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Background Although several clinical breast cancer risk models are used to guide screening and prevention, they have only moderate discrimination. Purpose To compare selected existing mammography artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model for prediction of 5-year risk. Materials and Methods This retrospective case-cohort study included data in women with a negative screening mammographic examination (no visible evidence of cancer) in 2016, who were followed until 2021 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Women with prior breast cancer or a highly penetrant gene mutation were excluded. Of the 324 009 eligible women, a random subcohort was selected, regardless of cancer status, to which all additional patients with breast cancer were added. The index screening mammographic examination was used as input for five AI algorithms to generate continuous scores that were compared with the BCSC clinical risk score. Risk estimates for incident breast cancer 0 to 5 years after the initial mammographic examination were calculated using a time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The subcohort included 13 628 patients, of whom 193 had incident cancer. Incident cancers in eligible patients (additional 4391 of 324 009) were also included. For incident cancers at 0 to 5 years, the time-dependent AUC for BCSC was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.62). AI algorithms had higher time-dependent AUCs than did BCSC, ranging from 0.63 to 0.67 (Bonferroni-adjusted P < .0016). Time-dependent AUCs for combined BCSC and AI models were slightly higher than AI alone (AI with BCSC time-dependent AUC range, 0.66-0.68; Bonferroni-adjusted P < .0016). Conclusion When using a negative screening examination, AI algorithms performed better than the BCSC risk model for predicting breast cancer risk at 0 to 5 years. Combined AI and BCSC models further improved prediction. © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article.

PurposesTo delineate operational changes in Kaiser Permanente Northern California breast care and evaluate the impact of these changes during the initial COVID-19 Shelter-in-Place period (SiP, 3/17/20-5/17/20).MethodsBy extracting data from institutional databases and reviewing electronic medical charts, we compared clinical and treatment characteristics of breast cancer patients diagnosed 3/17/20-5/17/20 to those diagnosed 3/17/19-5/17/2019. Outcomes included time from biopsy to consultation and treatment. Comparisons were made using Chi-square or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.ResultsFewer new breast cancers were diagnosed in 2020 during the SiP period than during a similar period in 2019 (n = 247 vs n = 703). A higher percentage presented with symptomatic disease in 2020 than 2019 (78% vs 37%, p

BackgroundUp to one of every six individuals diagnosed with one cancer will be diagnosed with a second primary cancer in their lifetime. Genetic factors contributing to the development of multiple primary cancers, beyond known cancer syndromes, have been underexplored.MethodsTo characterize genetic susceptibility to multiple cancers, we conducted a pan-cancer, whole-exome sequencing study of individuals drawn from two large multi-ancestry populations (6429 cases, 165,853 controls). We created two groupings of individuals diagnosed with multiple primary cancers: (1) an overall combined set with at least two cancers across any of 36 organ sites and (2) cancer-specific sets defined by an index cancer at one of 16 organ sites with at least 50 cases from each study population. We then investigated whether variants identified from exome sequencing were associated with these sets of multiple cancer cases in comparison to individuals with one and, separately, no cancers.ResultsWe identified 22 variant-phenotype associations, 10 of which have not been previously discovered and were significantly overrepresented among individuals with multiple cancers, compared to those with a single cancer.ConclusionsOverall, we describe variants and genes that may play a fundamental role in the development of multiple primary cancers and improve our understanding of shared mechanisms underlying carcinogenesis.

To identify rare variants associated with prostate cancer susceptibility and better characterize the mechanisms and cumulative disease risk associated with common risk variants, we conducted an integrated study of prostate cancer genetic etiology in two cohorts using custom genotyping microarrays, large imputation reference panels, and functional annotation approaches. Specifically, 11,984 men (6,196 prostate cancer cases and 5,788 controls) of European ancestry from Northern California Kaiser Permanente were genotyped and meta-analyzed with 196,269 men of European ancestry (7,917 prostate cancer cases and 188,352 controls) from the UK Biobank. Three novel loci, including two rare variants (European ancestry minor allele frequency < 0.01, at 3p21.31 and 8p12), were significant genome wide in a meta-analysis. Gene-based rare variant tests implicated a known prostate cancer gene (HOXB13), as well as a novel candidate gene (ILDR1), which encodes a receptor highly expressed in prostate tissue and is related to the B7/CD28 family of T-cell immune checkpoint markers. Haplotypic patterns of long-range linkage disequilibrium were observed for rare genetic variants at HOXB13 and other loci, reflecting their evolutionary history. In addition, a polygenic risk score (PRS) of 188 prostate cancer variants was strongly associated with risk (90th vs. 40th-60th percentile OR = 2.62, P = 2.55 × 10-191). Many of the 188 variants exhibited functional signatures of gene expression regulation or transcription factor binding, including a 6-fold difference in log-probability of androgen receptor binding at the variant rs2680708 (17q22). Rare variant and PRS associations, with concomitant functional interpretation of risk mechanisms, can help clarify the full genetic architecture of prostate cancer and other complex traits. SIGNIFICANCE: This study maps the biological relationships between diverse risk factors for prostate cancer, integrating different functional datasets to interpret and model genome-wide data from over 200,000 men with and without prostate cancer.See related commentary by Lachance, p. 1637.

