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2. LESS HELP FROM THE GRASS ROOTS State and local governments will rein in spending as their budget surpluses turn to deficits. But after a slow first quarter, exports will keep the economy rising.
3. SURPRISING HELP FROM THE CRASH Black Monday dampened an economy that was in danger of overheating. FORTUNE's 18-month forecast: a brief slowdown followed by sturdy growth.
4. WHERE DOES THE U.S. GO FROM HERE? It depends on what Washington does. Cutting the budget deficit, as Margaret Thatcher says, is "the most important single thing." Close behind: low interest rates and a floating dollar.
5. HIGHER PROFITS LIE AHEAD Investors can count on another year of slow but decent economic growth, though an uptick in inflation may rattle some nerves.
6. SURPRISE: FASTER GROWTH LIES AHEAD FORTUNE's 18-month forecast: Look past today's austere economic landscape. Business spending and the turn in trade will generate steady growth after the spring.
7. IS SLOW GROWTH SO TERRIBLE? Profits will be down, inflation up. But debt will grow more slowly, and interest rates won't rise. Moderation has its virtues.
8. HEADING FOR THE LONGEVITY RECORD FORTUNE's forecast for the next 18 months: Slow growth in this year's first half has set the pace for the lengthiest expansion in U.S. peacetime history. What will provide the energy? Not the government but ...
9. WHAT THE FORECAST MEANS FOR 16 INDUSTRIES The going will get tougher for many U.S. industries, among them cars and airlines. But computers will bounce back a bit, and apparel could make money for a change.
10. HOLD THE BUBBLY: GROWTH WILL SLOW.
11. THE RECOVERY WILL KEEP ITS COOL FORTUNE's forecast for the next 18 months: Growth will be slow, but consumer and government spending will help make the expansion one of the longest ever. Inflation and unemployment will rise just a bit, and interest ...
12. WHAT THE FORECAST * MEANS FOR 16 INDUSTRIES Slow growth notwithstanding, many U.S. industries -- among them autos, airlines, and appliances -- can look forward to strong sales. But for computers and electronics, it's a downer.
13. WHAT TAX REFORMS AND BUDGET CUTS WILL BRING At first the economy's growth will slow, raising the risk of a minor recession. But the outlook for the long run is a good deal brighter than it was early last month.
14. WHAT TAX REFORMS AND BUDGET CUTS WILL BRING At first the economy's growth will slow, raising the risk of a minor recession. But the outlook for the long run is a good deal brighter than it was early last month.
15. SLOW BUT STEADY GLOBAL GROWTH WILL KEEP THE GOOD TIMES ROLLING.
16. MILD SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH A-HEAD- ECONOMIC PLUS, ELECTION MINUS.
17. THE PRESSURE IS COMING OFF INTEREST RATES -- UNTIL NEXT YEAR.
18. RISING FACTORY PRODUCTIVITY IS GIVING THE EXPANSION ROOM TO RUN.
19. THERE'S PLENTY OF POWER IN THE MARKETS FOR CAPITAL GOODS.
20. NOW THE WORRY IS TOO MUCH GROWTH Businesses could get carried away with capital spending plans, producing a boom-and-bust cycle. They should follow consumers, who are lightening up on outlays.
21. A SMALL BUG IN THE PROFIT PROGRAM Corporate profits dropped unexpectedly in the fourth quarter as productivity took a nose dive. But they are likely to recover, and should hit record levels next year.
22. DON'T BE ALARMED BY SLOW GROWTH Homebuilding will pick up a bit this spring, and the improving trade balance will supply long-term strength. So business can work off excess inventory without big trouble.
23. INTEREST RATES: NO BIG CHANGES Fine-tuning has made the Fed look jittery, but Chairman Greenspan remains a staunch inflation fighter. Rates will rebound early next year after dipping this spring.
24. HERE COMES THE PAY PACKET PRICE PUSH Inflation is about to replace recession at the top of the worry list. Wage increases have lagged behind the CPI over the past year, and workers are eager to catch up.
25. WHO'S AFRAID OF INVENTORIES? The fourth-quarter bulge provoked more recession jitters than it should have. Economic growth will indeed be weak now, but it will be back on track by midyear.
