feature attribution. These results highlight the manipulability of SHAP explanations and encourage auditors to treat them with skepticism.

Fairwashing refers to the risk that an unfair black-box model can be explained by a fairer model through post-hoc explanation manipulation. In this paper, we investigate the capability of fairwashing attacks by analyzing their fidelity-unfairness trade-offs. In particular, we show that fairwashed explanation models can generalize beyond the suing group (i.e., data points that are being explained), meaning that a fairwashed explainer can be used to rationalize subsequent unfair decisions of a black-box model. We also demonstrate that fairwashing attacks can transfer across black-box models, meaning that other black-box models can perform fairwashing without explicitly using their predictions. This generalization and transferability of fairwashing attacks imply that their detection will be difficult in practice. Finally, we propose an approach to quantify the risk of fairwashing, which is based on the computation of the range of the unfairness of high-fidelity explainers., Comment: Accepted to NeurIPS 2021

Explaining the predictions made by complex machine learning models helps users to understand and accept the predicted outputs with confidence. One promising way is to use similarity-based explanation that provides similar instances as evidence to support model predictions. Several relevance metrics are used for this purpose. In this study, we investigated relevance metrics that can provide reasonable explanations to users. Specifically, we adopted three tests to evaluate whether the relevance metrics satisfy the minimal requirements for similarity-based explanation. Our experiments revealed that the cosine similarity of the gradients of the loss performs best, which would be a recommended choice in practice. In addition, we showed that some metrics perform poorly in our tests and analyzed the reasons of their failure. We expect our insights to help practitioners in selecting appropriate relevance metrics and also aid further researches for designing better relevance metrics for explanations., Comment: ICLR 2021

We present an interpretable companion model for any pre-trained black-box classifiers. The idea is that for any input, a user can decide to either receive a prediction from the black-box model, with high accuracy but no explanations, or employ a companion rule to obtain an interpretable prediction with slightly lower accuracy. The companion model is trained from data and the predictions of the black-box model, with the objective combining area under the transparency--accuracy curve and model complexity. Our model provides flexible choices for practitioners who face the dilemma of choosing between always using interpretable models and always using black-box models for a predictive task, so users can, for any given input, take a step back to resort to an interpretable prediction if they find the predictive performance satisfying, or stick to the black-box model if the rules are unsatisfying. To show the value of companion models, we design a human evaluation on more than a hundred people to investigate the tolerable accuracy loss to gain interpretability for humans., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures

Data cleansing is a typical approach used to improve the accuracy of machine learning models, which, however, requires extensive domain knowledge to identify the influential instances that affect the models. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that can suggest influential instances without using any domain knowledge. With the proposed method, users only need to inspect the instances suggested by the algorithm, implying that users do not need extensive knowledge for this procedure, which enables even non-experts to conduct data cleansing and improve the model. The existing methods require the loss function to be convex and an optimal model to be obtained, which is not always the case in modern machine learning. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel approach specifically designed for the models trained with stochastic gradient descent (SGD). The proposed method infers the influential instances by retracing the steps of the SGD while incorporating intermediate models computed in each step. Through experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately infer the influential instances. Moreover, we used MNIST and CIFAR10 to show that the models can be effectively improved by removing the influential instances suggested by the proposed method.

In conventional prediction tasks, a machine learning algorithm outputs a single best model that globally optimizes its objective function, which typically is accuracy. Therefore, users cannot access the other models explicitly. In contrast to this, multiple model enumeration attracts increasing interests in non-standard machine learning applications where other criteria, e.g., interpretability or fairness, than accuracy are main concern and a user may want to access more than one non-optimal, but suitable models. In this paper, we propose a K-best model enumeration algorithm for Support Vector Machines (SVM) that given a dataset S and an integer K>0, enumerates the K-best models on S with distinct support vectors in the descending order of the objective function values in the dual SVM problem. Based on analysis of the lattice structure of support vectors, our algorithm efficiently finds the next best model with small latency. This is useful in supporting users's interactive examination of their requirements on enumerated models. By experiments on real datasets, we evaluated the efficiency and usefulness of our algorithm., Comment: presented at 2019 ICML Workshop on Human in the Loop Learning (HILL 2019), Long Beach, USA

Black-box explanation is the problem of explaining how a machine learning model -- whose internal logic is hidden to the auditor and generally complex -- produces its outcomes. Current approaches for solving this problem include model explanation, outcome explanation as well as model inspection. While these techniques can be beneficial by providing interpretability, they can be used in a negative manner to perform fairwashing, which we define as promoting the false perception that a machine learning model respects some ethical values. In particular, we demonstrate that it is possible to systematically rationalize decisions taken by an unfair black-box model using the model explanation as well as the outcome explanation approaches with a given fairness metric. Our solution, LaundryML, is based on a regularized rule list enumeration algorithm whose objective is to search for fair rule lists approximating an unfair black-box model. We empirically evaluate our rationalization technique on black-box models trained on real-world datasets and show that one can obtain rule lists with high fidelity to the black-box model while being considerably less unfair at the same time., Comment: Accepted to ICML 2019

