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Multi-dimensional and overlapping Nexus challenges affect many parts of rural sub-Saharan Africa. More than 90% of cropland is rainfed, less than one third of households have electricity at home, more than 15% of people report insufficient food intake and more than 40% of people live below the poverty line. Climate change impacts on vulnerable systems with limited adaptive capacity and strong population growth are increasing the magnitude of the challenge. As a result, there is a strong need for multi-level, multi-sector interventions (from national policies to regional/river basin-scale planning, to local planning and investment). To implement such actions, it is key to assess solutions (technology and investment) and appraise their feasibility and implementation potential (from both a policy and a financial point of view). In this study, we soft-link bottom-up process-based water and energy demand and techno-economic infrastructure assessment models into a multi-node, national Nexus-extended Integrated Assessment Model (MESSAGEix-Nexus) for supply and investment assessment. Based on the integrated modelling, we obtain an understanding of the role of an explicit consideration of (productive) energy access jointly with Water-Agriculture-Food interlinkages for rural Nexus infrastructure requirements, investment, and sustainable development objectives. This demonstrates how climate impacts and water and energy needs affect each other and jointly shape infrastructure and investment pathways. Then, by linking technical models with business models analysis, we are able to assess feasibility of implementation and appraise which are the key micro and macro determinants to ensure feasibility, investment, and uptake of small-scale Nexus infrastructure, crucial for rural development and adaptation to changing climate conditions. Altogether, our research demonstrates how national-scale integrated modelling with an explicit focus on Nexus interlinkages allows for assessing loca

Replication data for the LEAP-RE RE4AFAGRI Platform, code and user guide hosted on https://github.com/iiasa/RE4AFAGRI_platform. The current version (0.2) of the data repository contains input data to replicate: - Africa-wide analysis in WaterCROP - Zambia, Rwanda, Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria pilot country-studies in M-LED - Zambia pilot country-study in OnSSET and NEST

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires ensuring universal energy access. Yet, governments of low-income countries face significant budget constraints for the capital-intensive infrastructure required to reach the hundreds of millions of households and businesses without grid electricity. In this context, private investors are the key actors capable of channelling such large capital requirements. Compared to the previous decades, the 2010s witnessed a growing mobilization of private funding in the off-grid electricity access sector, including some success stories. Nonetheless, with less than ten years left until the SDGs horizon, off-grid companies systematically struggle to ensure the financial sustainability of projects, as the industry still seeks to demonstrate its maturity and profitability. In this paper, we critically review the main business approaches adopted by private decentralised electricity access service providers. The aim of the analysis is to identify the main drivers of risk and failure which have been hindering sectoral investment. We then propose and discuss four potential game-changing factors that could foster the next generation of private investment in decentralised electricity solutions: (i) anchor-businesses-community (ABC) models; (ii) the design of integrated business models centred around income generation; (iii) the growing role for “local” financiers; (iv) the securitization of assets. Our paper targets private infrastructure developers and financiers aiming at fostering investment in financially sustainable decentralised electricity access projects.

In rural sub-Saharan Africa – the global poverty hotspot – the vast majority of cropland is rainfed only, resulting in reduced and unstable yields. Smallholder farmers account for 80% of agricultural production but they have limited access to relevant services to support both commercial operations and their livelihoods: more than two-thirds of rural dwellers have no access to electricity (crucial for crop irrigation, processing, and storage) and about 40% have no access to clean water. Previous research has analysed integrated technological and resource management approaches to tackle these overlapping development gaps. To finance and implement such transformations in resource-constrained settings, it is now crucial to understand the business and investment implications, also considering the strong regional population growth and the increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Here, we lay out a research agenda that promotes the integration of multi-scale modelling excellence along the climate-water-renewable energy-agriculture-development Nexus and the creation of robust business models for private companies that can sustainably support private smallholder farmers of SSAin their effort to eradicate poverty and inequality. The proposed agenda is a cornerstone of the EC-H2020 project LEAP-RE RE4AFAGRI (“Renewable Energy for African Agriculture: Integrating Modelling Excellence and Robust Business Models”). In proposing the agenda, we highlight the importance of integrating energy access into the Nexus framework from both research and investment perspectives.

In spite of abundant generation potential, as of 2019 East Africa has an electricity access level of 36%, with over 140 million people without service. Here, a bottom-up geospatial model (OnSSET) is used to estimate least-cost pathways to universal access to electricity by 2030 for different consumption-tier objectives under three regional grid electricity generation mix scenarios. Results suggest median total required investments of $57 and $110 billion for guaranteeing basic (160 and 44 kWh/person/year in urban and rural areas) and moderate - i.e. including potential to enable some productive uses - (423 and 160 kWh/person/year) consumption for newly connected households by 2030, respectively. This corresponds to an average of $5.6 billion/year, and implies median capacity additions of 12.2 GW (59% on-grid, 37% mini-grids, and 4% standalone solutions). At least further $2.7 billion/year in generation capacity are required to satisfy the projected demand growth from already electrified consumers. A grid electricity scenario with 25% lower photovoltaic costs and a higher penetration of renewables reveals to be up to 10% cheaper and 46% less carbon-intensive, while also requiring less up-front investment. To achieve such objectives, investment must be channelled within an enabling policy environment, which we discuss.

Energy systems are rapidly transitioning towards decarbonization, thanks in part to innovative digital technologies and changing mobility demands. This open access book examines the decarbonization and digitalization transformation in the transport sector, with a particular focus on energy consumption. By studying historical trends and outlining future scenarios, the authors illustrate the evolution of energy consumption in the transport sector, compare alternative decarbonization strategies, and analyze digitalization trends and their effects on energy consumption. The book addresses a broad readership of both academics and professionals working in the energy and transport industries, as well as readers interested in the ongoing debate over energy, mobility and climate change.

This short open access book investigates the role of renewable energy in East Africa to provide policy-relevant inputs for the achievement of a cost-effective electrification process in the region. For each country, the authors review the current situation in the domestic power sector, adopt a GIS-based approach to plot renewable energy resources potential, and review currently planned projects and projects under development, as well as the key domestic renewables regulations. Based on such information, least-cost 100% electrification scenarios by 2030 are then modelled and comparative results over the required capacity additions and investment are reported and discussed. The authors also inquire into some of the key technological, economic, policy, cooperation, and financing challenges to the development of a portfolio of renewables to promote energy access in a sustainable way, including a discussion of the challenges and opportunities that might stem from the interaction between local RE potential and natural gas resources currently under development in the region. To conclude, policy recommendations based on the book’s results and targeted at international cooperation and development institutions, local policymakers, and private stakeholders in the region are elaborated.