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The Dynamic Modified Stochastic p-Median Problem (DMS-p-MP) is an important problem in supply chain network design, as it deals with the optimal location of facilities and the allocation of demand in a dynamic and uncertain environment. In this research paper, we propose a mixed-integer linear formulation for the DMS-p-MP, which captures the key features of the problem and allows for efficient solution methods. The DMS-p-MP adds two key features to the classical problem: (1) it considers the dynamic nature of the problem, where the demand is uncertain and changes over time, and (2) it allows for the modification of the facility locations over time, subject to a fixed number of modifications. The proposed model is using robust optimization in order to address the uncertainty of demand by allowing for the optimization of solutions that are not overly sensitive to small changes in the data or parameters. To manage the computational challenges presented by large-scale DMS-p-MP networks, a Lagrangian relaxation (LR) algorithm is employed. Our computational study in a real-life case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed formulation in solving the DMS p-Median Problem. According to the results, the number of opened and closed buildings remains unchanged as the time horizon increases. This is due to the periodic nature of our demand. This formulation can be applied to real-world problems, providing decision-makers with an effective tool to optimize their supply chain network design in a dynamic and uncertain environment., Comment: 30 pages, 6 figures, 14 tables

In recent years, recycling and disposal of end-of-life (EOL) electronic products has attracted considerable attention in response to concerns over resource recovery and environmental impacts of electronic waste (e-waste). In many countries, legislation to make manufacturers responsible for taking e-waste at the end of their useful lives either has been adopted or is being considered. In this paper, by capturing different stages in the life-cycle of EOL electronic products (or, e-waste) generated from private or small-entity users, we develop two different formulations of a reverse logistics network, i.e. system-optimum model and user-optimum model, to estimate both economic and environmental effects of take-back legislation. In this system, e-waste is collected through user drop-off at designated collection sites. While we study the whole reverse logistics network associated with recycling and remanufacturing of e-waste in the system-optimum model and obtain an optimum solution from the policy maker's perspective, we split the logistics network into two distinct parts in the user-optimum model in order to derive an optimum solution from the users' standpoint. Implementing the proposed models on an illustrative example shows how they are capable of estimating the economic and environmental impacts of take-back legislation in various stages of e-waste's life-cycle., Comment: 42 pages, 7 figures, 11 tables

Background: To curb the opioid epidemic, legislation regulating the amount of opioid prescriptions covered by Medicaid (Title XIX of the Social Security Act Medical Assistance Program) came into effect in May 2018 in South Carolina. Methods: We employ a classification system based on distance and disparity between dispensers, prescribers, and patients and conduct an ARIMA analysis on each class and without any class to examine the effect of the legislation on opioid prescriptions, considering secular trends and autocorrelation. The study also compares trends in benzodiazepine prescriptions as a control. Results: The proposed classification system clusters each transaction into 16 groups based on the location of the stakeholders. These categories were found to have different prescription volume levels, with the highest group averaging 96.50 in daily MME (95% CI [63.43, 99.57]) and the lowest 37.78 (95% CI [37.38,38.18]). The ARIMA models show a decrease in overall prescription volume from 53.68 (95% CI [53.33,54.02]) to 51.09 (95% CI [50.74,51.44]) and varying impact across the different classes. Conclusion: Policy was effective in reducing opioid prescription volume overall. However, the volume of prescriptions filled where the prescribing doctor is located more than 1000 miles away from the patient went up, hinting at the possibility of doctor shopping., Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables

A large amount of data is generated during the operation of a railcar fleet, which can easily lead to dimensional disaster and reduce the resiliency of the railcar network. To solve these issues and offer predictive maintenance, this research introduces a hybrid fault diagnosis expert system method that combines density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) and principal component analysis (PCA). Firstly, the DBSCAN method is used to cluster categorical data that are similar to one another within the same group. Secondly, PCA algorithm is applied to reduce the dimensionality of the data and eliminate redundancy in order to improve the accuracy of fault diagnosis. Finally, we explain the engineered features and evaluate the selected models by using the Gain Chart and Area Under Curve (AUC) metrics. We use the hybrid expert system model to enhance maintenance planning decisions by assigning a health score to the railcar system of the North American Railcar Owner (NARO). According to the experimental results, our expert model can detect 96.4% of failures within 50% of the sample. This suggests that our method is effective at diagnosing failures in railcars fleet., Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables

Hierarchical time series demands exist in many industries and are often associated with the product, time frame, or geographic aggregations. Traditionally, these hierarchies have been forecasted using top-down, bottom-up, or middle-out approaches. The question we aim to answer is how to utilize child-level forecasts to improve parent-level forecasts in a hierarchical supply chain. Improved forecasts can be used to considerably reduce logistics costs, especially in e-commerce. We propose a novel multi-phase hierarchical (MPH) approach. Our method involves forecasting each series in the hierarchy independently using machine learning models, then combining all forecasts to allow a second phase model estimation at the parent level. Sales data from MonarchFx Inc. (a logistics solutions provider) is used to evaluate our approach and compare it to bottom-up and top-down methods. Our results demonstrate an 82-90% improvement in forecast accuracy using the proposed approach. Using the proposed method, supply chain planners can derive more accurate forecasting models to exploit the benefit of multivariate data., Comment: 25 pages, 2 figures, 8 tables

A major part of the balance sheets of the largest US banks consists of credit card portfolios. Hence, managing the charge-off rates is a vital task for the profitability of the credit card industry. Different macroeconomic conditions affect individuals' behavior in paying down their debts. In this paper, we propose an expert system for loss forecasting in the credit card industry using macroeconomic indicators. We select the indicators based on a thorough review of the literature and experts' opinions covering all aspects of the economy, consumer, business, and government sectors. The state of the art machine learning models are used to develop the proposed expert system framework. We develop two versions of the forecasting expert system, which utilize different approaches to select between the lags added to each indicator. Among 19 macroeconomic indicators that were used as the input, six were used in the model with optimal lags, and seven indicators were selected by the model using all lags. The features that were selected by each of these models covered all three sectors of the economy. Using the charge-off data for the top 100 US banks ranked by assets from the first quarter of 1985 to the second quarter of 2019, we achieve mean squared error values of 1.15E-03 and 1.04E-03 using the model with optimal lags and the model with all lags, respectively. The proposed expert system gives a holistic view of the economy to the practitioners in the credit card industry and helps them to see the impact of different macroeconomic conditions on their future loss., Comment: 45 pages, 16 figures, 16 tables, submitted to Expert Systems with Applications Journal

While executives emphasize that human resources (HR) are a firm's biggest asset, the level of research attention devoted to planning talent pipelines for complex global organizational environments does not reflect this emphasis. Numerous challenges exist in establishing human resource management strategies aligned with strategic operations planning and growth strategies. We generalize the problem of managing talent from a supply-demand standpoint through a resource acquisition lens, to an industrial business case where an organization recruits for multiple roles given a limited pool of potential candidates acquired through a limited number of recruiting channels. In this context, we develop an innovative analytical model in a stochastic environment to assist managers with talent planning in their organizations. We apply supply chain concepts to the problem, whereby individuals with specific competencies are treated as unique products. We first develop a multi-period mixed integer nonlinear programming model and then exploit chance-constrained programming to a linearized instance of the model to handle stochastic parameters, which follow any arbitrary distribution functions. Next, we use an empirical study to validate the model with a large global manufacturing company, and demonstrate how the proposed model can effectively manage talents in a practical context. A stochastic analysis on the implemented case study reveals that a reasonable improvement is derived from incorporating randomness into the problem.