Auditing fairness of decision-makers is now in high demand. To respond to this social demand, several fairness auditing tools have been developed. The focus of this study is to raise an awareness of the risk of malicious decision-makers who fake fairness by abusing the auditing tools and thereby deceiving the social communities. The question is whether such a fraud of the decision-maker is detectable so that the society can avoid the risk of fake fairness. In this study, we answer this question negatively. We specifically put our focus on a situation where the decision-maker publishes a benchmark dataset as the evidence of his/her fairness and attempts to deceive a person who uses an auditing tool that computes a fairness metric. To assess the (un)detectability of the fraud, we explicitly construct an algorithm, the stealthily biased sampling, that can deliberately construct an evil benchmark dataset via subsampling. We show that the fraud made by the stealthily based sampling is indeed difficult to detect both theoretically and empirically., Comment: Accepted at the Special Track on AI for Social Impact (AISI) at AAAI2020

In this paper, we consider estimation of the conditional mode of an outcome variable given regressors. To this end, we propose and analyze a computationally scalable estimator derived from a linear quantile regression model and develop asymptotic distributional theory for the estimator. Specifically, we find that the pointwise limiting distribution is a scale transformation of Chernoff's distribution despite the presence of regressors. In addition, we consider analytical and subsampling-based confidence intervals for the proposed estimator. We also conduct Monte Carlo simulations to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator together with the analytical and subsampling confidence intervals. Finally, we apply the proposed estimator to predicting the net hourly electrical energy output using Combined Cycle Power Plant Data., Comment: This paper supersedes "On estimation of conditional modes using multiple quantile regressions" (Hirofumi Ohta and Satoshi Hara, arXiv:1712.08754)

In an ordinary feature selection procedure, a set of important features is obtained by solving an optimization problem such as the Lasso regression problem, and we expect that the obtained features explain the data well. In this study, instead of the single optimal solution, we consider finding a set of diverse yet nearly optimal solutions. To this end, we formulate the problem as finding a small number of solutions such that the convex hull of these solutions approximates the set of nearly optimal solutions. The proposed algorithm consists of two steps: First, we randomly sample the extreme points of the set of nearly optimal solutions. Then, we select a small number of points using a greedy algorithm. The experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm can approximate the solution set well. The results also indicate that we can obtain Lasso solutions with a large diversity., Comment: 14pages

Feature attribution methods, or saliency maps, are one of the most popular approaches for explaining the decisions of complex machine learning models such as deep neural networks. In this study, we propose a stochastic optimization approach for the perturbation-based feature attribution method. While the original optimization problem of the perturbation-based feature attribution is difficult to solve because of the complex constraints, we propose to reformulate the problem as the maximization of a differentiable function, which can be solved using gradient-based algorithms. In particular, stochastic optimization is well-suited for the proposed reformulation, and we can solve the problem using popular algorithms such as SGD, RMSProp, and Adam. The experiment on the image classification with VGG16 shows that the proposed method could identify relevant parts of the images effectively., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures

While several feature scoring methods are proposed to explain the output of complex machine learning models, most of them lack formal mathematical definitions. In this study, we propose a novel definition of the feature score using the maximally invariant data perturbation, which is inspired from the idea of adversarial example. In adversarial example, one seeks the smallest data perturbation that changes the model's output. In our proposed approach, we consider the opposite: we seek the maximally invariant data perturbation that does not change the model's output. In this way, we can identify important input features as the ones with small allowable data perturbations. To find the maximally invariant data perturbation, we formulate the problem as linear programming. The experiment on the image classification with VGG16 shows that the proposed method could identify relevant parts of the images effectively., Comment: presented at 2018 ICML Workshop on Human Interpretability in Machine Learning (WHI 2018), Stockholm, Sweden

We propose an estimation method for the conditional mode when the conditioning variable is high-dimensional. In the proposed method, we first estimate the conditional density by solving quantile regressions multiple times. We then estimate the conditional mode by finding the maximum of the estimated conditional density. The proposed method has two advantages in that it is computationally stable because it has no initial parameter dependencies, and it is statistically efficient with a fast convergence rate. Synthetic and real-world data experiments demonstrate the better performance of the proposed method compared to other existing ones., Comment: 26 pages, 3 figures

Two-sample feature selection is the problem of finding features that describe a difference between two probability distributions, which is a ubiquitous problem in both scientific and engineering studies. However, existing methods have limited applicability because of their restrictive assumptions on data distributoins or computational difficulty. In this paper, we resolve these difficulties by formulating the problem as a sparsest $k$-subgraph problem. The proposed method is nonparametric and does not assume any specific parametric models on the data distributions. We show that the proposed method is computationally efficient and does not require any extra computation for model selection. Moreover, we prove that the proposed method provides a consistent estimator of features under mild conditions. Our experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the current method with regard to both accuracy and computation time., Comment: 32 pages

We propose a method for finding alternate features missing in the Lasso optimal solution. In ordinary Lasso problem, one global optimum is obtained and the resulting features are interpreted as task-relevant features. However, this can overlook possibly relevant features not selected by the Lasso. With the proposed method, we can provide not only the Lasso optimal solution but also possible alternate features to the Lasso solution. We show that such alternate features can be computed efficiently by avoiding redundant computations. We also demonstrate how the proposed method works in the 20 newsgroup data, which shows that reasonable features are found as alternate features., Comment: Presented at NIPS 2016 Workshop on Interpretable Machine Learning in Complex Systems