Even distinct cancer types share biological hallmarks. Here, we investigate polygenic risk score (PRS)-specific pleiotropy across 16 cancers in European ancestry individuals from the Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging cohort (16,012 cases, 50,552 controls) and UK Biobank (48,969 cases, 359,802 controls). Within cohorts, each PRS is evaluated in multivariable logistic regression models against all other cancer types. Results are then meta-analyzed across cohorts. Ten positive and one inverse cross-cancer associations are found after multiple testing correction. Two pairs show bidirectional associations; the melanoma PRS is positively associated with oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer and vice versa, whereas the lung cancer PRS is positively associated with oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer, and the oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer PRS is inversely associated with lung cancer. Overall, we validate known, and uncover previously unreported, patterns of pleiotropy that have the potential to inform investigations of risk prediction, shared etiology, and precision cancer prevention strategies.

Deciphering the shared genetic basis of distinct cancers has the potential to elucidate carcinogenic mechanisms and inform broadly applicable risk assessment efforts. Here, we undertake genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and comprehensive evaluations of heritability and pleiotropy across 18 cancer types in two large, population-based cohorts: the UK Biobank (408,786 European ancestry individuals; 48,961 cancer cases) and the Kaiser Permanente Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging cohorts (66,526 European ancestry individuals; 16,001 cancer cases). The GWAS detect 21 genome-wide significant associations independent of previously reported results. Investigations of pleiotropy identify 12 cancer pairs exhibiting either positive or negative genetic correlations; 25 pleiotropic loci; and 100 independent pleiotropic variants, many of which are regulatory elements and/or influence cross-tissue gene expression. Our findings demonstrate widespread pleiotropy and offer further insight into the complex genetic architecture of cross-cancer susceptibility.

Mammographic density (MD) phenotypes are strongly associated with breast cancer risk and highly heritable. In this GWAS meta-analysis of 24,192 women, we identify 31 MD loci at P

Insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and insulin-like growth factor binding proteins (IGFBPs) have been implicated in the aetiology of several cancers. To better understand whether anthropometric, behavioural and sociodemographic factors may play a role in cancer risk via IGF signalling, we examined the cross-sectional associations of these exposures with circulating concentrations of IGFs (IGF-I and IGF-II) and IGFBPs (IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3). The Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group dataset includes individual participant data from 16,024 male controls (i.e. without prostate cancer) aged 22-89 years from 22 prospective studies. Geometric means of protein concentrations were estimated using analysis of variance, adjusted for relevant covariates. Older age was associated with higher concentrations of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 and lower concentrations of IGF-I, IGF-II and IGFBP-3. Higher body mass index was associated with lower concentrations of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2. Taller height was associated with higher concentrations of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 and lower concentrations of IGFBP-1. Smokers had higher concentrations of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2 and lower concentrations of IGFBP-3 than nonsmokers. Higher alcohol consumption was associated with higher concentrations of IGF-II and lower concentrations of IGF-I and IGFBP-2. African Americans had lower concentrations of IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 and Hispanics had lower IGF-I, IGF-II and IGFBP-3 than non-Hispanic whites. These findings indicate that a range of anthropometric, behavioural and sociodemographic factors are associated with circulating concentrations of IGFs and IGFBPs in men, which will lead to a greater understanding of the mechanisms through which these factors influence cancer risk.

