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Compound extreme events pose more grave threats to human health, the natural environment, and socioeconomic systems than do individual extreme events. However, the drivers and spatiotemporal change characteristics of compound extreme events under climate transition remain poorly understood, especially in the arid region of Northwest China. This study examined the spatiotemporal change characteristics and driving mechanisms of extreme temperature and precipitation compound events in Northwest China based on data from 86 national meteorological stations and 11 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6. The results indicated that (1) the frequency values of heat extremity–dry (1.60/10a) and heat extremity–heavy precipitation (0.60/10a) events increased from 1961 to 2020, and showed a faster uptrend after 1990 than before. (2) Under four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, there is also the likelihood of an upward trend in heat extremity–dry and heat extremity–heavy precipitation events in Northwest China by the end of 21 century, especially under SSP585, with probability values of 1.70/10a and 1.00/10a, respectively. (3) A soil moisture deficit leads to decreased evaporation and increased sensible heat by reduction in the soil–atmosphere exchange; the non-adiabatic heating process leads to a higher frequency of hot days. This land–air interaction feedback mechanism is a significant driver of heat extremity–dry events in Northwest China. (4) In the Northwest China region, the warmer trend surpasses the wetter trend, contributing to increased specific humidity, and the vapor pressure deficit may lead to an increasing frequency of extreme precipitation, consequently increasing heat extremity–heavy precipitation events. These results provide new insights for the understanding of compound extreme events, in order to cope with their risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming exacerbates the degradation of the mountain cryosphere, including glacier retreat, permafrost degradation, and snow cover reduction. These changes dramatically alter the local and downstream hydrological regime, posing significant threats to basin-scale water resource management and sustainable development. However, this issue is still not adequately addressed, particularly in mountainous catchments. We developed an integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, the FLEX-Cryo model, to comprehensively consider glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrological processes. Taking the mountainous Hulu catchment located in the upper Heihe River of China as a case study, we utilized the state-of-the-art climate change projection data under two scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate the future changes in the mountainous cryosphere and their impacts on hydrology. Our findings showed that under the medium-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), by the end of the 21st century, the glacier will completely melt out around the years 2051 and 2045, respectively. The annual maximum snow water equivalent is projected to decrease by 41.4 % and 46.0 %, while the duration of snow cover will be reduced by approximately 45 and 70 d. The freeze onset of seasonally frozen soil is expected to be delayed by 10 and 22 d, while the thaw onset of permafrost is likely to advance by 19 and 32 d. Moreover, the maximum freeze depth of seasonally frozen soil is projected to decrease by 5.2 and 10.9 cm per decade, and the depth of the active layer will increase by 8.2 and 15.5 cm per decade. Regarding hydrology, catchment total runoff exhibits a decreasing trend, and the tipping point of glacier runoff occurs approximately between 2019 and 2021. Permafrost degradation will likely reduce the duration of low runoff in the early thawing season; the discontinuous baseflow recession gradually transitions into linear recessions, and the baseflow increases. Our results highlight the significant changes expected in the mountainous cryosphere and hydrology in the future. These findings enhance our understanding of cold-region hydrological processes and have the potential to assist local and downstream water resource management in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming exacerbates the degradation of the mountain cryosphere, including glacier retreat, reduction in snow cover area, and permafrost degradation. These changes dramatically alter the local and downstream hydrological regime, posing significant threats to basin-scale water resource management and sustainable development. However, there is still a lack of systematic research that evaluates the variation of cryospheric elements in mountainous catchments and their impacts on future hydrology and water resources. In this study, we developed an integrated cryospheric-hydrologic model, referred to as the FLEX-Cryo model. This model comprehensively considers glaciers, snow cover, frozen soil, and their dynamic impacts on hydrological processes in the mountainous Hulu catchment located in the Upper Heihe river of China. We utilized the state-of-the-art climate change projection data from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate the future changes in the mountainous cryosphere and their impacts on hydrology. Our findings showed that the two glaciers in the Hulu catchment will completely melt out around the years 2045–2051. By the end of the 21st century, the annual maximum snow water equivalent is projected to decrease by 41.4 % and 46.0 %, while the duration of snow cover will be reduced by approximately 45 and 70 days. The freeze onset of seasonal frozen soil is expected to be delayed by 10 and 22 days, while the thaw onset of permafrost is likely to advance by 19 and 32 days. Moreover, the maximum freeze depth of seasonal frozen soil is projected to decrease by 5.2 and 10.9 cm per decade, and the depth of the active layer will increase by 8.2 and 15.5 cm per decade. Regarding hydrology, runoff exhibits a decreasing trend until the complete melt-out of glaciers, resulting in a total runoff decrease of 15.6 % and 18.1 %. Subsequently, total runoff shows an increasing trend, primarily due to an increase in precipitation. Permafrost degradation causes the duration of low runoff in the early thawing season to decrease, and the discontinuous baseflow recession gradually transitions into linear recessions, leading to an increase in baseflow. Our results highlight the significant changes expected in the mountainous cryosphere and hydrology in the future. These findings enhance our understanding of cold-region hydrological processes and have the potential to assist local and downstream water resource management in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased attention directed at frozen soil hydrology has been prompted by climate change. In spite of an increasing number of field measurements and modeling studies, the impact of frozen soil on hydrological processes at the catchment scale is still unclear. However, frozen soil hydrology models have mostly been developed based on a bottom-up approach, i.e., by aggregating prior knowledge at the pixel scale, which is an approach notoriously suffering from equifinality and data scarcity. Therefore, in this study, we explore the impact of frozen soil at the catchment scale, following a top-down approach, implying the following sequence: expert-driven data analysis → qualitative perceptual model → quantitative conceptual model → testing of model realism. The complex mountainous Hulu catchment, northeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), was selected as the study site. First, we diagnosed the impact of frozen soil on catchment hydrology, based on multi-source field observations, model discrepancy, and our expert knowledge. The following two new typical hydrograph properties were identified: the low runoff in the early thawing season (LRET) and the discontinuous baseflow recession (DBR). Second, we developed a perceptual frozen soil hydrological model to explain the LRET and DBR properties. Third, based on the perceptual model and a landscape-based modeling framework (FLEX-Topo), a semi-distributed conceptual frozen soil hydrological model (FLEX-Topo-FS) was developed. The results demonstrate that the FLEX-Topo-FS model can represent the effect of soil freeze–thaw processes on hydrologic connectivity and groundwater discharge and significantly improve hydrograph simulation, including the LRET and DBR events. Furthermore, its realism was confirmed by alternative multi-source and multi-scale observations, particularly the freezing and thawing front in the soil, the lower limit of permafrost, and the trends in groundwater level variation. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first report of LRET and DBR processes in a mountainous frozen soil catchment. The FLEX-Topo-FS model is a novel conceptual frozen soil hydrological model which represents these complex processes and has the potential for wider use in the vast QTP and other cold mountainous regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]