26. A ROUSING START FOR THE NEW YEAR Consumers may be chastened, but they have survived the crash in pretty good spirits. And a show of strength by central banks makes the dollar look more secure.
27. CRAWLING OUT OF THE TRADE TUNNEL Based on physical volume, the deficit turned long ago. Now the combination of a weak dollar and lean manufacturers will finally set the dollar balance on the right path.
28. INTEREST RATES: EDGING DOWN The Federal Reserve is nursing the post-crash economy, and credit demands are ebbing. But with inflation still lurking, there are limits to easy money.
29. A GENTLE WARNING FOR OPTIMISTS As the Fed chairman says, the economy is still healthy. But consumers are tapped out for now. Some retailers may be in for a less than merry Christmas.
30. FORTUNE FORECAST IS THE DOLLAR TOO HIGH -- OR TOO LOW? Some respected mavericks think it's already undervalued, but most economists say it has further to slide.
31. THE GLOBAL RECOVERY IS LOSING ITS OOMPH U.S. imports have fueled much of the recent economic growth among the major industrial nations. Now it's time for somebody else -- namely Japan and West Germany -- to take up the slack.
32. WHAT THE FORECAST MEANS FOR 16 INDUSTRIES The going will get tougher for many U.S. industries, among them cars and airlines. But computers will bounce back a bit, and apparel could make money for a change.
33. HOLD THE BUBBLY: GROWTH WILL SLOW.
34. THE RECOVERY WILL KEEP ITS COOL FORTUNE's forecast for the next 18 months: Growth will be slow, but consumer and government spending will help make the expansion one of the longest ever. Inflation and unemployment will rise just a bit, and interest ...
35. WHAT THE FORECAST * MEANS FOR 16 INDUSTRIES Slow growth notwithstanding, many U.S. industries — among them autos, airlines, and appliances — can look forward to strong sales. But for computers and electronics, it's a downer.
36. HALF SPEED AHEAD FOR THE LONG HAUL.
37. SLOWER GROWTH WILL KEEP THE RECOVERY ROLLING.
38. A LOT OF KICK IN THE RECOVERY'S SECOND LEG.
39. FORTUNE FORECAST.
40. THE NEXT 18 MONTHS.
41. Business Roundup.
42. HIGHER PROFITS LIE AHEAD.
43. HEADING FOR THE LONGEVITY RECORD FORTUNE's forecast for the next 18 months: Slow growth in this year's first half has set the pace for the lengthiest expansion in U.S. peacetime history. What will provide the energy? Not the government but ...
44. FORTUNE FORECAST THEY'RE UPBEAT IN THE EXECUTIVE SUITE Despite mild anxiety about inflation and the forthcoming election, business is buoyed by the export boom and counting on a couple more years of economic growth.
45. FORTUNE FORECAST A-HEAD- A PLEASING PICKUP IN PROFITS They lagged through two prosperous years, but now there's good news. Managers and investors can look for rising earnings and margins through the middle of 1989.
46. HOW SLOW WILL THEY GROW? U.S. policymakers wonder why Germany and Japan can't generate more steam. But look closely. Their domestic demand is rising -- in Japan's case, at a fast clip.
47. FORTUNE FORECAST INFLATION WILL TAKE A TURN FOR THE WORSE Watch out for sharper rises in the cost of labor, imports, and consumer goods next year. But the Federal Reserve Board will stay calm, and so should you.
48. FORTUNE FORECAST DON'T OVERESTIMATE THE GROWTH AHEAD Despite the robust first half, business has to work off an inventory bloat before it can reap the benefits of stronger exports and capital spending.
49. FORTUNE FORECAST THE TASK AHEAD FOR ALAN GREENSPAN The new Fed chairman may favor growth at first. After the economy picks up, he will have to show he can fight inflation, defend the dollar -- and avoid recession.
50. FORTUNE FORECAST THE ECONOMY WILL TOUGH IT OUT The turnaround in trade and stronger capital goods spending will bolster growth in the months ahead. Neither inflation nor interest rates are likely to get out of hand.
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