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels have been used for detection and surveillance of prostate cancer (PCa). However, factors other than PCa-such as genetics-can impact PSA. Here we present findings from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of PSA in 28,503 Kaiser Permanente whites and 17,428 men from replication cohorts. We detect 40 genome-wide significant (P

IntroductionSex hormones have been implicated in the etiology of a number of diseases. To better understand disease etiology and the mechanisms of disease-risk factor associations, this analysis aimed to investigate the associations of anthropometric, sociodemographic and behavioural factors with a range of circulating sex hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin.MethodsStatistical analyses of individual participant data from 12,330 male controls aged 25-85 years from 25 studies involved in the Endogenous Hormones Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group. Analysis of variance was used to estimate geometric means adjusted for study and relevant covariates.ResultsOlder age was associated with higher concentrations of sex hormone-binding globulin and dihydrotestosterone and lower concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, free testosterone, androstenedione, androstanediol glucuronide and free estradiol. Higher body mass index was associated with higher concentrations of free estradiol, androstanediol glucuronide, estradiol and estrone and lower concentrations of dihydrotestosterone, testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, free testosterone, androstenedione and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate. Taller height was associated with lower concentrations of androstenedione, testosterone, free testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin and higher concentrations of androstanediol glucuronide. Current smoking was associated with higher concentrations of androstenedione, sex hormone-binding globulin and testosterone. Alcohol consumption was associated with higher concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, androstenedione and androstanediol glucuronide. East Asians had lower concentrations of androstanediol glucuronide and African Americans had higher concentrations of estrogens. Education and marital status were modestly associated with a small number of hormones.ConclusionCirculating sex hormones in men are strongly associated with age and body mass index, and to a lesser extent with smoking status and alcohol consumption.

The role of insulin-like growth factors (IGF) in prostate cancer development is not fully understood. To investigate the association between circulating concentrations of IGFs (IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2, and IGFBP-3) and prostate cancer risk, we pooled individual participant data from 17 prospective and two cross-sectional studies, including up to 10,554 prostate cancer cases and 13,618 control participants. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the ORs for prostate cancer based on the study-specific fifth of each analyte. Overall, IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-2, and IGFBP-3 concentrations were positively associated with prostate cancer risk (Ptrend all ≤ 0.005), and IGFBP-1 was inversely associated weakly with risk (Ptrend = 0.05). However, heterogeneity between the prospective and cross-sectional studies was evident (Pheterogeneity = 0.03), unless the analyses were restricted to prospective studies (with the exception of IGF-II, Pheterogeneity = 0.02). For prospective studies, the OR for men in the highest versus the lowest fifth of each analyte was 1.29 (95% confidence interval, 1.16-1.43) for IGF-I, 0.81 (0.68-0.96) for IGFBP-1, and 1.25 (1.12-1.40) for IGFBP-3. These associations did not differ significantly by time-to-diagnosis or tumor stage or grade. After mutual adjustment for each of the other analytes, only IGF-I remained associated with risk. Our collaborative study represents the largest pooled analysis of the relationship between prostate cancer risk and circulating concentrations of IGF-I, providing strong evidence that IGF-I is highly likely to be involved in prostate cancer development. Cancer Res; 76(8); 2288-300. ©2016 AACR.

UnlabelledA genome-wide association study (GWAS) of prostate cancer in Kaiser Permanente health plan members (7,783 cases, 38,595 controls; 80.3% non-Hispanic white, 4.9% African-American, 7.0% East Asian, and 7.8% Latino) revealed a new independent risk indel rs4646284 at the previously identified locus 6q25.3 that replicated in PEGASUS (N = 7,539) and the Multiethnic Cohort (N = 4,679) with an overall P = 1.0 × 10(-19) (OR, 1.18). Across the 6q25.3 locus, rs4646284 exhibited the strongest association with expression of SLC22A1 (P = 1.3 × 10(-23)) and SLC22A3 (P = 3.2 × 10(-52)). At the known 19q13.33 locus, rs2659124 (P = 1.3 × 10(-13); OR, 1.18) nominally replicated in PEGASUS. A risk score of 105 known risk SNPs was strongly associated with prostate cancer (P < 1.0 × 10(-8)). Comparing the highest to lowest risk score deciles, the OR was 6.22 for non-Hispanic whites, 5.82 for Latinos, 3.77 for African-Americans, and 3.38 for East Asians. In non-Hispanic whites, the 105 risk SNPs explained approximately 7.6% of disease heritability. The entire GWAS array explained approximately 33.4% of heritability, with a 4.3-fold enrichment within DNaseI hypersensitivity sites (P = 0.004).SignificanceTaken together, our findings of independent risk variants, ethnic variation in existing SNP replication, and remaining unexplained heritability have important implications for further clarifying the genetic risk of prostate cancer. Our findings also suggest that there may be much promise in evaluating understudied variation, such as indels and ethnically diverse populations.

ObjectivesWe examined the combined influence of race/ethnicity and neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) on short-term survival among women with uniform access to health care and treatment.MethodsUsing electronic medical records data from Kaiser Permanente Northern California linked to data from the California Cancer Registry, we included 6262 women newly diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. We analyzed survival using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression with follow-up through 2010.ResultsAfter consideration of tumor stage, subtype, comorbidity, and type of treatment received, non-Hispanic White women living in low-SES neighborhoods (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07, 1.52) and African Americans regardless of neighborhood SES (high SES: HR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.01, 2.07; low SES: HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.42, 2.50) had worse overall survival than did non-Hispanic White women living in high-SES neighborhoods. Results were similar for breast cancer-specific survival, except that African Americans and non-Hispanic Whites living in high-SES neighborhoods had similar survival.ConclusionsStrategies to address the underlying factors that may influence treatment intensity and adherence, such as comorbidities and logistical barriers, should be targeted at low-SES non-Hispanic White and all African American patients.

Background: Understanding the relative contributions of SARS-CoV-2 infection-induced and vaccine-induced seroprevalence is key to measuring overall population-level seroprevalence and help guide policy decisions. Methods: Using a series of six population-based cross-sectional surveys conducted among persons aged ≥7 years in a large health system with over 4.5 million members between May 2021 and April 2022, we combined data from the electronic health record (EHR), an electronic survey and SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody binding assay, to assess the relative contributions of infection and vaccination to population-level SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence. EHR and survey data were incorporated to determine spike antibody positivity due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination. We used sampling and non-response weighting to create population-level estimates. Results: We enrolled 4,319 persons over six recruitment waves. SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody seroprevalence increased from 83.3% (CI 77.0–88.9) in May 2021 to 93.5% (CI 89.5–97.5) in April 2022. By April 2022, 68.5% (CI 61.9–74.3) of the population was seropositive from COVID-19 vaccination only, 13.9% (10.7–17.9) from COVID-19 vaccination and prior diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection, 8.2% (CI 4.5–14.5) from prior diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection only and 2.9% (CI 1.1–7.6) from prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection only. We found high agreement (≥97%) between EHR and survey data for ascertaining COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection status. Conclusions: By April 2022, 93.5% of persons had detectable SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody, predominantly from COVID-19 vaccination. In this highly vaccinated population and over 18 months into the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 infection without COVID-19 vaccination was a small contributor to overall population-level seroprevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PurposeRe-examine association of fluoxetine and paroxetine with risk of testicular cancer noted in drug screening, with 4 years more follow-up and expanded study of these and other antidepressant drugs.MethodsIn the Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program in Northern California, 906 men with testicular cancer diagnosed August 1996-December 2010 were compared with 38,253 matched controls with race/ethnicity recorded regarding receipt of antidepressant drugs at least 2 years before diagnosis or control index date. Analyses emphasized duration of use and histological subgroups.ResultsWith control for race/ethnicity and use of other antidepressant drugs, odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for associations with testicular cancer were as follows: fluoxetine 1.22 (0.88-1.71), paroxetine 1.19 (0.78-1.83), and 1.21 (0.92-1.58) for all serotonin reuptake inhibitors. There was no statistically significant association with risk of all testicular cancers or their histological subtypes for any individual drug or for tricyclics or all antidepressants combined except for citalopram with all testicular cancers 2.55 (1.43-4.52) and those of mixed histology 4.36 (1.50-12.68) and nefazodone with embryonal cancers 9.79 (1.85-51.81). These could readily be chance findings in the context of the many analyses that were performed. Duration of use was not associated with risk of the drugs and drug groups with sufficient numbers of exposed cases for analysis.ConclusionsWe found little evidence to support a testicular carcinogenic effect of fluoxetine, paroxetine, or other antidepressant drugs, but a weakly positive association is not ruled out. The signals in prior screening may have been due to chance and/or uncontrolled confounding.

ObjectiveTo estimate ovarian and peritoneal cancer rates after hysterectomy with and without salpingo-oophorectomy for benign conditions.MethodsAll patients after hysterectomy for benign disease from 1988 to 2006 in Kaiser Permanente Northern California, an integrated health organization. Incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated.ResultsOf 56,692 patients, the majority (54%) underwent hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy; 7% had hysterectomy with unilateral salpingo-oophorectomy, and 39% had hysterectomy alone. There were 40 ovarian and eight peritoneal cancers diagnosed during follow-up. Median age at ovarian and peritoneal cancer diagnosis was 50 and 64 years, respectively. Age-standardized rates (per 100,000 person-years) of ovarian or peritoneal cancer were 26.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 16-37.5) for those with hysterectomy alone, 22.8 (95% CI 0.0-46.8) for hysterectomy and unilateral salpingo-oophorectomy, and 3.9 (95% CI 1.5-6.4) for hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy. Rates of ovarian cancer were 26.2 (95% CI 15.5-37) for those with hysterectomy alone, 17.5 (95% CI 0.0-39.1) for hysterectomy and unilateral salpingo-oophorectomy, and 1.7 (95% CI 0.4-3) for those with hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy. Compared with women undergoing hysterectomy alone, those receiving an unilateral salpingo-oophorectomy had a hazard ratio (HR) for ovarian cancer of 0.58 (95% CI 0.18-1.9) and those undergoing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy had an HR of 0.12 (95% CI 0.05-0.28).ConclusionsThe removal of both ovaries decreases the incidence of ovarian and peritoneal cancers. Removal of one ovary might also decrease the incidence of ovarian cancer but warrants further investigation.Level of evidenceII.

BackgroundFive-year breast cancer survival rates are lower among Hispanic and African-American women than among Non-Hispanic White women. Differences in breast cancer treatment likely play a role. Adjuvant hormonal therapies increase overall survival among women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer.MethodsWe examined racial/ethnic differences in use and duration of adjuvant hormonal therapy among 3,588 postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Extension Study. Women diagnosed with hormone receptor-positive localized or regional stage breast cancer after study enrollment were surveyed between September 2009 and August 2010 and asked to recall prior use and duration of adjuvant hormonal breast cancer therapy. ORs comparing self-reported use and duration with race/ethnicity (Hispanic, African-American, Asian/Pacific Islander vs. Non-Hispanic White) were estimated using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression.ResultsOf the 3,588 women diagnosed from 1994 to 2009; 3,039 (85%) reported any use of adjuvant hormonal therapy, and 67% of women reporting ever-use who were diagnosed before 2005 reported using adjuvant hormonal therapy for the optimal duration of 5 years or more. In adjusted analysis, no statistically significant differences in use or duration by race/ethnicity were observed.ConclusionsThis study did not find significant differences in use or duration of use of adjuvant hormonal therapy by race/ethnicity.ImpactFindings should be confirmed in other population-based samples, and potential reasons for discontinuation of therapy across all racial/ethnic groups should be explored. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 22(3); 365-73. ©2012 AACR.

The association of smoking with outcomes following breast cancer prognosis is not well understood. In a cohort study called Life After Cancer Epidemiology (LACE), 2,265 women diagnosed with breast cancer were followed for a median of 12 years. We used multivariable proportional-hazards models to determine whether smoking, assessed approximately two years post-diagnosis, was associated with risk of death among these women. We also undertook a systematic review of all cohort studies to date that have examined the association between smoking and breast cancer mortality. Compared with never smokers, women who were current smokers had a twofold higher rate of dying from breast cancer [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.01, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.27-3.18] and an approximately fourfold higher rate of dying from competing (non-breast cancer) causes (HR = 3.84, 95 % CI 2.50-5.89). Among seven studies that met the inclusion criteria in the systematic review, three studies and our own reported significantly increased risk of breast cancer death with current smoking. We found little evidence of an association between former smoking and breast cancer mortality (HR = 1.24, 95 % CI 0.94-1.64). Consistent with findings from our prospective observational study, the systematic review of seven additional studies indicates positive association of current smoking with breast cancer mortality, but weak association with former smoking. Women who smoke following breast cancer diagnosis and treatment are at higher risk of death both from breast cancer and other causes.

The opposing carcinogenic and antiestrogenic properties of tobacco smoke may explain why epidemiologic studies have not consistently reported positive associations for active smoking and breast cancer risk. A negative relation between mammographic density, a strong breast cancer risk factor, and active smoking would lend support for an antiestrogenic mechanism.We used multivariable linear regression to assess the associations of active smoking and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure with mammographic density in 799 pre- and early perimenopausal women in the Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation (SWAN).We observed that current active smoking was associated with 7.2% lower mammographic density, compared to never active smoking and no SHS exposure (p = 0.02). Starting to smoke before 18 years of age and having smoked ≥20 cigarettes/day were also associated with statistically significantly lower percent densities. Among nulliparous women having smoked ≥20 cigarettes/day was associated with 23.8% lower density, compared to having smoked ≤9 cigarettes/day (p